Temporal hierarchies are being increasingly used for forecasting purposes over the past years. They have been shown to produce accurate and coherent forecasts which are beneficial for enterprises. Reconciling forecasts of different aggregation levels to achieve coherence, supports aligned decisions between different organizational levels. Current research focuses on analytical reconciliation methods which have shown to be more beneficial than conventional Bottom-Up and Top-Down approaches. However, such methods rely on a number of assumptions, primarily due to estimation requirements. This work proposes a novel approach for forecasting with temporal hierarchies. It results in a non-linear reconciliation method inspired by the architecture of an encoder-decoder deep neural network. A trainable encoder combines base forecasts into the reconciled bottom level predictions, while a fixed, non-trainable decoder reconstructs the forecasts across all hierarchical levels. Two different reconciliation architectures are presented based on different optimization procedures. They both ensure coherence. This thesis suggests two alternative usages for the reconcilers. One, to replace analytical expressions and reconcile base forecasts produced by models such as Exponential Smoothing. Second, as a part of a deep neural architecture DTH-28, which mimics the general framework for forecasting with temporal hierarchies. The proposed framework outperforms established benchmarks on real data. Furthermore, this work discusses the general effect of coherence on forecast accuracy. Coherence affects accuracy in two ways. One as a regularizer and second as a stepwise function. Exploiting each usage offers different accuracy benefits.

[pt] Essa dissertação investiga as diversas relações travadas entre indígenas, africanos e seus descendentes na capitania do Rio de Janeiro no século XVIII. Para isso, busca-se compreender as tensões e negociações entre os projetos de domínio dos agentes coloniais e a presença de indígenas, africanos, afro-americanos e pardos, bem como compreender o complexo sistema de hierarquias sócio raciais vigente no Setecentos – e as transformações ocasionadas a partir da aplicação do Diretório dos Índios. As possibilidades de agência e reconstrução de identidades eram pautadas pelas condições de escravidão e liberdade, tornando-se fundamental a compreensão da dinâmica do tráfico transatlântico de escravizados e seus impactos no contexto colonial. Nesse sentido, os não brancos compartilhavam sistemas de opressão e discriminação, ainda que de formas, e em graus, distintos. O espaço físico e simbólico do sertão, pouco regulado pela Coroa portuguesa, oportunizou encontros e desencontros entre essas pessoas, conectando trajetórias e construindo laços de solidariedade, ou situações conflituosas. Por meio de uma série de etnografias do particular, esta pesquisa pretende traçar um panorama das oportunidades e relações possíveis entre os não brancos, à luz do arcabouço teórico-metodológico proporcionado pela Nova História Social e em conformidade com as Leis número 10.639/03 e número 11.645/08. / [en] This dissertation investigates the many relations between indigenous people, Africans, and their descendants during the Captaincy of Rio de Janeiro in the 18th century. To achieve this goal, it was necessary to comprehend the tensions and negotiations between the colonial agents domination project and the presence of indigenous people, Africans, Afro-americans, and brown people, while also comprehending the complex socio-racial hierarchy system in place during the 18th century – and the transformations caused by the implementation of The Indian Directorate Act. The possibilities for agency and identity reconstitution were based by conditions of slavery and freedom, making the dynamics of the transatlanctic slave trade and its impact on the colonial context a fundamental factor to be comprehended. In this regard, the non-whites shared oppression and discrimination systems, even if in varying forms and degrees. The physical and symbolic spaces of the brazilian backwoods, scarcely regulated by the Portuguese Crown, created opportunities for agreements and disagreements between those groups, connecting their trajectories and building bonds of solidarity, or conflict situations. By means of a series of ethnographies of the particular, this research intends to draw a panorama of the opportunities and possible relations between non-whites, in light of the theoretical-methodological framework provided by the New Social History Movement and in compliance to the brazillian laws no. 10.639/03 and no. 11/645/08.

<p>Although liberal attitudes toward homosexuality have been increasing in recent years, sexual minority youth continue to face bullying and isolation at school. Gay-straight alliances (GSAs) have recently emerged as a solution to this problem. While research demonstrates positive effects of GSAs, little is known about the specific processes through which GSAs work to improve the school climate. We must also consider that GSAs operate in high schools which function as their own bounded social worlds with unique sets of rules and social hierarchies. These hierarchies influence both gay and straight youth’s experiences, including who gets bullied, and who carries out the bullying. Using qualitative research methods, including semi-structured interviews with 50 students from 6 Windsor high schools, including 21 lesbian, gay, bisexual, bi-curious, pansexual and queer (LGBPQ) youth, this study explores these issues. I begin by examining how status hierarchies in high schools vary based on the size of the school and average parental income. In doing so, I argue that status hierarchies should be re-conceptualized from being thought of as simply vertical to accommodate multiple sources of status and varying competition. I then delve into an examination of how status and bullying are interconnected. Here, I find that for both gay and straight students, social networks work to prevent isolation as well as bullying. Bullying in high schools also takes on a situational nature, as bullying episodes often predominate in certain areas and in front of certain status group audiences. Finally, I explore how social networks intersect with gay-straight alliances in various social hierarchies, and how GSAs work as social networks that have a protective ability against bullying. I find that GSAs can work to improve school climate and challenge existing hierarchies, but this is tempered by the hierarchies in place. Implications for anti-bullying strategies are also discussed.</p> / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Le droit des organisations internationales a été le lieu d’une belle querelle d’école entre les détracteurs et les adeptes de la normativité relative. Il en va de même des rapports de systèmes, qui divisent la doctrine entre les monistes (en voie de disparition), les dualistes et les non-alignés. Aborder le thème du traitement du droit dérivé par les ordres juridiques internes c’est prendre le risque de s’égarer dans ces tourbillons doctrinaux. Si l’on accepte que le point de vue du juge interne est pertinent pour la détermination de la force normative du droit dérivé, on comprend que le premier débat semble dépassé : le juge admet que le droit institutionnel est du droit, qu’il soit obligatoire ou non. Se pose dès lors la question de la capacité de ce droit à être source de droits et obligations dans l’ordre interne. On remarque qu’à cette fin, l’ensemble des ordres juridiques examinés exige l’incorporation des actes institutionnels, mais aussi que les juges internes accordent de la place à des formes de reconnaissance des effets des actes institutionnels déconnectées de l’incorporation. Ces tendances convergentes démontrent à la fois que le clivage monisme/dualisme n’est pas décisif, mais aussi que la pensée dualiste ne reflète pas fidèlement les modalités d’interaction entre les ordres juridiques dans le monde pluraliste. La reconnaissance participe d’un principe de coordination et non pas de séparation des ordres juridiques, qui se prolonge par ailleurs dans les solutions aux conflits normatifs, ainsi que dans les modalités et les effets du contrôle, par les juges internes, des normes institutionnelles. / The law of international organisations has been the theatre of passionate academic debate between the detractors and the disciples of the relative normativity. The same can be said about the relations between the legal orders, which divide the doctrine into monists, dualists and non-aligned. Analysing the topic of the place of institutional law in domestic legal orders is taking the risk of losing one’s way in these doctrinal whirls. If we take for granted that the point of view of the domestic judge is relevant for appreciating the normative force of institutional law, we may say that the first debate seems outdated : the domestic judge recognizes that the law produced by international organisations is law, whether is binding or not. The following question is to what extent the norms thus produced may be source of rights and obligations in the internal legal orders. The entire range of legal orders examined requires for institutional law to be incorporated for that purpose. The domestic judges leave nonetheless the door opened to other forms for taking into account some of the legal effects of institutional acts. These convergent tendencies show both that the monist/dualist divide is immaterial for the legal status of these acts and that the dualist doctrine does not accurately reflect the modalities of interaction between the legal systems in the world of pluralism. The recognition of unincorporated legal norms, which triggers consequences in terms of conflict of norms and judicial review of institutional law, stands in favour of a model of coordination and not of separation of the legal orders.

In this thesis, we study advanced reasoning about dynamical systems in a logical framework -- the situation calculus. In particular, we consider promoting the efficiency of reasoning about action in the situation calculus from three different aspects. First, we propose a modified situation calculus based on the two-variable predicate logic with counting quantifiers. We show that solving the projection and executability problems via regression in such language are decidable. We prove that generally these two problems are co-NExpTime-complete in the modified language. We also consider restricting the format of regressable formulas and basic action theories (BATs) further to gain better computational complexity for reasoning about action via regression. We mention possible applications to formalization of Semantic Web services. Then, we propose a hierarchical representation of actions based on the situation calculus to facilitate development, maintenance and elaboration of very large taxonomies of actions. We show that our axioms can be more succinct, while still using an extended regression operator to solve the projection problem. Moreover, such representation has significant computational advantages. For taxonomies of actions that can be represented as finitely branching trees, the regression operator can sometimes work exponentially faster with our theories than it works with the BATs current situation calculus. We also propose a general guideline on how a taxonomy of actions can be constructed from the given set of effect axioms. Finally, we extend the current situation calculus with the order-sorted logic. In the new formalism, we add sort theories to the usual initial theories to describe taxonomies of objects. We then investigate what is the well-sortness for BATs under such framework. We consider extending the current regression operator with well-sortness checking and unification techniques. With the modified regression, we gain computational efficiency by terminating the regression earlier when reasoning tasks are ill-sorted and by reducing the search spaces for well-sorted objects. We also study that the connection between the order-sorted situation calculus and the current situation calculus.

Ce mémoire présente un patron d’architecture permettant, dans un contexte orientéobjet, l’exploitation d’objets appartenant simultanément à plusieurs hiérarchies fonctionnelles. Ce patron utilise un reasoner basé sur les logiques de description (web sémantique) pour procéder à la classification des objets dans les hiérarchies. La création des objets est simplifiée par l’utilisation d’un ORM (Object Relational Mapper). Ce patron permet l’utilisation effective du raisonnement automatique dans un contexte d’applications d’entreprise. Les concepts requis pour la compréhension du patron et des outils sont présentés. Les conditions d’utilisation du patron sont discutées ainsi que certaines pistes de recherche pour les élargir. Un prototype appliquant le patron dans un cas simple est présenté. Une méthodologie accompagne le patron. Finalement, d’autres utilisations potentielles des logiques de description dans le même contexte sont discutées. / This master thesis presents a software architectural pattern for use in an object oriented environment to simultaneously access objects in multiple functional hierarchies. A Description Logics (Semantic Web) reasoner is used to classify the objects in the hierarchies. Object creation is simplifed by the use of an ORM - Object Relational Mapper. The pattern effectively allows automatic reasoning procedures to be used in an enterprise application context. All concepts required to understand the architectural pattern and the tools are presented. Usage conditions for the pattern are discussed and research projects are presented to widen the pattern’s applicability. A prototype applying the pattern on a simple problem is presented. A methodology is also presented. Finally, other potential uses of Description Logics based automatic reasoning procedures are discussed.