Thesis advisor: Zhijie Xiao / My dissertation research examines empirical issues in financial economics with a special focus on the application of quantile regression. This dissertation is composed by two self-contained papers, which center around: (1) robust estimation of conditional idiosyncratic volatility of asset returns to offer better understanding of market microstructure and asset pricing anomalies; (2) implementation of coherent risk measures in portfolio selection and financial risk management. The first chapter analyzes the roles of idiosyncratic risk and firm-level conditional skewness in determining cross-sectional returns. It is shown that the traditional EGARCH estimates of conditional idiosyncratic volatility may bring significant finite sample estimation errors in the presence of non-Gaussianity, casting strong doubt on the positive intertemporal idiosyncratic volatility effect reported in the literature. We propose an alternative estimator for conditional idiosyncratic volatility for GARCH-type models. The proposed estimation method does not require error distribution assumptions and is robust non-Gaussian innovations. Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the proposed estimator has much improved sampling performance over the EGARCH MLE in the presence of heavy-tail or skewed innovations. Our cross-section portfolio analysis demonstrates that the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle documented by Ang, Hodrick, Xiang and Zhang (2006) exists intertemporally, i.e., stocks with high conditional idiosyncratic volatility earn abnormally low returns. We solve the major piece of this puzzle by pointing out that previous empirical studies have failed to consider both idiosyncratic variance and individual conditional skewness in determining cross-sectional returns. We introduce a new concept - the "expected windfall" - as an alternative measure of conditional return skewness. After controlling for these two additional factors, cross-sectional regression tests identify a positive relationship between conditional idiosyncratic volatility and expected returns for over 99% of the total market capitalization of the NYSE, NASDAQ, and AMEX stock exchanges. The second chapter examines portfolio allocation decision for investors with general pessimistic preferences (GPP) regarding downside risk aversion and out-performing benchmark returns. I show that the expected utility of pessimistic investors can be robustly estimated within a quantile regression framework without assuming asset return distributions. The asymptotic properties of the optimal portfolio weights are derived. Empirically, this method is introduced to construct the optimal fund of CSFB/Tremont hedge-fund indices. Both the in-sample and out-of-sample backtesting results confirm that the optimal mean-GPP portfolio outperforms the mean-variance and mean-conditional VaR portfolios. / Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2009. / Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: Economics.

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Many previous studies find that family firms are prevalent among the U.S. firms. In particular, more than 35 percent of the S&P 500 firms consist of family firms in which families control about 18 percent of their firms’ shares. According to agency theory, the characteristics of a firm’s ownership, governance, and control play a critical role in the firm’s risk-taking activities and information flow to the market. Our study aims to investigate two controversies in the family business literature: whether family firms undertake fewer or more risks than non-family firms do, and whether family firms exhibit higher or lower information flow, reflected in their stock price informativeness and earnings informativeness, to the market. Using a sample of the S&P 500 companies as of 2003 for the period 2003-2007, we find that compared with non-family firms, the stock prices of family firms have more firm specific information impounded and the accounting earnings of family firms are more informative and thereby have more explanatory power for stock returns. These results are robust to different model specifications and variable proxies. In terms of risk-taking levels in corporate investment, our results indicate that family firms, on average, undertake fewer risks than non-family firms do. In particular, we find that although G-index is negatively associated with corporate risk-taking in non-family firms as previous studies (e.g. John et al., 2008) find for general firms, governance provisions do not have any influence on corporate risk-taking decisions in family firms. Numerous additional sensitivity tests using different corporate risk-taking proxies confirm the robustness of the findings.

The Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) argues that all unsystematic risk can be diversified away thus there should be no relationship between idiosyncratic risk and return. Ooi, Wang and Webb (2009) employ the Fama-French (1993) three-factor model (FF3) to estimate the level of nonsystematic return volatility in REITs as a proxy for idiosyncratic risk. They find a significant positive relationship between expected returns and conditionally estimated idiosyncratic risk contrary to the MPT. In this research, I examine other potential sources of systematic risk in REITs which may explain the seeming violation of the MPT found by Ooi et al (2009). I re-examine the proportion of idiosyncratic risk in REITs with Carhart’s (1997) momentum factor, which is largely applied on the FF3 to control for the persistency of stock returns as supplemental risk in the finance literature. Next, I conduct cross-sectional regression and test the significance of the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns. I further analyze the role of property sector on idiosyncratic risk as well as on its relationship with expected returns. I argue three conclusions. First, momentum has a relatively minor effect on the idiosyncratic risk consistent with the financial literature. Second, the effect of momentum is not strong enough to cause a significant change in the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns. Third, a REIT portfolio diversified across property sectors neutralizes the relationship between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns, though the contribution of each property sector is not statistically significant.

Esta pesquisa investigou os efeitos da estrutura de propriedade e da clareza na comunicação entre empresa e mercado sobre o risco idiossincrático das ações negociadas no mercado brasileiro de capitais de 2002 a 2012. O risco idiossincrático(1-R2) foi medida a partir do coeficiente de determinação da regressão dos retornos da ação em relação aos fatores sistemáticos (R2) e reflete o percentual dos retornos da ação não explicados pelos fatores sistemáticos. Neste estudo, empresas com alta concentração acionária são aquelas em que o maior acionista detém mais de 50% do total das ações ou em que os três maiores acionistas detêm, em conjunto, mais de 70% do total das ações. A concentração acionária afeta positivamente a volatilidade idiossincrática, enquanto o porte da empresa e a liquidez do papel na bolsa têm efeito oposto. Foi observada relação positiva entre a concentração acionária e o risco idiossincrático que, por sua vez, é menor nas empresas do setor financeiro, com alta concentração acionária. Contudo, parte do risco idiossincrático observado nas ações das empresas com alta concentração acionária decorre da menor liquidez do papel como consequência da pequena parcela das ações disponível aos investidores, e supostamente não está relacionada à incorporação das informações específicas aos preços. Nas empresas com alta concentração acionária, a volatilidade idiossincrática está positivamente relacionada à rentabilidade reportada e negativamente associada ao endividamento. As oportunidades de crescimento estão positivamente relacionadas com o risco idiossincrático nos casos em que a concentração acionária não é alta. Esse fato é compatível com a suposição de que as divergências sobre o impacto futuro do aproveitamento econômico das oportunidades com as quais a empresa se depara, gerariam variações nos preços decorrentes de informações específicas, corroborando com a suposição de que o risco idiossincrático reflete, ao menos em parte, as informações específicas incorporadas aos preços. Por outro lado, não foram encontradas evidências de que a clareza na comunicação entre a empresa e o mercado tenha efeito significativo na variabilidade dos retornos idiossincráticos. Se as informações específicas são incorporadas aos preços, a incorporação, ao que parece, não se dá pelos mecanismos atuais de fluxo de informação entre empresa e investidores. / This research investigates the effects of the ownership structure and the clarity of firm activities and performance to outsiders with regard to the idiosyncratic volatility of shares traded on the Brazilian stock exchange from 2002 to 2012. The idiosyncratic volatility (1-R²) is based on the coefficient of determination of regression of stock returns in relation to systematic factors (R²), and reflects the percentage of stock returns not explained by these systematic factors. In this study, companies with high stock concentration are those whose largest shareholder holds more than 50% of the total outstanding shares or whose three largest shareholders together hold more than 70% of the total outstanding shares. Ownership concentration positively affects the idiosyncratic volatility, while the firm\'s size and stock liquidity on the stock exchange have an opposite effect. A positive relationship between the ownership concentration and the idiosyncratic volatility is noted, which in turn is lower in financial institutions with high ownership concentration. However, part of the idiosyncratic volatility noted in stocks of firms with high ownership concentration results from lower liquidity of its papers as a consequence of the small number of shares available to investors and supposedly not related to firm-specific information incorporated into stock prices. In firms with high ownership concentration, idiosyncratic volatility is positively related to reported profitability and negatively associated with leverage. Growth opportunities are positively related to idiosyncratic volatility in cases where ownership concentration is not high. This fact is consistent with the assumption that variances of the future impact of the economic use of opportunities faced by a firm would generate variations in in its stock price as a result of specific information, supporting the assumption that the idiosyncratic volatility reflects, at least in part, firm-specific information incorporated into stock prices. On the other hand, no evidence is found that the clarity of firm activities and performance to outsiders has a significant effect on the variability of idiosyncratic returns. If firm-specific information is incorporated into its stock price, the incorporation, it seems, does not occur by current mechanisms of information flow between the firm and investors.

Esta tese apresenta três ensaios em macroeconomia aplicada e que possuem em comum o uso de técnicas estatísticas e econométricas em problemas macroeconômicos. Dentre os campos de pesquisa da macroeconomia aplicada, a tese faz uso de modelos macroeconômicos microfundamentados, em sua versão DSGE-VAR, e da macroeconomia financeira por meio da avaliação do comportamento da correlação entre os retornos das ações usando modelos Garch multivariados. Além disso, a tese provoca a discussão sobre um novo campo de pesquisa em macroeconomia que surge a partir do advento da tecnologia. No primeiro ensaio, aplicamos a abordagem DSGE-VAR na discussão sobre a reação do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) as oscilações na taxa de câmbio, especificamente para o caso de uma economia sob metas de inflação. Para tanto, baseando-se no modelo para uma economia aberta desenvolvido por Gali e Monacelli (2005) e modificado por Lubik e Schorfheide (2007), estimamos uma regra de política monetária para o Brasil e examinamos em que medida o BCB responde a mudanças na taxa de câmbio. Além disso, estudamos o grau de má especificação do modelo DSGE proposto. Mais especificamente, comparamos a verossimilhança marginal do modelo DSGE às do modelo DSGE-VAR e examinamos se o Banco Central conseguiu isolar a economia brasileira, em particular a inflação, de choques externos. Nossas conclusões mostram que as respostas aos desvios da taxa de câmbio são diferentes de zero e menores do que as respostas aos desvios da inflação. Finalmente, o ajuste do modelo DSGE é consideravelmente pior do que o ajuste do modelo DSGE-VAR, independentemente do número de defasagens utilizadas no VAR o que indica que de um ponto de vista estatístico existem evidências de que as restrições cruzadas do modelo teórico são violadas nos dados. O segundo ensaio examina empiricamente o comportamento da correlação entre o retorno de ações listadas na BMF&BOVESPA no período de 2000 a 2015. Para tanto, utilizamos modelos GARCH multivariados introduzidos por Bollerslev (1990) para extrair a série temporal das matrizes de correlação condicional dos retornos das ações. Com a série temporal dos maiores autovalores das matrizes de correlação condicional estimadas, aplicamos testes estatísticos (raiz unitária, quebra estrutural e tendência) para verificar a existência de tendência estocástica ou determinística para a intensidade da correlação entre os retornos das ações representadas pelos autovalores. Nossas conclusões confirmam que tanto em períodos de crises nacionais como turbulências internacionais, há intensificação da correlação entre as ações. Contudo, não encontramos qualquer tendência de longo prazo na série temporal dos maiores autovalores das matrizes de correlação condicional. Isso sugere que apesar das conclusões de Costa, Mazzeu e Jr (2016) sobre a tendência de queda do risco idiossincrático no mercado acionário brasileiro, a correlação dos retornos não apresentou tendência de alta, conforme esperado pela teoria de finanças. No terceiro ensaio, apresentamos pesquisas que utilizaram Big Data, Machine Learning e Text Mining em problemas macroeconômicos e discutimos as principais técnicas e tecnologias adotadas bem como aplicamos elas na análise de sentimento do BCB sobre a economia. Por meio de técnicas de Web Scraping e Text Mining, acessamos e extraímos as palavras usadas na escrita das atas divulgadas pelo Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) no site do BCB. Após isso, comparando tais palavras com um dicionário de sentimentos (Inquider) mantido pela Universidade de Harvard e originalmente apresentado por Stone, Dunphy e Smith (1966), foi possível criar um índice de sentimento para a autoridade monetária. Nossos resultados confirmam que tal abordagem pode contribuir para a avaliação econômica dado que a série temporal do índice proposto está relacionada com variáveis macroeconômicas importantes para as decisões do BCB. / This thesis presents three essays in applied macroeconomics and who have in common the use of statistical and econometric techniques in macroeconomic problems. Among the search fields of applied macroeconomics, the thesis makes use of microfounded macroeconomic models, in tis DSGE-VAR version, and financial macroeconomics through the evaluation of the behavior of correlation between stock returns using multivariate Garch models. In addition, leads a discussion on a new field of research in macroeconomics which arises from the advent of technology. In the first experiment, we applied the approach to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE VAR in the discussion about the reaction of the Central Bank of Brazil (CBB) to fluctuations in the exchange rate, specifically for the case of an economy under inflation targeting. To this end, based on the model for an open economy developed by Gali and Monacelli (2005) and modified by Lubik and Schorfheide (2007), we estimate a rule of monetary policy for the United States and examine to what extent the CBC responds to changes in the exchange rate. In addition, we studied the degree of poor specification of the DSGE model proposed. More specifically, we compare the marginal likelihood of the DSGE model to the DSGE-VAR model and examine whether the Central Bank managed to isolate the brazilian economy, in particular the inflation, external shocks. Our findings show that the response to deviations of the exchange rate are different from zero and lower than the response to deviations of inflation. Finally, the adjustment of the DSGE model is considerably worse than the adjustment of the DSGE-VAR model, regardless of the number of lags used in the VAR which indicates that a statistical point of view there is evidence that the restrictions crusades of the theoretical model are violated in the data. The second essay examines empirically the behavior of the correlation between the return of shares listed on the BMF&BOVESPA over the period from 2000 to 2015. To this end, we use models multivariate GARCH introduced by Bollerslev (1990) to remove the temporal series of arrays of conditional correlation of returns of stocks. With the temporal series of the largest eigenvalues of matrices of correlation estimated conditional, we apply statistical tests (unit root, structural breaks and trend) to verify the existence of stochastic trend or deterministic to the intensity of the correlation between the returns of the shares represented by eigenvalues. Our findings confirm that both in times of crises at national and international turbulence, there is greater correlation between the actions. However, we did not find any long-term trend in time series of the largest eigenvalues of matrices of correlation conditional. In the third test, we present research that used Big Data, Machine Learning and Text Mining in macroeconomic problems and discuss the main techniques and technologies adopted and apply them in the analysis of feeling of BCB on the economy. Through techniques of Web Scraping and Text Mining, we accessed and extracted the words used in the writing of the minutes released by the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) on the site of the BCB. After that, comparing these words with a dictionary of feelings (Inquider) maintained by Harvard University and originally presented by Stone, Dunphy and Smith (1966), it was possible to create an index of sentiment for the monetary authority. Our results confirm that such an approach can contribute to the economic assessment given that the temporal series of the index proposed is related with macroeconomic variables are important for decisions of the BCB.

A key prediction of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is that idiosyncratic risk is not priced by investors because in the absence of frictions it can be fully diversified away. In the presence of constraints on diversification, refinements of the CAPM conclude that the part of idiosyncratic risk that is not diversified should be priced. Recent empirical studies yielded mixed evidence with some studies finding positive correlation between idiosyncratic risk and stock returns, while other studies reported none or even negative correlation. In this thesis we revisit the problem whether idiosyncratic risk is priced by the stock market and what the probable causes for the mixed evidence produced by other studies, using monthly data for the US market covering the period from 1980 until 2013. We find that one-period volatility forecasts are not significantly correlated with stock returns. On the other hand, the mean-reverting unconditional volatility is a robust predictor of returns. Consistent with economic theory, the size of the premium depends on the degree of 'knowledge' of the security among market participants. In particular, the premium for Nasdaq-traded stocks is higher than that for NYSE and Amex stocks. We also find stronger correlation between idiosyncratic risk and returns during recessions, which may suggest interaction of risk premium with decreased risk tolerance or other investment considerations like flight to safety or liquidity requirements. The difference between the correlations between the idiosyncratic volatility estimators used by other studies and the true risk metric - the mean-reverting volatility - is the likely cause for the mixed evidence produced by other studies. Our results are robust with respect to liquidity, momentum, return reversals, unadjusted price, liquidity, credit quality, omitted factors, and hold at daily frequency.

This dissertation contains two essays. The first essay investigates the measure of FX liquidity and determinants of the change in FX liquidity. Using 20 cross currency exchange rates over spanning period of 1999 to 2016, funding constraints and global risks are responsible for the main drivers of changing in FX liquidity. The magnitudes of both G7 and emerging volatility index are offsetting each other in all the regression models indicating that FX investors take diversification trading strategies to diversify their portfolios. The financial crisis provides an evidence that the more financial constraint issues contribute to the change in FX market illiquidity more than non-financial crisis period. Extending to liquidity predictability, I find, however, that the lag of market FX liquidity is responsible for the change in FX liquidity than any other explanatory variables My second essay investigates the momentum returns of U.S. equities by presenting comprehensive approaches. Traditionally, momentum portfolios are constructed by ranking based on excess returns. Using this sorting technique, I confirm that there is a presence of momentum returns in U.S. equities for all of the 48 industries. The results also indicate that the portfolios that are sorted by idiosyncratic volatility as well as by diversification strategy cannot achieve the highest returns as for sorting based on excess returns. Further, I examine the momentum portfolio predictability using the inverse conditional volatility proposed by Moreira and Muir (2017), and show that the momentum returns are affected by the size of liquidity and the risk factors rather than by the economic variables.

Standard asset pricing theories suggest that only systematic risk is priced. Empirical studies report a relationship between idiosyncratic volatility or risk (IVOL) and asset price. The most common explanation for this anomaly is that households under-diversify creating a Bad Model problem. This paper uses an Intermediary Asset Pricing Model (IAPM) as a way to control for under-diversification in evaluating the relationship between IVOL and asset price. We find that IVOL premia is lower in an IAPM. Our findings indicate that under-diversification can explain the anomaly partially.

This study tires to find out how a firm¡¦s advertising and customer satisfaction influence firms¡¦ abnormal return and we uses the abnormal return (i.e. Jensne¡¦s £\) as the proxy of firm¡¦s shareholder value. We expect firms¡¦ advertising and customer satisfaction will have a positive impact on abnormal return while having a negative impact on firms¡¦ risk. In addition, we also consider under different market state whether advertising and customer satisfaction have an asymmetric effect. Compare with Carhart (1997) four factor model, this paper also takes the factor of VIX into account, and we use Markov regime switching model to recognize bull market and bear market because it can help us get a more accurate estimation. We choose the Generalized method of moments (GMM) to estimate the impact of advertising and customer satisfaction on shareholder value and discuss that whether advertising and customer satisfaction are able to lift up shareholder value or not. The outcome shows that advertising doesn¡¦t have significantly positive impact on firms¡¦ abnormal return under bull market and bear market. However, customer satisfaction has a significantly positive relationship with firms¡¦ abnormal return under bull market and bear market. And we find that if firms maintain the level of customer satisfaction under bear market, it will be more efficiently to lift up firms¡¦ abnormal return rather than spending more money on advertising.