This thesis analyses the relationship between month-ahead natural gas prices and imports into Europe against the backdrop of the 2022 Russian gas curtailment and gas price spike. Employing an ARCH model, the analysis focuses on the consortium of five major European consumers of natural gas: Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, and France. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing natural gas prices in the European market, we include key variables such as natural gas consumption, production, storage levels, oil prices and temperature. The study finds that the European natural gas market is sensitive to decreased imports which exert a positive effect on prices and volatility. Therefore, we can infer that the proposed market factors influence gas prices in Europe. This research provides insights into the dynamics of natural gas pricing, presenting the implications of disruptions and uncertainties in the contemporary natural gas market.

This thesis develops an econometric model of the Canadian clothing and textile industry for the purpose of investigating its structure, the market it faces, linkages between the market and the industry and the sensitivity of the industry to external factors. Using the model, several simulation experiments are conducted with the primary focus centered on the issues of protection accorded the industry. The future prospects of the industry under various alternative scenarios are evaluated. Empirical support is indicated for most of the hypotheses underlying the specification of the model. Some of the hypotheses are: the firms in the industry engage in imperfect competition; the industry operates under constant return to scale; price competitiveness is a significant factor in explaining the level of imports; domestic production capacity has an influence on imports. It is found in the thesis that clothing imports respond with a relatively high elasticity to changes in price as well as income, revealing a source of instability inherent in the clothing industry. As a system, the model is found to trace the history of the industry with reasonable accuracy. The model is also found to display a considerable degree of consistency and stability in its responses throughout the simulation experiments. The thesis thus provides a dynamic, structural and simultaneous economic system that can be validly used either as a forecasting tool or frame of reference in analyses. An ex-ante simulation intended as a reference forecast of the industry suggests that despite the present quota protection, the past downward trend observed in the clothing industry will likely continue in the future, while the textile industry will maintain a status quo. A simulation with a complete removal of tariff protection appears to support the argument that consumer gains will outweigh losses on the labour and production side. Another simulation suggests that there are policy options available that may be considered as effective means of stimulating the industry. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

This dissertation contains three papers from two projects. The first two papers (Chapter Two and Chapter Three) are from a project entitled “Managing Flounder Openings for Maximum Revenue.” The objective of this project is to (1) estimate the monthly dockside price of summer flounder and identify seasonality in this price; and (2) set up a mathematical programming model to maximize the landing revenue by allocating the federal government quota on summer flounder across twelve months. In the first paper (Chapter Two), various forms of inverse demand equations are used to estimate the dockside price of summer flounder. These models are evaluated based on their out-of-sample forecasting performance. A structural functional form is selected. In the second paper (Chapter Three), the selected price equation for summer flounder is applied into a revenue maximization model with both the federal government quota constraint and biological constraints from twelve months. The model is solved using CONPOT Solver of GAMS 21.5. The results of the scenarios indicate that the industry should move the landing effort from the period of October – February to the period of March – August. Comparing with historical data, this method can increase $44.73 million for the industry of landing summer flounder from 1991 to 2005. The third paper (Chapter Four) investigates how China's soybean import prices and domestic prices of soybeans and soybean products affect China's soybean imports. Since 2000, soybeans have been the U.S. leading agricultural exports for bulk commodities. China is the largest importer of U.S. soybean exports. For China's soybean crushing industry, imported soybeans are inputs rather than final products and used to produce soybean meal and oil. A differential production model, which is derived from a two-stage profit maximization model in producer theory, is adopted in this research. Estimates are used to calculate conditional and unconditional price elasticities for China's soybean imports from its major source countries – the United States, Argentina, and Brazil. In addition, the Divisia index and unconditional output price elasticities are obtained for China's soybean imports. Estimation results support the hypothesis that China's soybean imports are determined by its domestic demand for soybean meal, rather than soybean oil. This implies that U.S. agribusinesses should pay attention to the dominant role of China's demand for soybean meal and animal feed. U.S. agribusinesses can also use results in this research to evaluate how China's soybean imports from different source countries will change when either international market prices or China's domestic market prices change. / Ph. D.

Doctorat en sciences sociales, politiques et économiques / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

- Jiri Holecek - Roman imports in South Asia Diploma thesis sums up the development of the maritime trade between the Mediterranean, especially Rome, and South Asia, especially India, in the time period between the first century BC and the fourth century CE. Emphasis is put mostly on the archeological proof of the trade in the both directions, such as coins or traded goods, and their relevance and conclusiveness. Furthermore, the works of ancient historians are used to obtain more precise context in the terms of geography and economy. Thesis will compare the development of the maritime trade and the trade using the overland routes, especially so-called Silk Road. In conclussion, the thesis summarizes relevant proofs, and with their help defines the extent of the influence of the Mediterranean in South Asia and compare it with the influence of the overland routes, and finally describes the reasons of this economical development.

Master of Agribusiness / Department of Agricultural Economics / Allen Featherstone / The thesis assesses the viability of investing in a new grain discharge terminal at the port of Santos, located in the Brazilian southern region, used mostly for wheat but also for malt and malting barley operations. ABC Intl suffered losses of more than USD 1.0 million in 2006 due to demurrage costs at berth 39, used by ABC Intl to export and import grains, sugar and soybean. Congestion tends to increase with the growth of Brazilian soybean and sugar cane production and exports (average 5.0% per year) and 2.0% growth of wheat imports. Demurrage losses are expected to amount to USD 3.0 million by the year 2011 if no investments are made. A brief summary of Brazilian wheat supply and demand for the last five years is presented. Brazil is a net importer between 6.0 and 8.0 million metric tons of wheat per year, to supply the 10.0 million metric ton internal demand. Brazilian wheat imports through the port of Santos average 1.6 million metric tons per year from 2000 to 2006. Sao Paulo is the most populated Brazilian city with more than 18.0 million inhabitants. Its wheat consumption amounts to a third of the total Brazilian consumption and represents around 3.0 million metric tons per year. The thesis analyzes data related to berth 39 activities in the past seven years. A 56-day lineup in 2006 represented more than USD 1.0 million demurrage costs. The thesis forecasts the activity of berth 39 for next five years with and without investment at the new terminal. The new terminal will result in an average of USD 1.8 million savings on demurrage costs over five years. Codesp, Companhia Docas de Sao Paulo, the governmental authority in the port of Santos, is offering a unique opportunity for ABC Intl to invest in a new terminal for grain imports granting the land at no cost. The new terminal would be located at the middle of the port (berth 13/14) close to the railroad and the main avenue in the port of Santos, allowing discharging, storing and loading grain to trucks and wagons. ABC Intl needs to invest USD 5.0 million in the new terminal. It comprises the dismantling and rebuilding of all the grain discharge equipment that will be moved from shed 39 to the new terminal, including two suckers and conveyor belts. The thesis analyzes four different wheat import scenarios for the next five years. In addition, the same scenarios are analyzed for a 10-year period for comparison purposes. The weighted average of the Net Present Value of the four different investment scenarios, considering the probability of each occurring, is a positive USD 78,908 with 13.1% Internal Rate of Return, compared to 9.0 % ABC Intl opportunity cost of capital. It must be considered that the Net Present Value is a conservative figure since it does not take into account the savings on demurrage at berth 39, forecasted to be more than USD 3.0 million in the year 2011 if the company does not invest in the new terminal construction. It is recommended the ABC Intl invest in the new terminal to improve the overall logistics of the port and the quality of the service. This will avoid unnecessary demurrage costs and improving shareholders wealth by investing in a project with positive Net Present Value.

Um dos principais cereais produzido e consumido no Brasil, o arroz se apresentou, principalmente a partir da década de 1990, como um dos produtos agrícolas mais importados pelo Brasil. A abertura econômica brasileira em 1990, o plano de estabilização monetária (Plano Real) em 1994, e a criação do Mercosul em 1995 possibilitaram uma maior importação de bens e mercadorias pelo Brasil. Não diferente, as importações de arroz do país saltaram a um patamar significativo ao longo da década de 1990, com o Uruguai e Argentina sendo os maiores ofertantes do produto no mercado brasileiro. Mesmo após sua desvalorização cambial em 1999, o Brasil manteve níveis consideráveis de importação do produto oriundo do Mercosul. De forma a compreender os fatores que contribuíram para um aumento da demanda do produto importado, o presente trabalho descreveu o cenário da orizicultura no Brasil, Argentina e Uruguai, desde 1989 a 2008, analisando suas cadeias produtivas, preços nos mercados domésticos, e participação no mercado internacional de arroz. Concomitante a isso, propôs-se um modelo econômico para analisar esta relação comercial no Mercosul, assumindo que as importações brasileiras de arroz são resultantes de um excesso de demanda doméstica pelo cereal. Utilizou-se um ferramental econométrico baseado em um Modelo Auto-regressivo Vetorial VAR estrutural, aplicando a análise às relações contemporâneas das quantidades de arroz importado do Mercosul pelo Brasil, do preço doméstico do arroz no Brasil, do preço de importação do arroz do Mercosul, da renda interna brasileira e da taxa de câmbio efetiva no Brasil. Os resultados são expressos a partir de uma matriz de relações contemporâneas, da decomposição da variância do erro de previsão e da função impulso-resposta das variáveis em relação a choques contemporâneos nas mesmas, através do processo de Bernanke. Os resultados alcançados mostraram uma forte relação entre o volume importado com o preço doméstico de arroz, além de uma relativa importância na taxa de câmbio brasileira na explicação do padrão de importação do arroz pelo país. Outro ponto importante é a significativa participação do preço de importação na explicação dos preços domésticos. A variável quantidade de importação de arroz se mostrou sensível em relação a um choque positivo de 1% simulado no preço doméstico, indicando um aumento imediato em aproximadamente 3% os volumes importados. Esta variável também se mostrou sensível a um choque no preço de importação, que apontou a uma redução pela metade (0,5%) no volume importado e, a um choque na taxa de câmbio, com redução de 2% no volume importado. Já os choques no preço doméstico e preço de importação do arroz indicaram uma relação de causalidade de um sobre o outro, sugerindo aumentos nos mesmos e indicando a existência de um mercado orizícola integrado entre o Brasil e o Mercosul. / The rice, one of the main cereals produced and consumed in Brazil, has been one of the most agricultural products imported by Brazil, mainly in the 1990s. The economic market opened in 1990, the monetary stabilization plan (Plano Real) in 1994 and the creation of Mercosur in 1995 allowed an increment in imports of goods and services in Brazil. Therefore, imports of rice in the country rose to a significant level throughout the 1990s. Uruguay and Argentina became the largest suppliers of the product for the Brazilian market. Even though, after the devaluation of the Brazilian currency (Real) in 1999, Brazil retained considerable levels of product imports from the Mercosur. In order to understand the factors that contributed to an increased demand of imported product, this thesis described the scenery of rice production in Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, from 1989 to 2008. It analyses their production chains, prices in domestic markets, and participation in international rice´s market. Concomitant to this, it was proposed an economic model that examines the relationship in the Mercosur trade, assuming that Brazilian imports of rice are a result of excess domestic demand for this grain. Econometric model Vector Auto-regressive structural VAR was applied to analyze the contemporary relations of the quantities of rice imported by Brazil in Mercosur, the domestic price of rice in Brazil, the import price of rice in Mercosur, the Brazilian domestic income and the effective exchange rate in Brazil. Results are expressed from an array of contemporary relations, from decomposition variance of the prediction error and from the impulse-response function of the variables on contemporary shocks. The results showed a strong relationship between rice imports with the domestic rice price, and relative importance with Brazilian exchange rate in explaining the pattern of importing rice. Another point is the significant participation of the imports price in explaining domestic price. The variable quantity of rice imports was sensitive for a positive shock of 1% in the domestic price, indicating an immediate increment close to 3% in the quantity imported. This variable was also sensitive to a shock in the imported price, which showed a reduction by half (0.5%) in the quantity imported. A shock in the exchange rate reduces by 2% in the quantity imported. The shocks in the domestic and import price of rice indicated a causality relationship to one over the other, suggesting increases on both, indicating an existence of integrated rice market between Brazil and Mercosur.

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nÃo hà / This dissertation is a presentation of practical studies based on statistics and other data of the International Trade Balance, imports and exports of North-East Region of Brazil --of which the three most import states are Bahia, Cearà and Pernambuco--, and of national economic from 1990 through 2001. The figures of foreign commerce of each individual state, of the whole region, and of the country as a whole, are measured and compared. The grade of openness of each of these economies is revealed. Through the method of Ordinary Minimum Squares (OMM) an estimate is made of the past impact of internal variables like price (exchange rates), local revenues (industrial production and ICMS), and external revenues (the USA index of Industrial Product and GNP) on the regionâs ability to augment the volume of exports and imports. / This dissertation is a presentation of practical studies based on statistics and other data of the International Trade Balance, imports and exports of North-East Region of Brazil --of which the three most import states are Bahia, Cearà and Pernambuco--, and of national economic from 1990 through 2001. The figures of foreign commerce of each individual state, of the whole region, and of the country as a whole, are measured and compared. The grade of openness of each of these economies is revealed. Through the method of Ordinary Minimum Squares (OMM) an estimate is made of the past impact of internal variables like price (exchange rates), local revenues (industrial production and ICMS), and external revenues (the USA index of Industrial Product and GNP) on the regionâs ability to augment the volume of exports and imports.

University of Macau / Faculty of Law