This thesis considers the use of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) for surveying temporal fluctuations in the velocity of glaciers in the Arctic region. The aim of this thesis is to gain a broader understanding of the manner in which the flow of both land- and marine-terminating glaciers varies over time, and to asses the ability of InSAR to resolve flow changes over timescales which provide useful information about the physical processes that control them. InSAR makes use of the electromagnetic phase difference between successive SAR images to produce interference patterns (interferograms) which contain information on the topography and motion of the Earth's surface in the direction of the radar line-of-sight. We apply established InSAR techniques (Goldstein et al., 1993) to (i) the 925 km2 LangjÖkull Ice Cap (LIC) in Iceland, which terminates on land (ii) the 8 500 km2 Flade Isblink Icecap (FIIC) in Northeast Greenland which has both land- and marine-terminating glaciers and (iii) to a 7 000 km2 land-terminating sector of the Western Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). It is found that these three regions exhibit velocity variations over contrasting timescales. At the LIC, we use an existing ice surface elevation model and dual-look SAR data acquired by the European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite to estimate ice velocity (Joughin et al., 1998) during late-February in 1994. A comparison with direct velocity measurements determined by global positioning system (GPS) sensors during the summer of 2001 shows agreement (r2 = 0.86), suggesting that the LIC exhibits moderate seasonal and inter-annual variations in ice flow. At the FIIC, we difference pairs of interferograms (Kwok and Fahnestock, 1996) formed using ERS SAR data acquired between 15th August 1995 and 3rd February 1996 to estimate ice velocity on four separate days. We observe that the flow of 5 of the 8 outlet glaciers varies in latesummer compared with winter, although flow speeds vary by up to 20 % over a 10 day period in August 1995. At the GrIS, we use InSAR (Joughin et al., 1996) and ERS SAR data to reveal a detailed pattern of seasonal velocity variations, with ice speeds in latesummer up to three times greater than wintertime rates. We show that the degree of seasonal speedup is spatially variable and correlated with modeled runoff, suggesting that seasonal velocity changes are controlled by the routing of water melted at the ice sheet surface. The overall conclusion of this work is that the technique of InSAR can provide useful information on fluctuations in ice speed across a range of timescales. Although some ice masses exhibit little or no temporal flow variability, others show marked inter-annual, seasonal and even daily variations in speed. We observe variations in seasonality in ice flow over distances of ~ 10 km and over time periods of ~10 days during late-summer. With the aid of ancillary meteorological data, we are able to establish that rates of flow in western Greenland are strongly moderated by the degree of surface melting, which varies seasonally and secularly. Although the sampling of our data is insufficiently frequent and spans too brief a period for us to derive a general relationship between climate and seasonality of flow, we show that production of meltwater at the ice surface and its delivery to the ice bed play an important role in the modulation of horizontal flow speeds. We suggest that a similarly detailed investigation of other ice masses is required to reduce the uncertainty in predictions of the future Arctic land-ice contribution to sea level in a warming world.

Geodetic observations are commonly used to make inferences about the rheology of the lower crust and mantle, frictional properties of faults, and the structure of the Earth following an earthquake. On 24 September 2013, an Mw 7.7 earthquake ruptured a 200 km segment of the Hoshab fault in southern Pakistan. The Hoshab fault is located in the Makran accretionary prism, one of the widest emergent accretionary prisms on Earth. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) time series observations beginning 15 months after the 2013 earthquake capture a large displacement transient in the hanging wall of the Hoshab fault. Using simulations of viscoelastic relaxation and inversions for afterslip along five candidate fault geometries, I find that afterslip alone cannot account for the displacement observed in time series. Instead, I find that the observations can be explained by viscoelastic relaxation of a mechanically weak (viscosity on the order of 1017-1018 Pa s), shallow (>6 km) weak layer within the accretionary prism. First order results indicate this weak layer is between 8-12 km thick with a power law (n=3.5) rheology, and that viscoelastic relaxation is accommodated by dislocation creep at low temperatures. The weak nature of the Makran accretionary wedge may be driven by high pore fluid pressure from hydrocarbon development and underplated sediments.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第23863号 / 工博第4950号 / 新制||工||1773(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小池 克明, 教授 須崎 純一, 准教授 柏谷 公希 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DGAM

The present-day kinematics and deformation of the Arabian plate and the southern Red Sea region involves interaction of tectonic and non-tectonic processes including plate subduction, continental collision, seafloor spreading, intraplate magmatism, continental transform faulting, microplate rotation, hydrological loading cycles, and anthropogenic activity. Therefore, good constraints on the rates and directions of relative plate motion, plate boundary locations, and rheological properties in the area are essential to assess seismic and volcanic hazards in the region. In this thesis, I combine Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements from over 200 stations with kinematic block modeling to provide updated estimates of the present-day motions of the Arabian plate and the southern Red Sea region. Using the non-rigid residual motions and changes in GNSS station baselines, I provide quantitative constraints on the internal deformation for the Arabian plate at different spatial scales. In addition, I use the GNSS station response to seasonal water exchange in the Red Sea to make inferences of the lithospheric elastic properties beneath Arabia. The GNSS-derived velocity field indicates coherent motion of both the Danakil block in the southern Red Sea and the Arabian plate at present. Current motions in the southern Red Sea region, however, are inconsistent with previous interpretations and require an additional plate boundary in the area. My updated fault slip rates improved earlier estimates limited by the number and spatial distribution of GNSS stations, particularly for the Arabian-Indian plate pair, for which slower right-lateral strike-slip motions are predicted. Non-rigid residual velocities within the Arabian plate interior indicate that large-scale internal deformations are compensated internally. However, at a smaller scale, I identify several localities accommodating significant strain, mostly related to anthropogenic activity. Ground response to surface mass loading associated with water transport in the Red Sea suggests that the Earth’s elastic structure beneath the Arabian plate is 20% to 30% less stiff than global averaged (i.e., AK135-F planetary model). Still, the lithosphere beneath both the Danakil block and the Arabian plate remains strong despite being affected by significant faulting and magmatism associated with the Nubian-Arabian-Eurasian plate interaction.

Studying recent volcanic and tectonic events in the Red Sea region is important for improving our knowledge of the Red Sea plate boundary and for regional geohazard assessments. However, limited information has been available about the past activity due to insufficient in-situ data and remoteness of some of the activity. In this dissertation, I have used satellite remote sensing to derive new information about several recent volcanic and tectonic events in the Red Sea region. I first report on three volcanic eruptions in the southern Red Sea, the 2007-8 Jebel at Tair eruption and the 2011-12 & 2013 Zubair eruptions, which resulted in formation of two new islands. Series of high- resolution optical images were used to map the extent of lava flows and to observe and analyze the growth and destructive processes of the new islands. I used Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data to study the evolution of lava flows, to estimate their volumes, as well as to generate ground displacements maps, which were used to model the dikes that fed the eruptions. I then report on my work of the 2009 Harrat Lunayyir dike intrusion and the 2004 Tabuk earthquake sequence in western Saudi Arabia. I used InSAR observations and stress calculations to study the intruding dike at Harrat Lunayyir, while I combined InSAR data and Bayesian estimation to study the Tabuk earthquake activity. The key findings of the thesis are: 1) The recent volcanic eruptions in the southern Red Sea indicate that the area is magmatically more active than previously acknowledged and that a rifting episode has been taken place in the southern Red Sea; 2) Stress interactions between an ascending dike intrusion and normal faulting on graben-bounding faults above the dike can inhibit vertical propagation of magma towards the surface; 3) InSAR observations can improve locations of shallow earthquakes and fault model uncertainties are useful to associate earthquake activity with mapped faults; 4). The successful application of satellite remote sensing technologies in studying the recent volcanic and tectonic processes in the Red Sea region implies that remote sensing data are an important resource for the local authorities to monitor geohazards.

Nous avons utilisé deux techniques de géodésie spatiale (Global Navigation Satellite System, GNSS, et Interférométrie d'images radar satellite, InSAR) pour estimer la cinématique actuelle et les taux de glissement de la plupart des failles de l'Est et du Nord-Est de l'Iran. En Iran de l'Est, 14 mm/an de cisaillement dextre est accommodé sur les failles décrochantes dextres Est-Lut, West-Lut, Kuhbanan, Anar et Dehshir. Ces failles glissent latéralement à 5.6 ± 0.6, 4.4 ± 0.4, 3.6 ± 1.3, 2.0 ± 0.7 et 1.4 ± 0.9 mm/an, respectivement, de l'est à l'ouest. Au nord de ces failles, nos vitesses GNSS suggèrent une rotation de block rigide du bassin Sud Caspien (SCB) autour d'un pôle qui se trouve plus loin qu'on ne le pensait précédemment. Ce mouvement NW de SCB implique un glissement dextre de jusqu'à 7 mm/an sur la faille Ashkabad, et jusqu'à 4-6 mm/an de glissement senestre à travers le système des failles de Shahroud (SFS). L'analyse InSAR en séries temporelles localise 4.75 ± 0.5 mm/an de glissement senestre plus spécifiquement sur les failles d'Abr et Jajarm. / Eastern Iran has a crucial role in accommodating the Arabia-Eurasia convergence. We used permanent and campaign Global Positioning System (GPS) networks to estimate the present-day kinematics and the slip rates on most faults in Central-Eastern Iran and Kopeh Dagh. Also we used differential Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) interferometry to estimate the interseismic deformation along two major faults in Eastern Iran, the Shahroud and Doruneh faults. In Eastern Iran, 14 mm/yr of right-lateral shear is accommodated on the East-Lut, West-Lut, Kuhbanan, Anar and Dehshir right-lateral faults. These faults slip laterally at 5.6 ± 0.6, 4.4 ± 0.4, 3.6 ± 1.3, 2.0 ± 0.7 and 1.4 ±0.9 mm/yr, respectively from east to west and they divide the Central-Eastern Iranian crust in five blocks that are moving northwards at 6-13 mm/yr with respect to Eurasia. The NS faults accommodate additional NS shortening by rotating counterclockwise in the horizontal plane, at current rates of up to 0.8°Ma. In the North of theses faults is situated the EW orientated left-lateral Doruneh fault. We obtain less than 4 mm/yr of slip rate using SAR ENVISAT data which correspond to the GPS results from average velocity differences to each side of the fault. North of Doruneh, our GPS velocities suggest a rigid-body rotation of the South Caspian Basin (SCB) about an Euler pole that is located further away than previously thought. This NW motion of SCB is accommodated by right-lateral slip on the Ashkabad fault (at a rate of up to 7 mm/yr) and by up to 4-6 mm/yr of summed left-lateral slip across the Shahroud left-lateral strike-slip system. The time series analysis of two ENVISAT SAR images covering the Shahroud faults system helps localizing the left-lateral slip on individual faults. We perform a 2-D elastic half-space modeling of two tracks. The modeling results yield 4.75 ± 0.5 mm/yr of left-lateral slip rate on the Abr (~ longitude 55°) and Jajarm (~longitude 56°) strand of the Shahroud fault system with a 10 ± 4 km locking depth, highlighting the important contribution of these faults to seismic hazard in the highly populated NE Iran.

Surface displacement at volcanic edifices is related to subsurface processes associated with magma movements, fluid transfers within the volcano edifice and gravity-driven deformation processes. Understanding of associated ground displacements is of importance for assessment of volcanic hazards. For example, volcanic unrest is often preceded by surface uplift, caused by magma intrusion and followed by subsidence, after the withdrawal of magma. Continuous monitoring of the surface displacement at volcanoes therefore might allow the forecasting of upcoming eruptions to some extent. In geophysics, the measured surface displacements allow the parameters of possible deformation sources to be estimated through analytical or numerical modeling. This is one way to improve the understanding of subsurface processes acting at volcanoes. Although the monitoring of volcanoes has significantly improved in the last decades (in terms of technical advancements and number of monitored volcanoes), the forecasting of volcanic eruptions remains puzzling. In this work I contribute towards the understanding of the subsurface processes at volcanoes and thus to the improvement of volcano eruption forecasting. I have investigated the displacement field of Llaima volcano in Chile and of Tendürek volcano in East Turkey by using synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR). Through modeling of the deformation sources with the extracted displacement data, it was possible to gain insights into potential subsurface processes occurring at these two volcanoes that had been barely studied before. The two volcanoes, although of very different origin, composition and geometry, both show a complexity of interacting deformation sources. At Llaima volcano, the InSAR technique was difficult to apply, due to the large decorrelation of the radar signal between the acquisition of images. I developed a model-based unwrapping scheme, which allows the production of reliable displacement maps at the volcano that I used for deformation source modeling. The modeling results show significant differences in pre- and post-eruptive magmatic deformation source parameters. Therefore, I conjecture that two magma chambers exist below Llaima volcano: a post-eruptive deep one and a shallow one possibly due to the pre-eruptive ascent of magma. Similar reservoir depths at Llaima have been confirmed by independent petrologic studies. These reservoirs are interpreted to be temporally coupled. At Tendürek volcano I have found long-term subsidence of the volcanic edifice, which can be described by a large, magmatic, sill-like source that is subject to cooling contraction. The displacement data in conjunction with high-resolution optical images, however, reveal arcuate fractures at the eastern and western flank of the volcano. These are most likely the surface expressions of concentric ring-faults around the volcanic edifice that show low magnitudes of slip over a long time. This might be an alternative mechanism for the development of large caldera structures, which are so far assumed to be generated during large catastrophic collapse events. To investigate the potential subsurface geometry and relation of the two proposed interacting sources at Tendürek, a sill-like magmatic source and ring-faults, I have performed a more sophisticated numerical modeling approach. The optimum source geometries show, that the size of the sill-like source was overestimated in the simple models and that it is difficult to determine the dip angle of the ring-faults with surface displacement data only. However, considering physical and geological criteria a combination of outward-dipping reverse faults in the west and inward-dipping normal faults in the east seem to be the most likely. Consequently, the underground structure at the Tendürek volcano consists of a small, sill-like, contracting, magmatic source below the western summit crater that causes a trapdoor-like faulting along the ring-faults around the volcanic edifice. Therefore, the magmatic source and the ring-faults are also interpreted to be temporally coupled. In addition, a method for data reduction has been improved. The modeling of subsurface deformation sources requires only a relatively small number of well distributed InSAR observations at the earth’s surface. Satellite radar images, however, consist of several millions of these observations. Therefore, the large amount of data needs to be reduced by several orders of magnitude for source modeling, to save computation time and increase model flexibility. I have introduced a model-based subsampling approach in particular for heterogeneously-distributed observations. It allows a fast calculation of the data error variance-covariance matrix, also supports the modeling of time dependent displacement data and is, therefore, an alternative to existing methods. / Oberflächenverschiebungen an Vulkanen können einerseits durch unterirdische Magmen- oder Fluidbewegungen oder andererseits durch Gravitation verursacht werden. So sind insbesondere vor Eruptionen oft Aufwölbungen an Vulkanen zu beobachten, verursacht durch Magmenintrusion in die Erdkruste. Nach Eruptionen hingegen sinkt das Vulkangebäude aufgrund von Magmenextrusion wieder. Kontinuierliche Messungen an Vulkanen ermöglichen es, Eruptionen teilweise bis auf wenige Tage vorherzusagen. Die gemessenen Oberflächenverschiebungen können in analytischen oder numerischen Modellierungen genutzt werden, um Parameter eines möglichen Quellprozesses abzuschätzen. Auf diese Art und Weise kann das Verständnis über die unterirdischen Prozesse, die an Vulkanen stattfinden, verbessert werden. Obwohl es in den letzten Jahrzehnten eine enorme Entwicklung und Verbesserung der Überwachung von Vulkanen gab, sind viele Vorhersagen sehr vage und ungenau. Mit dieser Arbeit möchte ich einen Beitrag zum Verständnis von unterirdischen Prozessen an Vulkanen und auf lange Sicht gesehen, zur Vorhersage von Eruptionen leisten. Ich habe die Vulkane, Llaima in Chile und Tendürek im Osten der Türkei, mit Hilfe der Interferometrie von Radardaten (InSAR) untersucht. Die somit gemessenen Verschiebungen an der Erdoberfläche ermöglichen es, durch Modellierung der möglichen Deformationsquellen, Informationen über die Untergrundstrukturen dieser beiden bisher kaum erforschten Vulkane zu bekommen. Obwohl unterschiedlich in Aufbau, Gesteinszusammensetzung und Entstehung, zeigen beide Vulkane Anzeichen dafür, dass jeweils mehrere interagierende Deformationsquellen im Untergrund existieren. Am Vulkan Llaima war es schwierig, aufgrund der starken Dekorrelation des Radarsignals zwischen den Satellitenaufnahmen, die InSAR Methode anzuwenden. Ich entwickelte eine Methode um die doppeldeutigen relativen Phasenwerte der Interferogramme modellbasiert in eindeutige relative Phasenwerte umzurechnen. Die damit erzeugten Oberflächenverschiebungskarten am Vulkan eigneten sich nun für eine anschließende Modellierung der Deformationsquelle. Die Modellierungsergebnisse zeigen signifikante Unterschiede zwischen den Parametern der präeruptiven- und posteruptiven Deformationsquellen. Demzufolge könnten zwei unterschiedliche, interagierende Magmenkammern unter Llaima existieren, eine tiefe, posteruptiv aktive Kammer und eine flache, durch den Aufstieg von Magma präeruptiv aktive Kammer. Am Vulkan Tendürek ist eine langfristige, kontinuierliche Senkung des Vulkangebäudes zu beobachten, die mit einem großen, aufgrund von Kühlung sich kontrahierenden, magmatischen Sill, erklärbar ist. Unter Hinzunahme von hochauflösenden, optischen Daten jedoch, sind bei genauerer Untersuchung bogenförmige Strukturen an der Erdoberfläche sichtbar. Diese sind Anzeichen dafür, dass Verwerfungen existieren, die das gesamte Vulkangebäude in einem elliptischen Ring umgeben. Dabei ist zu beobachten, dass die Ringstörungen über Jahrtausende, möglicherweise sogar kontinuierlich, geringe Magnituden von Versatz aufweisen. Bei langer, kontinuierlicher Aktivität über mehrere zehntausende von Jahren, könnte dies ein weiterer Mechanismus zur Entstehung von Calderastrukturen an Vulkanen darstellen, der jedoch sehr langsam verläuft. Im Gegensatz dazu ist die heutige weit verbreitete Auffassung, dass Calderen als Folge katastrophaler Einstürze von Vulkangebäuden entstehen. Um zu untersuchen welche Geometrie die vorgeschlagenen Strukturen Sill und Ringstörungen an Tendürek im Untergund haben könnten, vollführte ich eine weitaus komplexere numerische Modellierung. Diese zeigt, dass die Größe des Sills ohne Berücksichtigung der Ringstörung um ein Vielfaches überschätzt ist. Die Orientierung und Geometrie der Ringstörungen ist jedoch nicht eindeutig nur mit Oberflächenverschiebungsdaten auflösbar. Unter der Berücksichtigung von geologischen und physikalischen Gesichtspunkten sind nach Außen einfallende Aufschiebungen im Westen und nach Innen einfallende Abschiebungen im Osten die plausibelste Erklärung. Außerdem habe ich eine Methode zur Datenreduzierung entwickelt. Abhängig vom zu untersuchenden Prozess sind für die Modellierung von unterirdischen Deformationsquellen verhältnismäßig wenige gut verteilte Messpunkte an der Erdoberfläche ausreichend. Satelliten gestützte Radaraufnahmen haben jedoch oft mehrere Millionen dieser Punkte. Deshalb müssen diese riesigen Datensätze auf eine Art und Weise reduziert werden, dass keine oder nur möglichst wenige Informationen verloren gehen. Für diesen Zweck habe ich, ausgehend von einem existierenden Algorithmus, eine modellbasierte Methode zur Reduzierung von besonders heterogen verteilten Oberflächendaten entwickelt. Diese Methode ist besonders gut auf Zeitreihendatensätze anwendbar und stellt somit eine Alternative zu existierenden Algorithmen dar.

Je me focalise sur trois grands systèmes de failles transformantes obliques au Tibet et en Californie du Sud, et ce, afin de mieux comprendre et quantifier les relations entre les différentes structures qui les définissent. L'interférométrie radar à Synthèse d'Ouverture (InSAR) dispose du potentiel pour cartographier et localiser précisément la déformation sur des zones étendues et ainsi contraindre la géométrie des structures profondes. Cependant son utilisation en milieu naturel se trouve fortement entravée par la décorrelation due à la végétation, au relief, et aux cycles de gel et dégel, mais aussi par les délais troposphériques et les rampes orbitales résiduelles. J'ai développé des méthodes pour palier ces limitations. Au Tibet, j'ai ainsi traité les archives du satellite Envisat au niveau de deux zones de lacune sismique, à la bordure Nord du plateau, se présentant comme des zones intéressantes pour étudier le partitionnement de la convergence: le système de faille de Haiyuan au north-est Tibet et la faille sénestre de l'Altyn Tagh, au nord-ouest du plateau. Une attention spécifique sur les déformations liées au pergélisol m'a permis de (1) retrouver la continuité du signal sur de grandes zones, (2) de quantifier le comportement temporel des cycles de gel et dégel des sédiments recouvrant le pergélisol, (3) d'isoler les zones stables des sédiments se déformant. Je montre que les déformations saisonnières sont fortement dépendantes des unités géomorphologiques et que la fonte du pergélisol est plus important à faible qu'à haute altitude. J'analyse aussi le signal saisonnier au travers la marche topographique et je définie un proxy pour les incertitudes de la correction atmosphérique. J'observe un gradient de déformation au travers la faille de l'Altyn Tagh de l'ordre de 11-15 mm/an et un alignement claire de la déformation dans le Tarim, parallèle à la faille de l'Altyn Tagh, ainsi que des soulèvements de l'ordre de 1 mm/an associés à des chevauchements. Ce travail montre aussi un gradient de déformation associé à la terminaison ouest de la faille du Kunlun, re-définissant ainsi la géométrie des blocs tectoniques dans cette région. Parallèlement à cette acquisition de données, je développe des outils d'inversion basés sur des algorithmes de Monte Carlo afin d'explorer l'ensemble des géométries en accord avec les observations et d'estimer la compatibilité de la déformation actuelle avec des modèles tectoniques long-termes. Je montre ainsi une convergence uniforme de 8.5-11.5 mm/an et d'orientation N81-98E à travers le système de faille d'Haiyuan et quantifie son partitionnement le long des différentes structures. Par ailleurs, j'applique mon approche en Californie du Sud, au niveau du « Big Bend » de la faille de San Andreas où, en analogie avec des modèles structuraux géologiques, j'utilise des lois de conservations du mouvement pour contraindre la géométrie des chevauchements aveugles. Je montre la compatibilité du champs de déformation actuel avec un décollement grande échelle et quantifie une accumulation de contrainte de 2.5 mm/an le long de la structure majeure sous Los Angeles. / I focus on three major oblique transform faults in Tibet and in Southern California, in order to better measure and quantify the present-day strain accumulation on these structures. Interferometric synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) has the potential to map and localize precisely the deformation over wide areas and thus constrain the deep geometry of these structures. However, its application in natural environments in hindered by strong decorrelation of the radar phase due to vegetation, relief, and freeze and thaw cycles, but also due to variable tropospheric phase delays across topographic feature and long-wavelength residual orbital ramps. Here, I develop methodologies to circumvent these limitations and separate tectonic from other parasite signals. In Tibet, I process data from the Envisat satellite archives, at the boundary of the Tibetan plateau, in two seismic gaps, which appear interesting to study the partitioning of the convergence: the Haiyuan Fault system in northeastern Tibet and the left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault, in northwestern Tibet. A specific focus on the permafrost related deformation signal allows us to: (1) correctly unwrap interferograms from north to south, (2) quantify the temporal behavior of the freeze/thaw cycles, and (3) isolate bedrock pixels that are not affected by the permafrost signal for further tectonic analysis. I show that the seasonal subsidence depends greatly on the geological land unit and that lower elevations are thawing faster than higher elevations. I analyze the atmospheric signal across the high plateau margin and estimate proxy for the uncertainty on atmospheric corrections. I observe a strike-slip deformation of around 11-15 mm/yr across the Altyn Tagh fault, a clear line of concentrated strike-slip deformation of around 3 mm/yr within the Tarim basin, trending parallel to the Altyn Tagh Fault trace, as well as thrust signal uplifting terraces at a rate of 1 mm/yr. This work also shows a strain accumulation around the west extension of the south trace of the Kunlun Fault, redefining the block boundaries in northwestern Tibet. In parallel this data acquisition, I develop Monte Carlo inversion tools in order to explore the various geometries in agreement with observations and estimate the compatibility of actual surface displacements with long-term slip partitioning models. I thus show a uniform convergence rate of 8.5-11.5 mm/yr with a N81-98E across the Haiyuan fault system and quantify the partitioning along the various structures. I also apply my approach in Southern California, across the « Big Bend » of the San Andreas Fault, where, in analogy with structural geological models, I use conservation of motion to help constraining the geometry and the kinematics of blind thrust faults. I show the compatibility of surface displacements with a large-scale décollement and quantify a loading rate of 2.5 mm/yr along the major thrust structure developing under Los Angeles.

Les travaux de cette thèse de Doctorat ont été menés dans le cadre de l'accord en co-tutelle entre l'Université de Strasbourg (EOST) et Istanbul Technical University (Dept. of Geology), avec l'octroi d'une bourse d'étude annuelle de !'Ambassade de France à Ankara, une bourse d'excellence EIFFEL de 10 mois, et un support financier de 8 mois de« TUBITAK 22148 - joint Ph.D. ». La zone de convergence de plaques Afrique - Eurasie comporte des failles capables de générer de forts séismes destructeurs. L'objectif de cette thèse est une meilleure compréhension du comportement de ces failles, et du cycle sismique associé, par l'analyse des déformations co-,post- et inter-sismiques enregistrées en surface, dans la zone de convergence. Une attention particulière est portée aux déformations lentes et à leur part dans le cycle sismique, mesurées en surface et analysées à l'aide des techniques lnSAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar lnterferometry), et modélisées par les méthodes de la dislocation élastique. / This Ph.D. thesis is conducted in the frame of the -co-tutellell scholarship (EOST-ITU) provided by French Embassy in Ankara. ln addition, a 10-month scholarship « Bourse excellence Eiffel » ,and 8-month scholarship « TUBITAK 22148 - joint Ph.D. » were other sources of support for the preparation of this thesis.The convergence between African and Eurasian plates is at the origin of active tectonic structures that generate large and destructive earthquakes. This thesis aims to improve our understanding of fault behavior and the earthquake cycle by analyzing surface deformation along selected active faults during the periods of co-, post-and inter-seismic deformation within the Africa-Eurasia convergence zone. ln this context, slow deformation observed at the surface and associated with the earthquake cycle is analyzed using Synthetic Aperture Radar lnterferometry (lnSAR) time series technique, and modeled with elastic dislocation methods.

Le suivi de la mise en place du magma à faible profondeur et de sa migration vers la surface est crucial pour prévoir les éruptions volcaniques.Avec les progrès récents de l'imagerie SAR et le nombre croissant de réseaux GNSS continus sur les volcans, il est maintenant possible de fournir une évolution continue et spatialement étendue des déplacements de surface pendant les périodes inter-éruptives. Pour les volcans basaltiques, ces mesures combinées à des modèles dynamiques simples peuvent être exploitées pour caractériser et contraindre la mise en pression d'un ou de plusieurs réservoirs magmatiques, ce qui fournit une meilleure information prédictive sur l'emplacement du magma à faible profondeur. L'assimilation de données—un processus séquentiel qui combine au mieux les modèles et les observations, en utilisant parfois une information a priori basée sur les statistiques des erreurs, pour prédire l'état d'un système dynamique—a récemment gagné en popularité dans divers domaines des géosciences. Dans cette thèse, je présente la toute première application de l'assimilation de données en volcanologie en allant des tests synthétiques à l’utilisation de données géodésiques réelles.La première partie de ce travail se concentre sur le développement de stratégies afin d'évaluer le potentiel de l’assimilation de données. En particulier, le Filtre de Kalman d'Ensemble a été utilisé avec un modèle dynamique simple à deux chambres et de données géodésiques synthétiques pour aborder les points suivants : 1) suivi de l'évolution de la pression magmatique en profondeur et des déplacements de surface et estimation des paramètres statiques incertains du modèle, 2) assimilation des données GNSS et InSAR, 3) mise en évidence des avantages ou des inconvénients de l'EnKF par rapport à une technique d'inversion bayésienne. Les résultats montrent que l’EnKF fonctionne de manière satisfaisante et que l'assimilation de données semble prometteuse pour la surveillance en temps réel des volcans.La deuxième partie de la thèse est dédiée à l'application de la stratégie mise au point précédemment à l’exploitation des données GNSS inter-éruptives enregistrées de 2004 à 2011 au volcan Grímsvötn en Islande, afin de tester notre capacité à prédire la rupture d'une chambre magmatique en temps réel. Nous avons introduit ici le concept de ``niveau critique'' basé sur l’estimation de la probabilité d'une éruption à chaque pas de temps. Cette probabilité est définie à partir de la proportion d'ensembles de modèles qui dépassent un seuil critique, initialement assigné selon une distribution donnée. Nos résultats montrent que lorsque 25 +/- 1 % des ensembles du modèle ont dépassé la surpression critique une éruption est imminente. De plus, dans ce chapitre, nous élargissons également les tests synthétiques précédents en améliorant la stratégie EnKF d'assimilation des données géodésiques pour l'adapter à l’utilisation de données réelles en nombre limité. Les outils de diagnostiques couramment utilisés en assimilation de données sont mis en oeuvre et présentés.Enfin, je démontre qu'en plus de son intérêt pour prédire les éruptions volcaniques, l'assimilation séquentielle de données géodésiques basée sur l'utilisation de l'EnKF présente un potentiel unique pour apporter une information sur l'alimentation profonde du système volcanique. En utilisant le modèle dynamique à deux réservoirs pour le système de plomberie de Grímsvötn et en supposant une géométrie fixe et des propriétés magmatiques invariantes, nous mettons en évidence que l'apport basal en magma sous Grímsvötn diminue de 85 % au cours des 10 mois précédant le début de l'événement de rifting de Bárdarbunga. La perte d'au moins 0.016 km3 dans l'approvisionnement en magma de Grímsvötn est interprétée comme une conséquence de l'accumulation de magma sous Bárdarbunga et de l'alimentation consécutive de l'éruption Holuhraun à 41 km de distance. / Tracking magma emplacement at shallow depth as well as its migration towards the Earth's surface is crucial to forecast volcanic eruptions.With the recent advances in Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) imaging and the increasing number of continuous Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks recorded on volcanoes, it is now possible to provide continuous and spatially extensive evolution of surface displacements during inter-eruptive periods. For basaltic volcanoes, these measurements combined with simple dynamical models can be exploited to characterise and to constrain magma pressure building within one or several magma reservoirs, allowing better predictive information on the emplacement of magma at shallow depths. Data assimilation—a sequential time-forward process that best combines models and observations, sometimes a priori information based on error statistics, to predict the state of a dynamical system—has recently gained popularity in various fields of geoscience (e.g. ocean-weather forecasting, geomagnetism and natural resources exploration). In this dissertation, I present the very first application of data assimilation in volcanology from synthetic tests to analyzing real geodetic data.The first part of this work focuses on the development of strategies in order to test the applicability and to assess the potential of data assimilation, in particular, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) using a simple two-chamber dynamical model (Reverso2014) and artificial geodetic data. Synthetic tests are performed in order to address the following: 1) track the magma pressure evolution at depth and reconstruct the synthetic ground surface displacements as well as estimate non-evolving uncertain model parameters, 2) properly assimilate GNSS and InSAR data, 3) highlight the strengths and weaknesses of EnKF in comparison with a Bayesian-based inversion technique (e.g. Markov Chain Monte Carlo). Results show that EnKF works well with the synthetic cases and there is a great potential in utilising data assimilation for real-time monitoring of volcanic unrest.The second part is focused on applying the strategy that we developed through synthetic tests in order to forecast the rupture of a magma chamber in real time. We basically explored the 2004-2011 inter-eruptive dataset at Grímsvötn volcano in Iceland. Here, we introduced the concept of “eruption zones” based on the evaluation of the probability of eruption at each time step estimated as the percentage of model ensembles that exceeded their failure overpressure values initially assigned following a given distribution. Our results show that when 25 +/- 1% of the model ensembles exceeded the failure overpressure, an actual eruption is imminent. Furthermore, in this chapter, we also extend the previous synthetic tests by further enhancing the EnKF strategy of assimilating geodetic data in order to adapt to real world problems such as, the limited amount of geodetic data available to monitor ice-covered active volcanoes. Common diagnostic tools in data assimilation are presented.Finally, I demonstrate that in addition to the interest of predicting volcanic eruptions, sequential assimilation of geodetic data on the basis of EnKF shows a unique potential to give insights into volcanic system roots. Using the two-reservoir dynamical model for Grímsvötn 's plumbing system and assuming a fixed geometry and constant magma properties, we retrieve the temporal evolution of the basal magma inflow beneath Grímsvötn that drops up to 85% during the 10 months preceding the initiation of the Bárdarbunga rifting event. The loss of at least 0.016 km3 in the magma supply of Grímsvötn is interpreted as a consequence of magma accumulation beneath Bárdarbunga and subsequent feeding of the Holuhraun eruption 41 km away.