This thesis is the first study that provides comprehensive empirical evidence on both the impacts of the target interest rate news from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) on the Australian financial markets, and the spillover effects of the target interest rate news from the US Federal Reserves (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) on the Asia Pacific's equity and currency markets. This thesis contributes to the current literature in several ways. First, while there is ample evidence in the literature suggesting that the markets would not react to what is already expected but will react to the news, the current literature on the RBA's target rate effects is still limited to the investigation of the overall announcement impact on the first moment of the Australian market return only. Therefore, this thesis firstly comprehensively investigates the impacts of the unexpected components of the RBA's target rate announcements (or news) on the first two moments of various segments of the Australian financial markets including interest rate changes, the Australian dollar and stock market returns. In so doing, this thesis contributes to the current literature on the impacts of domestic target interest rate news. Second, while the established literature seems to be missing a thorough investigation of the spillover effects of the Fed's and the ECB's news on the Asia Pacific markets, this thesis provides comprehensive evidence on the spillover effects of the Fed's and the ECB's target rate news on both the mean and volatility of the Asia Pacific's stock and currency returns. Furthermore, we not only document the presence of the news spillover effects but also highlight the incremental explanatory power of the target interest rate news in the presence of the indirect effects from the US's and euro area's markets to the Asia-Pacific markets. To this end, this thesis contributes to the literature on spillover effects of foreign target interest rate news. Third, while the literature is silent on how quickly the target interest rate news is absorbed in foreign markets, this thesis takes a step forward and breaks down the daily horizon into the overnight and the intraday horizons. In so doing, the thesis examines the absorption speed of target rate news in the Asia-Pacific markets. This is an important issue because there might be potential for a diverse array of response dynamics across countries due to heterogeneous market developments, nature of monetary policy synchronization, and financial and real integration with the U.S. and the euro area. Specifically, this thesis presents three independent empirical inquiries that contribute to the literature on domestic and spillover effects of the target interest rate news. Chapter 4 provides comprehensive empirical evidence for the impacts of the RBA's target rate news on various segments of the Australian financial markets during the period from 1998 to 2006. We also investigate the spillover effects of the US Fed's news on the Australian financial markets. We show that the RBA's and the Fed's news significantly affect the Australian financial markets in line with a priori expectations. However, while the RBA's news raises volatility in the Australian financial markets, the volatility was significantly lower in all market segments following the Fed's news. The spillover effects of the US Fed's and the ECB's target interest rate news on the mean and the volatility of twelve Asia Pacific's stock markets' returns are examined in Chapter 5, and seven Asia Pacific exchange rates against the US dollar and the euro over the period 1999-2006 are carried out in Chapter 6. The spillover effects on the conditional mean are generally consistent with the literature where a majority of Asia Pacific stock markets shows significant negative returns and a majority of currencies depreciates against the US dollar and the euro in response to the Fed's and the ECB's unexpected rate rises. Furthermore, in response to the two target rate news, the conditional volatility of the Asia Pacific stock markets was higher while the market calming effects have been observed for the currency markets and both the Fed and the ECB news elicit persisting volatility responses. We conjecture that as the ECB's news tends to confirm the Fed's earlier decision, this relationship might help reduce uncertainties in the Asia Pacific currency markets upon the future path of target interest rates from both the Central Banks, which ultimately results in into a lower volatility level. These findings are important not only to the Asia Pacific’s policy makers to help them improve the conduct of monetary policy but also to market participants in designing trading mechanisms as well as risk management strategies in response to both domestic and external interest rate shocks. Furthermore, these findings also shed light on the lead-lag relationship between the Fed and the ECB in making policy decisions. The notion that the ECB follows the Fed in setting its policy is so strong amongst market participants that empirical evidence seems to be crucial. Despite the fact that the ECB's news arrives after the Fed's news, this study provides evidence that the ECB's news has its own merits in the Asia Pacific markets and helps resolve differences in beliefs among market participants.

In this thesis we use techniques from white noise analysis to study solutions of semilinear stochastic differential equations in a Hilbert space H: {dX[subscript]t = (AX[subscript]t + F(t,X[subscript]t)) dt + ơ(t,X[subscript]t) δB[subscript]t, t∈ (0,T], X[subscript]0 = ξ, where A is a generator of either a C[subscript]0-semigroup or an n-times integrated semigroup, and B is a cylindrical Wiener process. We then consider applications to forward interest rate models, such as in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. We also reformulate a phenomenological model of the forward rate. / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Science, 2009

In this thesis we use techniques from white noise analysis to study solutions of semilinear stochastic differential equations in a Hilbert space H: {dX[subscript]t = (AX[subscript]t + F(t,X[subscript]t)) dt + ơ(t,X[subscript]t) δB[subscript]t, t∈ (0,T], X[subscript]0 = ξ, where A is a generator of either a C[subscript]0-semigroup or an n-times integrated semigroup, and B is a cylindrical Wiener process. We then consider applications to forward interest rate models, such as in the Heath-Jarrow-Morton framework. We also reformulate a phenomenological model of the forward rate. / Thesis (Ph.D.) -- University of Adelaide, School of Mathematical Science, 2009

Thesis (M. Com.)--University of Canterbury, 2009. / Typescript (photocopy). "February 2009." Includes bibliographical references (leaves 57-60). Also available via the World Wide Web.

Thesis (M.Com. (Economics & Economic History)) - Rhodes University, 2009. / A thesis submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Masters in Commerce (Financial Markets)

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Stanford University, 2001. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 119-121).

Este trabalho pretende abordar a teoria monetária sob a ótica keynesiana. A partir da análise da obra de John Maynard Keynes, apresenta os principais pontos sobre os quais a teoria pós-keynesiana irá se embasar. Mostra como a endogeneidade da moeda se transforma em um ponto fundamental da teoria pós-keynesiana, após o trabalho seminal de Nicholas Kaldor. Seria responsabilidade de Basil Moore o aprofundamento dessas ideias, condensadas sob a forma da total endogeneidade da moeda e da exogeneidade da taxa de juros, que se torna o instrumento prevalecente de política monetária. Tal vertente ficou denominada como horizontalista. A partir da crítica a esse posicionamento, formou-se a abordagem estruturalista, aqui representada por Stephen Rousseas e fortemente influenciada por Hyman Minsky. O presente trabalho propõe que o desenvolvimento concomitante das duas vertentes tem aproximado os teóricos de cada abordagem. Nesse ínterim, com base nos trabalhos de Mark Setterfield e Giuseppe Fontana, apresenta uma proposta definitiva de conciliação entre o horizontalismo e o estruturalismo a partir da incorporação da dinâmica de formação da oferta de moeda. Com isso, permite a análise de casos especificamente localizados no tempo e no espaço, de forma que consegue incorporar os principais pontos elaborados anteriormente por Keynes. A fim de conciliar o desenvolvimento da teoria com a construção de políticas monetárias, procede com a aplicação no caso brasileiro pós-Plano Real. A análise permite mostrar a presença de características estruturalistas e horizontalistas, transparecendo o benefício que uma teoria que concilie as duas vertentes presta para a teoria econômica. Além disso, mostra como o Novo Consenso Monetário, aqui representado apenas pelo modelo de Metas de Inflação, aparenta incorporar a crítica pós-keynesiana, porém ainda se prende com afinco aos cânones que são justamente a base da crítica. Por fim, ressalta a importância de se perceber a definição exógena da taxa de juros como um elemento fundamental e inevitável da influência política nas decisões econômicas. / This study addresses the monetary theory in a Keynesian perspective. Starting from the John Maynard Keynes’ analysis, it presents the main issues upon which the post-Keynesian theory is based. It shows how the endogenous money supply becomes a key point of the post-Keynesian theory after the seminal work of Nicholas Kaldor. Basil Moore would be responsible to deepen these ideas, condensed in the form of the total endogenous money supply and interest rate exogeneity, which becomes the prevailing monetary policy instrument. This strand was referred to as horizontalist. Starting from the criticism of this posture, structuralist approach was formed, and is represented here by Stephen Rousseas, although strongly influenced by Hyman Minsky. The present work proposes that the concurrent development of the two approaches has gradually approximated both strands. Therefore, based on the work of Giuseppe Fontana and Mark Setterfield, it presents a definitive proposal for reconciling horizontalism and structuralism through the incorporation of the money supply dynamics. This allows analyses of specifically localized cases, so that it can incorporate the main points previously established by Keynes. In order to reconcile theoretical development with the construction of monetary policy, it proceeds with the application to the Brazilian case after the Plano Real. The analysis allows showing the presence of structuralist and horizontalist characteristics, demonstrating the benefit that a theory that reconciles both approaches provides for economic analysis. Furthermore, it shows how the New Monetary Consensus, represented here only by Inflation Targeting model, appears to incorporate post-Keynesian critique, but still holds tight to the canons which were precisely the basis of criticism. Finally, it emphasizes the importance of realizing the exogenous determination of interest rates as a fundamental and inevitable element of political influence on economic decisions.

[pt] O presente trabalho visa verificar a operação de carry trade. A lucratividade desta operação é observada quando a diferença de taxa de juros entre os dois países em análise é maior que a variação cambial do período. A verificação da operação, conforme literatura do tema, é realizada através do modelo de paridade descoberta de taxa de juros (PDTJ). A rejeição do modelo, vista através de regressão, possibilita a aceitação da lucratividade da operação. Este estudo, portanto, analisa esta operação entre o Brasil, país de alta taxa de juros e Estados Unidos, país de baixa taxa de juros. Ademais, o estudo visa analisar a operação em um momento de instabilidade econômica, período de 2005 a 2016, no qual consta a crise de 2008 que impactou fortemente as duas economias. / [en] The present work aims to check the carry trade operation. The profitability of this operation is observed when the interest rate difference between the two countries under analysis is greater than the exchange variation for the same period. The literature of carry trade is verified through the uncovered interest rate parity model (UIP). Rejection of the model, performed through regression, makes it possible to accept the profitability of the operation. This study, therefore, analyzes this operation between Brazil, a country with high interest rates and the United States, a country with low interest rates. In addition, the study aims to analyze the operation in a time of economic instability, from 2005 to2016, which includes the crisis of 2008 that strongly impacted the two economies.

The thesis empirically examined the implications of microfinance scaling up or sustainability on outreach in Nigeria. Basically, two methodologies were used namely, panel data econometric and survey methods. The panel dataset of 752 microfinance banks in Nigeria was used during the period 2011-2014, while the survey was conducted on some selected microfinance banks in Federal Capital Territory, Abuja in 2014. The findings from the thesis showed that, at the national level, yield, labour cost, orientation, efficiency, gender and size of loans are the major drivers of microfinance banks‟ sustainability in Nigeria. While at the state level, microfinance banks sustainability is driven by orientation and loan size. Findings also showed that sustainable MFBs tend to be more focused on the poor clients. The thesis showed that lending to female clients improves repayment rate of MFBs in Nigeria. Corroborating the regression result, the survey findings also suggest that lending to women had improved and enhanced repayment rate. In view of these findings, the thesis recommends that sustainability and outreach are not necessarily incompatible. However in pursuing sustainability greater attention should be on female clients, as greater lending to women would improve the repayment rate of MFBs and further engendered the industry sustainability.

Este trabalho teve como finalidade testar a validade da teoria sobre flutuações na estrutura a termo da taxa de juros – a Hipótese das Expectativas – que estabelece em linhas gerais, que a taxa de juros de longo prazo é formado como uma média das taxas de juros de curto prazo esperadas para o futuro mais um prêmio de risco invariente no tempo; desde a adoção do sistema de Metas para Inflação, com base na estrutura elaborada por Campbell e Shiller (1987, 1991). Apesar de problemas potencias, este exercício possui relevância na medida em que as análises em sua maioria corroboram com os fundamentos pelo que se conclui de forma favorável a validade do modelo. As Evidencias empíricas sugerem que a adoção da estrutura de Metas para Inflação tem apresentado um efeito amortecedor de choques na taxa de juros sobre a estrutura a termo. Com base nos resultados obtidos fica evidente que existe algum grau de antecipação das ações de política monetária pelos participantes de mercado e que, portanto, mudanças na meta para a taxa de juros de curto prazo podem ser previstas e são incorporadas as taxas de juros de mercado, ao menos parcialmente. / The aim of this study was to test the expectation theory of term structure of interest rate to the Brazilian economy under the model developed by Campbell and Shiller (19987, 1991). The Expectation Hypothesis (EH) of term structure of interest rate define that the long-term rate is determined by market’s expectation for the shortterm rate plus a constant risk premium. I found that the forecasting decline with the increasing of maturity spectrum but, a causality test granger provide ambiguous results in some test. Under the Inflation Targeting structure the result show that the agents foresee, at least partially, the monetary policy’s decisions. In general way the results support EH theory for Brazilian data.