This study examines the relationship between unemployment rates and oil price, oil price uncertainty, and interest rates. This relation is examined by testing for both cointegration and causality between the variables. By employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method this study managed to examine the long-run cointegration between unemployment rates oil price, oil price uncertainty, and interest rates. A modification of the ARDL method is the error correction method which was used to find the short-run dynamics and the speed of convergence back to equilibrium after a shock. Fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) regression was then applied to find the optimal estimates of the long-run coefficients for the regressions. The Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test is used to find the direction of causality between the variables. These tests were conducted on Sweden, Norway, Denmark, and Finland on monthly data from January 2008 to February 2020. A cointegration relationship was found for Sweden, Norway, and Denmark. The long-run coefficients from the FMOLS regression showed that increased oil prices lead to increased unemployment rates for Sweden and Denmark. All countries except Denmark show evidence of causality from oil prices on unemployment indicating a strong relationship between these two variables. Some countries show causality from oil price uncertainty and interest rates on unemployment rates. These results provide important guidance for policymakers on how to design good economic policies.

Today’s market situation for real estate and property developers in Sweden is very unique. It is characterized by low to negative interest rates and low to no inflation. However, many of the existing economic theories are based on positive interest rates and a positive inflation. This has resulted in uncertainties for investors and market players how to assess this new situation and be able to adequately predict how this will affect the real estate market. The purpose of this thesis has been to investigate how a low interest rate and inflation environment affects real estate, as an investment alternative. The thesis looks closer on the Japanese market since they have had a low interest rate and inflation environment from the middle of 1990’s. The thesis has investigated what kind of relationship that exists between the return but also the prices from real estate and different macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, the inflation and the GDP growth. The thesis has been performed at Vasakronan, a leading property company in Sweden. Vasakronan management has provided valuable guidance and assisted in making prioritizations of the very extensive data material. Real estate can be considered a good investment alternative and that they still generate a rate of return over time in a low interest rate and inflation environment. Furthermore the findings show that the interest rates and the inflation do not have any direct effect on the real estate returns in a low interest rate and inflation environment. However, we have found that it exist other variables that affect the real estate returns which in turn are affected by the interest rates and the inflation meaning that the returns for real estate are indirectly influenced by the interest rates and inflation. One of the most important variables is the GDP growth, which has an influential impact on the real estate returns. The demand and supply for real estate as well as the expectation concerning the future is also variables that influence the real estate market and returns. As long as the economy is growing as well as the demand is high and future expectations is positive, real estate can still be considered to be a relative secure and good investment. / Dagens situation på fastighetsmarknaden är väldigt unik. Den är präglad av låga och negativa räntor och låg inflation. Många av de existerande ekonomiska teorierna är baserade på positiva räntor och en positiv inflation. Detta har resulterat i osäkerheter på marknaden hur denna situation kan komma att påverka fastighetsmarknaden i framtiden. Syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka hur fastigheter som ett investeringsalternativ uppför sig i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation. I arbetet undersöker vi närmare Japans fastighetsmarknad eftersom de har haft låga räntor och inflation enda sedan mitten av 1990-talet. Vi kommer vidare undersöka vad för relation som existerar mellan både avkastningen på fastigheter och fastighetspriserna gentemot olika makroekonomiska variabler. De makroekonomiska variablerna är räntan, inflationen och ekonomisk tillväxt i form av BNP. Detta arbete har skrivits i sammarbete med Vasakronan, Sveriges största fastighetsbolag där de har assisterat oss I nödvänding vägledning under arbetsprocessen. Beträffande hur fastigheter uppför sig i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation som är observerat idag har vi funnit att de fortfarande genererar en avkastning över tid och kan anses som ett bra investeringsalternativ. Vi har funnit att räntorna och inflationen inte verkar ha samma direkta effekt som kunde förväntas gällande avkastningarna för fastigheter i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation. Däremot har vi funnit att det existerar andra variabler som påverkar fastigheters avkastning, vilka är direkt påverkade av räntorna och inflationen. Det betyder att räntorna och inflationen ändå indirekt påverkar fastigheters avkastningar. En av de viktigaste faktorerna är den ekonomiska tillväxten som har en tydlig påverkan på fastigheters avkastning och priser. Utbud och efterfråga tillsammans med framtida förväntningar är också viktiga variabler som påverkar fastighetsmarknaden och deras avkastningar. Så länge det existerar ekonomisk tillväxt tillsammans med optimistiska förväntningar på framtiden och en hög efterfrågan så kan fastigheter betraktas som en god och ett säkert investeringsalternativ

How banks set the mortgage interest rates and the sizes of the mortgage margins they obtain from making mortgage loans always attract attention from households, government authorities, politicians and market actors. This thesis studies the relationship between Swedish mortgage interest rates and mortgage lending institutions’ costs of obtaining funds, and how the gross margins of mortgage interest rates influence the banks stock returns. In general, banks’ mortgage margins are correlated with their funding costs, which are typically reflected in the yields of mortgage bonds (covered bonds), interbank rates (STIBOR) and the repo rate. How-ever the correlations change over time and sometimes the mortgage margins are relatively low and sometimes relatively high. Since mortgage loans play an important role in banks’ lending business, the related interest rate margins should influence banks’ profitability and therefore the performance of their stock. Everything else equal, higher margins should result in higher stock returns. I have collected and constructed a time-series data set based on Swedbank mortgage rates, Swedbank stock prices, yields on government bonds, yields on mortgage bonds, STIBOR interest rates, and repo rate. Both descriptive analysis and econometric models are applied to analyze the time-varying characteristics of the financial data. The thesis covers unconditional correlation (Pearson correlations), and conditional correlation through applying DCC-GARCH models. Besides, ARCH and GARCH models are employed to measure the ARCH and GARCH effects of the spread (premium) terms between interest rates. The results from descriptive analysis and econometric models present the tight relationships between the mortgage interest rates and the corresponding funding costs, and show the posi-tive but low correlations between mortgage margins and bank’s stock returns. The results also support the existence of time-vary volatilities (risk) of spread (premium) terms and quantify the growth of return for the certain increase in risk taking.

Univerzita Karlova v Praze Fakulta sociálních věd Institut ekonomických studií Název disertační práce/ Dissertation title Interest Rate Risk and Liquidity Risk of Banking Books in the Czech Republic Anglický překlad / Title in English Interest Rate Risk and Liquidity Risk of Banking Books in the Czech Republic Autor/ka/ Author Mag. Hana Džmuráňová Rok zpracování/ Year 2021 Školitel / Advisor Doc. Ing. Zdeněk Tůma CSc. Počet stran / No. of pages 197 Abstract in English The thesis Interest Rate Risk and Liquidity Risk of Banking Books in the Czech Republic deals with the management of interest rate risk and liquidity risk stemming from the core banking system purpose - the maturity transformation. Across five articles, we provide comprehensive theoretical description, regulatory background, and develop models for embedded behavioural options of client products such as non-maturity deposits, with special focus on savings accounts in the Czech Republic in one of our case studies, or loans with prepayment option. We apply our models on the major Czech and Slovak banks and we calculate the exposure of those banks to interest rate risk in terms of regulatory guidelines. We derive that all banks in our analysis are positioned to benefit when interest rates increase as demand deposits like current accounts are...

Los modelos de sobrevivencia o duración son útiles para modelar la distribución subyacente del periodo en el que ocurre el evento específico. El presente artículo analiza la duración de la tasa de referencia del Banco Central de Reserva del Perú (BCRP) y sus determinantes, haciendo uso de los modelos de sobrevivencia para un análisis que incluye los riesgos competitivos. En presencia de riesgos competitivos, el enfoque convencional de la duración puede obtener resultados sesgados y no interpretables. Por lo que, siguiendo la propuesta inicial de Gutiérrez y Lozano (2010), se recurre al análisis de riesgos competitivos a fin de analizar la duración entre los cambios de tasa de política monetaria en Perú, tomando en cuenta los dos escenarios posibles (incrementos y recortes) y magnitudes (25 pb y más de 25 pb); así como las variables que inciden en su comportamiento. Las regresiones bajo riesgos competitivos sugieren un comportamiento asimétrico en lo que respecta a las variables que definen los cambios de la tasa de referencia (incrementos o recortes). Variables como la inflación, producto y la tasa de referencia del periodo afectan al riesgo de ambos estados; sin embargo, un recorte en la tasa de referencia es también determinado por la brecha de la inflación local respecto a la extranjera y la duración de la tasa de referencia previa. En particular, los resultados son consistentes con una economía regida bajo el marco de metas de inflación. Se extrae que, el BCRP puede mantener la tasa de referencia en un nivel constante hasta que las variables de interés, como la inflación, se encuentren en condiciones críticas. Los resultados de las pruebas también confirman que la duración de tasas con cambios pequeños y grandes no son estadísticamente diferentes en las subidas de tasas. / Survival or duration models are useful for modeling the underlying distribution of the period in which the specific event occurs. This article analyzes the duration of the monetary policy rate of Peru and its determinants, in base of survival models including competing risks. In the presence of competing risks, the conventional duration method could get biased and uninterpretable results. Therefore, following the initial proposal of Gutierrez and Lozano (2010), this article includes competitive risks in order to analyze the duration between changes in the monetary policy rate of Peru, taking into account two possible scenarios, rate hikes and rate cuts, and magnitudes (25 bp and more than 25 bp); as well as the variables that affect their behavior. The regressions under competing risks suggest an asymmetric behavior between the variables that define the specific event of the monetary policy rate (increases or decreases). The models for rate hikes and rate cuts agree in finding the influences of variables, in the risk of both specific events: inflation, domestic product and the monetary policy rate. However, a cut in the monetary policy rate is also determined by the gap between local and US inflation and the duration of the previous rate. The results are consistent with an economy under the inflation targeting framework. As an inference, the Central Reserve Bank of Peru can maintain the reference rate at a constant level until the variables of interest, such as inflation, are in critical conditions. Test results also confirm that the duration of rates with small and large changes are not statistically different in rate hikes. / Trabajo de investigación

In the last two decades, duration analysis has been largely applied to fixed - income securities . However, since rising and falling interest rates have been determined to be a major cause of stock price movements, equity duration has received a great deal of attention. The duration of an equity is a measure of its interest rate risk. Duration is the sensitivity of the price of an equity with respect to the interest rate. Convexity is the sensitivity of duration with respect to the interest rate. The analysis revealed that the fractional price change and market risk of equities can be explained by duration and convexity.

Ett flertal teorier försöker förklara de starka fluktuationer växelkurser under rörlig regim uppvisar vid monetära policychocker. En av dessa teorier, Rüdiger Dornbusch:s överreaktionsmodell, menar att fluktuationer kan förklaras av skillnader i den tid varurespektive kapitalmarknaden behöver för att anpassa sig till det förändrade penningutbudet. Denna studie avser utreda modellens empiriska förklaringsförmåga genom att applicera den på fallet Schweiz 2015, där en stor och oväntad centralbanksåtgärd skapade kraftiga reaktioner på valutamarknaden. Genom ett t-test testas den potentiella överreaktionens signifikans. T-statistikan påvisar starkt stöd för att växelkursen rör sig i enlighet med Dornbusch:s modell. Diverse känslighetstester genomförs, om vilket samtliga vidimerar resultaten.

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In 2005, all groups listed on European stock exchanges are required to prepare their consolidated financial statements according to International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS). IFRS are different from local regulations across Europe in many aspects, and observers expect the transition process thorny and resource-draining for the companies that undertake it. The study explores transition difficulties by Swedish bank groups on the way of implementing IAS 39, Financial Instruments: Recognition and Measurement. Deemed the most controversial and challenging standard for adoption by the financial sector, it indeed poses new demandson classification, recognition and measurment of financial instruments, and sets out new hedge accounting rules, previously unseen in Swedish practice. Additionaly, the structure of bank's balance sheets makes IAS 39 also the central one among all other standards in terms of numbers of balance sheet items it impacts. The study uses qualitative method to explore whether transition to IAS 39 is likely to improve transparency in reporting derivatives. Focus is on use of interest rate swaps as hedging instruments in mitigation of interest rate risk. It is concluded that differences between two reporting frameworks have been well understood by the banks early in the implementation process. A negative feature of the standard is increased volatility in earnings as a result of more wide-spread reliance on fair value measurement method. This accounting volatility impedes comparability of performance results, as well as conceals true efficiency of economic hedge relationships. To some degree, the volatility can be minimized by the application of hedge accounting. However, a bank must methodically follow a set of rigourous if hegde accounting is to be adopted. Fair value is a more straightforward alternative to hedge accounting , but it brings in additional concerns, and has not yet been endorsed in the EU. It is additionally argued that recognition of all derivatives on BS and measurement at fair value are two important features of IAS 39 that indeed increases reporting transparency by minimizing risk of undisclosed hidden losses.

I denna uppsats undersöks genom en kvalitativ metod vilka finansieringssätt somkommunala bostadsbolag använder sig av samt hur räntehöjningarna i Sverige det senasteåret har påverkat de kommunala bostadsbolagens verksamhet och agerande. För attbesvara frågeställningen har intervjuer genomförts med sju olika kommunala bostadsbolagoch med den kommunala långivaren Kommuninvest. Informationen från dessa intervjuer harsedan sammanställts och analyserats för att komma fram till ett resultat och en slutsats.Resultatet av den kvalitativa undersökningen visar att kommunala bostadsbolag till skillnadfrån privata bostadsbolag inte måste förlita sig på att låna kapital på egen hand utanuteslutande lånar med hjälp av kommunen man tillhör genom antingen en kommunalinternbank eller ett kommunalt borgensåtagande. Följaktligen får kommunala bostadsbolag iregel mer fördelaktiga lånevillkor och billigare ränta än privata bostadsbolag eftersomkommuner anses vara stabilare låntagare än enskilda företag och i de flesta fall har enväldigt god kreditrating.Slutsatsen av studien är att kommunala bostadsbolag väljer finansieringssätt främst utifrånstorleken på bostadsbolaget och kommunen som det är beläget i, vilket finansieringssätt somär billigast för tillfället samt vilka preferenser personerna som arbetar med inlåning ochfinansiering i bostadsbolagen har kring de olika finansieringssätten. En gemensam nämnareär dock att i stort sett alla kommunala bostadsbolag förutom ett fåtal lånar av Kommuninvestsom har konkurrerat ut affärsbankerna de senaste åren och blivit den överlägset vanligastefinansieringskällan för kommunala bostadsbolag.Undersökningen visade också att kommunala bostadsbolag inte har påverkats nämnvärt avdet senaste årets ränteökningar eftersom många bolag har haft långa bindningstider medfast ränta, en mindre andel rörlig ränta i låneportföljen samt andra skydd mot ränteriskensom exempelvis räntetak. Därför har andra kostnadsökningar som orsakats av den kraftigtökade inflationen varit mer betydande. Dock kommer ränteökningarna att få en störrepåverkan på många av bostadsbolagen de kommande åren eftersom många bolag har lånsom löper ut under den perioden och då kommer behöva förnya dessa lån till en högre ränta. / In this essay, a qualitative method is used to examine which financing methods municipalreal estate companies use and how the interest rate increase in Sweden the past year hasaffected the municipal real estate companies' operations and actions. To answer thequestion, interviews with seven various municipal real estate companies were conducted andone with the municipal lender Kommuninvest. The information from these interviews has thenbeen compiled and analyzed to present a result and a conclusion.The results of the qualitative study show that, unlike private real estate companies, municipalreal estate companies don't have to rely on borrowing capital on their own, but exclusivelyborrow with the help of the municipality they belong to through either a municipal internalbank or a municipal guarantee commitment. Consequently, municipal real estate companiesusually receive more favorable loan terms and cheaper interest rates than private real estatecompanies because municipalities are considered to be more stable borrowers thanindividual companies and in most cases they have a very good credit rating.The conclusion of the study is that municipal real estate companies choose financingmethods primarily based on the size of the real estate company and the municipality in whichit is located, the cheapest financing method at the moment and what preferences the peoplewho work with deposits and financing in the housing companies have regarding the variousfinancing methods. A common denominator, however, is that virtually all municipal realestate companies, apart from a few, borrow from Kommuninvest, which has out-competedthe commercial banks in recent years and become by far the most common source offinancing for municipal real estate companies.The study also showed that municipal real estate companies haven’t been significantlyaffected by the past year's interest rate increases because most of them have had long-termfixed interest rates, a smaller proportion of variable interest rates in the loan portfolio andother protections against interest rate risks such as interest rate caps. Therefore, other costincreases caused by the sharply increased inflation have been more significant. However,the interest rate increases will have a greater impact on several real estate companies in theupcoming years because many companies have loans that expire during that period and willhave to renew these loans at a higher interest rate.