Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 1985. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 152-156). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Ohio State University, 1985. / Includes vita. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 151-158). Available online via OhioLINK's ETD Center.

Today's monetary policy is a historic one, where the introduction of negative interest rates has started a new "age" of unconventional monetary policy and some argue that there is a need for further unconventional monetary tools. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze negative interest rates, how they came to be, what long-term eect they have on economic stability and if its possible to get out. We do this by analyzing existing theoretical and empirical research, including a theoretical model based on household consumption, a cost of money function and an illustration of the liquidity trap. Thereby the thesis concludes that the short term positive eects of negative interest rate policy get exhausted in the long-term as the negative eects increase over time, thus creating an environment of excessive borrowing both by consumers and governments that might lead to instability and economic downturn in the long-term. Furthermore, the negative interest rate policy is creating a diculty of getting out of the negative interest rate environment because the consumers and the rms have gotten used to the "cheap money" and might have hard time nancing day to day operations in normal interest rate world.

Este trabalho apresenta uma abordagem inovadora para a modelagem do risco cambial. Ao invés de utilizar regressões de MQO \"equação por equação\", explora-se a correlação contemporânea e estrutural entre os choques de preferência num sistema de equações de precificação de ativos. Estima-se um modelo via SUR em uma amostra de excessos de retorno de países entre 1999Q1 e 2014Q2, utilizando-se novos fatores de risco associados ao PIB das diferentes economias. O modelo empírico é derivado de preferências que são consistentes com um problema de economia aberta, em contraste com a abordagem habitual que utiliza o crescimento do consumo de bens duráveis e não-duráveis como fatores de risco. A estratégia econométrica escolhida leva a uma melhora significativa da precisão das quantidades de risco (betas) estimadas. A relação positiva entre taxas de juros e quantidades de risco, contudo, não é corroborada para todos os betas. / This thesis presents an innovative approach for modeling currency risk. Instead of using equation by equation OLS, we explore the structural contemporaneous correlation between preference shocks across a system of asset pricing equations. SUR regressions as well as new risk factors lead to a marked improvement in efficiency for the estimation of the quantities of risk (betas) in a sample of country excess returns from 1999Q1 to 2014Q2. However, the monotonic relation between interest rates and quantities of risk is not statistically significant for all betas. Our model is derived from preferences that are consistent to an open economy problem, in contrast to the typical approach of using durable and non-durable consumption growth as risk factors.

A condução da política monetária vem sendo descrita pela literatura recente por meio de uma regra forward-looking do tipo \"Taylor\". Neste contexto, o que a literatura identifica como o Princípio de Taylor indica que, para que haja uma política de controle inflacionário efetiva, o coeficiente de resposta dos juros nominais a um desvio da expectativa de inflação em relação à meta deve ser maior do que um. Deste modo, se este desvio for positivo, será provocado um aumento nos juros reais. No entanto, tomando uma Equação de Fischer também em termos expectacionais, a derivação da Regra nos leva a crer que tal princípio pode ser questionado, sendo necessário que este coeficiente supere ( ) t rr + 1 , ou seja, um mais os juros reais. Neste trabalho é estimada uma Regra de Taylor para o caso brasileiro, país com elevadas taxas de juros reais, buscando comparar o valor deste coeficiente ao valor de ( ) t rr + 1 . O método consiste em um Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), onde os parâmetros seguem passeios aleatórios. São utilizadas diversas combinações de dados. Os resultados mostraram uma política bastante agressiva por parte do Banco Central brasileiro em todos os períodos de análise. / The conduction of monetary policy is being described by recent literature through a forward-looking Taylor rule. In this context, what literature identifies as the Taylor Principle indicates that, for an efficient policy of inflation control, the coefficient of the response of nominal interest rates from the deviation of the inflation expectations in relation to the target should be more than one. If this deviation is positive, it will cause an increase in real interest rates. However, the derivation of the rule shows that this principle can be questioned, and the coefficient must be more than ( ) t rr + 1 , one plus the real interest rate. In this work we estimate a Taylor rule for Brazil, country with high real interest rates, trying to compare the coefficient value to ( ) t rr + 1 . The method consists in a Time-Varying Parameter (TVP), where the parameters follow a random walk process. Varied data combinations are used. The results show a very aggressive policy by the Central Bank in all periods of analysis.

Esta dissertação é um estudo empírico que relaciona variáveis fiscais como dívida pública e déficit primário com a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo, relação, que na literatura empírica como um todo, é bastante ambígua. Quando separamos, desta literatura, os trabalhos que incluem expectativas de déficits, obtemos resultados positivos e significantes, ou seja, que a contenção fiscal reduz a taxa de juros de longo prazo. Ainda nesta literatura, poucos trabalhos fazem uso de dados de painel devido à pouca disponibilidade de dados. Dessa forma, usamos um painel com 25 países e dados anuais entre 1980 e 2009. Assim, estimam-se modelos estáticos e dinâmicos em que a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo é explicada pela dívida pública e, principalmente, o déficit primário, controlando a existência de efeitos fixos para países e anos. Utilizamos, em seguida, modelos não-lineares, para captar efeitos das variáveis fiscais de forma não-linear e com variáveis interativas. Encontra-se uma relação positiva entre as variáveis, indicando que um aumento no déficit primário leva a um aumento na taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo. A magnitude do efeito estimado é semelhante a outros estudos feitos com dados em painel. Os resultados apontam que um aumento em um ponto percentual do déficit primário leva a um aumento de zero a 10 bps sobre a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo. Já para a dívida pública encontramos que, ao contrário do que esperaríamos pela teoria, que seu efeito sobre a taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo é insignificante e menor do que o encontrado na maior parte da literatura, menos de 2 bps, mas semelhante aos de outros trabalhos. Ao contrário de toda literatura para dados em painel, incluímos também a expectativa de déficits, variável que deveria incorporar mais informação do que somente o déficit corrente e, por isso, nossos resultados deveriam ser mais significantes. No entanto, estas variáveis não estão disponíveis para muito anos e, portanto, para esta parte do trabalho nossa amostra se reduz para 1996-2009. Contudo, ao fazermos as mesmas estimações que as anteriores, mas com a expectativa de déficit obtemos coeficientes para o déficit primário insignificantes, nem sempre positivos e baixos. Este resultado parece ser devido à amostra reduzida que temos para expectativa de déficit. / This dissertation is an empirical study that tries to capture the relationship between fiscal variables, such as the public debt and the primary deficit, and the long-term nominal interest rates, a relationship that in the empirical literature as a whole is very ambiguous. However, when, in this literature, we look only at papers that include expected deficits, we obtain positive and significant results. In the same set of studies, few use panel data due to low data availability. We use a panel with 25 countries and annual data between 1980 and 2009. We estimate static and dynamic models in which the long-term nominal interest rate is explained by the public debt and, especially, the primary deficit by controlling for the existence of fixed effects for countries and years. We then estimate non-linear models to capture the non-linear and interactive effects of fiscal variables on interest rates. We find a positive and statistically significant relationship between these variables, indicating that the primary deficit has a positive impact on the long-term nominal interest rate. The magnitude of the estimated effect is similar to other studies with panel data. They show that a one percentage point increase in the primary deficit leads to an increase from zero to 10 bps in the long-term nominal interest rate. As for the public debt, we find that, contrary to what we would expect from economic theory, its effect on the long-term nominal interest rate is negligible and smaller than that found in most of the literature, less than 2 bps, but similar to other panel studies. Unlike the rest of the literature that uses panel data, we included deficit expectations that would incorporate more information than just the current primary deficit and would, therefore, give us more statistically significant results. However, these variables are not available for large periods of time for a panel of countries and, therefore, for this part of our study, our sample is reduced to the period 1996-2009. This time, even though we estimate the same models, but now with the deficit expectations, we now obtain statistically insignificant, sometimes negative and lower coefficients for the primary deficit. Nevertheless, these results seem to be due to the small sample size we have for deficit expectations.

This thesis focuses on the quantitative easing as a tool used by the U.S. central bank in an effor to enhance the expansionary monetary policy even during the reduction of major interest rate close to zero. The aim is to analyze the impact of the first and second round of quantitative easing on the economy of the Unites States of America practiced by Fed. The aim is achieved primarily by using event study, which examined the effect of the first and second round of quantitatitve easing on the yield of U.S. Treasuries. In the context of quantitative easing other economic data such as macroeconomic development of U.S. economy or the situation in the real estat and stock marekts are studied. The second major area of this thesis is the analysis of inflation. The sharp rise of inflation is considered as a one of the major risks associated with quantitative easing. Relationship between quantitative easing and inflation is mainly studied by analyzing the behavior of banks and other economic subjects and by using the results of quantitative easing policiy in the countries which also used that policy.

No description available.

The aim of this paper is to study the effect of interest rates on house price changes in Sweden for the case of one and two dwelling buildings. Basically, three procedures were used for analysis. First, correlation analysis was used to investigate and test if there has been any relationship between interest rates and house price in Sweden in the past two decades. Second, multiple regressions analysis with consideration of hetroskedasticity autocorrelation or HAC (newey-west standard) errors was applied to test the impact of changes of interest rates on house price. Finally, distributed lag model was applied to examine the impact of interest on house price through time. The result shows that there is strong inverse relationship between interest rates (governmental bond rates, mortgage bond rates, lending rates and repo rates) and housing price index. The regression coefficients show that the decrease in the interest rate is followed by corresponding increase in the housing price index for all the given interest rates. The other finding is that more than 92 percent variation in the housing price index is explained by changes in interest rates, changes in net house hold disposable income, inflation rate and supply. The result also shows the lag effects of changes of interest rates on housing price. The major implication of this study is that fluctuations in interest affect homebuyers, home sellers, household incomes and investors. The study also suggests that further detail investigation on house price dynamics is crucial for monetary policy.

This dissertation includes three chapters discussing the importance of bank heterogeneity in monetary policy implementation using tools such as changes in the interest on reserve and the discount window on bank lending. The first two chapters focus on the implications of differences in government regulation, while the third chapter focuses on market competition. The first chapter assesses the effects of a policy reform changing the relative return of holding reserves on the reserves held by U.S. branches of foreign banks compared to conventional domestic banks, using difference-in-differences regression analysis. The second chapter studies the implications of dispersion in the relative return of holding reserves using a liquidity mismatch banking model with different sectors that can trade reserves in an over-the-counter market for federal funds. The model is used to study the effects of changes to regulation, policy rates, and other market conditions on the distribution of reserves across sectors and the federal funds rate. The third chapter documents changes in competition in the loan and deposit market over the last two decades and considers the implications for monetary policy tools using regression analysis compared to simulations of a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model.Chapter 1, titled DEPOSIT INSURANCE AND PORTFOLIO DESIGN OF BANKS, reviews the distinct response of U.S. branches of foreign banks to the monetary policy of interest on reserve balances following a policy reform in 2011. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reform changed the relative return of holding reserves for U.S. branches of foreign banks (foreign banks for short) compared to conventional domestic banks (domestic banks for short). The data show higher excess reserves held by foreign banks following this policy change. A fixed-effects model is used to measure the effect of a change in the FDIC policy on excess reserves held by each sector. A difference-in-difference comparison suggests a difference of 0.16 in reserves to assets of domestic banks compared to foreign banks following the policy change and a more considerable gap of around 0.25 for banks with average assets holdings in the top 15 percentile. Furthermore, the event study confirms that these larger banks widely capture the impact of policy. The next chapter, Chapter 2, titled BANK PORTFOLIO CHOICE AND MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION IN THE FACE OF A NEW FEDERAL FUNDS MARKET, studies the implications of differences in regulation of banks for monetary policy. The chapter presents an equilibrium model in the framework of Bianchi and Bigio (2022) to include two types of bank branches instead of one; domestic banks must hold deposit insurance, while U.S. branches of foreign banks cannot. Deposit insurance allows for a more stable funding source but attaches a higher balance-sheet cost. Calibration finds consistent predictions that explain the higher excess reserves and the sequential credit supply of foreign branches. Moreover, findings suggest that foreign branches are more responsive to monetary policy tools, such as interest on reserves, because their funding source is associated with higher volatility in deposit withdrawals. The monetary policy of changes to the corridor rates in the model is the same across all banks. Still, because U.S. branches of foreign banks face different tradeoffs than U.S domestic banks, monetary policy affects each sector differently. Chapter 3, titled CHANNELS OF MONETARY POLICY WITH IMPERFECT COMPETITION IN THE BANKING SECTOR, uses a relatively new measure of market power proposed by Boone (2008) to estimate the implications of market power on the pass-through of monetary policy for two monetary policy channels. The lending channel and the deposits channel. Data suggest that market power is high in the deposit market and somewhat high in the loan market, with an incline in competition in both sectors in the last two decades preceding 2001. The paper evaluates monetary policy pass-through to deposit and lending rates given the competition across banks using a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model with sticky prices. The central assumption of the model is that the pass-through depends on competition across banks. It includes banks with imperfectly competitive markups for loans to firms, markdowns of deposit rates to consumers, and a monetary policy authority that can either change the federal funds rate or the spread between the federal funds rate and the rate paid on excess reserves. The model estimations align with the empirical evidence suggesting banks will compensate on loan spreads to avoid the contraction in lending caused by higher policy rates, while deposits will fluctuate less, and therefore spreads may increase when market rates increase. / Economics