Les accords mondiaux parrainés par l’ONU pour le développement durable et la réduction des émissions de gaz d'effet de serre, proposent la réduction de la déforestation et l'augmentation de la productivité des zones occupées par les systèmes de production agropastoraux. En Amazonie brésilienne, la déforestation couvre une zone de 760,305.5 km2 en 2014. Les différents usages de la zone déforestée ont des impacts environnementaux et des rendements financiers et sociaux spécifiques. Connaître l'occupation et l'usage des terres ainsi que les systèmes de production prédominants dans cet espace est une condition de base de la planification des actions dédiées au développement durable. Cette étude propose des méthodologies destinées à la cartographie détaillée de l'occupation et de l'usage des terres (LULC), et à l'identification de la régionalisation des systèmes de production agropastoraux. La cartographie LULC de l'Amazonie brésilienne a confirmé les résultats des études antérieures montrant que la plupart des surfaces déboisées sont utilisées principalement pour l'élevage (environ 60%), qu’environ 20% sont couvertes par une végétation secondaire et 5% par l’agriculture annuelle de large échelle. La régionalisation des systèmes de production agropastoraux a été réalisée en deux étapes. La première étape a été effectuée au niveau des divisions administratives municipales, en utilisant des données spatialement explicites de LULC et de déforestation, analysées conjointement avec des données socio-économiques spatialisées au niveau municipal. Les résultats de cette première étape de traitement ont permis d'identifier cinq systèmes de production agropastoraux à l'échelle de l'Etat. La configuration territoriale a ainsi montré que chaque système de production crée différents types de paysages. La deuxième étape a été menée sur des cellules de 10x10 km avec des données spatialement explicites de LULC, de déforestation et une matrice de distance aux infrastructures, et en utilisant des métriques paysagères. Il est alors possible de classer le système de production prédominant dans chaque cellule, et d'identifier l'effet de chaque système de production sur le paysage. Neuf systèmes de production agropastoraux ont été mis en évidence : deux dans les forêts (domaine forestier, phase initiale), trois dans l'agriculture (agriculture stricte, agriculture dominante et aires de coexistence) et quatre dans l'élevage (élevage intensifié pour la viande, élevage non intensifié pour la viande, élevage intensifié pour la viande et le lait et élevage non intensifié pour la viande et le lait). Les méthodologies qui résultent de cette thèse permettront la création d'un système opérationnel de surveillance continu et à faible coût de LULC et des systèmes de production agropastoraux dans les territoires déboisés. Grâce à ce système de surveillance, il sera possible de suivre les impacts des politiques publiques qui visent à un développement durable de la région / Recent global agreements sponsored by UN to sustainable development and reduction of greenhouse gases emission, undergo by the reduction of deforestation and an increase of productivity of the areas occupied by agricultural production systems. In 2014 the Brazilian Amazon deforestation reached 760.305,5 km2. This area has different land uses with different financial and social returns and different environmental impacts. To know the land use and land cover (LULC) and the predominant production systems in this deforested area is a basic condition for planning actions and public policies for sustainable development. This study developed methodologies for detailed LULC mapping, and to regionalization of agricultural production systems. The mapping of LULC of Brazilian Amazon confirmed previous studies, showing that most of the deforested area is used for livestock activity (about 60%), followed by secondary vegetation (about 20%) and annual crops (about 5%). Regionalization of agricultural production systems was carried out in two stages. The first one was carried out at local administrative boundary, using spatially explicit data of LULC and deforestation, analyzed in conjunction with municipal socioeconomic data spatialized at local level. Based on these results we identified, among five agricultural production systems at the state level. The dimension of territorial configuration showed that each agricultural production system form different types of landscapes. The second stage was conduced with cells of 10 X 10 Km, with LULC spatially explicit data, deforestation and a matrix of distance to infrastructure elements, and using landscape metrics. Was possible to classify the predominant agricultural production system in each cell, and identify the effect of these systems on the landscape. Nine agricultural production systems were found: two in forest domains (Forest Domain, Initial Front), three in agriculture domain (Strict Agriculture, Dominant Agriculture and Coexistence Area) and four in livestock domain (Intensified Beef, Not Intensified Beef, Intensified Beef-Milk and Not Intensified Beef-Milk). The methodologies resulted from this thesis will enable the creation of an operational monitoring system of LULC, continuous and at low cost, and also of the prevailing agricultural production system in each of the deforested territory. With this monitoring system, it will be possible to follow up the effect of public policies in the region, looking for sustainable development.

Tropical forests are under continual threat due to deforestation and forest fragmentation processes which are driven by the economic activities growth, mainly agriculture. Replacing forest with other land uses can cause severe impacts on river water quality, altering its physical, chemical and biological characteristics. The Atlantic Forest, in particular, had its original vegetation cover reduced to about 11%, wherein the crop lands expansion and urban sprawl still threatening this important ecosystem and the ecosystem services that it provides. In this sense, the main objective of this study was to investigate the relation between forest cover and water quality of tropical agricultural watersheds. For that, six experimental watersheds with different percentage of forest cover were selected in the Sarapuí River watershed, State of São Paulo, Brazil. Water samples were collected during a hydrologic year to obtain water quality parameters that represent impacts induced by anthropic activities. According to the percentage of forest cover, the watersheds were denominated as \"forested\", when they presented more than 55% of forest cover, and \"degraded\", with less than 35%. Multivariate statistical models were applied to identify differences between these two groups. In a second moment, the relation of land use/land cover within the watershed and within its respective riparian zone, represented in this study by the Permanent Preservation Areas (PPA), with water quality was compared through mixed models and redundancy analysis to identify the main factors that influenced water quality variability. Lastly, a watershed simulation modeling was applied to verify the impact of riparian forest restoration on water quality of the Sarapuí River watershed, wherein each experimental watershed was represented by a sub-watershed in the model. The results showed that the degraded watersheds presented higher values of solids, turbidity, nutrients and coliforms, besides presenting greater temporal data variability compared to forested watersheds. This variation is associated with the stream flow changes during the year. In general, forest cover was related to good water quality, while agriculture and urban areas were responsible for the water quality degradation. Pasture presented mixed impacts, but it was not generally correlated with poor water quality. The water quality parameters responded differently to the influence of land-use/land-cover patterns in the watershed and riparian zone, but the overall water quality is better explained by the landscape composition within the watershed. Nevertheless, the watershed simulation indicated that PPA restoration reduces the sediment and nutrients loading into the river. Thus, it is possible to conclude that tropical forest plays a fundamental role in the water resources conservation, reducing impacts of human activities in watersheds and the watershed management with forest restoration strategies for the entire watershed is critical for the maintenance of water quality to water supply, despite the importance of the riparian zone. / As florestas tropicais estão sob constante ameaça devido ao processo de desmatamento e fragmentação florestal impulsionado pelo crescimento das atividades econômicas, em especial, a agricultura. A substituição de áreas florestadas por outros usos do solo pode causar impactos severos na qualidade da água de rios, alterando suas características físicas, químicas e biológicas. A Mata Atlântica, em especial, teve sua cobertura original reduzida a cerca de 11%, sendo que a expansão de terras cultiváveis e urbanização ainda ameaçam esse importante ecossistema e os serviços ecossistêmicos prestados por ele. Nesse sentido, este estudo propôs investigar a relação da cobertura florestal com a qualidade da água de microbacias agrícolas tropicais. Para tanto, foram selecionadas seis microbacias experimentais com diferentes porcentagens de cobertura florestal na bacia do rio Sarapuí, Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, onde foram feitas coletas de amostras de água por um ano hidrológico para a obtenção de parâmetros que representassem alterações na água induzidas por atividades antrópicas. Inicialmente as microbacias foram classificadas em \"florestadas\" e \"degradadas\", e modelos estatísticos multivariados foram aplicados para identificar diferenças entre os grupos. Em um segundo momento comparou-se a relação do uso e cobertura do solo na microbacia e na Área de Preservação Permanente (APP) com a qualidade da água utilizando-se modelos mistos e análise de redundância para identificar os principais fatores que influenciam a variabilidade da qualidade da água. Por último foi gerado um modelo hidrológico para simular o impacto da restauração da floresta ripária na qualidade da água da bacia do rio Sarapuí onde cada microbacia experimental desse estudo foi representada por uma sub-bacia do modelo. Os resultados mostram que as microbacias degradadas apresentam valores maiores de sólidos, turbidez, nutrientes e coliformes. Além disso, apresentam maior variabilidade temporal dos dados em relação às microbacias florestadas associada às alterações da vazão do rio. Em geral, a cobertura florestal foi relacionada à boa qualidade da água, enquanto que agricultura e ocupação urbana foram os usos do solo responsáveis pela degradação da qualidade da água. O uso pastagem apresentou impactos mistos, porém no geral não foi correlacionado à qualidade da água ruim. Os parâmetros de qualidade da água responderam de forma diferente quanto à influência dos padrões de uso e cobertura do solo na microbacia e na APP, porém, considerando-se todos parâmetros em conjunto, a qualidade da água é melhor explicada pela composição da paisagem da microbacia. Ainda assim, a simulação do modelo indicou que a restauração das APPs reduz a carga de sedimentos e nutrientes para o rio. Com isso, conclui-se que a floresta tropical tem papel fundamental na conservação dos recursos hídricos, reduzindo impactos das atividades humanas exercidas nas microbacias e que, apesar da importância das APPs na redução de poluentes para o rio, o manejo de bacias com estratégias de restauração florestal para toda a microbacia é extremamente importante para a manutenção da qualidade da água para abastecimento.

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The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the influence of land use changes on erosion and runoff conditions. For the purpose of the evaluation, two catchments with different areas and pedological characteristics were selected (the catchment of the river Luha and the catchment of the Hubenov reservoir). In these catchments, a comparison of 26 selected land covers was conducted. The individual land covers were evaluated first in four seasons of the 1950s and 1990s, second according to the today's status of landscape by means of a detailed yearly evaluation conducted between 2002 and 2013, and third according to a land cover conceptual design. Analyses of not only land cover, but also geomorphological, pedological and hydrological conditions were carried out for both of the catchments by means of geographic information system (GIS) tools. The quantification of soil loss was performed by means of two methods – the method USLE with the use of ArcGIS program and the soil loss model WEPP. The crucial factor of the runoff evaluation of the preset end profiles with respect to the formation of concentrated runoffs and their catchment areas was the hydrological model DesQ-MAXQ. The selected land cover scenarios of the river Luha were then exposed to the conditions of a real rainfall that occurred in 2009 and that resulted in floods in the area. Furthermore, a rainfall-runoff model was created for this catchment area in HEC-HMS; the land cover scenarios were again subjected to the above-mentioned real rainfall. The land use changes of the catchment area of the reservoir Hubenov were assessed also with respect to the concentration of substances in the profiles studied.

Paysages emblématiques des campagnes de l’Ouest, les bocages ont connu une série de transformations rapides et importantes ces quarante dernières années : érosion du linéaire de haies, changements des usages du sol, rationalisation et agrandissement du parcellaire, banalisation et massification des bâtiments agricoles, enfrichement des secteurs les plus difficiles à exploiter. L’ampleur des ajustements observés souligne le décalage entre ces formes paysagères héritées d’une longue histoire agraire, et l’évolution des systèmes agricoles qui contribuent à les produire.Si la transformation des paysages de bocage est généralement attribuée au tournant « productiviste » du modèle agricole français, les processus socio-techniques à l’origine de ces évolutions sont plus rarement explicités. L’objet de ce travail est d’évaluer plus spécifiquement la contribution de l’agrandissement des exploitations agricoles à la dynamique d’évolution des paysages bocagers de l’Ouest de la France.Ce travail de géographie s’appuie dans un premier temps sur une analyse statistique à l’échelle du grand Ouest de la France, visant à étudier l’effet des transformations foncières sur les structures spatiales agricoles (assolements, parcellaire, linéaires boisés…). Dans un second temps, les dynamiques paysagères et foncières de quatre espaces d’étude (Bessin, Bocage Virois, Sud Manche, Pays d’Auge), situés en domaine laitier et bocager mais présentant des configurations agricoles variées, ont été étudiées entre 2003 et 2016. Ce travail s’appuie notamment sur un dispositif méthodologique original, articulant au sein d’un système d’information géographique à échelle parcellaire (1) la construction d’un suivi à échelle spatio-temporelle fine des dynamiques paysagères (évolution du maillage bocager, de la trame parcellaire et de l’occupation du sol) et (2) la reconstitution de l’évolution de la mosaïque des parcellaires d’exploitations par appariement de plusieurs millésimes du registre parcellaire graphique. L’exploitation de cette base de données spatio-temporelle a permis de mieux comprendre le rôle de la transformation foncière des exploitations agricoles dans la dynamique des paysages bocagers. Enfin, une enquête de terrain a été réalisée auprès de 150 agriculteurs équitablement répartis dans les quatre espaces d’étude, afin d’appréhender les conséquences sociales, techniques et productives de l’agrandissement à l’échelle des exploitations agricoles, qui diffèrent singulièrement selon le type de trajectoire foncière suivie. / Symbolic landscapes of the countryside of the West of France, the bocage landscapes have undergone a series of transformations these last forty years : decrease in hedgerow density, land uses changes, plots extension, normalization and enlargement of farm buildings, spatial extension of wilderness… The intensity of landscape transformations highlights the contradiction between these landscape forms produced by a long agrarian history and the contemporary evolutions of farming systems. The transformation of hedgerow landscapes is generally attributed to the "productivist" turn of the French agricultural model. However, the socio-technical processes behind these changes are more rarely explained.The first purpose of this geography work is to study the effects of changing agricultural systems on agricultural spatial structures, based on a statistical analysis at the scale of the West of France. In a second step, the landscape and land dynamics of four study areas (Bessin, Bocage Virois, Sud Manche, Pays d'Auge), located in the dairy and bocage domain, have been studied between 2003 and 2016. This work is based on an original methodological device, set up in a geographical information system. This structuration of geographic information makes possible to (1) monitor the landscape dynamics (evolution of the hedgerow density, land cover and plot morphology changes) at a fine spatial and temporal scale and (2) to reconstruct the evolution of the mosaic of farm plots, by matching land-parcell identification systems across the time (2007, 2011, 2013). From this spatio-temporal database, we characterized the coevolution of landscape structures and farm territories across the time, in order to better understand the landscape consequences of farm enlargment.Finally, a field survey was carried out among 150 farmers equitably distributed in the four study areas, in order to apprehend the social, technical and productive consequences of the farms enlargment, which differ singularly according to the type of land trajectory followed.

Orientador: Cenira Maria Lupinacci / Resumo: A taxa de crescimento urbano no mundo vem aumentando, conforme estudos das Nações Unidas (2015). No Brasil, este fato também se intensificou a partir da década de 1970, com o desenvolvimento das cidades médias. Dessa forma, o objetivo desta pesquisa foi identificar e analisar os níveis de restrição do relevo ao uso urbano, no setor sul da cidade de Araras-SP. Para que o objetivo proposto fosse alcançado, foi necessária a elaboração de alguns produtos cartográficos. A cartografia-geomorfológica-histórico-evolutiva, bem como as cartas de uso da terra dos anos de 1962, 1978, 1988, 1997, 2010 e 2016 permitiram visualizar as mudanças imprimidas pela ação antrópica e avaliar os estágios de evolução no meio urbano, conforme Nir (1983). A carta de fragilidade física foi construída a partir das cartas de declividade e de materiais inconsolidados, fazendo o uso das feições erosivas. Os dados obtidos por meio dos mapeamentos foram analisados sob a perspectiva da Teoria Geral dos Sistemas (TGS), entendendo a área de estudo como um sistema controlado já que apresenta interferência antrópica. Assim, constatou-se que o processo de urbanização, no período de 54 anos, acarretou feições antropogênicas, tais como aterros, cortes, ruptura topográfica antrópica, canal fluvial retificado, canal fluvial canalizado, canal artificial para o escoamento de águas pluviais, saída de drenagem, vertente côncava e convexa antrópica, terraço agrícola, bacia de contenção e limite do reservatório de contenção.... (Resumo completo, clicar acesso eletrônico abaixo) / Abstract: According to reports from United Nations (2015), the rate of urban growth has been increasing around the world. In Brazil, the same fact is verified as of 1970’s with the medium cities development. Thereby, the aim of this research was to identify and analyze the relief restriction levels to urban use in Araras (SP) city, in the South area. It was necessary the preparation of some cartographic mapping to achieve the proposed. Both the evolutive historic geomorphological cartography and land cover map in 1962, 1978, 1988, 1997, 2010 and 2016 allowed to view imposed changes by anthropic action and assess the evolution stages in the urban area, according to Nir (1983). The environment fragility map was built from slope and unconsolidated materials maps, using of erosion features. The obtained data through the mapping were analyzed from Systems General Theory (SGT), analyzing the area of study as controlled system due to anthropic interference. Thus, in 54 years the urbanization process caused anthropogenic features such as embankment, cutting, anthropic topographic breaks, rectified canal, canalization canal, artificial canal to flow rainwater, drainage exit, anthropic concave and convex slope, agricultural terrace, contention basin and contention reservoir. The data of environment fragility and land cover use subsidized the relief restriction levels to urban use. The sectors which have restriction to urban use very high, high and averagely high are to close headwater, concave s... (Complete abstract click electronic access below) / Mestre

L’Amazonie est soumise depuis plusieurs décennies à un changement rapide d’occupation du sol du fait de la déforestation, l’installation de systèmes de production agricole, notamment l’élevage bovin et plus récemment le soja. L’un des défis majeurs est de mieux comprendre la dynamique spatiale de ces processus et ses déterminants. Avec la réduction de la déforestation et l’évolution agraire sur les fronts pionniers, les ressources et contraintes naturelles semblent gagner en importance dans les choix opérés par les agriculteurs. L'objectif de la présente recherche est d'évaluer le rôle des facteurs biophysiques dans la dynamique de l’occupation du sol depuis 2000 et d’anticiper sur des futurs possibles dans un territoire amazonien d’ancien front pionnier, aujourd’hui consolidé, la municipalité de Paragominas. Nous avons mis en œuvre un modèle spatialement explicite, afin d’identifier la distribution spatiale des processus de changement en relation avec différents facteurs. Des entretiens réalisés avec des producteurs explicitent les logiques sous-jacentes. Les résultats montrent qu'il y a différentes logiques d'usage des ressources biophysiques, qui varient selon les types de production, la taille des exploitations, la distance aux routes et villages, et la distribution spatiale des ressources biophysiques dans l'exploitation. Elles évoluent au fil du temps, en fonction des productions et des avancées technologiques, et sont organisées dans l'espace. La mise en évidence de ces relations spatiales constitue une avancée significative pour représenter l'évolution de l’ usage des sols et constituer un appui dans la définition de politiques de développement territorial. / The Amazon has been subject to a rapid change in land use due to deforestation for several decades and more recently to the expansion of annual crops like soybeans. One of the major challenges is to understand better the spatial dynamics of these processes and its determinants. With the reduction of deforestation and the consolidation of pioneer fronts, natural resources and constraints seem to be gaining in importance in farmers' choices. The objective of this research was to assess the role of biophysical factors in land use dynamics since 2000 and to anticipate possible futures in a consolidated Amazonian pioneer frontier, the municipality of Paragominas. We implemented a spatially explicit model to identify the spatial distribution of change processes in relation to different factors. Interviews with farmers explain the underlying strategy. The results show different strategies for the use of biophysical resources according to the types of production, the size of the farms, the distance to roads and villages and the spatial distribution of biophysical resources in the farm. The strategies evolve over time, in relation to production and technological advances, and are organized in space. A better understanding of the importance of biophysical resources on the evolution of pioneer fronts through this type of method could provide support for land-use policies.

L’armature verte urbaine rassemble tous les éléments de végétation contribuant à répondre aux défis majeurs associés à l’Anthropocène, comme l’adaptation au changement climatique, la préservation de la biodiversité, l’infiltration des eaux pluviales ou l’amélioration de la santé des populations. La cartographie précise des espaces végétalisés urbains fait aujourd’hui défaut bien que les données spatiales issues de capteurs aéroportés soient disponibles depuis de nombreuses années. De ce fait, il est aujourd’hui difficile d’évaluer la fonctionnalité des armatures vertes. Pour répondre à ce besoin d’évaluation, il s’est agi, dans le cadre d’étude de la Métropole de Lyon, de cartographier le territoire à un mètre de résolution spatiale entre 1984 et 2015 en utilisant une procédure orientée objet, et de rendre ces cartographies disponibles sur une plateforme web dédiée. Il en ressort que les surfaces végétalisées de la métropole sont comparables à celles d’autres agglomérations de même rang, mais que l’accès de la population à cette végétation est très inégalement réparti. Par exemple, seuls 11 % des habitants disposent d’un espace vert de plus de 2ha à moins de 5 minutes de chez eux. Souvent sous-estimés dans les politiques urbaines, les jardins des particuliers représentent deux fois la surface des espaces verts publics, et devraient faire l’objet des mêmes questionnements, quant à leur valeur pour la mitigation climatique ou pour la biodiversité. L’évaluation de l’armature urbaine ne s’arrête pas à sa cartographie, mais doit conduire à l’exploration de sa perception à différentes échelles spatiales, pour différents acteurs (habitants, professionnels et autres organismes vivants) et selon plusieurs mesures de bien-être physique, mental et culturel. / The urban green infrastructure brings together all the elements of vegetation that contribute to meeting the major challenges associated with the Anthropocene, such as adapting to climate change, preserving biodiversity, infiltrating rainwater or improving the health of populations. The precise mapping of urban green spaces is today lacking although spatial data from airborne sensors have been available for many years. As a result, it is now difficult to assess the functionality of greeninfrastructures. To meet this need for evaluation, the territory of the urban area of Lyon was mapped at one meter resolution between 1984 and 2015 using an object-oriented procedure. All maps generated were made available on a dedicated web platform. The results show that the green areas of the urban area of Lyon are comparable to those of other agglomerations of the same rank, but that the population’s access to this vegetation is very unevenly distributed. For example, only 11% of the inhabitants can find a green space of more than 2ha closer than a 5 minutes’ walk from home. Often underestimated in urban policies, private gardens make up twice the surface of public green spaces, and should be the subject of the same questions about their value for climate mitigation or the conservation of biodiversity. The evaluation of urban green infrastructures only starts with theirmapping, and should lead to the exploration of its perception at different spatial scales, for different actors (inhabitants, professionals and other living organisms) and according to several measures of physical, mental and cultural well-being.

Summary Fresh water availability and distribution have been declining over time due to population increase, climate change and variability, emerging new demands due to economic growth, and changing consumption patterns. Spatial and temporal changes in environmental changes, such as climate and land use/cover (LULC) dynamics have an enormous impact on water availability. Food and energy security, urbanization and industrial growth, as well as climate change (CC) will pose critical challenges on water resources. Climate variability and change may affect both the supply and demand sides of the balance, and thus add to the challenges. Land-cover changes are vastly prominent in the developing countries that are characterized by agriculture-based economies and rapidly increasing human population. The consequent changes in water availability and increase in per capita water demand will adversely affect the food, water and energy security of those countries. Therefore, evaluating the response of the catchment to environmental changes is crucial in the critical part of the basin for sustainable water resource management and development. In particular, assessing the contribution of individual LULC classes to changes in water balance components is vital for effective water and land resource management, and for mitigation of climate change impacts. The dynamic water balance of a catchment is analyzed by hydrological models that consider spatio-temporal catchment characteristics. As a result, hydrological models have become indispensable tools for the study of hydrological processes and the impacts of environmental stressors on the hydrologic system. Physically-based distributed hydrological models are able to explicitly account for the spatial variability of hydrological process, catchment characteristics such as climatic parameters, and land use/cover changes. For improved illustration of physical processes in space and time, the distributed hydrological models need serially complete and homogenized rainfall and temperature data. However, observed rainfall and temperature data are neither serially complete nor homogeneous, particularly in developing countries. Using inhomogeneous climatological data inputs to hydrological models affects the output magnitude of climate and land use/cover change impacts and, hence, climate change adaptation. The Nile River Basin, one of the transboundary river flows through 11 riparian states, serves the livelihoods of millions of people in the basin (nearly 20 per cent of the African population) and covers one-tenth of the land cover of Africa. The basin is characterized by high population growth and high temporal variability in the river flow and rainfall patterns. The Blue Nile river basin, which contributes 62% of the annual main Nile flow, has faced serious land degradation. This has led to increased soil erosion and loss of soil fertility. The most overwhelming challenge that the basin faces is food insecurity caused by subsistence farming and rain-fed agriculture (over 70% of the basin’s population), together with high rainfall variability. Drought and floods are also critical issues in the Blue Nile basin, with the potential for exacerbation by environmental changes. Understanding how LULC and climate changes influence basin hydrology will therefore enable decision makers to introduce policies aimed at reducing the detrimental effects of future environmental changes on water resources. Understanding types and impacts of major environmental stressors in representative and critical regions of the basin is crucial for developing of effective response strategies for sustainable land- and water-resource management in the Eastern Nile Basin in general, and at the Tana and Beles watersheds in particular. In this study, serially completed and homogenized rainfall and temperature dataset are maintained from 1980 to 2013 to fill-in the gap which characterized previous studies on trend analyses. The new hydroclimatic data revealed that the climate the study region has become wetter and warmer. The proportional contribution of main rainy season rainfall to annual total rainfall has increased. This might result in high runoff and ultimately flooding as well as erosion and sedimentation in the source region of the Blue Nile, and siltation in the downstream reservoirs unless soil and water conservation measures are taking place. In the Tana sub-basin, it is found that expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub are the major contributors to the rise in surface run-off and to the decline in the groundwater component from 1986 to 2010. Similarly, decline of woodland and expansion of cultivation land are found to be the major contributors to the increase in surface run-off and water yield. They also contributed to the decrease in groundwater and actual evapotranspiration components in the Beles watershed. Increased run-off and reduced baseflow and actual evapotranspiration would have negative impacts on water resources, especially in relation to erosion and sedimentation in the upper Blue Nile River Basin. As a result, expansion of cultivation land and decline in woody shrub/woodland appear to be major environmental stressors affecting local water resources. GCMs simulated near-future annual total rainfall and average temperature were used to investigate the sensitivity of the catchment to near-future CC. The results showed an increase in streamflow in the annual and the main rainy season, but decrease in the dry period when compared to the baseline period. Catchment response for future LULC scenario showed opposite effect to that of near-future CC. The combined effects of climate change and LULC dynamics can be quite different from the effects resulting from LULC or CC alone. At the outlet of the Tana watershed, streamflow response is amplified under concurrent land cover and climate change scenarios compared to the baseline scenario; but the streamflow has an augmenting response at the outlet of the Beles watershed under future climate change and land use scenarios compared to that of current period. The important inference from these findings is that it could be possible to alleviate intense floods or droughts due to future climate change by planning LULC to achieve particular hydrological effects of land cover in the basin. Continuing expansion of cultivation land and decrease in natural vegetation, coupled with increased rainfall due to climate change, would result in high surface runoff in the main rainy season, which would subsequently increase flooding, erosion and sedimentation in already degraded lands. Sound mitigation measures should therefore be applied to reduce these adverse environmental consequences. On the other hand, the simulated climate and land-use change impacts on the Tana watershed hydrological regime might increase the availability of streamflow to be harnessed by water-storage structures. In conclusion, the present study has developed an innovative approach to identify the major environmental stressors of critical source region of the Blue Nile River in order to effectively managing the water resources and climate risk. Understanding the catchment responses to environmental changes improves sustainability of the water resources management particularly given that the hydropower and the irrigation schemes are recently established for energy and food security.:TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF TABLES 1. General Introduction 2. The study area 3. Gap Filling and Homogenization of Climatological Datasets in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia Abstract 3.1. Introduction 3.1.1. Data 3.2. Methodology 3.2.1. Quality control and gap filling 3.2.2. Homogenization 3.3. Results and Discussion 3.3.1. Gap filling 3.3.2. Homogeneity 3.3.3. Verification of the homogenization 3.3.4. Impact of homogenization on the rainfall and temperature series 3.4. Conclusions Acknowledgements 4. Revisiting trend analysis of hydroclimatic data in the Upper Blue Nile basin based on homogenized data Abstract 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Data and Methodology 4. 2.1 Data 4. 2.2 Linear trend 4. 2.3 Trend magnitude 4.3 Results and Discussions 4.3.1. Linear mean climate trends 4.3.1.1. Rainfall 4.3.1.2. Maximum Temperature (Tmax) 4.3.1.3. Minimum Temperature (Tmin) 4.3.1.4. Mean temperature (Tmean) 4.3.1.5. Diurnal temperature range (DTR) 4.3.1.6. Streamflow 4.3.2. Effect of homogenization on Tmax, Tmin, Tmean and DTR linear trends 4.3.3. Linear extreme climate trends 4.3.1. Temperature 4.3.2. Precipitation 4.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 5. Recent Changes in Land Use/Cover in the Headwater Region of the Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia 85 Abstract 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Materials and Methods 5.2.1 Data used and image pre-processing 5.2.2 Classification accuracy assessment 5.2.3 Extent and rate of change 5.2.4 Detecting the most systematic transitions (dominant signals of change) 5.4 Results and Discussion 5.4.1 Accuracy assessment 5.4.2 Extent and rate of LULC changes 5.4.3 Rate of land use and land cover change 5.4.4 Detection of most systematic transitions 5.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 6. Hydrological Responses to Land use/cover Changes in the Tana and Beles Watersheds, the Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Method 6.2.1 Hydrological modeling 6.2.2 Partial least squares regression 6.3 Results and Discussion 6.3.1 Calibration and validation of SWAT 6.3.2 Impacts of LULC changes on hydrology at the basin scale 6.3.3 Contribution of changes in individual LULCs to hydrological components 6.4 Conclusions Acknowledgements 7. Combined Impact of Climate and Land Use Changes on Hydrology in the Tana and Beles Sub-Basins, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia Abstract 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Methodology 7.2.1 Simulation 7.2.2 Climate change scenarios 7.2.3 LULC change scenarios 7.3 Results and Discussion 7.3.1 Future versus current LULC impact on the basin hydrology 7.3.2 Future versus baseline climate 7.3.3 Impact of combined future climate and LULC changes on hydrology 7.4 Uncertainties and Limitations 7.5 Conclusions Acknowledgements 8. Overall Conclusions, Recommendations and Future Research Directions 8.1. Overall Conclusions 8.2 Recommendations and Directions for further research References