The irrigated agriculture in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) of Pakistan is characterized by huge water utilization both from surface and groundwater resources. Need of utilization of water from five rivers in Punjab province along with accelerated population growth has forced the construction of world’s largest irrigation network. Nevertheless, huge irrigation infrastructure, together with inappropriate drainage infrastructure, led to a build-up of shal-low groundwater levels, followed by waterlogging and secondary salinization in the soil profile. Following this era, decreased efficiency of irrigation supply system along with higher food demands had increased burdens on groundwater use, which led to a drop in groundwater levels in major parts of LCC. Previous studies in the study region revealed lacking management and maintenance of irrigation system, inflexible irrigation strategies, poor linkages between field level water supply and demands. No future strategy is present or under consideration to deal with this long time emerged groundwater situation particularly under unchanged irrigation water supply and climate change. Therefore, there is an utmost importance to assess the current profile of water use in the irrigation scheme and to device some workable strategies under future situations of land use and climate change. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal status of water utilization and performance of irrigation system using remote sensing data and techniques (SEBAL) in combination with other point data. Different irrigation performance indicators including equity, adequacy and reliability using evaporation fraction as main input parameter are utilized. Current profiles of land use/land cover (LULC) areas are assessed and their change detections are worked out to establish realistic future scenarios. Spatially distributed seasonal net recharge, a very important input parameter for groundwater modeling, is estimated by employing water balance approaches using spatial data from remote sensing and local norms. Such recharge results are also compared with a water table fluctuation approach. Following recharge estimation, a regional 3-D groundwater flow model using FEFLOW was set up. This model was calibrated by different approaches ranging from manual to automated pilot point (PP) approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to see the model response against different model input parameters and to identify model regions which demand further improvements. Future climate parameters were downscaled to establish scenarios by using statistical downscaling under IPCC future emission scenarios. Modified recharge raster maps were prepared under both LULC and climate change scenarios and were fed to the groundwater model to investigate groundwater dynamics. Seasonal consumptive water use analysis revealed almost double use for kharif as compared to rabi cropping seasons with decrease from upper LCC to lower regions. Intra irrigation subdivision analysis of equity, an important irrigation performance indicator, shows less differences in water consumption in LCC. However, the other indicators (adequacy and reliability) indicate that the irrigation system is neither adequate nor reliable. Adequacy is found more pronounced during kharif as compared to rabi seasons with aver-age evaporation fraction of 0.60 and 0.67, respectively. Similarly, reliability is relatively higher in upper LCC regions as compared to lower regions. LULC classification shows that wheat and rice are major crops with least volatility in cultivation from season to season. The results of change detection show that cotton exhibited maximum positive change while kharif fodder showed maximum negative change during 2005-2012. Transformation of cotton area to rice cultivation is less conspicuous. The water consumption in upper LCC regions with similar crops is relatively higher as compared to lower regions. Groundwater recharge results revealed that, during the kharif cropping seasons, rainfall is the main source of recharge followed by field percolation losses, while for rabi cropping seasons, canal seepage remains the major source. Seasonal net groundwater recharge is mainly positive during all kharif seasons with a gradual increase in groundwater level in major parts of LCC. Model optimization indicates that PP is more flexible and robust as compared to manual and zone based approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration and validation as values of Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency are 0.976 and 0.969, % BIAS are 0.026 and -0.205 and root mean square errors are 1.23 m and 1.31 m, respectively. Results of model output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter in the study area than drain/fillable porosity. Model simulation results under different scenarios show that rice cultivation has the highest impact on groundwater levels in upper LCC regions whereas major negative changes are observed for lower parts under decreased kharif fodder area in place of rice, cotton and sugarcane. Fluctuations in groundwater level among different proposed LULC scenarios are within ±1 m, thus showing a limited potential for groundwater management. For future climate scenarios, a rise in groundwater level is observed for 2011 to 2025 under H3A2 emission regime. Nevertheless, a drop in groundwater level is expected due to increased crop consumptive water use and decreased precipitations under H3A2 scenario for the periods 2026-2035 and 2036-2045. Although no imminent threat of groundwater shortage is anticipated, there is an opportunity for developing groundwater resources in the lower model regions through water re-allocation that would be helpful in dealing water shortages. The groundwater situation under H3B2 emission regime is relatively complex due to very low expectation of rise in groundwater level through precipitation during 2011-2025. Any positive change in groundwater under such scenarios is mainly associated with changes in crop consumptive water uses. Consequently, water management under such situation requires revisiting of current cropping patterns as well as augmenting water supply through additional surface water resources.:ABSTRACT VIII ZUSAMMENFASSUNG X ACRONYMS 1 Chapter 1 3 GENERAL INTRODUCTION 3 1 Groundwater for irrigated agriculture 3 2 Groundwater development in Pakistan 4 3 Study area 6 4 History of groundwater use in the study area 7 5 Research agenda 8 5.1 Problem statement 8 5.2 Objectives and scope of the study 9 Chapter 2 12 OVERVIEW OF PUBLICATIONS 12 Chapter 3 16 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS 16 REFERENCES 20 ANNEXES 23 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 123

Ziel der Arbeit war die Beurteilung der räumlichen Verteilung und Struktur von Feldhecken hinsichtlich ihrer Wirkung für Hochwasser- und Naturschutz, sowie die Analyse von agrarökonomischen Faktoren, welche die Anlage von Hecken fördern beziehungsweise behindern. Folgende Fragen standen bei den Untersuchungen im Mittelpunkt: Wie muss eine Hecke sowohl aus naturschutzfachlicher als auch hydrologischer Sicht aufgebaut sein, um eine optimale Wirkung zu erzielen, und wie müssen die Rahmenbedingungen für Landwirte aussehen, damit Heckenstrukturen nicht nur erhalten, sondern auch neu angelegt werden können? Um diese komplexen Fragen zu beantworten, wurden verschiedene methodische Ansätze zur Analyse ökologischer, hydrologischer und entscheidungsbildender Prozesse gewählt. Um die Ergebnisse der verschiedenen Skalenarten (ordinal / kardinal) zu vergleichen und dabei aus verschiedenen Optionen eine für alle Ziele optimale Vorzugsvariante zu ermitteln, wurde am Ende eine Nutzwertanalyse durchgeführt. / There were two main purposes of the study; the evaluation of the spatial distribution and structural patterns of hedgerows in regard to their impact on flood prevention and nature conservation, and the investigation of factors facilitating or constraining the establishment of hedgerows. On the basis of this assessment, knowledge based recommendations were developed for the facilitation of hedgerows in agricultural landscapes in mountainous areas such as the Erzgebirge. The following questions were the main focus of the investigation: how should a hedgerow be composed to obtain the optimal effect from the nature conservation as well as the flood prevention point of view, and how should the general requirements for farmers be constructed so that hedgerows are not only maintained but also newly established. To answer these complex questions different methodologies were applied for analysing ecological, hydrological and decision-forming processes. In order to compare the results and hedgerow alternatives to determine the optimal choice, a value-benefit analysis was performed.

Despite the negative effects of fossil fuels on the environment, these remain as the primary contributors to the energy sector. In order to mitigate global warming risks, many countries aim at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Bioenergy crops are being used as a substitute for fossil fuels and short rotation forestry is a prime example. In order to examine the sustainability of energy crops for fuel, typical European short rotation forestry (SRF) biomass, willow (Salix spp.) and poplar (Populus spp.) are examined and compared to rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) in respect to various aspects of soil respiration and combustion heat obtained from the extracted products per hectare. Various approaches are used to look at an As-contaminated site not only in the field but also in a soil-column experiment that examines the fate of trace elements in SRF soils, and in an analysis using MICMAC to describe the driving factors for SRF crop production. Based on the cause-effect chain, the impacts of land-use change and occupation on ecosystem quality are assessed when land-use is changed from degraded land (grassland) to willow and poplar SRF. A manual opaque dynamic closed chamber system (SEMACH-FG) was utilized to measure CO2 emissions at a willow/poplar short rotation forest in Krummenhennersdorf, Germany during the years 2013 and 2014, and at a rapeseed site in 2014. Short rotation forest soils showed higher CO2 emission rates during the growing season than the dormant season – with a CO2 release of 5.62±1.81 m-2 s-1 for willows and 5.08±1.37 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 for poplars in the growing season. However, during the dormant season the soil sites with willow emitted 2.54±0.81 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1 and with poplar 2.07±0.56 µmol CO2 m-2 s-1. The highest emission rates for the studied plantations were observed in July for both years 2013 and 2014, during which the highest air and soil temperatures were recorded. Correlations between soil emission of CO2 and some meteorological parameters and leaf characteristics were investigated for the years 2013 and 2014. For example, for the willow clone (Jorr) and poplar clone (Max 3), high correlations were found for each between their soil emission of CO2 and both soil temperature and moisture content. Fitted models can explain about 77 and 75% of the results for Jorr and Max 3 clones, respectively. Moreover, a model of leaf area (LA) can explain about 68.6% of soil CO2 emission for H275. Estimated models can be used as a gap-filling method, when field data is not available. The ratio between soil respiration and the combustion heat calculated from the extracted products per hectare was evaluated and compared for the study’s willow, poplar and rapeseed crops. The results show that poplar and willow SRF has a very low ratio of 183 kg CO2 GJ 1 compared to rapeseed, 738 kg CO2 GJ 1. The soil-column experiment showed that by continuing the SRF plantation at the As-contaminated site, remediation would need only about 3% of the time needed if the site was left as a fallow field. In order to understand the complex willow and poplar short rotation forestry production system, 50 key variables were identified and prioritized to describe the system as a step to enhance the success of such potentially sustainable projects. The MICMAC approach was used in order to find the direct and the indirect relationships between those parameters and to classify them into different clusters depending on their driving force and interdependency. From this, it can be summarized that in order to enhance the success of a SRF system, decision makers should be focussing on: ensuring a developed wood-fuel market, increasing farmers’ experience/training, improving subsidy regulations and recommending a proper harvesting year cycle. Finally, the impacts of land-use change and occupation on the ecosystem quality were assessed. Results show that establishing SRF plantations on degraded lands improved the ecosystem structural quality (ESQ) by about 43% and ecosystem functional quality (EFQ) by about 12%. Based on overall results, poplar and willow SRF biomass can be recommended as renewable and sustainable sources for bioenergy.:Table of Contents Acknowledgements VI Abstract VII List of Figures IX List of Tables XI List of Appendix Tables XII List of Abbreviations XIII List of Abbreviations ...continued XIV 1. Background 1 1.1. General introduction 1 1.2. Soil organic carbon (SOC) 2 1.3. Soil respiration 4 1.4. Energy and bioenergy crops 5 1.5. Willow and poplar short rotation forestry 8 1.6. Degraded lands 10 1.8. Challenges 17 1.9. Objectives of this study 18 2. Methodology 19 2.1. Site Description 19 2.2. Environmental variables 22 2.3. Measuring CO2 emissions 23 2.3.1. Soil emission of CO2 23 2.3.2. Sensitivity of soil respiration to temperature (Q10) 25 2.4. Willow and poplar leaf traits 26 2.4.1. Measuring leaf area 26 2.4.2. Leaf Area Index (LAI) 27 2.4.3. Leaf sensitivity to high and low temperatures 28 2.5. Soil characteristics 30 2.5.1. Soil sampling 30 2.5.2. Soil Moisture Content % (SMC) by gravimetric method 31 2.5.3. Soil pH 31 2.5.4. Soil Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC) 31 2.5.5. Soil content of C, N, S, heavy metals and trace elements 31 2.5.6. Soil porosity 31 2.5.7. Soil pore water 32 2.5.8. Soil hydraulic conductivity (Kf) 32 2.6. Soil-column experiment 34 2.6.1. Experiment set-up 35 2.6.2. Distribution coefficients (Kd) 35 2.7. MICMAC approach 36 2.7.1. Selection of variables 36 2.7.2. Description of direct relationships 36 2.7.3. Classification of variables 37 2.8. Impacts of land-use change on the ecosystem quality 38 2.9. Computer software 40 3. Results and Discussion 41 3.1. Environmental conditions 41 3.1.1. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) 41 3.1.2. Soil temperature 42 3.1.3. Soil moisture content 43 3.2. Soil emission of CO2 46 3.2.1. CO2 emission from soil at the short rotation forestry site 46 3.2.2. Soil emission of CO2 during the day and the night 48 3.2.3. Cumulative emission of CO2 49 3.2.4. Comparison with other bioenergy crops 50 3.3. Q10 52 3.4. Willow and poplar Leaf Characteristics 54 3.4.1. Leaf Area Index (LAI) 54 3.4.2. Specific leaf area (SLA) 56 3.4.3. Leaf sensitivity to temperature 57 3.5. Correlations of soil CO2 emission with soil temperature and moisture content 59 3.6. Correlations of soil CO2 emission with plant parameters 65 3.7. Insights into soil respiration and combustion heat per area 67 3.7.1. Cumulative seasonal CO2 emission (CE) 68 3.7.2. Output energy 69 3.7.3. CO2(soil respiration) / Energy ratio 70 3.7.4. Global-warming potential (GWP) 72 3.8. Trace elements in soil 73 3.8.1. Solid-liquid partition coefficients (Kd) 74 3.8.2. Estimating time of remediation 78 3.9. Identification and Prioritization of Key Parameters for Willow and Poplar Short Rotation Forestry (SRF) Production System 82 3.9.1. Based on direct influence/dependence map: 85 3.9.2. Based on indirect influence/dependence map: 87 3.10. Impacts of Land-use Change on the Ecosystem Quality 93 4. Conclusions and Recommendations 101 5. References 102 Appendix 118

This dissertation demonstrates the construction of the Panthera Population Persistence (PPP), an individual-based model for the Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae) which provides proper theoretical and application frameworks for the conservation of this tiger sub-species in central Sumatra. The PPP model was developed to gain insight into tiger-preyhabitat relationships as well as the effect of human impacts on the persistence of tiger populations. The model addresses three main problems for the survival of the Sumatran tiger: tiger poaching, prey depletion, and habitat loss. The description of the PPP model serves as an in-depth study of existing literature and covers the most important factors of existing models for tiger conservation. Existing modelling approaches have been improved by the inclusion of finer description of individual-level traits and behaviours in the PPP model. The modelling approach allows a direct inter-relationships between individuals and their environment. The relationship between individual behaviours, intrinsic states, and external factors are simulated spatially explicitly in a bottom-up approach where the emergence of the population dynamics of tiger and prey can be observed under different scenarios. The integration between the PPP model and geographical information system (GIS) has provided a much more meaningful spatial data by revealing the mechanism of the response of individuals to the present land-use types. The relative importance of the parameters within the PPP model was tested using two modes of sensitivity analysis: The Morris Method and the traditional One-factor-at-a-time method. The results provided guidance for the application of reasonable sensitivity analysis during the development of individual-based models. The Morris Method suggested that the overall output of the PPP model showed a high sensitivity on the change of time required by a tigress to take care of cubs. The analysis also revealed that the number of dispersers was sensitive toward perceptual distance of individuals to detect the presence of prey. Comparison with a similar predator-prey models provided insight into the predator-prey relationship. The comparison also suggested that perceptual distance of the individual is important for any spatially explicit individual-based model involving predator-prey relationships. The parameterization of the individual perceptual distance of tigers was tested by using existing literature on prey consumption by tigers as a benchmark. The simulation results were within the range of scientific acceptance for the number of prey killed by a tiger. Thus, further use of the set of parameters for a tiger’s perceptual distance is less uncertain for the output of the PPP model. The effect of habitat quality and landscape configuration on the mortality and migration of prey were evaluated through the use of virtual habitats and landscapes. The findings suggested that a good habitat quality enables prey survival, increases the population available for predation by tigers. When a low-quality habitat is combined with a high-quality habitat, the number of migrating prey was high, reducing resources for tigers. This suggested that landscape composition should be considered when predicting population persistence of the Sumatran tiger. Optimal movement of two different prey resulted in a high density of prey in high-quality habitat, providing a concentration of prey in a tiger’s habitat, but resulted in a lower tiger predation rate than random movement and species specific movement. The PPP model has been applied to evaluate the effect of poaching, prey depletion, and their combination for the probability of extinction of a tiger population. The results from the evaluation showed that prey depletion, tiger poaching, and a combination of both, created a 100% probability of extinction within 20 years if the density and frequency of those threats at high rates. However, the duration of those threats in the system caused a 100% probability of extinction from tiger poaching. The results are able to contribute to optimize anti-poaching programs in future, to reduce significantly the probability of total extinction of Sumatran tiger. Furthermore, various landscape configurations have been tested against the probability and time of extinction for the Sumatran tiger population. The integration of spatial GIS-data in the model provides an insight into the relationship between tiger-prey-habitat. The results suggested that habitat quality surrounding a protected area plays an important role for the persistence of the Sumatran tiger population. This study also recommends agroforestry systems as reasonable land-use type in the vicinity of protected areas. They provide not only positive effects for tiger conservation purpose but they also appear as adaptable to the current land-use situation in Sumatra island.:Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Zusammenfassung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Acknowledgement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Contents 12 1 Introduction 15 1.1 Cornerstones of Sumatran Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . . 16 1.2 Scientific Challenges to Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . . . 22 1.3 Roles of Modelling in Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . . . . 26 1.4 Individual-Based Models for Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . 30 1.5 Research Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.6 Thesis Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2 Literature Review 34 2.1 Fragmentation and Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.2 Population Extinction and its measures . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.3 Modelling the Effect of Fragmentation on Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.4 Individual-Based Modelling of Population Persistence . . . . 51 2.5 Sensitivity Analysis in Individual-based Model . . . . . . . . 53 3 Methods ..........................................................................55 3.1 Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.2 Model Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.3 Land-use Map Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.4 Model Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4 Results 73 4.1 Structure and Sensitivity Analysis of Individual-based Predator- Prey Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.2 Where to Go and How to Hide? Measuring the Relative Effect of Movement Decisions, Habitat Quality, and Landscape Configuration on theMortality andMigration of Tigers’ Prey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4.3 The Extinction Potential of a Sumatran Tiger Population after the Removal of Poaching . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 4.4 The Influence of Agroforest and Other Land-use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris suma- trae) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach . . 135 5 General Discussion 159 5.1 Main results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 5.2 Discussion of the results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 6 Conclusions and Perspectives 170 6.1 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 6.2 Perspectives for Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Bibliography 174 Appendices 191 / Die vorliegende Dissertation beschreibt die Entwicklung des Panthera Populations Persistence (PPP) Modells, eines individuenbasierten Simulationsmodells für den Sumatra-Tiger (Panthera tigris sumatrae). Dieses stellt einen geeigneten theoretischen und anwendungsbezogenen Rahmen für den Schutz dieser Tiger-Unterart in Zentralsumatra bereit. Das PPP-Modell wurde entwickelt, um Einblicke in die Tiger-Beute-Habitat-Beziehungen zu gewinnen, sowie um den Effekt anthropogener Einflüsse auf den Fortbestand von Tigerpopulationen abzuschätzen. Dabei werden die drei Hauptprobleme für das Überleben des Sumatra-Tigers analysiert: die Wilderei, der Rückgang von Beutetieren und der Verlust von geeigneten Habitaten. Die Beschreibung des PPP-Modells gibt zunächst einen umfassenden Überblick zum aktuellen Wissensstand auf dem Gebiet des Tigerschutzes und integriert die wichtigsten Faktoren bereits existierender Modellansätze. Diese konnten durch die Einbeziehung einer detaillierten Beschreibung von individuellen Merkmalen und Verhalten verbessert werden. Das PPPModell stellt somit das Individuum in einen direkten Zusammenhang mit dessen Umwelt. Die Beziehung zwischen individuellem Verhalten, intrinsischen Merkmalen und externen Faktoren werden räumlich-explizit in einem bottom-up Ansatz simuliert. Damit kann sowohl die Populationsdynamik des Tigers als auch die seiner Beutetiere unter verschiedenen Annahmen beobachtet werden. Die Verknüpfung des PPP-Modells mit Geographischen Informationssystemen (GIS) bietet die Möglichkeit, die Reaktionsmechanismen der Individuen basierend auf der gegenwärtigen Landnutzungssituation zu simulieren und somit realitätsnahe räumliche Daten zu generieren. Die relative Bedeutung der Modell-Parameter auf die Simulationsergebnisse kann durch Sensitivitätsanalysen ermittelt werden. Hier wurden zwei verschiedene Ansätze verwendet: die Morris-Methode und die herkömmliche One-factor-at-a-time Methode. Der Vergleich beider methodischen Ansätze zeigte somit beispielhaft die Eignung unterschiedlicher Sensitivitätsanalysen für individuenbasierte Modelle auf. Die Morris-Methode zeigte, dass das Gesamtergebnis des PPP-Modells eine hohe Sensitivität gegenüber der Veränderung der Zeit aufweist, die ein Tigerweibchen braucht, um ihre Jungen aufzuziehen. Die Analyse zeigt auch, dass die Anzahl an abwandernden Tigern sensitiv gegenüber der IndividuellenWahrnehmungsdistanz von Beute ist. Der Vergleich mit einem ähnlichen Räuber-Beute-Modell lässt vermuten, dass diese Wahrnehmungsdistanz eines Individuums generell als ein entscheidender Faktor für Räuber-Beute-Beziehungen in räumlich-expliziten Individuenmodellen an- gesehen werden kann. Die Parametrisierung der IndividuellenWahrnehmungsdistanz des Tigers wurde so gewahlt, dass die damit ermittelten Simulationsergebnisse den Beutekonsum des Tigers, wie in der Literatur beschrieben, weitgehen widerspiegeln. Sie ist somit für die weitere Anwendung im PPP-Modell ausreichend gut beschrieben. Simulationsszenarien, welche verschiedene Habitatqualitäten sowie Landnutzungsmuster berücksichtigen, zeigen auch deren Bedeutung für die Mortalität und Migration der Beutetiere. Eine gute Habitatqualität hat eine geringe Mortalität der Beutetiere zur Folge, welche dann wiederum für den Tiger in ausreichender Zahl zur Verfügung stehen. Treten geringe Habitatqualitäten angrenzend an ein Habitat mit hoher Qualität auf, führte dies zu einer hohen Anzahl an abwandernden Beutetieren, womit sich die Ressourcen für den Tiger verringern. Die Landschaftsmerkmale sollten also bei der Vorhersage des Populationsfortbestandes des Sumatra-Tigers berücksichtigt werden. Die optimale Bewegung von zwei verschiedenen Beutetieren ergab eine hohe Beutedichte in einem Habitat mit hoher Qualität und stellte konzentriert Beute in einem Tigerhabitat bereit. Allerdings resultierte dies auch in einer geringeren Prädationsrate des Tigers, verglichen mit zufälligen oder artenspezifischen Bewegungen. Das PPP-Modell wurde angewandt, um die Auswirkungen von Wilderei, Beutetierrückgang sowie die Kombination beider Faktoren auf die Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit einer Tigerpopulation zu bewerten. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die genannten Faktoren eine 100-prozentige Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit innerhalb von 20 Jahren zur Folge haben, wenn die Dichte und Häufigkeit dieser Bedrohungen hoch sind. Die Dauer dieser Bedrohungen im System verursachte allerdings eine 100-prozentige Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit nur für die Wilderei von Tigern. Betrachtet man unabhängig von Dichte und Häufigkeit einzig die Dauer der Bedrohung, führt lediglich die Wilderei zum 100%-igen Aussterben. Diese Ergebnisse können maßgeblich dazu beitragen, zukünftig Schutzprogramme gegen die Wilderei zu optimieren, um das Aussterben des Sumatra-Tigers zu verhindern. DesWeiteren wurde der Einfluss von unterschiedlichen Landnutzungsmustern auf die Aussterbewahrscheinlichkeit und -zeit einer Sumatra-Tigerpopulation aufgezeigt. Die Integration von räumlichen GIS-Daten in das Modell ermöglichte einen Einblick in die Beziehungen zwischen Tiger, Beutetieren und Habitat. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Habitatqualität um Schutzgebiete herum eine wichtige Rolle für den Fortbestand der Population spielt. Die vorliegende Arbeit empfiehlt Agroforstsysteme als eine geeignete Landnutzungsform in der Nähe von Schutzgebieten, welche sowohl positive Effekte für den Tigerschutz bietet als auch mit den gegenwärtigen Landnutzungsmustern in Sumatra vereinbar erscheint.:Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Zusammenfassung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Acknowledgement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Table of Contents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Contents 12 1 Introduction 15 1.1 Cornerstones of Sumatran Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . . 16 1.2 Scientific Challenges to Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . . . 22 1.3 Roles of Modelling in Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . . . . 26 1.4 Individual-Based Models for Tiger Conservation . . . . . . . 30 1.5 Research Questions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 1.6 Thesis Structures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 2 Literature Review 34 2.1 Fragmentation and Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . 35 2.2 Population Extinction and its measures . . . . . . . . . . . 37 2.3 Modelling the Effect of Fragmentation on Population Dynamics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 2.4 Individual-Based Modelling of Population Persistence . . . . 51 2.5 Sensitivity Analysis in Individual-based Model . . . . . . . . 53 3 Methods ..........................................................................55 3.1 Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.2 Model Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3.3 Land-use Map Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 3.4 Model Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4 Results 73 4.1 Structure and Sensitivity Analysis of Individual-based Predator- Prey Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 4.2 Where to Go and How to Hide? Measuring the Relative Effect of Movement Decisions, Habitat Quality, and Landscape Configuration on theMortality andMigration of Tigers’ Prey . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95 4.3 The Extinction Potential of a Sumatran Tiger Population after the Removal of Poaching . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 4.4 The Influence of Agroforest and Other Land-use Types on the Persistence of a Sumatran tiger (Panthera tigris suma- trae) Population: An Individual-Based Model Approach . . 135 5 General Discussion 159 5.1 Main results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 160 5.2 Discussion of the results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 161 6 Conclusions and Perspectives 170 6.1 Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170 6.2 Perspectives for Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171 Bibliography 174 Appendices 191

Sudan as a Sahelian country faced numerous drought periods resulting in famine and mass immigration. Spatial data on dynamics of land use and land cover is scarce and/or almost nonexistent. The study area in the North Kordofan State is located in the centre of Sudan and falls in the Sahelian eco-climatic zone. The region generally yields reasonable harvests of rainfed crops and the grasslands supports plenty of livestock. But any attempts to develop medium- to longterm strategies of sustainable land management have been hampered by the impacts of drought and desertification over a long period of time. This study aims to determine and analyse the dynamics of change of land use/land cover classes. The study attempts also to improve classification accuracy by using different data transformation methods like PCA, TCA and CA. In addition it tries to investigate the most reliable methods of pre-classification and/or post-classification change detection. The research also attempts to assess the desertification process using vegetation cover as an indicator. Preliminary mapping of major soil types is also an objective of this study. Landsat data of MSS 187/51 acquired on 01.01.1973 and ETM+ 174/51 acquired on 16.01.2001 were used. Visual interpretation in addition to digital image processing was applied to process the imagery for determining land use/land cover classes for the recent and reference image. Pre- and post-classification change detection methods were used to detect changes in land use/land cover classes in the study area. Pre-classification methods include image differencing, PC and Change Vector Analysis. Georeferenced soil samples were analysed to measure physical and chemical parameters. The measured values of these soil properties were integrated with the results of land use/ land cover classification. The major LULC classes present in the study area are forest, farm on sand, farm on clay, fallow on sand, fallow on clay, woodyland, mixed woodland, grassland, burnt/wetland and natural water bodies. Farming on sandy and clay soils constitute the major land use in the area, while mixed woodland constitutes the major land cover. Classification accuracy is improved by adopting data transformation by PCA, TCA and CA. Pre-classification change detection methods show indistinct and sketchy patterns of change but post-classification method shows obvious and detailed results. Vegetation cover changes were illustrated by use of NDVI. In addition preliminary soil mapping by using mineral indices was done based on ETM+ imagery. Distinct patterns of clay, gardud and sand areas could be classified. Remote sensing methods used in this study prove a high potential to classify land use/land cover as well as soil classes. Moreover the remote sensing methods used confirm efficiency for detecting changes in LULC classes and vegetation cover during the addressed period.

Die Arbeit liefert ein umfassendes Verständnis der (1) Auswirkungen auf Landnutzung und Treibhausgas (THG)-emissionen im Zusammenhang mit der deutschen Milchproduktion im Zeitraum von 2000 bis 2015 und bis 2030, (2) Unsicherheiten hinsichtlich der Bewertung der THG-emissionen der Milchproduktion und (3) Bewertung der Anwendbarkeit des zugrundeliegenden Modells für andere Länder als Deutschland. Landnutzung stellt die Anbaufläche von Futter für bestimmte Milchleistungen dar. Die Arbeit konzentrierte sich auf die Landnutzungsänderung zwischen Grün- und Ackerland durch Änderung der Milchkuhrationen. Ein Ökobilanz-Modell wurde entwickelt, um die Auswirkungen der Entwicklung der deutschen Milchproduktion und -leistung (typische Rationen unter deutschen Bedingungen) bis 2030 für drei Weidesysteme (ohne Weide, Halbtags- und Ganztagsweide) zu simulieren. THG-emissionen wurden für die gesamte Produktionskette berechnet, beginnend mit dem Pflanzenbau. Eingangsdaten für Ökobilanz-Studien von Lebensmitteln werden von Variabilität und Unsicherheiten beeinflusst. Ein systematischer Ansatz (Kombination aus lokaler und globaler Sensitivitätsanalyse) wurde verwendet, um wesentliche Eingangsparameter für die Bewertung der THG-emissionen der Milchproduktion zu identifizieren. Zu diesem Zweck wurden drei Rationen, welche die Weidesysteme im Jahr 2030 repräsentieren, ausgewählt. Die lokale Sensitivitätsanalyse diente der Identifikation der einflussreichsten Parameter, die globale der Identifikation der wichtigsten Parameter. Die USA dienen der Prüfung der Anwendbarkeit des Modells für andere Länder. Produktionssystem, verfügbare Daten und IPCC Tier-Methoden werden mit dem deutschen System und zugehörigen Daten verglichen. Diese Arbeit liefert wichtige Erkenntnisse zur künftigen Intensivierung der Milchproduktion sowie zu Klimaschutzpotenzialen in Abhängigkeit der Fütterungsstrategie. Darüber hinaus trägt sie zur Verringerung der Unsicherheiten künftiger Studien zur Milchproduktion bei. / This thesis provides an comprehensive understanding of: (1) impacts on land use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the German milk production in the period from 2000 to 2015 and further until 2030, (2) uncertainties with regard to the assessment of GHG emissions of milk production and (3) evaluation of applicability of the underlying life cycle assessment (LCA) model for countries other than Germany. Land use represents the acreage needed to provide sufficient feed for certain milk yields. This research focusses on land use change between grassland and cropland as an effect of changing dairy cow diets. A LCA model, which reflects typical dairy cow diets under German conditions, was developed to simulate the impact of the German development of milk production and yield until 2030 for three grazing systems (zero-, restricted and unrestricted grazing). GHG emissions have been calculated for the whole production chain, beginning with crops cultivation. Input parameter of LCA studies of food products are affected by variability and uncertainty. A systematic approach (combining local and global sensitivity analysis) was used to identify essential input parameters for the assessment of GHG emissions of milk production. Three diets representing the grazing systems in the year 2030 were selected for this purpose. Local sensitivity analysis was used to identify the most influential parameters, global sensitivity analysis was used to identify the parameters which are most important. The United States of America are taken as example to verify the applicability of the LCA model for other countries. Production system, available data, and IPCC tier methods were compared with the German system and data. This thesis provides important insights on future intensification of milk production along with climate change mitigation potentials depending on the feeding strategy. Moreover, it contributes to the reduction of uncertainties of future LCA studies of milk production.

Auf der Ostseeinsel Rügen wurde eine 3-jährige Untersuchung zur Siedlungsstruktur, Raum- und Habitatnutzung des Dachses (Meles meles L., 1758) unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Landschaftszerschneidung und des Landnutzungsmusters durchgeführt. Über 70 % der Inselfläche ist landwirtschaftlich, überwiegend ackerbaulich, genutzt und nur knapp ein Fünftel wird von Wald bedeckt. Während die Zersiedelung und Zerschneidung der Landschaft durch Siedlungs- und Verkehrsfläche im bundesdeutschen Vergleich als sehr gering einzustufen war, ist nach der ?Wende? eine stete Verdichtung des Straßennetzes zu beobachten, die von einem enormen Anstieg der Verkehrsdichte begleitet wird. Die Auswirkungen dieser Rahmenbedingungen wurden anhand von Nahrungsanalysen, eines inselweiten Baukatasters, Fang und Telemetrie einiger Dachse sowie einer Erfassung verkehrstoter Dachse untersucht. Die erfassten Totfunde dienten einer Abschätzung des Gefährdungspotentials unterschiedlicher Straßentypen (Bundesstraße, Landesstraße usw.). Zusätzlich wurde auf Grundlage des Baukatasters, des Totfundkatasters und von Verkehrszählungen der Zusammenhang zwischen Verkehrslast, Siedlungsdichte (des Dachses) und Verkehrsmortalität des Dachses mit Hilfe eines einfachen Modells ermittelt. / On the baltic island of Rügen investigations had been carried for 3 years with regard to distribution, space use and habitat utilization of the European badger (Meles meles L., 1758). Special attention was focused on landscape fragmentation and patterns of land use. More than 70 % of the island is agricultural, almost arable land and just under a fifth is woodland. Before 1990, fragmentation and dessection of the landscape due to housing and roads was low compared with the german average, but after the political "turn" the road system has increased constantly combined with an enormous increase in traffic density. The effect of these conditions on badgers was investigated studying diet composition, surveying and registrating badger setts all over the island, badger-watching and trapping, radio-tracking some badgers and collecting all reported badgers fallen victim to traffic accidents. Relating the road-killed badgers to the length and traffic density of the different road categories, potential danger to be killed by car was estimated. Relating the density of traffic, the density of the badger's local population and its road-mortality was done by simply using data of the sett survey, the road-killed badgers and traffic census.

Evapotranspiration ET is a dominant Earth System process that couples the water and energy cycles at the earth surface. The pressure of global environmental changes foster the broad scientific aim to understand impacts of climate and land-use on evapotranspiration under transient conditions. In this work, the spatial scale of river catchments is addressed through data analysis of hydrological and meteorological archives with ET classically derived through water balance closure. Through a synthesis of various catchments with different climatic forcings and hydrological conditions, the core objectives of this thesis are: - Did environmental changes in the past, such as climatic- or land-use and land cover (LULC) changes, result in detectable non-stationary changes in the hydro-climate time series? - How can the impacts of climatic- from LULC changes on the hydroclimatology of catchments be separated? - What are the factors that control the sensitivity of ET and streamflow to external changes? These research questions are addressed for the climatic scales of long-term annual averages and seasonal conditions which characterise the hydroclimatology of river catchments. Illustrated by a rich hydro-climatic archive condensed for 27 small to medium sized river catchments in Saxony, a method is proposed to analyse the seasonal features of river flow allowing to detect shifting seasons in snow affected river basins in the last 90 years. Observations of snow depth at these same times lead to the conclusion, that changes in the annual cycle of air temperature have a large influence on the timing of the freeze-thaw in late winter and early spring. This causes large changes in storage of water in the snow pack, which leads to profound changes of the river regime, particularly affecting the river flow in the following months. A model-based data analysis, based on the fundamental principles of water and energy conservation for long-term average conditions, is proposed for the prediction of ET and streamflow, as well as the separation of climate related impacts from impacts resulting from changes in basin conditions. The framework was tested on a large data set of river catchments in the continental US and is shown to be consistent with other methods proposed in the literature. The observed past changes highlight that (i) changes in climate, such as precipitation or evaporative demand, result in changes of the partitioning within the water and energy balance, (ii) the aridity of the climate and to a lesser degree basin conditions determine the sensitivity to external changes, (iii) these controlling factors influence the direction of LULC change impacts, which in some cases can be larger than climate impacts. This work provides evidence, that changes in climatic and land cover conditions can lead to transient hydrological behaviours and make stationary assumptions invalid. Hence, past changes present the opportunity for model testing and thereby deriving fundamental laws and concepts at the scale of interest, which are not affected by changes in the boundary conditions.:Kurzfassung Abstract List of Manuscripts Symbols and abbreviations List of Symbols List of abbreviations 1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation and relevance 1.1.1 Scientific importance of evapotranspiration 1.1.2 Pressure of human driven changes 1.1.3 Practical importance of evapotranspiration 1.2 Scope 1.2.1 Focus on the catchment scale 1.2.2 Changes in the hydroclimatology of river catchments 1.2.3 Hydro-climate data analysis 1.3 Objectives and research questions 1.3.1 Shifting seasons in hydrology 1.3.2 Long-term annual average changes of evapotranspiration and streamflow 1.3.3 Methodological requirements 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2 Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Motivation 2.1.2 Seasonal changes in hydrologic records 2.1.3 Regional climate in Saxony 2.1.4 Objective and structure 2.2 Methods 2.2.1 Annual periodic signal extraction 2.2.2 The runoff ratio and its annual phase 2.2.3 Descriptive circular statistics 2.2.4 Detection of nonstationarities, trends and change points 2.3 Data 2.4.1 Estimation and variability of the timing of the runoff ratio 2.4.2 Temporal variability of the timing 2.4.3 Does temperature explain trends in seasonality of runoff ratio? 2.4.4 Trend analysis in snow dominated basins 2.4.5 Uncertainty and significance of the results 2.5 Conclusions 2.A Preparation of basin input data 2.A.1 Precipitation 2.A.2 Temperature and snow depth data 3 Evaluation of water-energy balance frameworks 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Theory 3.2.1 Coupled water and energy balance 3.2.2 The ecohydrologic framework for change attribution 3.2.3 Applying the climate change hypothesis to predict changes in basin evapo transpiration and streamflow 3.2.4 Derivation of climatic sensitivity using the CCUW hypothesis 3.2.5 The Budyko hypothesis and derived sensitivities 3.3 Sensitivity analysis 3.3.1 Mapping of the Budyko functions into UW space 3.3.2 Mapping CCUW into Budyko space 3.3.3 Climatic sensitivity of basin evapotranspiration and streamflow 3.3.4 Climate-vegetation feedback effects 3.4 Application: three case studies 3.4.1 Mississippi River Basin (MRB) 3.4.2 Headwaters of the Yellow River Basin (HYRB) 3.4.3 Murray-Darling River Basin (MDB) 3.5 Conclusions 3.5.1 Potentials and limitations 3.5.2 Insights on the catchment parameter 3.5.3 Validation 3.5.4 Perspectives 3.A Derivation of the climate change direction 4 Climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States 4.1 Introduction 4.1.1 Motivation 4.1.2 Hydro-climate of the continental US 4.1.3 Aims and research questions 4.2 Methods 4.2.1 Ecohydrological concept to separate impacts of climate and basin changes 4.2.2 Streamflow change prediction based on a coupled water-energy balance framework 4.2.3 Streamflow change prediction based on the Budyko hypothesis 4.2.4 Statistical classification of potential climate and basin change impacts 4.3 Data 4.4 Results and discussion 4.4.1 Hydro-climate conditions in the US 4.4.2 Climate sensitivity of streamflow 4.4.3 Assessment of observed and predicted changes in streamflow 4.4.4 Uncertainty discussion 4.5 Conclusions 4.A Mathematical derivations for the Mezentsev function 5 Summary and conclusions 5.1 Shifting seasons in hydrology 5.1.1 Major findings 5.1.2 Socio-economic and political relevance 5.1.3 Limitations and possible directions for further research 5.2 Long-term annual changes in ET and streamflow 5.2.1 Major findings 5.2.2 Socio-economic and political relevance 5.2.3 Limitations and further research 5.3 General conclusions and outlook 5.3.1 Regional and temporal limits and validity 5.3.2 Hydrological records carry signals of climate and land use change 5.3.3 Statistical significance of past changes 5.3.4 Improvements in assessing ET 5.3.5 Remote sensing 5.3.6 Learning from the past to predict the future? Bibliography Danksagung Erklärung / Die Verdunstung ist ein maßgeblicher Prozess innerhalb des Klimasystems der Erde, welche den Wasserkreislauf mit dem Energiehaushalt der Erde verbindet. Eine zentrale wissenschaftliche Herausforderung ist, zu verstehen, wie die regionale Wasserverfügbarkeit durch Änderungen des Klimas oder der physiographischen Eigenschaften der Landoberfläche beeinflusst wird. Mittels einer integrierten Datenanalyse von vorhandenen langjährigen Archiven hydroklimatischer Zeitreihen werden die folgenden wissenschaftlichen Fragestellungen dieser Dissertation diskutiert: - Haben beobachtete Änderungen der Landoberfläche und des Klimas zu nachweisbaren, instationären hydroklimatischen Änderungen geführt? - Lassen sich die hydroklimatischen Auswirkungen von Klimaänderungen und Änderungen der Landoberfläche voneinander unterscheiden? - Welche Faktoren beeinflussen die Sensitivität von Abfluss und Verdunstung auf Veränderungen der klimatischen und physiographischen Randbedingungen? Hierbei fokussiert sich die Arbeit auf Änderungen im langjährige Mittel und im Jahresgang von hydroklimatischen Variablen auf der räumlichen Skala von Flusseinzugsgebieten. Zur Untersuchung des hydrologischen Regimes wurde ein harmonischer Filter angewandt, der es erlaubt, die Eintrittszeit des Jahresgangs (Phase) zu quantifizieren. Diese klimatologische Kenngröße wurde für eine Vielzahl von Einzugsgebieten in Sachsen untersucht, wobei sich vor allem für die Gebiete in den Kammlagen des Erzgebirges signifikante Veränderungen ergaben. Es konnte gezeigt werden, dass die signifikante Phasenverschiebung der Temperatur seit Ende der 1980er Jahre zu einer verfrühten Schneeschmelze und dadurch zu einem Rückgang des Abflusses bis in die Sommermonate hinein geführt hat. Desweiteren wurde eine modellbasierte Datenanalyse entwickelt, welche auf Massen- und Energieerhalt von Einzugsgebieten im langjährigen Mittel beruht. Das entwickelte Konzept erlaubt es, Auswirkungen von Klimaänderungen von anderen Effekten, welche z.B. durch Landnutzungsänderungen bedingt sind, abzugrenzen und zu quantifizieren. Die Ergebnisse einer Sensitivitätsanalyse dieses Konzeptes sowie die Anwendung auf einen umfangreichen hydroklimatischen Datensatz der USA zeigen: (i) Veränderungen im Wasser- oder Energiedargebot beeinflussen auch die Aufteilung der Wasser- und Energieflüsse. (ii) Die Aridität des Klimas und nachgeordnet die physiographischen Faktoren bestimmen die Sensitivität von Verdunstung und Abfluss. (iii) Beide Faktoren beeinflussen die Stärke und Richtung der Auswirkungen von physiographischen Änderungen. (iv) Anthropogene Veränderungen der Landoberfläche führten zum Teil zu stärkeren Auswirkungen als klimatisch bedingte Änderungen. Zusammenfassend zeigt sich, dass Änderungen von Landnutzung und Klima zu Verschiebungen im Wasserhaushalt führen können und damit auch die Annahme von Stationarität verletzen. Hydroklimatische Veränderungen bieten aber auch eine Gelegenheit zum Testen von Theorien und Modellen, um somit die grundlegenden Zusammenhänge zu erkennen, welche nicht durch Änderungen der Randbedingungen hinfällig werden.:Kurzfassung Abstract List of Manuscripts Symbols and abbreviations List of Symbols List of abbreviations 1 Introduction 1.1 Motivation and relevance 1.1.1 Scientific importance of evapotranspiration 1.1.2 Pressure of human driven changes 1.1.3 Practical importance of evapotranspiration 1.2 Scope 1.2.1 Focus on the catchment scale 1.2.2 Changes in the hydroclimatology of river catchments 1.2.3 Hydro-climate data analysis 1.3 Objectives and research questions 1.3.1 Shifting seasons in hydrology 1.3.2 Long-term annual average changes of evapotranspiration and streamflow 1.3.3 Methodological requirements 1.4 Structure of the thesis 2 Long term variability of the annual hydrological regime 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Motivation 2.1.2 Seasonal changes in hydrologic records 2.1.3 Regional climate in Saxony 2.1.4 Objective and structure 2.2 Methods 2.2.1 Annual periodic signal extraction 2.2.2 The runoff ratio and its annual phase 2.2.3 Descriptive circular statistics 2.2.4 Detection of nonstationarities, trends and change points 2.3 Data 2.4.1 Estimation and variability of the timing of the runoff ratio 2.4.2 Temporal variability of the timing 2.4.3 Does temperature explain trends in seasonality of runoff ratio? 2.4.4 Trend analysis in snow dominated basins 2.4.5 Uncertainty and significance of the results 2.5 Conclusions 2.A Preparation of basin input data 2.A.1 Precipitation 2.A.2 Temperature and snow depth data 3 Evaluation of water-energy balance frameworks 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Theory 3.2.1 Coupled water and energy balance 3.2.2 The ecohydrologic framework for change attribution 3.2.3 Applying the climate change hypothesis to predict changes in basin evapo transpiration and streamflow 3.2.4 Derivation of climatic sensitivity using the CCUW hypothesis 3.2.5 The Budyko hypothesis and derived sensitivities 3.3 Sensitivity analysis 3.3.1 Mapping of the Budyko functions into UW space 3.3.2 Mapping CCUW into Budyko space 3.3.3 Climatic sensitivity of basin evapotranspiration and streamflow 3.3.4 Climate-vegetation feedback effects 3.4 Application: three case studies 3.4.1 Mississippi River Basin (MRB) 3.4.2 Headwaters of the Yellow River Basin (HYRB) 3.4.3 Murray-Darling River Basin (MDB) 3.5 Conclusions 3.5.1 Potentials and limitations 3.5.2 Insights on the catchment parameter 3.5.3 Validation 3.5.4 Perspectives 3.A Derivation of the climate change direction 4 Climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States 4.1 Introduction 4.1.1 Motivation 4.1.2 Hydro-climate of the continental US 4.1.3 Aims and research questions 4.2 Methods 4.2.1 Ecohydrological concept to separate impacts of climate and basin changes 4.2.2 Streamflow change prediction based on a coupled water-energy balance framework 4.2.3 Streamflow change prediction based on the Budyko hypothesis 4.2.4 Statistical classification of potential climate and basin change impacts 4.3 Data 4.4 Results and discussion 4.4.1 Hydro-climate conditions in the US 4.4.2 Climate sensitivity of streamflow 4.4.3 Assessment of observed and predicted changes in streamflow 4.4.4 Uncertainty discussion 4.5 Conclusions 4.A Mathematical derivations for the Mezentsev function 5 Summary and conclusions 5.1 Shifting seasons in hydrology 5.1.1 Major findings 5.1.2 Socio-economic and political relevance 5.1.3 Limitations and possible directions for further research 5.2 Long-term annual changes in ET and streamflow 5.2.1 Major findings 5.2.2 Socio-economic and political relevance 5.2.3 Limitations and further research 5.3 General conclusions and outlook 5.3.1 Regional and temporal limits and validity 5.3.2 Hydrological records carry signals of climate and land use change 5.3.3 Statistical significance of past changes 5.3.4 Improvements in assessing ET 5.3.5 Remote sensing 5.3.6 Learning from the past to predict the future? Bibliography Danksagung Erklärung

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) including deforestation for agricultural land and others are elements that contribute on global environmental change. Therefore understanding a trend of these changes in the past, current, and future is important for making proper decisions to develop in a sustainable way. This study analyzed land use and land cover (LULC) changes over time for Tuy Duc district belonging to Dak Nong province based on LULC maps classified from a set of multidate satellite images captured in year 2003, 2006, 2009, and 2013 (SPOT 5 satellite images). The LULC spatio-temporal changes in the area were classified as perennial agriculture, cropland, residential area, grassland, natural forest, plantation and water surface. Based on these changes over time, potential LULC in 2023 was predicted using Cellular Automata (CA)–Markov model. The predicted results of the change in LULC in 2023 reveal that the total area of forest will lose 9,031ha accounting of 50% in total area of the changes. This may be mainly caused by converting forest cover to agriculture (account for 28%), grassland (12%) and residential area (9%). The findings suggest that the forest conversion needs to be controlled and well managed, and a reasonable land use plan should be developed in a harmonization way with forest resources conservation. / Thay đổi sử dụng đất và thảm phủ (LULCC) bao gồm cả việc phá rừng để phát triển nông nghiệp và vì các mục đích khác là tác nhân đóng góp vào biến đổi môi trường toàn cầu. Vì vậy hiểu biết về khuynh hướng của sự thay đổi này trong quá khứ, hiện tại và tương lai là quan trọng để đưa ra những quyết định dúng đắn để phát triển bền vững. Nghiên cứu đã phân tích LULCC trong thời gian qua dựa vào các bản đồ sử dụng đất và thảm phủ (LULC) đã được phân loại từ một loạt ảnh vệ tinh đa phổ được thu chụp vào năm 2003, 2006, 2009 (ảnh SPOT 5). Những thay đổi LULC theo thời gian và không gian trong khu vực được phân loại thành đất nông nghiệp với cây dài ngày, cây ngắn ngày, thổ cư, trảng cỏ cây bụi, rừng tự nhiên, rừng trồng và mặt nước. Dựa trên sự thay đổi này theo thời gian, LULC tiềm năng cho năm 2023 đã được dự báo bằng cách sử dụng mô hình CAMarkov. Kết quả dự báo LULCC năm 2023 đã cho thấy tổng diện tích rừng bị mất khoảng 9,031 ha chiếm 50% trong tổng số diện tích thay đổi. Điều này chủ yếu là do chuyển đổi từ rừng tự nhiên sang canh tác nông nghiệp (chiếm 28%), trảng cỏ cây bụi (12%) và khu dân cư (9%). Kết quả cho thấy việc chuyển đổi rừng cần phải được kiểm soát và quản lý tốt và một kế hoạch sử dụng đất hợp lý cần được xây dựng trong sự hài hòa với bảo tồn tài nguyên rừng.

Tropische Trockenwälder sind von großer Bedeutung für das Klima, die biologische Vielfalt und den Lebensunterhalt von Millionen von Menschen. Die Walddegradation bedroht die tropischen Trockenwälder, aber es fehlt an Wissen über ihre Muster, ihr Ausmaß und ihre Ursachen. Ziel dieser Arbeit war es, das derzeitige Verständnis der Walddegradation im argentinischen Dry Chaco mit Hilfe der Fernerkundung zu verbessern. Mithilfe des Landsat-Archivs habe ich die Störungsgeschichte des verbleibenden Waldes charakterisiert, die räumlichen und zeitlichen Muster der Störungsfaktoren bewertet und die langfristigen Auswirkungen der verschiedenen Faktoren auf die Waldstruktur untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass über 30 Jahre hinweg große Gebiete des argentinischen Dry Chaco (etwa 8 %) von Störungen betroffen waren. Meine Ergebnisse zeigen einen anthropogenen Zusammenhang mit den meisten Störungsarten, deuten aber auch auf einen komplexen indirekten Einfluss von Niederschlagsmustern hin, wobei Waldstörungen in Dürrejahren besonders verbreitet sind. Die Analyse der zeitlichen Muster der verschiedenen Einwirkungen zeigt Trends in der Landnutzung im Laufe der Zeit, wobei neue Landnutzungsformen wie silvopastorale Systeme entstehen und alte Praktiken wie die Abholzung jedes Jahr einen relativ stabilen Anteil der Flächen betreffen. Die Ergebnisse zu den langfristigen Auswirkungen von Störungen zeigen, dass sich die Waldstruktur bei den am weitesten verbreiteten Störungen über drei Jahrzehnte kaum oder gar nicht erholt, was auf eine großflächige Walddegradation schließen lässt. Diese Arbeit zeigt das Potenzial von Satellitenzeitreihen für eine robuste Charakterisierung der Walddynamik im Zusammenhang mit der Degradation auch in tropischen Trockenwäldern. Die aus dieser Arbeit resultierenden Karten, Ansätze und Erkenntnisse tragen zu einem besseren Verständnis der Walddegradation im Dry Chaco bei und können zu einem wirksameren Schutz der tropischen Trockenwälder beitragen. / Tropical dry forests are of great importance for climate regulation, harbour biodiversity and sustain the livelihood of millions of people. Deforestation and degradation threaten tropical dry forests but whereas our understanding of tropical deforestation has increased tremendously over the last decades, knowledge of the patterns, extent and drivers of forest degradation is lacking. This thesis aimed to advance the current understanding of forest degradation in the Dry Chaco by means of remote sensing. Using the Landsat archive, I characterized the disturbance history of the remaining Argentine Dry Chaco forest, assessed spatial and temporal patterns of disturbance agents, and investigated the long-term effect of different agents on forest structure. Results show that over 30 years large areas of the Argentine Dry Chaco (about 8%) were affected by disturbances. My findings reveal an anthropogenic link to most types of disturbances, while also suggesting complex indirect influence of precipitation patterns, with forest disturbances being particularly widespread during drought years. The analyses of temporal patterns of different agents reveals trends in land-use practices over time, with new land uses emerging, such as silvopastoral systems, and old practices such as logging, affecting a fairly stable share of areas every year. Findings on the long-term impact of disturbances indicate that for the most widespread disturbances, forest structure shows little or no recovery over three decades, which suggests forest degradation affecting large areas. This thesis demonstrates the potential of satellite time series for robust characterization of forest dynamics related to degradation also in tropical dry forests, despite the complex conditions these systems represent. The maps, approaches and knowledge resulting from this thesis contribute to a better understanding of forest degradation in the Dry Chaco and can inform more effective conservation of tropical dry forests.