本論文主要目地是在研究財務比率對上市公司發生下市事件之預測。我們運用歷史事件研究法和Cox迴歸模型去研究上市公司發生下市事件之原因。同時，我們也針對Cox迴歸模型和Logit模型在發現對下市事件有顯著影響的財務比率作比較。 / This study applies the event history analysis and the Cox regression model to examine the causes of firm delisting, and also compares the performance of the Cox regression model with that of the logit model in detecting factors that have a statistically significant impact on the delisting event. The empirical results show that the hazard rate of firm delisting increases with the ratio of current liabilities to current assets, a binary variable indicating if the total liabilities of a firm is greater than its total assets, and a binary variable indicating if the net income of a firm was negative for the last two quarters, while the hazard rate of firm delisting decreases with increases in the firm size and the ratio of funds provided by operations to total liabilities.

雖然人力資本在理論上的重要地位早已確立，但是，因為人力資本的衡量不易周延精確，使得其實證研究難有突破性的發展；所以，本論文嘗試透過具備個體基礎的理論架構，使用「人力運用調查」的原始資料進行實證分析，希望能進一步瞭解人力資本的性質、勞工流動的成因及這兩者如何影響個人的薪資與整體的成長。而在編排上，本論文則是由三篇可分割獨立的論文所組成。 第2章的重點是從同質人力資本的角度討論人力資本的衡量問題：基於薪資可以反映勞動生產力的概念，本章嘗試使用各個勞工與基礎勞工間推估預期薪資的比率做為代表人力品質之權數，以建構較完整的台灣人力資本指標；從成長會計分析及總合生產函數迴歸估計的實證結果來看，考量人力品質提升的勞動投入約可解釋18% 至35% 的經濟成長，遠高於實際工時的15%；惟近年來台灣人力品質的提升似乎逐漸減緩，不利於後續的經濟成長。 第3章的重點是使用多項式logit模型討論勞工的流動現象，而且其估計結果亦成為第4章必需的實證基礎：鑑於台灣的產業結構一再歷經巨幅的改變，本章將勞工是否異動視為共包括「不換工作」、「換工作但不換產業」及「換工作又換產業」三個選項的決策問題，並援引非巢式logit模型及巢式logit模型對其進行分析。從總括值迴歸係數的檢測來看，巢式模型與隨機效用理論是互不相容的，只有非巢式模型具有較完整堅固的個體基礎。 第4章的重點是從異質人力資本的角度討論產業特定型人力資本是否存在的問題：因為台灣現有的資料庫缺少產業年資等相關資料，所以，本章擬將重點置於轉換工作者，研究轉換產業是否會影響其現職前一般經驗與現職工資之間的關係，以間接分析產業特定型人力資本在台灣的存在性及重要性。從實證結果來看，一般而言，產業特定型人力資本也許並不是非常重要，但應該仍是存在的，亦即仍會對勞工在不同產業間的重新配置產生一定的影響。

不動產證券化可行性之研究 摘要 為解決傳統不動產投資困境，將不動產投資方式由固定的資產形式轉變為證券型態的概念，而有不動產證券化（Real Estate Securitization）的產生。國內主要的不動產證券化模式分為不動產投資信託（Real Estate Investment Trust）與不動產資產信託（Real Estate Asset Trust），這兩種模式未來市場供需面實際運作的可行性為何，將是不動產證券化制度成功與否的重要關鍵。 本研究先從需求面投資者的角度切入，透過問卷調查資料，運用Logit模型探討證券化可行性因素對於投資者購買不動產受益證券的影響。實證結果發現，一般投資者認為受益證券的市場流通性、分散風險的重要性愈高，以及預期報酬率愈高，其購買不動產受益證券的可能性愈高；在總體因素方面，對於未來證券市場情況愈樂觀，以及房地產市場情況愈樂觀，其購買受益證券的機率將愈高；法人投資者則認為分散風險的重要性愈高，以及該法人機構主要投資工具的種類愈多，其購買不動產受益證券的機率愈大。 以供給面不動產持有者財務上的可行性而言，其財務目標在追求自身的ROE極大化，因此不動產持有者將視各項風險來源對於投資報酬的影響，決定是否運用證券化投資方式。模擬分析結果發現，除了不動產持有者本身的財務結構限制與不動產經營能力之外，在個別考量委託成本風險與開發風險的情況下，其對於不動產持有者ROE的影響較小，但營運風險相較於其他風險來源，對於不動產持有者ROE的影響較大；綜合各項風險來源同時納入考量時，發現不動產持有者自有資金比例愈低，其運用證券化方式的ROE較高，但變動的幅度也較大。此一實證與模擬分析結果，對於未來國內不動產證券化實際運作，可提供政府、業者及一般投資大眾作為決策參考。 關鍵字：不動產證券化、不動產投資信託、不動產資產信託、Logit模型、蒙地卡羅模擬 / A Feasibility Study of Real Estate Securitization in Taiwai Abstract By transforming real assets into securities , real estate securitization is created to solve the liquidity problem of real estate investment. The real estate securitization system in Taiwan is divided into two types - Real Estate Investment Trust and Real Estate Asset Trust. Whether the real estate securitization system succeeds or not is based on the feasibility of the market operation in practice. On the demand side, this research uses Logit model to analyze the impact of the feasibility of the real estate securitization system on the investors’ behavior of buying beneficiary certificates by sampling from intuitional investors and individual investors. The empirical results show that the individual investors emphasize on liquidity, divergence, and expected return. In addition, the probability of buying real estate beneficiary certificates increases with the degree of their optimistic expectation on both the stock and the real estate markets. However, the institutional investors regard the divergence of portfolios and investment instruments as the main factors of their buying those certificates. On the supply side, given the financial objective of ROE maximum, the owners of the real estate will review all of impacts of risk on return of investment before their decision to take the way of securitization. In addition to the financial structure and the management ability of the owners, the results of Monte Carlo simulation on the effect of real estate securitization also reveal that: a. There is little influence on the ROE of the owners’ real assets while taking trust cost risk and land development cost risk into consideration. b. The influence of operation risk on ROE is more than that of other risks. c. Lower the proportion of capital, higher the ROE and bigger the variation of the ROE are. The results of empirical analysis can be a reference of decision making for Government, trust industry, and investors in the real estate security market operation. Keywords：Real Estate Securitization , Real Estate Investment Trust , Real Estate Asset Trust , Logit Model , Monte Carlo Simulation