Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / Lance J. Bachmeier / This dissertation consists of three essays in nonlinear macroeconomic modeling and econometrics. In the first essay, we decompose oil price movements into oil demand (stock market) shocks and oil supply (oil-market) shocks, and examine the response of the stock market to these shocks. We find that when oil prices are “net-increasing”, a stock market shock that causes the S&P 500 to rise by one percentage point will cause the price of oil to rise approximately 0.2 percentage points, with a statistically significant positive effect one day after the stock market shock. On the other hand, the response of the stock market to an oil market shock is a decline of 6.8 percent when the price of oil doubles. For other days, the initial response of the oil market to a stock market shock is the same as in the net oil price increase case (by construction). We then analyze the response of monetary policy to the identified stock market and oil market shocks and find that short-term interest rates respond to the stock market shocks but not the oil market shocks. Finally, we evaluate the predictive power of the decomposed stock market and oil shocks relative to the change in the price of oil. We find statistically significant gains in both the in-sample fit and out-of-sample forecast accuracy when using the identified stock market and oil market shocks rather than the change in the price of oil. The second essay revisits the statistical specification of near-multicollinearity in the logistic regression model using the Probabilistic Reduction approach. We argue that the ceteris paribus clause invoked with near-multicollinearity is rather misleading. This assumption states that one can assess the impact of near-multicollinearity by holding the parameters of the logistic regression model constant, while examining the impact on their standard errors and t-ratios as the correlation (\rho) between the regressors increases. Using the Probabilistic Reduction approach, we derive the parameters (and related statisitics) of the logistic regression model and show that they are functions of \rho , indicating the ceteris paribus clause in the traditional account of near multicollinearity is unattainable. Monte carlo simulations in the paper confirm these findings. We also show that traditional near-multicollinearity diagnostics, such as the variance inflation factor and condition number can fail to detect near-multicollinearity. Overall, the paper finds that near-multicollinearity in the logistic model is highly variable and may not lead to the problems indicated by the traditional account. Therefore, unexpected, unreliable or unstable estimates and inferences should not be blamed on near-multicollinearity. Rather the modeler should return to economic theory or statistical respecification of their model to address these problems. The third essay examines the correlations between income inequality and economic growth using a panel of income distribution data for 3,109 counties of the U.S. We examine the non-spatial dynamic correlations between county inequality and growth using a System GMM approach, and find significant negative relationships between changes in inequality in one period and growth in the subsequent period. We show that this finding is robust across different sample sizes. We further argue that because the space-specific time-invariant variables that affect economic growth and inequality can differ significantly across counties, failure to incorporate spatial effects into a model of growth and inequality may lead to biased results.We assume that dependence among counties only arises from the disturbance process, hence the estimation of a spatial error model. Our results indicate that the bias in the parameter for inequality amounts to about 2.66 percent, while that for initial income amounts to about 21.51 percent.

La presente tesis realiza el análisis y evaluación de los determinantes del Factoring Internacional aplicado al sector Agropecuario y cómo contribuye en el financiamiento a corto plazo en el proceso de internacionalización de las Pymes Agroexportadoras del Perú. En el primer capítulo se describirá el marco teórico de los temas básicos que abarca esta investigación científica. En el segundo capítulo se plantea la problemática, se establece la hipótesis general y las hipótesis específicas de la presente tesis, así como el objetivo principal, y los objetivos específicos. En el tercer capítulo se desarrollará la metodología de trabajo, la cual explicará cómo será el alcance y diseño de la investigación, la operacionalización de las variables respecto a la población y tamaño de la muestra, los instrumentos metodológicos para el recojo de la investigación, que constará de una primera etapa cualitativa y una segunda etapa cuantitativa. Seguidamente en el cuarto capítulo se desarrollará la aplicación principal mediante la herramienta cualitativa enfocada en las entrevistas a profundidad. Finalmente, para el quinto capítulo se analizarán los resultados cuantitativos, los cuales se interpretarán mediante un modelo de regresión lineal simple utilizando los programas econométricos de SPSS y Eviews a través de diferentes pruebas. / This thesis carries out the analysis and evaluation of the determinants of International Factoring applied to the agricultural sector and how it contributes to short-term financing in the process of internationalization of Agro-exporting SMEs in Metropolitan Lima. In the first chapter, the theoretical framework of the basic topics covered by this scientific research will be described. In the second chapter the problem is posed, the general hypothesis and the specific hypotheses of the present thesis are established, as well as the main objective and the specific objectives. In the third chapter, the work methodology will be developed, which will include the scope and design of the research, the operalization of the variables with respect to the population and size of the sample, the methodological instruments for the collection of the research. Which will consist of a qualitative first stage and a second quantitative stage. Then, in the fourth chapter, the main application will be developed through the qualitative tool focused on in-depth interviews. Finally, for the fifth chapter, the quantitative results will be analyzed, which will be interpreted through a simple linear regression model in the statistical programs of SPSS and Eviews through different tests. / Tesis

Este trabalho analisa a importância das variáveis macroeconômicas fundamentais na explicação do diferencial de juros dos países periféricos europeus depois de 2009. Mostramos que, após a Alemanha rejeitar o resgate dos títulos gregos, os investidores não só passaram a exigir maiores rentabilidades dos países periféricos com maior endividamento em relação ao PIB como também passaram a utilizar outras medidas macroeconômicas fundamentais para atribuir preço aos títulos soberanos: o crescimento real do PIB e a taxa efetiva de câmbio. Também verificamos que mudanças na volatilidade do S&P medidas pelo índice Vix passaram a ser significativas na formação de preço dos títulos após 2010, demonstrando que os investidores consideraram os países periféricos europeus menos seguros após essa decisão de a Alemanha não resgatar os títulos gregos. / This work investigates the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals in explaining the increase in the peripheral European sovereign spreads after 2009. After Germany refused to bail-out Greece, we show that investors not only increased the peripheral European sovereign spreads explained by the debt to GDP ratio, but also started pricing risk by observing additional macroeconomic fundamentals: the real gdp growth rate and the real effective exchange rate. We also show that changes in the Vix are priced only after 2010, demonstrating that investors considered European peripheral countries less safe after Germany decided not to bail-out Greece.

[pt] O objetivo principal do trabalho é avaliar as vantagens e desvantagens associadas à utilização, no âmbito de uma pequena economia aberta, de um mecanismo de intervenção sobre variações dos preços relativos domésticos de insumos intermediários comerciáveis. Esse mecanismo pode ser implementado por meio de uma combinação de tributos e subsídios às importações e exportações dos insumos comerciáveis, com alíquotas variáveis ao longo do tempo. Tal intervenção assume o papel de um instrumento auxiliar de estabilização que, ao ser manejado de forma coordenada com a taxa de juros nominal e os demais instrumentos convencionais de política monetária, pode vir a melhorar a resposta da economia aos choques que a atingem. Um exemplo concreto desse tipo de mecanismo é a CIDE (Contribuição de Intervenção sobre o Domínio Econômico), que tinha entre seus intuitos originais impedir que a volatilidade do preço do petróleo no mercado internacional se transmitisse integralmente aos preços domésticos dos derivados. O trabalho, portanto, destina-se a analisar e responder as seguintes questões: (i) determinar as circunstâncias nas quais a intervenção sobre os preços internacionais dos insumos pode se somar à manipulação da taxa de juros nominal na tentativa de melhor estabilizar a economia; (ii) investigar a natureza da intervenção ótima, ou seja, como o instrumento auxiliar e a taxa de juros nominal devem se movimentar conjuntamente em resposta aos choques; e (iii) medir os ganhos de bem estar que advêm da disponibilidade desse instrumento auxiliar de estabilização. / [en] The main purpose of the current work is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of using a mechanism which intervenes in domestic relative prices of tradable intermediate goods. Such a mechanism can be implemented by a combination of taxes and subsidies to imports and exports of tradable intermediate goods, with rates that vary over time. This intervention performs as an auxiliary stabilization instrument that is managed in a coordinated fashion with more conventional ones, such as the nominal interest rate. In the end this work will look into the matters of (i) investigating the circumstances under which the intervention in international commodity prices, together with the nominal interest rate, might help in the task of stabilizing the economy; (ii) determining the optimal response of the available instruments to the shocks that hit the economy; and (iii) measuring the welfare consequences of the availability of this auxiliary stabilization instrument.

Este estudo tem como principal objetivo analisar a relação causal entre um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas e o mercado acionário brasileiro, aqui representado pelo Ibovespa, e para tal utilizará o enfoque multivariado VAR. Buscou-se analisar o efeito dos choques inesperados nas variáveis macroeconômicas sobre o índice da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo. O período analisado compreendeu os meses de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2003. O modelo proposto, visando à análise, foi implementado utilizando-se os testes de raiz unitária de Dickey e Fuller Aumentado (ADF) e Perron, de co-integração de Johansen e o método de Auto Regressão Vetorial com Correção de Erro (VEC). Primeiramente empregou-se o VEC convencional seguindo a proposição de Gjerde & Sættem (1999) e Burgstaller (2002). Os resultados obtidos deixaram claro a sua instabilidade. Buscando eliminar esta instabilidade empregou-se o procedimento de Bernanke (1986). Os resultados dos três modelos analisados mostram-se semelhantes. Nas matrizes de relações contemporâneas observam-se relações significativas entre a taxa de câmbio real e a taxa de juros de curto prazo com o Ibovespa. Por sua vez, o preço do petróleo no mercado internacional não explica contemporaneamente o Ibovespa. Nas decomposições das variâncias dos erros de previsão os resultados deixam claro o poder explanatório da taxa de juros de curto prazo sobre o índice da Bolsa de São Paulo. O próprio índice também tem um grande poder explicativo, importância essa não observada quando da análise das outras variáveis empregadas. Conforme verificado na matriz de relações contemporâneas, um choque inesperado na taxa de câmbio real e a taxa de juros de curto prazo leva a uma redução no Ibovespa já no primeiro momento. Os resultados obtidos deixam claro a elevada sensibilidade do Ibovespa frente à taxa de juros real de curto prazo (SELIC), tanto no tocante a decomposição do erro de previsão quanto da função de resposta a impulsos elasticidade. Dentre as variáveis empregadas no presente estudo, a taxa básica de juros da economia é a que mais impacta no índice da BOVESPA. Esse resultado mostra a importância exercida pela taxa de juros na economia brasileira, sugerindo, assim, que os agentes econômicos que investem no mercado acionário brasileiro vêem o investimento em renda fixa como sendo grande substituto das aplicações em ações. / The main objective of this study was to investigate the casual relationship among a sort of macroeconomic variables and the Brazilian stock market, represented here by Ibovespa, using multivariate VAR focus. This meant to analyze the effect of unexpected shocks in macroeconomic variables on São Paulo Stock Exchange index. The period of study was from January 1995, to December 2003. The present model was implemented using augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit root (ADF) and Perron, Johansen co-integration in VAR models and the method of Vector Auto-Regression with error correction (VEC). First of all, conventional VEC was used according to Gjerde & Saettem (1999) and Burgstaller (2002). Data showed clearly the instability of the process. Aiming to eliminate this instability, Bernanke (1986) procedure was used. Results of the three models analyzed were similar. In contemporaneous relation matrixes were observed significant relations between the real exchange rate and short run interest rate in comparison to Ibovespa. On the other hand, petroleum prices set in the international market do not explain Ibovespa contemporaneously. In variables decomposition of forecast error, data is clear in showing the explanation power of short term interest on São Paulo Stock Exchange index. Index per se explains itself conveniently, what was not observed when analyzed the other variables investigated. As noticed in contemporaneous relation matrix, an unexpected shock in the real exchange rate and the interest rate of short date leads to a reduction in Ibovespa at the first moment. Data obtained showed strong sensibility of Ibovespa in comparison to real short term interest rate (SELIC), when observed the decomposition of the forecast error and function of impulse response of elasticity. Among used variables in this present study, basic interest rate of the economy is the one that most shock in BOVESPA index. This result shows the importance exerted by interest rates in Brazilian economy, suggesting that economic agents that invest in Brazilian stock market are more interested in investment of fixed rent than in stock applications.

The diploma Thesis objective is analysis of macroeconomic development of Belarus during years 2000-2011. I've decided to focus on the effects of monetary policy that was executed by the central bank in particular years. The final outcome of the macroeconomic analysis is the evaluation of the success of monetary policy executed by the central bank.

O desempenho agrícola está condicionado a fatores exógenos e endógenos ao setor. Os fatores exógenos têm origem tanto no exterior, frutos da evolução da economia internacional, como no próprio país, originando-se nas evoluções de caráter macroeconômico. Os fatores endógenos vinculam-se a iniciativas e eventos do próprio setor, muitas vezes em resposta aos fatores exógenos. Sendo assim, o objetivo deste trabalho foi recuperar a partir das intenções e ações governamentais ao intervir no setor agrícola direta ou indiretamente, como se conformaram as políticas agrícola e agrária brasileira e qual o papel da agricultura para o desenvolvimento econômico brasileiro, a partir da década de noventa. A hipótese testada foi a de que as políticas agrícola e agrária no Brasil são conformadas em harmonia com a política macroeconômica. Para testar tal hipótese, analisamos a comportamento da política macroeconômica brasileira bem como esta se conforma diante do processo de globalização financeira, para depois então compreender o setor agrícola. A base empírica para esta investigação constituiu-se de pesquisas, estudos e dados secundários que tratam da temática. A análise de tais fontes empíricas permitiu concluir que a hipótese básica estava correta. Ou seja, a partir dos anos noventa, a conformação da política macroeconômica está condicionada ao processo de globalização financeira, e as políticas setoriais, particularmente as políticas agrícola e agrária, estão em harmonia com a política macroeconômica nacional. A inserção da agricultura na dinâmica do capital financeiro decorre de determinantes globais que conferem as características mais amplas à expansão do processo de acumulação, mas está condicionado às especificidades definidas pela forma como a economia brasileira se inseriu ao processo de globalização financeira. / The agricultural performance is subject to endogenous and exogenous factors to the sector. The exogenous factors have both home abroad, the fruits of developments in the international economy, as in their own country, causing around the character of macroeconomic developments. The endogenous factors linked to events and initiatives of the sector, often in response to exogenous factors. Therefore, the objective of this work was recovering from governmental actions and intentions to intervene in the agricultural sector directly or indirectly, as if shaped the policies and Brazilian agricultural land and what the role of agriculture for the Brazilian economic development, from the decade -nineties. The tested hypothesis was that the policies and agricultural land in Brazil are formed in line with macroeconomic policy. To test this hypothesis, we analyzed the behavior of Brazilian macroeconomic policy and it conforms forward the process of financial globalization, then to understand the agricultural sector. The empirical basis for this research consisted of surveys, studies and secondary data dealing with the issue. The empirical analysis of such sources has concluded that the basic assumption was correct. That is, from the early nineties, the conformation of macroeconomic policy is subject to the process of financial globalization, and sectorial policies, particularly the agricultural and agrarian policies are in line with the national macroeconomic policy. The inclusion of agriculture in the dynamics of financial capital due to global determine the features that add to the expansion of the broader process of accumulation, but is subject to the specific defined by the way if the Brazilian economy entered the process of financial globalization.

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The emergence of capital markets in Asia and South America, the relaxation of foreign capital controls and the adoption of flexible exchange rate regimes has prompted heavy cross-border investments in recent years.  Simultaneously, volatility in these foreign exchange markets has increased, leading to increased risk following the adoption of these flexible exchange regimes.  As such, investors have become more interested in knowing what impact the volatile markets have on their investments.  This, they seek to know, through the returns on their stock investments as stock prices are said to be a representation of firm value.   This thesis uses firm size as a parameter to analyse the role of macroeconomic variables with emphasis on  exchange rate variability on stock returns using data from 67 Swedish companies listed on the Stockholm stock exchange and selected from all the three market capitalization segments (large cap, mid cap and small cap) according to the OMX index classification. We used returns from all the non-financial firms listed on the Stockholm stock exchange between the years 1997 to 2009.  Based on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, and using multiple regression model, we sought to ascertain  if the effect of movements in the SEK/USD and SEK/Euro exchange rates are different for companies of the small, mid and large capitalizations segments of the OMX Stockholm stock exchange and which other control variables will influence these returns more than the exchange rate movements.   Using bilateral monthly exchange rates for the USD and Euro, we find that 55 out of the 67 companies are significantly exposed to exchange rate changes within all the segments.  These are almost evenly distributed relatively across all the capitalization segments though the absolute numbers may differ considerably.  We further use one-way ANOVA to find out if there are any differences in the means of the exposures of the companies in the respective segments.  Still, we find no significant difference in their means.  These therefore give little evidence to conclude that there is actually a difference in the exposure of firms in the respective capitalisation segments to exchange variations.  We also discover that apart from exchange rate variations, other macroeconomic variables also play a big role in determining the returns of the stocks of firms.

This dissertation comprises two essays. The first essay explores how the size of government, as measured by the level of spending, affects growth. Theoretical models suggest a nonlinear relationship; however, testing this hypothesis empirically in cross-country studies is complicated by the endogeneity of government spending and the accurate identification of turning points. This paper examines the nonlinear hypothesis by incorporating threshold analysis in a cross-country growth regression. Using a broad panel of countries over the period 1971-2005, the results show evidence in favor of a nonlinear effect, but not of the form predicted by theory. When total government spending is low, there is no statistically significant effect on economic growth. However, after passing a certain threshold government spending exhibits a negative effect on growth. The second essay develops a dynamic macroeconomic model to explore how variations in the composition and financing of government expenditures affect economic growth in the long-run. The model is used to analyze how public investment spending funded by taxes or borrowing affects long-term output growth. The model is calibrated to reflect economic conditions in the seven largest Latin American economies during the period 1990 to 2008. We find that, where tax rates are not already high, funding public investment by raising taxes may increase long-run growth. If existing tax rates are high, then public investment is only growth-enhancing if funded by restructuring the composition of public spending. Interestingly, using debt to finance new public investment compromises growth, regardless of the initial fiscal condition.