The event of a default for low-default portfolios, such as sovereign debt or banks, have received much attention as a result of the increasing instabilities in financial markets. The lack of sufficient default information on low-default portfolios complicates the protection of such portfolios. Default protections have typically, in the past, relied on extreme value theory and reporting the value at risk. The focus here, is the application of an engineering concept, accelerated test techniques, to the problem of insufficient data on low-default portfolios. In the application, high-default portfolios serve as stressed cases of low-default portfolios. Since high-default portfolios have more data available, viewing it as a stressed case of a low-default portfolio enables us to extrapolate the data to the low-default portfolio environment, and do estimation such as estimating the default probability for a low-default portfolio. The flexible framework through which the above is achieved, is provided. / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2016. / Statistics / MSc / Unrestricted

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ESG-score är ett hållbarhetsmått som blivit allt mer aktuellt och innefattar områdena miljö, socialt ansvar samt bolagsstyrning. Uppsatsen undersöker tidigare studier kring ESG och intresset för hur hållbarhet har ökat i samhället. Med det som grund är syftet att vidare undersöka hur olika företags ESG-score påverkar deras finansiella utfall, avgränsat till börsnoterade företag på den svenska marknaden samt utvalda finansiella mått. Regressioner av uppsatsens datainsamling har utförts för att undersöka om ESG-score har en signifikant påverkan på de olika finansiella utfallen. Tidigare studier har haft delade meningar huruvida ett samband existerar, samt kring tillförlitligheten av betyget. Flera studier uppmanar till mer forskning inom området vilket har motiverat uppsatsen forskningsområde. Studiens resultat finner slutligen ett negativt signifikant samband mellan ESG-score och Market to Book, de resterande finansiella utfallen visar inget statistiskt signifikant samband till företagens ESG-score.

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The paper deals with stock market indices. It reveals the flaws inherent in traditional market capitalization weighted indices, that causes a return drag. At the same time it shows how you can get rid of these flaws by using fundamental indices, and gives proofs about their superiority. The practical part focuses on building fundamental indices of czech stocks traded on the Prague Stock Exchange, dealing with historical data. It empirically demonstrates their outperformance of a benchmark market capitalization weighted index.

Background Equity research analysts publish reports containing recommendations and target prices for stocks. A lot of research has been carried out on the subject of accuracy in earnings per share forecasts. Studies have also been made regarding target price accuracy on different markets and for bigger companies. This study concerns the target price accuracy on the Swedish market and for companies from the lists OMX Stockholm Small Cap-, Mid Cap- and Large Cap. The difference from earlier studies is therefore the focus on target price accuracy difference between large and small companies. Aim The aim of this thesis is to analyze the target price accuracy on the Swedish market and compare this accuracy between big and small companies to see if there is any connection between company size and target price accuracy. Completion The study has been conducted with a quantitative method and a deductive approach. Data for 98 companies on the Swedish market has been collected to be able to calculate the absolute forecasting error for three, six- and twelve-month horizons. The absolute forecasting error is then analysed through a regression to be able to see if there is any connection between the absolute forecasting error and the variables beta, difference between highest and lowest target price, difference between target price and actual price, market capitalization, sales, trading volume and volatility. The accuracy has also been studied by looking at if the target price has been reached during the same time horizons. Results The results of this study show that the ratios of achieved buy recommendations and hold recommendations are higher for constituents of OMX Stockholm Large Cap whilst sell recommendations are more often achieved for OMX Stockholm Small Cap and OMX Stockholm Mid Cap constituents. Most differences are statistically significant at least at a 5% level of significance. The regressions show that at three and six-month horizons a higher Beta and trading volume leads to a smaller absolute forecasting error. Increased discrepancy, absolute target price potential, market capitalization, sales and volatility lead to a higher absolute forecasting error. At a twelve-month horizon, the absolute forecasting error has a positive relationship with discrepancy, absolute target price potential, market capitalization, trading volume and volatility. Beta and sales show a negative relationship with the absolute forecasting error. / Bakgrund Aktieanalytiker publicerar ofta rapporter innehållandes riktkurser och rekommendationer. Det har gjorts många studier på ämnet träffsäkerhet för vinst per aktie prognoser. Det har även gjorts studier på riktkursträffsäkerhet på andra marknader samt främst för stora bolag. Denna studie behandlar riktkursträffsäkerheten på den svenska marknaden för företag från listorna OMX Stockholm Small Cap- , Mid Cap- och Large Cap. Skillnaden från tidigare studier är alltså att fokus ligger på skillnader i riktkursträffsäkerhet mellan små och stora bolag. Syfte Syftet med denna studie är att beräkna aktieanalytikers träffsäkerhet avseende riktkurs på den svenska aktiemarknaden och jämföra denna träffsäkerhet mellan större och mindre bolag för att se om den skiljer sig åt. Genomförande Studien har genomförts med en kvantitativ metod och deduktiv ansats. Data för 98 bolag på den svenska marknaden har samlats in för att beräkna det absoluta prognosfelet för perioderna tre, sex och tolv månader efter utgiven riktkurs. Detta prognosfel har sedan undersökts genom regressioner för att se om det finns ett samband med variablerna beta, diskrepans mellan högsta och lägsta riktkurs, absolut kurspotential, marknadsvärde, omsättning, handelsvolym och volatilitet. Dessa variabler har valts då de visat skilja sig signifikant mellan stora och små bolag. Träffsäkerheten har även undersökts genom att analysera om aktiekursen någon gång uppgår till riktkursen under samma tidsspann som för det absoluta prognosfelet. Resultat Resultatet i denna studie visar att andelen uppnådda köp-och behållrekommendationer är högre för bolag tillhörande OMX Stockholm Large Cap medan säljrekommendationer uppnås oftare för bolag tillhörande OMX Stockholm Small Cap och OMX Stockholm Mid Cap. De flesta skillnaderna är statistisk signifikanta vid minst 5% signifikansnivå. Regressionerna visar att på tre samt sex månaders sikt leder högre Beta och handelsvolym till mindre absolut prognosfel. Ökad diskrepans, absolut kurspotential, marknadsvärde, omsättning och volatilitet ger ett högre prognosfel. På tolv månaders sikt uppvisar diskrepans, absolut kurspotential, marknadsvärde, handelsvolym samt volatilitet ett positivt samband med absolut prognosfel. Beta och omsättning har ett negativt samband.

Current multifactor valuation pricing models use size (measured by market capitalization) of a firm as one factor to determine the value of a security. The problem with current standard models was that none of them could explain the value of a security consistently and accurately based on current factors and in particular the size factor. The purpose of this quantitative study using existing time-series data over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015 was to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return. There are currently many valuation models but there is no 2-factor model or a model that uses a size factor that includes mid-cap sized securities. The research questions examined mid-cap sized securities for the size factor in a 2-factor model to determine the accuracy of predicting financial returns compared to the current standard Fama-French 3-factor model. The main theoretical framework that guided the study was the efficient market hypothesis that postulates that the price of a stock reflects all relevant available information. Data were collected for historical returns of 15 individual firms and portfolios of securities based on size. Multiple regression analysis methodology was used to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return in the modified 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The results of the study indicate that size is a statistically significant factor in a 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The positive social impact of this study is that it could provide greater confidence in financial markets by providing a fair and equitable means of investment and flow of capital for a robust economy.

Market multiples are a common and simple tool for estimation of corporate value. It can express temporal dynamics and differences in markets, industries and firms. Despite their practical usefulness, some critical problems remains which continue to be debated. This thesis investigates if there exists characteristics for explaining market capitalization by market multiples within the life science industry in Sweden. The approach follows well known theory of multiple linear regression analysis. The results indicated only a linear relationship between the market cap and the R\&D expenditures of a company. This does not mean that the other explanatory variables does not have effect on market cap only that there is no linear relationship that could be statistically proven. / Värderingsmultiplar är ett vanligt och enkelt verktyg för att approximera företags värde. Det kan beskriva temporär dynamik och skillnader hos marknader, industrier och bolag. Trots dess praktiska användbarhet finns en del kritiska problem som fortfarande debatteras. Denna uppsats undersöker om det existerar några egenskaper för att förklara marknadsvärdet med hjälp av värderingsmultiplar inom life science industrin i Sverige. Tillvägagångssättet följer välkänd teori om multipel linjär regressions analys. Resultaten visade att det endast finns ett samband mellan marknadsvärdet och utgifter för forskning och utveckling för ett bolag. Detta innebär inte att de andra variablerna inte har någon effekt på marknadsvärdet, utan att det inte finns ett linjärt samband som kan bevisas på ett statistiskt vis.

Recent failure of such companies as Enron, Worldcom and Parmala showed that there are internal reasons contributing to company’s financial distress. Financial distress is a condition when a company fails to meet its debt obligations. Board of directors is liable for long-term decisions and their ineffective work in monitoring and controlling management can influence companies’ performance. With that in mind, in this degree project, we would like to answer the following research question: “What is the relationship between characteristics of Board and probability of financial distress, measured by Altman’s Z-score models in Sweden and Denmark?”   The epistemological and ontological choices for our study were positivism and objectivism with deductive approach. We have calculated Z-scores of Swedish and Danish companies in order to detect distressed and healthy companies. Further on, the information about board composition in each company was collected; mainly we were interested in board independence, board size, board ownership, COB ownership, CEO duality and employee representatives.   In order to examine if there is a relationship between board composition and financial distress, we have done Multiple and Binary Regression analyses. Based on the results we can state that board independence, board ownership and employee representatives and market capitalization (control variable) have significant relationship with probability of financial distress. Our study is interesting since we have looked at employee representatives, as a board characterectic that is specific for Nordic countries and that was not studied before. In addition, we have found that there is no CEO duality in Sweden and Denmark, since all companies in our sample followed the Companies’ Acts. COB ownership, the additional variable we wanted to test and board size have shown no significant relationship.

Att göra en rättvis prissättning av aktier vid en börsintroduktion kan vara svårt och det är i företagens, emissionsinstitutens och investerarnas intresse att detta sker. Rådande informationsasymmetri leder ofta till att aktier underprissätts för att locka investerare att delta vid en börsintroduktion. Syftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka skillnader i aktiekursens utveckling den första handelsdagen på de officiella och de inofficiella börslistorna för att se om varierande krav på informationsutgivning och marknadsvärde har en påverkande faktor. De officiella börslistorna som undersöks är Nasdaq Small, Mid och Large Cap, medan de inofficiella börslistorna är First North och Spotlight. Undersökningens resultat visar att företagens marknadsvärde inte har en betydande påverkan på aktiekursutvecklingen den första handelsdagen då samtliga börslistor på Nasdaq hade en liknande utveckling samt andel underprissatta aktier. Detta trots att kravet på marknadsvärde för att noteras på dessa börslistor skiljer sig markant. De olika börslistornas krav gällande informationsutgivning har visat sig ha en betydande påverkan på aktiekursutvecklingen. Resultatet visar även att inofficiella börslistor har en större spridning av aktiekursutvecklingar där det förekom mycket höga under- och överprissättningar. Detta innebär att investerare som deltar vid en börsintroduktion på First North och Spotlight tar högre risk samt har möjlighet till högre avkastning. / Pricing shares for an upcoming IPO can be difficult and it is in the companies’, theInvestment Bank’s and investor’s interest that the shares are fairly priced. The current information asymmetry often results in companies underpricing their shares to attract investors to participate in an upcoming IPO. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the difference in share performance on the first trading day between different stock lists on the Swedish IPO market. This is done in order to see if the different listing requirements, such as information publishing and market capitalization, are important factors for the underpricing of shares. The different stock lists that have been analyzed are Small, Mid and Large Capfrom Nasdaq OMX Stockholm which are all official stock lists, as well as the Multilateral Trading Facilities (MTF) First North and Spotlight. The result of this study shows that market capitalization doesn’t affect the pricing of shares for upcoming IPOs. This because there was minor differences between the different official stock lists Small, Mid and Large Cap, eventhough the required market capitalization to get listed are very different. The different requirements regarding information publishing however, have shown leads to more inaccurately priced shares. The result shows that MTFs’ such as First North and Spotlight experience a wider range of pricing where the average under- and overpricing är very high.This means a higher risk for the investor, but also the potential for higher returns.