This thesis deals with the new flow-based computation method used in the Central Western Europe Area. This is done on the financial side. The main aim is to produce some robust methods for predicting. Two approaches are used: the first one is based on a deterministic and algorithmic method involving the study of the interaction between the fundamentals and the prices. The other one is a more statistical approach based on a time series modeling of the French flow-based prices. Both approaches have advantages and disadvantages which will be discussed in the following. The work is mainly based on global simulated data provided by CASC in their implementation phase of the flow-base in Western Europe. / Denna avhandling behandlar den nya flödesbaserade beräkningsmetoden som används i Centrala Västeuropa på ekonomisidan. Målet är att producera tillförlitliga metoder för prognostisering. Två tillvägagångssätt kan användas: den första är baserad på en deterministisk och algoritmisk metod som inbegriper studier av interaktionen mellan fundamenta och priserna. Den andra är en mer statistisk metod som bygger på en tidsseriemodellering av de franska flödesbaserade priserna. Båda tillvägagångssätten har fördelar och nackdelar som kommer som diskuteras i det följande. Arbetet är främst baserade på globala simulerade data från CASC i genomförandefasen av flödesbasen i Västeuropa.

This work deals with problems where multiple actors simultaneously take control decisions and implement the corresponding actions in large multi-area power systems. The fact that those actions take place in the same transmission grid introduces a coupling between the various decision-making problems. First, transmission constraints involving all actors' controls must be satisfied, while, second, the satisfaction of an actor's operational objective depends, in general, not only on its own actions but on the others' too. Algorithms and/or operational procedures are, thus, developed seeking to reconcile the multiple actors' simultaneous decisions. The confidentiality and operational autonomy of the actors' decision-making procedures are preserved. In particular, two specific problems leading to such a multi-actor situation have been treated. The first is drawn from a recently emerging situation, at least in Europe, where several Transmission System Operators (TSOs) have installed and/or are planning to install Phase Shifting Transformers (PSTs) in such locations in their areas that, by properly adjusting the PST phase angle settings, they can significantly control the power flows entering and exiting their systems. A general framework is proposed for the control of PSTs owned by several TSOs, taking into account their interactions. The proposed solution is the Nash equilibrium of a sequence of optimizations performed by the various TSOs, each of them taking into account the other TSOs' control settings as well as operating constraints relative to the whole system. The method is applied to a linearized network model and illustrated on the IEEE 118-bus system. The second multi-actor situation dealt with in this work stems from the recently increasing amount of discussions and efforts made towards creating the right market structures and operational practices that would facilitate a seamless inter-area trade of electricity throughout large interconnections. In this respect, in accordance with European Union's goal of a fully functional Internal Electricity Market where ideally every consumer will be able to buy electric energy from every producer all across the interconnection, the possibility of every market participant to place its bid in whatever electricity market of an interconnection has been considered. This results in overlapping markets, each with its own schedule of power injections and withdraws, comprising buses all around the interconnection, that are cleared simultaneously by Transaction Schedulers (TSs). An iterative procedure is proposed to reconcile the various TS schedules such that congestion is managed in a fair and efficient way. The procedure converges to such schedules that the various TS market clearings are in a Nash equilibrium. The method is then extended towards several directions: enabling market participants to place their bids simultaneously in more than one TS's market, incorporating $N-1$ security constraints, allowing for joint energy-reserve dispatch, and, accounting for transmission losses. The corresponding iterative algorithms are thoroughly illustrated in detail on a 15-bus as well as the IEEE RTS-96 system.

This paper examines the possibilities for further integration of day-ahead electricity market in Central Europe. The contemporary situation is locked due to the existence of the German-Austria bidding zone. However, compliance of this bidding zone with European legislative is questionable. Therefore, the author makes a thorough legal analysis to assess the compatibility of both analysed projects for market coupling with the recent legal development in the European Union. Further, the examined projects are technically deconstructed in order to evaluate their conformity or differences between each other as well as in relation towards the EU Target Model. It is assessed, that both projects are relatively well technically compatible, however, their merger is not possible until the definite and binding decision on the issue of German-Austrian bidding zone will be found.

The aim of this work is to characterize the main determinants influencing the development of electricity prices. Beginnings are dedicated to the description of regulated elements of electricity bill and their development over the last period. The second part deals with power electricity and its development in the spot and futures market. The paper describes the emergence of energy prices on the market and the main determinants affecting the supply and demand curves, such as the price of emission allowances, increasing production from renewable energy and the price of energy raw materials. Part of the work is also analysis of the impact of market coupling on the market price of electricity daily market. The conclusion is devoted to seasonal fluctuations in electricity prices representing the time series.

Die kumulative Dissertationsschrift besteht aus zwei Teilen. Der erste Teil beleuchtet die Auswirkungen von erhöhten Mengen stromerzeugender erneuerbarer Energien auf den deutschen Strommarkt. In drei Papieren werden die Effekte von erneuerbaren Energien auf die Handelsbilanz, die Emissionsreduktionen und die Preisunsicherheit im Intraday-Markt in Deutschland mit Hilfe von Regressionsanalysen quantifiziert. Der zweite Teil adressiert die Kapazitätsberechnungen für internationalen Stromhandel im Rahmen von Flow-based Market Coupling. Diese Methodik löst sukzessive die bilateralen Handelskapazitäten ab und basiert ihre Kapazitätsbestimmung auf Netzberechnungen und einer Quantifizierung, wie sich Handel auf einzelne kritische Netzwerkelemente auswirkt. Dies ermöglicht im Durchschnitt höhere Handelskapazitäten, was zur Erreichung der deutschen und europäischen Ziele – hohe Versorgungssicherheit, bezahlbare Strompreise, bessere Integration von erneuerbaren Energien und schließlich die Dekarbonisierung der Stromsysteme – einen sehr wichtigen Beitrag leistet. In fünf Papieren werden einerseits statistische Ansätze für wichtige Prognoseparameter im Flow-based Market Coupling entwickelt, insbesondere Generation Shift Keys und die Prognose von konventionellem Kraftwerkseinsatz. Andererseits werden Optimierungsmodelle entwickelt, die den Prozess von Flow-based Market Coupling – Engpassprognose und Marktkopplung – komplett abbilden. Diese Schritte werden durch Engpassmanagement-Berechnungen ergänzt, um aktuelle Fragestellungen zu beantworten, wie z.B. die Wohlfahrtseffekte von Mindesthandelskapazitäten.:Summary Acknowledgments List of Figures Nomenclature and short definitions A Introductory background, research questions and conjunction of research articles A.1 Energy political goals and challenges of the European Union A.2 Fundamentals of electricity price formation, market coupling and congestion management A.2.1 The merit order: Formation of electricity prices in a country A.2.2 Market coupling: Enabling cross-border trade of electricity A.2.3 Congestion management: Averting the violation of physical grid constraints A.2.4 Trading capacities: Limiting cross-border exchange of electricity as a form of preventative congestion management A.2.5 Flow-based market coupling: Combining trading capacities, market coupling and congestion management A.3 Addressing the research questions A.3.1 Overview of articles as part of this cumulative dissertation A.3.2 Brief overview of used methods to address the research questions A.3.3 Relation and coherence of articles A.3.4 Main findings of articles A.3.5 Concluding remarks and further research References B Published and submitted articles B.1 Parsing the Effects of Wind and Solar Generation on the German Electricity Trade Surplus B.2 What caused 2019’s drop in German carbon emissions: Sustainable transition or short-term market developments? B.3 The effect of corrective short-term updates for wind energy forecasts on intraday electricity prices B.4 The impact of different strategies for generation shift keys (GSKs) on the flow-based market coupling domain: A model-based analysis of Central Western Europe B.5 Zone-wide prediction of generating unit-specific power outputs for electric grid congestion forecasts B.6 An Improved Statistical Approach to Generation Shift Keys: Lessons Learned from an Analysis of the Austrian Control Zone B.7 Do minimum trading capacities for the cross-zonal exchange of electricity lead to welfare losses? B.8 Toward a fundamental understanding flow-based market coupling for crossborder electricity trading

The submitted diploma thesis describes particular types of European energetic exchanges, focuses in depth on principles market in Czech Republic and studies the price development on spot and futures markets. The main idea of this work is to focus on renewable energy sources (RES) and their influence on energetic markets. At first, operational and reliability properties of RES are explained and then their development support is analyzed. Last chapters focus on how the power grid is impacted by RES that are hardly predictable source with local production characteristic. There are also outlined problems originating from irregular production that are linked to a surplus of electric energy, but also on energy shortage caused by bad weather. These problems influence international commerce and reduce the capacity of cross-border profiles.

Submitted by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2014-10-21T18:45:50Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Dominique.pdf: 2899721 bytes, checksum: e06d28c3a380d3af7d793bd8d8660b36 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2014-10-21T18:46:31Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Dominique.pdf: 2899721 bytes, checksum: e06d28c3a380d3af7d793bd8d8660b36 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-22T11:39:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Versão Final - Dominique.pdf: 2899721 bytes, checksum: e06d28c3a380d3af7d793bd8d8660b36 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-28 / The thesis analyses the European Unions’ effort to create an integrated pan-European electricity market based on “market coupling” as the proposed allocation mechanism for interconnector transfer capacity. Thus, the thesis’ main focus is if market coupling leads to a price convergence in interlinked markets and how it affects the behavior of electricity price data. The applied research methods are a qualitative, structured literature review and a quantitative analysis of electricity price data. The quantitative analysis relies on descriptive statistics of absolute price differentials and on a Cointegration analysis according to Engle & Granger (1987)’s two step approach. Main findings are that implicit auction mechanisms such as market coupling are more efficient than explicit auctions. Especially the method of price coupling leads to a price convergence in involved markets, to social welfare gains and reduces market power of producers, as shown on the example of the TLC market coupling. The market coupling initiative between Germany and Denmark, on the other hand, is evaluated as less successful and illustrates the complexity and difficulties of implementing market coupling initiatives. The cointegration analysis shows that the time series were already before the coupling date cointegrated, but the statistical significance increased. The thesis suggests that market coupling leads to a price convergence of involved markets and thus functions as method to create a single, integrated European electricity market. / A dissertação analisa o esforço dos sindicatos europeus para criar um mercado pan- europeu de electricidade integrada baseada em 'mercados combinados', como o mecanismo de alocação de capacidade de transferência de energia entre diferentes sistemas. Assim, o foco principal do estudo é se a integração do mercado leva a uma convergência de preços nos mercados interligados, e como isso afeta o comportamento dos preços de energia elétrica. Os métodos de investigação são uma revisão bibliográfica estruturada qualitativa e uma análise quantitativa de dados de preços de energia elétrica. A análise quantitativa se baseia em estatísticas descritivas das diferenças de preços absolutos e em uma análise de cointegração de acordo com a abordagem de Engle e Granger (1987). As principais conclusões são que os mecanismos de leilões implícitos, tais como a integração de mercado são mais eficientes que os leilões explícitos. Especialmente, o método de acoplamento de preços leva a uma convergência de preços nos mercados envolvidos, a ganhos de bem-estar social e reduz a o poder dos produtores no mercado, como mostra o exemplo da integração mercado TLC. A iniciativa mercados combinados entre a Alemanha ea Dinamarca, por outro lado, é avaliada como de menor sucesso e ilustra a complexidade e as dificuldades de implementação de iniciativas de integração de mercado. A análise de cointegração mostra que as séries temporais já estavam cointegradas antes da data de integração, mas a significância estatística aumentou. A tese sugere que a integração do mercado leva a uma convergência dos preços dos mercados envolvidos e, portanto, funciona como método para criar um mercado de eletricidade único e integrado na Europa.

Limit-Orderbücher sind das Standardinstrument der Preisbildung in modernen Finanzmärkten. Während Strom traditionell in Auktionen gehandelt wird, gibt es Intraday Strommärkte wie beispielsweise den SIDC-Markt, in welchem Käufer und Verkäufer über Limit-Orderbücher zusammentreffen. In dieser Arbeit werden wir stochastische Modelle von Limit-Orderbüchern auf der Grundlage der zugrundeliegenden Marktmikrostruktur entwickeln. Einen besonderen Schwerpunkt legen wir dabei auf die Berücksichtigung besonderer Merkmale der Intraday-Strommärkte, die sich zum Teil deutlich von denen der Finanzmärkte unterscheiden. Die in dieser Arbeit entwickelten Modelle beginnen mit einer realistischen und mikroskopischen Beschreibung der Marktdynamik. Große Preisänderungen über kurze Zeiträume werden ebenso berücksichtigt wie begrenzte grenzüberschreitende Aktivitäten. Diese mikroskopischen Modelle sind im Allgemeinen zu rechenintensiv für praktische Anwendungen. Das Hauptziel dieser Arbeit ist es daher, geeignete Approximationen dieser mikroskopischen Modelle durch sogenannte Skalierungsgrenzprozesse herzuleiten. Zu diesem Zweck werden sorgfältig Skalierungsannahmen formuliert und in die mikroskopischen Modelle eingebaut. Diese Annahmen ermöglichen es uns, ihr Hochfrequenzverhalten zu untersuchen, vorausgesetzt, dass die Größe eines einzelnen Auftrags gegen Null konvergiert, während die Auftragseingangsrate gegen unendlich tendiert. Die Kalibrierung mathematischer Modelle ist aus Anwendersicht eines der Hauptanliegen. Dabei ist bekannt, dass Änderungspunkte (abrupte Schwankungen) in hochfrequenten Finanzdaten vorhanden sind. Falls sie durch endogene Effekte verursacht wurden, muss bei der Schätzung solcher Änderungspunkte die Abhängigkeit von den zugrundeliegenden Daten berücksichtigt werden. Daher erweitern wir im letzten Teil dieser Arbeit die bestehende Literatur zur Erkennung von Änderungspunkten, so dass auch zufällige, von den Daten abhängige Änderungspunkte gehandhabt werden können. / Limit order books are the standard instrument for price formation in modern financial markets. While electricity has traditionally been traded through auctions, there are intraday electricity markets, such as the SIDC market, in which buyers and sellers meet via limit order books. In this thesis, stochastic models of limit order books are developed based on the underlying market microstructure. A particular focus is set on incorporating unique characteristics of intraday electricity markets, some of which are quite different from those of financial markets. The developed models in this thesis start with a realistic and microscopic description of the market dynamics. Large price changes over short time periods are considered, as well as limited cross-border activities. These microscopic models are generally computationally too intensive for practical applications. The main goal of this thesis is therefore to derive suitable approximations of these microscopic models by so-called scaling limits. For this purpose, appropriate scaling assumptions are carefully formulated and incorporated into the microscopic models which allow us to study their high-frequency behavior when the size of an individual order converges to zero while the order arrival rate tends to infinity. Calibration of mathematical models is one of the main concerns from a practitioner’s point of view. It is well known that change points (abrupt variations) are present in high-frequency financial data. If they are caused by endogenous effects, the dependence on the underlying data must be considered when estimating such change points. In the final part of this thesis, we extend the existing literature on change point detection so that random change points depending on the data can also be handled.