Ma thèse s'intitule « Contributions sur la prise de décision séquentielle basée sur des simulations dans des environnements complexes de grande dimension ». Le cadre de la thèse s'articule autour du jeu, de la planification et des processus de décision markovien. Un agent interagit avec son environnement en prenant successivement des décisions. L'agent part d'un état initial jusqu'à un état final dans lequel il ne peut plus prendre de décision. A chaque pas de temps, l'agent reçoit une observation de l'état de l'environnement. A partir de cette observation et de ses connaissances, il prend une décision qui modifie l'état de l'environnement. L'agent reçoit en conséquence une récompense et une nouvelle observation. Le but est de maximiser la somme des récompenses obtenues lors d'une simulation qui part d'un état initial jusqu'à un état final. La politique de l'agent est la fonction qui, à partir de l'historique des observations, retourne une décision. Nous travaillons dans un contexte où (i) le nombre d'états est immense, (ii) les récompenses apportent peu d'information, (iii) la probabilité d'atteindre rapidement un bon état final est faible et (iv) les connaissances a priori de l'environnement sont soit inexistantes soit difficilement exploitables. Les 2 applications présentées dans cette thèse répondent à ces contraintes : le jeu de Go et le simulateur 3D du projet européen MASH (Massive Sets of Heuristics). Afin de prendre une décision satisfaisante dans ce contexte, plusieurs solutions sont apportées :1. simuler en utilisant le compromis exploration/exploitation (MCTS)2. réduire la complexité du problème par des recherches locales (GoldenEye)3. construire une politique qui s'auto-améliore (RBGP)4. apprendre des connaissances a priori (CluVo+GMCTS) L'algorithme Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) est un algorithme qui a révolutionné le jeu de Go. A partir d'un modèle de l'environnement, MCTS construit itérativement un arbre des possibles de façon asymétrique en faisant des simulations de Monte-Carlo et dont le point de départ est l'observation courante de l'agent. L'agent alterne entre l'exploration du modèle en prenant de nouvelles décisions et l'exploitation des décisions qui obtiennent statistiquement une bonne récompense cumulée. Nous discutons de 2 moyens pour améliorer MCTS : la parallélisation et l'ajout de connaissances a priori. La parallélisation ne résout pas certaines faiblesses de MCTS ; notamment certains problèmes locaux restent des verrous. Nous proposons un algorithme (GoldenEye) qui se découpe en 2 parties : détection d'un problème local et ensuite sa résolution. L'algorithme de résolution réutilise des principes de MCTS et fait ses preuves sur une base classique de problèmes difficiles. L'ajout de connaissances à la main est laborieuse et ennuyeuse. Nous proposons une méthode appelée Racing-based Genetic Programming (RBGP) pour ajouter automatiquement de la connaissance. Le point fort de cet algorithme est qu'il valide rigoureusement l'ajout d'une connaissance a priori et il peut être utilisé non pas pour optimiser un algorithme mais pour construire une politique. Dans certaines applications telles que MASH, les simulations sont coûteuses en temps et il n'y a ni connaissance a priori ni modèle de l'environnement; l'algorithme Monte-Carlo Tree Search est donc inapplicable. Pour rendre MCTS applicable dans MASH, nous proposons une méthode pour apprendre des connaissances a priori (CluVo). Nous utilisons ensuite ces connaissances pour améliorer la rapidité de l'apprentissage de l'agent et aussi pour construire un modèle. A partir de ce modèle, nous utilisons une version adaptée de Monte-Carlo Tree Search (GMCTS). Cette méthode résout de difficiles problématiques MASH et donne de bons résultats dans une application dont le but est d'améliorer un tirage de lettres. / My thesis is entitled "Contributions to Simulation-based High-dimensional Sequential Decision Making". The context of the thesis is about games, planning and Markov Decision Processes. An agent interacts with its environment by successively making decisions. The agent starts from an initial state until a final state in which the agent can not make decision anymore. At each timestep, the agent receives an observation of the state of the environment. From this observation and its knowledge, the agent makes a decision which modifies the state of the environment. Then, the agent receives a reward and a new observation. The goal is to maximize the sum of rewards obtained during a simulation from an initial state to a final state. The policy of the agent is the function which, from the history of observations, returns a decision. We work in a context where (i) the number of states is huge, (ii) reward carries little information, (iii) the probability to reach quickly a good final state is weak and (iv) prior knowledge is either nonexistent or hardly exploitable. Both applications described in this thesis present these constraints : the game of Go and a 3D simulator of the european project MASH (Massive Sets of Heuristics). In order to take a satisfying decision in this context, several solutions are brought : 1. Simulating with the compromise exploration/exploitation (MCTS) 2. Reducing the complexity by local solving (GoldenEye) 3. Building a policy which improves itself (RBGP) 4. Learning prior knowledge (CluVo+GMCTS) Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is the state of the art for the game of Go. From a model of the environment, MCTS builds incrementally and asymetrically a tree of possible futures by performing Monte-Carlo simulations. The tree starts from the current observation of the agent. The agent switches between the exploration of the model and the exploitation of decisions which statistically give a good cumulative reward. We discuss 2 ways for improving MCTS : the parallelization and the addition of prior knowledge. The parallelization does not solve some weaknesses of MCTS; in particular some local problems remain challenges. We propose an algorithm (GoldenEye) which is composed of 2 parts : detection of a local problem and then its resolution. The algorithm of resolution reuses some concepts of MCTS and it solves difficult problems of a classical database. The addition of prior knowledge by hand is laborious and boring. We propose a method called Racing-based Genetic Programming (RBGP) in order to add automatically prior knowledge. The strong point is that RBGP rigorously validates the addition of a prior knowledge and RBGP can be used for building a policy (instead of only optimizing an algorithm). In some applications such as MASH, simulations are too expensive in time and there is no prior knowledge and no model of the environment; therefore Monte-Carlo Tree Search can not be used. So that MCTS becomes usable in this context, we propose a method for learning prior knowledge (CluVo). Then we use pieces of prior knowledge for improving the rapidity of learning of the agent and for building a model, too. We use from this model an adapted version of Monte-Carlo Tree Search (GMCTS). This method solves difficult problems of MASH and gives good results in an application to a word game.

Nous analysons un type W de système de l’Assemble-à-commande avec des délais de livraison aléatoires, l'arrivée aléatoire de la demande et des ventes perdues, en temps continu. Nous formulons le problème en tant que processus de décision Markov à l'horizon infini. Nous nous éloignons de l'approche standard en caractérisant une région de l'espace d'état où toutes les propriétés de la fonction de coût tiennent. Nous caractérisons la politique optimale dans cette région. En particulier, nous montrons que, dans l'intérieur de la région récurrente, les composants sont toujours produits. Nous caractérisons également la politique d'allocation de composants optimale qui spécifie si une demande de produit arrivant devrait être remplie. Notre analyse révèle que la politique d'allocation optimale est contre-intuitive. Par exemple, même lorsqu'un produit domine l'autre, en termes de coût/taux de vente perdue, sa demande peut ne pas avoir une priorité absolue par rapport à la demande de l'autre produit. Une telle caractéristique n'a pas été observée dans de nombreux paramètres intégrés de production/inventaire où l'allocation d'inventaire suit une priorité fixe pour satisfaire les exigences. Nous montrons également que la structure de la politique optimale reste la même pour les systèmes à production par lots, les temps de production répartis par Erlang et la demande de produits non unitaire. Enfin, nous proposons des heuristiques efficaces qui peuvent être utilisées comme substitut à la politique optimale ou peuvent être utilisées comme une politique de départ pour les algorithmes communs utilisés pour obtenir une politique optimale dans le but de réduire leur temps de calcul. / We analyze a W-configuration assemble-to-order system with random lead times, random arrival of demand, and lost sales, in continuous time. We formulate the problem as an infinite-horizon Markov decision process. We deviate from the standard approach by first characterizing a region (the recurrent region) of the state space where all properties of the cost function hold. We then characterize the optimal policy within this region. In particular, we show that within the interior of the recurrent region components are always produced. We also characterize the optimal component allocation policy which specifies whether an arriving product demand should be fulfilled. Our analysis reveals that the optimal allocation policy is counter-intuitive. For instance, even when one product dominates the other, in terms of lost sale cost and lost sale cost rate (i.e., demand rate times the lost sale cost), its demand may not have absolute priority over the other product’s demand. Such a feature has not been observed in many integrated production/inventory settings where inventory allocation follows a fixed priority in satisfying demands. We also show that the structure of the optimal policy remains the same for systems with batch production, Erlang distributed production times, and non-unitary product demand. Finally, we propose efficient heuristics that can be either used as a substitute for the optimal policy or can be used as a starting policy for the common algorithms that are used to obtain the optimal policy in an effort to reduce their computational time

La régulation adaptative des feux de signalisation est un problème très important. Beaucoup de chercheurs travaillent continuellement afin de résoudre les problémes liés à l’embouteillage dans les intersections urbaines. Il devient par conséquent très utile d’employer des algorithmes intelligents afin d’améliorer les performances de régulation et la qualité du service. Dans cette thèse, nous essayons d'étudier ce problème d’une part à travers une modèlisation microscopique et dynamique en temps discret, et d’autre part en explorant plusieurs approches de résoltion pour une intersection isolée ainsi que pour un réseau distribué d'intersections.La première partie se concentre sur la modélisation dynamique des problèmes des feux de signalisation ainsi que de la charge du réseau d’intersections. Le mode de la “séquence de phase adaptative” (APS) dans un plan de feux est d'abord considéré. Quant à la modélisation du contrôle des feux aux intersections, elle est formulée grâce à un processus décisionnel de markov (MDP). En particulier, la notion de “l'état du système accordable” est alors proposée pour la coordination du réseau de trafic. En outre, un nouveau modèle de “véhicule-suiveur” est proposé pour l'environnement de trafic. En se basant sur la modélisation proposée, les méthodes de contrôle des feux dans cette thèse comportent des algorithmes optimaux et quasi-optimaux. Deux algorithmes exacts de résolution basées sur la programmation dynamique (DP) sont alors étudiés et les résultats montrent certaines limites de cette solution DP surtout dans quelques cas complexes où l'espace d'états est assez important. En raison de l’importance du temps d’execution de l'algorithme DP et du manque d'information du modèle (notamment l’information exacte relative à l’arrivée des véhicules à l’intersection), nous avons opté pour un algorithme de programmation dynamique approximative (ADP). Enfin, un algorithme quasi-optimal utilisant l'ADP combinée à la méthode d’amélioration RLS-TD (λ) est choisi. Dans les simulations, en particulier avec l'intégration du mode de phase APS, l'algorithme proposé montre de bons résultats notamment en terme de performance et d'efficacité de calcul. / Adaptive traffic signal control is a decision making optimization problem. People address this crucial problem constantly in order to solve the traffic congestion at urban intersections. It is very popular to use intelligent algorithms to improve control performances, such as traffic delay. In the thesis, we try to study this problem comprehensively with a microscopic and dynamic model in discrete-time, and investigate the related algorithms both for isolated intersection and distributed network control. At first, we focus on dynamic modeling for adaptive traffic signal control and network loading problems. The proposed adaptive phase sequence (APS) mode is highlighted as one of the signal phase control mechanisms. As for the modeling of signal control at intersections, problems are fundamentally formulated by Markov decision process (MDP), especially the concept of tunable system state is proposed for the traffic network coordination. Moreover, a new vehicle-following model supports for the network loading environment.Based on the model, signal control methods in the thesis are studied by optimal and near-optimal algorithms in turn. Two exact DP algorithms are investigated and results show some limitations of DP solution when large state space appears in complex cases. Because of the computational burden and unknown model information in dynamic programming (DP), it is suggested to use an approximate dynamic programming (ADP). Finally, the online near-optimal algorithm using ADP with RLS-TD(λ) is confirmed. In simulation experiments, especially with the integration of APS, the proposed algorithm indicates a great advantage in performance measures and computation efficiency.

Many real-world systems experience deterioration with usage and age, which often leads to low product quality, high production cost, and low system availability. Most previous maintenance and reliability models in the literature do not incorporate condition monitoring information for decision making, which often results in poor failure prediction for partially observable deteriorating systems. For that reason, the development of fault prediction and control scheme using condition-based maintenance techniques has received considerable attention in recent years. This research presents a new framework for predicting failures of a partially observable deteriorating system using Bayesian control techniques. A time series model is fitted to a vector observation process representing partial information about the system state. Residuals are then calculated using the fitted model, which are indicative of system deterioration. The deterioration process is modeled as a 3-state continuous-time homogeneous Markov process. States 0 and 1 are not observable, representing healthy (good) and unhealthy (warning) system operational conditions, respectively. Only the failure state 2 is assumed to be observable. Preventive maintenance can be carried out at any sampling epoch, and corrective maintenance is carried out upon system failure. The form of the optimal control policy that maximizes the long-run expected average availability per unit time has been investigated. It has been proved that a control limit policy is optimal for decision making. The model parameters have been estimated using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The optimal Bayesian fault prediction and control scheme, considering long-run average availability maximization along with a practical statistical constraint, has been proposed and compared with the age-based replacement policy. The optimal control limit and sampling interval are calculated in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. Another Bayesian fault prediction and control scheme has been developed based on the average run length (ARL) criterion. Comparisons with traditional control charts are provided. Formulae for the mean residual life and the distribution function of system residual life have been derived in explicit forms as functions of a posterior probability statistic. The advantage of the Bayesian model over the well-known 2-parameter Weibull model in system residual life prediction is shown. The methodologies are illustrated using simulated data, real data obtained from the spectrometric analysis of oil samples collected from transmission units of heavy hauler trucks in the mining industry, and vibration data from a planetary gearbox machinery application.

Many real-world systems experience deterioration with usage and age, which often leads to low product quality, high production cost, and low system availability. Most previous maintenance and reliability models in the literature do not incorporate condition monitoring information for decision making, which often results in poor failure prediction for partially observable deteriorating systems. For that reason, the development of fault prediction and control scheme using condition-based maintenance techniques has received considerable attention in recent years. This research presents a new framework for predicting failures of a partially observable deteriorating system using Bayesian control techniques. A time series model is fitted to a vector observation process representing partial information about the system state. Residuals are then calculated using the fitted model, which are indicative of system deterioration. The deterioration process is modeled as a 3-state continuous-time homogeneous Markov process. States 0 and 1 are not observable, representing healthy (good) and unhealthy (warning) system operational conditions, respectively. Only the failure state 2 is assumed to be observable. Preventive maintenance can be carried out at any sampling epoch, and corrective maintenance is carried out upon system failure. The form of the optimal control policy that maximizes the long-run expected average availability per unit time has been investigated. It has been proved that a control limit policy is optimal for decision making. The model parameters have been estimated using the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm. The optimal Bayesian fault prediction and control scheme, considering long-run average availability maximization along with a practical statistical constraint, has been proposed and compared with the age-based replacement policy. The optimal control limit and sampling interval are calculated in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework. Another Bayesian fault prediction and control scheme has been developed based on the average run length (ARL) criterion. Comparisons with traditional control charts are provided. Formulae for the mean residual life and the distribution function of system residual life have been derived in explicit forms as functions of a posterior probability statistic. The advantage of the Bayesian model over the well-known 2-parameter Weibull model in system residual life prediction is shown. The methodologies are illustrated using simulated data, real data obtained from the spectrometric analysis of oil samples collected from transmission units of heavy hauler trucks in the mining industry, and vibration data from a planetary gearbox machinery application.

The motion planning problem can be formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP), if the uncertainties in the robot motion and environments can be modeled probabilistically. The complexity of solving these MDPs grow exponentially as the dimension of the problem increases and hence, it is nearly impossible to solve the problem even without constraints. Using hierarchical methods, these MDPs can be transformed into a semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) which only needs to be solved at certain landmark states. In the deterministic robotics motion planning community, sampling based algorithms like probabilistic roadmaps (PRM) and rapidly exploring random trees (RRTs) have been successful in solving very high dimensional deterministic problem. However they are not robust to system with uncertainties in the system dynamics and hence, one of the primary objective of this work is to generalize PRM/RRT to solve motion planning with uncertainty. We first present generalizations of randomized sampling based algorithms PRM and RRT, to incorporate the process uncertainty, and obstacle location uncertainty, termed as "generalized PRM" (GPRM) and "generalized RRT" (GRRT). The controllers used at the lower level of these planners are feedback controllers which ensure convergence of trajectories while mitigating the effects of process uncertainty. The results indicate that the algorithms solve the motion planning problem for a single agent in continuous state/control spaces in the presence of process uncertainty, and constraints such as obstacles and other state/input constraints. Secondly, a novel adaptive sampling technique, termed as "adaptive GPRM" (AGPRM), is proposed for these generalized planners to increase the efficiency and overall success probability of these planners. It was implemented on high-dimensional robot n-link manipulators, with up to 8 links, i.e. in a 16-dimensional state-space. The results demonstrate the ability of the proposed algorithm to handle the motion planning problem for highly non-linear systems in very high-dimensional state space. Finally, a solution methodology, termed the "multi-agent AGPRM" (MAGPRM), is proposed to solve the multi-agent motion planning problem under uncertainty. The technique uses a existing solution technique to the multiple traveling salesman problem (MTSP) in conjunction with GPRM. For real-time implementation, an ?inter-agent collision detection and avoidance? module was designed which ensures that no two agents collide at any time-step. Algorithm was tested on teams of homogeneous and heterogeneous agents in cluttered obstacle space and the algorithm demonstrate the ability to handle such problems in continuous state/control spaces in presence of process uncertainty.

Les travaux de cette thèse visent à mettre en place une gestion prédictive sous incertitudes de la ressource en eau pour les réseaux de voies navigables. L'objectif est de proposer un plan de gestion de l'eau pour optimiser les conditions de navigation de l'ensemble du réseau supervisé sur un horizon spécifié. La solution attendue doit rendre le réseau résilient aux effets probables du changement climatique et aux évolutions du trafic fluvial. Dans un premier temps, une modélisation générique d'une ressource distribuée sur un réseau est proposée. Celle-ci, basée sur les processus décisionnels markoviens, prend en compte les nombreuses incertitudes affectant les réseaux considérés. L'objectif de cette modélisation est de couvrir l'ensemble des cas possibles, prévus ou non, afin d'avoir une gestion résiliente de ces réseaux. La seconde contribution consiste en une distribution du modèle sur plusieurs agents afin de permettre son passage à l'échelle. Ceci consiste en une répartition des capacités de contrôle du réseau entre les agents. Chaque agent ne possède ainsi qu'une connaissance locale du réseau supervisé. De ce fait, les agents ont besoin de se cordonner pour proposer une gestion efficace du réseau. Une résolution itérative avec échanges de plans temporaires de chaque agent est utilisée pour l'obtention de politiques de gestion locales à chaque agent. Finalement, des expérimentations ont été réalisées sur des réseaux réels de voies navigables françaises pour observer la qualité des solutions produites. Plusieurs scénarios climatiques différents ont été simulés pour tester la résilience des politiques produites. / The work of this thesis aims to introduce and implement a predictive management under uncertainties of the water resource for inland waterway networks. The objective is to provide a water management plan to optimize the navigation conditions of the entire supervised network over a specified horizon. The expected solution must render the network resilient to probable effects of the climate change and changes in waterway traffic. Firstly, a generic modeling of a resource distributed on a network is proposed. This modeling, based on Markovian Decision Processes, takes into account the numerous uncertainties affecting considered networks. The objective of this modeling is to cover all possible cases, foreseen or not, in order to have a resilient management of those networks. The second contribution consists in a distribution of the model over several agents to facilitate the scaling. This consists of a repartition of the network's control capacities among the agents. Thus, each agent has only local knowledge of the supervised network. As a result, agents require coordination to provide an efficient management of the network. An iterative resolution, with exchanges of temporary plans from each agent, is used to obtain local management policies for each agent. Finally, experiments were carried out on realistic and real networks of the French waterways to observe the quality of the solutions produced. Several different climatic scenarios have been simulated to test the resilience of the produced policies.

Optimization is a very important field with diverse applications in physical, social and biological sciences and in various areas of engineering. It appears widely in ma-chine learning, information retrieval, regression, estimation, operations research and a wide variety of computing domains. The subject is being deeply studied both theoretically and experimentally and several algorithms are available in the literature. These algorithms which can be executed (sequentially or concurrently) on a computing machine explore the space of input parameters to seek high quality solutions to the optimization problem with the search mostly guided by certain structural properties of the objective function. In certain situations, the setting might additionally demand for “absolute optimum” or solutions close to it, which makes the task even more challenging. In this thesis, we propose an optimization algorithm which is “gradient-free”, i.e., does not employ any knowledge of the gradient or higher order derivatives of the objective function, rather utilizes objective function values themselves to steer the search. The proposed algorithm is particularly effective in a black-box setting, where a closed-form expression of the objective function is unavailable and gradient or higher-order derivatives are hard to compute or estimate. Our algorithm is inspired by the well known cross entropy (CE) method. The CE method is a model based search method to solve continuous/discrete multi-extremal optimization problems, where the objective function has minimal structure. The proposed method seeks, in the statistical manifold of the parameters which identify the probability distribution/model defined over the input space to find the degenerate distribution concentrated on the global optima (assumed to be finite in quantity). In the early part of the thesis, we propose a novel stochastic approximation version of the CE method to the unconstrained optimization problem, where the objective function is real-valued and deterministic. The basis of the algorithm is a stochastic process of model parameters which is probabilistically dependent on the past history, where we reuse all the previous samples obtained in the process till the current instant based on discounted averaging. This approach can save the overall computational and storage cost. Our algorithm is incremental in nature and possesses attractive features such as stability, computational and storage efficiency and better accuracy. We further investigate, both theoretically and empirically, the asymptotic behaviour of the algorithm and find that the proposed algorithm exhibits global optimum convergence for a particular class of objective functions. Further, we extend the algorithm to solve the simulation/stochastic optimization problem. In stochastic optimization, the objective function possesses a stochastic characteristic, where the underlying probability distribution in most cases is hard to comprehend and quantify. This begets a more challenging optimization problem, where the ostentatious nature is primarily due to the hardness in computing the objective function values for various input parameters with absolute certainty. In this case, one can only hope to obtain noise corrupted objective function values for various input parameters. Settings of this kind can be found in scenarios where the objective function is evaluated using a continuously evolving dynamical system or through a simulation. We propose a multi-timescale stochastic approximation algorithm, where we integrate an additional timescale to accommodate the noisy measurements and decimate the effects of the gratuitous noise asymptotically. We found that if the objective function and the noise involved in the measurements are well behaved and the timescales are compatible, then our algorithm can generate high quality solutions. In the later part of the thesis, we propose algorithms for reinforcement learning/Markov decision processes using the optimization techniques we developed in the early stage. MDP can be considered as a generalized framework for modelling planning under uncertainty. We provide a novel algorithm for the problem of prediction in reinforcement learning, i.e., estimating the value function of a given stationary policy of a model free MDP (with large state and action spaces) using the linear function approximation architecture. Here, the value function is defined as the long-run average of the discounted transition costs. The resource requirement of the proposed method in terms of computational and storage cost scales quadratically in the size of the feature set. The algorithm is an adaptation of the multi-timescale variant of the CE method proposed in the earlier part of the thesis for simulation optimization. We also provide both theoretical and empirical evidence to corroborate the credibility and effectiveness of the approach. In the final part of the thesis, we consider a modified version of the control problem in a model free MDP with large state and action spaces. The control problem most commonly addressed in the literature is to find an optimal policy which maximizes the value function, i.e., the long-run average of the discounted transition payoffs. The contemporary methods also presume access to a generative model/simulator of the MDP with the hidden premise that observations of the system behaviour in the form of sample trajectories can be obtained with ease from the model. In this thesis, we consider a modified version, where the cost function to be optimized is a real-valued performance function (possibly non-convex) of the value function. Additionally, one has to seek the optimal policy without presuming access to the generative model. In this thesis, we propose a stochastic approximation algorithm for this peculiar control problem. The only information, we presuppose, available to the algorithm is the sample trajectory generated using a priori chosen behaviour policy. The algorithm is data (sample trajectory) efficient, stable, robust as well as computationally and storage efficient. We provide a proof of convergence of our algorithm to a high performing policy relative to the behaviour policy.

Pour faire face à la croissance rapide du trafic mobile, différentes technologies d'accès radio (par exemple, HSPA, LTE, WiFi, et WiMAX) sont intégrées et gérées conjointement. Dans ce contexte, la sélection de TAR est une fonction clé pour améliorer les performances du réseau et l'expérience de l'utilisateur. Elle consiste à décider quelle TAR est la plus appropriée aux mobiles. Quand l'intelligence est poussée à la périphérie du réseau, les mobiles décident de manière autonome de leur meilleur TAR. Ils cherchent à maximiser égoïstement leur utilité. Toutefois, puisque les mobiles ne disposent d'aucune information sur les conditions de charge du réseau, leurs décisions peuvent conduire à une inefficacité de la performance. En outre, déléguer les décisions au réseau optimise la performance globale, mais au prix d'une augmentation de la complexité du réseau, des charges de signalisation et de traitement. Dans cette thèse, au lieu de favoriser une de ces deux approches décisionnelles, nous proposons un cadre de décision hybride: le réseau fournit des informations pour les mobiles pour mieux décider de leur TAR. Plus précisément, les utilisateurs mobiles choisissent leur TAR en fonction de leurs besoins et préférences individuelles, ainsi que des paramètres de coût monétaire et de QoS signalés par le réseau. En ajustant convenablement les informations du réseau, les décisions des utilisateurs répondent globalement aux objectifs de l'opérateur. Nous introduisons d'abord notre cadre de décision hybride. Afin de maximiser l'expérience de l'utilisateur, nous présentons une méthode de décision multicritère (MDMC) basée sur la satisfaction. Outre leurs conditions radio, les utilisateurs mobiles tiennent compte des paramètres de coût et de QoS, signalées par le réseau, pour évaluer les TAR disponibles. En comparaison avec les solutions existantes, notre algorithme répond aux besoins de l'utilisateur (par exemple, les demandes en débit, la tolérance de coût, la classe de trafic), et évite les décisions inadéquates. Une attention particulière est ensuite portée au réseau pour s'assurer qu'il diffuse des informations décisionnelles appropriées, afin de mieux exploiter ses ressources radio alors que les mobiles maximisent leur propre utilité. Nous présentons deux méthodes heuristiques pour dériver dynamiquement quoi signaler aux mobiles. Puisque les paramètres de QoS sont modulées en fonction des conditions de charge, l'exploitation des ressources radio s'est avérée efficace. Aussi, nous nous concentrons sur l'optimisation de l'information du réseau. La dérivation des paramètres de QoS est formulée comme un processus de décision semi-markovien, et les stratégies optimales sont calculées en utilisant l'algorithme de Policy Iteration. En outre, et puisque les paramètres du réseau ne peuvent pas être facilement obtenues, une approche par apprentissage par renforcement est introduite pour dériver quoi signaler aux mobiles. / To cope with the rapid growth of mobile broadband traffic, various radio access technologies (e.g., HSPA, LTE, WiFi, and WiMAX) are being integrated and jointly managed. Radio Access Technology (RAT) selection, devoted to decide to what RAT mobiles should connect, is a key functionality to improve network performance and user experience. When intelligence is pushed to the network edge, mobiles make autonomous decisions regarding selection of their most appropriate RAT. They aim to selfishly maximize their utility. However, because mobiles have no information on network load conditions, their decisions may lead to performance inefficiency. Moreover, delegating decisions to the network optimizes overall performance, but at the cost of increased network complexity, signaling, and processing load. In this thesis, instead of favoring either of these decision-making approaches, we propose a hybrid decision framework: the network provides information for the mobiles to make robust RAT selections. More precisely, mobile users select their RAT depending on their individual needs and preferences, as well as on the monetary cost and QoS parameters signaled by the network. By appropriately tuning network information, user decisions are globally expected to meet operator objectives, avoiding undesirable network states. We first introduce our hybrid decision framework. Decision makings, on the network and user sides, are investigated. To maximize user experience, we present a satisfaction-based Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM) method. In addition to their radio conditions, mobile users consider the cost and QoS parameters, signaled by the network, to evaluate serving RATs. In comparison with existing MCDM solutions, our algorithm meets user needs (e.g., traffic class, throughput demand, cost tolerance), avoiding inadequate decisions. A particular attention is then addressed to the network to make sure it broadcasts suitable decisional information, so as to better exploit its radio resources while mobiles maximize their own utility. We present two heuristic methods to dynamically derive what to signal to mobiles. While QoS parameters are modulated as a function of the load conditions, radio resources are shown to be efficiently exploited. Moreover, we focus on optimizing network information. Deriving QoS parameters is formulated as a semi-Markov decision process, and optimal policies are computed using the Policy Iteration algorithm. Also, and since network parameters may not be easily obtained, a reinforcement learning approach is introduced to derive what to signal to mobiles. The performances of optimal, learning-based, and heuristic policies are analyzed. When thresholds are pertinently set, our heuristic method provides performance very close to the optimal solution. Moreover, although lower performances are observed, our learning-based algorithm has the crucial advantage of requiring no prior parameterization.

<p>Forest management involves numerous stochastic elements. To sustainably manage forest resources, it is crucial to acknowledge these sources as uncertainty or risk, and incorporate them in adaptive decision-making. Here, I developed several stochastic programming models in the form of passive or active adaptive management for natural mixed-species hardwood forests in Indiana. I demonstrated how to use these tools to deal with time-invariant and time-variant natural disturbances in optimal planning of harvests.</p> <p> Markov decision process (MDP) models were first constructed based upon stochastic simulations of an empirical forest growth model for the forest type of interest. Then, they were optimized to seek the optimal or near-optimal harvesting decisions while considering risk and uncertainty in natural disturbances. In particular, a classic expected-criterion infinite-horizon MDP model was first used as a passive adaptive management tool to determine the optimal action for a specific forest state when the probabilities of forest transition remained constant over time. Next, a two-stage non-stationary MDP model combined with a rolling-horizon heuristic was developed, which allowed information update and then adjustments of decisions accordingly. It was used to determine active adaptive harvesting decisions for a three-decade planning horizon during which natural disturbance probabilities may be altered by climate change.</p> <p> The empirical results can be used to make some useful quantitative management recommendations, and shed light on the impacts of decision-making on the forests and timber yield when some stochastic elements in forest management changed. In general, the increase in the likelihood of damages by natural disturbance to forests would cause more aggressive decisions if timber production was the management objective. When windthrow did not pose a threat to mixed hardwood forests, the average optimal yield of sawtimber was estimated to be 1,376 ft³/ac/acre, while the residual basal area was 88 ft²/ac. Assuming a 10 percent per decade probability of windthrow that would reduce the stand basal area considerably, the optimal sawtimber yield per decade would decline by 17%, but the residual basal area would be lowered only by 5%. Assuming that the frequency of windthrow increased in the magnitude of 5% every decade under climate change, the average sawtimber yield would be reduced by 31%, with an average residual basal area slightly around 76 ft²/ac. For validation purpose, I compared the total sawtimber yield in three decades obtained from the heuristic approach to that of a three-decade MDP model making <i>ex post</i> decisions. The heuristic approach was proved to provide a satisfactory result which was only about 18% lower than the actual optimum.</p> These findings highlight the need for landowners, both private and public, to monitor forests frequently and use flexible planning approaches in order to anticipate for climate change impacts. They also suggest that climate change may considerably lower sawtimber yield, causing a concerning decline in the timber supply in Indiana. Future improvements of the approaches used here are recommended, including addressing the changing stumpage market condition and developing a more flexible rolling-horizon heuristic approach.