Esta tese analisa a relação entre o planejamento metropolitano e as abordagens compreensivas do licenciamento ambiental, especialmente na avaliação de planos e projetos de infra-estrutura regional na metrópole de São Paulo, a partir dos anos 1990. A evolução política e econômica da metrópole é visualizada através desses planos e projetos de infra-estrutura, cuja dimensão regional variou conforme o contexto histórico considerado: do final do século XIX até os anos 1930, está relacionada ao modelo agrárioexportador; dos anos 1930 aos anos 1970, ao processo de industrialização e integração de mercados nacionais; dos anos 1970 aos anos 1990, ao processo de desconcentração industrial e de consolidação da macrometrópole; e, a partir dos anos 1990, à globalização e seus reflexos na metrópole, num contexto de consolidação do Sistema de Meio Ambiente. A partir dos anos 1990, planos e projetos de infra-estrutura regional são obrigatoriamente submetidos ao licenciamento ambiental, que passa a influenciá-los. Com a desmobilização dos sistemas formais de planejamento metropolitano, a partir dos anos 1980, o processo de licenciamento ambiental passou a desempenhar essa função. No entanto, tal processo, em São Paulo, é bastante complexo, pois deve considerar, além do impacto local do empreendimento, os interesses regionais relacionados a estes projetos e obras estruturantes, dada a rede de influência e a importância da metrópole paulista no contexto econômico do Estado e do país. Neste sentido, parece-nos necessário restabelecer um sistema de planejamento metropolitano efetivo em novas bases, com legitimidade, compromisso e governança. / This thesis analyses the relationship between metropolitan planning and comprehensives approaches of the environmental licensing process in Sao Paulo metropolis, since 1990s. The metropolis political and economic evolution are seen through these infrastrucuture plans and projects, whose regional dimension has varied according to the historical context: from the end of 19th century to the 1930s, it is related to the export driven agribusiness economy; from the 1930s to the 1970s it is related to the Brazilian industrialization and the national market integration process; from the 1970s to the 1990s it is related to the dispersion of industries over the territory and the consolidation of a macro-region centered in Sao Paulo; and, since the 1990s, it is related to the globalization and its impacts on Sao Paulo metropolis, in a context of consolidation of its environmental planning system. Since then, the environmental licensing process is an indispensable part of any regional infrastructure planning or project and may have a great impact on its future development. From the 1980s, with the demise of the formal metropolitan plannning system, the environment licensing process had to care for its function. However, this process in the São Paulo metropolis is quite complex, because it has to evaluate not only the local impact of an infrastructure project but also its regional interests, due to the net of influences exerted by the metropolis on the State and the country economy. Therefore, it looks necessary to re-establish an effective metropolitan planning system on a new basis, in order to guarantee its legitimacy, commitment and governance.

This study consists of the sensitivity analysis for two previously developed tumor growth models: Gompertz model and quotient model. The two models are considered in both continuous and discrete time. In continuous time, model parameters are estimated using least-square method, while in discrete time, the partial-sum method is used. Moreover, frequentist and Bayesian methods are used to construct confidence intervals and credible intervals for the model parameters. We apply the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques with the Random Walk Metropolis algorithm with Non-informative Prior and the Delayed Rejection Adoptive Metropolis (DRAM) algorithm to construct parameters' posterior distributions and then obtain credible intervals.

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Existing methods to utilize capacity-heterogeneity in a P2P system either rely on constructing special overlays with capacity-proportional node degree or use topology adaptation to match a node's capacity with that of its neighbors. In existing P2P networks, which are often characterized by diverse node capacities and high churn, these methods may require large node degree or continuous topology adaptation, potentially making them infeasible due to their high overhead. In this thesis, we propose an unstructured P2P system that attempts to address these issues. We first prove that the overall throughput of search queries in a heterogeneous network is maximized if and only if traffic load through each node is proportional to its capacity. Our proposed system achieves this traffic distribution by biasing search walks using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, without requiring any special underlying topology. We then define two saturation metrics for measuring the performance of overlay networks: one for quantifying their ability to support random walks and the second for measuring their potential to handle the overhead caused by churn. Using simulations, we finally compare our proposed method with Gia, an existing system which uses topology adaptation, and find that the former performs better under all studied conditions, both saturation metrics, and such end-to-end parameters as query success rate, latency, and query-hits for various file replication schemes.

Recent developments in instrumentation, communication and software have enabled the integration of real-time data into the decision-making process of hydrocarbon production. Applications of real-time data integration in drilling operations and horizontal-well lateral placement are becoming industry common practice. In reservoir management, the use of real-time data has been shown to be advantageous in tasks such as improving smart-well performance and in pressure-maintenance programs. Such capabilities allow for a paradigm change in which reservoir management can be looked at as a strategy that enables a semi-continuous process of model updates and decision optimizations instead of being periodic or reactive. This is referred to as closed-loop reservoir management (CLRM). Due to the complexity of the dynamic physical processes, large sizes, and huge uncertainties associated with reservoir description, continuous model updating is a large-scale problem with a highly dimensional parameter space and high computational costs. The need for an algorithm that is both feasible for practical applications and capable of generating reliable estimates of reservoir uncertainty is a key element in CLRM. This thesis investigates the validity of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling used in a Bayesian framework as an uncertainty quantification and model-updating tool suitable for real-time applications. A 3-phase, dual-porosity, dual-permeability reservoir model is used in a synthetic experiment. Continuous probability density functions of cumulative oil production for two cases with different model updating frequencies and reservoir maturity levels are generated and compared to a case with a known geology, i.e., truth case. Results show continuously narrowing ranges for cumulative oil production, with mean values approaching the truth case as model updating advances and the reservoir becomes more mature. To deal with MCMC sampling sensitivity to increasing numbers of observed measurements, as in the case of real-time applications, a new formulation of the likelihood function is proposed. Changing the likelihood function significantly improved chain convergence, chain mixing and forecast uncertainty quantification. Further, methods to validate the sampling quality and to judge the prior model for the MCMC process in real applications are advised.

Les méthodes de Monte Carlo par chaîne de Markov (MCMC) sont des outils très populaires pour l’échantillonnage de lois de probabilité complexes et/ou en grandes dimensions. Étant donné leur facilité d’application, ces méthodes sont largement répandues dans plusieurs communautés scientifiques et bien certainement en statistique, particulièrement en analyse bayésienne. Depuis l’apparition de la première méthode MCMC en 1953, le nombre de ces algorithmes a considérablement augmenté et ce sujet continue d’être une aire de recherche active. Un nouvel algorithme MCMC avec ajustement directionnel a été récemment développé par Bédard et al. (IJSS, 9 :2008) et certaines de ses propriétés restent partiellement méconnues. L’objectif de ce mémoire est de tenter d’établir l’impact d’un paramètre clé de cette méthode sur la performance globale de l’approche. Un second objectif est de comparer cet algorithme à d’autres méthodes MCMC plus versatiles afin de juger de sa performance de façon relative. / Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) have become popular tools for sampling from complex and/or high dimensional probability distributions. Given their relative ease of implementation, these methods are frequently used in various scientific areas, particularly in Statistics and Bayesian analysis. The volume of such methods has risen considerably since the first MCMC algorithm described in 1953 and this area of research remains extremely active. A new MCMC algorithm using a directional adjustment has recently been described by Bédard et al. (IJSS, 9:2008) and some of its properties remain unknown. The objective of this thesis is to attempt determining the impact of a key parameter on the global performance of the algorithm. Moreover, another aim is to compare this new method to existing MCMC algorithms in order to evaluate its performance in a relative fashion.

Η παρούσα διπλωματική διατριβή εντάσσεται ερευνητικά στην περιοχή της Υπολογιστικής Στατιστικής, καθώς ασχολούμαστε με τη μελέτη μεθόδων προσομοίωσης από κάποια κατανομή π (κατανομή στόχο) και τον υπολογισμό σύνθετων ολοκληρωμάτων. Σε πολλά πραγματικά προβλήματα, όπου η μορφή της π είναι ιδιαίτερα πολύπλοκή ή/και η διάσταση του χώρου καταστάσεων μεγάλη, η προσομοίωση από την π δεν μπορεί να γίνει με απλές τεχνικές καθώς επίσης και ο υπολογισμός των ολοκληρωμάτων είναι πάρα πολύ δύσκολο αν όχι αδύνατο να γίνει αναλυτικά. Γι’ αυτό, καταφεύγουμε σε τεχνικές Monte Carlo (MC) και Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), οι οποίες προσομοιώνουν τιμές τυχαίων μεταβλητών και εκτιμούν τα ολοκληρώματα μέσω κατάλληλων συναρτήσεων των προσομοιωμένων τιμών. Οι τεχνικές MC παράγουν ανεξάρτητες παρατηρήσεις είτε απ’ ευθείας από την κατανομή-στόχο π είτε από κάποια διαφορετική κατανομή-πρότασης g. Οι τεχνικές MCMC προσομοιώνουν αλυσίδες Markov με στάσιμη κατανομή την και επομένως οι παρατηρήσεις είναι εξαρτημένες. Στα πλαίσια αυτής της εργασίας θα ασχοληθούμε κυρίως με τον αλγόριθμο Metropolis-Hastings που είναι ένας από τους σημαντικότερους, αν όχι ο σημαντικότερος, MCMC αλγόριθμους. Πιο συγκεκριμένα, στο Κεφάλαιο 2 γίνεται μια σύντομη αναφορά σε γνωστές τεχνικές MC, όπως η μέθοδος Αποδοχής-Απόρριψης, η μέθοδος Αντιστροφής και η μέθοδος Δειγματοληψίας σπουδαιότητας καθώς επίσης και σε τεχνικές MCMC, όπως ο αλγόριθμός Metropolis-Hastings, o Δειγματολήπτης Gibbs και η μέθοδος Metropolis Within Gibbs. Στο Κεφάλαιο 3 γίνεται αναλυτική αναφορά στον αλγόριθμο Metropolis-Hastings. Αρχικά, παραθέτουμε μια σύντομη ιστορική αναδρομή και στη συνέχεια δίνουμε μια αναλυτική περιγραφή του. Παρουσιάζουμε κάποιες ειδικές μορφές τού καθώς και τις βασικές ιδιότητες που τον χαρακτηρίζουν. Το κεφάλαιο ολοκληρώνεται με την παρουσίαση κάποιων εφαρμογών σε προσομοιωμένα καθώς και σε πραγματικά δεδομένα. Το τέταρτο κεφάλαιο ασχολείται με μεθόδους εκτίμησης της διασποράς του εργοδικού μέσου ο οποίος προκύπτει από τις MCMC τεχνικές. Ιδιαίτερη αναφορά γίνεται στις μεθόδους Batch means και Spectral Variance Estimators. Τέλος, το Κεφάλαιο 5 ασχολείται με την εύρεση μιας κατάλληλης κατανομή πρότασης για τον αλγόριθμό Metropolis-Hastings. Παρόλο που ο αλγόριθμος Metropolis-Hastings μπορεί να συγκλίνει για οποιαδήποτε κατανομή πρότασης αρκεί να ικανοποιεί κάποιες βασικές υποθέσεις, είναι γνωστό ότι μία κατάλληλη επιλογή της κατανομής πρότασης βελτιώνει τη σύγκλιση του αλγόριθμου. Ο προσδιορισμός της βέλτιστής κατανομής πρότασης για μια συγκεκριμένη κατανομή στόχο είναι ένα πολύ σημαντικό αλλά εξίσου δύσκολο πρόβλημα. Το πρόβλημα αυτό έχει προσεγγιστεί με πολύ απλοϊκές τεχνικές (trial-and-error τεχνικές) αλλά και με adaptive αλγόριθμούς που βρίσκουν μια "καλή" κατανομή πρότασης αυτόματα. / This thesis is part of research in Computational Statistics, as we deal with the study of methods of modeling some distribution π (target distribution) and calculate complex integrals. In many real problems, where the form of π is very complex and / or the size of large state space, simulation of π can not be done with simple techniques as well as the calculation of the integrals is very difficult if not impossible to done analytically. So we resort to techniques Monte Carlo (MC) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), which simulate values ​​of random variables and estimate the integrals by appropriate functions of the simulated values. These techniques produce MC independent observations either directly from the distribution n target or a different distribution motion-g. MCMC techniques simulate Markov chains with stationary distribution and therefore the observations are dependent. As part of this work we will deal mainly with the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is one of the greatest, if not the most important, MCMC algorithms. More specifically, in Chapter 2 is a brief reference to known techniques MC, such as Acceptance-Rejection method, the inversion method and importance sampling methods as well as techniques MCMC, as the algorithm Metropolis-Hastings, o Gibbs sampler and method Metropolis Within Gibbs. Chapter 3 is a detailed report on the algorithm Metropolis-Hastings. First, we present a brief history and then give a detailed description. Present some specific forms as well as the basic properties that characterize them. The chapter concludes with a presentation of some applications on simulated and real data. The fourth chapter deals with methods for estimating the dispersion of ergodic average, derived from the MCMC techniques. Particular reference is made to methods Batch means and Spectral Variance Estimators. Finally, Chapter 5 deals with finding a suitable proposal for the allocation algorithm Metropolis-Hastings. Although the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm can converge on any distribution motion sufficient to satisfy some basic assumptions, it is known that an appropriate selection of the distribution proposal improves the convergence of the algorithm. Determining the optimal allocation proposal for a specific distribution target is a very important but equally difficult problem. This problem has been approached in a very simplistic techniques (trial-and-error techniques) but also with adaptive algorithms that find a "good" allocation proposal automatically.

vi, 48 p. : ill. A print copy of this thesis is available through the UO Libraries. Search the library catalog for the location and call number. / We compare the relaxation times of two random walks - the simple random walk and the metropolis walk - on an arbitrary finite multigraph G. We apply this result to the random graph with n vertices, where each edge is included with probability p = [Special characters omitted.] where λ > 1 is a constant and also to the Newman-Watts small world model. We give a bound for the reconstruction problem for general trees and general 2 × 2 matrices in terms of the branching number of the tree and some function of the matrix. Specifically, if the transition probabilities between the two states in the state space are a and b , we show that we do not have reconstruction if Br( T ) [straight theta] < 1, where [Special characters omitted.] and Br( T ) is the branching number of the tree in question. This bound agrees with a result obtained by Martin for regular trees and is obtained by more elementary methods. We prove an inequality closely related to this problem. / Committee in charge: David Levin, Chairperson, Mathematics; Christopher Sinclair, Member, Mathematics; Marcin Bownik, Member, Mathematics; Hao Wang, Member, Mathematics; Van Kolpin, Outside Member, Economics

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / É possível uma juventude periferizada e criminosa ser encantadora, apaixonante? É possível se pensar esta mesma juventude cotidianamente em situação de fuga, como produtora de fervilhantes estéticas, reverberadora de vozes afirmativas, que amplificam e exibem, diante de nossos narizes, espancadas nas superfícies visuais de nossas cidades, significativas contradições e dissonâncias flagrantes de boa parte dos desafios urgentes para nossa sociedade fragmentada? Esta pesquisa, portanto, se mostrando, logo de cara, nada imparcial, propõe uma aventura intelectual cheia de ousadias, e por que não, crimes, que sugerem, mesmo que nada educadamente, respostas afirmativas a estas perguntas. Para tanto, mergulhei, e, de repente, me vi envolvido, contaminado por uma meninada que escolheu a piXaÇÃo como forma de espancar pelos muros, topos, marquises, pedras, janelas, ou melhor, pela superfície das cidades, a sua existência, gritando em fetiches visuais, sua condição nada anônima, que, não só habita, mas assina e registra à tinta spray, um projeto de cidade, em grande parte, anonimador. A cidade, aparentemente a contra gosto, veste este seu inescapável jeitão contemporâneo, em outras palavras, nada maquiado, em sintonia com os frangalhos, ruínas e imperfeições que nos constituem. Juventude criminosa reencantadora de projetos civilizatórios falidos? Quanta ironia! Ar respirável pela coragem! Vejo, portanto, a produção estética como condição para a existência humana, como maneira de amenizar as misérias de um vazio contemporâneo, como elemento reencantador de um mundo contaminado por um fetiche UNO metafísico. Tudo isso por uma vida mais fruível, prazerosa. piXaÇÃo, então, como uma entre as produções juvenis contemporâneas que, mesmo em sua farda condição periferizada, habitantes dos locais não só geograficamente, mas também, simbolicamente invisibilizados, nomademente, com toda audácia e indisciplina, atravessam esta cidade que, pelo que aparenta, não foi projetada para elas. Seres inesperados, bem-humorados, habilidosos na arte de não serem pegos, nem ligando para tudo isso, fervilhantes flagrantes de que nosso histórico projeto civilizatório, pautado em morais eurorreferenciadas, grosso modo, cristãs, não dão mais conta, se é que um dia deram. Polifonia urbana evidente, sem saber muito bem o que é crime e o que é arte, outras cidades, outras juventudes, outras estéticas. E eu vou por aí, em risco de vida. / Can a peripherized and criminal youth be charmer and lovely? Can we think this youth, in a daily situation of escape, as producer of exciting aesthetics, reverberating affirmative voices, which amplify and show, in front of our noses, spanked over the visual surfaces of ours cities, significatives contradictions and dissonances flagrants of urgent challenges to our fragmented society? This research, therefore, showing up as a nonimpartial work, proposes an intellectual adventure full of daring, and why not, crimes, suggesting, even not educative, affirmative answers to these questions. In this way, I plunged, and, suddenly, saw myself surrounded and contaminated by these youth. who chose the piXação as a way to spank through the walls, tops, marquee, stones, windows, or better, through the surface of the city, their existence, shouting out of loud in visual fetishes, their non-anonimous situation, that not only inhabits, but signs and register with aerosol paint, a city project, in several ways, anonimator. The city, apparently against its will, dresses its inescapable contemporary face, in other words, not made up, tuned with the frazzle, ruins and imperfections that constitute us. Criminal youth reenchanter of failed projects of civilization? Such irony! Respirable air through corage! I see, therefore, the aesthetic production as condition for the human existence, as a way to temper the miseries of a contemporary felling of empty, as a reenchanter element of a world contaminated by a metaphysical fetish UNO. All of this, for a more pleasable life. PiXação, so, as one of the contemporary youth aesthetic production that, even with its peripherized situation, inhabitants of locals, not only geographical, but symbolically invisibilized, nomads, with all audacity and indiscipline, crosses this city that, apparently, has not been projected for them. Unexpected beings, in a good mood, skilled in the art of not being caught, not caring about all of this, teeming flagrants that show us that our historical project of civilization, based on euro-referended morals, in some way, Christian, does not account for, anymore. Urban polyphony evident, without knowing very well what is crime and what is art, other cities, other youths, other aesthetic. And I go this way, in risk of life.

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro / É possível uma juventude periferizada e criminosa ser encantadora, apaixonante? É possível se pensar esta mesma juventude cotidianamente em situação de fuga, como produtora de fervilhantes estéticas, reverberadora de vozes afirmativas, que amplificam e exibem, diante de nossos narizes, espancadas nas superfícies visuais de nossas cidades, significativas contradições e dissonâncias flagrantes de boa parte dos desafios urgentes para nossa sociedade fragmentada? Esta pesquisa, portanto, se mostrando, logo de cara, nada imparcial, propõe uma aventura intelectual cheia de ousadias, e por que não, crimes, que sugerem, mesmo que nada educadamente, respostas afirmativas a estas perguntas. Para tanto, mergulhei, e, de repente, me vi envolvido, contaminado por uma meninada que escolheu a piXaÇÃo como forma de espancar pelos muros, topos, marquises, pedras, janelas, ou melhor, pela superfície das cidades, a sua existência, gritando em fetiches visuais, sua condição nada anônima, que, não só habita, mas assina e registra à tinta spray, um projeto de cidade, em grande parte, anonimador. A cidade, aparentemente a contra gosto, veste este seu inescapável jeitão contemporâneo, em outras palavras, nada maquiado, em sintonia com os frangalhos, ruínas e imperfeições que nos constituem. Juventude criminosa reencantadora de projetos civilizatórios falidos? Quanta ironia! Ar respirável pela coragem! Vejo, portanto, a produção estética como condição para a existência humana, como maneira de amenizar as misérias de um vazio contemporâneo, como elemento reencantador de um mundo contaminado por um fetiche UNO metafísico. Tudo isso por uma vida mais fruível, prazerosa. piXaÇÃo, então, como uma entre as produções juvenis contemporâneas que, mesmo em sua farda condição periferizada, habitantes dos locais não só geograficamente, mas também, simbolicamente invisibilizados, nomademente, com toda audácia e indisciplina, atravessam esta cidade que, pelo que aparenta, não foi projetada para elas. Seres inesperados, bem-humorados, habilidosos na arte de não serem pegos, nem ligando para tudo isso, fervilhantes flagrantes de que nosso histórico projeto civilizatório, pautado em morais eurorreferenciadas, grosso modo, cristãs, não dão mais conta, se é que um dia deram. Polifonia urbana evidente, sem saber muito bem o que é crime e o que é arte, outras cidades, outras juventudes, outras estéticas. E eu vou por aí, em risco de vida. / Can a peripherized and criminal youth be charmer and lovely? Can we think this youth, in a daily situation of escape, as producer of exciting aesthetics, reverberating affirmative voices, which amplify and show, in front of our noses, spanked over the visual surfaces of ours cities, significatives contradictions and dissonances flagrants of urgent challenges to our fragmented society? This research, therefore, showing up as a nonimpartial work, proposes an intellectual adventure full of daring, and why not, crimes, suggesting, even not educative, affirmative answers to these questions. In this way, I plunged, and, suddenly, saw myself surrounded and contaminated by these youth. who chose the piXação as a way to spank through the walls, tops, marquee, stones, windows, or better, through the surface of the city, their existence, shouting out of loud in visual fetishes, their non-anonimous situation, that not only inhabits, but signs and register with aerosol paint, a city project, in several ways, anonimator. The city, apparently against its will, dresses its inescapable contemporary face, in other words, not made up, tuned with the frazzle, ruins and imperfections that constitute us. Criminal youth reenchanter of failed projects of civilization? Such irony! Respirable air through corage! I see, therefore, the aesthetic production as condition for the human existence, as a way to temper the miseries of a contemporary felling of empty, as a reenchanter element of a world contaminated by a metaphysical fetish UNO. All of this, for a more pleasable life. PiXação, so, as one of the contemporary youth aesthetic production that, even with its peripherized situation, inhabitants of locals, not only geographical, but symbolically invisibilized, nomads, with all audacity and indiscipline, crosses this city that, apparently, has not been projected for them. Unexpected beings, in a good mood, skilled in the art of not being caught, not caring about all of this, teeming flagrants that show us that our historical project of civilization, based on euro-referended morals, in some way, Christian, does not account for, anymore. Urban polyphony evident, without knowing very well what is crime and what is art, other cities, other youths, other aesthetic. And I go this way, in risk of life.