This paper presents a microsimulation model of the rental sector in the Greater Toronto (GTA). The main contributions of this research are that it develops a conceptual framework for modeling housing issues and policies, and implements a rental model within the Integrated Land Use, Transport, and Environment (ILUTE) framework developed at the University of Toronto. The key components of the rental model include: (1) the production of rental units; (2) a tenure choice model; (3) a rent setting model; and (4) a rental market model. The rental model is simulated yearly from 1986 till 2006. The preliminary results are presented for the number of households renting, the average rent per census tract, and the number of renter households facing affordability issues. Two areas of future research are proposed that seek: (1) to improve the current model’s accuracy; and (2) to develop a more dynamic model.

This paper presents a microsimulation model of the rental sector in the Greater Toronto (GTA). The main contributions of this research are that it develops a conceptual framework for modeling housing issues and policies, and implements a rental model within the Integrated Land Use, Transport, and Environment (ILUTE) framework developed at the University of Toronto. The key components of the rental model include: (1) the production of rental units; (2) a tenure choice model; (3) a rent setting model; and (4) a rental market model. The rental model is simulated yearly from 1986 till 2006. The preliminary results are presented for the number of households renting, the average rent per census tract, and the number of renter households facing affordability issues. Two areas of future research are proposed that seek: (1) to improve the current model’s accuracy; and (2) to develop a more dynamic model.

Urban microsimulators have been increasingly used to forecast land use, environmental and transportation conditions in cities and are a major tool for stakeholders to analyze the effects of urban policy. Although demographic and residential land use models have been well developed for the majority of these systems, labour market conditions and the forecasting of future jobs have at best been limited to high-level exogenous processes. This thesis aims to develop and implement a truly endogenous job supply and job matching model for use with the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. Jobs within the system are tracked individually at both the occupational and industrial level, and matching occurs within an open market framework in an effort to simulate the true macroeconomic conditions of the real world.

Urban microsimulators have been increasingly used to forecast land use, environmental and transportation conditions in cities and are a major tool for stakeholders to analyze the effects of urban policy. Although demographic and residential land use models have been well developed for the majority of these systems, labour market conditions and the forecasting of future jobs have at best been limited to high-level exogenous processes. This thesis aims to develop and implement a truly endogenous job supply and job matching model for use with the Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) modelling system. Jobs within the system are tracked individually at both the occupational and industrial level, and matching occurs within an open market framework in an effort to simulate the true macroeconomic conditions of the real world.

This thesis proposes a framework that combines a mode choice model with a large scaled agent-based multimodal traffic microsimulation. Both components are discussed with respect to their development as separate entities. The mode choice model uses a formulation that explicitly considers latent modal captivity despite using conventional travel survey data. An existing multimodal microsimulation traffic assignment model used in the study area is enhanced and partially calibrated for use with the MATSIM traffic assignment tool. Both of the components are then tested independently in terms of statistical and behavioral validity and a conceptual procedure to test the implications of the mode choice model on mode switching behaviour within the traffic assignment model is presented. Other applications of both the travel assignment model and mode choice model are discussed. In order for the framework to become operational, further development with respect to the traffic assignment model is required.

Work zones are an essential part of roads maintenance. Despite all the efforts addressed to reduce work zone’s negative impacts on the road traffic performance and improve the road safety, there still exist work zone related congestions and traffic problems. This thesis aims to study and analyze highway reconstruction/maintenance activities, their impacts and existing ways of reducing these negative effects and investigating the role of Intelligent Transport Systems in improvement of the difficulties caused by work zones. The research of the factors influencing capacity resulted in three factors presented in each considered study. The factors are heavy vehicle percentage, weather conditions and police presence. An unusual approach presented by Weng & Meng (2011) distinguishes among the examined analytical models. Their Decision-Tree model, based on training a large data set, showed significantly lower values of errors of prediction of level-of-service. Three different dynamic late merge systems (DLMS) have been simulated and analyzed using the AIMSUN micro-simulation software. The simulation outcome shows promising results favoring the use of DLMS. Among the simulated systems is extra focus put on the ALINEA algorithm that shows potential to improve traffic flow in work zones. Conducted sensitivity analysis shows different behaving of the ALINEA algorithm due to change of regulator parameter and critical occupancy. In order to investigate performance of the ALINEA algorithm, an extensive research has to be conducted. The research should include various work zone configurations as well as different values of heavy vehicle percentage and the parameters within the algorithms code should be subjects to optimization.

La presente tesis evalúa los niveles de servicio de la intersección de la Av. La Marina con la Av. Sucre, debido al incremento de la congestión vehicular. Para ello se elaboró un modelo microscópico de la intersección donde se presentaron propuestas de mejora de la situación actual. El análisis de las propuestas se realizó en base al software Vissim 9.0. La presente investigación consta de 5 capítulos. El Capítulo 1, plantea la problemática del tráfico vehicular. Asimismo, se presentan antecedentes de investigaciones similares, la justificación del estudio, la hipótesis y los objetivos del estudio. El Capítulo 2, desarrolla el marco teórico de la investigación. Aquí se toma en cuenta estudios previos realizados e información correspondiente a microsimulación. Se presentan los tipos de modelos de tráfico, fundamentos de microsimulación, modelos de seguimiento vehicular y se explica el funcionamiento del software Vissim V9. El Capítulo 3, describe la metodología empleada en la presente investigación, además del procesamiento de la información, la construcción del modelo de microsimulación debidamente calibrado y validado. El Capítulo 4, presenta los resultados de la microsimulación, determinando el nivel de servicio actual de la intersección en “F” y que al implementar las propuestas de mejora se puede mejorar hasta un nivel “D”. El Capítulo 5, presenta las conclusiones y las recomendaciones. De lo indicado se puede concluir que el uso adecuado del software de simulación de tránsito, permite evaluar y optimizar de manera real los niveles de servicio de una intersección sin necesidad de intervenir de manera real en el área de estudio. / This thesis evaluates the service levels of the intersection of Av. La Marina with Av. Sucre, due to the increase in vehicular congestion. To do this, a microscopic model of the intersection was developed and proposals were made to improve the current situation. The analysis of the proposals was carried out based on Vissim 9.0 software. The present investigation consists of 5 chapters. Chapter 1, raises the issue of vehicular traffic. Likewise, similar research background, the justification of the study, the hypothesis and the objectives of the study are presented. Chapter 2 develops the theoretical framework of the investigation. Here, previous studies and information corresponding to microsimulation are taken into account. The types of traffic models, microsimulation fundamentals, vehicle tracking models are presented and the operation of the Vissim V9 software is explained. Chapter 3 describes the methodology used in this research, in addition to information processing, the construction of the properly calibrated and validated microsimulation model. Chapter 4 presents the results of the microsimulation, determining that the current service level of the intersection is "F" and that by implementing the improvement proposals it can be improved to a "D" level. Chapter 5 presents the conclusions and recommendations. From the aforementioned, it can be concluded that the proper use of traffic simulation software allows for the real evaluation and optimization of the service levels of an intersection without the need to actually intervene in an intersection. / Tesis

La presente tesis propone una solución a la congestión vehicular ocasionado por el establecimiento de un proyecto multifamiliar a través de propuestas de mejora en la infraestructura vial, la cual reducirá las demoras por control y optimizará los niveles de servicio por medio de los parámetros de diseño del modelo de microsimulación de Wiedemann 74. En el primer capítulo contextualiza la problemática del tema de investigación, antecedentes de estudios, justificativa, hipótesis, objetivos y limitaciones de la investigación. En el segundo capítulo se desarrolla el marco teórico que respalda los criterios con los que se desarrollará el modelo de microsimulación y la propuesta de mejora. Se define los tipos de modelos de tránsito, los fundamentos de la microsimulación y conceptos que serán importantes al momento de realizar el análisis de resultados. El tercer capítulo describe la metodología que se utiliza desde la recolección de datos de campo hasta el modelo de microsimulación debidamente calibrado y validado. Además, se detalla la elaboración del modelo de microsimulación. En el cuarto capítulo se presentan el análisis de resultados obtenidos en la situación actual, en la situación del proyecto a 5 años sin implementar las propuestas de mejora y luego, se presentan las medidas de mitigación a los impactos negativos, los cuales involucra el diseño de la infraestructura vial y reajuste en los ciclos semafóricos. En el último capítulo se encontrarán las conclusiones y recomendaciones a las que se llegaron respondiendo así el objetivo general de la presente tesis. / This thesis proposes a solution to vehicular congestion caused by the establishment of a multi-family project through proposals for improvement in road infrastructure, which will reduce delays in control and optimize service levels through the design parameters of the Wiedemann microsimulation model 74. In the first chapter, it contextualizes the problems of the research topic, study background, justification, hypotheses, objectives and limitations of the research. In the second chapter, the theoretical framework that supports the criteria with which the microsimulation model will be developed and the improvement proposal will be developed. It defines the types of traffic models, the fundamentals of microsimulation and concepts that will be important when performing the results analysis. The third chapter describes the methodology used from the field data collection to the properly calibrated and validated microsimulation model. In addition, the elaboration of the microsimulation model is detailed. In the fourth chapter, the analysis of results obtained in the current situation is presented, in the situation of the project 5 years without implementing the improvement proposals and then, the mitigation measures to the negative impacts are presented, which involves the design of road infrastructure and readjustment in traffic light cycles. In the last chapter you will find the conclusions and recommendations that were reached thus responding to the general objective of this thesis. / Tesis

Alternative intersections and interchanges, such as the diverging diamond interchange (DDI), the restricted crossing u-turn (RCUT), and the displaced left-turn intersection (DLT), have the potential to both improve safety and reduce delay. However, partially due to lingering questions about analysis methods and service measures for these designs, their rate of implementation remains low. This research attempts to answer three key questions. Can alternative intersections and interchanges be incorporated into the existing level of service and service measure schema, or is a new service measure with an updated level of service model required? Is the behavior of drivers at alternative intersections fundamentally similar to those at conventional intersections, such that traffic microsimulation applications can accurately model the behaviors observed in the field? Finally, is the planning level tool made available through FHWA an accurate predictor of the relative performance of various alternatives, or is an updated tool necessary? Discussion and case study analysis are used to explore the existing level of service and service measure schema. The existing control delay measure is recommended to be replaced with a proposed junction delay measure that incorporates geometric delay, with the existing level of service schema based on control type recommended to be replaced by a proposed schema using demand volume. A case study validation of micro- and macroscopic analysis methods is conducted, finding the two microscopic methods investigated to match field observed vehicle delays within 3 to 7 seconds for all designs tested, and macroscopic HCM method matching within 3 seconds for the DDI, 35 seconds for the RCUT, and 130 seconds for the DLT design. Taking the critical lane analysis method to be a valid measure of operations, the demand-volume limitations of each alternative design is explored using eighteen geometric configurations and approximately three thousand volume scenarios, with the DLT design predicted to accommodate the highest demand volumes before failure is reached. Finally, six geometries are examined using both the planning-level tool and the validated microsimulation tool, finding that the curve of the capacity-to-delay relationship varies for each alternative design, invalidating the use of critical lane analysis as a comparative tool. / Ph. D.

The aim of the thesis is to investigate local impacts of large investments. This problem has been approached from three directions and, therefore, the study consists of three themes, namely: the changing spatial patterns of corporate activities, the short-term local economic impacts of invest­ments, and the long-term socio-economic impacts of investments on the local municipality. In order to put the impact studies of investments into a broader context the first theme provides an analysis of the macro-orientated processes that change the spatial pattern of a forest- based industry. The empirical investigation is based on a case-study of a major Swedish forest company (SCA — Svenska Cellulosa Aktiebolaget), analysing its development from the 1950s to the present (Paper I). The locational changes of production plants, sales units and headquarters have been mapped and, parallel to this study of the company's spatial evolution, the underlying corporate strategies are discussed. The second theme focuses on the short-term local economic impacts of investments which are carried out at production units. The empirical data has been collected from a major investment introducing a new technology (Light Weight Coated paper - LWC) at Ortviken, an SCA-owned paper mill in Sundsvall. The point of departure for the analysis is the identification of contracted suppliers and their location in order to obtain a picture of the investment's diffusion in the local economy. As the choice of supplier is an important part of the study, criteria on how suppliers are chosen have also been examined (Paper II). Moreover, by using results from a number of similar investment studies, an attempt is made to summarize general experiences within a tentative model for estimating the share of local purchase deriving from major investments: the Local or Non-Local (LNL) model (Paper III). The third theme of the thesis pinpoints long-term local impacts of large investments. The investment generates impacts not only concurrently with the implementation phase, but also during the operation period of the invested item. The investigation of long-term socio-economic impacts has been performed by two studies employing different methodological approaches. The first study (Paper IV) deals with ex ante local impacts of locating a nuclear waste repository in Storuman or Mala, two sparsely populated municipalities in northern Sweden. The model is a traditional macro- formulated cohort model which is combined with a 'basic/non-basic' assumption regarding the intcrdependency within the local trade and business. The second study (Paper V) refers once again to the forest-based industry by emphasising the long-term socio-economic impacts of the investment examined in Paper II. This paper employs a micro-analytical modelling approach, so that, the municipal population is represented individually within the model. A microsimulation model is elaborated in order to analyse the long-term (15 years) local population and labour market dynamics induced by the LWC-investment. Some major findings of the thesis are: * The share of local purchase is connected to the composition of the investment. Analyses have shown that the higher the technological demand and the more technically advanced the goods and services related to the investment, the smaller is the local share of the purchase. *  It has proved possible to trace chain effects on different local labour-markets induced by changes in production at a particular place of work. Through linkages between the partial labour markets the closure of a major place of work will not only affect the occupational groups to which laid-off employees belong, but also give rise to changes in unemployment levels in many other occupations. / digitalisering@umu