The literature on regime persistence in the Arab world, particularly when it comes to the monarchies, has missed many crucial elements. Specifically, the role of the military within the elite coalition and the factors that lead to variation on this variable have not been adequately studied. In this report, two cases of persistent monarchies – Morocco and Jordan - will be examined. This study will focus on the development of the military establishments in these two cases, as well as their current state of civil-military relations. Using an institutionalist approach, the study finds that civil-military relations in both regimes is a direct outcome of the monarchy’s role, which, in turn, rests on three factors: the historical legacy of the monarchy in state formation, the appeal of the monarch to a large proportion of the population, and the institutional mechanisms utilized by the monarchy to maintain control over their military establishments. The monarchical role in the development of the military subordinates the armed forces, as well as lessens their professionalization as they become less representative and more politicized institutions. Subordination of the military as a strategy of the monarchy is thus highlighted as an important variable in the persistence of this type of authoritarian regime. / text

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited / This thesis analyzes the civil-military relations in the Republic of South Africa as of the end of apartheid. The analysis is based on the theoretical framework of Charles Moskos et al. Based on the development of the civil-military relations in the US as of the end of the Cold War, the Moskos paradigm uses a number of case studies such as those of the UK, France or Germany to confirm the US patterns and uses the paradigm to predict the development of the civil-military relations in Western type democracies. The basic argument is that a change in the international security environment such as the end of the Cold War and the balance of power has had implications on the perceived threat and consequently on the military's mission, force structure, the dominant military professional, and the allocated budget. These changes have also resulted in a change of the military's values and norms. Whereas formerly the politics and society were willing to accept that the military had its own unique values and norms because of the requirement to serve a presumed higher good, this no longer is the case. Moskos uses factors such as the changed relationship between the military and the media, the change in the public attitude toward the military, or the role of women and homosexuals in the military to show how the values and norms of the military are changing and how these changes are closing the gap between civilian society and the military. With regard to South Africa, the thesis will show that the civilmilitary relation has developed along the lines of the postmodern paradigm. However, the newly elected democratic government was challenged by the need to conduct a balanced transformation in which the South African Defense Force simultaneously had to build an institution that is transparent, accountable and representative of the societal demographics. Furthermore, the Department of Defence had to incorporate eight former statutory and non-statutory armies, guerillas, and African revolutionaries into one force and at the same time reduce the total number of soldiers and all this with a reduced budget in order to allow for social reconstruction and development. Additionally and contrary to the postmodern paradigm, the transformation of the South African National Defense Force and the civil-military relations are not only shaped by external factors but to a large degree by domestic issues such as the rate of poverty, distribution of wealth, crime or HIV/AIDS. / Commander, German Navy

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited / Botswana has been hailed as a "model of success", an "African Miracle" and a "rare bird in Africa" because of its economic prosperity record and democratic achievements in a region of sharp contrasts. A well-developed bureaucracy, selfless leadership and a favorable diamond-led economy have been identified as the main drivers of this success. Its military has earned international acclaim for being professional, well trained and highly disciplined. Organized into four chapters, this thesis recognizes these achievements, but draws the reader to an equally important aspect of statecraft, the underdevelopment of a defense bureaucracy, that may undermine the country's democratic gains and its economic prosperity. Chapter I proposes an institutionalist conceptual framework to the contemporary landscape of civil-military relations. Chapter II locates the evolution of the military within the template of statecraft, highlighting professionalization as a strategy of military development in the absence of a coherent defense bureaucracy and weak institutions of democratic oversight. The chapter underlines potential dangers of this institutional matrix to civil-military relations and governance. Chapter III captures the evolution of the state amidst elite cohesion and decontraction, demonstrating how these contrasts affect governance in general and civilmilitary relations in particular. Finally, Chapter IV advances a new institutional matrix for democratic control of the military. / Captain, Botswana Defense Force

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The geopolitical change and emergence of new threats, notably terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, forced a reappraisal of the political and security roles of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The Alliance's post- Cold War development, operations in the Balkans, and differences across the Atlantic also provided grounds for a revision of NATO's purely self-defense dimension. The Alliance, after having permanent out-of-area debates, has realized that it can no longer be circumscribed by artificial geographic boundaries to meet the future. At its Summit in Prague 2002, NATO initiated a new concept transforming itself into an effective organization with a global approach. By establishing the NATO Response Force, balancing the burden-shifting, and opening the security dialog among likeminded allies, NATO renewed the essence of common transatlantic values. By analyzing NATO's role and its prevailing tendencies, this thesis contends that NATO is no longer a regional security organization but a collective security instrument with its first front abroad, in the Greater Middle East and Northern Africa. However, if NATO is to contribute profoundly to international peace, it needs an institutional framework with global legitimacy. / Lieutenant Colonel, Czech Armed Forces

Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / Since the end of the Cold War, Mongolia has enjoyed a new security environment that offers both a genuine opportunity to determine its national security and unavoidable uncertainties that accompany all transitions to democracy. Entering the new environment, the nation faced an urgent necessity to form new policies to meet those uncertainties and establish adequate institutions to implement them. Mongolia, as most small nations with greater vulnerability, sees its security in the greater view of emphasizing its survival in all dimensions with the physical endurance of not being invaded by a military force on the one hand, and survival of its ethnical identity from being assimilated by outnumbered neighbors on the other. Such a broad definition of national security requires participation of all elements of the society in the security process, thus an adequate system able to manage such broad involvement becomes vital. Mongolia has successfully managed to establish a relatively efficient and complex system for national security management. The NSC is the only state institution responsible for the coordination of the nation's effort to ensure its security. However, despite the clear definition of the legal status of the National Security Council provided by legal acts, there is a persistent incorrect popular feeling that the National Security Council is a presidential institution and that the President enjoys the prerogative of orchestrating the nation's effort to ensure its security. This thesis argues coordinative functions will be more efficient if the NSC will properly maintain its independent, non-attached status, and its immediate supportive institutions, the Executive Secretary and the Office, serve as non-partisan, independent, and purely professional units devoted to serving only the interests of national security. / Civilian, Mongolian Government Employee

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / The purpose of this study is to determine how post-Cold War NATO allies have contributed to transatlantic relations, both in times of crisis and in times of harmony. Their contribution, although less significant when compared to long-time members' military capabilities, takes various forms. Their support in times of disagreement among allies over the Iraq 2002-2003 issue proved to be more valuable than was anticipated. Therefore, my research is an introspective look at the events that marked NATO's evolution during the last fifteen years and their implications for NATO members as units and for traditional transatlantic relations as a whole. Successive NATO enlargements proved that each decision to add new members reflected NATO's priorities at that particular moment. Whether it was a pre-Cold War enlargement or a post-Cold War enlargement, the decision reflected NATO's interests. Some of the decisions were predominantly military; some were in accordance with the international order established after World War II. The post-Cold War enhancements had two major characteristics: the first enlargement was more symbolic than the second because it erased the artificial lines set by Yalta, whereas the second one was much more practical. The geo-strategic position of the NATO candidates and their willingness to join, prior to their formal invitation, were favorable factors, and the decisions made regarding membership proved to have long-term, positive consequences. New NATO members, particularly Romania, appreciated their new status and participated actively in both NATO operations and in "coalition of the willing". Their equal participation in NATO-led operations and coalitions made a palpable contribution to both NATO and to the transatlantic relations. / International Civilian, Romanian Ministry of National Defense

This thesis seeks to identify if, in the course of the United States and NATO s democratic institution building efforts in Bosnia-Herzegovina, the United States and NATO are offering a viable model of how military professionals interact with a healthy democratic society. Because the understanding of how military professionals should interact with society as a whole is often flawed in the United States and other developed democratic states, this study will research how well the United States and NATO are presenting a realistic model to professional soldiers in Bosnia-Herzegovina. This study begins with a broad look at civil-military relations theory and examines select historical examples of professional soldiers exceeding their purview in developed countries such as the United States and Britain. The Yugoslav People s Army s political history is surveyed to examine the political involvement of professional soldiers in politics in the former state of Yugoslavia. Lastly, this study will examine contemporary Bosnia-Herzegovina and the West's democratic institution-building efforts.

"The end of the Cold War marked for Europe the entrance into an era of instability and violence caused by the collapse of the old communist regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. How the European security organizations reacted to those changes and new threats and transformed themselves for dealing with a new security environment is the focus of this thesis. In particular, it gives an overview of the transformations that occurred within NATO and OSCE in the post-Cold War period, which have created and developed new security mechanisms and policies for dealing with crises. The thesis further examines the consolidation of a new European security actor, the European Union, and the development of the military dimension through the ESDP, which is linked directly to transformations that occurred in Europe, being merely a consequence of those changes. All three organizations proved their importance as stability factors of the European security system by launching crisis management operations, acting in ceasefire and post-conflict mediation, conducting preventive diplomacy, and spreading democracy and principles of human rights."-- p. i. / Republic of Moldova Army author.

Military mutinies are occurring more frequently in the last two decades than ever before. Mutinies impact every region of the world. Given that they are occurring more frequently, impact every region, and often have disastrous implications, scholars must answer the foundational question: why do mutinies occur? What are the proximate domestic conditions that give rise to military mutinies? This project makes three contributions. First, I set out to formally define mutinies and collect a new dataset that will allow scholars to examine mutinies empirically. Second, I present a theoretical framework that explains when and why mutinies will occur. Finally, I present three novel empirical tests of the theory. The first portion of this dissertation defines mutinies and describes the data collection process. I present the Military Mutinies and Defections Databases (MMDD). Using news articles from various sources, I code 460 mutiny events from 1945 – present day. I code a number of other variables that give users details about the event, such as: whether or not violence was used, whether or not civilians were killed, and whether or not soldiers defected from the military apparatus. Next, I utilize a nested principal agent model to describe when mutinies are likely to occur. Agent models describe hierarchical relationships of delegation. A nested structure allows for multiple agents and multiple principals in a given model. I apply this nested structure to the military to generate three various nests. The first examines foot soldiers as an agent of the military leadership. In this nest, policy failures (e.g., bad strategy) secured by the military leadership will drive foot soldier mutinies. The second nest explores foot soldiers as agents of the executive, a civilian principal. In this nest, I expect that situations that place soldiers in conflict with the executive will generate shirking. The final nest considers foot soldiers and military leadership as collective agents of the executive. I theorize that risk aversion and divergent preferences will drive shirking, or mutinies, in this nested structure. The final nest presents an interesting trade-off for a coup-worried leader. I argue that while executives can utilize regime securing strategies, such strategies might actually agitate the military and drive low level military rebellions. Coup proofing, a common practice among executives that are worried they will be ousted by the military, effectively wards of coups but can generate unintended consequences. Specifically, I expect that counterbalancing measures and other coup proofing tactics should spur mutinies because the intended purpose of these measures is to create coordination challenges which likely spur military splintering. The first empirical chapter sets out to explore the relationship between civil conflict and the likelihood of mutinies. I expect that when civil wars are extremely bloody or long lasting, mutinies will be more likely as war-weary soldiers no longer want to invest in the war effort. I find evidence that indeed civil war intensity and duration contribute to the probability of a state experiencing a mutiny. The second empirical chapter explores scenarios that pit foot soldiers preferences against the executive’s. I expect that scenarios that impose steep costs on foot soldiers, yet provide some benefit to the executive are likely to spur mutinies. I find evidence that protest events and divisionary conflict spur mutinies. The final empirical chapter explores the military apparatus as a whole. I find that coup proofing measures increase the likelihood of mutinies. Additionally, I find that scenarios that are likely to spur widespread dissent among military actors will increase the likelihood of a mutiny in the context of steep coordination challenges that stifle coup activity. The final chapter concludes by providing policy recommendations. I offer recommendations for leader states (e.g., major powers and democratic leaders in the international system) and for states experiencing mutinies. I conclude by discussing the many possible extensions for this project. This section seeks to emphasis the fact that this is a young, novel research program with many promising avenues for future research.

Turkey and Pakistan share a long history of military tutelage, influence, and intervention in politics. This thesis analyzes the evolution of the political role of the military in the two countries, in order to understand the causes of the Turkish military’s diminished political influence since 2002, contrasted with the Pakistani military’s continuing grip over the country’s political system. Three factors can explain this divergence in civilian control of the military between the two countries. In Turkey, there has been a constant process of elite turnover and replacement, culminating in the gradual emergence and consolidation of counter-elite power in the 1990s and 2000s. In Pakistan, the traditional civil-military “Establishment” has remained remarkably unchanged in its constitution and structure. The role of elites in determining the course of civil-military relations has been conditioned by two other factors, (1) external influences and (2) varying patterns of civilian institutional legitimacy.