In this thesis, we explore the potential of financing a fast charging system with energy storage by delivering ancillary services from the energy storage in an optimal way. Specifically, a system delivering frequency regulation services FCR-D Up and FCR-D Down in combination with energy arbitrage trading is considered. An optimization model is developed that could be implemented operationally and then used in a Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate the net present value of the system for four identified cases at three different energy market price scenarios. The main modeling approach is to formulate the system as a state-space model serving as the foundation for model predictive control, with the delay between decision and delivery of the frequency regulation services incorporated as a part of the system state. The optimization of the system is implemented using a dynamic programming approach with a time horizon of 48h, where the choice of admissible controls is optimized for computational efficiency. The result shows that the system could profitable under optimal operation, but it is heavily dependent on the size of the grid connection, future price levels for ancillary services, and the nature of fast-charging demand. As such, the business case and profitability should be evaluated with a specific use case in mind. The developed model showed relatively good computational efficiency for operational implementations with a run time for one iteration of the optimization problem of 15 seconds. The model could therefore be used as the foundation for future research within the specific field and for similar control problems considering delayed controls and stochastic demand. Several proposed improvements and suggested areas of future research are proposed. / I den här uppsatsen utforskar vi huruvida det är finansiellt lönsamt att leverera snabbladdning från ett energilager samtidigt som energilagret används för att leverera systemtjänster på ett optimalt sätt. Mer specifikt undersöks ett potentiellt system som levererar frekvensregleringstjänsterna FCR-D Up och FCR-D Down samt energiarbitragehandel. Vi utvecklar en optimeringsmodell som kan implementeras i ett fysiskt system och använder sedan modellen i en Monte-Carlo-simulering för att estimera nuvärdet av fyra olika systemkonfigurationer för tre olika prisscenarion. Den huvudsakliga modelleringsmetoden är att formulera systemet som en tillstånds-rum modell, som sedan används som grund för modellprediktiv styrning, där fördröjningen mellan beslut och leverans av frekvensregleringstjänster inkluderas som en del av systemets tillstånd. Optimeringen av systemet implementeras med en dynamisk programmeringsmetodik med en tidsram på 48 timmar, där valet av tillåtna kontroller optimeras för beräkningseffektivitet. Resultatet visar att systemet kan vara lönsamt under optimal drift, men det är starkt beroende av storleken på nätanslutningen, framtida prisnivåer för systemtjänster och typen av snabbladdningsbehovet. Därför bör lönsamheten utvärderas för varje specifikt fall. Den utvecklade modellen visade relativt god beräkningseffektivitet för praktiskt implementation med en körtid för en enskilt iteration på 15 sekunder. Modellen kan därför användas som grund för framtida forskning inom området och för liknande problem inom optimal styrteori som involverar fördröjda kontroller och stokastisk efterfrågan. Flera föreslagna förbättringar och områden för framtida forskning föreslås.

I dagens samhälle är det viktigt att använda sig av optimerade transportförbindelser där det är samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt. Optimala beräkningar och värderingar är viktiga för att inse vilka projekt som kommer att bli lönsamma. Syftet med denna kvantitativa studie är att undersöka de effekterna som påverkar ett infrastrukturprojekt där nyttan och kostnaden av en färjeled jämförs med en bro i ett mindre samhälle. Detta för att se om en broförbindelse mellan Hemsön och Strinningen är samhällsekonomisk lönsam.  Data samlades in från den nuvarande färjeleden mellan Strinningen och Hemsön. Metoden som valdes var en samhällsekonomisk nyttoanalys som utgick från ramverket från ASEK 8, där de påverkande effekterna togs fram och de beräkningsbara effekterna beräknades. Konsumentprisindex tillämpades för att vikta upp de beräkningsbara effekterna till projektets startdatum. Därefter användes nuvärdesmetoden för att vikta kostnader och nyttor över projektets diskonteringsperiod. En Monte Carlo-simulering tillämpades för att beräkna osäkra kostnader och nyttor. Detta gjordes genom att slumpmässigt generera värden i intervallet där de osäkra nyttorna låg med ett stort antal iterationer. Resultatet av de beräkningsbara effekterna visade på en genomsnittlig förlust med en låg sannolikhet för att projektet skulle bli samhällsekonomiskt lönsamt. De ej beräkningsbara effekterna var främst positiva men var med störst sannolikhet inte tillräckligt stora för att göra medelvärdet för nettovinsten positiv. Detta betydde att en ny broförbindelse mellan Strinningen och Hemsön över den ekonomiska livslängden inte skulle bli samhällsekonomiskt lönsam. / In today’s society, it is important to make use of optimized transport links where it is economically viable. Optimal calculations and valuations are important to understand which projects will be profitable. The purpose of this quantitative study is to examine the effects affecting an infrastructure project where the benefit and cost of a ferry link is compared to a bridge in a small city. This is to see if a bridge connection between Hemsön and Strinningen is economically viable.   Data was collected from the current ferry route between Strinningen and Hemsön. The method chosen was a cost benefit analysis that was based on the framework form ASEK 8, where the effects were drawn up and the calculable effects were calculated. The consumer price index was applied to weight up the calculable effects to the projects start date. The present value method was used to weight costs and benefits over the projects discount period. A Monte Carlo simulation was applied to calculate uncertain costs and benefits. This was done by randomly generating values in the range where the uncertain benefits lay with a large number of iterations. The result of the calculable effects showed an average loss with a low probability that the project would be economically viable. The non-calculabe effects were mainly positive but were most likely not large enough to make the average value of the net profit positive. This meant that a new bridge connection between Strinningen and Hemsön over the economic lifespan would not be economically viable.

The aim of the thesis is to evaluate an investment project in the Russian Federation from the foreign investor's perspective. The project feasibility study was developed as the first step in a decision making process of execution an international investment project, which includes ambient conditions and market analysis. The plan of cash flow was compiled in compliance of Russian tax system, and was considered as a base for project evaluation by using appropriate methods. For further assessment of possible risks of the project was used sensitivity analysis.

<p>Detta examensarbete har genomförts vid Mälarenergi Elnät AB i Västerås. Undersökningen föranleddes av regeringsbeslutet om att elmätare måste avläsas en gång per månad från 2009. Konsekvensen för Mälarenergi är att de måste investera i ett automatiskt mätinsamlingssystem. Syftet med projektet har varit att skapa en generell investeringsmodell för att ekonomiskt utvärdera ett antal mätinsamlingssystem. I rapporten har Milabs, Seneas, Enermets, HM Powers, Iprobes samt Techems och Viterras system analyserats. Resultaten från investeringskalkylen visar att Mälarenergi kommer att göra en förlust på 5-8 MSEK/år under hela projektets livslängd (15 år). Den största delen av investeringen utgörs av hårdvarukostnader (50 %), medan drift- och underhållskostnader samt logistikkostnader utgör 20 % respektive 25 %. Mälarenergi Elnät bör budgetera 1 500-1 950 SEK/mätpunkt för projektet, beroende på systemval. En känslighetsanalys visar att driftskostnad och livslängd är avgörande faktorer, vilket medför att det är viktigare att satsa på ett robust och säkert system än det billigaste.</p>

Detta examensarbete har genomförts vid Mälarenergi Elnät AB i Västerås. Undersökningen föranleddes av regeringsbeslutet om att elmätare måste avläsas en gång per månad från 2009. Konsekvensen för Mälarenergi är att de måste investera i ett automatiskt mätinsamlingssystem. Syftet med projektet har varit att skapa en generell investeringsmodell för att ekonomiskt utvärdera ett antal mätinsamlingssystem. I rapporten har Milabs, Seneas, Enermets, HM Powers, Iprobes samt Techems och Viterras system analyserats. Resultaten från investeringskalkylen visar att Mälarenergi kommer att göra en förlust på 5-8 MSEK/år under hela projektets livslängd (15 år). Den största delen av investeringen utgörs av hårdvarukostnader (50 %), medan drift- och underhållskostnader samt logistikkostnader utgör 20 % respektive 25 %. Mälarenergi Elnät bör budgetera 1 500-1 950 SEK/mätpunkt för projektet, beroende på systemval. En känslighetsanalys visar att driftskostnad och livslängd är avgörande faktorer, vilket medför att det är viktigare att satsa på ett robust och säkert system än det billigaste.

In the last half century, the aerospace industry has seen a dramatic paradigm shift from a focus on performance-at-any-cost to product economics and value. The steady increase in product requirements, complexity and global competition has driven aircraft manufacturers to seek broad portfolios of advanced technologies. The development costs and cycle times of these technologies vary widely, and the resulting design environment is one where decisions must be made under substantial uncertainty. Modeling and simulation have recently become the standard practice for addressing these issues; detailed simulations and explorations of candidate future states of these systems help reduce a complex design problem into a comprehensible, manageable form where decision factors are prioritized. While there are still fundamental criticisms about using modeling and simulation, the emerging challenge becomes ``How do you best configure uncertainty analyses and the information they produce to address real world problems?” One such analysis approach was developed in this thesis by structuring the input, models, and output to answer questions about the risk and economic impact of technology decisions in future aircraft programs. Unlike other methods, this method placed emphasis on the uncertainty in the cumulative cashflow space as the integrator of economic viability. From this perspective, it then focused on exploration of the design and technology space to tailor the business case and its associated risk in the cash flow dimension. The methodology is called CASSANDRA and is intended to be executed by a program manager of a manufacturer working of the development of future concepts. The program manager has the ability to control design elements as well as the new technology allocation on that aircraft. She is also responsible for the elicitation of the uncertainty in those dimensions within control as well as the external scenarios (that are out of program control). The methodology was applied on a future single-aisle 150 passenger aircraft design. The overall methodology is compared to existing approaches and is shown to identify more economically robust design decisions under a set of at-risk program scenarios. Additionally, a set of metrics in the uncertain cumulative cashflow space were developed to assist the methodology user in the identification, evaluation, and selection of design and technology. These metrics are compared to alternate approaches and are shown to better identify risk efficient design and technology selections. At the modeling level, an approach is given to estimate the production quantity based on an enhanced Overall Evaluation Criterion method that captures the competitive advantage of the aircraft design. This model was needed as the assumption of production quantity is highly influential to the business case risk. Finally, the research explored the capacity to generate risk mitigation strategies in to two analysis configurations: when available data and simulation capacity are abundant, and when they are sparse or incomplete. The first configuration leverages structured filtration of Monte Carlo simulation results. The allocation of design and technology risk is then identified on the Pareto Frontier. The second configuration identifies the direction of robust risk mitigation based on the available data and limited simulation ability. It leverages a linearized approximation of the cashflow metrics and identifies the direction of allocation using the Jacobian matrix and its inversion.

The Nigeria economy is wholly dependent on revenue from oil. However, bitumen has been discovered in the country since 1903 and has remained untapped over the years. The need for the country to complement oil exploration with the huge bitumen deposit cannot be overemphasized. This will help to improve the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and revenue available to government. Bitumen is classifled as heavy crude with API (American petroleum Institute) number ranging between 50 and 110 and occurs in Nigeria, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela etc from which petroleum products could be derived. This dissertation looked at the Canadian experience by comparing the oil and tar sand deposit found in Canada with particular reference to Athabasca (Grosmont, Wabiskaw McMurray and Nsiku) with that in Nigeria with a view of transferring process technology from Canada to Nigeria. The Nigeria and Athabasca tar sands occur in the same type of environment. These are the deltaic, fluvial marine deposit in an incised valley with similar reservoir, chemical and physical properties. However, the Nigeria tar sand is more asphaltenic and also contains more resin and as such will yield more product volume during hydro cracking albeit more acidic. The differences in the components (viscosity, resin and asphaltenes contents, sulphur and heavy metal contents) of the tar sands is within the limit of technology adaptation. Any of the technologies used in Athabasca, Canada is adaptable to Nigeria according to the findings of this research. The techno-economics of some of the process technologies are. x-rayed using the PTAC (petroleum technology alliance Canada) technology recovery model in order to obtain their unit cost for Nigeria bitumen. The unit cost of processed bitumen adopting steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), in situ combustion (ISC) and cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) process technology is 40.59, 25.00 and 44.14 Canadian dollars respectively. The unit cost in Canada using the same process technology is 57.27, 25.00 and 61.33 Canadian dollars respectively. The unit cost in Nigeria is substantively lesser than in Canada. A trade off is thereafter done using life cycle costing so as to select the best process technology for the Nigeria oil/tar sands. The net present value/internal rate of return is found to be B$3,062/36.35% for steam assisted gravity drainage, B$I,570124.51 % for cyclic steam stimulation and B$3,503/39.64% for in situ combustion. Though in situ combustion returned the highest net present value and internal rate of return, it proved not to be the best option for Nigeria due to environmental concern and response time to production. The best viable option for the Nigeria tar sand was then deemed to be steam assisted gravity drainage. An integrated oil strategy coupled with cogeneration using MSAR was also seen to considerably amplify the benefits accruable from bitumen exploration; therefore, an investment in bitumen exploration in Nigeria is a wise economic decision. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

The Nigeria economy is wholly dependent on revenue from oil. However, bitumen has been discovered in the country since 1903 and has remained untapped over the years. The need for the country to complement oil exploration with the huge bitumen deposit cannot be overemphasized. This will help to improve the country's gross domestic product (GDP) and revenue available to government. Bitumen is classifled as heavy crude with API (American petroleum Institute) number ranging between 50 and 110 and occurs in Nigeria, Canada, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela etc from which petroleum products could be derived. This dissertation looked at the Canadian experience by comparing the oil and tar sand deposit found in Canada with particular reference to Athabasca (Grosmont, Wabiskaw McMurray and Nsiku) with that in Nigeria with a view of transferring process technology from Canada to Nigeria. The Nigeria and Athabasca tar sands occur in the same type of environment. These are the deltaic, fluvial marine deposit in an incised valley with similar reservoir, chemical and physical properties. However, the Nigeria tar sand is more asphaltenic and also contains more resin and as such will yield more product volume during hydro cracking albeit more acidic. The differences in the components (viscosity, resin and asphaltenes contents, sulphur and heavy metal contents) of the tar sands is within the limit of technology adaptation. Any of the technologies used in Athabasca, Canada is adaptable to Nigeria according to the findings of this research. The techno-economics of some of the process technologies are. x-rayed using the PTAC (petroleum technology alliance Canada) technology recovery model in order to obtain their unit cost for Nigeria bitumen. The unit cost of processed bitumen adopting steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD), in situ combustion (ISC) and cyclic steam stimulation (CSS) process technology is 40.59, 25.00 and 44.14 Canadian dollars respectively. The unit cost in Canada using the same process technology is 57.27, 25.00 and 61.33 Canadian dollars respectively. The unit cost in Nigeria is substantively lesser than in Canada. A trade off is thereafter done using life cycle costing so as to select the best process technology for the Nigeria oil/tar sands. The net present value/internal rate of return is found to be B$3,062/36.35% for steam assisted gravity drainage, B$I,570124.51 % for cyclic steam stimulation and B$3,503/39.64% for in situ combustion. Though in situ combustion returned the highest net present value and internal rate of return, it proved not to be the best option for Nigeria due to environmental concern and response time to production. The best viable option for the Nigeria tar sand was then deemed to be steam assisted gravity drainage. An integrated oil strategy coupled with cogeneration using MSAR was also seen to considerably amplify the benefits accruable from bitumen exploration; therefore, an investment in bitumen exploration in Nigeria is a wise economic decision. / Thesis (M.Ing. (Development and Management))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2010.

This dissertation deals with selected areas within capital budgeting theory and practice. The first part is focused on possibilities how to improve traditional financial metrics as net present value and internal rate of return by using graphical tools for their interpretation. The main practical problem can be considered not the methodology itself, but the inability to predict future cash flows correctly. The special attention is paid to depreciation in connection with Czech accounting and tax legislation and its influence on capital decisions. The second part of the dissertation concentrates on real option analysis. The crucial difference between net present value and real options analysis is in how these methods deal with the risk. Mathematical approach is used to derive how the volatility and other parameters affect the theoretical value of an investment determined by real option. The more volatile the future cash flows are the higher theoretical value of the real option should be. Nevertheless, there are some exceptions that are analysed in this paper. In final chapter, total cost of ownership and real option analysis are used to evaluate option to switch from on-premise IT solution to cloud computing.

The goal of this thesis is to propose a suitable alternative of financing of a developer project. The thesis is divided into a theoretical - methodological part and a practical part. The theoretical/methodological part deals with the issue of developer project structuring and individual forms of financing, including the main products and procedures. The practical part is based on a comparison of individual alternatives of financing of the project in question. The author attempted to analyse the financial structure of the project and he applied financial instruments of project financing and, consequently, selected the most suitable alternative. The thesis concludes by stating the benefits that result from the outcomes of the presented proposal.