Collision avoidance systems have become an integrated part of modern vehicles and aim to avoid accidents or mitigate the crash severity for the occupant. For example, the autonomous emergency braking system influences the pre-crash state of the occupant in sitting posture, stress state, or velocity. The occupant might try to retain its posture by activating muscles, which induce muscle bracing and could counteract the movement of the occupant in the pre-crash phase.  Therefore, it is essential to study the influence of active musculature on occupant response in pre-crash and crash events. A finite element human body model (HBM) with and without closed-loop muscle activation control was used to simulate the occupant response during those events. Comparing the HBM responses & head kinematics reveal an influence of muscle bracing in the evasive braking manoeuvre. Simulating the pre-crash and in-crash phase in two stages can provide multiple benefits. However, the correlation between a single-stage simulation (baseline) and a two-stage simulation needs to be investigated. The baseline simulation uses an active HBM to model an occupant during an evasive braking manoeuvre and the muscles are deactivated when entering the frontal impact phase. The parameters of the final pre-crash state, which are needed to mimic the baseline’s response when transitioning from the pre-crash to the in-crash event are investigated in this study. For that reason, sitting position, stress state and velocity are transferred respectively to the initial passive in-crash HBM state. The simulations enabled the comparison of occupant response and calculation of cross-correlation. Each retainment strategy gave a good cross-correlation with the baseline simulation. / Kollisionsundvikande system har blivit en viktig del i moderna fordon där syftet är att undvika olyckor samt att minska allvarhetsgraden av olyckor för de åkande. Ett exempel är nödbromssystem som kan påverka den åkandes initiala tillstånd direkt före en krock som, till exempel, sittposition, spänningstillstånd, eller initial hastighet inför krock. Den åkande kan försöka att bibehålla sin hållning genom att aktivera sina muskler vilket påverkar rörelsen av dess kropp under för-krocks fasen. Det är därför viktigt att studera hur aktiva muskler påverkar rörelsen av kroppen hos den åkande under både före krocksfasen och själva krockfasen. En finit element humanmodell (HBM) med och utan reglerad muskelaktivitet används för att prediktera responsen hos den åkande i båda faserna. En jämförelse mellan simuleringarna visar att aktiva muskler kan påverka åkandekinematiken under bromsningsförloppet. Att simulera fasen före krock och fasen under krock i två steg kan medföra flera fördelar. Korrelationen mellan en enkelstegssimulering (originalsimulering) och en tvåstegssimulering måste dock studeras. Som originalsimulering används en aktiv HBM för att modellera den åkande under för-krocksfasen där den reglerade muskelaktiviteten inaktiveras under krockfasen. I denna studie undersöks den åkandes initiala tillstånd före krocken som behövs för att efterlikna originalsimulerings respons vid övergången från för-krocksfasen till krockfasen. Av den anledningen mappas det passiva HBM-tillståndet till det slutliga tillståndet av före krocksfasen för sittposition, spänningstillstånd respektive hastighet. Simuleringarna möjliggjorde en jämförelse av åkande respons och beräkning av korskorrelation. Varje mappningsstrategi gav en bra korskorrelation med originalsimuleringen.

“Vision Zero,” first adopted by Sweden in 1997, is a road safety policy that aims to achieve a transportation system having zero fatalities or serious injuries for all modes of transportation. It takes a proactive approach to road safety system by identifying risk and taking steps to prevent injuries. Historically, traffic related crashes have disproportionately impacted vulnerable communities and system users including people of color, low income individuals, seniors, children, and pedestrians, bicyclists, and transit users (who typically walk to and from public transport). These inequities are addressed in the Vision Zero framework by prioritizing interventions in areas that need safety improvements the most. In 2016, the Alexandria City Council voted unanimously to develop a “Vision Zero” policy and program as a part of its updated transportation master plan. It required an initial equity analysis to assess the impact of traffic crashes on the traditionally underserved communities / groups (groups from at least one of these categories: low-income; minority; elderly; children; limited English proficiency; persons with disabilities; and/or pedestrians/ bicyclists/ transit users). This study combines three different methods to investigate the equity issues regarding traffic safety: 1) descriptive analysis of the spatial pattern of crashes and their relationship with the demographic profiles of neighborhoods at census block group level (for 2010-2014 period); 2) descriptive analysis of the crash trends in Alexandria; and 3) exploratory regression analyses for two different units of analysis (an aggregate regression analysis of crashes at census block group, and a disaggregate regression analysis of the individual level crash reports of traffic crashes). The analysis found that the elderly, school aged children, rail/subway users, and pedestrians had a higher risk of fatalities and severe injuries in traffic crashes. Higher job densities, alcohol impairment, and speeding were significantly related to higher KSI, whereas, smaller block sizes (higher number of street segments per sq. mile area of census block group), higher housing density, and use of safety equipment were related to lower KSI. / Master of Urban and Regional Planning

Master of Science / Department of Civil Engineering / Sunanda Dissanayake / Construction of by-pass lanes at rural intersections typically has been considered a low-cost safety improvement. Safety analysis utilizes two common approaches to evaluate treatment effectiveness: before-and-after study and cross-sectional study. This research performed paired sample t-test statistical analysis to estimate changes in total of crash frequency, crash rates, EPDO crash frequency, and EPDO crash rates at intersections, three to five years after adding a by-pass lane compared to identical time period before the by-pass lane was added. Crash data between 1990 and 2011 were obtained from Kansas Crash and Analysis Record System (KCARS) maintained by the Kansas Department of Transportation (KDOT). In order to perform a cross-sectional study, intersections with by-pass lanes were compared to intersections with no countermeasures; crash data were obtained for more than 1,100 intersections in the state of Kansas. According to before-and-after study, addition of by-pass lanes improves safety at unsignalized rural intersections; crashes and their severities are reduced after adding by-pass lanes. But, these reductions are not statistically significant under 95% confidence level. However, when considering intersection related crashes, a statistically significant reduction in crash rates is happened after adding by-pass lanes at 3-legged intersections. In cross-sectional study, crashes and their severities are lower at 3-legged intersections with the by-pass lanes versus 3-legged intersections without the by-pass lanes. However, these reductions are not statistically significant under 95% confidence level. When considering 300 feet intersection crash box, statistically significant reductions are happened at 4-legged intersection. In contrast, crashes and their severities increased at 4-legged intersections with the by-pass lanes, but these changes are not statistically significant under 95% confidence level. The Crash Modification Factors were calculated to evaluate safety effectiveness of adding by-pass lanes at unsignalized rural intersections. The calculated CMFs less than 1.0, indicate a reduction in crashes after implementation of by-pass lanes. Finally, this study concluded that expected crashes at intersections with by-pass lanes are lower than intersections without by-pass lanes.

The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i.e., stock returns) of the following Great Depression.

Division One: “Malthus Gets Fat” (Two Chapters) Chapter One develops a simple dynamic model to examine the takeoff from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It finds that several factors, most notably the rate of technological progress and the economic structure, determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. It is only when this maximum sustainable rate exceeds the peak rate at which a society expands that takeoff can occur. I also investigate the effects of trade and international income transfers on the ability to sustain takeoff. It is also shown that present income growth is not necessarily indicative of the ability to sustain takeoff and that factors which increase current income growth may actually inhibit takeoff, and vice versa. Chapter Two applies the sustainable population growth framework to Britain during the Industrial Revolution. The model shows a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production. At least until the middle of the 19th Century, coal, capital and trade played a minor role. Division Two: “Leverage and Financial Market Instability” (Four Chapters) Chapter One develops a model of how leverage induces explosive behavior in financial markets. I show that when levered investors become too large relative to the market as a whole, the demand curve for securities can suddenly become upward-sloping as levered investors are exposed to forced liquidations. The size and leverage of all levered investors defines the minimum elasticity-adjusted market size for stability or MinEAMASS, which is the smallest elasticity-adjusted market size that can support the group of levered investors analyzed. This gives rise to a measure of instability that can predict when markets become vulnerable to a leverage-driven market liquidity crisis. Chapter Two iterates the model of Chapter One forward in time to generate an inflating bubble that suddenly bursts, reproducing many of Kindleberger's (1996) stylized facts about the dynamics of bubbles in a simple framework. Chapter Three applies my measure of instability in a historical investigation of the 1998 demise of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). I find that a forced liquidation of LTCM threatened to destabilize some financial markets, particularly for bank funding and equity volatility. Chapter Four discusses how the model applied to the stock market crash of 1929. There the evidence suggests that a tightening of margin requirements in the first nine months of 1929 combined with price declines in September and early October caused enough investors to become constrained that the market was tipped into instability, triggering the sudden crash of October and November.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Civil Engineering / Sunanda Dissanayake / Young drivers have elevated motor vehicle crash rates compared to other drivers. This dissertation investigated characteristics, contributory causes, and factors which increase the injury severity of young driver crashes in Kansas by comparing them with more experienced drivers. Crash data were obtained from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Young drivers were divided into two groups: 15-19 years (teen) and 20-24 years (young adult) for a detailed investigation. Using data from 2006 to 2009, frequencies, percentages, and crash rates were calculated for each characteristic and contributory cause. Contingency table analysis and odds ratios (OR) analysis were carried out to identify overly represented factors of young-driver crashes compared to experienced drivers. Young drivers were more likely to be involved in crashes due to failure to yield-right-of way, disregarding traffic signs/signals, turning, or lane changing, compared to experienced drivers. Ordered logistic regression models were developed to identify severity affecting factors in young driver crashes. According to model results, factors that decreased injury severity of the driver were seat belt use, driving at low speeds, driving newer vehicles, and driving with an adult passenger. The models also showed that alcohol involvement, driving on high-posted-speed-limit roadways, ejection at the time of crash, and trapping at the time of crash can increase young drivers’ injury severity. Based on identified critical factors, countermeasure ideas were suggested to improve the safety of young drivers. It is important for teen drivers and parents/guardians to gain better understanding about these critical factors that are helpful in preventing crashes and minimizing driving risk. Parents/guardians can consider high-risk conditions such as driving during dark, during weekends, on rural roads, on wet road surfaces, and on roadways with high speed limits, for planning teen driving. Protective devices, crash-worthy cars, and safer road infrastructures, such as rumble strips, and forgiving roadsides, will particularly reduce young drivers’ risk. Predictable traffic situations and low complexity resulting from improved road infrastructure are beneficial for young drivers. The effectiveness of Kansas Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) system needs to be investigated in the future.

Denna studie undersöker huruvida den faktiska avkastningen för ett flygbolags aktie skiljer sig från den förväntade avkastningen i samband med att ett av flygbolagets plan kraschar. För att undersöka förekomsten av abnormal avkastning genomförs en eventstudie där 71 flygplanskrascher mellan åren 1980 till och med 2018 undersöks. Resultatet visar att det förekommer en genomsnittlig kumulativ avvikelseavkastning på -4,65% dagen då kraschen sker inklusive nästkommande dag, vilken är statistiskt signifikant på 1%. Vidare har antalet dödsfall som en flygplanskrasch orsakar en statistiskt signifikant påverkan på sambandet med styrkan 1%, där fler dödsfall resulterar i en större negativ kumulativ abnormal avkastning.

Quando ocorre uma colisão, o comportamento estrutural de veículos, componentes ou sistemas mecânicos é analisado através de um parâmetro chamado crashworthiness, conceituado como a capacidade ou habilidade de uma estrutura, ou parte dela, de absorver energia cinética (resultante de impacto) e manter o colapso sob controle, mantendo a integridade no espaço do(s) ocupante(s). Este parâmetro pode também ser determinado para outro tipo de estruturas, como por exemplo, dispositivos de armazenamento de material (containers). Esta dissertação apresenta uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crashworthiness e o comportamento de estruturas quando submetidas a ensaios de impacto. Apresentam-se conceitos, histórico, evolução e principais áreas envolvidas. Destaca-se a utilização de programas de modelamento por elementos finitos na simulação e análise de colisão. Simula-se e analisa-se o impacto de modelos simplificados de container, típicos para o armazenamento de material radioativo, em queda livre contra uma superfície rígida, utilizando o software de elementos finitos ANSYS/LS-DYNA numa análise dinâmica explícita, apresentando-se resultados e conclusões e sugestões para trabalhos futuros. / The structural behavior of a vehicle or a mechanical system during collision is a very complex event. To analyze this behavior it's necessary to submit them to crash tests. These tests are made for the determination of the structure behavior and measure the kinetic energy absorption capability of a structure produced during a collision. This parameter is known as crashworthiness. In this work it is made a bibliographical review about crashworthiness and the behavior of structures under impact tests. Also, concepts, historical, evolution and the main involved areas are presented. The use of software's of finite elements in modeling and analyze of impact tests its highlighted. The drop test of a model of container, typical to storage of radioactive waste, is performed using the software of finite element ANSYS/LS-DYNA in an explicit analysis. Results, conclusions and comments for futures works are presented.

O presente trabalho visa o estudo e avaliação de diversos modelos de falha através de ensaios experimentais e análises numéricas. A caracterização do material foi feita por meio de ensaios de tração de espécimes com e sem entalhe e de cisalhamento, para prover dados em uma ampla faixa de triaxialidade. A calibração dos parâmetros necessários para cada modelo de falha ocorreu através da obtenção das componentes de tensões e de deformações na região de ruptura, obtidas por meio de análises numéricas destes ensaios. O critério da máxima deformação plástica equivalente, modelo de dano de Johnson-Cook e critério da máxima tensão cisalhante foram aplicados em um caso de impacto em pára-choque. Diversos ensaios de impacto foram realizados até a que se atingisse a ruptura satisfatória do componente. Os ensaios foram modelados em elementos finitos, através do programa comercial LS-Dyna®, sendo que os modelos de falha calibrados foram aplicados para o ensaio onde se ocorreu ruptura. Houve boa concordância entre os resultados obtidos numericamente e experimentalmente, respeitadas as observações realizadas acerca da especificidade deste caso de impacto em baixa velocidade. / The aim of the present work is an assessment of several fracture models through experiments and numerical simulations. Tensile tests with notched and unnotched specimens were carried out to provide the material characterization in a wide range of stress triaxiality. The calibration of the parameters required by the fracture models was enabled by the parallel numerical simulation of the tensile tests, providing information on the stress and strain components at the failure locus. The constant equivalent strain criterion, the Johnson-Cook failure model and the maximum shear stress failure criterion were applied in a bumper beam impact case study. Several low speed impact tests were carried out in order to result in the components rupture. Numerical simulation of the experiments was performed using commercial finite element code LS-Dyna®. Good correlation of experiments and numerical simulations was achieved when considering this particular low speed case study.

As barreiras de concreto são dispositivos utilizados como componentes de segurança em rodovias, que visam absorver o choque lateral de veículos desgovernados, propiciando sua recondução à faixa de tráfego e minimizando os danos aos ocupantes do veículo. Neste trabalho é analisado o desempenho de barreiras de concreto com o uso de modelos experimentais e numéricos baseados nas recomendações das normas brasileiras e internacionais. O estudo consiste em analisar a eficiência estática e dinâmica dessas barreiras. A análise estática engloba o estudo de distribuição de tensões na barreira considerando diferentes tipos de conectores, modo de ruptura, bem como a resistência desses conectores através de ensaios experimentais. Os ensaios são realizados de acordo com os critérios estabelecidos pela norma americana AASHTO LRFD 2012. A análise numérica, realizada com o uso de software de elementos finitos LS-DYNA©, contempla a atuação da geometria e da rigidez da barreira no processo de absorção de energia de impacto entre a barreira e o veículo, a eficiência do seu redirecionamento e adequação para os níveis de contenção estabelecidos em normas internacionais. Os resultados evidenciaram que a geometria da barreira é um fator importante para o desempenho da mesma, e, também que o uso de conectores em barreiras temporárias são primordiais para o bom funcionamento do sistema de contenção. / Concrete barriers are devices used as safety components in roads, which aim at absorbing side impact of unguided vehicles, redirecting them to the traffic lane and minimizing damage to the vehicle occupants. The present work analyzes the performance of concrete barriers through experimental and numerical models based on the recommendations of the Brazilian and international standards. The study consists in analyzing the static and dynamic efficiency of these barriers. The static analysis includes determining the stress distribution and yield lines in the barrier for different types of connectors, as well as studying the resistance of these connectors by performing experimental tests; these tests were conducted according to the criteria established by the American Standard AASHTO LRFD 2012. The numerical analysis, conducted with the commercial finite element software LS-DYNA©, evaluates the effect of geometry and stiffness of the barrier on the energy absorption performance., efficiency in redirecting the vehicles and suitability for providing restraint levels established in international standards. The results showed that the geometry of the barrier is an important factor for the barrier performance. In addition, the use of connectors in temporary barriers is essential for the smooth operation of the containment system.