The 1929 stock market crash on Black Thursday, followed by the subsequent four-year period of extreme economic downturn, signifies an extremely profound piece of U.S. history. During this time, global economic productivity – measured by GDP – decreased while the U.S. unemployment rate increased staggeringly. Leveraging construction permits as a forward-looking measure of economic activity, I empirically evaluate the effect of construction permits – specifically, the lagged growth rate of monthly construction permits – and lagged monthly stock returns on monthly Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) stock returns. Lagged construction permit returns and lagged stock returns provide early indications (i.e., stock returns) of the following Great Depression.

Division One: “Malthus Gets Fat” (Two Chapters) Chapter One develops a simple dynamic model to examine the takeoff from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It finds that several factors, most notably the rate of technological progress and the economic structure, determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without declining living standards; this is termed maximum sustainable population growth. It is only when this maximum sustainable rate exceeds the peak rate at which a society expands that takeoff can occur. I also investigate the effects of trade and international income transfers on the ability to sustain takeoff. It is also shown that present income growth is not necessarily indicative of the ability to sustain takeoff and that factors which increase current income growth may actually inhibit takeoff, and vice versa. Chapter Two applies the sustainable population growth framework to Britain during the Industrial Revolution. The model shows a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production. At least until the middle of the 19th Century, coal, capital and trade played a minor role. Division Two: “Leverage and Financial Market Instability” (Four Chapters) Chapter One develops a model of how leverage induces explosive behavior in financial markets. I show that when levered investors become too large relative to the market as a whole, the demand curve for securities can suddenly become upward-sloping as levered investors are exposed to forced liquidations. The size and leverage of all levered investors defines the minimum elasticity-adjusted market size for stability or MinEAMASS, which is the smallest elasticity-adjusted market size that can support the group of levered investors analyzed. This gives rise to a measure of instability that can predict when markets become vulnerable to a leverage-driven market liquidity crisis. Chapter Two iterates the model of Chapter One forward in time to generate an inflating bubble that suddenly bursts, reproducing many of Kindleberger's (1996) stylized facts about the dynamics of bubbles in a simple framework. Chapter Three applies my measure of instability in a historical investigation of the 1998 demise of hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM). I find that a forced liquidation of LTCM threatened to destabilize some financial markets, particularly for bank funding and equity volatility. Chapter Four discusses how the model applied to the stock market crash of 1929. There the evidence suggests that a tightening of margin requirements in the first nine months of 1929 combined with price declines in September and early October caused enough investors to become constrained that the market was tipped into instability, triggering the sudden crash of October and November.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Civil Engineering / Sunanda Dissanayake / Young drivers have elevated motor vehicle crash rates compared to other drivers. This dissertation investigated characteristics, contributory causes, and factors which increase the injury severity of young driver crashes in Kansas by comparing them with more experienced drivers. Crash data were obtained from the Kansas Department of Transportation. Young drivers were divided into two groups: 15-19 years (teen) and 20-24 years (young adult) for a detailed investigation. Using data from 2006 to 2009, frequencies, percentages, and crash rates were calculated for each characteristic and contributory cause. Contingency table analysis and odds ratios (OR) analysis were carried out to identify overly represented factors of young-driver crashes compared to experienced drivers. Young drivers were more likely to be involved in crashes due to failure to yield-right-of way, disregarding traffic signs/signals, turning, or lane changing, compared to experienced drivers. Ordered logistic regression models were developed to identify severity affecting factors in young driver crashes. According to model results, factors that decreased injury severity of the driver were seat belt use, driving at low speeds, driving newer vehicles, and driving with an adult passenger. The models also showed that alcohol involvement, driving on high-posted-speed-limit roadways, ejection at the time of crash, and trapping at the time of crash can increase young drivers’ injury severity. Based on identified critical factors, countermeasure ideas were suggested to improve the safety of young drivers. It is important for teen drivers and parents/guardians to gain better understanding about these critical factors that are helpful in preventing crashes and minimizing driving risk. Parents/guardians can consider high-risk conditions such as driving during dark, during weekends, on rural roads, on wet road surfaces, and on roadways with high speed limits, for planning teen driving. Protective devices, crash-worthy cars, and safer road infrastructures, such as rumble strips, and forgiving roadsides, will particularly reduce young drivers’ risk. Predictable traffic situations and low complexity resulting from improved road infrastructure are beneficial for young drivers. The effectiveness of Kansas Graduated Driver Licensing (GDL) system needs to be investigated in the future.

Denna studie undersöker huruvida den faktiska avkastningen för ett flygbolags aktie skiljer sig från den förväntade avkastningen i samband med att ett av flygbolagets plan kraschar. För att undersöka förekomsten av abnormal avkastning genomförs en eventstudie där 71 flygplanskrascher mellan åren 1980 till och med 2018 undersöks. Resultatet visar att det förekommer en genomsnittlig kumulativ avvikelseavkastning på -4,65% dagen då kraschen sker inklusive nästkommande dag, vilken är statistiskt signifikant på 1%. Vidare har antalet dödsfall som en flygplanskrasch orsakar en statistiskt signifikant påverkan på sambandet med styrkan 1%, där fler dödsfall resulterar i en större negativ kumulativ abnormal avkastning.

Quando ocorre uma colisão, o comportamento estrutural de veículos, componentes ou sistemas mecânicos é analisado através de um parâmetro chamado crashworthiness, conceituado como a capacidade ou habilidade de uma estrutura, ou parte dela, de absorver energia cinética (resultante de impacto) e manter o colapso sob controle, mantendo a integridade no espaço do(s) ocupante(s). Este parâmetro pode também ser determinado para outro tipo de estruturas, como por exemplo, dispositivos de armazenamento de material (containers). Esta dissertação apresenta uma revisão bibliográfica sobre crashworthiness e o comportamento de estruturas quando submetidas a ensaios de impacto. Apresentam-se conceitos, histórico, evolução e principais áreas envolvidas. Destaca-se a utilização de programas de modelamento por elementos finitos na simulação e análise de colisão. Simula-se e analisa-se o impacto de modelos simplificados de container, típicos para o armazenamento de material radioativo, em queda livre contra uma superfície rígida, utilizando o software de elementos finitos ANSYS/LS-DYNA numa análise dinâmica explícita, apresentando-se resultados e conclusões e sugestões para trabalhos futuros. / The structural behavior of a vehicle or a mechanical system during collision is a very complex event. To analyze this behavior it's necessary to submit them to crash tests. These tests are made for the determination of the structure behavior and measure the kinetic energy absorption capability of a structure produced during a collision. This parameter is known as crashworthiness. In this work it is made a bibliographical review about crashworthiness and the behavior of structures under impact tests. Also, concepts, historical, evolution and the main involved areas are presented. The use of software's of finite elements in modeling and analyze of impact tests its highlighted. The drop test of a model of container, typical to storage of radioactive waste, is performed using the software of finite element ANSYS/LS-DYNA in an explicit analysis. Results, conclusions and comments for futures works are presented.

O presente trabalho visa o estudo e avaliação de diversos modelos de falha através de ensaios experimentais e análises numéricas. A caracterização do material foi feita por meio de ensaios de tração de espécimes com e sem entalhe e de cisalhamento, para prover dados em uma ampla faixa de triaxialidade. A calibração dos parâmetros necessários para cada modelo de falha ocorreu através da obtenção das componentes de tensões e de deformações na região de ruptura, obtidas por meio de análises numéricas destes ensaios. O critério da máxima deformação plástica equivalente, modelo de dano de Johnson-Cook e critério da máxima tensão cisalhante foram aplicados em um caso de impacto em pára-choque. Diversos ensaios de impacto foram realizados até a que se atingisse a ruptura satisfatória do componente. Os ensaios foram modelados em elementos finitos, através do programa comercial LS-Dyna®, sendo que os modelos de falha calibrados foram aplicados para o ensaio onde se ocorreu ruptura. Houve boa concordância entre os resultados obtidos numericamente e experimentalmente, respeitadas as observações realizadas acerca da especificidade deste caso de impacto em baixa velocidade. / The aim of the present work is an assessment of several fracture models through experiments and numerical simulations. Tensile tests with notched and unnotched specimens were carried out to provide the material characterization in a wide range of stress triaxiality. The calibration of the parameters required by the fracture models was enabled by the parallel numerical simulation of the tensile tests, providing information on the stress and strain components at the failure locus. The constant equivalent strain criterion, the Johnson-Cook failure model and the maximum shear stress failure criterion were applied in a bumper beam impact case study. Several low speed impact tests were carried out in order to result in the components rupture. Numerical simulation of the experiments was performed using commercial finite element code LS-Dyna®. Good correlation of experiments and numerical simulations was achieved when considering this particular low speed case study.

As barreiras de concreto são dispositivos utilizados como componentes de segurança em rodovias, que visam absorver o choque lateral de veículos desgovernados, propiciando sua recondução à faixa de tráfego e minimizando os danos aos ocupantes do veículo. Neste trabalho é analisado o desempenho de barreiras de concreto com o uso de modelos experimentais e numéricos baseados nas recomendações das normas brasileiras e internacionais. O estudo consiste em analisar a eficiência estática e dinâmica dessas barreiras. A análise estática engloba o estudo de distribuição de tensões na barreira considerando diferentes tipos de conectores, modo de ruptura, bem como a resistência desses conectores através de ensaios experimentais. Os ensaios são realizados de acordo com os critérios estabelecidos pela norma americana AASHTO LRFD 2012. A análise numérica, realizada com o uso de software de elementos finitos LS-DYNA©, contempla a atuação da geometria e da rigidez da barreira no processo de absorção de energia de impacto entre a barreira e o veículo, a eficiência do seu redirecionamento e adequação para os níveis de contenção estabelecidos em normas internacionais. Os resultados evidenciaram que a geometria da barreira é um fator importante para o desempenho da mesma, e, também que o uso de conectores em barreiras temporárias são primordiais para o bom funcionamento do sistema de contenção. / Concrete barriers are devices used as safety components in roads, which aim at absorbing side impact of unguided vehicles, redirecting them to the traffic lane and minimizing damage to the vehicle occupants. The present work analyzes the performance of concrete barriers through experimental and numerical models based on the recommendations of the Brazilian and international standards. The study consists in analyzing the static and dynamic efficiency of these barriers. The static analysis includes determining the stress distribution and yield lines in the barrier for different types of connectors, as well as studying the resistance of these connectors by performing experimental tests; these tests were conducted according to the criteria established by the American Standard AASHTO LRFD 2012. The numerical analysis, conducted with the commercial finite element software LS-DYNA©, evaluates the effect of geometry and stiffness of the barrier on the energy absorption performance., efficiency in redirecting the vehicles and suitability for providing restraint levels established in international standards. The results showed that the geometry of the barrier is an important factor for the barrier performance. In addition, the use of connectors in temporary barriers is essential for the smooth operation of the containment system.

Por mais que os cientistas separem e classifiquem os elementos da realidade para melhor compreendê-la, ele preserva a sua natureza complexa e multidisciplinar. O mesmo raciocínio pode ser aplicado aos conflitos. A sociedade de massa, por sua vez, potencializou o surgimento de conflitos complexos. As peculiaridades e os diferentes aspectos destas situações tornam improvável que sejam adequadamente tratados e solucionados por mecanismos genéricos. Considerando isso e em uma perspectiva de meios adequados de solução de conflito, o método do desenho de sistemas de solução de conflito (Dispute System Design DSD) propõe que sejam criados sistemas personalizados a partir de princípios e técnicas. Dessa forma, seriam dadas as respostas processuais aos diferentes aspectos do conflito. Com o intuito de analisar a aplicação dos princípios e técnicas do DSD à realidade, estudar-se-ão os casos da Câmara de Indenização Voo 3054 (CI3054) e do Programa de Indenização Voo 447 (PI447). Estes sistemas tinham como escopo solucionar os conflitos provenientes de acidentes aéreos que ocorreram em 2007 e 2009, com aeronaves das companhias TAM e Air France, respectivamente. Nas duas tragédias não houve sobreviventes. / Although the scientists separate and classify the elements of reality to understand it better, it preserves its complex and multidisciplinary nature. The same reasoning can be applied to conflicts. The mass society, in its turn, increased the emergence of complex conflicts. The peculiarity and the different aspects of these situations makes it unlikely to be adequately processed and solved by generic mechanisms. Considering this and the perspective of adequate conflict resolution, the Dispute System Design - DSD suggests that custom systems can be created from principles and technical. Therefore would be given the procedural responses to the different aspects of the conflict. In order to examine the application of the principles and techniques of DSD to reality, will be studied the cases of the Câmara de Indenização Voo 3054 (CI3054) and Programa de Indenização Voo 447 (PI447). These systems were scoped to resolve conflicts arising from plane crashes that occurred in 2007 and 2009, with TAM and Air France aircraft. In the two tragedies there were no survivors.

Since before the release of the Highway Safety Manual research has been indicating the need to incorporate mobility and control aspects to road safety analysis. The first part of this work developed and implement in an existing computational engine a signal timing optimization method that considers mobility, safety, and emissions measures simultaneously. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to provide insight on the practical effects and order of relevance of 20 key input variables. Mobility improvement performance usually coincides with emissions improvements, but sometimes at the expense of safety. The second part of this work investigated the relationship between hourly traffic density and crash rates on Brazilian expressways with different characteristics, based on a database containing over 20,000 crashes and more than 35 million traffic volume observations and. The resulting curves for urban expressways follow a U shape, with minimum values associated with LOS B to C, while the relationships for rural expressways were found to be continuously increasing, suggesting that low volume rural roads are safer than the higher volume ones. The analysis of other influencing factors revealed that nighttime conditions, weaving segments and urban multilane highways could be related to higher crash rates. The third part of the project extends the analysis to crash severity modeling, using an ordered response choice model. The framework that better fit this database led to the development of two different models: single-vehicle crashes (SV) and multiple-vehicle crashes (MV), since the factors that explain the severity of crashes varies widely between these models. For instance, guardrails and barriers proved to effectively reduce severity for SV crashes, for which run-offs are the most severe crash type. The unique database used in this study also allowed for an investigation of the influence of prevailing traffic conditions on crash severity, while still controlling for all other factors. The results suggested that multiple-vehicle crash severity is negatively related with traffic density, while single-vehicle crashes are more closely related to speed. The findings of this work have implications to policy and design decisions, and the produced equation could be incorporated to active traffic management (ATM) and HCM reliability analysis. / Desde antes da publicação do Highway Safety Manual, vários pesquisadores indicam a necessidade de se incorporar aspectos de operação de tráfego à análise de segurança viária. A primeira parte deste trabalho desenvolveu e implementou em uma ferramenta computacional existente um método de otimização de tempos semafóricos que considera medidas de desempenho de operação, segurança e emissões simultaneamente. Uma análise de sensibilidade foi realizada para produzir conhecimento sobre os efeitos práticos e a ordem de relevância de 20 variáveis de entrada principais. O desempenho da programação semafórica em termos de redução dos atrasos geralmente coincide com redução das emissões, embora às vezes às custas da segurança. A segunda parte deste trabalho investigou a relação entre a densidade horária de tráfego e as taxas de acidentes em autoestradas e rodovias de pista dupla brasileiras com características diversas, com base em um banco de dados contendo mais de 20.000 registros de acidentes e mais de 35 milhões de observações de tráfego. As curvas resultantes para rodovias urbanas seguem um formato em U, com valores mínimos associados aos níveis de serviço B a C, enquanto que as relações para as rodovias rurais são contínuas e crescentes, sugerindo que rodovias rurais de baixo volume são mais seguras do que as de maior volume. A análise de outros fatores revelou que condições noturnas, segmentos de entrelaçamento e rodovias de pista dupla convencionais urbanas estariam relacionadas a maiores taxas de acidentes. A terceira parte deste projeto amplia a análise para modelagem de severidade dos acidentes, usando um modelo de escolha discreta ordenado. A estrutura que melhor se adequa a esse banco de dados levou ao desenvolvimento de dois modelos diferentes: acidentes com um veículo e acidentes com múltiplos veículos, já que os fatores que explicam a severidade dos acidentes variam muito entre esses modelos. Por exemplo, defensas e barreiras se mostraram efetivas para a redução da severidade de acidentes com um veículo, para as quais a saída de pista é o tipo de acidente mais grave. O amplo banco de dados usado neste estudo também permitiu uma investigação da influência das condições de tráfego na severidade do acidente, em comparação com todos os outros fatores. Os resultados sugeriram que a severidade de acidentes de múltiplos veículos está negativamente relacionada com a densidade de tráfego, enquanto colisões com um único veículo estão mais relacionadas à velocidade. As descobertas deste trabalho têm implicações nas decisões sobre políticas e projetos de transportes, e a equação produzida pode ser incorporada à análise de confiabilidade do gerenciamento ativo do tráfego (ATM) e do Highway Capacity Manual.

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