Quality software usually means high reliability, which in turn has two main components; the software should provide correctness, which means it should perform the specified task, and robustness in the sense that it should be able to manage unexpected situations. In other words, reliable systems are systems without bugs. Because of this, testing and debugging are recurrent and resource expensive tasks in software development, notably in large software systems. This thesis investigate the potential of using unsupervised machine learning on Ericsson bug reports to avoid unnecessary debugging by identifying duplicate bug reports. The bug report data that is considered are crash dumps from software crashes. The data is clustered using the clustering algorithms k-modes, k-prototypes and expectation maximization where-after the generated clusters are used to assign new incoming bug reports to the previously generated clusters, thus indicating whether an old bug report is similar to the newly submitted one. Due to the dataset only being partially labeled both internal and external validity indices are applied to evaluate the clustering. The results indicate that many, small clusters can be identified using the applied method. However, for the results to have high validity the methods could be applied on a larger data set. / Mjukvara av hög kvalitet innebär ofta hög tillförlitlighet, vilket i sin tur har två huvudkomponenter; mjukvaran bör vara korrekt, den ska alltså uppfylla dom specifierade kraven, och dessutom robust vilket innebär att den ska kunna hantera oväntade situationer. Med andra ord, tillförlitliga system är system utan buggar. På grund av detta är testning och felsökning återkommande och resurskrävande uppgifter inom mjukvaruutveckling, i synnerhet för stora mjukvarusystem. Detta arbete utforskar vilken potential oövervakad maskininlärning på Ericssons felrapporter har för att undvika onödig felsökning genom att identifiera felrapporter som är dubletter. Felrapporterna som används i detta arbete innehåller data som sparats i minnet vid en mjukvarukrasch. Data klustras sedan med klustringsalgoritmerna k-modes, k-prototypes och expectation maximization varpå dom genererade klustren används för att tilldela nya inkommande felrapporter till de tidigare generade klustren, för att på så sätt kunna identifiera om en gammal felrapport är lik en ny felrapport. Då de felrapporter som behandlas endast till viss del redan är märkta som dubletter används både externa och interna valideringsmått för att utvärdera klustringen. Resultaten tyder på att många, små kluster kunde identifieras med de använda metoderna. Dock skulle metoderna behöva appliceras på ett dataset med större antal felrapporter för att resultaten ska få hög validitet.

No / The widespread protests of November 2019 may be marked as the bloodiest recent chapter of the Islamic Republic of Iran's history in terms of popular dissent. The two major protests in December 2017 and November 2019, followed by the public reaction to the shooting down of the Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 by the IRGC over Tehran after the US killing of General Soleimani, suggest that the prevailing dynamics of political protest in Iran are changing. There is an increasing sense of radicalisation among protesters, while the state is prepared to resort to extreme violence to maintain control. The geography of political protest has changed. The declining economic situation has had a profound impact on the more vulnerable segments of the society who are now increasingly playing a more proactive role in challenging the state. The methods of protest have been evolving over the last four decades, especially in the cultural arena. Last but not least, the willingness of the protesters both to endure and inflict violence is precipitously transforming state-society relations beyond recognition. This article begins by providing a brief overview of protest in the history of the Islamic Republic, up to the public reaction to the 2020 downing of the Ukrainian airline over Tehran. This provides a historical context to assess the ways in which both the political climate and protests have changed over the last four decades. A section identifying and analysing the factors which have created the current political cul-de-sac then follows. The changing dynamics of the protests are the result of the existing political gridlock and the economic crisis, and it is thus important to evaluate the prevailing conditions which have paved the way for the radicalisation of political climate in Iran. The final section examines the changing dynamics of political protest.

Active safety systems that warn automobile drivers of various types of impending collisions have been developed. How these systems alert drivers when integrated, however, is a crucial component to their effectiveness that hinges on the consideration of human factors. Drivers' ability to comprehend multiple alerts presented through a haptic driver seat was investigated in this dissertation. Twenty-four participants, balanced for age and gender, drove an instrumented vehicle on a test-track while haptic alerts (vibrations in the driver seat) were generated. Drivers' ability to transmit the information conveyed by the alerts was investigated through two experiments. The first experiment investigated the effects of increasing the number of potential alerts on drivers' response performance. The second experiment investigated whether presenting haptic alerts through unique versus common locations in the driver seat affects drivers' response performance. Younger drivers (between the ages of 18 and 25 years old) were found to efficiently process the increased information contained in the alerts, while older drivers were not as efficient. However, it is foreseeable that older driver performance decrements may be assuaged when a crash context is provided. A third experiment evaluated the haptic driver seat's ability to alert distracted drivers to an actual crash threat. Drivers that received a haptic seat alert returned their gaze to the forward roadway sooner, removed their foot from the throttle sooner, pressed the brake pedal sooner, and stopped farther away from an inflatable barricade than drivers that did not receive a haptic seat alert. No age or gender effects were found in this experiment. Furthermore, half of the drivers that received the haptic seat alert lifted up on the throttle before returning their eyes to the forward roadway. This suggests these drivers developed an automatic response to the haptic seat alerts through their experience with the previous two experiments. A three-alert haptic seat approach, the intermediate alternative tested, is recommended providing specific design requirements are met. / Ph. D.

La nouvelle génération de revêtement métallique à base de zinc, aluminium et magnésium (ZM) développée par ArcelorMittal permet une meilleure résistance à la corrosion pour une épaisseur plus faible que les aciers galvanisés standard du type GI. Toutefois, leur homologation pour l’utilisation dans des assemblages collés dans le secteur automobile pose problème car, contrairement au système adhésif crash/GI, des ruptures adhésives sont observées lors du test de traction-cisaillement d’un assemblage adhésif crash/ZM. Ce travail a visé à comprendre la ou les raison(s) de ces ruptures adhésives afin de proposer des solutions industrielles pour y remédier. Pour cela, une stratégie multi-technique et multi-échelle (XPS, IRRAS, Raman, AFM, …) a été mise au point afin de caractériser la surface métallique et ses oxydes, les interactions de ces derniers et les composants réactifs de l’adhésif à savoir la résine (DGEBA) et le durcisseur (DDA), et le système complet adhésif/ZM. Nous avons montré que la chimie de surface du ZM est bien plus complexe que celle du GI et est dominée par des phases riches en magnésium et très peu par des oxydes/hydroxydes de zinc contrairement au GI d’où une réactivité différente vis-à-vis de la DGEBA et la DDA. En particulier le piégeage de la DDA par interaction avec le magnésium perturbe la réticulation dans une interphase chimique ainsi que l’interaction du réseau polymérique avec la silice colloïdale et les charges à base de calcium dans une interphase mécanique affaiblissant la mécanique d’ancrage de l’adhésif. Divers solutions telles que l’application d’un traitement de surface sont proposées pour remédier à cet effet négatif du magnésium / New generation of metallic coatings based on zinc, aluminum and magnesium chemistry (ZM) developed by ArcelorMittal allows a higher corrosion resistance with a thinner layer than standard galvanized steel GI. However, its homologation for bonding structure application in automobile sector is a problem because of observation of adhesive failure after lap shear test with crash adhesive unlike GI coatings. This work’s aim is to understand the reason(s) behind the adhesive failure in order to resolve this problem by proposing industrial solutions. Thus, a multi-technical and multi-scale strategy (XPS, IRRAS, Raman, AFM,… ) was developed to characterize the metallic surface and its oxides, interactions between these oxides and the reactive components of the adhesive, namely the epoxide resin (DGEBA) and the hardener (DDA) and finally the whole system, i.e. ZM/adhesive. It was demonstrated that ZM surface chemistry is far more complex than GI surface chemistry and is dominated by rich magnesium phases and low in zinc oxides/hydroxides unlike GI leading to a different reactivity towards DGEBA and DDA. In particular, the DDA trapping by interaction with magnesium disrupts reticulation process in a chemical interphase and interaction of the polymeric network with colloidal silica and mineral fillers (calcium types) in a mechanical interphase which is weakening the adhesive mechanical anchoring. Several solutions like application of surface treatments can be proposed to solve the negative effect of magnesium

This study examines the relationship between company management guidance, and ex-ante crash risk over the duration of 2008(Jan 2006-Dec 2009) financial crisis using the implied volatility skew, which is based upon ex-ante volatility implied by the pricing model developed by Black-Scholes (1973). The study finds that over the duration of this crisis period, management guidance decreases with a rise in ex-ante crash risk. Further, the study provides evidence on the relationship of management guidance and earnings volatility, and how that is affected by a firm's industry product concentration based on the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) score.

No description available.

The unavailability of crash-related data has been a long lasting challenge in Brazil. In addition to the poor implementation and follow-up of road safety strategies, this drawback has hampered the development of studies that could contribute to national goals toward road safety. In contrast, developed countries have built their effective strategies on solid data basis, therefore, investing a considerable time and money in obtaining and creating pertinent information. In this research, we aim to assess the potential impacts of supplementary data on spatial model performance and the suitability of different spatial modeling approaches on crash prediction. The intention is to notify the authorities in Brazil and other developing countries, about the importance of having appropriate data. In this thesis, we set two specific objectives: (I) to investigate the spatial model prediction accuracy at unsampled subzones; (II) to evaluate the performance of spatial data analysis approaches on crash prediction. Firstly, we carry out a benchmarking based on Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models developed for Flanders, Belgium, and São Paulo, Brazil. Models are developed for two modes of transport: active (i.e. pedestrians and cyclists) and motorized transport (i.e. motorized vehicles occupants). Subsequently, we apply the repeated holdout method on the Flemish models, introducing two GWR validation approaches, named GWR holdout1 and GWR holdout2. While the former is based on the local coefficient estimates derived from the neighboring subzones and measures of the explanatory variables for the validation subzones, the latter uses the casualty estimates of the neighboring subzones directly to estimate outcomes for the missing subzones. Lastly, we compare the performance of GWR models with Mean Imputation (MEI), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). Findings showed that by adding the supplementary data, reductions of 20% and 25% for motorized transport, and 25% and 35% for active transport resulted in corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE), respectively. From a practical perspective, the results could help us identify hotspots and prioritize data collection strategies besides identify, implement and enforce appropriate countermeasures. Concerning the spatial approaches, GWR holdout2 out performed all other techniques and proved that GWR is an appropriate spatial technique for both prediction and impact analyses. Especially in countries where data availability has been an issue, this validation framework allows casualties or crash frequencies to be estimated while effectively capturing the spatial variation of the data. / A indisponibilidade de variáveis explicativas de acidentes de trânsito tem sido um desafio duradouro no Brasil. Além da má implementação e acompanhamento de estratégias de segurança viária, esse inconveniente tem dificultado o desenvolvimento de estudos que poderiam contribuir com as metas nacionais de segurança no trânsito. Em contraste, países desenvolvidos tem construído suas estratégias efetivas com base em dados sólidos, e portanto, investindo tempo e dinheiro consideráveis na obtenção e criação de informações pertinentes. O objetivo dessa pesquisa é avaliar os possíveis impactos de dados suplementares sobre o desempenho de modelos espaciais, e a adequação de diferentes abordagens de modelagem espacial na previsão de acidentes. A intenção é notificar as autoridades brasileiras e de outros países em desenvolvimento sobre a importância de dados adequados. Nesta tese, foram definidos dois objetivos específicos: (I) investigar a acurácia do modelo espacial em subzonas sem amostragem; (II) avaliar o desempenho de técnicas de análise espacial de dados na previsão de acidentes. Primeiramente, foi realizado um estudo comparativo, baseado em modelos desenvolvidos para Flandres (Bélgica) e São Paulo (Brasil), através do método de Regressão Geograficamente Ponderada (RGP). Os modelos foram desenvolvidos para dois modos de transporte: ativos (pedestres e ciclistas) e motorizados (ocupantes de veículos motorizados). Subsequentemente, foi aplicado o método de holdout repetido nos modelos Flamengos, introduzindo duas abordagens de validação para GWR, denominados RGP holdout1 e RGP holdout2. Enquanto o primeiro é baseado nas estimativas de coeficientes locais derivados das subzonas vizinhas e medidas das variáveis explicativas para as subzonas de validação, o último usa as estimativas de acidentes das subzonas vizinhas, diretamente, para estimar os resultados para as subzonas ausentes. Por fim, foi comparado o desempenho de modelos RGP e outras abordagens, tais como Imputação pela Média de dados faltantes (IM), K-vizinhos mais próximos (KNN) e Krigagem com Deriva Externa (KDE). Os resultados mostraram que, adicionando os dados suplementares, reduções de 20% e 25% para o transporte motorizado, e 25% e 35% para o transporte ativo, foram resultantes em termos de Critério de Informação de Akaike corrigido (AICc) e Erro Quadrático Médio da Predição (EQMP), respectivamente. Do ponto de vista prático, os resultados poderiam ajudar a identificar hotspots e priorizar estratégias de coleta de dados, além de identificar, implementar e aplicar contramedidas adequadas. No que diz respeito às abordagens espaciais, RGP holdout2 teve melhor desempenho em relação a todas as outras técnicas e, provou que a RGP é uma técnica espacial apropriada para ambas as análises de previsão e impactos. Especialmente em países onde a disponibilidade de dados tem sido um problema, essa estrutura de validação permite que as acidentes sejam estimados enquanto, capturando efetivamente a variação espacial dos dados.

The unavailability of crash-related data has been a long lasting challenge in Brazil. In addition to the poor implementation and follow-up of road safety strategies, this drawback has hampered the development of studies that could contribute to national goals toward road safety. In contrast, developed countries have built their effective strategies on solid data basis, therefore, investing a considerable time and money in obtaining and creating pertinent information. In this research, we aim to assess the potential impacts of supplementary data on spatial model performance and the suitability of different spatial modeling approaches on crash prediction. The intention is to notify the authorities in Brazil and other developing countries, about the importance of having appropriate data. In this thesis, we set two specific objectives: (I) to investigate the spatial model prediction accuracy at unsampled subzones; (II) to evaluate the performance of spatial data analysis approaches on crash prediction. Firstly, we carry out a benchmarking based on Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) models developed for Flanders, Belgium, and São Paulo, Brazil. Models are developed for two modes of transport: active (i.e. pedestrians and cyclists) and motorized transport (i.e. motorized vehicles occupants). Subsequently, we apply the repeated holdout method on the Flemish models, introducing two GWR validation approaches, named GWR holdout1 and GWR holdout2. While the former is based on the local coefficient estimates derived from the neighboring subzones and measures of the explanatory variables for the validation subzones, the latter uses the casualty estimates of the neighboring subzones directly to estimate outcomes for the missing subzones. Lastly, we compare the performance of GWR models with Mean Imputation (MEI), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Kriging with External Drift (KED). Findings showed that by adding the supplementary data, reductions of 20% and 25% for motorized transport, and 25% and 35% for active transport resulted in corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc) and Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE), respectively. From a practical perspective, the results could help us identify hotspots and prioritize data collection strategies besides identify, implement and enforce appropriate countermeasures. Concerning the spatial approaches, GWR holdout2 out performed all other techniques and proved that GWR is an appropriate spatial technique for both prediction and impact analyses. Especially in countries where data availability has been an issue, this validation framework allows casualties or crash frequencies to be estimated while effectively capturing the spatial variation of the data. / A indisponibilidade de variáveis explicativas de acidentes de trânsito tem sido um desafio duradouro no Brasil. Além da má implementação e acompanhamento de estratégias de segurança viária, esse inconveniente tem dificultado o desenvolvimento de estudos que poderiam contribuir com as metas nacionais de segurança no trânsito. Em contraste, países desenvolvidos tem construído suas estratégias efetivas com base em dados sólidos, e portanto, investindo tempo e dinheiro consideráveis na obtenção e criação de informações pertinentes. O objetivo dessa pesquisa é avaliar os possíveis impactos de dados suplementares sobre o desempenho de modelos espaciais, e a adequação de diferentes abordagens de modelagem espacial na previsão de acidentes. A intenção é notificar as autoridades brasileiras e de outros países em desenvolvimento sobre a importância de dados adequados. Nesta tese, foram definidos dois objetivos específicos: (I) investigar a acurácia do modelo espacial em subzonas sem amostragem; (II) avaliar o desempenho de técnicas de análise espacial de dados na previsão de acidentes. Primeiramente, foi realizado um estudo comparativo, baseado em modelos desenvolvidos para Flandres (Bélgica) e São Paulo (Brasil), através do método de Regressão Geograficamente Ponderada (RGP). Os modelos foram desenvolvidos para dois modos de transporte: ativos (pedestres e ciclistas) e motorizados (ocupantes de veículos motorizados). Subsequentemente, foi aplicado o método de holdout repetido nos modelos Flamengos, introduzindo duas abordagens de validação para GWR, denominados RGP holdout1 e RGP holdout2. Enquanto o primeiro é baseado nas estimativas de coeficientes locais derivados das subzonas vizinhas e medidas das variáveis explicativas para as subzonas de validação, o último usa as estimativas de acidentes das subzonas vizinhas, diretamente, para estimar os resultados para as subzonas ausentes. Por fim, foi comparado o desempenho de modelos RGP e outras abordagens, tais como Imputação pela Média de dados faltantes (IM), K-vizinhos mais próximos (KNN) e Krigagem com Deriva Externa (KDE). Os resultados mostraram que, adicionando os dados suplementares, reduções de 20% e 25% para o transporte motorizado, e 25% e 35% para o transporte ativo, foram resultantes em termos de Critério de Informação de Akaike corrigido (AICc) e Erro Quadrático Médio da Predição (EQMP), respectivamente. Do ponto de vista prático, os resultados poderiam ajudar a identificar hotspots e priorizar estratégias de coleta de dados, além de identificar, implementar e aplicar contramedidas adequadas. No que diz respeito às abordagens espaciais, RGP holdout2 teve melhor desempenho em relação a todas as outras técnicas e, provou que a RGP é uma técnica espacial apropriada para ambas as análises de previsão e impactos. Especialmente em países onde a disponibilidade de dados tem sido um problema, essa estrutura de validação permite que as acidentes sejam estimados enquanto, capturando efetivamente a variação espacial dos dados.

Sistemas computacionais são constituídos por componentes de hardware e software que podem eventualmente falhar. Por esse motivo, o mecanismo de transação sempre foi imprescindível para a construção de sistemas robustos. O suporte transacional para a tecnologia Web services foi definido em agosto de 2005, num conjunto de três especificações denominadas WS-Coordination, WS-AtomicTransaction e WS-BusinessActivity. Juntas, essas especificações definem um alicerce sobre o qual aplicações robustas baseadas em Web services podem ser construídas. Nesta dissertação realizamos um estudo sobre transações atômicas em ambientes Web services. Em particular, estendemos o gerenciador de transações presente no servidor de aplicações JBoss, de modo que ele passasse a comportar transações distribuídas envolvendo Web services. Além disso, avaliamos o desempenho desse gerenciador de transações quando ele emprega cada um dos seguintes mecanismos de chamada remota: Web services/SOAP, CORBA/IIOP e JBoss Remoting. Finalmente, realizamos experimentos de escalabilidade e interoperabilidade. / Computing systems consist of a multitude of hardware and software components that may fail. For this reason, the transaction mechanism has always been essential for the development of robust systems. Transactional support for the Web services technology was defined in August 2005, in a set of three specifications, namely WS-Coordination, WS-AtomicTransaction, and WS-BusinessActivity. Together, such specifications enable the development of robust Web services applications. In this dissertation we studied atomic transactions in the Web services realm. Particularly, we added Web services atomic transaction support to the existing JBoss application server transaction manager. Furthermore, we evaluated the performance of this transaction manager when it employs each of the following remote method invocation mechanisms: Web services/SOAP, CORBA/IIOP and JBoss Remoting. Finally, we performed scalability and interoperability experiments.

Nous étudions des stratégies d'investissement dont l'utilisation s'est généralisée sur les marchés financiers, et leur impact sur le prix des actifs et le risque de marché.Dans le premier chapitre nous nous intéressons aux stratégies de diversification de portefeuille. Nous montronsau travers d'un modèle théorique que si la diversification a un effet positif au niveau individuel pour l'investisseur,elle crée également des liens entre les différents investisseurs et titres, qui peuvent se révéler dangereux d'un pointde vue systémique. Nous mesurons les deux effets afin de discuter de la désirabilité globale de la diversification.Le second chapitre considère les stratégies d'investissement basées sur le groupement de titres financierspartageant certaines caractéristiques en différentes classes, ou styles. Nous postulons que ces stratégies créentun co-mouvement excessif entre titres d'un même style, qui seront vendus et achetés ensemble au sein d'une mêmeclasse. Appliquant cette intuition aux notes des agences sur les obligations, nous montrons qu'une obligation quichange de note se met en effet à varier comme sa nouvelle note, même quand les fondamentaux économiques ne lejustifient pas.Dans le troisième chapitre nous étudions trois types d'investisseurs opérant sur le marché des changes : les carry traders, les chartistes et les fondamentalistes. Notre modèle théorique suggère que l'interaction entre cestrois règles d'investissement peut expliquer la déconnexion bien documentée entre le taux de change et sa valeurfondamentale, ainsi que provoquer un effondrement endogène des taux de change. / We study how popular investment rules in financial markets may induce endogenous movements inasset prices, leading to higher market risk.In the first chapter, we focus on portfolio diversification. We show through a theoretical model that this strategyis beneficial at the individual investor level, but also creates endogenous links between assets and investors, whichcan be dangerous from a systemic perspective. We measure both effects in order to discuss the overall desirabilityof diversification.The second chapter considers strategies based on grouping assets that share common characteristics intodifferent classes, or styles. We postulate that these strategies create excess comovement between assets of asimilar style, as they are traded together as part of the same class. Applying this reasoning to bond credit ratings,we show that bonds joining a new rating class indeed start comoving more with the bonds of this rating, evenwhen fundamental factors suggest otherwise.In the third chapter, we study three investors who operate in the foreign exchange market: carry traders,chartists and fundamentalists. We provide a theoretical model which suggests that the interaction between thesetrading rules may explain the well documented exchange rate disconnect from its fundamental value, and lead toendogenous currency crashes.