Recently observed cumulation of unexpected collapses of slope-distant waste dumps in lignite mining areas of eastern germany re-initiated research of soil liquefaction. Especially it turned the question of internal initials that correspond to water rise. Parallel to laboritory tests and field experiments a micromechanical model should be developed, which can reproduce processes in the soil during saturation. In first approximation a partly saturated soil consists of two phases: the soil particles and the pore fluid. For micromechanical modeling a coupling of discontinuum particles) and continuum (fluid) is required. The soil particles can be simulated with the Discrete-Element-Method (DEM). For the pore fluid, which is assumed to be a mixture of liquid and gaseous fractions, Pore scale model with Finite Volumes (PFV) is used. At low water content liquid bridges (meniscii) arise between the particles that cause an apparent cohesion. The effect of the meniscii is considered by a correspondingly contact law in the DEM model. During the saturation of a soil both, cohesive effect and fluid bulk modulus, are reduced. In addition buoyancy acts on the particles during the process. The micromechanical modeling approach has the advantage, that just a few model parameters are needed. The numerical model shows pore fluid pressures during saturation process, that leads to a reduction of effective stress. It is investigated how much the reduction is regarding porosity, degree of saturation, stress conditions and grain shape. Furthermore the influence of model parameters as well as hydromechanics is investigated. The investigations are completed with another series of experiments under special conditions like integration of macropores, horizontal fixed model boundaries and abrupt saturation.

This work is motivated by the question: how much complexity is appropriate for a cloud parameterization used in general circulation models (GCM). To approach this question, cloud parameterizations across the complexity range are explored using general circulation models and theoretical Monte-Carlo simulations. Their results are compared with high-resolution satellite observations and simulations that resolve the GCM subgrid-scale variability explicitly. A process-orientated evaluation is facilitated by GCM forecast simulations which reproduce the synoptic state. For this purpose novel methods were develop to a) conceptually relate the underlying saturation deficit probability density function (PDF) with its saturated cloudy part, b) analytically compute the vertical integrated liquid water path (LWP) variability, c) diagnose the relevant PDF-moments from cloud parameterizations, d) derive high-resolution LWP from satellite observations and e) deduce the LWP statistics by aggregating the LWP onto boxes equivalent to the GCM grid size. On this basis, this work shows that it is possible to evaluate the sub-grid scale variability of cloud parameterizations in terms of cloud variables. Differences among the PDF types increase with complexity, in particular the more advanced cloud parameterizations can make use of their double Gaussian PDF in conditions, where cumulus convection forms a separate mode with respect to the remainder of the grid-box. Therefore, it is concluded that the difference between unimodal and bimodal PDFs is more important, than the shape within each mode. However, the simulations and their evaluation reveals that the advanced parameterizations do not take full advantage of their abilities and their statistical relationships are broadly similar to less complex PDF shapes, while the results from observations and cloud resolving simulations indicate even more complex distributions. Therefore, this work suggests that the use of less complex PDF shapes might yield a better trade-off. With increasing model resolution initial weaknesses of simpler, e.g. unimodal PDFs, will be diminished. While cloud schemes for coarse-resolved models need to parameterize multiple cloud regimes per grid-box, higher spatial resolution of future GCMs will separate them better, so that the unimodal approximation improves.

The irrigated agriculture in the Lower Chenab Canal (LCC) of Pakistan is characterized by huge water utilization both from surface and groundwater resources. Need of utilization of water from five rivers in Punjab province along with accelerated population growth has forced the construction of world’s largest irrigation network. Nevertheless, huge irrigation infrastructure, together with inappropriate drainage infrastructure, led to a build-up of shal-low groundwater levels, followed by waterlogging and secondary salinization in the soil profile. Following this era, decreased efficiency of irrigation supply system along with higher food demands had increased burdens on groundwater use, which led to a drop in groundwater levels in major parts of LCC. Previous studies in the study region revealed lacking management and maintenance of irrigation system, inflexible irrigation strategies, poor linkages between field level water supply and demands. No future strategy is present or under consideration to deal with this long time emerged groundwater situation particularly under unchanged irrigation water supply and climate change. Therefore, there is an utmost importance to assess the current profile of water use in the irrigation scheme and to device some workable strategies under future situations of land use and climate change. This study aims to investigate the spatio-temporal status of water utilization and performance of irrigation system using remote sensing data and techniques (SEBAL) in combination with other point data. Different irrigation performance indicators including equity, adequacy and reliability using evaporation fraction as main input parameter are utilized. Current profiles of land use/land cover (LULC) areas are assessed and their change detections are worked out to establish realistic future scenarios. Spatially distributed seasonal net recharge, a very important input parameter for groundwater modeling, is estimated by employing water balance approaches using spatial data from remote sensing and local norms. Such recharge results are also compared with a water table fluctuation approach. Following recharge estimation, a regional 3-D groundwater flow model using FEFLOW was set up. This model was calibrated by different approaches ranging from manual to automated pilot point (PP) approach. Sensitivity analysis was performed to see the model response against different model input parameters and to identify model regions which demand further improvements. Future climate parameters were downscaled to establish scenarios by using statistical downscaling under IPCC future emission scenarios. Modified recharge raster maps were prepared under both LULC and climate change scenarios and were fed to the groundwater model to investigate groundwater dynamics. Seasonal consumptive water use analysis revealed almost double use for kharif as compared to rabi cropping seasons with decrease from upper LCC to lower regions. Intra irrigation subdivision analysis of equity, an important irrigation performance indicator, shows less differences in water consumption in LCC. However, the other indicators (adequacy and reliability) indicate that the irrigation system is neither adequate nor reliable. Adequacy is found more pronounced during kharif as compared to rabi seasons with aver-age evaporation fraction of 0.60 and 0.67, respectively. Similarly, reliability is relatively higher in upper LCC regions as compared to lower regions. LULC classification shows that wheat and rice are major crops with least volatility in cultivation from season to season. The results of change detection show that cotton exhibited maximum positive change while kharif fodder showed maximum negative change during 2005-2012. Transformation of cotton area to rice cultivation is less conspicuous. The water consumption in upper LCC regions with similar crops is relatively higher as compared to lower regions. Groundwater recharge results revealed that, during the kharif cropping seasons, rainfall is the main source of recharge followed by field percolation losses, while for rabi cropping seasons, canal seepage remains the major source. Seasonal net groundwater recharge is mainly positive during all kharif seasons with a gradual increase in groundwater level in major parts of LCC. Model optimization indicates that PP is more flexible and robust as compared to manual and zone based approaches. Different statistical indicators show that this method yields reliable calibration and validation as values of Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency are 0.976 and 0.969, % BIAS are 0.026 and -0.205 and root mean square errors are 1.23 m and 1.31 m, respectively. Results of model output sensitivity suggest that hydraulic conductivity is a more influential parameter in the study area than drain/fillable porosity. Model simulation results under different scenarios show that rice cultivation has the highest impact on groundwater levels in upper LCC regions whereas major negative changes are observed for lower parts under decreased kharif fodder area in place of rice, cotton and sugarcane. Fluctuations in groundwater level among different proposed LULC scenarios are within ±1 m, thus showing a limited potential for groundwater management. For future climate scenarios, a rise in groundwater level is observed for 2011 to 2025 under H3A2 emission regime. Nevertheless, a drop in groundwater level is expected due to increased crop consumptive water use and decreased precipitations under H3A2 scenario for the periods 2026-2035 and 2036-2045. Although no imminent threat of groundwater shortage is anticipated, there is an opportunity for developing groundwater resources in the lower model regions through water re-allocation that would be helpful in dealing water shortages. The groundwater situation under H3B2 emission regime is relatively complex due to very low expectation of rise in groundwater level through precipitation during 2011-2025. Any positive change in groundwater under such scenarios is mainly associated with changes in crop consumptive water uses. Consequently, water management under such situation requires revisiting of current cropping patterns as well as augmenting water supply through additional surface water resources.

This thesis presents a new stratigraphic forward numerical model to simulate the carbonate production of marine sedimentary basin through ecological model which is implemented in the SIMSAFADIM-CLASTIC program. This ecological model is based on the Generalized Lotka Voltera equations that model the population evolution of species. These populations are controlled by biological factors (growth rate, carrying capacity and interaction among species), and by the environmental conditions (light, energy of the medium, nutrients, bottom slope and concentration of clastic sediments in suspension) which are combined forming a unique environmental factor that downscale the intrinsic rate of growth. The algorithm to apply in the code uses an explicit Runge-Kutta numerical method of order (4)5 to solve the differential equations formulated in the ecological model. Finally, a 3D visualization output files for the interpretation and analysis are generated using the VTK format. The obtained code has been applied in three sample experiments in order to discuss the possibilities and the limitations of the code. The first example is the model of a theoretical basin. The results are compared with real cases. The second example is an actual basin sited in western Mediterranean Sea. The results are discussed to show the applicability and the limitations of the model. The third example applies several configurations to the Aptian Galve sub-basin (Maestrat Basin, E Iberia), allowing to define the environmental conditions.

In dieser Arbeit wird anfangs dargestellt, wie kostenintensiv und problematisch die Kanalreinigung ausfällt. Durch die demographisch bedingt rückläufigen Schmutzwassermengen und gleichzeitig prognostizierten langen Trockenperioden in den Sommermonaten muss allerdings mit einer verstärkten Akkumulation von Ablagerungen in den Kanalsystemen gerechnet werden. Zudem erweist es sich in Voraussicht auf den Klimawandel als notwendig, den gesamten Kanalquerschnitt für Starkregenereignisse von Ablagerungen freizuhalten; ansonsten ist die häufigere Entlastung des Abwassernetzes in den Vorfluter nach Füllung der vorhandenen Regenrückhaltebecken vorprogrammiert. Die Kanalreinigung wird somit in den nächsten Jahren an Bedeutung gewinnen. Vor allem bei der Reinigung von Großprofilen ist jedoch der Stand der Technik noch nicht ausgereift und die jetzigen Reinigungsmethoden erweisen sich wegen des niedrigen Reinigungserfolges sowie der starken Umweltbelastung durch die genutzten Geräte als ungeeignet. Durch die in dieser Arbeit vorgestellte und auf den Stand der Technik gebrachte Reinigungsmethode wird jedoch eine leistungsstarke Alternative geboten. In Zukunft wird es möglich sein, große Kanaldurchmesser fast vollkommen umweltneutral zu reinigen und nur mit Hilfe der Wasserkraft das gesammelte Sediment bis zum nachgeschalteten Sandfang zu mobilisieren. Mit den durchgeführten und hier dargestellten numerischen Versuchen wird in erster Linie eine geometrische Optimierung zur Erreichung der größten Mobilisierungskräfte im Hinblick auf einen ausgewählten Abschnitt der Dresdner Kanalisation vollzogen. In der nachfolgenden physikalischen Modellierung wird der Schwerpunkt auf die optimale Reinigungsgeschwindigkeit gelegt, um ein möglichst großes Volumen an Ablagerungen zu bewegen. Es muss allerdings präzisiert werden, dass während der Modellierung kein Grenzzustand erreicht werden konnte. Dieser wird schließlich durch die folgende analytische Beschreibung des Transportvorganges theoretisch bestimmt. Für das genutzte physikalische Modell wird analytisch ein Grenztransportkörper aus Modellsediment errechnet. Bei einer Übertragung auf den dazugehörigen vorhandenen Abschnitt im Dresdner Kanalnetz durch Ansetzen des Ähnlichkeitsgesetzes wird ein mobilisierbares Grenzvolumen überschlagen. Die hier dargestellten Ergebnisse der theoretischen Untersuchungen bzw. der physikalischen Modellierung wurden mit den Betreibern und den Herstellern des neuen Stauwagens diskutiert und hinsichtlich konstruktiver Schwerpunkte optimiert. Unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der Kostenoptimierung und der konstruktiven Realisierung wurde von der Firma "WKS Technik GmbH" ein Forschungsmuster zur Untersuchung in einer Pilottestphase entwickelt und gebaut. In der nachfolgenden dargestellten Testphase wurde das Ergebnis als Pilotprojekt im Dresdner Kanalnetz in mehreren Testläufen erprobt und untersucht. Nach jedem Testlauf wurden die aufgetretenen Probleme analysiert und durch Umbauten oder Veränderungen behoben. Regelmäßige Reinigungsfahrten sollten wegen der geringeren Ablagerungsmengen ein gleichmäßiges Fahren gewährleisten bzw. die Ablagerungen vollständig mobilisieren und bis zum Sandfang transportieren, um sie dort zu entnehmen. Während der Testphase wurde eine viel höhere Sedimentmenge gesammelt und transportiert als die, welche sich aus der analytischen Berechnung ergab. Dies folgte aus dem beim Naturversuch zugelassenen höheren Aufstauniveau hinter dem Spülwagen, welches ausnahmsweise zugelassen wurde, um auf eine zwischenzeitliche Sedimentabsaugung zu verzichten. / The early pages of this research thesis demonstrate how costly and problematic sewer cleaning is. Due to changing demographics causing declining amounts of wastewater and, at the same time, to predicted long dry spells during the summer months, an increased accumulation of sediments in the sewer systems has to be expected. With respect to climate change it is necessary to keep the entire sewer cross section free of sediments in order to manage heavy rainfall events; otherwise a more frequent relief of the wastewater system into the receiving water is inevitable once the rain retention basins have been filled. Thus sewer cleaning will gain in importance within the next few years. Predominantly the cleaning of large-diameter profiles, however, has not reached a state-of-the-art technology, and the current cleaning methods prove themselves to be inapt due to their very limited success as well as to the environmental burden posed by the equipment they employ. The state-of-the-art cleaning method presented in this research paper constitutes a high-powered alternative. In the future, it will be possible to clean large sewer cross sections almost entirely in an environmentally neutral fashion and to mobilize the accumulated sediment all the way to the downstream sand trap by exclusively harnessing water power. The numerical experiments conducted for this paper primarily effected a geometric optimization to achieve the maximal mobilization forces in a selected section of Dresden's sewer system. In the subsequent physical modeling the emphasis is placed on the optimal cleaning speed in order to move a maximum volume of sediments. It has to be clarified, however, that no limit state could be reached during the modeling procedure. This limit state is determined theoretically only through the following analytical description of the transport process. For the physical model at hand, the maximum transportable sediment volume made of model sediment is calculated analytically. In an extrapolation for the associated existent section in the Dresden sewer system, a mobilizable limit volume is estimated applying the law of similarity. The results of the theoretical analysis and the physical modeling presented in this work were discussed with the operators and manufacturers of the new storage vehicle and were optimized with regard to constructional core aspects. In special consideration of the cost optimization and the constructional realization, the "WKS Technik GmbH" company developed and constructed a research prototype for a survey in a pilot test phase. During the subsequent test phase, the result was tried out and examined as a pilot project in several trial runs in Dresden's sewer system. After each trial run, the problems which had occurred were analyzed and then eliminated through constructional modifications or other alterations. Regular cleaning runs were intended to guarantee a steady movement of the cleaning vehicle due to a reduced amount of sediments, or to completely mobilize the sediments and transport them to the sand trap in order to remove them there. The sediment volume actually gathered and transported during the test phase was significantly larger than the one derived from the analytical calculation. This increase results from greater storage depths behind the flush car, which were permitted as an exception for the field test in order to go without any interim sediment extractions. / La prima parte della presente tesi di dottorato mette in evidenza le problematicità legate alla pulizia dei canali delle acque reflue, sottolineando in particolare gli enormi costi generati dall 'alta frequenza di depositi e dalla grandezza delle reti di raccolta presenti sui territori. A causa della riduzione demografica e delle condizioni meteorologiche che si stanno alterando, per il prossimo futuro si prevedono lunghi periodi di siccità, interrotti da acquazzoni intensi e brevi. Questo porterà ad un accumulo di depositi nelle reti di raccolta delle acque miste soprattutto nei mesi estivi, che implicherà a sua volta la necessità di tenere le sezioni dei canali presenti libere da depositi per consentire un appropriato deflusso e ritenzione in presenza delle suddette intense precipitazioni. Se in questi casi la ritenzione della rete fognaria non sarebbe data, infatti, si andrebbe a scaricare acque sporche sempre in maggiore quantità e con maggiore frequenza nei corsi d 'acqua di superficie, inquinando in secondo luogo anche le falde acquifere. Da questo quadro, si evince come la pulizia delle canalizzazioni acquisterà in futuro sempre una maggiore importanza. Attualmente, per la pulizia di canali di grandi dimensioni (maggiori di 1000 mm) non esistono metodi efficaci ed ecologici per movimentare i depositi presenti. Il presente lavoro espone una soluzione competitiva ai suddetti problemi. Grazie al lavoro di ricerca e sviluppo svolto, infatti, è stato elaborato un metodo con cui sarà possibile in futuro pulire canali di grosse dimensioni pressoché senza l\'impiego di energia esterna, ma solamente grazie all 'utilizzo dell 'energia dell 'acqua reflua presente nei canali, mobilizzando i depositi fino al prossimo punto presente dove sarà possibile estrarre dalla rete fognaria il materiale raccolto. L 'analisi numerica eseguita e qui rappresentata porta innanzitutto ad un 'ottimizzazione geometrica ed idraulica che consente il raggiungimento delle maggiori forze di mobilizzazione possibili per un segmento scelto della rete fognaria della città di Dresda (Sassonia). Nelle prove in laboratorio correlate si è cercato di ottimizzare la velocità con la quale deve avvenire la pulizia del fondo del canale in modo da poter trasportare il più elevato volume di sedimenti possibile. Si precisa a questo riguardo che in laboratorio non è stato possibile raggiungere il limite volumetrico correlato al modello fisico utilizzato, perché i soli 24 m di lunghezza del banco di prova non hanno consentito il raggiungimento di tale stato limite. Questo limite è stato determinato successivamente attraverso un modello analitico sviluppato appositamente, il quale descrive la mobilizzazione dei sedimenti attraverso la tecnologia di pulizia utilizzata. Attraverso i fattori di conversione che regolano le leggi fisiche presenti tra modello di laboratorio e natura è stato possibile in seguito rapportare il limite volumetrico al segmento reale utilizzato per le prove numeriche. Usando i risultati ottenuti sia dalle analisi numeriche che dalle prove di laboratorio è stato sviluppato e poi realizzato un prototipo assieme al partner commerciale "WKS Technik GmbH", prestando particolare attenzione all 'ottimizzazione costruttiva e dei costi di produzione. Questo prototipo è stato testato per diverse volte in un tratto di circa quattro chilometri della canalizzazione di Dresda. Dopo ogni corsa sono stati analizzati i punti deboli del metodo di pulizia nonché del prototipo stesso e si è provveduto ad eliminarli. Gli ultimi test hanno confermato il funzionamento di tale prototipo offrendo inoltre una buona validazione del modello analitico sviluppato in precedenza.

No description available.

Die Rotliegend-Vulkanite aus dem Norddeutschen Becken (NDB) sind in jüngster Zeit stärker in den Fokus geothermischer Betrachtung gerückt. Ein wichtiger Meilenstein war das Forschungsprojekt Groß Schönebeck, bei dem wider Erwarten die Vulkanite als sekundärer Zielhorizont die besten Voraussetzungen für eine geothermische Erschließung boten. Über die hydraulisch/mechanischen Eigenschaften der Vulkanite im Untergrund ist jedoch kaum etwas bekannt und auch die Oberflächenäquivalente sind hinsichtlich geothermisch relevanter Parameter weitgehend unerforscht. Aus den positiven Erfahrungen des Standorts Schönebeck entstand die Motivation einer umfangreichen Analyse der Rotliegend-Vulkanite mit Blick auf eine tiefengeothermische Nutzung. Es wurden thermische, felsmechanische und petrophysikalische Untersuchungen von sieben Oberflächenäquivalenten durchgeführt; drei der Oberflächengesteine sowie zwei Tiefenbohrungen wurden ferner hinsichtlich auftretender Kluftmuster analysiert. Die Daten fungieren als Eingangsparameter für hydraulische sowie hydromechanische numerische Modellierungen zur Potenzialabschätzung und zum Prozessverständnis. Die thermische Analyse der Gesteine ergab eine hohe Wärmeleitfähigkeit für die quarzreichen und dichten Vulkanitvarietäten. Durch die Wärmekapazität und die Reservoirtemperatur wurde das technische Strompotenzial für die Eruptionsstadien ermittelt. Das größte Potenzial liegt im explosiven Ignimbritstadium und im Post-Ignimbritstadium und wird auf einen Wert geschätzt, der allein dem 20-fachen des deutschen Jahresstromverbrauchs entspricht. Regional betrachtet ist das größte Potenzial bei Standortwahl im zentralen östlichen NDB zu erwarten. Die untersuchten Vulkanite sind überwiegend dicht und erfordern Stimulationsmaßnahmen für eine erfolgreiche Erschließung. Auch die stärker porösen Tuffe erreichen nicht die erforderliche Matrixpermeabilität für einen Porenleiter. Triaxiale Druckversuche unter in-situ Spannungsbedingungen haben jedoch gezeigt, dass es nur bedingt möglich ist, Risse im intakten Gestein zu erzeugen. Man ist folglich auf eine gestörte Kruste, also Klüfte im Gestein angewiesen. Sowohl die Oberflächengesteine als auch die Vulkanite im Untergrund sind nachweislich geklüftet. Das tektonische Grundmuster beschreibt Klüfte, die NW-SE bis NNW-SSE sowie NE-SW bis NNE-SSW orientiert sind und dabei steil einfallen. Die Scherfestigkeitskriterien der Kluftflächen liegen deutlich unterhalb derer für das intakte Gestein, so dass die Bedingung für eine Aktivierung der Klüfte im Spannungsfeld des NDB positiv bewertet wird. Die Kluftdaten wurden zum Zwecke numerischer Modellierungen in diskrete Kluftnetzwerkmodelle überführt. Hydraulische Modellierungen ergaben eine bevorzugte Fließrichtung in NW-SE. Die mit der Tiefe zunehmende Kluftschließung führt zu einer Durchlässigkeit, die für eine geothermische Nutzung nicht ausreichend ist, das Gestein muss hydraulisch stimuliert werden. Eine Stimulation der Kluftflächen zur Steigerung der Fließrate wurde mittels hydromechanischer Modellierungen erfolgreich dargestellt. Die wichtigsten Kriterien für eine erfolgreiche Stimulation sind die Geometrie des Kluftsystems und die Orientierung des Spannungsfelds. Aufgrund der überwiegend vertikalen Kluftflächen im Vulkanit und der hohen Vertikalspannung im tiefengeothermischen Reservoir wird eine Erschließung über das Multiriss-Konzept empfohlen. Durch den in der vorliegenden Arbeit dargestellten methodischen Ansatz kann mittels repräsentativer Eingangsparameter für einen Standort entsprechend der notwendige Injektionsdruck sowie die Art und Intensität der Verformung der Kluftflächen für eine hydraulische Stimulation prognostiziert werden.

Liquefaction is the phenomena when there is loss of strength in saturated and cohesion-less soils because of increased pore water pressures and hence reduced effective stresses due to dynamic loading. It is a phenomenon in which the strength and stiffness of a soil is reduced by earthquake shaking or other rapid loading. In this study, after the short review of liquefaction definition, the models of prediction and estimation of liquefaction were considered. Application of numerical modelling with two major software (FLAC & PLAXIS) for the Wildlife site liquefaction, under superstition earthquake in 1987 were compared and analysed. Third step was started with introduction of Fuzzy logic and neural network as two common intelligent mathematical methods. These two patterns for prediction of soil liquefaction were combined. The “Neural network- Fuzzy logic-Liquefaction- Prediction” (NFLP) was applied for liquefaction prediction in Wildlife site. The results show the powerful prediction of liquefaction happening with high degree of accuracy in this case.

Permafrost ist ein Bestandteil der Kryosphäre der Erde, der für Ökosysteme und Infrastruktur in der Arktis von Bedeutung ist und auch eine Schlüsselrolle im globalen Kohlenstoffkreislauf einnimmt. Das Auftauen von Permafrost infolge einer Klimaerwärmung zu projizieren ist mit sehr großen Unsicherheiten behaftet, da großskalige Klimamodelle entscheidende Komplexitäten von Permafrostlandschaften nicht berücksichtigen. Insbesondere bleiben in diesen Modellen Auftauprozesse in eisreichem Permafrost unberücksichtigt, welche weitreichende Landschaftsveränderungen – sogenannter Thermokarst – hervorrufen. Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation habe ich ein numerisches Modell entwickelt, um Auftauprozesse in eisreichen Permafrostlandschaften zu untersuchen, und habe es angewendet, um verbesserte Projektionen darüber zu erhalten, wie viel Permafrost infolge einer Klimaerwärmung auftauen würde. Der Schwerpunkt meiner Forschung lag auf besonders kalten, eis- und kohlenstoffreichen Permafrostablagerungen in der nordostsibirischen Arktis. In drei Forschungsartikeln habe ich gezeigt, dass der neuartige Modellierungsansatz in From von lateral gekoppelten “Kacheln” verwendet werden kann, um die Entwicklung von eisreichen Permafrostlandschaften realistisch zu simulieren. Anhand numerischer Simulationen habe ich gezeigt, dass der kleinskalige laterale Transport von Wärme, Wasser, Schnee und Sediment die Dynamik von Permafrostlandschaften sowie die Menge des aufgetauten Permafrosts unter Klimaerwärmungsszenarien entscheidend beeinflusst. Weiterhin habe ich gezeigt, dass in Simulationen, die Thermokarstprozesse berücksichtigen, wesentlich mehr Kohlenstoff vom Auftauen des Permafrosts betroffen ist, als in solchen, in denen eisreiche Ablagerungen unberücksichtigt bleiben. Insgesamt stellt die in dieser Dissertation dargelegte Forschungsarbeit einen substantiellen Fortschritt bezüglich einer realistischeren Einschätzung der Dynamik eisreicher Permafrostlandschaften mittels numerischer Modelle dar. / Permafrost is a component of Earth's cryosphere which is of importance for ecosystems and infrastructure in the Arctic, and plays a key role in the global carbon cycle. Large-scale climate models reveal high uncertainties in projections of how much permafrost would thaw in response to climate warming scenarios, since they do not represent key complexities of permafrost environments. In particular, large-scale models do not take into account thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost which cause widespread landscape change referred to as thermokarst. For this thesis, I have developed a numerical model to investigate thaw processes in ice-rich permafrost landscapes, and I have used it to obtain improved projections of how much permafrost would thaw in response to climate warming. The focus of my research was on cold, ice- and carbon-rich permafrost deposits in the northeast Siberian Arctic, and on landscapes characterized by ice-wedge polygons. In three closely interrelated research articles, I have demonstrated that the novel modelling approach of laterally coupled ''tiles'' can be used to realistically simulate the evolution of ice-rich permafrost landscapes. The numerical simulations have revealed that small-scale lateral transport of heat, water, snow, and sediment crucially affect the dynamics of permafrost landscapes and how much permafrost would thaw under climate warming scenarios. My research revealed that substantially more permafrost carbon is affected by thaw in numerical simulations which take into account thermokarst processes, than in simulations which lack a representation of excess ice. These results suggest that conventional large-scale models used for future climate projections might considerably underestimate permafrost thaw and associated carbon-cycle feedbacks. Overall, the research presented in this thesis constitutes a major progress towards the realistic assessment of ice-rich permafrost landscape dynamics using numerical models.

This work is motivated by the question: how much complexity is appropriate for a cloud parameterization used in general circulation models (GCM). To approach this question, cloud parameterizations across the complexity range are explored using general circulation models and theoretical Monte-Carlo simulations. Their results are compared with high-resolution satellite observations and simulations that resolve the GCM subgrid-scale variability explicitly. A process-orientated evaluation is facilitated by GCM forecast simulations which reproduce the synoptic state. For this purpose novel methods were develop to a) conceptually relate the underlying saturation deficit probability density function (PDF) with its saturated cloudy part, b) analytically compute the vertical integrated liquid water path (LWP) variability, c) diagnose the relevant PDF-moments from cloud parameterizations, d) derive high-resolution LWP from satellite observations and e) deduce the LWP statistics by aggregating the LWP onto boxes equivalent to the GCM grid size. On this basis, this work shows that it is possible to evaluate the sub-grid scale variability of cloud parameterizations in terms of cloud variables. Differences among the PDF types increase with complexity, in particular the more advanced cloud parameterizations can make use of their double Gaussian PDF in conditions, where cumulus convection forms a separate mode with respect to the remainder of the grid-box. Therefore, it is concluded that the difference between unimodal and bimodal PDFs is more important, than the shape within each mode. However, the simulations and their evaluation reveals that the advanced parameterizations do not take full advantage of their abilities and their statistical relationships are broadly similar to less complex PDF shapes, while the results from observations and cloud resolving simulations indicate even more complex distributions. Therefore, this work suggests that the use of less complex PDF shapes might yield a better trade-off. With increasing model resolution initial weaknesses of simpler, e.g. unimodal PDFs, will be diminished. While cloud schemes for coarse-resolved models need to parameterize multiple cloud regimes per grid-box, higher spatial resolution of future GCMs will separate them better, so that the unimodal approximation improves.