本篇論文以分析師對未來公司盈餘預測為基礎，使用剩餘所得模型來對台灣股票市場做實證研究。在這個架構下，我們比較了剩餘所得模型評價法與各種不同的傳統評價法對台灣50成分股的估算表現。 本篇論文的實證發現，內含價值對股票價格比率(intrinsic value to price ratio)對台灣50成分股的預測，在中短期的投資期間內相較於傳統評價法，預測力最高。帳面價值對股票價格比率(book value to price ratio)則在長期的投資期間內，預測力顯著高於其他評價法。盈餘對價格比率(earnings to price ratio)預測力最低。而將所有評價法一同列入考慮時，則發現並沒有任何一種評價法能明顯主宰其他不同的評價法，各種評價方法在預測未來股市表現是互補的。 本篇論文進一步探討剩餘所得模型評價法對台灣50成分股的交易策略，發現以剩餘所得模型估算出的內含價值為標準來進行交易，能得到正報酬。而考慮會計保守原則的模型報酬率能顯著高於沒有將會計保守原則列入考慮的模型。 / We provide an empirical assessment of the residual income valuation model bases on analysts’ forecast data in Taiwan stock market. In this framework, we compare the performance of alternative estimates of intrinsic value with traditional valuation estimates for the component stocks of TSEC Taiwan 50 Index. According to our results, intrinsic value-to-price ratio is a reliable predictor of market returns over short-to-mid period and book-to-price ratios is a reliable predictor over long horizons. Unlike the two ratios, earnings-to-price ratio has little predictive power for returns in Taiwan stock market. Furthermore, intrinsic value-to-price ratio does not dominate traditional valuation but provide another perspective of stock valuation, and we can have a better forecast of future return of Taiwan stock market with consideration of all valuation estimates.

本研究首先採事件研究法探討第34號公報第二次修訂公報發布時，市場反應與是否具備資訊內涵。其次針對公司之季報發布日公司所揭露之損益影響數，研究市場對於公報第二次修訂後第一個盈餘公布時點之反應，再以Ohlson 評價模式，來驗證所揭露之損益影響數是否具價值攸關，投資人對此事件反應為何。採用logit及一般迴歸，分別探討影響公司重分類動機的因素及影響公司重分類金額多寡之因素加以實證分析。 實證結果顯示在公報修訂發布日及季報發布日具資訊內涵及價值攸關 ，投資人並有功能性固著現象產生。就重分類動機而言，當公司董監質押比率越高、TCRI信用評等等級越高、非四大會計師事務所核閱之客戶、淨值報酬率越低越傾向重分類金融資產。而就重分類金額多寡而言，董監事質押比越高、TCRI信用評等等級越高、非四大會計師事務所核閱、股利配發率越高、淨值報酬率越低，重分類之損益影響數金額越大。 / This research mainly focuses on the market responses and its information content against the second amendment re-classification of SFAS NO.34 of financial assets using event study methodology. Market responses is examined with the amount disclosed at the first announcement of quarterly report. Then Ohlson model is applied to verify whether the disclosed amount has value relevance and how investors react to the announcement. The logit and OLS regression is utilized to examine the rationale behind reclassification and what affects the amount of reclassification. The empirical result shows that the announcement date of second amendment and announcement date of quarterly report do retain information content and value relevance. The investors have shown significant functional fixation. Higher pledged share ratio of directors and supervisors, lower ROE and higher TCRI rating, and is not reviewed by big four audit firms, is positively related to reclassification of financial assets. The amount of reclassification is positively related to higher pledged share ratio of directors and supervisors, higher TCRI rating, higher dividend payout ratio, is not reviewed by big four audit firms and lower ROE.

本研究以Ohlson (1995) model為發展基礎，並將盈餘定義為（１）剩餘淨利及（２）盈餘水準，分別就此二種不同定義下的盈餘，以年度盈餘時間序列來測試其是否符合線性資訊動態假設，及針對各模式對股權價值估計與預測之結果做比較，探討何種評價方法或模式對於估計真實價值、解釋價格及預測報酬之效果較佳。 研究結果發現，我國上市公司之剩餘淨利及盈餘水準時間序列皆符合線性資訊動態假說。剩餘淨利線性資訊動態模型較能正確預估次一期的盈餘。相較於單獨以帳面價值來估計股價，考慮線性資訊動態模型所建立之各評價模型所預測之估計股價皆未能正確預測權益價值及解釋權益價值之波動。在投資策略方面，因剩餘淨利模型之投資績效最為穩定，在該模型之投資策略下，V/P比率愈低（高）之投資組合獲得之平均股票報酬愈低（高），代表股價愈是被低估的投資組合可賺取更多之投資報酬，這說明剩餘淨利模型預測次期投資報酬之能力最佳，投資人可以其做為建立投資策略的參考。 / Based on Ohlson (1995) model, this study specifies earnings variables as both residual income and earnings levels to test the linear information dynamic (LID) models per se and the ability of competing valuation models to value the contemporaneous stock prices. A comparison of future stock return predicting capability of competing models is also conducted. By using both residual income time series and earnings levels time series for examining the issue on the firms listed on the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE), the empirical results support Ohlson’s information dynamics. However, when estimated as a time series, the linear information models using either residual income or earnings levels variables provide value estimates no better than book value does alone. From the investment strategy aspect, the superior predictive ability of the residual income valuation model with respect to future stock returns demonstrates that high (low) V/P ratios gets high (low) investment returns. It implies that the underpriced portfolio makes high investment returns. Accordingly, the residual income valuation is good for estimating returns on the following year and is therefore a valuable investment reference..

Bankruptcies have been a sensitive topic all around the world for over 50 years. From their research, the authors have found that only a few bankruptcy studies have been conducted in Sweden and even less on the topic of bankruptcy prediction models. This thesis investigates the performance of the Altman, Ohlson and Zmijewski bankruptcy prediction models. This research investigates all Swedish companies during the years 2017 and 2018.  This study has the intention to shed light on some of the most famous bankruptcy prediction models. It is interesting to explore the predictive abilities and usability of those three models in Sweden. The second purpose of this study is to create two models from the most significant variable out of the three models studied and to test its prediction power with the aim to create two models designed for Swedish companies.  We identified a research gap in terms of Sweden, where bankruptcy prediction models have been rather unexplored and especially with those three models. Furthermore, we have identified a second research gap regarding the time period of the research. Only a few studies have been conducted on the topic of bankruptcy prediction models post the financial crisis of 2007/08.  We have conducted a quantitative study in order to achieve the purpose of the study. The data used was secondary data gathered from the Serrano database. This research followed an abductive approach with a positive paradigm. This research has studied all active Swedish companies between the years 2017 and 2018. Finally, this contributed to the current field of knowledge on the topic through the analysis of the results of the models on Swedish companies, using the liquidity theory, solvency and insolvency theory, the pecking order theory, the profitability theory, the cash flow theory, and the contagion effect. The results aligned with the liquidity theory, the solvency and insolvency theory and the profitability theory. Moreover, from this research we have found that the Altman model has the lowest performance out of the three models, followed by the Ohlson model that shows some mixed results depending on the statistical analysis. Lastly, the Zmijewski model has the best performance out of the three models. Regarding the performance and the prediction power of the two new models were significantly higher than the three models studied.

有鑑於全球愈來愈重視企業營運對社區造成的社會、環境和經濟影響，企業的利害關係人除了重視企業的財務績效之外，也愈來愈關心企業是否有善盡其「社會公民」的責任與角色。企業責任報告之目的就是在傳統的財務報表之外，進一步揭露企業的營業活動對於社會及環境所造成的影響。為了使資本市場能更有效地運作，公司管理當局應該要揭露範圍更廣、透明度更高、並有助於投資決策的攸關性資訊，因此，發布社會責任報告的企業有日益增多的趨勢。本研究之目的即在探討三個與企業責任報告有關的議題：(1) 企業的公司治理結構之良窳與管理當局企業責任報告揭露決策的關係；(2) 企業揭露社會責任報告之決策是否會產生股價溢酬；(3)企業社會責任報告揭露決策對企業的事前權益資金成本的影響。在控制樣本的自我選擇偏誤之後，本研究的主要發現有二：第一、公司治理結構愈好的企業愈傾向於揭露企業責任報告，而且也愈可能以專節的形式在該報告中揭露公司治理資訊；第二、從有無揭露企業責任報告的角度來看，本研究發現有揭露的公司均有較高 (低) 的股價 (資金成本)。其次，從揭露的內容做進一步分析之後，本研究發現「環境績效」、「社會績效」與「公司治理」三大類內容的揭露決策均具有價格溢酬。至於「企業承諾」則對公司股價並無顯著影響。最後，企業責任報告揭露程度較高之企業會有較顯著的價格溢酬以及較低的資金成本。 / In light of the increasing emphasis on companies’ social, environmental and economic impacts on the communities, stakeholders are more concerned about whether firms appropriately assume their responsibility as a social citizen. To fulfill stakeholders’ demand of such non-financial information, many companies have recently begun to voluntarily issue the corporate responsibility reports (CRR) as a means to disclose their social, environmental and economic performance and their commitment to do business responsibly. This study intends to answer the following three key questions related to the CRR disclosure: (a) Will companies with stronger corporate governance be more willing to issue CRR? (b) Will the voluntary disclosure of CRR leads to stock price premium? (c) Will companies making voluntary disclosure of CRR have lower ex ante cost of capital? After controlling for the self-selection bias, the empirical results reveal several important findings. First, the stronger the companies’ coporate governance, the more likely the management will issue CRR. Particularly, these companies tend to disclose their comporate governance policy and procedures in a separate section in the CRR. Second, companies disclosing CRR experience significantly higher (lower) stock prices (cost of capital). A further examination shows that three out of four major components reported in the CRR (i.e., environmental performance, social performance, and corporate governance) give rise to significant price premium. The disclosure of business commitment, however, seems to bear little or no information content embedded in the stock price. Finally, companies disclosing more information in their CRR have higher price premium and lower cost of capital than those disclosing less information. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Från 1900-talets början har banker och låneinstitut använt nyckeltal som hjälpmedel vid bedömning och kvantifiering av kreditrisk. För dagens investerare är den ekonomiska miljön mer komplicerad än för bara 40 år sedan då teknologin och datoriseringen öppnade upp världens marknader mot varandra. Bedömning av kreditrisk idag kräver effektiv analys av kvantitativa data och modeller som med god träffsäkerhet kan förutse risker. Under 1900-talets andra hälft skedde en snabb utveckling av de verktyg som används för konkursprediktion, från enkla univariata modeller till komplexa data mining-modeller med tusentals observationer. Denna studie undersöker om det är möjligt att prediktera att svenska företag kommer att gå i konkurs och vilka variabler som innehåller relevant information för detta. Metoderna som används är diskriminantanalys, logistisk regression och överlevnadsanalys på 50 aktiva och 50 företag försatta i konkurs. Resultaten visar på en träffsäkerhet mellan 67,5 % och 75 % beroende på vald statistisk metod. Oavsett vald statistisk metod är det möjligt att klassificera företag som konkursmässiga två år innan konkursens inträffande med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal av typerna lönsamhetsmått och solvensmått. Samhällskostnader reduceras av bättre konkursprediktion med hjälp av finansiella nyckeltal vilka bidrar till ökad förmåga för företag att tillämpa ekonomistyrning med relevanta nyckeltal i form av lager, balanserad vinst, nettoresultat och rörelseresultat. / From the early 1900s, banks and lending institutions have used financial ratios as an aid in the assessment and quantification of credit risk. For today's investors the economic environment is far more complicated than 40 years ago when the technology and computerization opened up the world's markets. Credit risk assessment today requires effective analysis of quantitative data and models that can predict risks with good accuracy. During the second half of the 20th century there was a rapid development of the tools used for bankruptcy prediction. We moved from simple univariate models to complex data mining models with thousands of observations. This study investigates if it’s possible to predict bankruptcy in Swedish limited companies and which variables contain information relevant for this cause. The methods used in the study are discriminant analysis, logistic regression and survival analysis on 50 active and 50 failed companies. The results indicate accuracy between 67.5 % and 75 % depending on the choice of statistical method. Regardless of the selected statistical method used, it’s possible to classify companies as bankrupt two years before the bankruptcy occurs using financial ratios which measures profitability and solvency. Societal costs are reduced by better bankruptcy prediction using financial ratios which contribute to increasing the ability of companies to apply financial management with relevant key ratios in the form of stock , retained earnings , net income and operating income.

Abstract The steel industry has been known as 'The mother of all industries '. With the emerging incidents such as Asian financial meltdown, industrialization of the China, and the policy of macro economic controls by the China government, the stock index of the steel industry has fluctuated violently. Despite the economy of China is to be adjusted upwards, in the foreseen future, the global steel supply will be probably exceed the demand. Such phenomenon definitely causes the pressure on the market that it also attracts much attention of the relevant stockholders. Current research investigates the most suitable model for valuating the stock price of the steel industry that would provide valuating methods to the corporate management and investors for decision making and investment. This research has studied 19 companies of steel industry of Taiwan listing companies with 6 approaches including the ¡¥Discounted Free Cash Flow Models¡¦, ¡¥Price to Earning Ratio¡¦, ¡¥Price to EBITDA Ratio¡¦, ¡¥Price to Sales Ratio¡¦, ¡¥Price to Book Value Ratio¡¦ and ¡¥Edwards-Bell-Ohlson Model¡¦ to valuate their reasonable intrinsic value from 2000 to 2005. The test of Theil¡¦s U is then applied to evaluate the approaches in order to justify the best valuation model. This study indicates the following results¡GThe Price to Book Value Ratio is the best valuation model since its smallest Theil¡¦s U value. The Price to Earning Ratio is the most unsuitable model for this evaluation purpose with a highest Theil¡¦s U value.

依據財務會計理論，附註揭露為整體財務報表的一部份，其目的在提供投資人進行企業評價時所需之攸關資訊。兩稅合一制度實施後，不僅使稅賦型態轉變，會計原則中也新增附註揭露股東可扣抵稅額之規定，因此提供了驗證資本市場與財務報表揭露的機會，本研究即針對股東可扣抵稅揭露是否具有價值攸關性進行測試。 本研究以87年為樣本年度，分析資料完整的317家上市公司，透過Ohlson模型來檢測股東可扣抵稅額之價值攸關性，並處理Ohlson模型中兩個重要的information dynamics，以異常盈餘（xa ）及其他資訊（v）做為模型中的自變數，將財務分析師之財務預測（analysts’forecasts）做為Ohlson模型中其他資訊（other information）之代理變數，以捕捉Ohlson模型中其他資訊對股價的影響。最後，考慮產業及公司規模兩項因素，觀察紡織業與電子業對股東可扣抵稅額揭露之反應以及公司規模對於價值攸關性研究的影響。 實驗結果顯示，無論以現金基礎或應計基礎衡量股東可扣抵稅額，其揭露均具價值攸關性，投資人的確使用財務報表附註揭露中有關股東可扣抵稅額之資訊於企業評價上。其次，異常盈餘與其他資訊皆能捕捉股價之變動。最後，在紡織業與電子業中雖未觀察到股東可扣抵稅額之揭露具有攸關性，但公司規模的因素則無論在全體樣本或各別產業中皆具影響力。 / According to modern accouning theory, footnote disclosures are an intergrated part of the overall financial statements. The purpose of footnote disclosures is to provide value-relevant information in assisting investors’ valuation process. After Taiwan’s 1998 Tax Reform, which intergrates the individual and corporate taxes, the current GAAP requires a footnote disclosure of imputation credits (IC). This provides a good chance to test how Taiwan’s stock market reacts to such disclosuer. The main purpose of this study is to examine the value relevance of IC disclosure to investors’ equity valuation. This study uses Ohlson’s (1995) model to analyze 317 firms listed on Taiwan’s Stock Exchang (TSE) during 1998. To estimate the abcdrmal earings and other information (captured by analysts’ forcasts), this study adopts Dechow, Hutton, and Sloan’s(1999) methodology. We also investigate the effects of industry and firm size on the value relevance of IC disclosure. The empirical results reveal three findings. First, there is a positive association between IC and stock price in TSE. Therefore, the IC disclosure is value relevant to investors’ equity valuation. Second, abcdmal earnings and other information can both explain stock price behavior. Finally, when we focus our sample on the textile and high-tech industries, no significant association between IC disclosure and stock price can be found. When we further consider firm size, however, the value relevance of IC disclosure becomes significant. In other word, the value relevance of IC disclosure may be affected by firm size.

本研究以台灣證券交易所編製之修正股價平均數為研究對象，衡量股價平均數之理論隱含價值，並加以預測。文中假設股票市價與真實價值間靜態均衡無法成立，改以連續收斂型態的動態調整過程，才能對於此種現象加以描述，並假設股價平均數之市價與模型評估值為共整合關係，利用V/P比率來預測股價平均數報酬率，且將投資大眾經常使用之變數（例如E/P、B/P、利率等等）加以比較，所得出之結論如下： (1) V/P比率一階自我相關係數較低，顯示V/P偏離平均值時，較其他比率返回平均數速度快，較能反映市場的走勢與變動。 (2) 短期下並無任一財務比率可以對於股價平均數走勢加以預測，但長期下（未來一年之後），V/P 比率具有相當顯著的預測能力。 (3) 將E/P與B/P納入迴歸式，V/P 比率在未來一至八季期間，仍具有顯著預測能力，可見V/P比率即使與E/P或B/P比率有某種程度的相關，並不影響到V/P 比率的預測能力。 (4) 將總體經濟變數納入迴歸式中，V/P 比率預測能力在短期中會受到些許影響，但經過一年之後，V/P 比率仍然具有相當顯著的預測能力。 (5) 若以過去公司每股盈餘、淨值、股東權益報酬率等財務相關歷史資料，作為未來公司盈餘收益以及成長的預測，會使得V/P 比率受到影響（在短期時預測能力大為降低），但就長期而言（未來第五季之後），此項指標仍然具有預測能力，對於股價平均數水準之評估，仍有一定程度的參考作用。 (6) 分別選取15%、13%、11%、9%及7%等固定折現率，依序求出修正股價平均數的V/P比率，檢定結果與隨時間變動折現率所計算之比率數值相比較，並沒有產生相當明顯的變化。雖然V/P比率的預測能力隨著折現率的下降而減弱，但其變化的趨勢並無絕對穩定的關係，對於「長期下」的預測能力，並不會產生極大的影響。 綜合以上結論，本研究發現：利用Ohlson（1990）剩餘所得模型（residual income model）來估算台灣證券交易所編製之修正股價平均數水準，較易以一般市場上獲取的會計資訊來加以衡量，也較能反映股市基本面價值。即使短期內V/P比率預測能力並不十分明顯，但長期下（一年後）採用V/P比率此項指標，仍能預測未來股價平均數之走勢，且與其他變數比較而言，此預測能力呈現一較穩定之關係。由於國內相關研究甚少直接對股市股價指數做直接的衡量與評估，因此，實務上可以將此估算方法作為一種參考指標，並以此分析未來股價指數水準在長期下之走勢與變動。 第一章 緒論 1 第一節 研究背景 1 第二節 研究動機與目的 2 第三節 研究架構 5 第四節 研究流程 6 第二章 文獻探討 7 第一節 國外部分 7 第二節 國內部分 10 第三章 研究方法與設計 13 第一節 研究設計 13 第二節 剩餘所得模型 15 第三節 資料收集與整理 18 第四節 研究方法與實證模式 25 第四章 實證結果與分析 30 第一節 修正股價平均數之檢視 30 第二節 基本面比率對於股價平均數報酬率之預測 32 第三節 V/P衡量方法之優劣比較 36 第五章 結論與建議 50 第一節 研究結論 50 第二節 研究限制與建議 52 參考文獻 54 英文部分 54 中文部分 56

This diploma thesis deals with evaluation of the financial situation of selected company between years 2012 - 2016. The theoretical part of this thesis deals with basic principles of financial and strategic analysis which create basis for elaboration of the practical part. The practical part analyzes the current state of the company using classic and modern methods of financial analysis. Based on findings in the practical part is evaluated overall financial situation of the company and recommendations are suggested to improve the current situation of the company.