Norges Handelshøyskole, Diss.--Bergen, 2007. / Enth. 4 Beitr.

Universiẗat, Diss.--Würzburg, 2007.

Univ., Diss--Bielefeld, 2007.

Cette thèse est consacrée à l‘étude de la relation entre la croissance économique et l’environnement, en tenant compte des décisions altruistes des ménages envers leurs enfants en termes de legs économique, éducatif et environnemental. Ce travail s’articule autour de trois chapitres. Le premier se focalise sur les premiers stades de développement, marquant un tournant majeur de cette relation, et met en exergue le rôle des interactions des sphères économique, démographique et environnementale dans l’émergence d’un processus d’industrialisation polluante. Il illustre également les grandes disparités observées historiquement avec des économies piégées dans une trappe à pauvreté et d’autres se développant au prix d’une pollution élevée. Les chapitres suivants s’intéressent à des économies développées. Le deuxième chapitre prend en compte l’endogénéité des préférences environnementales pour analyser une politique environnementale composée d’outils usuels (taxe sur la pollution et dépenses de dépollution) et d’un outil éducatif visant à sensibiliser les ménages à l'environnement. Nous montrons qu’un tel "policy mix" peut permettre à la fois d’éviter des inégalités intergénérationnelles, provenant de fluctuations des préférences, et de favoriser la croissance économique. Le troisième chapitre traite des effets de la pollution sur l’espérance de vie et de l’aspect inégalitaire de leur répartition au sein de la population. Nous trouvons qu’il existe une trappe à inégalités, où les disparités empirent constamment mais qu’une politique environnementale peut permettre d’échapper à cette trappe et d’augmenter la croissance de l’économie, par ses effets sur la santé et l’éducation. / This thesis is devoted to the analysis of the relationship between economic growth and the environment, when considering the altruistic choices of parents toward their children, through environmental, economic and educative bequests. This work is organized around three chapters. The first focuses on the first stages of economic development, corresponding to a major turning point of this relationship. It highlights the role of interactions between economic, demographic and environmental spheres in the emergence of a polluting industrialization. Moreover, it illustrates the great disparities, historically observed, with economies stuck in a poverty trap and others developing at expense of their environment. The others chapter deals with developed economies. The second chapter takes into account the endogeneity of environmental preferences in order to analyze the implications of an environmental policy composed of usual tools (pollution tax and abatement activities) and an educative tool aiming to raise households’ environmental awareness. We show that such a policy mix may allow to avoid intergenerational inequalities, coming from fluctuations in preferences, and to enhance economic growth. The third chapter considers the effects of pollution on longevity and their unequal repartition across population. We highlight that there exists an inequality trap, where disparities are persistently widening, but also that an environmental policy may allow an economy to escape from this trap and to improve economic growth, through its positive effects on health and on the returns to education.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la relation de long-terme entre la longévité et le développement économique. Dans le premier chapitre, j’analyse l’impact des dépenses de santé sur la croissance et le bien-être. Pour cela, j’étudie l’influence du taux d’imposition dans une économie avec temps de vie endogène (Chakraborty (2004)). Je détermine le taux d’imposition qui maximise le taux de croissance. Puis je m’intéresse aux variations du niveau de production dans l’état stationnaire par rapport au taux d’imposition. Enfin, j’étudie le taux d’imposition qui maximise le bien-être dans l’état stationnaire. Dans le second chapitre, j'analyse l’impact sur la croissance de dépenses de santé choisies par les agents. En effet, je développe un modèle de croissance endogène dans lequel les individus peuvent dépenser des ressources pour vivre plus longtemps dans leur période de retraite. Je donne une caractérisation complète de l’équilibre général dynamique puis je détermine l’impact sur la croissance des dépenses de santé. Enfin, le troisième chapitre étudie l’impact théorique du vieillissement sur l’allocation sectorielle des travailleurs. Je développe un modèle multi-sectoriel dans lequel j’examine les conséquences sur le revenu par travailleur et l’allocation sectorielle des travailleurs d’un choc de longévité et de fertilité. Je montre que contrairement aux modèles uni-sectoriels, le revenu n’est pas forcément monotone par rapport aux variables démographiques. Des chocs démographiques réalistes produisent des mouvements non-négligeables de travailleurs. / This dissertation is interested in the long-run relationship between longevity and economic development. In the first chapter, I analyse the impact of health expenditures on economic growth and welfare. For this, I study the influence of the tax rate in an economy à la Chakraborty (2004). I first determine the growth-maximizing tax rate, which is shown to be 0 in low-income countries. Second, I show that the steady-state income level is an inverted U-shaped function or a decreasing function of the tax rate. Third, I study the tax rate that maximizes the steady-state welfare level. In the second chapter, I propose a theoretical model to study the growth impacts of health expenditures chosen by the agents. Indeed, I develop a Diamond model with endogenous growth in which young individuals can spend resources to increase their longevity in retirement period. I give a full characterization of the dynamic general equilibrium and determine the growth impacts of health expenditures. They can speed up or slow down economic growth. They can be a barrier or a necessity for growth to take place. A calibration to OECD countries suggests that the latter case is the most likely one. Finally, the third chapter studies the theoretical impact of the aging process on the sectorial labor allocation. To this aim, I develop a multi-sector two-period overlapping generations model in which I examine the consequences of both a longevity shift and a fertility shift on the labor allocation of the economy and on the income per worker level. I show that contrary to one-sector models, the income per worker level is not necessarily monotonic with respect to demographic variables. Realistic demographic shocks are also shown to create significant labor reallocation across sectors.

[pt] Eu desenvolvo um modelo de gerações sobrepostas com crescimento salarial ao longo do ciclo de vida (LCWP, por sua sigla em inglês), taxa de mortalidade dependente da idade, restrições de liquidez e rigidez nominal. O modelo é calibrado para capturar a transição demográfica dos EUA, estimativas de LCWP e outras características importantes da economia dos EUA durante o período 3;72-4239. O modelo é usado para examinar a relação entre dados demográficos e taxas de juros reais assim como os principais mecanismos de transmissão em jogo. Eu encontro que o rápido aumento da população em idade ativa entre 3;72 e 3;:2 contribuiu significativamente para o aumento das taxas de juros reais. A reversão desse processo, juntamente com o aumento da expectativa de vida, desencadeou um rápido declínio nas taxas de juros desde então. A heterogeneidade na propensão marginal a consumir entre os trabalhadores desempenha um papel importante na conexão desses movimentos de fertilidade e taxa de juros real. Num exercício adicional, devido à evidência de grandes erros de previsão da expectativa de vida, eu estendo o modelo com um processo de aprendizado sobre longevidade e encontro que ele pode aumentar significativamente a relevância de fatores demográficos na explicação dos movimentos reais das taxas de juros. Por fim, encontro que a falha dos bancos centrais em levar em conta a relação entre dados demográficos e taxas de juros pode gerar, devido a mudanças não monitoradas na taxa de juros natural, variações na taxa de inflação. / [en] I develop an overlapping generations model with life cycle wage profile (LCWP), age-dependent mortality rate, liquidity constraints, and nominal rigidities. The model is calibrated to capture US demographic transition, LCWP estimations, and other salient features of the US economy during 3;72-4239. The model is then used to examine the relationship between demographics and real interest rates and the main transmission mechanisms in play. I find that the rapid increase in the working age population from 3;72-3;:2s has significantly contributed to the rise of real interest rates. The reversion of this process together with the increase in life expectancy triggered a rapid decline in the interest rates ever since. The heterogeneity in the marginal propensity to consume among workers plays a major role in connecting these fertility and real interest rate movements. In an additional exercise, due to the evidence on large life expectancy forecast errors, I introduce a learning process about longevity and find that it can significantly a ugment t he r elevance o f d emographic f actors in explaining real interest rate movements. Finally, I find t hat t he central banks failure to recognize the relationship between demographics and interest rates can generate, due to unaccounted changes in the natural interest rate, inflation rate variations.

We study skill- and income-related differences in the access to health care as drivers of longevity inequality from a theoretical life-cycle as well as from a macroeconomic perspective. To do so, we develop an overlapping generations model populated by heterogeneous agents subject to endogenous mortality. We model two groups of individuals for whom differences in skills translate into differences in income and in the ability to use medical technology effectively in curbing mortality. We derive the skill- and age-specific individual demand for health care based on the value of life, the level of medical technology and the market prices. Calibrating the model to the development of the US economy and the longevity gap between the skilled and unskilled, we study the impact of rising effectiveness of medical care in improving individual health and examine how disparities in health care utilisation and mortality emerge as a consequence. In so doing, we explore the role of skill-biased earnings growth, skill-bias in the ability to access state-of-the art health care and to use it effectively, and skill-related differences in health insurance coverage. We pay attention to the macroeconomic feedback, especially to medical price inflation. Our findings indicate that skill-bias related to the effectiveness of health care explains a large part of the increase in the longevity with earnings-related differences in the utilisation of health care taking second place. Both channels tend to be reinforced by medical progress.

La tesi si colloca nel filone di letteratura dell' Acceleratore Finanziario, che si è sviluppato a partire dagli anni 90. Il lavoro prende le mosse dai modelli di Kiyotaki e Moore (KM,1997, 2002) e di Greenwald e Stiglitz (GS 1993, 2003). L'obiettivo è quello di tentare di rispondere ad alcuni quesiti che sorgono spontaneamente dallo studio di questa tipologia di modelli, inquadrando le idee proposte in una modellistica teorica adeguata. La tesi si compone di 7 capitoli. Nei primi due capitoli viene presentato e discusso, sia in chiave microeconomica che in chiave macroeconomica, il framework proposto da KM. Nel capitolo 3 si introduce il problema della bancarotta e si esplorano gli effetti di eventuali bancarotte sui mercati dei beni e sui mercati finanziari. Nel capitolo 4 viene presentato e discusso un articolo di Cordoba e Ripoll (2004a) nel quale gli autori sviluppano un modello à la KM introducendo il ruolo della moneta tramite l'approccio del Cash In Advance (CIA) constraint . Nel quinto capitolo viene presentato e discusso un contributo originale che introduce il ruolo della moneta nel modello di KM tramite l'approccio della Moneta nella Funzione di Utilità. Il modello è relativamente semplice possono emergere equilibri multipli e permette di esplorare gli effetti della politica monetaria sulle variabili macroeconomiche. Nel capitolo 6 si presenta un modello a generazioni sovrapposte à la Diamond-Samuelson utilizzando il framework di KM. In tale contesto la moneta ha essenzialmente il ruolo di riserva di valore (permette di incrementare il consumo e il bequest da vecchi), mentre il bequest rappresenta una risorsa a disposizione del giovane. In fine il modello presentato nel capitolo 7 è un esempio di un modello macroeconomico microfondato con vincoli finanziari e agenti eterogenei à la Greenwald-Stiglitz. Viene presentata una procedura di aggregazione che permette di ottenere le variabili macroeconomiche tenendo in considerazione il comportamento individuale degli agenti. Il modello può essere studiato tramite delle simulazioni in una struttura Agent-Based. / The dissertation could be traced back to the so called Financial Accelerator literature, that has been developed during the 90's. In particular it is essentially an attempt to adapt, modify or even subvert the basic framework proposed by Kiyotaki and Moore (KM,1997, 2002) and by Greenwald and Stiglitz (GS 1993, 2003) in order to provide answers to some questions that naturally arise from the study of these types of models. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters. Chapters 1 and 2 present and discuss the benchmark model, i.e. the framework put forward by KM, at the micro level (optimization problems of the different types of agents, market equilibrium) and at the macro level (laws of motion of macro state variables) respectively. In chapter 3 we study the conditions under which bankruptcy can occur and we explore the consequences of actual bankruptcies in terms of disruption of financial and goods markets. In chapter 4 we present and discuss a paper by Cordoba and Ripoll in which the role of money in a framework à la KM is introduced by means of the Cash In Advance (CIA) constraint approach. In chapter 5 we follow the Money In the Utility function (MIU) approach to introduce money in the original KM framework. The model seems very promising because is relatively simple, there can be multiple equilibria and the effect of a monetary injection can be explored in a straightforward way. In chapter 6 we model a KM economy in an OLG setting à la Diamond-Samuelson in which money plays basically the role of a store of value, which allows to increase consumption and bequest when old and bequest plays the role of internal resources for the young. The model presented in chapter 7 is an example of a microfounded macroeconomic model with financing constraints and heterogeneous agents of the Greenwald-Stiglitz type. An aggregation procedure is proposed in order to go from the individual to the aggregate variable. The model can be explored by means of simulations in an Agent-Based setting.

Sverige rör sig mot ett kontantlöst samhälle i en takt som uppmärksammas internationellt. Det svenska betalningsväsendet kan komma att genomgå omfattande strukturella förändringar inom snar framtid. En av dessa förändringar kan antas vara införandet av den digitala centralbanksvalutan (CBDC) e-kronan. Då språnget mot det kontantlösa samhället börjat uttrycka sig i resten av världen är olika länders centralbanker mitt uppe i att reda ut de makroekonomiska effekter som en CBDC medför. Då e-kronan är ett nytt fenomen existerar det inte någon omfattande empirisk forskning, utan förhållandesättet är fortfarande teoretiskt. Vi undersöker därför de makroekonomiska effekter som kan tänkas uppstå vid införandet av en räntebärande e-krona från kort till lång sikt, samt diskuterar möjligheten för att använda e-kronan som ett penningpolitiskt styrmedel. Vi finner utifrån en modifiering av IS-MP-PC-modellen att en räntebärande e-krona som sätts i enlighet med inflationsmålet har liknande makroekonomiska effekter som styrräntan har idag. Vidare utvidgar vi en överlappande generationsmodell och visar på en undanträngning av reala tillgångar på lång sikt vid höga räntenivåer på e-kronan relativt till räntan på reala tillgångar i ett intergenerationellt sammanhang. / Sweden is moving towards a cashless society at an internationally recognized pace. The Swedish payment system may undergo extensive structural changes in the near future. One of these changes is assumed to be the introduction of the digital central bank currency (CBDC) e-krona. As the leap towards a cashless society has begun to manifest itself in the rest of the world, various countries' central banks are in the midst of figuring out the macroeconomic effects that a CBDC brings. As the e-krona is a new phenomenon, there is no extensive empirical research and the approach is still theoretical. We therefore investigate the macroeconomic effects that may arise from the introduction of an interest-bearing e-krona from the short to the long term and discuss the possibility of using the e-krona as a monetary policy instrument. By modifying the IS-MP-PC-model we find that an interest-bearing e-krona set in accordance with the inflation target has similar macroeconomic effects as the policy rate today. Furthermore, we extend an overlapping generations model and show a crowding out effect of real assets in the long run when the interest rate on the e-krona is high relative to the interest rate on real assets in an intergenerational context.

The <u>first essay</u> [“Twin Deficits and Free Lunches: Macroeconomic Outcomes In Anticipation of Foreign Aid”] concerns itself with situations in which private agents anticipate a future windfall (free lunch) that will help service the debt resulting from a present fiscal expansion (implemented via a temporary tax cut). Such expectations of a windfall can arise in the context of natural resource discoveries or, more interestingly, due to perceptions by agents in “too important to fail” countries that will be bailed out through higher foreign aid or debt relief. We employ an overlapping generations model featuring credit constraints to study the real effects of such free lunch expectations in a small open economy, drawing contrasts with the standard tax and money finance closure rules. The model is solved analytically and shows that anticipated aid is equivalent to current aid when agents have perfect foresight, so that a temporary tax cut is seen as permanent. Accordingly, agents raise their consumption and indebtedness (at the expense of future generations) by an amount that is an increasing function of their “impatience” (subjective rates of time preference plus probability of death). A worsening of the current account obtains (twin deficits) across a range of plausible closure rules, including those featuring money finance. The introduction of credit constrained households (we study the variant where myopic agents spend their current disposable incomes) does not alter the basic result in the case of full aid finance, but does matter for mixed tax-aid regimes, in more complex settings where agent expectations and donor promises on aid diverge, and when governments face borrowing constraints so that the timing of aid delivery matters. The <u>second essay</u> [“The Role of Domestic Debt in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation For Developing Economies”] focuses on the remaining source of government financing, i.e. domestic debt, and the role it can play in mobilizing private savings, facilitating credit intermediation in higher risk settings (i.e. serving a “collateral” function on bank balance sheets), developing financial markets and supporting economic growth in general. To investigate this question empirically, we set up a new domestic debt database covering about 100 developing economies, going back three decades to 1975; explore Granger causality links between domestic debt and key macroeconomic and institutional variables; and estimate the growth impact of domestic debt using panel regressions, allowing for non-linear effects. Domestic debt, as a share of GDP is found to exert a significant positive impact on economic growth, with potential channels including domestic savings mobilization, provision of risk-insurance on banks’ balance sheets; and greater institutional accountability of the state to its citizens. Although this result countervails more established arguments against domestic debt (i.e. that it leads to crowding out and banks to become lazy), there is some evidence that above a ratio of 35 percent of bank deposits, domestic debt does begin to undermine economic growth. The growth payoff also depends on debt quality, with higher payoffs observed for positive interest-rate bearing marketable debt issued to nonbank sectors. The <u>third and final essay</u> [“Why Do Banks in Developing Economies Hold Domestic Government Securities?”] explores demand-side determinants of domestic debt, by focusing on commercial bank holdings of government paper, discriminating carefully between voluntary factors (such as mean-variance portfolio optimization) and statutory ones (cash reserve and capital adequacy requirements). The analysis is made possible by the construction of a dataset on government and private returns (real and nominal) for almost 600 banks from 70 emerging and low-income economies, spanning the (pre-Basel II) period 1995-2005. A battery of structural cross-section regressions indicates that banks’ portfolio decisions are at least as significantly influenced by mean-variance considerations as regulatory factors: the actual portfolio share of government securities (λ) responds intuitively, and sizably, to variations in the moments of the distributions for government and private returns as well as in the minimum-variance portfolio share (λ*). Higher cash reserve requirements tilt portfolios away from government securities toward riskier private lending, while higher capital adequacy requirements work the other way. The association between actual portfolios and the identified determinants is noticeably weaker at lower ends of the λ distribution, suggesting the domination of non-CAPM factors in those contexts.