L’objectif principal de notre thèse consiste à évaluer l’impact du programme national de mise à niveau sur la compétitivité des PME/PMI algériennes qui ont suivi et finalisé ce type de programme. Pour ce faire, nous avons appliqué deux approches, il s’agit de l’approche univariée et l’approche multivariée. Dans la première approche, nous avons utilisé trois méthodes, à savoir : test de Student et test de Wilcoxon, en plus d’un modèle de régression simple. Tandis que dans, la seconde approche, nous avons appliqué un modèle de régression multiple. Par ailleurs, l'analyse empirique porte sur des données de panel d’un échantillon de 67 entreprises algériennes observées durant la période 1997 à 2008. Notre thèse est composée de quatre chapitres. Les deux premiers chapitres avaient pour objectif de faire le point sur la problématique de la compétitivité et de la mise à niveau des entreprises, en se référant à quelques expériences étrangères. Tandis que le troisième et le quatrième chapitre avaient pour objectif, d’abord, de présenter les stratégies et politiques de mise à niveau des PME/PMI algériennes afin d’effectuer une étude économétrique de l’effet escompté de la mise à niveau sur les différents indicateurs de compétitivité. / The principal aim of our thesis is to assess the impact of national program of upgrading on the competitiveness of Algerian Enterprises which have adopted and finalized this kind of program. To do this, we have applied two approaches in order to evaluate the impact of the upgrading; it is the univariate and multivariate approach. In the first approach, we have utilized three methods, namely: parametric test of Student and the nonparametric test of Wilcoxon, in addition a simple regression model. While the second approach apply a multiple regression model. Besides, the empirical analysis involves panel data of a sample of 67 Algerian enterprises observed during the period 1997 to 2008. Our thesis is composed of four chapters. The first chapter aims to introduce the theoretical sub-foundation useful for understanding the competitiveness while the upgrade strategies are stated in the second chapter. The third chapter presents upgrading strategies adopted in Algeria, and finally the last and fourth chapter presents the methodology and the results of the empirical evaluation of the upgrade program of the competitiveness of Algerian Enterprises.

本篇論文探討在台灣獨有的先申報後轉讓的內部人交易制度下，到底內部人申報轉讓後之執行率公布對一般大眾的影響為何呢？內部人申報轉讓後，有可能實際轉讓，也可能不轉讓或不足額轉讓，端視內部人的策略。我們把焦點放在內部人申報轉讓持股後，當市場公布執行結果後，個股交易量的表現為何。結果發現異常交易量因執行率公布後獲知內部人之淨買淨賣行為而有所增加；但內部人無淨買賣時,交易量無明顯異常。

This thesis consists of four papers and the main theme present is dependence, through time as in serial correlation, and across individuals, as in random effects. The individual papers may be grouped in many different ways. As is, the first two are concerned with autoregressive dynamics in a single time series and then a panel context, while the subject of the final two papers is parametric covariance modeling. Though set in a panel context the results in the latter are generally applicable. The approach taken is Bayesian. This choice is prompted by the coherent framework that the Bayesian principle offers for quantifying uncertainty and subsequently making inference in the presence of it. Recent advances in numerical methods have also made the Bayesian choice simpler. In the first paper an existing model to conduct inference directly on the roots of the autoregressive polynomial is extended to include seasonal components and to allow for a polynomial trend of arbitrary degree. The resulting highly flexible model robustifies against misspecification by implicitly averaging over different lag lengths, number of unit roots and specifications for the deterministic trend. An application to the Swedish real GDP illustrates the rich set of information about the dynamics of a time series that can be extracted using this modeling framework. The second paper offers an extension to a panel of time series. Limiting the scope, but at the same time simplifying matters considerably, the mean model is dropped restricting the applicability to non-trending panels. The main motivation of the extension is the construction of a flexible panel unit root test. The proposed approach circumvents the classical confusing problem of stating a relevant null hypothesis. It offers the possibility of more distinct inference with respect to unit root composition in the collection of time series. It also addresses the two important issues of model uncertainty and cross-section correlation. The model is illustrated using a panel of real exchange rates to investigate the purchasing power parity hypothesis. Many interesting panel models imply a structure on the covariance matrix in terms of a small number of parameters. In the third paper, exploiting this structure it is demonstrated how common panel data models lend themselves to direct sampling of the variance parameters. Not necessarily always practical, the implementation can be described by a simple and generally applicable template. For the method to be practical, simple to program and quick to execute, it is essential that the inverse of the covariance matrix can be written as a reasonably simple function of the parameters of interest. Also preferable but in no way necessary is the availability of a computationally convenient expression for the determinant of the covariance matrix as well as a bounded support for the parameters. Using the template, the computations involved in direct sampling and effect selection are illustrated in the context of a one- and two-way random effects model respectively. Having established direct sampling as a viable alternative in the previous paper, the generic template is applied to panel models with serial correlation in the fourth paper. In the case of pure serial correlation, with no random effects present, applying the template and using a Jeffreys type prior leads to very simple computations. In the very general setting of a mixed effects model with autocorrelated errors direct sampling of all variance parameters does not appear to be possible or at least not obviously practical. One important special case is identified in the model with the random individual effects model with autocorrelation. / <p>Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2004 viii s., s. 1-9: sammanfattning, s. 10-116: 4 uppsatser</p>

The purpose of this thesis is to empirically explore the characteristics of the monetary transmission mechanism, with a particular emphasis on the role of banks, in Turkey. By looking at the banking sector at the micro level and exploiting dynamic panel data modeling approaches, the heterogeneity in banks&rsquo / response in terms of their lending and risk-taking to changes in policy interest rates is analyzed. The first essay is an empirical analysis of the bank lending channel of monetary transmission. In this regard, the lending behavior of banks operating over the period 1988-2009 is examined. Given the changes in the policy stance and developments in the financial system following the 2000-01 crisis, the analysis is further conducted for the two sub-periods: 1988-2001 and 2002 2009, to examine whether there is a change in the functioning of the credit channel. Empirical evidence suggests cross sectional heterogeneity in banks&rsquo / response to monetary policy changes during 1988-2009. Regarding the results of the pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, it is found that an operative bank lending channel existed in 1988-2001, however its impact became much stronger thereafter. Furthermore, there are significant differences in the distributional effects due to bank specific characteristics in the impact of monetary policy on credit supply between the two sub-periods. The second essay investigates the existence of risk-taking channel of monetary policy by using quarterly data over the period 2002-2012. Four alternative risk measures are used in the analysis / three accounting-based risk indicators and a market-based indicator. Our findings show that low levels of interest rates have a positive impact of banks&rsquo / risk-taking behavior for all risk measures. In terms of bank specific characteristics, our results imply that large, liquid and well-capitalized banks are less prone to risk-taking.

Paper [I] studies equality of opportunity in Sweden. The distinction between circumstances that constrain an individual’s opportunities and the individual choices also affecting a particular outcome is the main idea of theories of equality of opportunity. In this study, equality of opportunity is analyzed for Swedish data using a large set of variables indicating different circumstances likely to affect an individual’s opportunities. A semiparametric model is estimated to allow for a possible nonlinear relation between parental income and the income of the adult child. The reason is a hypothesis that a constrained investment behavior would make the relationship nonlinear. The results indicate significant inequality of opportunities. However, they do not indicate a nonlinear relationship between parental income and the income of the adult child. Thus, the hypothesis that low income families will have a constrained investment behavior in human capital formation is brought into question as the explanation of intergenerational income correlation in Sweden. Paper [II] focuses on the persistence of poverty in Sweden. The purpose is to distinguish between two different reasons why poverty could persist on an individual level. By using a sample of identical twins, this study takes advantage of the similarity within pairs of twins to separate family specific heterogeneity from true state dependence, where the experience of poverty leads to a higher risk of future poverty. The results, based on a four variate probit model, show the importance of true state dependence in poverty. When using the information on whether an individual received social assistance as a measure of poverty, family specific heterogeneity explains between 24 and 31 percent of the poverty persistence in the sample. Paper [III] analyzes the consequences of unemployment for a Swedish sample of couples. The purpose is to estimate the possible income replacement that a spouse can provide. Unemployment can also affect the probability that the couples split up. Since not all couples remain in the analysis, a potential selection problem can occur. To deal with this problem, and also to take care of unobserved heterogeneity, a sample selection model for panel data is estimated. The results indicate that it is necessary to take into account the selection problem. A period in unemployment is found to be correlated with a higher female income only in the case of men who earned a fairly high income before becoming unemployed. Women who earned a fairly low income and were subject to a long period of unemployment are found to be compensated by a higher male income.

This thesis consists of three self-contained essays about absenteeism. Essay I analyzes if the design of the insurance system affects work absence, i.e. the classic insurance problem of moral hazard. Several reforms of the sickness insurance system were implemented during the period 1991-1996. Using Negative binomial models with fixed effects, the analysis show that both workers and employers changed their behavior due to the reforms. We also find that the extent of moral hazard varies depending on work contract structures. The reforms reducing the compensation levels decreased workers’ absence, both the number of absent days and the number of absence spells. The reform in 1992, introducing sick pay paid by the employers, also decreased absence levels, which probably can be explained by changes in personnel policy such as increased use of monitoring and screening of workers. Essay II examines the background to gender differences in work absence. Women are found, as in many earlier studies, to have higher absence levels than men. Our analysis, using finite mixture models, reveals that there are a group of women, comprised of about 41% of the women in our sample, that have a high average demand of absence. Among men, the high demand group is smaller consisting of about 36% of the male sample. The absence behavior differs as much between groups within gender as it does between men and women. The access to panel data covering the period 1971-1991 enables an analysis of the increased gender gap over time. Our analysis shows that the increased gender gap can be attributed to changes in behavior rather than in observable characteristics. Essay III analyzes the difference in work absence between natives and immigrants. Immigrants are found to have higher absence than natives when measured as the number of absent days. For the number of absence spells, the pattern for immigrants and natives is about the same. The analysis, using panel data and count data models, show that natives and immigrants have different characteristics concerning family situation, work conditions and health. We also find that natives and immigrants respond differently to these characteristics. We find, for example, that the absence of natives and immigrants are differently related to both economic incentives and work environment. Finally, our analysis shows that differences in work conditions and work environment only can explain a minor part of the ethnic differences in absence during the 1980’s.

I prezzi dei generi alimentari sono cresciuti in modo considerevole in Etiopia a partire dal 2004. Questa tesi esamina a fondo gli effetti distributivi degli alti prezzi dei generi alimentari nelle zone rurali dell’Etiopia. Utilizzando il Rapporto di Beneficio Netto non parametrico ed il Sistema Quadratico di Domanda Quasi Ideale nonché stimando la Variazione Compensata, dimostra come gli alti prezzi dei generi alimentari possano avere effetti positivi sul benessere sociale delle famiglie rurali a livello aggregato. Tuttavia, i guadagni non sono distribuiti uniformemente tra le famiglie; una significativa percentuale di esse sono compratrici nette di cereali e potrebbero essere sfavorite da un aumento dei prezzi dei cereali qualora non beneficiassero di un aumento del reddito associato ad attività diverse dall’agricoltura. Teoreticamente, le famiglie rurali dovrebbero beneficiare di un aumento del prezzo dei generi alimentari poiché sono sia produttori sia consumatori dei prodotti. Un aumento della produttività agricola, attraverso l’intensificazione e la diversificazione delle produzioni, è un’importante strumento di politica economica che può limitare gli effetti negativi, di breve e di lungo periodo, sugli acquirenti netti rurali di generi alimentari derivanti da un aumento del loro prezzo. La tesi esamina anche la resilienza alla mancanza di cibo, la stagionalità nel consumo del cibo e la partecipazione nel mercato così come il ruolo dei trasferimenti monetari e delle preferenze dei beneficiari degli stessi. / Food prices in Ethiopia considerably rose since 2004. This thesis thoroughly examines the distributional impacts of high food prices in rural Ethiopia. Using the non-parametric Net Benefit Ratio analysis as well as Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and estimating Compensated Variation, it shows high food prices have positive impact on the welfare of rural households at aggregate levels. The gains, however, are not evenly distributed among households; large proportion of them are net cereal buyers (major staples) and could be adversely affected by rising cereal prices unless compensated by increase in income from off-farm activities. Theoretically, rural households should benefit from rising food prices as they are both consumers and producers of the products. Promoting agricultural productivity, through intensification and diversification, is an important policy tool to overcome short and long-run negative impacts of high food prices on rural net buyers. It also examines resilience to food insecurity, food consumption seasonality and market participation as well as cash transfers and beneficiaries preferences.

This paper examines the impact of financial sector foreign direct investment (FSFDI) on economic growth by estimating a panel data model for 11 Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) between 1996 and 2003 in a cross-country growth accounting framework. The analysis concentrates on the efficiency channel linking FSFDI to economic growth. The results clearly indicate that there can be a relationship between FSFDI and economic growth. Approaching a medium degree of financial M&A is rewarded by higher economic growth after two periods. Beyond it, FSFDI seems to spur economic growth depending on a higher human capital stock. FSFDI-induced knowledge-spillovers to domestic banks can be an explanation for this phenomenon. Above a certain threshold, the crowding-out of local physical capital caused by the entry of a foreign bank seems to hamper economic growth. The value of the paper lies in (1) providing novel data on FSFDI in CEECs, (2) analyzing the impact of FDI on a sectoral level and (3) in modeling the hitherto only qualitatively discussed relationship between foreign banks and economic development into a structural, econometric model that combines two streams of economic research: the FDI-growth-literature and the finance-growth-literature. (author's abstract) / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut

Hur påverkar högre utbildningsnivå brottslighet? Den här uppsatsen undersöker effekt av eftergymnasial utbildning på våldsbrott respektive stöld-, rån- och häleribrott. Vår första hypotes är att eftergymnasial utbildning har en minskande effekt på våldsbrott genom högre alternativkostnad av brott samt att psykologiska faktorer påverkas positivt. Vår andra hypotes är att eftergymnasial utbildning har en ökande effekt på stöld-, rån- och häleribrott via högre avkastning till följd av mer kunskap för planering och utförande av denna typen av brott. Vidare förmodas en högre utbildningsnivå  generera mer tillgänglig egendom vilket leder till tilltagande incitament för stöld-, rån- och häleribrott. Förhållandena analyseras ekonometriskt med paneldata över Sveriges 21 län under tidsperioden 2000 till 2008. Prais-Winsten estimering används för skattning av linjär regression, där kontrollvariabler för bland annat demografi och arbetsmarknadseffekter inkluderas. Resultatet visar att eftergymnasial utbildning har en signifikant negativ effekt  på våldsbrott. Vi finner vidare att verkan av eftergymnasial utbildning på stöld-, rån och häleribrott är signifikant positiv. / How does higher education affect crime? This thesis examines the effect of post-secondary education on crime of violence and property related crime. Our first hypothesis is that a higher education level reduces crime of violence through higher opportunity costs and that psychological factors are affected in a positive way. Our second hypothesis is that a higher education level raises the return of property related crimes and therefore increases the same. This is due to more knowledge to be used for planning and execution of this type of crime and that the available property is assumed to be of a greater magnitude, which in turn leads to higher incentives for property related crime. The relationships are being econometrically analyzed with panel data consisting of observations of the 21 Swedish regions over the time period 2000 to 2008. The method of Prais-Winsten estimation is used to estimate a linear relationship, controlling for variables such as demographic and labor market effects. The results show that a higher education level has a significant negative effect on crime of violence. Furthermore we find that the effect of a higher education level on property related crime is significantly positive.

This study explores two issues, one is to investigate the determinants of net interest margins and bank risk-taking from 1993 to 2001 in a partial universal banking system, taking Taiwan as our example, and the other is to provide some empirical evidences of exchange ratio determination of bank mergers in Taiwan. In the first topic, the partial universal banking system here is a mix of the conventional commercial banking system (whose activity is mainly loan-deposit taking) and the universal banking system (engaging in both loan-deposit and investment activities). We employ the recently developed method of the panel data threshold regression method to estimate the determinant function of the net interest margin and bank risk-taking model. It is found that the corporate governance plays an important role in explaining the recent behavior of the banking industry. The empirical results show that the net interest margins in the commercial banking system are affected by credit risk, interest rate risk, the degree of leverage and management quality, unlike the net interest margins in the universal banking system which are more sensitive to only-credit risk and the degree of leverage. Moreover, the relationship between managerial ownership and credit risk taking behavior is inverse U-shape in the commercial banking system, consistent with the corporate control hypothesis, unlike U-shape relation in the universal banking system that supports moral-hazard hypothesis. In the second topic, we not only extend Larson and Gonedes (1969) merger exchange ratio model to taking account of market risk and more participants but also apply Marsh-Merton dividend behavior reduced form (1987) to estimate the expected post-merger price-earnings ratio. Taking the first case of the bank merger according to the Financial Institution Merger Law as our sample, we find that the L-G model indicates the interval of exchange ratios that enhance, or at least not cause any diminution in the wealth positions of all parties to a proposed bank merger. Also, the bargaining area offers some information to help merger candidates to negotiate final actual exchange ratio.