Cette thèse est composée de trois essais, chacun contribuant à mieux comprendre la façon dont différents types de relations politiques affectent les stratégies d'expansion internationale et la performance des entreprises. Le premier essai examine le rôle des relations politiques comme modérateur de la relation entre les attributs du pays hôte et le choix d’investir dans ce pays par des entreprises. Nous examinons le cas des premiers investissements dans les pays concernés par des entreprises du secteur manufacturier au cours de la période 2003-2010. Les autres essais examinent le rôle des relations politiques comme antécédents directs des décisions et des performances des stratégies d'expansion internationale des entreprises. Le deuxième essai étudie l’influence des différents types de relations politiques dans l’ampleur et le profil de risque des investissements internationaux des entreprises. Enfin, le troisième essai analyse le rôle des connexions politiques en tant que facteur explicatif de la capacité des entreprises à accélérer le financement et le développement de leurs projets. Les deux derniers essais sont testés sur une base de données originale recensant les relations politiques dont bénéficient les plus grandes entreprises françaises au cours de la période 2003-2012. / This dissertation is composed of the three essays, each contributing to address part of the puzzle regarding how different types of political connections affect firms’ international expansion strategies and performance. The first essay examines how political connections moderate the relationship between host country attributes and international strategy in a sample of greenfield investments in manufacturing during the 2003-2010 period. The second and third essays examine how political connections directly impact a firm’s international expansion strategies and performance. The second essay investigates the role of different types of political connections on a firm’s international investments amount and risk profile. Finally, the third essay analyzes the role of political connections as an explanatory factor of firms’ ability to accelerate the provision of funding and development of their project finance-based investments. Both the latter two essays rely on an original dataset on various political connections enjoyed by the largest French firms during the 2003-2012 period.

This thesis consists of two parts: Part I (Chapters 2 and 3) critically assesses a set of methodological tools that are widely used in the literature and that are applied to the empirical analysis in Part II (Chapters 4 and 5). Using a randomised experiment, the first chapter compares pen-and-paper interviewing (PAPI) with computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). We observe a large error count in PAPI, which is likely to introduce sample bias. We examine the effect of PAPI consumption measurement error on poverty analysis and compare both applications in terms of interview length, costs and respondents’ perceptions. Next, we formalise an unproven source of ordinary least squares estimation bias in standard linear-in-means peer effects models. Deriving a formula for the magnitude of the bias, we discuss its underlying parameters. We show when the bias is aggravated in models adding cluster fixed effects and how it affects inference and interpretation of estimation results. We reveal that two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation strategies eliminate the bias and provide illustrative simulations. The results may explain some counter-intuitive findings in the social interaction literature. We then use the linear-in-means model to estimate endogenous peer effects on the awareness of a community-based development programme of vulnerable groups in rural Tanzania. We denote the geographically nearest neighbours set as the relevant peer group in this context and employ a popular 2SLS estimation strategy on a unique spatial household dataset, collected using CAPI, to identify significant average and heterogeneous endogenous peer effects. The final chapter investigates social network effects in decentralised food aid (free food and food for work) allocation processes in Ethiopia, in the aftermath of a serious drought. We find that food aid is responsive to need, as well as being targeted at households with less access to informal support. However, we also find strong correlations with political connections, especially in the immediate aftermath of the drought.

This dissertation discusses three issues. First, we provide a thorough survey of political connections in the essay “A Survey of Political Connection Literature.” Then two empirical studies on political connections are presented in the following two essays, “Do Political Preferences Affect Investor Trading Behavior and Market Reaction?” and “The Relationship between Ownership Structure and the Value of Political Connections: Evidence from the Taiwanese Presidential Election and Global Financial Crisis of 2008,” respectively. Last, we present the conclusions in the final chapter. From the survey in the first essay, the impacts of political connections on firm value and corporate finance issues are discussed. A number of recent studies have found that political connections create value for firms when these connections are considered beneficial. Thus, in the second essay, we are motivated to investigate what kind of stock market investors would take such advantages that increase the value of their portfolio. We are also motivated by the argument in the literature that the officials’ rent-seeking behavior to establish political connections may bear some costs for the firms. Then, in the third essay, we address the question whether the value of political connections is associated with the firms’ managerial ownership structure. We organize our three essays into Chapters 2 to 4, respectively, and we briefly describe these issues below. Chapter 2 provides the theoretical and empirical background of this dissertation. We survey extant research on political connections, with special attention to its importance on corporate finance. First we discuss whether and how political connections affect firm value. Then we turn to the channel through which political connections affect firm value. For instance, political connections help firms obtain more external funds with lower costs, which results in a decline in the required rate of return and an increase in the market value. Studies that discuss the characteristics of politically connected firms are also surveyed in this essay. In Chapter 3, the essay discusses whether or not political preferences bring value to a firm. We approach the issue by checking the share trading and stock returns of politically connected firms during the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election. In particular, we classify investors into sophisticated and non-sophisticated investors. The political preference hypothesis is proposed to explore whether the trading behavior of the two types of investors shifts when their favorite political party loses or wins during a Presidential Election. First, a sophisticated investor holds more shares in the firm connected with the winning political party, but has fewer shares in the losing party. However, this may not hold for non-sophisticated investors. Second, firms connected with the winning party exhibit positive stock returns, whereas firms connected with the losing party do not experience the same success. Finally, the increment shares of sophisticated investors in firms connected with the winning party are positively correlated with the stock returns around the time of the election. Specifically, sophisticated investors invest more on firms connected with the winning party, thus obtaining more abnormal returns. However, the results may not hold for non-sophisticated investors. Consequently, foreign investors are found to be sophisticated investors and political preference brings market value to this kind of investors. In Chapter 4, the essay examines the relationship between ownership structure and the value of political connections. We address this issue with the data of Taiwanese publicly-traded firms during the 2008 Taiwanese Presidential Election and the 2008 global financial crisis. First, following the literature, the value of political connections is examined through the positive abnormal stock returns of the winning-party-connected firms during the election. Then we find a negative relationship between the value of political connections and the deviation of management group’s control rights from cash flow rights. Second, using the collapse of Lehman Brothers as an exogenous shock to control for the overall decline in investment opportunity, we find that politically connected firms with managers possessing more excess control rights underperformed in stock returns than firms without such potentially entrenched managers. Thus, studies that do not consider the inverse impacts of potential expropriation tend to present an incomplete picture of the value of political connections.

La tesi consisteix en quatre assaigs sobre les causes i conseqüències de la intervenció del govern en l'economia, i un assaig sobre els efectes de la immigració en el país amfitrió. El primer capítol quantifica els retorns econòmics de les connexions polítiques, i examina els canals a través dels quals aquestes afecten les empreses. El segon capítol estudia la relació entre la confiança entre els individus i les preferències d'aquests per la intervenció governamental, i utilitza aquesta relació per reinterpretar evidència existent sobre els efectes de les regulacions. El tercer capítol examina la substitució entre els mercats financers i les pensions publiques, com a dos alternatives per proveir la jubilació. El quart capítol estima els efectes de la fragmentació política sobre la velocitat de les reformes estructurals, centrant-se en el cas particular de les privatitzacions. Finalment, l'últim capítol investiga empíricament la relació entre immigració i crim. / The thesis collects four essays about the causes and consequences of government intervention in the economy and one essay about the effects of immigration. The first chapter quantifies the private returns and the social costs of political connections. The second chapter studies the relationship between individual trust toward the others and preferences for government intervention, and it draws the implications of this relationship for re-interpreting previous evidence about the effects of regulation. The third chapter examines the substitutability between financial markets and public pensions as two alternative ways to provide for retirement. The fourth chapter estimates the effect of political fragmentation on the timing of structural reforms, focusing in particular on privatization. Finally, the last chapter empirically investigates the relationship between immigration and crime.

Submitted by Maria Fernanda Arreola Croda (fernanda.arreola@gmail.com) on 2014-08-18T13:40:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Maria Fernanda Arreola.pdf: 1365605 bytes, checksum: bc44261ba0ee9e9106bd00f16c83014f (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by PAMELA BELTRAN TONSA (pamela.tonsa@fgv.br) on 2014-08-18T13:42:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Maria Fernanda Arreola.pdf: 1365605 bytes, checksum: bc44261ba0ee9e9106bd00f16c83014f (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-18T13:48:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese Maria Fernanda Arreola.pdf: 1365605 bytes, checksum: bc44261ba0ee9e9106bd00f16c83014f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-28 / This thesis is a collection of three different research projects analyzing the effect of state ownership in the internationalization of Emerging Multinationals (EMNEs). The participation of the state as shareholder is a phenomenon that can bring new light into the governance, management and strategic impact of having states participate as owners in different levels. These studies will allow us to explore, from different perspectives, the extent to which states, while owners, can impact the EMNE. The studies thee contained go from exploring the selection mechanisms for a firm to become the target of state ownership to its effect on the internationalization pace, passing through the revision of the mechanisms available for the state to gain control and access to a firm’s decision making, through changes to its corporate governance. / Esta tese é um compendio de três trabalhos de pesquisa que visam analisar o efeito da participação do estado na estrutura de propriedade das Multinacionais de Países Emergentes (EMNEs). A participação do estado como acionista é um fenómeno que pode trazer novas contribuições no âmbito da governança corporativa, administração da empresa e a tomada de decisões estratégicas. Os estudos aqui inclusos permitem identificar, a partir de momentos, diferentes, até que ponto o estado, na posição de proprietário da EMNE, pode impactar a mesma. Os trabalhos vão desde os mecanismos de escolha de firmas nas quais investir ate o impacto no ritmo de internacionalização das empresas, explicando também os mecanismos que o estado usa para ganhar aceso à tomada de decisões por meio de mudanças na governança corporativa