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Zambia ranks as one of the lowest cost producers of sugar. However, Zambia’s domestic sugar price has been high and volatile and is substantially higher than the world price. This has raised concern among stakeholders and further raises questions about the efficient functioning of the market. The study sought to determine and explain efficiency and integration in Zambia’s sugar value chain by analysing price spreads, price formation, and price transmission through a price transmission and partial equilibrium model. The study hypothesised that the Zambian sugar market is both inefficient and it is not integrated with the world market. This was tested through the price transmission and partial equilibrium models. Price transmission is conceptually premised on the Law of One Price (LOP) which postulates that in a frictionless undistorted market, the difference between markets spatially separated should only be explained by transaction costs. To test the hypothesis long-run equilibrium between prices was tested through a series of cointegration tests and an Error Correction model (ECM) was built for cointegrating price series. Model simulations were run and tests for asymmetry for cointegrating price series were conducted. A partial equilibrium framework was developed to determine price formation for Zambia’s sugar market from a number of behavioural equations. The study establishes cointegration in the spatial price transmission (between world sugar prices and Zambia’s wholesale prices) and vertically (between the domestic wholesale prices and sugarcane prices). The ECM for the spatial price transmission reveals low integration and efficiency evidenced by the low speed of adjustment, the Error Correction Term (ECT) of -0.09 and the model simulation, which shows that it takes approximately 3 years for the markets to revert to long run equilibrium after experiencing a price shock. The study also establishes that the spatial price adjustment is asymmetric. The vertical price transmission analysis reveals that it is relatively more integrated and efficient as it has a higher speed of adjustment (ECT of 0.199) which is twice that of the spatial price transmission. The model simulation reveals that it takes about 1 year and 6 months to revert to long run equilibrium after experiencing a shock. The vertical price adjustment is also found to be symmetric. A negative short-run elasticity of -0.29 is found for the spatial price transmission while the long-run transmission is found to be inelastic (0.91 ) which is close to unitary elasticity. The short-run vertical transmission is found to be very inelastic (0.009 ) while the long-run transmission of 0.94 is similar to the spatial transmission (inelastic but close to unitary). Farm to Retail Price Spreads are found to be widening with growing volatility owing to the volatile nature of the Retail Value. While the Farm Value has been increasing, recent spikes experienced in the Retail Value have resulted in an overall widening of the Farm to Retail Price Spread. The partial equilibrium analysis indicates that the price formation in Zambia’s sugar market is determined by the world price through the export parity price, domestic demand, supply conditions as well as policy. The elasticity between Zambia’s sugar price and the export parity price is found to be unitary (1.09). The price space analysis reveals that although Zambia’s domestic price is correlated with the export parity prices it is trending closer to the import parity price. This suggests that there are distortions in the sugar market, which may include high transaction costs, high concentration in the market structure as well as inappropriate policies such as high taxation, high interest rates and a policy requiring fortification of all sugar with Vitamin A, which are driving the domestic price upwards to exceed the export parity price. The sugar baseline for Zambia is generated for 2012 to 2015 based on a number of assumptions in the exogenous variables. Sugar production domestic use and exports are on the rise while the domestic price rises in 2011, falling between 2013 and 2014 then rising in 2014 to 2015. Model simulation of the removal and/or modification of the policy requiring sugar fortification reveals that there is an increase in the flow of imports to about 25,000 tons per year. This results in a 3.2 per cent loss in production and a 6.1 per cent gain in exports while the domestic sugar price falls by 23.9 US Cents/kg (18.8 per cent). Thus Zambia gains in terms of increased consumer welfare and producer welfare because production losses are offset by revenue gains through exports since the world price also increases. The study recommends that transaction costs which include transportation costs, energy, taxation which are pushing the domestic price upwards need to be lowered. The study emphasises the need to promote investments in the sugar industry especially for smaller emerging sugar mills by lowering interest rates and taxes as well as a need to strengthen competition laws governing the industry which will protect consumers,would-be- investors and cane producers from uncompetitive pricing. It further recomments the lifting and /or modification of the barrier on imports of unfortified sugar but stresses that government can allow raw sugar imports which can be fortified in Zambia. A more open and undistorted sugar market in Zambia will result in a competitive, efficient and integrated market governed by market dynamics. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc(Agric))--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development / unrestricted

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2007. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains vii, 102 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 91-94).

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2001. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains xix, 315 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 85-92).

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2002. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains ix, 132 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 106-109).

This thesis deals with the analysis and numerical simulation of different partial differential equation models arising in socioeconomic sciences. It is divided into two parts: The first part deals with a mean-field price formation model introduced by Lasry andLions in 2007. This model describes the dynamic behaviour of the price of a good being traded between a group of buyers and a group of vendors. Existence (locally in time) of smooth solutions is established, and obstructions to proving a global existence result are examined. Also, properties of a regularised version of the model are explored and numerical examples are shown. Furthermore, the possibility of reconstructing the initial datum given a number of observations, regarding the price and the transaction rate, is considered. Using a variational approach, the problem can be expressed as a non-linear constrained minimization problem. We show that the initial datum is uniquely determined by the price (identifiability). Furthermore, a numerical scheme is implemented and a variety of examples are presented. The second part of this thesis treats two different models describing the motion of (large) human crowds. For the first model, introduced by R.L. Hughes in 2002, several regularised versions are considered. Existence and uniqueness of entropy solutions are proven using the technique of vanishing viscosity. In one space dimension, the dynamic behaviour of solutions of the original model is explored for some special cases. These results are compared to numerical simulations. Moreover, we consider a discrete cellular automaton model introduced by A. Kirchner and A. Schadschneider in 2002.By (formally) passing to the continuum limit, we obtain a system of partial differential equations. Some analytical properties, such as linear stability of stationary states, areexamined and extensive numerical simulations show capabilities and limitations of the model in both the discrete and continuous setting.

Rising levels of uncertainty and distrust of governments and mass printing of fiat currencies in conjunction with pandemic-related events have led to a rotation into different assets such as cryptos. Without solid fundamentals, cryptocurrencies have spiked in price levels in the last few years; while popularity rises it remains heavily misunderstood. This study looks into the factors that specifically influence the cryptocurrency Ethereum's price volatility. According to previous literature and existing theories, it gathers seven explanatory variables that should impact the volatility and applies a GARCH (1,1) model. The study finds that the variables Google trends, hash rate, S&P 500, address count, and trade volume impacted the volatility. With only the hash rate and S&P 500 lowering the volatility. Both the ARCH and GARCH terms were significant, with the latter having the bigger coefficient, implying that the past volatility should be accounted for when forecasting future volatility. The findings within this study align with previous literature and other studies on different cryptos. It concludes that while Ethereum is still volatile and is in its growing phase it is headed in a positive direction in terms of stabilization. Further research or a repeated identical/similar study should be conducted again once the market has matured further.

Thesis (M.S.)--West Virginia University, 2004. / Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains xiv, 225 p. : ill. (some col.), maps (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references (p. 113-116).

Lic.-avh. Uppsala : Sveriges lantbruksuniv., 2009. / Härtill 2 uppsatser.

Nous construisons un simulateur de marche financier multi-agent. Dans cette marche l'échange des actions n'est pas fait en continu. Le prix de marché est formé à l'aide d'un carnet d'ordres. Les investisseurs que l'on modélise reçoivent de l'information biaisée et ils essayent de maximiser leur richesse. Les différents types d'investisseurs, comme les bruiteurs, chartistes ou informées, coexistent dans notre marche. On montre comment les faites stylises peuvent être causée par la présence des investisseurs chartistes ou par des simple délais dans l'information. Nous montrons comment les bulles de prix sont possibles dans un marché avec des investisseurs bien informés. On découvre que c'est profitable, pour un investisseur informé, d'adopter dans certaines moments des stratégies techniques. A partir de nos résultats nous proposons une nouvelle théorie sur la dynamique des marchés financiers, appelé « marches parfois efficientes ». / We construct an agent-based computer simulated financial market. Trading in this market is not continuous. The market price is formed using a limit-order book. The modelled investors receive biased information and they attempt to maximize their wealth. Different traders, from noise to chartist and informed, coexist in the same market. We show how stylized facts can be formed by the presence of chartists or a simple lag in investor information. Price bubbles can arise when market prices are dominated by technical traders. Interestingly we show that well informed investors can earn more if the adopt, in special situations, a technical strategy. Using our results we propose a new theorem for market dynamics called “sometimes efficient markets”.