Submitted by Divisão de Documentação/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2018-09-11T13:46:43Z No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Dissertação Pericles Balderrama.pdf: 2562430 bytes, checksum: 225d4c2dd608f78114e9938de2d5861a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-11T13:46:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license_rdf: 0 bytes, checksum: d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e (MD5) Dissertação Pericles Balderrama.pdf: 2562430 bytes, checksum: 225d4c2dd608f78114e9938de2d5861a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-09 / This dissertation proposes a heuristic that uses the concept of market and the process of price formation as guidelines for the generation of routes in a factory plant scenario. The assumption is that the economic market is efficient in allocating scarce resources and that the price agglutinates in a single number the complexity of the productive process, simplifying the system of evaluation of economic agents. In this way, the price is adopted as the main variable in the selection of the sections that compose the routes. The price definition considered in the proposal differs from the cost per an updated variable considering only the market, that is, the interactions between economic agents. The market is modeled and implemented to simulate the movement of inputs in a manufacturing space, this space consisting of production cells interconnected by a transport grid in which the mobile robots carry inputs between the central warehouse and the production cells. In the proposed context robots are consumer economic agents and the crate of the grid are the traded products, there is a vendor that caters to all the robots. In the implementation of the proposed heuristic the Dijkstra algorithm is used to detect to the stretches that form the route with the minimum price in the market at a certain instant / Este trabalho propõe uma heurística que utiliza o conceito de mercado e no processo de formação de preço como diretrizes para a geração de rotas em um cenário de uma planta fabril. Assume-se como premissa que o mercado econômico é eficiente em alocar os recursos escassos e que o preço aglutina em um único número a complexidade do processo produtivo, simplificando o sistema de avaliação dos agentes econômicos. Desta forma, adota-se o preço como principal variável na seleção dos trechos que compõem as rotas. A definição de preço considerada na proposta diferencia-se do custo por se uma variável atualizada considerando unicamente o mercado, ou seja, as interações entre os agentes econômicos. O mercado é modelado e implementado para simular a movimentação de insumos em um espaço fabril, espaço este constituido por células de produção interligadas por uma grade de transporte na qual os robôs moveis transportam insumos entre o deposito central e as células de produção. No contexto proposto os robôs são agentes econômicos consumidores e os treicho da grade são os produtos negociados, existe um vendedor que atende a todos o conjunto de robôs. Na implementação da heurística proposta o algoritmo Dijkstra é utilizado para detectar aos trechos que forma a rota com o preço mínimo no mercado em determinado instante.

This thesis studies mean-field games (MFGs) models of price formation. The thesis focuses explicitly on a MFGs price formation model proposed by Gomes and Saude. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part examines the deterministic supply case, while the second part extends the model to incorporate a stochastic supply function. We explore different approaches, such as Aubry-Mather theory, to study the properties of the MFGs price formation model and alternative formulations using a convex variational problem with constraints. We propose machine-learning-based numerical methods to approximate the solution of the MFGs price formation model in the deterministic and stochastic setting.

During the past 30 years, the proliferation of electronic trading has catalysed profound structural change in the global foreign exchange (FX) spot market. Today, more than 60% of the market's volume occurs via electronic trading platforms, which provide traders with round-the-clock market access from anywhere in the world. Such platforms offer several practical benefits that have encouraged market participation from a broad new class of financial institutions and have thereby spurred market growth. The most widely used electronic trading platforms in the FX spot market incorporate several features that differentiate them from those used in other financial markets. These features raise many important questions about order flow, market state, price formation, trader behaviour, and volatility. Despite the enormous trade volumes that such platforms facilitate, these questions have received almost no attention to date. In this thesis, we study a recent, high-quality data set from a large electronic trading platform in the FX spot market in order to investigate several aspects of trading via this mechanism. We calculate a wide range of statistics regarding order flow and market state, and we highlight how our findings contrast to those reported by empirical studies of electronic trading platforms in other markets. We study the autocorrelation properties of returns, absolute returns, and order flow, and we investigate the extent to which the market's organization impacts price formation. We also introduce a model designed to reproduce the most important properties of trading via such a platform. We derive several results regarding the model's temporal evolution, and we simulate the model to investigate how the interactions between individual traders influence volatility. We conclude that electronic trading platforms in the FX spot market retain many desirable features of centralized markets while providing traders with explicit control over their personal trading partnerships.

On propose une perspective originale d'analyser les différents flux hautes fréquences d'information provenant des marchés financiers et fournit des modèles simples et intuitives qui reflètent étroitement la réalité. On observe les données empiriques et note certains faits stylisés et propose des modèles pour capturer ces faits. Dans le chapitre 1, on passe en revue les définitions et propriétés de base des marchés électroniques. En particulier, on revoit les travaux de microstructure et de modélisation du marché, et leurs relations à ce travail. On introduit la taille du "tick", qu'on utilise pour classifier les actifs et interpréter les différents résultats. Dans le chapitre 2, on montre empiriquement que l'impact d'une seule transaction dépend de la durée inter-transactions. En effet, lorsque le taux des échanges devient plus rapide, la variance des rendements des transactions augmente fortement et que ce comportement persiste à des échelles de temps plus grossières. On montre également que la valeur du spread augmente avec l'activité et on en déduit que les carnets d'ordres sont plus vide lorsque le taux des échanges est élevé. Dans le chapitre 3, on présente un modèle pour capturer le bruit de microstructure. Les prix des actifs sont représentés par la somme des rendements "tick" arrivant à des temps de Poisson aléatoires. Le modèle se compose d'une martingale diffusive contaminée par un bruit autocorrélé mais disparaissant aux échelles grossières. On est capable de capturer la signature de la variance et l'autocorrélation faible mais significative des rendements "tick". Dans le chapitre 4, on utilise les processus ponctuels de Hawkes pour modéliser l'arrivée aléatoire des transactions. On modélise la transformation échelle fine - échelle grossière des prix et en particulier l'effet sur les moments des rendements des prix. On propose une technique simple d'estimation non paramétrique de la structure de dépendance des processus de Hawkes dans le cas unidimensionnel et dans quelques cas particuliers multidimensionnels. On applique la méthode à des actifs de Future et trouve des noyaux de dépendance en loi de puissance.

[pt] Esta dissertação tem como objetivo inicial testar a hipótese de que um agente não informado pode comprar ou vender qualquer quantidade de uma ação ao preço de mercado no período de um dia. O teste proposto é baseado na relação de preço entre ações de diferentes classes de uma mesma empresa, listadas na Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo, no período de 2004 a 2009. O segundo objetivo é, utilizando dados de microestrutura de mercado, quantificar a compensação paga pela falta de liquidez. Os resultados corroboram a visão de que o investidor marginal não enfrenta curvas de oferta de liquidez perfeitamente elásticas no intervalo de um dia. / [en] The first goal of this thesis is to test the hypothesis that a non informed agent can buy or sell any quantity of a stock at its current market price in one day. The test is based on the price difference of preferred and common stocks from the same company, listed on the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo - the Brazilian stock exchange, from 2004 to 2009. Secondly, microstructure data was used to measure the compensation paid by investors because markets lack perfect liquidity. Results corroborate the view that the marginal investor does not face perfectly elastic supply curves of liquidity in one day.

abstract: The uncertainty and variability associated with stochastic resources, such as wind and solar, coupled with the stringent reliability requirements and constantly changing system operating conditions (e.g., generator and transmission outages) introduce new challenges to power systems. Contemporary approaches to model reserve requirements within the conventional security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) models may not be satisfactory with increasing penetration levels of stochastic resources; such conventional models pro-cure reserves in accordance with deterministic criteria whose deliverability, in the event of an uncertain realization, is not guaranteed. Smart, well-designed reserve policies are needed to assist system operators in maintaining reliability at least cost. Contemporary market models do not satisfy the minimum stipulated N-1 mandate for generator contingencies adequately. This research enhances the traditional market practices to handle generator contingencies more appropriately. In addition, this research employs stochastic optimization that leverages statistical information of an ensemble of uncertain scenarios and data analytics-based algorithms to design and develop cohesive reserve policies. The proposed approaches modify the classical SCUC problem to include reserve policies that aim to preemptively anticipate post-contingency congestion patterns and account for resource uncertainty, simultaneously. The hypothesis is to integrate data-mining, reserve requirement determination, and stochastic optimization in a holistic manner without compromising on efficiency, performance, and scalability. The enhanced reserve procurement policies use contingency-based response sets and post-contingency transmission constraints to appropriately predict the influence of recourse actions, i.e., nodal reserve deployment, on critical transmission elements. This research improves the conventional deterministic models, including reserve scheduling decisions, and facilitates the transition to stochastic models by addressing the reserve allocation issue. The performance of the enhanced SCUC model is compared against con-temporary deterministic models and a stochastic unit commitment model. Numerical results are based on the IEEE 118-bus and the 2383-bus Polish test systems. Test results illustrate that the proposed reserve models consistently outperform the benchmark reserve policies by improving the market efficiency and enhancing the reliability of the market solution at reduced costs while maintaining scalability and market transparency. The proposed approaches require fewer ISO discretionary adjustments and can be employed by present-day solvers with minimal disruption to existing market procedures. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Electrical Engineering 2018

Le développement des marchés électroniques organisés induit une pression constante sur la recherche académique en finance. L'impact sur le prix d'une transaction boursière portant sur une grande quantité d'actions sur une période courte est un sujet central. Contrôler et surveiller l'impact sur le prix est d'un grand intérêt pour les praticiens, sa modélisation est ainsi devenue un point central de la recherche quantitative de la finance. Historiquement, le calcul stochastique s'est progressivement imposé en finance, sous l'hypothèse implicite que les prix des actifs satisfont à des dynamiques diffusives. Mais ces hypothèses ne tiennent pas au niveau de la ``formation des prix'', c'est-à-dire lorsque l'on se place dans les échelles fines des participants de marché. Des nouvelles techniques mathématiques issues de la statistique des processus ponctuels s'imposent donc progressivement. Les observables (prix traité, prix milieu) apparaissent comme des événements se réalisant sur un réseau discret, le carnet d'ordre, et ceci à des échelles de temps très courtes (quelques dizaines de millisecondes). L'approche des prix vus comme des diffusions browniennes satisfaisant à des conditions d'équilibre devient plutôt une description macroscopique de phénomènes complexes issus de la formation des prix. Dans un premier chapitre, nous passons en revue les propriétés des marchés électroniques. Nous rappelons la limite des modèles diffusifs et introduisons les processus de Hawkes. En particulier, nous faisons un compte rendu de la recherche concernant le maket impact et nous présentons les avancées de cette thèse. Dans une seconde partie, nous introduisons un nouveau modèle d'impact à temps continu et espace discret en utilisant les processus de Hawkes. Nous montrons que ce modèle tient compte de la microstructure des marchés et est capable de reproduire des résultats empiriques récents comme la concavité de l'impact temporaire. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous étudions l'impact d'un grand volume d'action sur le processus de formation des prix à l'échelle journalière et à une plus grande échelle (plusieurs jours après l'exécution). Par ailleurs, nous utilisons notre modèle pour mettre en avant des nouveaux faits stylisés découverts dans notre base de données. Dans une quatrième partie, nous nous intéressons à une méthode non-paramétrique d'estimation pour un processus de Hawkes unidimensionnel. Cette méthode repose sur le lien entre la fonction d'auto-covariance et le noyau du processus de Hawkes. En particulier, nous étudions les performances de cet estimateur dans le sens de l'erreur quadratique sur les espaces de Sobolev et sur une certaine classe contenant des fonctions « très » lisses / The development of organized electronic markets induces a constant pressure on academic research in finance. A central issue is the market impact, i.e. the impact on the price of a transaction involving a large amount of shares over a short period of time. Monitoring and controlling the market impact is of great interest for practitioners; its modeling and has thus become a central point of quantitative finance research. Historically, stochastic calculus gradually imposed in finance, under the assumption that the price satisfies a diffusive dynamic. But this assumption is not appropriate at the level of ”price formation”, i.e. when looking at the fine scales of market participants, and new mathematical techniques are needed as the point processes. The price (last trade, mid-price) appears as events on a discrete network, the order book, at very short time scales (milliseconds). The Brownien motion becomes rather a macroscopic description of the complex price formation process. In the first chapter, we review the properties of electronic markets. We recall the limit of diffusive models and introduce the Hawkes processes. In particular, we make a review of the market impact research and present this thesis advanced. In the second part, we introduce a new model for market impact model at continuous time and living on a discrete space using process Hawkes. We show that this model that takes into account the market microstructure and it is able to reproduce recent empirical results as the concavity of the temporary impact. In the third chapter, we investigate the impact of large orders on the price formation process at intraday scale and at a larger scale (several days after the meta-order execution). Besides, we use our model to discuss stylized facts discovered in the database. In the fourth part, we focus on the non-parametric estimation for univariate Hawkes processes. Our method relies on the link between the auto-covariance function and the kernel process. In particular, we study the performance of the estimator in squared error loss over Sobolev spaces and over a certain class containing "very'' smooth functions

[pt] As mudanças tecnológicas e regulatórias foram facilitadores para o surgimento dos investidores de alta frequência, HFTs, no mix de participantes do mercado financeiro. Como classe, estes investidores não constituem uma entidade coerente e seu impacto e contribuição para a formação do preço não é clara. Esse trabalho analisou 10 categorias de investidores, que se diferenciam por suas características de latência, a partir de uma base de dados composta por todas as ordens enviadas para o book de dólar futuro com vencimento em 1 de agosto de 2013, da Bolsa de Valores e Mercadorias e Futuros (BMFBovespa). Dentre toda as categorias de instidores testadas, a categoria HFT 1, a mais rápida de todas, foi a que apresentou o maior coeficiente de impacto no preço, 20 por cento, e a maior medida de contribuição relativa para a volatilidade fundamental, 10 por cento. / [en] Technological and regulatory changes were facilitators for the emergence of high frequency traders, HFTs, in the mix of financial market participants. As a class, these investors do not constitute a coherent entity and its impact and contribution to the price formation are not clear. This study analyzed 10 categories of investors, who are distinguished by their latency characteristics from a database comprised of all orders sent to the book of future dollar maturing on August 1, 2013, in the Brazilian Stock Exchange and Commodities and Futures Exchange (BMFBovespa). Among all the categories of investors tested, the HFT 1, the fastest of all, was the one that had the highest coefficient of impact on price, 20 per cent, and a larger measure of relative contribution to fundamental volatility, 10 per cent.

Este trabalho estuda a formação do preço de venda de serviços a partir de seu custo de produção, com enfoque nos serviços prestados pela autoridade municipal, buscando formular uma proposta de precificação de serviços capaz de auxiliar o gestor público em sua tomada de decisão. A proposta foi construída a partir do estudo de três áreas distintas: gestão de custos, contabilidade governamental e orçamento público municipal, onde foram obtidos os elementos necessários para seu desenvolvimento e formulação. A identificação e avaliação dos processos envolvidos na apuração do custo do serviço prestado pelo município, notadamente o serviço prestado pela Guarda Municipal de São Carlos, estado de São Paulo, foi a base para a elaboração de uma proposta de modelo de precificação do serviço prestado. A lei de responsabilidade fiscal, de maio de 2000, veio aumentar a responsabilidade do gestor público e, por conseqüência, a influência do preço dos serviços no equilíbrio das contas públicas. O método utilizado neste estudo assumiu caráter exploratório em vista da existência de pouco conhecimento sistematizado sobre o tema, como pode ser constatado pela pesquisa bibliográfica, havendo a necessidade de se adotar abordagem de busca de maior detalhamento nos relatórios de realização de despesas emitidos pela autoridade municipal. As principais conclusões desta pesquisa apontam para a grande influência do custo com mão-de-obra na formação do valor do serviço público estudado e nos conceitos de apuração de custo incorporados ao modelo apresentado, que foram os seguintes: tratamento diferenciado entre as despesas correntes e as despesas com capital no que se refere ao período de reconhecimento do custo incorrido; controle e apropriação da despesa com depreciação ao longo da vida útil das obras, instalações e materiais permanentes; separação e controle das despesas correntes em administrativas e operacionais; distribuição das despesas administrativas e controle dos custos operacionais agrupados de forma a se obter o custo independente do valor de venda do serviço. / This paper studies the services final selling price based on production cost focusing on the services made from the municipal authority searching for a proposal of the services price formation allowing the public manager taking the decision. This proposal was built up from the study of 3 different areas: cost management, governmental accountancy and municipal budget where we can have the necessary figures for its development and formulation. The identification and evaluation of the processes involved on the cost verification of the service given by the municipality mainly the one by São Carlos city municipal guard, state of São Paulo, was the basis to work up on a model proposal of the final price composition of the rendered service. The fiscal responsibility law from may, 2000 came to raise up the public manager responsibility and as a corollary to this, they exercise influence upon the services prices on the public account equilibrium. The method we use in this study has an exploratory feature upon the few knowledge of this subject, as you can see at the bibliographic research, then we need to adopt an approach to get more details at the expenses reports issued by the municipal authority. The main conclusions of this study pointed to the great influence of labor cost at the public service cost composition and the concepts of the cost verification that incorporated to the presented model, as follows: distinguished treatment between the current expenses and the expenses with the resources at the period of the cost we ran into; expenses appropriation and control with depreciation during the lifetime of the jobs, installations and permanents goods; to distinguish the expenses and its control in administrative and operational; administrative expenses distribution and operational costs control joined together to get the independent cost of the final selling service price.

<p>This study identifies the determinants of sheep prices for small-scale sheep farming households in two districts of the Eastern Cape, namely Amathole and Ukhahlamba (Joe Xabe). Output prices that small farm households receive for their sheep affect their incomes from agriculture (knowing that revenue is a product of quantity and price), which, in turn, influence their living standards. The study isolates three sets of determinants of price formation in local agricultural markets - structural drivers, institutional factors and livelihood shocks - to account for the variations in prices that smallholder farmers receive. Data were collected from 134 households that were selected using purpose sampling and preceded by key informant and focus groups interviews with actors along the sheep value chain. A questionnaire consisting of both open-ended and quantitative questions was used. The relationship between output price formation and clusters of determinants is a typical hedonic pricing framework, which is fitted using a backward stepwise econometric technique that is a widely used experimental tool to identify significant determinants.</p>