The purpose of this thesis is to conduct a detailed examination of the forward-directivity characteristics of near-fault ground motions produced in the 2010-11 Canterbury earthquakes, including evaluating the efficacy of several existing empirical models which form the basis of frameworks for considering directivity in seismic hazard assessment. A wavelet-based pulse classification algorithm developed by Baker (2007) is firstly used to identify and characterise ground motions which demonstrate evidence of forward-directivity effects from significant events in the Canterbury earthquake sequence. The algorithm fails to classify a large number of ground motions which clearly exhibit an early-arriving directivity pulse due to: (i) incorrect pulse extraction resulting from the presence of pulse-like features caused by other physical phenomena; and (ii) inadequacy of the pulse indicator score used to carry out binary pulse-like/non-pulse-like classification. An alternative ‘manual’ approach is proposed to ensure 'correct' pulse extraction and the classification process is also guided by examination of the horizontal velocity trajectory plots and source-to-site geometry. Based on the above analysis, 59 pulse-like ground motions are identified from the Canterbury earthquakes , which in the author's opinion, are caused by forward-directivity effects. The pulses are also characterised in terms of their period and amplitude. A revised version of the B07 algorithm developed by Shahi (2013) is also subsequently utilised but without observing any notable improvement in the pulse classification results. A series of three chapters are dedicated to assess the predictive capabilities of empirical models to predict the: (i) probability of pulse occurrence; (ii) response spectrum amplification caused by the directivity pulse; (iii) period and amplitude (peak ground velocity, PGV) of the directivity pulse using observations from four significant events in the Canterbury earthquakes. Based on the results of logistic regression analysis, it is found that the pulse probability model of Shahi (2013) provides the most improved predictions in comparison to its predecessors. Pulse probability contour maps are developed to scrutinise observations of pulses/non-pulses with predicted probabilities. A direct comparison of the observed and predicted directivity amplification of acceleration response spectra reveals the inadequacy of broadband directivity models, which form the basis of the near-fault factor in the New Zealand loadings standard, NZS1170.5:2004. In contrast, a recently developed narrowband model by Shahi & Baker (2011) provides significantly improved predictions by amplifying the response spectra within a small range of periods. The significant positive bias demonstrated by the residuals associated with all models at longer vibration periods (in the Mw7.1 Darfield and Mw6.2 Christchurch earthquakes) is likely due to the influence of basin-induced surface waves and non-linear soil response. Empirical models for the pulse period notably under-predict observations from the Darfield and Christchurch earthquakes, inferred as being a result of both the effect of nonlinear site response and influence of the Canterbury basin. In contrast, observed pulse periods from the smaller magnitude June (Mw6.0) and December (Mw5.9) 2011 earthquakes are in good agreement with predictions. Models for the pulse amplitude generally provide accurate estimates of the observations at source-to-site distances between 1 km and 10 km. At longer distances, observed PGVs are significantly under-predicted due to their slower apparent attenuation. Mixed-effects regression is employed to develop revised models for both parameters using the latest NGA-West2 pulse-like ground motion database. A pulse period relationship which accounts for the effect of faulting mechanism using rake angle as a continuous predictor variable is developed. The use of a larger database in model development, however does not result in improved predictions of pulse period for the Darfield and Christchurch earthquakes. In contrast, the revised model for PGV provides a more appropriate attenuation of the pulse amplitude with distance, and does not exhibit the bias associated with previous models. Finally, the effects of near-fault directivity are explicitly included in NZ-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) using the narrowband directivity model of Shahi & Baker (2011). Seismic hazard analyses are conducted with and without considering directivity for typical sites in Christchurch and Otira. The inadequacy of the near-fault factor in the NZS1170.5: 2004 is apparent based on a comparison with the directivity amplification obtained from PSHA.

Properly accounting for the uncertainties in predicting ground motion parameters is critical for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analyses (PSHA). This is particularly important for critical facilities that are designed for long return period motions. Non-ergodic PSHA is a framework that allows for this proper accounting of uncertainties. This, in turn, allows for more informed decisions by designers, owners and regulating agencies. The ergodic assumption implies that the standard deviation applicable to a specific source-path-site combination is equal to the standard deviation estimated using a database with multiple source-path-site combinations. The removal of the ergodic assumption requires dense instrumental networks operating in seismically active zones so that a sufficient number of recordings are made. Only recently, with the advent of networks such as the Japanese KiK-net network has this become possible. This study contributes to the state of the art in earthquake engineering and engineering seismology in general and in non-ergodic seismic hazard analysis in particular. The study is divided in for parts. First, an automated protocol was developed and implemented to process a large database of strong ground motions for GMPE development. A comparison was conducted between the common records in the database processed within this study and other studies. The comparison showed the viability of using the automated algorithm to process strong ground motions. On the other hand, the automated algorithm resulted in narrower usable frequency bandwidths because of the strict criteria adopted for processing the data. Second, an approach to include path-specific attenuation rates in GMPEs was proposed. This approach was applied to a subset of the KiK-net database. The attenuation rates across regions that contains volcanoes was found to be higher than other regions which is in line with the observations of other researchers. Moreover, accounting for the path-specific attenuation rates reduced the aleatoric variability associated with predicting pseudo-spectral accelerations. Third, two GMPEs were developed for active crustal earthquakes in Japan. The two GMPEs followed the ergodic and site-specific formulations, respectively. Finally, a comprehensive residual analysis was conducted to find potential biases in the residuals and propose models to predict some components of variability as a function of some input parameters. / Ph. D.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(理学) / 甲第22259号 / 理博第4573号 / 新制||理||1657(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院理学研究科地球惑星科学専攻 / (主査)教授 James Mori, 教授 久家 慶子, 教授 岩田 知孝 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

This thesis addresses two fundamental topics in Engineering Seismology; the application of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) methodology, and the estimation of measures of Strong Ground Motion. These two topics, while being related, are presented as separate sections. In the first section, state-of-the-art PSHA methodologies are applied to various sites in the Buller Region, South Island, New Zealand. These sites are deemed critical to the maintenance of economic stability in the region. A fault-source based seismicity model is developed for the region that is consistent with the governing tectonic loading, and seismic moment release of the region. In attempting to ensure this consistency the apparent anomaly between the rates of activity dictated by deformation throughout the Quaternary, and rates of activity dictated by observed seismicity is addressed. Individual fault source activity is determined following the application of a Bayesian Inference procedure in which observed earthquake events are attributed to causative faults in the study region. The activity of fault sources, in general, is assumed to be governed by bounded power law behaviour. An exception is made for the Alpine Fault which is modelled as a purely characteristic source. The calculation of rates of exceedance of various ground motion indices is made using a combination of Poissonian and time-dependent earthquake occurrence models. The various ground motion indices for which rates of exceedance are determined include peak ground acceleration, ordinates of 5% damped Spectral Acceleration, and Arias Intensity. The total hazard determined for each of these ground motion measures is decomposed using a four dimensional disaggregation procedure. From this disaggregation procedure, design earthquake scenarios are specified for the sites that are considered. The second part of the thesis is concerned with the estimation of ground motion measures that are more informative than the existing scalar measures that are available for use in New Zealand. Models are developed for the prediction of Fourier Amplitude Spectra (FAS) as well as Arias Intensity for use in the New Zealand environment. The FAS model can be used to generate ground motion time histories for use in structural and geotechnical analyses. Arias Intensity has been shown to be an important strong motion measure due to its positive correlation with damage in short period structures as well as its utility in predicting the onset of liquefaction and landslides. The models are based upon the analysis of a dataset of New Zealand Strong Motion records as well as supplementary near field records from major overseas events. While the two measures of ground motion intensity are strongly related, different methods have been adopted in order to develop the models. As part of the methodology used for the FAS model, Monte Carlo simulation coupled with a simple ray tracing procedure is employed to estimate source spectra from various New Zealand earthquakes and, consequently, a magnitude - corner-frequency relationship is obtained. In general, the parameters of the predictive equations are determined using the most state-of-the-art mixed effects regression procedures.

Planet earth is restless and one cannot control its inside activities and vibrations those leading to natural hazards. Earthquake is one of such natural hazards that have affected the mankind most. Most of the causalities due to earthquakes happened not because of earthquakes as such, but because of poorly designed structures which could not withstand the earthquake forces. The improper building construction techniques adopted and the high population density are the major causes of the heavy damage due to earthquakes. The damage due to earthquakes can be reduced by following proper construction techniques, taking into consideration of appropriate forces on the structure that can be caused due to future earthquakes. The steps towards seismic hazard evaluation are very essential to estimate an optimal and reliable value of possible earthquake ground motion during a specific time period. These predicted values can be an input to assess the seismic vulnerability of an area based on which new construction and the restoration works of existing structures can be carried out. A large number of devastating earthquakes have occurred in India in the past. The northern region of India, which is along the plate boundary of the Indian plate with the Eurasian plate, is seismically very active. The north eastern movement of Indian plate has caused deformation in the Himalayan region, Tibet and the North Eastern India. Along the Himalayan belt, the Indian and Eurasian plates converge at the rate of about 50 mm/year (Bilham 2004; Jade 2004). The North East Indian (NEI) region is known as one of the most seismically active regions in the world. However the peninsular India, which is far away from the plate boundary, is a stable continental region, which is considered to be of moderate seismic activity. Even though, the activity is considered to be moderate in the Peninsular India, world’s deadliest earthquake occurred in this region (Bhuj earthquake 2001). The rapid drifting of Indian plate towards Himalayas in the north east direction with a high velocity along with its low plate thickness might be the cause of high seismicity of the Indian region. Bureau of Indian Standard has published a seismic zonation map in 1962 and revised it in 1966, 1970, 1984 and 2002. The latest version of the seismic zoning map of India assigns four levels of seismicity for the entire Country in terms of different zone factors. The main drawback of the seismic zonation code of India (BIS-1893, 2002) is that, it is based on the past seismic activity and not based on a scientific seismic hazard analysis. Several seismic hazard studies, which were taken up in the recent years, have shown that the hazard values given by BIS-1893 (2002) need to be revised (Raghu Kanth and Iyengar 2006; Vipin et al. 2009; Mahajan et al. 2009 etc.). These facts necessitate a comprehensive study for evaluating the seismic hazard of India and development of a seismic zonation map of India based on the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) values. The objective of this thesis is to estimate the seismic hazard of entire India using updated seismicity data based on the latest and different methodologies. The major outcomes of the thesis can be summarized as follows. An updated earthquake catalog that is uniform in moment magnitude, has been prepared for India and adjoining areas for the period till 2010. Region specific magnitude scaling relations have been established for the study region, which facilitated the generation of a homogenous earthquake catalog. By carefully converting the original magnitudes to unified MW magnitudes, we have removed a major obstacle for consistent assessment of seismic hazards in India. The earthquake catalog was declustered to remove the aftershocks and foreshocks. Out of 203448 events in the raw catalog, 75.3% were found to be dependent events and remaining 50317 events were identified as main shocks of which 27146 events were of MW ≥ 4. The completeness analysis of the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website the catalog was carried out to estimate completeness periods of different magnitude ranges. The earthquake catalog containing the details of the earthquake events until 2010 is uploaded in the website A quantitative study of the spatial distribution of the seismicity rate across India and its vicinity has been performed. The lower b values obtained in shield regions imply that the energy released in these regions is mostly from large magnitude events. The b value of northeast India and Andaman Nicobar region is around unity which implies that the energy released is compatible for both smaller and larger events. The effect of aftershocks in the seismicity parameters was also studied. Maximum likelihood estimations of the b value from the raw and declustered earthquake catalogs show significant changes leading to a larger proportion of low magnitude events as foreshocks and aftershocks. The inclusions of dependent events in the catalog affect the relative abundance of low and high magnitude earthquakes. Thus, greater inclusion of dependent events leads to higher b values and higher activity rate. Hence, the seismicity parameters obtained from the declustered catalog is valid as they tend to follow a Poisson distribution. Mmax does not significantly change, since it depends on the largest observed magnitude rather than the inclusion of dependent events (foreshocks and aftershocks). The spatial variation of the seismicity parameters can be used as a base to identify regions of similar characteristics and to delineate regional seismic source zones. Further, Regions of similar seismicity characteristics were identified based on fault alignment, earthquake event distribution and spatial variation of seismicity parameters. 104 regional seismic source zones were delineated which are inevitable input to seismic hazard analysis. Separate subsets of the catalog were created for each of these zones and seismicity analysis was done for each zone after estimating the cutoff magnitude. The frequency magnitude distribution plots of all the source zones can be found at http://civil.iisc.ernet.in/~sitharam . There is considerable variation in seismicity parameters and magnitude of completeness across the study area. The b values for various regions vary from a lower value of 0.5 to a higher value of 1.5. The a value for different zones vary from a lower value of 2 to a higher value of 10. The analysis of seismicity parameters shows that there is considerable difference in the earthquake recurrence rate and Mmax in India. The coordinates of these source zones and the seismicity parameters a, b & Mmax estimated can be directly input into the Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The seismic hazard evaluation of the Indian landmass based on a state-of-the art Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) study has been performed using the classical Cornell–McGuire approach with different source models and attenuation relations. The most recent knowledge of seismic activity in the region has been used to evaluate the hazard incorporating uncertainty associated with different modeling parameters as well as spatial and temporal uncertainties. The PSHA has been performed with currently available data and their best possible scientific interpretation using an appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainty by considering alternative models (source models, maximum magnitude in hazard computations, and ground-motion attenuation relationships). The hazard maps have been produced for horizontal ground motion at bedrock level (Shear wave velocity ≥ 3.6 km/s) and compared with the earlier studies like Bhatia et al., 1999 (India and adjoining areas); Seeber et al, 1999 (Maharashtra state); Jaiswal and Sinha, 2007 (Peninsular India); Sitharam and Vipin, 2011 (South India); Menon et al., 2010 (Tamilnadu). It was observed that the seismic hazard is moderate in Peninsular shield (except the Kutch region of Gujarat), but the hazard in the North and Northeast India and Andaman-Nicobar region is very high. The ground motion predicted from the present study will not only give hazard values for design of structures, but also will help in deciding the locations of important structures such as nuclear power plants. The evaluation of surface level PGA values is of very high importance in the engineering design. The surface level PGA values were evaluated for the entire study area for four NEHRP site classes using appropriate amplification factors. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the ground level PGA values can be obtained from the respective map. In the absence of VS30 values, the site classes can be identified based on local geological conditions. Thus this method provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the surface level PGA values. The evaluation of PGA values for different site classes were evaluated based on the PGA values obtained from the DSHA and PSHA. This thesis also presents VS30 characterization of entire country based on the topographic gradient using existing correlations. Further, surface level PGA contour map was developed based on the same. Liquefaction is the conversion of formally stable cohesionless soils to a fluid mass, due to increase in pore pressure and is prominent in areas that have groundwater near the surface and sandy soil. Soil liquefaction has been observed during the earthquakes because of the sudden dynamic earthquake load, which in turn increases the pore pressure. The evaluation of liquefaction potential involves evaluation of earthquake loading and evaluation of soil resistance to liquefaction. In the present work, the spatial variation of the SPT value required to prevent liquefaction has been estimated using a probabilistic methodology, for entire India. To summarize, the major contribution of this thesis are the development of region specific magnitude correlations suitable for Indian subcontinent and an updated homogeneous earthquake catalog for India that is uniform in moment magnitude scale. The delineation and characterization of regional seismic source zones for a vast country like India is a unique contribution, which requires reasonable observation and engineering judgement. Considering complex seismotectonic set up of the country, the present work employed numerous methodologies (DSHA and PSHA) in analyzing the seismic hazard using appropriate instrument such as the logic tree to explicitly account for epistemic uncertainties considering alternative models (For Source model, Mmax estimation and Ground motion prediction equations) to estimate the PGA value at bedrock level. Further, VS30 characterization of India was done based on the topographic gradient, as a first level approach, which facilitated the development of surface level PGA map for entire country using appropriate amplification factors. Above factors make the present work very unique and comprehensive touching various aspects of seismic hazard. It is hoped that the methodology and outcomes presented in this thesis will be beneficial to practicing engineers and researchers working in the area of seismology and geotechnical engineering in particular and to the society as a whole.

Many researchers have pointed out that the accumulation of strain energy in the Penninsular Indian Shield region may lead to earthquakes of significant magnitude(Srinivasan and Sreenivas, 1977; Valdiya, 1998; Purnachandra Rao, 1999; Seeber et al., 1999; Ramalingeswara Rao, 2000; Gangrade and Arora, 2000). However very few studies have been carried out to quantify the seismic hazard of the entire Pennisular Indian region. In the present study the seismic hazard evaluation of South Indian region (8.0° N - 20° N; 72° E - 88° E) was done using the deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard approaches. Effects of two of the important geotechnical aspects of seismic hazard, site response and liquefaction, have also been evaluated and the results are presented in this work. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) at ground surface level was evaluated by considering the local site effects. The liquefaction potential index (LPI) and factor of safety against liquefaction wee evaluated based on performance based liquefaction potential evaluation method. The first step in the seismic hazard analysis is to compile the earthquake catalogue. Since a comprehensive catalogue was not available for the region, it was complied by collecting data from different national (Guaribidanur Array, Indian Meterorological Department (IMD), National Geophysical Research Institute (NGRI) Hyderabad and Indira Gandhi Centre for Atomic Research (IGCAR) Kalpakkam etc.) and international agencies (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS), International Seismological Centre (ISC), United States Geological Survey (USGS) etc.). The collected data was in different magnitude scales and hence they were converted to a single magnitude scale. The magnitude scale which is chosen in this study is the moment magnitude scale, since it the most widely used and the most advanced scientific magnitude scale. The declustering of earthquake catalogue was due to remove the related events and the completeness of the catalogue was analysed using the method suggested by Stepp (1972). Based on the complete part of the catalogue the seismicity parameters were evaluated for the study area. Another important step in the seismic hazard analysis is the identification of vulnerable seismic sources. The different types of seismic sources considered are (i) linear sources (ii) point sources (ii) areal sources. The linear seismic sources were identified based on the seismotectonic atlas published by geological survey of India (SEISAT, 2000). The required pages of SEISAT (2000) were scanned and georeferenced. The declustered earthquake data was superimposed on this and the sources which were associated with earthquake magnitude of 4 and above were selected for further analysis. The point sources were selected using a method similar to the one adopted by Costa et.al. (1993) and Panza et al. (1999) and the areal sources were identified based on the method proposed by Frankel et al. (1995). In order to map the attenuation properties of the region more precisely, three attenuation relations, viz. Toto et al. (1997), Atkinson and Boore (2006) and Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2007) were used in this study. The two types of uncertainties encountered in seismic hazard analysis are aleatory and epistemic. The uncertainty of the data is the cause of aleatory variability and it accounts for the randomness associated with the results given by a particular model. The incomplete knowledge in the predictive models causes the epistemic uncertainty (modeling uncertainty). The aleatory variability of the attenuation relations are taken into account in the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis by considering the standard deviation of the model error. The epistemic uncertainty is considered by multiple models for the evaluation of seismic hazard and combining them using a logic tree. Two different methodologies were used in the evaluation of seismic hazard, based on deterministic and probabilistic analysis. For the evaluation of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) and spectral acceleration (Sa) values, a new set of programs were developed in MATLAB and the entire analysis was done using these programs. In the deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) two types of seismic sources, viz. linear and point sources, were considered and three attenuation relations were used. The study area was divided into small grids of size 0.1° x 0.1° (about 12000 grid points) and the PHA and Sa values were evaluated for the mean and 84th percentile values at the centre of each of the grid points. A logic tree approach, using two types of sources and three attenuation relations, was adopted for the evaluation of PHA and Sa values. Logic tree permits the use of alternative models in the hazard evaluation and appropriate weightages can be assigned to each model. By evaluating the 84th percentile values, the uncertainty in spectral acceleration values can also be considered (Krinitzky, 2002). The spatial variations of PHA and Sa values for entire South India are presented in this work. The DSHA method will not consider the uncertainties involved in the earthquake recurrence process, hypocentral distance and the attenuation properties. Hence the seismic hazard analysis was done based on the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), and the evaluation of PHA and Sa values were done by considering the uncertainties involved in the earthquake occurrence process. The uncertainties in earthquake recurrence rate, hypocentral location and attenuation characteristic were considered in this study. For evaluating the seismicity parameters and the maximum expected earthquake magnitude (mmax) the study area was divided into different source zones. The division of study area was done based on the spatial variation of the seismicity parameters ‘a’ and ‘b’ and the mmax values were evaluated for each of these zones and these values were used in the analysis. Logic tree approach was adopted in the analysis and this permits the use of multiple models. Twelve different models (2 sources x 2 zones x 3 attenuation) were used in the analysis and based on the weightage for each of them; the final PHA and Sa values at bed rock level were evaluated. These values were evaluated for a grid size of 0.1° x 0.1° and the spatial variation of these values for return periods of 475 and 2500 years (10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years) are presented in this work. Both the deterministic and probabilistic analyses highlighted that the seismic hazard is high at Koyna region. The PHA values obtained for Koyna, Bangalore and Ongole regions are higher than the values given by BIS-1893(2002). The values obtained for south western part of the study area, especially for parts of kerala are showing the PHA values less than what is provided in BIS-1893(2002). The 84th percentile values given DSHA can be taken as the upper bound PHA and Sa values for South India. The main geotechnical aspects of earthquake hazard are site response and seismic soil liquefaction. When the seismic waves travel from the bed rock through the overlying soil to the ground surface the PHA and Sa values will get changed. This amplification or de-amplification of the seismic waves depends on the type of the overlying soil. The assessment of site class can be done based on different site classification schemes. In the present work, the surface level peak ground acceleration (PGA) values were evaluated based on four different site classes suggested by NEHRP (BSSC, 2003) and the PGA values were developed for all the four site classes based on non-linear site amplification technique. Based on the geotechnical site investigation data, the site class can be determined and then the appropriate PGA and Sa values can be taken from the respective PGA maps. Response spectra were developed for the entire study area and the results obtained for three major cities are discussed here. Different methods are suggested by various codes to Smooth the response spectra. The smoothed design response spectra were developed for these cities based on the smoothing techniques given by NEHRP (BSSC, 2003), IS code (BIS-1893,2002) and Eurocode-8 (2003). A Comparison of the results obtained from these studies is also presented in this work. If the site class at any location in the study area is known, then the peak ground acceleration (PGA) values can be obtained from the respective map. This provides a simplified methodology for evaluating the PGA values for a vast area like South India. Since the surface level PGA values were evaluated for different site classes, the effects of surface topography and basin effects were not taken into account. The analysis of response spectra clearly indicates the variation of peak spectral acceleration values for different site classes and the variation of period of oscillation corresponding to maximum Sa values. The comparison of the smoothed design response spectra obtained using different codal provisions suggest the use of NEHRP(BSSC, 2003) provisions. The conventional liquefaction analysis method takes into account only one earthquake magnitude and ground acceleration values. In order to overcome this shortfall, a performance based probabilistic approach (Kramer and Mayfield, 2007) was adopted for the liquefaction potential evaluation in the present work. Based on this method, the factor of safety against liquefaction and the SPT values required to prevent liquefaction for return periods of 475 and 2500 years were evaluated for Bangalore city. This analysis was done based on the SPT data obtained from 450 boreholes across Bangalore. A new method to evaluate the liquefaction return period based on CPT values is proposed in this work. To validate the new method, an analysis was done for Bangalore by converting the SPT values to CPT values and then the results obtained were compared with the results obtained using SPT values. The factor of safety against liquefaction at different depths were integrated using liquefaction potential index (LPI) method for Bangalore. This was done by calculating the factor of safety values at different depths based on a performance based method and then the LPI values were evaluated. The entire liquefaction potential analysis and the evaluation of LPI values were done using a set of newly developed programs in MATLAB. Based on the above approaches it is possible to evaluate the SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction for any given return period. An analysis was done to evaluate the SPT and CPT values required to prevent liquefaction for entire South India for return periods of 475 and 2500 years. The spatial variations of these values are presented in this work. The liquefaction potential analysis of Bangalore clearly indicates that majority of the area is safe against liquefaction. The liquefaction potential map developed for South India, based on both SPT and CPT values, will help hazard mitigation authorities to identify the liquefaction vulnerable area. This in turn will help in reducing the liquefaction hazard.

One of the most difficult tasks towards designing earthquake resistant structures is the determination of critical earthquakes. Conceptually, these are the ground motions that would induce the critical response in the structures being designed. The quantification of this concept, however, is not easy. Unlike the linear response of a structure, which can often be obtained by using a single spectrally modified ground acceleration history, the nonlinear response is strongly dependent on the phasing of ground motion and the detailed shape of its spectrum. This necessitates the use of a suite (bin) of ground acceleration histories having phasing and spectral shapes appropriate for the characteristics of the earthquake source, wave propagation path, and site conditions that control the design spectrum. Further, these suites of records may have to be scaled to match the design spectrum over a period range of interest, rotated into strike-normal and strike-parallel directions for near-fault effects, and modified for local site conditions before they can be input into time-domain nonlinear analysis of structures. The generation of these acceleration histories is cumbersome and daunting. This is especially so due to the sheer magnitude of the data processing involved. The purpose of this thesis is the development and documentation of PC-based computational tools (hereinafter called EQTools) to provide a rapid and consistent means towards systematic assembly of representative strong ground motions and their characterization, evaluation, and modification within a performance-based seismic design framework. The application is graphics-intensive and every effort has been made to make it as user-friendly as possible. The application seeks to provide processed data which will help the user address the problem of determination of the critical earthquakes. The various computational tools developed in EQTools facilitate the identification of severity and damage potential of more than 700 components of recorded earthquake ground motions. The application also includes computational tools to estimate the ground motion parameters for different geographical and tectonic environments, and perform one-dimensional linear/nonlinear site response analysis as a means to predict ground surface motions at sites where soft soils overlay the bedrock. While EQTools may be used for professional practice or academic research, the fundamental purpose behind the development of the software is to make available a classroom/laboratory tool that provides a visual basis for learning the principles behind the selection of ground motion histories and their scaling/modification for input into time domain nonlinear (or linear) analysis of structures. EQTools, in association with NONLIN, a Microsoft Windows based application for the dynamic analysis of single- and multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems (Charney, 2003), may be used for learning the concepts of earthquake engineering, particularly as related to structural dynamics, damping, ductility, and energy dissipation. / Master of Science

Water distribution systems, electrical power transmission systems, and other civil infrastructure systems are essential to the smooth and stable operation of regional economies. Since the functions of such infrastructure systems often are inter-dependent, the systems sometimes suffer unforeseen functional disruptions. For example, the widespread power outage due to the malfunction of an electric power substation, which occurred in the northeastern United States and parts of Canada in August 2003, interrupted the supply of water to several communities, leading to inconvenience and economic losses. The sequence of such failures leading to widespread outages is referred to as a cascading failure. Assessing the vulnerability of communities to natural and man-made hazards should take the possibility of such failures into account. In seismic risk assessment, the risk to a facility or a building is generally specified by one of two basic approaches: through a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) and a stipulated scenario earthquake (SE). A PSHA has been widely accepted as a basis for design and evaluation of individual buildings, bridges and other facilities. However, the vulnerability assessment of distributed infrastructure facilities requires a model of spatial intensity of earthquake ground motion. Since the ground motions from a PSHA represent an aggregation of earthquakes, they cannot model the spatial variation in intensity. On the other hand, when a SE-based analysis is used, the spatial correlation of seismic intensities must be properly evaluated. This study presents a new methodology for evaluating the functionality of an infrastructure system situated in a region of moderate seismicity considering functional interactions among the systems in the network, cascading failure, and spatial correlation of ground motion. The functional interactions among facilities in the systems are modeled by fault trees, and the impact of cascading failures on serviceability of a networked system is computed by a procedure from the field of operations research known as a shortest path algorithm. The upper and lower bound solutions to spatial correlation of seismic intensities over a region are obtained.

Mankind is facing the problem due to earthquake hazard since prehistoric times. Many of the developed and developing countries are under constant threats from earthquakes hazards. Theories of plate tectonics and engineering seismology have helped to understand earthquakes and also to predicate earthquake hazards on a regional scale. However, the regional scale hazard mapping in terms of seismic zonation has been not fully implemented in many of the developing countries like India. Agglomerations of large population in the Indian cities and poor constructions have raised the risk due to various possible seismic hazards. First and foremost step towards hazard reduction is estimation of the seismic hazards in regional scale. Objective of this study is to estimate the seismic hazard parameters for Lucknow, a part of Indo-Gangetic Basin (IGB) and develop regional scale microzonation map. Lucknow is a highly populated city which is located close to the active seismic belt of Himalaya. This belt came into existence during the Cenozoic era (40-50 million years ago) and is a constant source of seismic threats. Many of the devastating earthquakes which have happened since prehistoric times such as 1255 Nepal, 1555 Srinagar, 1737 Kolkata, 1803 Nepal, 1833 Kathmandu, 1897 Shillong, 1905 Kangra, 1934 Bihar-Nepal, 1950 Assam and 2005 Kashmir. Historic evidences show that many of these earthquakes had caused fatalities even up to 0.1 million. At present, in the light of building up strains and non-occurrence of a great event in between 1905 Kangra earthquake and 1934 Bihar-Nepal earthquake regions the stretch has been highlighted as central seismic gap. This location may have high potential of great earthquakes in the near future. Geodetic studies in these locations indicate a possible slip of 9.5 m which may cause an event of magnitude 8.7 on Richter scale in the central seismic gap. Lucknow, the capital of Uttar Pradesh has a population of 2.8 million as per Census 2011. It lies in ZONE III as per IS1893: 2002 and can be called as moderate seismic region. However, the city falls within 350 km radial distance from Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and active regional seismic source of the Lucknow-Faizabad fault. Considering the ongoing seismicity of Himalayan region and the Lucknow-Faizabad fault, this city is under high seismic threat. Hence a comprehensive study of understanding the earthquake hazards on a regional scale for the Lucknow is needed. In this work the seismic microzonation of Lucknow has been attempted. The whole thesis is divided into 11 chapters. A detailed discussion on the importance of this study, seismicity of Lucknow, and methodology adopted for detailed seismic hazard assessment and microzonation are presented in first three chapters. Development of region specific Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE) and seismic hazard estimation at bedrock level using highly ranked GMPEs are presented in Chapters 4 and 5 respectively. Subsurface lithology, measurement of dynamic soil properties and correlations are essential to assess region specific site effects and liquefaction potential. Discussion on the experimental studies, subsurface profiling using geotechnical and geophysical tests results and correlation between shear wave velocity (SWV) and standard penetration test (SPT) N values are presented in Chapter 6. Detailed shear wave velocity profiling with seismic site classification and ground response parameters considering multiple ground motion data are discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Chapters 9 and 10 present the assessment of liquefaction potential and determination of hazard index with microzonation maps respectively. Conclusions derived from each chapter are presented in Chapter 11. A brief summary of the work is presented below: Attenuation relations or GMPEs are important component of any seismic hazard analysis which controls accurate prediction of the hazard values. Even though the Himalayas have experienced great earthquakes since ancient times, suitable GMPEs which are applicable for a wide range of distance and magnitude are limited. Most of the available regional GMPEs were developed considering limited recorded data and/or pure synthetic ground motion data. This chapter presents development of a regional GMPE considering both the recorded as well as synthetic ground motions. In total 14 earthquakes consisting of 10 events with recorded data and 4 historic events with Isoseismal maps are used for the same. Synthetic ground motions based on finite fault model have been generated at unavailable locations for recorded events and complete range distances for historic earthquakes. Model parameters for synthetic ground motion were arrived by detailed parametric study and from literatures. A concept of Apparent Stations (AS) has been used to generate synthetic ground motion in a wide range of distance as well as direction around the epicenter. Synthetic ground motion data is validated by comparing with available recorded data and peak ground acceleration (PGA) from Isoseismal maps. A new GMPE has been developed based on two step stratified regression procedure considering the combined dataset of recorded and synthetic ground motions. The new GMPE is validated by comparing with three recently recorded earthquakes events. GMPE proposed in this study is capable of predicting PGA values close to recorded data and spectral acceleration up to period of 2 seconds. Comparison of new GMPE with the recorded data of recent earthquakes shows a good matching of ground motion as well as response spectra. The new GMPE is applicable for wide range of earthquake magnitudes from 5 to 9 on Mw scale. Reduction of future earthquake hazard is possible if hazard values are predicted precisely. A detailed seismic hazard analysis is carried out in this study considering deterministic and probabilistic approaches. New seismotectonic map has been generated for Lucknow considering a radial distance of 350 km around the city centre, which also covers active Himalayan plate boundaries. Past earthquakes within the seismotectonic region have been collected from United State Geological Survey (USGS), Northern California Earthquake Data Centre (NCEDC), Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Seismic Atlas of India and its Environs (SEISAT) etc. A total of 1831 events with all the magnitude range were obtained. Collected events were homogenized, declustered and filtered for Mw ≥ 4 events. A total of 496 events were found within the seismic study region. Well delineated seismic sources are compiled from SEISAT. Superimposing the earthquake catalogue on the source map, a seismotectonic map of Lucknow was generated. A total of 47 faults which have experienced earthquake magnitude of 4 and above are found which are used for seismic hazard analysis. Based on the distribution of earthquake events on the seismotectonic map, two regions have been identified. Region I which shows high density of seismic events in the area in and around of Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) and Region II which consists of area surrounding Lucknow with sparse distribution of earthquake events. Data completeness analysis and estimation of seismic parameter “a” and “b” are carried out separately for both the regions. Based on the analysis, available earthquake data is complete for a period of 80 years in both the regions. Using the complete data set, the regional recurrence relations have been developed. It shows a “b” value of 0.86 for region I and 0.9 for Region II which are found comparable with earlier studies. Maximum possible earthquake magnitude in each source has been estimated using observed magnitude and doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter relation. The study area of Lucknow is divided into 0.015o x 0.015o grid size and PGA at each grid has been estimated by considering all sources and the three GMPEs. A Matlab code was generated for seismic hazard analysis and maximum PGA value at each grid point was determined and mapped. Deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) shows that maximum expected PGA values at bedrock level varies from 0.05g in the eastern part to 0.13g in the northern region. Response spectrum at city centre is also developed up to a period of 2 seconds. Further, Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out and PGA values for 10 % and 2 % probability of exceedence in 50 years have been estimated and mapped. PSHA for 10 % probability shows PGA variation from 0.035g in the eastern parts to 0.07g in the western and northern parts of Lucknow. Similarly PSHA for 2 % probability of exceedence indicates PGA variation from 0.07g in the eastern parts while the northern parts are expecting PGA of 0.13g. Uniform hazard spectra are also developed for 2 % and 10 % probability for a period of up to 2 seconds. The seismic hazard analyses in this study show that the northern and western parts of Lucknow are more vulnerable when compared to other part. Bedrock hazard values completely change due to subsoil properties when it reaches the surface. A detailed geophysical and geotechnical investigation has been carried out for subsoil profiling and seismic site classification. The study area has been divided into grids of 2 km x 2 km and roughly one geophysical test using MASW (Multichannel Analysis Surface Wave) has been carried out in each grid and the shear wave velocity (SWV) profiles of subsoil layers are obtained. A total of 47 MASW tests have been carried out and which are uniformly distributed in Lucknow. In addition, 12 boreholes have also been drilled with necessary sampling and measurement of N-SPT values at 1.5 m interval till a depth of 30 m. Further, 11 more borelog reports are collected from the same agency hired for drilling the boreholes. Necessary laboratory tests are conducted on disturbed and undisturbed soil samples for soil classification and density measurement. Based on the subsoil informations obtained from these boreholes, two cross-sections up to a depth of 30 m have been generated. These cross-sections show the presence of silty sand in the top 10 m at most of the locations followed by clayey sand of low to medium compressibility till a depth of 30 m. In between the sand and clay traces of silt were also been found in many locations. In addition to these boreholes, 20 deeper boreholes (depth ≥150 m) are collected from Jal Nigam (Water Corporation) Lucknow, Government of Uttar Pradesh. Typical cross-section along the alignment of these deeper boreholes has been generated up to 150 m depth. This cross-section shows the presence of fine sand near Gomati while other locations are occupied by surface clayey sand. Also, the medium sand has been found in the western part of the city at a depth of 110 m which continues till 150 m depth. On careful examination of MASW and boreholes with N-SPT, 17 locations are found very close and SWV and N-SPT values are available up to 30 m depth. These SWV and N-SPT values are complied and used to develop correlations between SWV and N-SPT for sandy soil, clayey soil and all soil types. This correlation is the first correlation for IGB soil deposits considered measured data up to 30 m. The new correlation is verified graphically using normal consistency ratio and standard percentage error with respect to measured N-SPT and SWV. Further, SWV and N-SPT profiles are used Another important earthquake induced hazard is liquefaction. Even though many historic earthquakes caused liquefaction in India, very limited attempt has been made to map liquefaction potential in IGB. In this study, a detailed liquefaction analysis has been carried out for Lucknow a part of Ganga Basin to map liquefaction potential. Initially susceptibility of liquefaction for soil deposits has been assessed by comparing the grain size distribution curve obtained from laboratory tests with the range of grain size distribution for potentially liquefiable soils. Most of surface soil deposits in the study area are susceptible to liquefaction. At all the 23 borehole locations, measured N-SPT values are corrected for (a) Overburden Pressure (CN), (b) Hammer energy (CE), (c) Borehole diameter (CB), (d) presence or absence of liner (CS), (e) Rod length (CR) and (f) fines content (Cfines). Surface PGA values at each borehole locations are used to estimate Cyclic Stress Ratio (CSR). Corrected N-SPT values [(N1)60CS] are used to estimate Cyclic Resistance Ratio (CRR) at each layer. CSR and CRR values are used to estimate Factor of Safety (FOS) against liquefaction in each layer. Least factor safety values are indentified from each location and presented liquefaction factor of safety map for average and maximum amplified PGA values. These maps highlight that northern, western and central parts of Lucknow are very critical to critical against liquefaction while southern parts shows moderate to low critical area. The entire alignment of river Gomati falls in very critical to critical regions for liquefaction. Least FOS shows worst scenario and does not account thickness of liquefiable soil layers. Further, these FOS values are used to determine Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI) of each site and developed LPI map. Based on LPI map, the Gomati is found as high to very high liquefaction potential region. Southern and the central parts of Lucknow show low to moderate liquefaction potential while the northern and western Lucknow has moderate to high liquefaction potential. All possible seismic hazards maps for Lucknow have been combined to develop final microzonation map in terms of hazard index values. Hazard index maps are prepared by combining rock PGA map, site classification map in terms of shear wave velocity, amplification factor map, and FOS map and predominant period map by adopting Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). All these parameters have been given here in the order starting with maximum weight of 6 for PGA to lower weight of 1 for predominant frequency. Normalized weights of each parameter have been estimated. Depending upon the variation of each hazard parameter values, three to five ranks are assigned and the normalized ranks are calculated. Final hazard index values have been estimated by multiplying normalized ranks of each parameter with the normalized weights. Microzonation map has been generated by mapping hazard index values. Three maps were generated based on DSHA, PSHA for 2% and 10 % probability of exceedence in 50 years. Hazard index maps from DSHA and PSHA for 2 % probability show similar pattern. Higher hazard index were obtained in northern and western parts of Lucknow and lower values in others. The new microzonation maps can help in dividing the Lucknow into three parts as high area i.e. North western part, moderate hazard area i.e. central part and low hazard area which covers southern and eastern parts of Lucknow. This microzonation is different from the current seismic code where all area is lumped in one zone without detailed assessment of different earthquake hazard parameters. Finally this study brings out first region specific GMPE considering recorded and synthetic ground monitions for wide range of magnitudes and distances. Proposed GMPE can also be used in other part of the Himalayan region as it matches well with the highly ranked GMPEs. Detailed rock level PGA map has been generated for Lucknow considering DSHA and PSHA. A detailed geotechnical and geophysical experiments are carried out in Lucknow. These results are used to develop correction between SWV and N-SPT values for soil deposit in IGB and site classification maps for the study area. Amplification and liquefaction potential of Lucknow are estimated by considering multiple ground motions data to account different earthquake ground motion amplitude, duration and frequency, which is unique in the seismic microzonation study.