The climate adaptation of our cities and the optimization of our technical systems with regards to weather sets high demands on the availability and the processing of weather data. The possibility to forecast disturbances of influent flow rate to wastewater treatment plants allow control systems counteract these disturbances before they have a harmful effect on the treatment processes. These forecasts can be made by different models A neural network models complex patterns between different data sets through a multi-layered structure containing a large amount of transformation functions. The aim of this project was to examine how the complex neural network performed compared with a simpler linear regression model when forecasting wastewater flow using high resolution X-band rain radar data. The study also investigated to what extent X-band rain radar data contributes to the performance of the model. The performance was evaluated at rain flow periods only. Wastewater flow data were provided by Avedøre wastewater treatment plant in Copenhagen operated by BIOFOS. The X-band rain radar data was provided by HOFOR. The neural network was developed by Informetics on the TensorFlow platform. This project concluded that the neural network and the linear regression model performed equally well at predicting when a rain flow period began. The neural network was more accurate at predicting the flow rate while the linear regression was better at approximating the accumulated flow over an entire rain flow period. Using additional rain data up to 30 km within the radar station location in comparison with using data only from within the catchment indicated a 20 to 30-minutes improvement of possible lead time. A conceivable lead time when forecasting the sewer flow to Avedøre wastewater treatment plant was estimated to be around 4 hours. / Det föreligger höga krav på tillgänglighet och bearbetning av väderdata för att kunna optimera tekniska system i förhållande till väder och klimat. Att kunna förutsäga ändrat inkommande flöde till avloppsreningsverk möjliggör för kontrollsystem att kunna motverka negativa konsekvenser på reningsprocesserna på grund av det ändrade flödet. X-band radardata kan användas för att prognoser av flöden med hjälp av olika modeller.Ett neuralt nätverk, reproducerar komplexa mönster mellan olika dataset genom en struktur med flera lager och en mängd överföringsfunktioner.  Målsättningen med det här projektet var att utvärdera hur ett komplext neuralt nätverk presterar jämfört med en enklare regressionsmodell i att förutsäga avloppsflöde med hjälp av högupplöst X-band radardata. I projektet undersöktes också hur tillgång av olika radardata kunde bidra till modellens prestanda. Modellerna utvärderades endast under regnflödesperioder. Data över avloppsflödet som användes i projektet kom från Avedøre avloppsreningsverk i Köpenhamn. Reningsverket drivs av BIOFOS. Radardata kom från HOFOR. Det neurala nätverket som användes har utvecklats av Informetics på plattformen Tensorflow. Slutsatser som kunde dras i projektet var att det neurala nätverket och den linjär regressionsmodellen var lika bra på att förutsäga när en regnflödesperiod startade. Det neurala nätverket kunde förutsäga det momentana flödet bättre än regressionsmodellen, medan det omvända gällde för att uppskatta den totala flödesvolymen under en hel regnflödesperiod. Genom att använda ytterligare regndata, upp till 30 kilometer från radarstationen, jämfört med att endast använda data från avrinningsområdet kunde en 20–30 minuters förbättring av den möjliga prognostiden påvisas. En tänkbar prognostiden för att förutsäga avloppsflödet till Avedøre avloppsreningsverk visades ligga omkring 4 timmar.

Streamflow forecasting is a fundamental component of various water resources management systems, ranging from flood control and mitigation to long-term planning of irrigation and hydropower systems. In the context of floods, a probabilistic forecasting system is required for proper and effective decision-making. Therefore, the primary goal of this research is the development of an advanced ensemble-based streamflow forecasting framework to better quantify the predictive uncertainty and generate enhanced probabilistic forecasts. This research started by comprehensively evaluating the performances of various lumped conceptual models in data-poor watersheds and comparing various Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) modifications for probabilistic streamflow simulation. Then, using the concept of BMA, two novel probabilistic post-processing approaches were developed to enhance streamflow forecasting performance. The combination of the entropy theory and the BMA method leads to an entropy-based Bayesian Model Averaging (En-BMA) approach for enhanced probabilistic streamflow and precipitation forecasting. Also, the integration of the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor (HUP) and the BMA methods is proposed for probabilistic post-processing of multi-model streamflow forecasts. Results indicated that the MACHBV and GR4J models are highly competent in simulating hydrological processes within data-scarce watersheds, however, the presence of the lower skill hydrologic models is still beneficial for ensemble-based streamflow forecasting. The comprehensive verification of the BMA approach in terms of streamflow predictions has identified the merits of implementing some of the previously recommended modifications and showed the importance of possessing a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive ensemble. By targeting the remaining limitation of the BMA approach, the proposed En-BMA method can improve probabilistic streamflow forecasting, especially under high flow conditions. Also, the proposed HUP-BMA approach has taken advantage of both HUP and BMA methods to better quantify the hydrologic uncertainty. Moreover, the applicability of the modified En-BMA as a more robust post-processing approach for precipitation forecasting, compared to BMA, has been demonstrated. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) / Possessing a reliable streamflow forecasting framework is of special importance in various fields of operational water resources management, non-structural flood mitigation in particular. Accurate and reliable streamflow forecasts lead to the best possible in-advanced flood control decisions which can significantly reduce its consequent loss of lives and properties. The main objective of this research is to develop an enhanced ensemble-based probabilistic streamflow forecasting approach through proper quantification of predictive uncertainty using an ensemble of streamflow forecasts. The key contributions are: (1) implementing multiple diverse forecasts with full coverage of future possibilities in the Bayesian ensemble-based forecasting method to produce more accurate and reliable forecasts; and (2) developing an ensemble-based Bayesian post-processing approach to enhance the hydrologic uncertainty quantification by taking the advantages of multiple forecasts and initial flow observation. The findings of this study are expected to benefit streamflow forecasting, flood control and mitigation, and water resources management and planning.

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / A stochastic model is presented for the prediction of sediment yield in a semi-arid watershed based on rainfall data and watershed characteristics. Random variables which lead to uncertainty in the model are rainfall amount, storm duration, runoff, and peak flow. Soil conservation service formulas are used to compute the runoff and peak flow components of the universal soil loss equation, and a transformation of random variables is used to obtain the distribution function of sediment yield from the joint distribution of rainfall amount and storm duration. Applications of the model are in the planning of reservoirs and dams where the effective lifetime of the facility may be evaluated in terms of storage capacity as well as the effects of land management of the watershed. In order to calibrate the model and to evaluate the uncertainties involved, experimental data from the Atterbury watershed near Tucson, Arizona were used.

From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / Water information systems may have different demands, such as responding to queries about rainfall-runoff relationships, water level data, water quality data and water use. Data required for retrieval may need display, such as a hydrograph. Information systems are reviewed and results of specific water information agencies are reported. Agencies in Arizona are listed with their specific water information need. Development of a water activity file and water information system is outlined for Arizona as a pilot project. Linkage of units within the data system is shown, as is the information system's questionnaire to project leaders. Information currently in the system includes water quality from the state department of health for 450 wells in the Tucson basin, and water level, storage, storage coefficient and transmissivity supplied by the Arizona water commission for the Tucson basin and Avra Valley. Quality of data submitted to the system should be reflected in retrieval for better understanding of the data. This consideration is planned for the coming fiscal year.

From the Proceedings of the 1972 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 5-6, 1972, Prescott, Arizona / Almost all runoff from semiarid rangeland watersheds in southern Arizona results from intense highly variable thunderstorm rainfall. Abstractions, or transmission losses, are important in diminishing streamflow, supporting riparian vegetation and providing natural groundwater recharge. A flood routing procedure is developed using data from the walnut gulch experimental watershed, where flood movement and transmission losses are represented by a system using storage in the channel reach as a state variable which determines loss rates. Abstractions are computed as a cascade of general components in linear form. Wide variation in the parameters of this linear model with increasing inflow indicates that a linear relation between losses and storage is probably incorrect for ephemeral channels.

From the Proceedings of the 1973 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - May 4-5, 1973, Tucson, Arizona / Five livestock watering ponds on the walnut gulch experimental watershed were instrumented to evaluate the use of these ponds as a method for comparing rainfall amounts with runoff sediment volumes. Pond drainage area, vegetative cover, soil type, percent slope, and years of record were tested. Instrumentation consisted of water level recorders, and a topographic survey of each stock pond to ascertain its storage capacity. The results to date have been insufficient to reach definite conclusions due to instrumentation and surveying problems, and because of the natural variability of thunderstorm rainfall. Since most of these problems have now been corrected, future data should yield valuable hydrologic data for semiarid rangelands by means of these instrumented stock ponds.

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / Reported are laboratory evaluations to screen water-repellent materials and treatments before testing them in the field. Water repellency tests were conducted on paraffin wax, a wax emulsion and silicon, lard, and a liquid dust suppressant. Six water repellency tests showed that the high rates of paraffin wax and all rates of the dust suppressant produced highly water-repellent soil surfaces. The six water repellency tests were: (1) the aqueous-alcohol drop test for determination of the 90 degree surface tension for a porous solid, (2) the water drop penetration time test, (3) the relative height of a large sessile water drop resting on the smoothed, treated soil surface, (4) and (5) the presence and persistence of air bubbles trapped between the soil-water interface, and test (6) was made to note whether the large sessile water drop from test (3) would infiltrate the soil or evaporate. Tests (3), (4), and (5) proved the most useful of the six methods for measuring water repellency. Soil type had no significant influence on degree of water repellency as measured in the laboratory by these six tests.

From the Proceedings of the 1974 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 19-20, 1974, Flagstaff, Arizona / Semiarid environments exhibit certain hydrologic characteristics which must be taken into consideration for the effective modeling of the behavior of catchments in these areas. Convective storms, which cause most of the runoff, occur in high intensity and short duration during the summer months and are highly localized so that only a small portion of the catchment actually contributes flow to the storm hydrograph. Also, streams in semiarid catchments are ephemeral with flow occurring only about 1 percent of the time. This study attempts to develop a simple synthetic catchment model that reflects these features of the semiarid environment and for which (1) the simplifying assumptions do not preclude the inclusion of the important components of the runoff process, and (2) parameters of the equations representing the component processes have physical interpretation and are obtainable from basin characteristics so that the model may be applicable to ungaged sites. A reductionist approach is then applied in which the entire catchment is subdivided into a finite number of meshes and the various components of the runoff phenomenon are delineated within each mesh as independent functions of the catchment. Simplified forms of the hydrodynamic equations of flow are used to route flow generated from each mesh to obtain a complete hydrograph at the outlet point.

From the Proceedings of the 1977 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 15-16, 1977, Las Vegas, Nevada / Increased nutritional and economic demands for agricultural products have dictated the need for greater and more efficient use of western grass forage. Vegetation manipulation is the quickest and most economical means of increasing forage. However , the hydrologic effects must be taken into consideration before embarking on a large scale vegetation manipulated program. This study discusses the hydrologic and erosion changes measured from a 110-acre semiarid watershed which was converted from brush to grass by root plowing and seeding. Significant changes were observed in rainfall-runoff relationships as average summer runoff was considerably in excess of predictions. Sediment yield also varied, and both of these results were tied to the change in vegetative cover and post conversion rainfall conditions.

From the Proceedings of the 1978 Meetings of the Arizona Section - American Water Resources Assn. and the Hydrology Section - Arizona Academy of Science - April 14-15, 1978, Flagstaff, Arizona / With the objective of determining if sufficient water would be salvaged by a typical desert, urban-household from normally wasted sources associated with the lot and household to adequately irrigate a garden and orchard, a 2000 sq ft house on a typical one fifth acre lot in three cities having climates similar to Phoenix, Tucson, or Prescott, Arizona was hypothesized and the amount of water available for yard watering calculated, provided that (1) only rainfall was available, (2) rainfall-runoff from covered areas associated with or adjacent to the lot was salvaged (roof, street, alley etc.), (3) gray-water from the household was utilized, (4) a portion of the lot was waterproofed to concentrate the runoff on the untreated portion, and (5) various combinations of the above were utilized to increase the amount of available water. It is demonstrated that these sources could be used singly or in combination to obtain the required amount of water with the actual amount available depending upon the precipitation, runoff and runon areas, runoff efficiency of the contributing area, and the number of people in the household. A number of horticultural plants are suggested that should best fit such an irregular irrigation scheme.