Electricity is the most preferred source of energy, because of its quality and convenience of usage. It is probably one of the most vital infrastructural inputs for economic development of a country. Indeed it is the fulcrum which can leverage the future pace of growth and development. These reasons have made the electric power industry one of the fastest growing sectors in most developing countries and particularly in India. Therefore it is not surprising to observe the economic growth of a country being related to the increase in electricity consumption. In India, the growth rate of demand for power is generally higher than that of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). However, to achieve this kind of growth in electricity supply, the capital investments required are very huge. Even though the electricity sector generally gels a major share in the budgetary allocations in India, this is inadequate to add the required quantum of new generation capacity to keep pace with the increase in demand for electricity. Additional constraints like capital scarcity in the public sector, lack of enthusiasm among the private and foreign investors, and strong opposition from the environmentalists have further contributed to this slow pace of new generating capacity addition. This has resulted in severely constrained systems in India. The main focus of the present research work is on the development of an integrated approach for electricity planning using a mathematical modeling framework in (he context of resource constrained systems. There are very few attempts in the literature to integrate short, medium and long term issues in electricity planning. This is understandable from the point of view of unconstrained electricity systems where this type of integration is unnecessary since such systems have a luxury of surplus capacity to meet the current demand and capacity additions are required only for meeting predicted future increase in demand. However, in the case of constrained electricity systems, which are characterized by shortages, this kind of integration is very essential. These systems have to manage with inadequate capacity in the present, plan capacity additions to bridge the existing gap and to meet future increase in demand, and always explore the possibility of adding capacity with short gestation period. The integrated approach is expected to achieve effective supply-demand matching on a continuous basis encompassing both the short term and long term horizons. To achieve this, we have considered three alternatives- existing supply, new supply and non-supply (rationing) of electricity. The electricity system of the state of Karnataka, which is severely constrained by both limited capital and energy resources, has been selected for this purpose. As a first step, the supply and demand situation has been studied in the context of resource constraints. In terms of supply, both existing and future additions are studied in detail with respect to the potential created, generation types, import potential, technical constraints, energy and power shortages, planned and proposed capacity additions by both public and private sectors, etc. The demand patterns have been studied by introducing a new concept of "Representative Load Curves (RLCs)". These RLCs are used to model the temporal and structural variations in demand for electricity. Also, appropriate non-supply options (rationing measures) for effective management of shortages are identified. Incorporating this information, an integrated mathematical model, which is expected to generate a target plan for a detailed generation scheduling exercises and a requirement plan for a regular generation expansion planning, has been developed. The other important alternative "Demand-Side-Management (DSM)", which could be considered as an effective option to achieve efficient supply-demand matching has not been included in the present research work. The major reason for not including the DSM alternatives is due to the difficulty in integrating these in the modelling approach adopted here. In the present approach we have used typical daily load curves (RLCs) to represent the demand for electricity. These are aggregate load curves and do not contain any sector-wise or end-use-wisc details. On the other hand, DSM alternatives are end-use focused. To incorporate DSM alternatives, we should have information on end-usc-wisc power demand (kW or MW), savings potential, time-of-use, etc. For this purpose it may be required to have end-use-wisc daily load curves. This information is not available and a separate detailed survey may be required to generate these load curves. This, we felt, is out of the scope of this present research work and a separate study may be required to do this. Therefore, we restricted our focus to supply planning alone. A detailed literature review is conducted to understand different types of modeling approaches to electricity planning. For the present study, however, the review of literature has been restricted to the methods of generation expansion planning and scheduling. In doing so, we attempted to bring out the differences in various approaches in terms of solution methods adopted, alternatives included and modifications suggested. Also, we briefly reviewed the literature on models for power and energy rationing, because management of shortages is an important aspect of the present study. Subsequently, a separate section is devoted to present an overview of the non-supply of electricity and its economic impacts on the consumers. We found that the low reliability of the electrical system is an indicator of the existence of severe shortages of power and energy, which cause non-supply of electricity to the consumers. The overview also presented a discussion on reasons for non-supply of electricity, and the types of non-supply options the utilities adopt to over come these shortages. We also attempted to explain what we mean by non-supply of electricity, what are its cost implications, and the methods available in the literature to estimate these costs. The first objective of the research pertains to the development of a new approach to model the varying demand for electricity. Using the concept of Representative Load Curves (RLCs) we model the hourly demand for a period of four years, 1993-94, 1994-95, 1995-96 and 1996-97, to understand the demand patterns of both unconstrained and constrained years. Multiple discriminant analysis has been used to cluster the 365 load curves into nine RLCs for each of the four years. The results show that these RLCs adequately model the variations in demand and bring out the distinctions in the demand patterns existed during the unconstrained and constrained years. The demand analysis using RLCs helped to study the differences in demand patterns with and without constraints, impacts of constraints on preferred pattern of electricity consumption, success of non-supply options in both reducing the demand levels and greatly disturbing the electricity usage patterns. Multifactor ANOVA analyses are performed to quantify the statistical significance of the ability of the logically obtained factors in explaining the overall variations in demand. The results of the ANOVA analysis clearly showed that the considered factors accounted for maximum variations in demand at very high significance levels. It also brought out the significant influence of rationing measures in explaining the variations in demand during the constrained years. Concerning the second objective, we explained in detail, the development of an integrated mixed integer-programming model, which we felt is appropriate for planning in the case of resource constrained electricity systems. Two types of integrations are attempted (i) existing supply, non-supply and new supply options for dynamically matching supply and demand, (ii) operational and strategic planning in terms of providing target plans for the former and requirement plans for the latter. Broadly, the approach addresses the effective management of existing capacity, optimal rationing plan to effectively manage shortages and rationally decide on the new capacity additions both to bridge the existing gap between supply and demand, and to meet the future increases in demand. There is also an attempt to arrive at an optimal mix of public and private capacity additions for a given situation. Finally, it has been attempted to verify the possibility of integration of captive generation capacity with the grid. Further, we discussed in detail about the data required for the model implementation. The model is validated through the development of a number of scenarios for the state of Karnataka. The base case scenario analyses are carried out for both the unconstrained and constrained years to compare the optimal allocations with actual allocations that were observed, and to find out how sensitive are the results for any change in the values of various parameters. For the constrained years, a few more scenarios are used to compare the optimal practice of managing shortages with to what has been actually followed by the utility. The optimal allocations of the predicted demand to various existing supply and non-supply options clearly showed that the actual practice, reflected by the actual RLCs, are highly ad hoc and sub-optimal. The unit cost comparisons among different scenarios show that the least cost choice of options by the utility does not necessarily lead to good choices from the consumers’ perspective. Further, a number of future scenarios are developed to verify the ability of the model to achieve the overall objective of supply-demand matching both in the short and long term. For this purpose both the short horizon annual scenarios (1997-98 to 2000-01) and long horizon terminal year scenarios (2005-06 and 2010-11) are developed assuming capacity additions from only public sector. Overall, the results indicated that with marginal contributions from non-supply options and if the public sector generates enough resources to add the required capacity, optimal matching of supply and demand could be achieved. The scenario analyses also showed that it is more economical to have some level of planned rationing compared to having a more reliable system. The quantum of new capacity additions required and the level of investments associated with it clearly indicated the urgent need of private sector participation in capacity additions. Finally, we made an attempt to verify the applicability of the integrated model to analyse the implications of private sector participation in capacity additions. First, a number of scenarios are developed to study the optimal allocations of predicted hourly demand to private capacity under different situations. Secondly, the impacts of privatisation on the public utility and consumers are analysed. Both short term and long term scenarios are developed for this purpose. The results showed the advantage of marginal non-supply of electricity both in terms of achieving overall effective supply-demand matching and economic benefits that could be generated through cost savings. The results also showed the negative impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector in terms of the opportunity costs of reduced utilization of both the existing and new public capacity. The estimates of unit cost of supply and effective cost of supply facilitated the relative comparison among various scenarios as well as finding out the merits and demerits of guarantees to private sector and non-supply of electricity. The unit cost estimates are also found to be useful in studying the relative increase in electricity prices for consumers on account of privatization, guarantees and reliable supply of electricity. Using the results of scenario analyses, likely generation expansion plans till the year 2010-11 are generated. The analyses have been useful in providing insights into fixing the availability and plant load factors for the private sector capacity. Based on the analysis, the recommended range for plant utilization factor is 72.88 - 80.57%. The estimated generation losses and the associated economic impacts of backing down of existing and new public capacity on account of guarantees offered to private sector are found to be significantly high. The analyses also showed that the backing down might take place mainly during nights and low demand periods of monsoon and winter seasons. Other impacts of privatization that studied are in terms of increased number of alternatives for the utility to buy electricity for distribution and the associated increase in its cost of purchase. Regarding the consumers, the major impact could be in terms of significant increase in expected tariffs. The major contributions of this thesis are summarized as follows: i. An integrated approach to electricity planning that is reported here, is unique in the sense that it considers options available under various alternatives, namely, existing supply, non-supply and new supply. This approach is most suited for severely constrained systems having to manage with both energy and capital resource shortages. ii. The integration of operational and strategic planning with coherent target plans for the former and requirement plans for the latter bridges the prevailing gap in electricity planning approaches. iii. The concept of Representative Load Curves (RLCs), which is introduced here, captures the hourly, daily and seasonal variations in demand. Together, all the RLCs developed for a given year are expected to model the hourly demand patterns of that year. These RLCs are useful for planning in resource constrained electricity systems and in situations where it is required to know the time variations in demand (e.g. supply-demand matching, seasonal scheduling of hydro plants and maintenance scheduling). RLCs are also useful in identifying the factors influencing variations in demand. This approach will overcome the limitations of current method of representation in the form of static and aggregate annual load duration curves. iv. A new term, "non-supply of electricity" has been introduced in this thesis. A brief overview of non-supply presented here includes reasons for non-supply, type of non-supply, methods to estimate cost of non-supply and factors influencing these estimates. v. The integrated mixed integer programming model developed in the study has been demonstrated as a planning tool for- • Optimal hourly and seasonal scheduling of various existing supply, non-supply and new supply options • Estimation of supply shortages on a representative hourly basis using the information on resource constraints • Effectively planning non-supply of electricity through appropriate power/energy rationing methods • Estimation of the need for the new capacity additions both to bridge the existing gap and to take care of increase in future demand levels • Optimal filling of gaps between demand and supply on a representative hourly basis through new supply of electricity • Optimally arriving at the judicious mix of public and private capacity additions • Studying the impacts of private capacity on the existing and new public sector capacity, and on the consumers • Optimally verifying the feasibility of integrating the captive generation with the total system vi. The demand analysis using RLCs helped to bring out the differences in demand patterns with and without constraints, impacts of constraints on preferred pattern of electricity consumption, success of non-supply options in both reducing the demand levels and greatly disturbing the electricity usage patterns. Multifactor ANOVA analyses results showed that the logically obtained factors accounted for maximum variations in demand at very high significance levels. vii. A comparison of optimal (represented by optimal predicted RLCs) and actual (reflected by actual RLCs) practices facilitated by the model showed that the actual practice during constrained years is highly ad hoc and sub-optimal. viii. The results of the scenario analyses showed that it is more economical to have some amount of planned rationing compared to having a more reliable system, which does not allow non-supply of electricity. ix. The scenarios, which analysed the impacts of high guarantees offered to the private sector, showed the negative impacts of these in terms of reduced utilization of both the existing and new public capacity. x. Generation expansion plans till the year 2010-11 are developed using the results of various kinds of scenario analyses. Two groups of year-wise generation expansion plans are generated, one with only public sector capacity additions and the other with private sector participation. xi. The impacts of privatization of capacity additions are studied from the point of view of the utility and consumers in terms of expected increase in cost of purchase of electricity and tariffs. xii. The analyses are also made for developing some insights into fixing the availability and plant load factors for the private capacity. Based on the analysis, the recommended range for plant utilization factor is 72.88 - 80.57%. We believe that the integrated approach presented and the results obtained in this thesis would help utilities (both suppliers and distributors of electricity) and governments in making rational choices in the context of resource constrained systems. The results reported here may also be used towards rationalization of Government policies vis-a-vis tariff structures in the supply of electricity, planning new generation capacity additions and effective rationing of electricity. It is also hoped that the fresh approach adopted in this thesis would attract further investigations in future research on resource constrained systems.

It is difficult for policymakers to predict the behavior of people in response to a water rationing policy. The public may not necessarily behave as expected or in accordance with market rules or policy mandates. In this research, I will ask whether people were responsive to a summer 2011 City of Saskatoon legal restrictions to reduce their outdoor water consumption due to reduced capacity at the water treatment plant resulting from excessive solids in the river water. I will try to explore the policy response - which can be expressed as a reduction of outdoor water consumption in 2011 in response to the water mandate - while holding constant other factors, including environmental variables (temperature and rainfall), socio-economic factors (income and education level), lot size, and an annual downward trend in water consumption that appeared in many North American cities during the past two decades. Monthly water consumption data for the period from 2004 to 2012 for the City of Saskatoon were analyzed to detect if there is a policy response from the water mandate during June and July 2011. Regression analysis with water consumption as the dependent variable and lot size, temperature, rainfall, education index, income, consumption trend, and policy as independent variables was conducted to test whether there is a policy response in the Saskatoon water records, holding other factors relevant to water consumption constant. Results showed there was a statistically significant reduction in Saskatoon water consumption during June and July 2011 as a result of the water rationing mandate, with considerable variations through different neighborhoods. In addition, there is a positive relationship between water consumption and lot size and a reduction in water consumption over the research period from 2004 to 2012. The policy response varied widely across neighborhoods, and there was relationship between policy and annual income per capita, and household size; households with more income per capita are less responsive to the policy while bigger household sizes showed more policy responsiveness. Key words: City of Saskatoon, water rationing, water policy, water mandate, outdoor water use.

[pt] Esta dissertação investiga os efeitos do racionamento de energia elétrica ocorrido no período entre junho de 2001 a fevereiro de 2002, nas previsões de energia das principais concessionárias brasileiras. Para tal, estudamos o desempenho de modelos lineares e não-lineares. Dentre os modelos lineares, analisamos os modelos ARIMA (p,d,q) de Box & Jenkins e os modelos de amortecimento exponencial de Holt & Winters. Dentre os modelos não-lineares, são abordadas técnicas de inteligência artificial tais como Redes Neurais e Lógica Fuzzy. Visto que o racionamento levou a previsões ineficientes, propomos alternativas para reduzir seu impacto. Por último, investigamos os impactos causados pela crise energética nas previsões doze passos à frente de carga elétrica provenientes de vinte e oito concessionárias. A base de dados é composta pelos valores observados e as previsões fornecidas pelo PREVCAR, um dos sistemas de previsão da cadeia oficial de programas do setor elétrico brasileiro. Por meio de um procedimento de Análise de Agrupamento utilizando Redes Neurais Artificiais do tipo SOM (Self Organizing Map) de Kohonen são estabelecidos os grupos de concessionárias que possuem os mesmos comportamentos diante do racionamento. Como resultado final, foram estimados fatores de redução das previsões causados pelo racionamento, que servem como base de cálculo para reduções nas previsões futuras em períodos de crise de abastecimento. / [en] This dissertation aims at an exploratory study of impacts caused by the 2001 energy crisis on the current forecasts produced on a monthly basis for main distributing utilities. For that we show an accuracy study of the performance of the linear and non-linear models. It has been used, within the linear models class, the modeling approach of Box-Jenkins and exponential smoothing of Holt- Winters. Within the non-linear ones, it was chosen those based on artificial intelligence techniques, such as Fuzzy Logic and Artificial Neural Network. Due to the lack of accuracy of the models to cope with the discontinuities provoked by the crisis on the forecasts, some alternative tools to reduce the impact on the forecast errors are proposed. Finally, the impacts caused by the crisis on multiple steps ahead forecasts have also been investigated. It was taken the monthly forecasts produced by PREVCAR (one of official Brazilian load forecasting system), as well as the observed values covering the same period, to create the crisis response indices series for each one of the twenty and eight utilities included in the analysis. It was also used the well-known neural network based algorithm SOM (Self Organizing Maps) to classify the utilities into homogeneous groups, according to their response to the energy crisis. As a final result, for each group, it was estimated the reduction factors that can be used as a prior information in future energy supply crisis.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T14:55:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FabioAL_DISSERT.pdf: 3109230 bytes, checksum: c3a4e73bfea10d6796f79168cb83b21d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-08-31 / Every day, water scarcity becomes a more serious problem and, directly affects global society. Studies are directed in order to raise awareness of the rational use of this natural asset that is essential to our survival. Only 0.007% of the water available in the world have easy access and can be consumed by humans, it can be found in rivers, lakes, etc... To better take advantage of the water used in homes and small businesses, reuse projects are often implemented, resulting in savings for customers of water utilities. The reuse projects involve several areas of engineering, like Environmental, Chemical, Electrical and Computer Engineering. The last two are responsible for the control of the process, which aims to make gray water (soapy water), and clear blue water (rain water), ideal for consumption, or for use in watering gardens, flushing, among others applications. Water has several features that should be taken into consideration when it comes to working its reuse. Some of the features are, turbidity, temperature, electrical conductivity and, pH. In this document there is a proposal to control the pH (potential Hydrogen) through a microcontroller, using the fuzzy logic as strategy of control. The controller was developed in the fuzzy toolbox of Matlab? / A cada dia a escassez de ?gua se torna um problema mais grave e que atinge diretamente a sociedade mundial. Estudos s?o dirigidos no intuito de conscientizar a popula??o do uso racional desse bem natural que ? imprescind?vel ? sobreviv?ncia. Somente 0,007% das ?guas dispon?veis no globo apresentam acesso f?cil e podem ser consumidas por seres humanos, sendo encontradas em rios, lagos, etc. Para melhor proveito das ?guas utilizadas em resid?ncias e pequenos estabelecimentos, projetos de reuso s?o muitas vezes implementados, implicando, em economia para os clientes das concession?rias de ?gua. Os projetos de reuso envolvem as mais diversas ?reas da engenharia, podendo ser citadas a Engenharia Ambiental, Engenharia Qu?mica e tamb?m a Engenharia El?trica e de Computa??o, essas ?ltimas, respons?veis pelo controle dos processos, que tem por objetivo tornar a ?gua cinza, ou seja, ?guas com sab?o e ?guas azuis, mais conhecidas como ?guas de chuva, ideais para o consumo, ou apenas para utiliza??o em regas de jardins, descargas sanit?rias, entre outros. A ?gua possui v?rias caracter?sticas que devem ser levadas em considera??o, em se tratando do seu reuso. Algumas delas s?o, turbidez, temperatura, condutividade el?trica, pH. Nesse documento ? feita uma proposta de controle de pH (potencial hidrogeni?nico), atrav?s de microcontrolador, utilizando-se como estrat?gia de controle a l?gica fuzzy. O controlador foi desenvolvido no toolbox fuzzy do software Matlab?

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os modelos da firma bancária e crédito a partir de uma visão keynesiana. Inicialmente são apresentadas as proposições teóricas de Keynes e as derivações dessa a partir dos velhos e novos keynesianos. Na 2 parte os modelos representativos da firma bancária dessas escolas são descritos através de Tobin e Stiglitz, sendo neste último caso introduzido o conceito de assimetria de informação. No 3 capítulo é desenvolvida a abordagem pós-keynesiana de endogeneidade da oferta de moeda, sendo apresentados os modelos horizontalista de Moore, bem como as críticas da visão estruturalista, além do modelo de estratégia bancária de Alves, Dymski e Paula, desenvolvido a partir da hipótese de fragilidade financeira de Minsky. No capítulo 4 efetua-se uma discussão, feita por autores pós-keynesianos, sobre a possibilidade de compatibilizar em alguma medida o modelo de Tobin e o modelo de racionamento de crédito com a concepção pós-keynesiana de banco e crédito. / The present work aims at analyzing the models of the banking firm and credit from a Keynesian approach. Initially the theoretical proposals of Keynes and the Old and New Keynesian view of banking and credit are presented. In chapter 2 the representative models of the banking firm of these schools are described through Tobin and Stiglitzs model. In chapter 3 is developed the Post-Keynesian approach of money endogeneity - Moores banking firm model and the criticism made by the Post-Keynesian structuralist view. We also consider other Post Keynesian banking firm model, such as Dymskis model and Alves, Dymski and Paula banking strategy model. In chapter 4 we discuss if compatible the Post Keynesian approach is compatible or not with the conventional Keynesian theory of banking. In chapter 4 we consider the hypothesis of financial fragility of Minsky.

Introdução: A sepse é uma condição clínica de inflamação disseminada e descontrolada associada a um foco infeccioso. É uma condição de difícil estudo pela variedade de interações existentes entre as diversas instâncias do organismo e um conceito uniforme ainda está sendo debatido na literatura, o que dificulta a pesquisa e o estabelecimento de legislação que garanta fomento específico. Somado a isto, a exemplo de outras condições tempo-dependentes como infarto agudo do miocárdio, trauma e acidente vascular cerebral, a organização do fluxo do paciente através do sistema de saúde, garantindo leitos de terapia intensiva é fundamental. A U.E.- HCFMRP-USP é referência terciária para emergências para uma população de aproximadamente 4,5 milhões de habitantes e vem introduzindo mecanismos de gestão de fluxo como a priorização de leitos de terapia intensiva e desospitalização. Estas duas estratégias são recentes no Sistema Único de Saúde (SUS) e sua avaliação é fundamental para identificar o perfil de pacientes com Sepse e a importância da organização do sistema no prognóstico desta condição. Objetivos: 1) Avaliar a associação da priorização de Vagas em Terapia Intensiva com a mortalidade, morbidade e tempo de permanência hospitalar dos pacientes; 2) Avaliar o perfil epidemiológico dos pacientes com Sepse admitidos na U.E.-HCFMRP-USP; 3) Avaliar a estratégia de priorização de vagas no acesso de pacientes em sepse grave ou choque séptico aos leitos de terapia intensiva; 4) Avaliar a estratégia de transferência para leitos de retaguarda na oferta de leitos de terapia intensiva. 5) Avaliar a estratégia de priorização de vagas no retardo ao acesso de pacientes em sepse grave ou choque séptico aos leitos de terapia intensiva; 6) Avaliar a estratégia de priorização de vagas na mortalidade de pacientes em sepse grave ou choque séptico aos leitos de terapia intensiva; 7) Avaliar o índice prognóstico \"Quick\" SOFA nos pacientes com sepse grave ou choque séptico admitidos na U.E.-HCFMRP-USP. Metodologia: Trata-se de uma coorte retrospectiva realizada a partir de dados administrativos obtidos do sistema eletrônico de gerenciamento de pacientes da UEHCFMRP- USP de 01 janeiro de 2010 a 31 de dezembro de 20016. Foram construídas duas bases de dados. A primeira embasada em internação como identificador, na qual foram derivadas variáveis que representam priorização, dados demográficos, Comorbidade (Índice de Comorbidade de Charlson), a gravidade (\"Quick SOFA\"), linha de cuidado, presença de sepse e variáveis de desfecho. A segunda embasada em cada dia do período de estudo composta por variáveis sobre o número de leitos de CTI disponíveis, número de admissões, número de altas, número de transferências para hospital geral e para hospital de retaguarda. As variáveis quantitativas foram expressas como média e desvio-padrão ou mediana e mínimo e máximo de acordo com o teste de normalidade e as variáveis categóricas como percentagem. Para análise univariada foram utilizados testes t de Student, Análise de Variância ou equivalentes não-paramétricos, qui-quadrado ou teste exato de Fisher e \"Receiver Operating\'\' Curves\". Para a análise multivariada foram utilizadas a regressão logística multivariada com desfecho binário ou categórico conforme apropriado e a regressão multivariada de Poisson. A significância estatística foi expressa por p<0,05 ou a exclusão da unidade do intervalo de confiança. Resultados: 1) O processo de priorização de leitos de terapia intensiva se mostrou apropriado. Os pacientes que receberam prioridade maior para acesso ao CTI (prioridade 1- 5826;62,5%) eram mais jovens (55;12-100 - p<0,01), apresentavam menos comorbidades ( Charlson 0, 3583:61,5% - p<0,01) e menor gravidade (Quick\" SOFA\" 0,2170;37,2% - p<0,01; SOFA <10% - 1782;0,5% - p<0,01). Estes pacientes foram admitidos em maior proporção (2097;35,9% - p<0,01) e tiveram acesso mais rápido ao CTI (1081;52,5% - p<0,01), apresentando menor mortalidade (1853;31,8% - p<0,01). Ao se ajustar os possíveis fatores de confusão para estabelecer a razão de chances de receber prioridade 1 pelo intensivista, maior valor da classe de Charlson (Comorbidade) - OR 0,53; 0,49-0,57, do \"Quick SOFA\" (Gravidade) - OR 0,45; 0,43- 0,48 e a presença da condição Sepse - OR 0,20-0,17;0,23 estiveram associados independentemente à menor chance de receber esta classificação. 2) Os pacientes sépticos identificados neste estudo tinham maior idade (61;12-97 - p<0,01), maior prevalência do gênero masculino (646;56,2% - p<0,01) , menor amparo social (714;61,8% - p=0,048), maior índice de Comorbidade (Charlson 2 - 222;19,3% - p<0,01) e de Gravidade (SOFA >90% - 152;13,2% - p<0,01), apresentaram maior mortalidade intrahospitalar (838;73% - p<0,01), maior retardo para admissão no CTI e maior duração da internação hospitalar (7,3;0-304 - p<0,01). Quando comparados com outras linhas de cuidado bem estabelecidas, observou-se que a Sepse pode ser equiparada com o Trauma em termos de incidência (sepse 1148;22,5% - p<0,01; trauma 1138;22,3% - p<0,01), sendo inferior apenas às Síndromes Coronarianas Agudas (SCA)(1972;38,7% - p<0,01). Na análise multivariada, a Sepse está associada à menor chance de receber prioridade 1(0,2 ; IC 95% - 0,17;0,23) independente de outros fatores de confusão, persistiu como fator independente para mortalidade intra-hospitalar total (2,7; IC 95% - 2,32;3,17) e para a mortalidade de pacientes admitidos no CTI (2,38; IC 95% - 1,82;3,11). 3) A priorização de vagas facilitou o acesso dos pacientes ao CTI; 4) A estratégia de transferência de pacientes de alta dependência que deixaram de requerer recursos de alta complexidade se mostrou importante para o sistema. As três instituições parceiras não se distinguiram com relação ao índice de Comorbidade de Charlson (Altinópolis , Charlson 0, 25;28,1%, Charlson 1, 29;32,6%, Charlson 2, 35;39,3%; Guariba Charlson 0, 60;35,7%, Charlson 1, 50;29,7%, Charlson 2, 58;34,5%; São Simão, Charlson 0, 20;28,5%, Charlson 1, 17;24,3%, Charlson 2, 33;47,2% - p=0,894) e tiveram desempenho semelhante com relação à mortalidade(Altinópolis 35;39,33%, Guariba 78;46,4%, São Simão 33;47,1% - p=0,26) e alta domiciliar (Altinópolis 37;41,5%; Guariba 60;35,71%, São Simão 19;27,1% - p=0,26). Os pacientes com problemas neurológicos foram responsáveis pela maioria das transferências (Altinópolis 61;68,5%, Guariba 92;54,7%, São Simão 40;57,1% - p=0,06). Ao longo dos anos, houve melhora do desempenho das instituições com relação à mortalidade (2013,16 óbitos;44,4%, 2016, 37 óbitos;35,2% - p<0,01) e a relação de permanência na U.E.-HCFMRP-USP comparada à permanência total (soma da internação na U.E.- HCFMRP-USP e da internação nos leitos de longa permanência) decresceu (2013, 67,8 dias;0-97,7, 2016, 58,87 dias;0-100 - p=0,005). Na análise multivariada, observou-se que a transferência para leitos de longa permanência foi fator independente em aumentar a disponibilidade de leitosde CTI na U.E.-HCFMRP-USP (com o ano de 2016 1,54; IC 95% - 1,18-2,01, excluindo-se o ano de 2016 1,73; IC 95% - 1,26;2,39). 5) Não houve retardo de admissão no CTI dos pacientes sépticos que receberam prioridade 1 quando se ajustou por possíveis fatores de confusão (0,43; IC 95% - 0,35;0,53); 6) O índice prognóstico \"Quick\" SOFA teve baixa acurácia nos pacientes com sepse grave ou choque séptico admitidos na U.E.-HCFMRPUSP (AUROC= 0,5646, IC95% - 0,52991;0,59930-p<0,001). Conclusões: A Sepse apresentou elevada mortalidade mesmo quando foi garantida a admissão ao CTI em comparação com outros estudos, o que pode refletir o viés de seleção da Regulação Médica. As estratégias de gerenciamento de fluxo foram eficazes em garantir acesso e aumentar a disponibilidade de leitos. / Introduction: Sepsis is a clinical condition of disseminated and uncontrolled inflammation associated with an infectious outbreak. It is a condition difficult to study because of the variety of interactions between the various organs of the organism and lack of a uniform concept in the literature, which makes it difficult to research and establish legislation that guarantees specific promotion. Added to this, like other timedependent conditions such as acute myocardial infarction, trauma and stroke, the organization of patient flow through the health system, ensuring intensive care beds is critical. The U.E.-HCFMRP-USP is a tertiary reference for emergencies for a population of approximately 4.5 million inhabitants and has been introducing flow management mechanisms such as the prioritization of intensive care and de-hospitalization beds. These two strategies are recent in the Unified Health System (SUS) and their valuation is fundamental to identify the profile of patients with Sepsis and the importance of the organization of the system in the prognosis of this condition. Objectives: 1) To evaluate the association of the prioritization of Vacancies in Intensive Care with the mortality, morbidity and hospital stay time of the patients; 2) To evaluate the epidemiological profile of patients with sepsis admitted to U.E.-HCFMRP-USP; 3) Evaluate the strategy of prioritizing vacancies in the access of patients in severe sepsis or septic shock to intensive care beds; 4) Evaluate the transfer strategy for back beds in the offer of intensive care beds. 5) Evaluate the strategy of prioritization of vacancies in the delay to access of patients in severe sepsis or septic shock to intensive care beds; 6) To evaluate the strategy of prioritization of vacancies in the mortality of patients in severe sepsis or septic shock to intensive care beds; 7) To evaluate the \"Quick\" SOFA prognostic index in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to U.E.- HCFMRP-USP. Methodology: This is a retrospective cohort based on administrative data obtained from the electronic patient management system of the EU-HCFMRP-USP from January 01, 2010 to December 31, 20016. Two databases were constructed. The first was based on admission as an identifier, in which variables were derived, such as prioritization, demographic data, Comorbidity (Charlson Comorbidity Index), severity (\"Quick SOFA\"), clinical pathway, presence of sepsis and outcome variables. The second, based on each day of the study period, contains variables on the number of CTI beds available, number of admissions, number of discharges, number of transfers to general hospital and back hospital. We expressed quantitative variables as mean and standard deviation or median and minimum and maximum according to the normality test and categorical variables as percentage. We used Student t tests, Analysis of Variance or non-parametric equivalents, chi-square or Fisher\'s exact test and \"Receiver Operating Curves\" for univariate analysis. We used Multivariate logistic regression with binary or categorical outcome and multivariate Poisson regression as appropriate for the multivariate analysis. A p <0.05 or the exclusion of the unit from the confidence interval signaled statistical significance. Results: 1) The process of prioritizing intensive care beds was appropriate. Patients who received higher priority for CTI access (priority 1 - 5826;62,5%) were younger (55;12- 100 - p<0,01), had less comorbidities ( Charlson 0, 3583;61,5%, p<0,01) and less severity (Quick\" SOFA\" 0,2170;37,2% - p<0,01; SOFA <10% - 1782;0,5% - p<0,01). These patients were admitted in greater proportion (2097;35,9% - p<0,01) and had faster access to ICU (1081;52,5% - p<0,01), presenting lower mortality (1853;31,8% - p<0,01). When adjusting the possible confounding factors to establish the odds ratio to receive priority 1 by the intensivist, higher value of the Charlson class OR 0,53; 0,49-0,57, the \"Quick SOFA\" (Severity) - OR 0,45; 0,43-0,48 and the presence of Sepsis condition - OR 0,20-0,17;0,23 were independently associated with a lower chance of being classified as priority 1. 2) The septic patients identified in this study had older age (61;12- 97 - p<0,01), higher prevalence of male gender (646;56,2% - p<0,01), lower social protection (714;61,8% - p=0,048), higher Comorbidity (Charlson 2 - 222;19,3% - p<0,01) and Severity index (SOFA >90% - 152;13,2% - p<0,01), higher in-hospital mortality (838;73% - p<0,01), longer ICU admission delay and longer hospital stay(7,3;0-304 - p<0,01). When compared to other clinical pathways, it was observed that Sepsis can be equated with Trauma in terms of incidence (sepsis 1148;22,5% - p<0,01; trauma 1138;22,3% - p<0,01), being inferior only to Acute Coronary Syndromes (ACS) (1972;38,7% - p<0,01). In the multivariate analysis, Sepsis was more associated to lower chance of receiving priority 1(0,2; IC 95% - 0,17;0,23) independent of other confounding factors, it persisted as an independent factor for total in-hospital mortality(2,7; IC 95% - 2,32;3,17) and for the mortality of patients admitted to the ICU(2,38; IC 95% - 1,82;3,11). 3) The prioritization of vacancies facilitated the access of the septic patients to the ICU. 4) The strategy of transference of patients of high dependence that stopped requesting resources of high complexity proved to be important for the system. The three partner institutions did not differ in relation to the Charlson Comorbidity Index (Altinópolis , Charlson 0, 25;28,1%, Charlson 1, 29;32,6%, Charlson 2, 35;39,3%; Guariba Charlson 0, 60;35,7%, Charlson 1, 50;29,7%, Charlson 2, 58;34,5%; São Simão, Charlson 0, 20;28,5%, Charlson 1, 17;24,3%, Charlson 2, 33;47,2% - p=0,894) and had a similar performance in relation to mortality (Altinópolis 35;39,33%, Guariba 78;46,4%, São Simão 33;47,1% - p=0,26) and household discharge (Altinópolis 37;41,5%; Guariba 60;35,71%, São Simão 19;27,1% - p=0,26). Patients with neurological problems were responsible for most of the transfers (Altinópolis 61;68,5%, Guariba 92;54,7%, São Simão 40;57,1% - p=0,06). Over the years, there has been an improvement in the institutions\' performance in relation to mortality (2013,16 deaths;44,4%, 2016, 37 deaths;35,2% - p<0,01) and the length of stay in the EUHCFMRP- USP compared to the total stay (sum of hospitalization in the EU-HCFMRP-USP and length of stay in long-stay beds) decreased (2013, 67,8 days;0-97,7, 2016, 58,87 days;0-100 - p=0,005).In the multivariate analysis, we observed that the transfer to long-stay beds was an independent factor in increasing the availability of ICU beds in U.E.-HCFMRPUSP (with year 2016 1,54; IC - 95% 1,18;2,01, without year 2016 1,73; IC - 95% 1,26;2,39). 5) There was no delay in ICU admission for septic patients who received priority 1 when adjusted for possible confounding factors (0,43; IC 95% - 0,35;0,53).7) The \"Quick\" SOFA prognostic index had low accuracy in patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to U.E.-HCFMRP-USP (AUROC= 0,5646, IC95% - 0,52991;0,59930 - p<0,001).Conclusions: Sepsis presented a high mortality even when admission to the ICU was guaranteed in comparison to other studies, which may reflect the selection bias of the Medical Regulation. Flow management strategies were effective in securing access and increasing bed availability.

Neste estudo, a rede elétrica é utilizada como instrumento de análise para a integração territorial restrita da cidade de Tefé ao meio técnico-científico-informacional. A ocorrência de interrupções e racionamentos no fornecimento de energia elétrica na cidade, localizada no interior do estado do Amazonas, proporciona prejuízos econômicos, sociais e culturais significativos à população, dificultando seu pleno desenvolvimento. Dessa forma, o conhecimento dos principais eventos da evolução histórica da rede elétrica no território nacional e das políticas de planejamento governamental que corroboraram para o surgimento deste problema é analisado com o propósito de entender as dinâmicas socioespaciais que não facilitam a inserção dessa fração do território ao meio geográfico contemporâneo. Os projetos de integração na fronteira amazônica produziram um crescimento sem planejamento dos objetos técnicos, que, estruturados às pressas, proporcionaram obras imediatistas, realizadas em curto prazo -- o que Milton Santos (1994) chama, para os países subdesenvolvidos, de -saltar etapas?. Isso propiciou à população consequências negativas vinculadas às estruturas sociotécnicas amazônicas, que não atendem integralmente às funções que deveriam realizar, como é o caso da rede elétrica do Amazonas. A realização de uma análise de eventos, projetos e propostas que permitem sugestionar uma mitigação ou solução para esse obstáculo ao exercício do direito à cidadania do tefeense é direcionada nesta pesquisa. / In this study, the grid is used as an analytical tool for the restricted territorial integration in the city of Tefé to the technical and scientific-informational mean. The occurrence of interruptions and shortages in the electricity supply in the city, located within the State of Amazonas, provides significant economic, social and cultural losses to the population, hindering their full development. Thus, the knowledge of the main events of the historical evolution for the electric grid in the country and the government planning policies which confirmed to the emergence of this problem is analyzed in order to understand the socio-spatial dynamics that do not facilitate the insertion of this fraction in the contemporary geographical territory. Integration projects in the Amazon frontier produced an unplanned growth of technical objects, which were structured hastily, providing immediately works made in the short term, which according to Milton Santos (1994) is named by -leap-frog? in developing countries. With that, the population is linked to negative consequences related to the Amazonians socio-technical structures that do not match the functions they should undertake such as Amazon electricity grid. Performing an analysis of the events, projects and proposals allow us to suggest a mitigation or a solution to this obstacle that is related to the exercise of the tefeense citizenship right.

In the first part of the thesis I focus on credit markets in developing countries, and describe the competitive interaction between Microfinance Institutions (MFIs). <p>Microfinance has recently attracted a lot of attention from investors, politicians, scholars and, most of all, people working on development. As a results, a huge number of MFIs are being created all over the world so that, as of today, practitioners reckon that about 100 millions of customers are being served. Remarkably, about 67% of them are women. <p><p>The reason of this extraordinary effort is that Microfinance is considered the most promising development tool currently available. This belief is based on two important features of Microfinance: (i) It promises to be financially viable (and in some cases even profitable) since poor people have proven to be reliable clients. As a result, Microfinance is potentially a zero-cost development tool. (ii) It hinges on the entrepreneurial abilities of the poor. It is designed to help the poor to help themselves, in their own home countries, by allowing them to use their skills, ideas and potentials. This should progressively make developing countries independent of rich ones' help. <p><p>The growth of Microfinance has been so fast that many issues and related research questions are still not answered. In my thesis I try to address one of them, that I believe particularly important: the increase of competition between MFIs. As economic theory predicts, competition can have dramatic consequences in terms of borrower welfare, profitability of the institutions and, therefore, on the attractiveness of the business for potential investors, donors and entrants. I use the tools of industrial organization and contract theory to understand these effects, measure them, and give some interesting policy advice. <p><p>In the first paper, I analyze the effects of entry of a new MFI in a previously monopolistic microcredit market. In order to catch the salient features of financial markets in developing countries, I use a model of asymmetric information and assume that institutions can offer only one type of contract. I consider different behavioral assumptions for the MFIs and study their influence on equilibrium predictions. The model allows showing that competition can lead to equilibria in which MFIs differentiate their contracts in order to screen borrowers. This process can, unfortunately, make the poor borrowers worse off. Interestingly, the screening process we describe creates a previously unexplored source of credit rationing. I also prove that the presence in the market of an altruistic MFI, reduces rationing and, via this channel, affects positively the competitor's profit.<p><p>In the second paper, I study the effects of competition in those markets in which, due to the absence of credit bureaus, small entrepreneurs can simultaneously borrow from more than one institution. As in the first paper, I analyze an oligopolistic microcredit market characterized by asymmetric information and institutions that can offer only one type of contract. The main contribution is to show that appropriate contract design can eliminate the ex-ante incentives for multiple borrowing. Moreover, when the market is still largely unserved and particularly risky, a screening strategy leading to con- <p>tract differentiation and credit rationing is unambiguously the most effective to avoid multiple borrowing. The result of this paper can also be read as important robustness checks of the findings of my first paper. <p><p>In the last part of the thesis, I depart from the analysis of developing countries to consider, more generally, the corporate governance of financial infrastructures. The efficient functioning of financial markets relies more and more on the presence of infrastructures providing services like clearing, settlement, messaging and many others. The last years have been characterized by interesting dynamics in the ownership regime of these service providers. Both mutualizations and de-mutualizations took place, together with entry and exit of different players. <p><p>Starting from this observation, in the last paper (with Joachim Keller), we analyze the effects of competitive interaction between differently owned financial providers. We mainly focus on the incentives to invest in safety enhancing measures and we describe the different equilibrium market configurations. We use a model in which agents need an input service for the financial market they operate in. They can decide whether to provide it them selves by forming a Cooperative or outsource it from a Third Party Provider. We prove that the co-existence of differently governed infrastructures leads to a significant reduction in the investment in safety. In most cases, monopolistic provision is preferable to competition. Moreover, the decision rule used within the Cooperative plays a central role in determining the optimal market configuration. <p><p>All in all, throughout my thesis, I use the tools of industrial organization and contract theory to model the competitive interaction of the different actors operating in financial markets. Understanding the dynamics typical of developing countries can help in gaining a deeper comprehension of the markets in richer countries, and vice-versa. I am convinced that analyzing the differences and the similarities of financial markets in different regions of the world can be of great importance for economic theorists, in that it provides a counterfactual for the assumptions and the results on which our predictions and policy advices are based.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This thesis explores the origin of one of the most engrossing concerns of the post-colonial Indian state, that is, its extensive, intricate, and expensive feeding arrangements for the civilians. It tracks the colonial origin of the post-colonial welfare state, of which state-management of food is one of the most publicized manifestations. This thesis examines the intervention of the late colonial British state in food procurement and distribution in India during the Second World War, and various forms of such intervention, such as the introduction of food rationing and food austerity laws. It argues that the war necessitated actions on the part of the colonial state to secure food supplies to a vastly expanded British Indian Army, to the foreign Allied troops stationed in India, and to the workers employed in war-industries. The thesis brings forth the constitutional and political predicaments that deprived the colonial central government's food administration of success. It further reveals how the bitter bargaining about food imports into India between the Government of India and the War Cabinet in Britain hampered the state efforts to tackle the food crisis. By discussing the religious and cultural codes vis-à-vis food consumption that influenced government food policies, this thesis has situated food in the historiography of consumption in colonial India. In addition to adopting a political approach to study food, it has also applied sociological treatment, particularly while dealing with how the wartime scarcity, and consequent austerity laws, forced people to accept novel consumption cultures. It also contributes to the historiography of 'everyday state'. Through its wartime intervention in everyday food affairs, the colonial state that had been distant and abstract in the perception of most common households, suddenly became a reality to be dealt with in everyday life within the domestic site. Thus, the macro state penetrated micro levels of existence. The colonial state now even developed elaborate food surveillance to gather intelligence about violation of food laws. This thesis unravels the responses of some of the political and religious organizations to state intervention in quotidian food consumption. Following in this vein, through a study of the political use of famine-relief in wartime Bengal, it introduces a new site to the study of communal politics in India, namely, propagation of Hindu communal politics through distribution of food by the Hindu Mahasabha party. Further, it demonstrates how the Muslim League government's failure to prevent the Great Bengal Famine of 1943-44 was politically used by the Mahasabha to oppose the League's emerging demand for the creation of Pakistan.

Orientador: José Antônio Siqueira Dias / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T20:20:29Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tavares_MauricioLopes_D.pdf: 1729620 bytes, checksum: bd266f4180967d2a0b7dc91a0e56b872 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Bens econômicos são classificados como rivais, não-rivais e anti-rivais. É proposta uma nova categoria: bens de rivalidade extrema (RE) para adequada classificação da eletricidade. A RE se manifesta quando o consumidor marginal demanda do sistema a última unidade de eletricidade disponível na rede o que implica no completo desligamento do sistema, mesmo que essa unidade não disponível seja infinitesimal em relação à capacidade plena, o que é uma característica única. Governos coordenam investimentos em capacidade excedente para lidar com esse fenômeno, porém essa tal capacidade extra prejudica a concorrência, a inovação e investimentos em eficiência energética e fontes alternativas. O Gerenciamento da Rivalidade Extrema (GRE) propõe tratar de maneira diferente o fenômeno da RE através de capacidades de rede inteligente para promover de maneira individualizada e organizada a desconexão de consumidores quando ocorrem situações críticas de suprimento, seguindo uma ordem que desconecta prioritariamente os consumidores menos sensíveis a interrupções. A política de Valor de Segurança do Suprimento (VSS) se baseia em declarações dos consumidores a respeito de quanto estão dispostos a pagar em eventos críticos para evitar serem desconectados. Essa política inicia desconexões individualizadas de consumidores que declararam VSS = 0 procedendo em ordem crescente de valores de VSS até que seja equilibrada a demanda e a oferta e assegurado o equilíbrio do sistema. Todos consumidores que forem preservados devem pagar o VSS declarado, cuja receita pode ser usada para remunerar consumidores que foram desconectados ou financiar investimentos em expansão de capacidade / Abstract: Economic goods are classified as rival, non-rival and anti-rivals goods. We propose a new category: extreme rivalry goods (ER) for proper classification of electricity. ER manifests itself when the marginal consumer demands the last unit of electricity available on the grid implying in a complete shutdown of the system, even though by an infinitesimal amount compared to the total capacity, which is a unique feature. Governments coordinate investments in overcapacity to deal with this with the downside of preventing competition, innovation and undermining investments in energy efficiency and alternative energy. Management of Extreme Rivalry (MER) uses a different approach to ER relying in smart grid features to promote individualized and ordered disconnection of consumers when there is a critical supply situation, following a queue that begins with consumers less sensitive to disconnections. A policy of "Value of Supply Maintenance" (VSM) is based on declarations from consumers about how much they are willing to pay during critical supply events to prevent being disconnected. The VSM method begins disconnecting consumers who informed VSM = 0 proceeding in order of increasing VSM values until the balance between generation and consumption is ensured to balance the system. All preserved consumers must pay the VSM / Doutorado / Eletrônica, Microeletrônica e Optoeletrônica / Doutor em Engenharia Elétrica