Déséquilibres macroéconomiques et leur résolution. / Large imbalances in both the US and within the Eurozone preceded the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 (the Great Recession). Ex-post, it seems surprising that not enough attention was given to the fast rise of these imbalances -especially to the development of housing price bubbles- by economists, and even less by policy makers. A long period of relatively low macroeconomic volatility occurring between the mid-1980s to the late 2000s -the so called “Great Moderation”- along with the underestimation of the existence of bubbles in asset prices gave the impression that the large crises of the past were unlikely to reappear. Many economic commentators even saw this as a sign of the decreased relevance of the International Monetary Fund since the global financial stability seemed warranted. The policy of low inflation was viewed by most in the economics profession as more than sufficient to maintain macro stability, and the efficient market hypothesis, developed first by Eugene Fama in the 1970s, dominated the macro-models used in the academia, international organizations, and in central banks (Shiller’s best seller “Irrational Exuberance”was among one of the courageous exceptions). As a result of this inattention, the fast unwinding of these imbalances plunged in 2008-2009 the global economy in an unprecedented crisis -by many measures- since the Great Depression. The recovery from the Great Recession has been slow, with a “double-dip” recession in the Eurozone, and the prospects for a return to sustained high growth still remain uncertain.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-01T23:26:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_9826_DISSERTAÇÃO FINAL.pdf: 516782 bytes, checksum: f8a8e0ac8e3f39b30abbc544c45a8cf3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-12 / Não existem estudos conclusivos que determinem a exata relação entre a recessão gengival e a hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical. Diante da prevalência do problema de hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical associado com a recessão gengival, justifica-se a importância do conhecimento da relação destas condições clinicas. O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar pacientes com recessão gengival vestibular e sua associação com a hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical em estudo clínico em 61 pacientes atendidos na Clínica Odontológica do Curso de Odontologia da UFES. Eles foram selecionados quanto à presença de recessão gengival e após identificada a recessão o paciente foi submetido a avaliação com o intuito de identificar a relação com hipersensibilidade da dentinária cervical. Foram anotados de todos os pacientes dados referentes à idade, sexo, e o tipo de dente. No exame clínico foram avaliados os seguintes parâmetros: determinação da presença ou não do sangramento, presença visível de placa, altura da recessão gengival e hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical. O grau de sensibilidade foi classificado utilizando estímulo térmico (Endo-Ice Spray MAQUIRA®- PR/ Brasil), segundo UCHIDA em grau 0,1,2,3 sendo 0 (sem desconforto significativo),1 (desconforto, mas sem dor considerável), 2 (dor aguda durante a aplicação do estímulo), 3 (dor aguda durante e após a aplicação do estímulo). A associação entre os dentes que apresentam recessão gengival e a presença de hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical apresentou significância estatística com p<0,001, sendo a soma do grau sensibilidade em 69,5%, com índice 3 em 39,6% seguido de índice 2 com 29,9%. A recessão gengival e hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical são mais comuns do lado esquerdo do que o lado direito da arcada dentária com mais recessão gengival do lado esquerdo 56.4% (87 dentes) do que do lado direito 43,6% (67 dentes), o sangramento à sondagem e o índice de placa visível não apresentaram significância estatística ao nível de 5% (p = 0,227 e p = 0,687). Conclui-se que houve relação entre hipersensibilidade dentinária cervical e recessão gengival. / The gingival recession is commonly associated to cervical dentinal hypersensitivity. However, there are no conclusive studies which determine such relationship. The prevalence between these two clinical conditions is usually originated in cervical dentinal hypersensitivity, associated with gingival recession and it justifies the importance of understanding the relationship of these clinical conditions. The objective of this clinical study is to evaluate patients with vestibular gingival recession and the relationship of such condition with the cervical dentin hypersensitivity. Sixtyone patients were submitted to treatment at the Dental Clinic of the UFES School of Dentistry with gingival recession. Subjects were examined in search for the presence of gingival recession and evaluated in order to identify the relationship of each lesion with the cervical dentinal hypersensitivity. Age, gender and teeth type were taken into consideration. The following parameters were recorded through clinical examination: presence or absence of bleeding, visible presence of plaque/biofilm, gingival recession and cervical dentin hypersensitivity. The sensitivity factor (UCHIDA) was applied for sensitivity measurement. The association between the teeth with gingival recession and the presence of cervical dentin hypersensitivity showed statistical significance p<0.001, where the sum of the sensitivity factors were: 69.5% with index 3 in 39.6% of subjects, followed by index 2 featuring 29.9. It was observed, within the studied group, that gingival recession and cervical dentine hypersensitivity are more common on the left side than on the right side of the dentin with arch gingival recession on the left 56.4% (87 teeth) than the right side of 43.6% (67 teeth), bleeding on probing and visible biofilm index were not statistically significant at 5% (p=0.227 and p=0.687). It was concluded that there is a relationship between cervical dentin hypersensitivity and gingival recession.

This dissertation contributes to theoretical and empirical studies in microeconomics, with a focus on evaluating policy relevant problems to provide new insights into questions. Within labor economics, I strive to understand the labor market returns to skills, taking into consideration the business cycle. In the first chapter, I investigate how the labor market returns to cognitive skills and social skills vary during recessions. In the second chapter, I examine the short-, medium and long-term career outcomes of college graduates as a function of economic conditions at graduation and both cognitive and social skills. In the third chapter, within information economics, I study how asymmetric information and demand uncertainty influence pricing strategies through learning. In Chapter 1, I examine how labor market returns to cognitive skills and social skills vary with the business cycle over the past 20 years, using data from the NLSY79 and the NLSY97. Exploiting a comparable set of cognitive and social skill measures across survey waves, I show that an increase in the unemployment rate led to higher demand for cognitive skills in the 2000s. High unemployment also sorted more workers into information use intensive occupations that require computer skills in the 2000s, but it sorted more workers into routine occupations in the 1980s and 1990s. This evidence suggests that recessions accelerate the restructuring of production toward routine-biased technologies. I also find that the returns to social skills increase during periods of high unemployment, though only in terms of the likelihood of full-time employment for experienced workers. Furthermore, an increase in unemployment increases the social skill task intensity of a worker's occupation in the 2000s, while it shows the contrary in the 1980s and 1990s. Based on these results, I argue that routine-biased technological change may not readily substitute for workers in tasks requiring interpersonal interaction, and therefore such technologies demand experienced laborers who have high social skills during recessions. In Chapter 2, I study the impacts of entry conditions on labor market outcomes to cognitive and social skills for the US college graduating classes of 1979–1989. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, I find that Workers with higher cognitive skills are more likely to be employed, find job more quickly and have higher-quality employment, while those with higher social skills voluntarily switch jobs more often. I also show that graduating in a worse economy intensifies the roles of social skills, allowing workers with higher social skills to catch up more quickly from poor initial conditions by switching jobs more often. This could partly explain why wage returns to cognitive skills declines but wage returns to social skills increases from graduating in recessions. In Chapter 3, we consider a dynamic pricing problem facing a seller who has private information about the quality of her good, but is uncertain about the arrival rate of buyers. Restricting attention to the equilibria in which the high-quality seller insists on a constant price, we show that the low-quality seller's expected payoff and equilibrium pricing strategy crucially depend on buyers' knowledge about the demand state. If they are also uncertain about the demand state, then demand uncertainty increases the low-quality seller's expected payoff, and her optimal pricing strategy is to offer a high price initially and drop it to a low price later. If buyers know the demand state, then demand uncertainty does not affect the low-quality seller's expected payoff, and a simple cutoff pricing strategy cannot be a part of equilibrium. In the latter case, we show that there exists an equilibrium in which the low-quality seller begins with a low price, switches up to a high price, and eventually reverts back to the low price.

<div>In my main dissertation essay, I investigate advertising spending during a recession. Advertising plays an important role in creating awareness, preference and purchase intent for many products and services. However, advertising is often cut when a firm needs to control costs. This empirical study examines a unique set of factors which motivated 553 firms to change their advertising spending during the Great Recession. The first half of the Great Recession had a moderate 2% decline in GDP and 1% to 2% cuts in advertising spending. The seasonality effect was weaker, which indicates that firms were not as likely to carryover spending from the prior year. The peak of the Great Recession had a GDP decline as high as 7%, which is considered severe. Average advertising spending declined by 13%. In addition to the seasonality effect, decreasing sales decreased advertising spending. Increasing firm risk tends to decrease advertising spending during the peak of the Great Recession, but not before. Finally, firms in high advertising intensity industries, where advertising is strategically important, had modest budget cuts. In contrast, firms in low-intensity industries had much larger percentage cuts.</div><div>The second essay examines real earnings management using advertising budgets” examines. Real earnings management occurs when managers change real activities to meet or beat important earnings benchmarks. Advertising has a limited short-term impact on firm sales for many products. Therefore, when a firm’s earnings are below key benchmarks for a fiscal quarter (year), managers are compelled to reduce advertising expenditures to boost earnings. This study examines factors which persuade firms to manage earnings using advertising budgets. Similar to earlier studies, we find firms suspect of managing earnings upwards reducing advertising expenses. The findings indicate that B2C firms are more likely to manage earnings by reducing advertising expenses than B2B firms. The findings also reveal that suspect firms which spend more in high advertising elasticity mediums such as TV do not reduce advertising spending as much as firms which spend more in low advertising elasticity mediums such as newspapers and magazines. The study also find evidence to suggest that suspect firms which report advertising expenditure in their income statement make smaller advertising spending cuts than firms which don’t report advertising expenditure. Finally, earnings management activity is much stronger during the last quarter of the fiscal year.</div>

US economic recession from 2007- 2009, also known as the Great Recession, negatively impacted the financial sector as well as other aspects of society. Researchers have found value-based measures and accounting measures as effective performance measures, but they have found inconclusive results when comparing the strengths of economic value added (EVA) and accounting measures in predicting stock performance. This study used data from the Great Recession to further compare EVA and accounting measures. The purpose of this cross-sectional or correlational study was to determine the relative predictive strength of EVA during the Great Recession to determine whether a model with EVA added to accounting measures did a better job predicting stock returns. Secondary were data collected from a sample of 93 Fortune 500 Companies from 2007-2009 and then analyzed via multivariate regression analysis. The null hypothesis was not rejected. The result showed that EVA was not a useful addition to accounting variables in predicting stock returns during the Great Recession. Although the findings did not support EVA as a better predictor of stock returns during the Great Recession, the study revealed useful information about value-based measures and value-creation, especially how they are impacted by the period of a severe economic downturn. Researchers have indicated that creating value for shareholders enables the funding of positive-net-present-value projects that would result in positive social change. This study revealed that firms are unlikely to create shareholder value through returns on investment for a positive social change in unfavorable economic conditions.

The Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) was among the first legislative responses to the financial and mortgage crises of 2008 and allowed the U.S. government to alleviate distressed financial institutions of equity and assets that were straining the housing and financial markets. However, the underlying economic events that precipitated the legislative intervention, including rising foreclosure rates in specific states, had been disproportionately affecting Americans months before the bill was signed into law. The purpose of this dissertation was to determine the parameters of the issue public that was supportive of TARP by studying how demographic and geographic disparities of the recession were related to selective exposure to news media and the formation of this issue public. The news effects theoretical perspectives of agenda setting and media priming, including attribute agenda setting and attribute priming, along with the theoretical framework of the public opinion concept of issue publics, particularly state-specific issue publics, guided and informed the execution of this research. This dissertation entailed two research approaches: a content analysis of national television news six months prior to and up until the passage of TARP in early October 2008, and a secondary analysis of select data from the 2008 National Annenberg Election Survey, a rolling cross-sectional phone survey conducted from late 2007 until Election Day 2008. Results from the content analysis study suggest national television news of the economy in 2008 predominantly covered the presidential election, the economic attributes of taxes and inflation, and presented the economic crisis as a national issue. As for the public opinion study, economic attitudes were predictive of support for TARP, but exposure to the news and demographics, including geography, were not associated with support for TARP. Overall, the unfolding recession was not frequently covered on national television news in 2008, and support for TARP was found to be associated with an individual's attitudes as opposed to demographic identity or geographic location. Findings suggest attribute agenda-setting effects were most likely for individual views of blame for the crisis, while the issue public that was supportive of TARP appeared to be based upon economic attitudes.

The primary objective of this research study was to examine employment and housing problems (stemming from the 2007-2009 Recession) and to see if there was a correlation between those problems and marital satisfaction and/or the perceived likelihood of future separation or divorce. A second purpose for this study was to see if feelings of financial stress (economic pressure) were mainly responsible for the projected drops in marital satisfaction or increases with divorce proneness. A final purpose for this study was to understand how other factors might additionally influence the relationships between recession-related employment problems and housing problems and the marital outcome variables. These factors included gender, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and existing debt load. This study found that housing-related financial problems were associated with both lower marital satisfaction and a higher perceived likelihood of future separation or divorce. The economic pressure variable provided additional understanding regarding why couples with housing-related financial problems were more likely to have less desirable marital outcomes. Likewise, gender, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, and existing debt load also provided some modification of the existing relationships between housing-related financial problems and marital satisfaction and divorce proneness. However, this study did not find an association between employment-related financial problems and marital satisfaction or the perceived likelihood of future separation or divorce.

<p>If you happen to be an American and have trouble sleeping, do not attempt to fall asleep watching the nightly news because it is anything but boring. At a glance, the American economy seems to be in shambles. The United States has an all-time high deficit, the housing market has crashed or is in the process of doing so, capital markets are becoming increasingly volatile and credit institutions in and outside the US are reporting heavy losses. The American presidential elections will take place this November, and there is no question that the economy will be one of the main issues.</p><p>How has the unstable economic atmosphere affected the financial behavior of households in the United States and where have they received the financial information and advice from? Have the changes that they have made in their personal savings/investments and asset portfolios changed in any way and if so, are these changes based on rational decisions or mere hunches?</p><p>This paper intends to answer these questions through a qualitative approach by interviewing eight tailor picked households in the United States. We take a constructionist ontological position assuming that social entities have a reality that is constructed by the perception of social actors. Furthermore, we have taken the epistemological Interpretevist stance assuming that we study the world by looking at its social actors.</p><p>We have utilized a number of theories to aid us through our deductive approach where we collect theory, then collect data, analyze the findings, confirm or reject existing theory, then revisit the existing theory with the new data. The main theories include the Efficient Market Hypothesis, Behavioral Finance, Metacommunication and Dissemination of Information and Animal Spirits including all their subsidiary theories.</p><p>The interview process involved utilizing an unstructured format and once interviews were collected, they were compiled into summarized form through an emotionalist approach. Conclusions were then drawn by finding common denominators between the interviewees’ sentiments. We found the signs of Keynes’ Animal Spirits, overreaction to information, and amplification of information through private sources. Furthermore, we have been able to find that advice had changed over the past year although we were unable to conclude how it had changed. Finally, a number of findings including people’s risk averse behavior towards volatile stock markets gave us an overall picture of the Efficient Market Hypothesis being less true in this situation than Behavioral Finance.</p>

<p>This study will focus on the luxury market and how this market has been affected by the present recession. The economic downturn have had a major impact on today’s business and consumption, practically all industries have been affected. However there exist different opinions about how the luxury market have been influenced, certain experts mean that this segment is recession proof while others believe that this market will experience the worst side-effects. For that reason we find it interesting to analyze the luxury market and develop our own opinion about the impact of the recession. The paper will emphasize the luxury sectors marketing actions and the impact on businesses. We have used a qualitative approach based on eight different interviews. The respondents have been carefully chosen to fulfill our purpose. These interviews will be fully presented in the appendix and will constitute the base of the analysis. Since the paper is written with a qualitative approach, it is difficult to make any generalizations regarding luxury in recession. Nevertheless the analysis and conclusion shown in chapter five and six will both be interesting and instructive.</p>

<p><strong>Bakgrund:</strong> Fonder är en sparform som har utvecklats och blivit en av de mest populära och framgångsrika placeringsformerna på marknaden. Många företag väljer därför, efter en högkonjunktur följd av möjlighet till reservsparande, att investera på fondmarknaden för att kunna öka sitt kapital under kommande lågkonjunktur. Att välja en stor och trögrörlig eller en liten och snabbfotat fond kan vara av avgörande karaktär när man ska se till utvecklingen.</p><p><strong>Problemformulering:</strong> Har fondstorleken betydelse vid placering i fonder under lågkonjunktur?</p><p><strong>Syfte:</strong> Klargöra huruvida fondstorleken har betydelse för avkastningen vid placering i svenska aktiefonder under lågkonjunktur.</p><p><strong>Metod:</strong> Studien använder sig av metodtriangulering där ett kvantitativt upplägg kombineras med ett kvalitativt inslag i form av en intervju. En deduktiv ansats anammas. Urvalet har valts ut genom ett bekvämlighetsurval och datainsamling har skett i form av sekundärdata från Morningstar, Riksbanken samt Affärsvärlden. Med den informationen har uppsatsens empiri och resultat grundlagts och kunnat kopplas till teorier, tidigare forskning samt allmän uppfattning om fonder i analysen.</p><p><strong>Slutsats:</strong> Undersökningen visar att stora fonder, tätt följt av medelstora fonder, är den bästa investeringen under lågkonjunktur. Små fonder är mer snabbrörliga, har en högre standardavvikelse och risk men det innebär inte generellt att det utmynnar i en högre avkastning.</p> / <p><strong>Background:</strong> Fund saving is nowadays a very popular investment strategy when it comes to putting money aside on the market. After a big economic boom, with the potential of gathering up assets, companies choose  to invest in the fund market with the possibility to increase their wealth when a recession is up and coming. When it comes to how well the fund is developing, one needs to make a critical decision and choose either a big and sluggish one or a small and swift-footed one.</p><p><strong>Problem formulation:</strong> Does fund size matter when investing in funds during recession?</p><p><strong>Purpose:</strong> Determine whether fund size has an impact on return rate when investing in Swedish mutual funds during recession.</p><p><strong>Method:</strong> Different types of methods will be used throughout the study to ensure good quality and enough quantity. Mainly quantitative layout (data gathering from the Swedish State Bank, Morningstar and Affärsvärlden) featuring a qualitative interview and a deductive approach. With established empirics and elicited results, the study has been able to connect the theories used, the previous research in the field and the common view of funds among society to its analysis.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Theory suggests that large funds, closely followed by mediumsized funds are the best investment during recessions. Small funds are more fastmoving, has a higher standard deviation and risk but it does not, generally, out-flow into a higher return.</p>