Considering the impact of transaction costs on trade volumes and prices in Europe, in our thesis, we carried out an overview of the costs of crossing borders and an assessment of the degree of fragmentation of the product market in this world area. Throughout the analysis, we paid attention to the country and/ or industry dimension and at how country- and sector-specific patterns affect the European product market integration process. A special attention is also devoted to the model specifications and estimation techniques. Having discussed extensively the foundations of the gravity equation and the properties of the gravity model with the aim of empirical works in the first chapter of our dissertation, chapter two provides a first assessment of the extent of the integration in Europe by measuring the trade intensity via an augmented gravity equation. The study measures the impact of regional trade agreements (RTAs) on Members’ trade in the European zone and highlights that despite the ongoing enlargement process of its free trade area, the European zone displays rather weak RTAs impacts - in comparison with what one could expect -. The chapter also highlights a number of caveats and difficulties when one wants to accurately measure the extent of trade creation brought about the RTAs in Europe. In particular, the existence of zero observations (non observed commodity flows) between country pairs might have important drawbacks in the estimations. Since disaggregated trade data can be very insightful, chapter three implements such an analysis. Using a gravity-like equation as well, it provides a border effect estimations carried out in a multi-country and multi-sector context. Our findings reveal that remaining technical barriers to trade, market structure and degree of product differentiation play an important role in the explanation of border effects. Furthermore, our results succeed to derive a strongly negative impact of nominal exchange rate volatility on trade, whereas traditional gravity specifications fail to identify this clearly – when regional dummies are introduced-. Hence, chapter two and three provide an overview, via the trade channel, of the degree of integration of the product market in Europe: While European agreements (EAs) in terms of trade are effective, bilateral trade relationships face steady impediments. As expected, intra-EAs trade increases and exports from Member States to non Member States decline. The trade obstacles have many sources. In particular, volatility of the nominal exchange rate is found to have trade-reducing effects. Our results also underscore the interest of using sector disaggregated date since we find that the degree of product differentiation and the market structure enter in the explanation of border effects. Moreover, the various approaches to harmonize the remaining technical barriers to trade on sector desegregation basis were found to act in reducing on the European Union border effect. As for chapter four, it re-visits the issue of price convergence within the EMU. Specifically, we test whether the Law of One Price (LOOP) can be validated over the period 1984-2004. Our results fail to support the LOOP for a large majority of sectors and countries under examination. Furthermore, our findings reveal half-lives of deviation from the LOOP suggesting a price adjustment which is globally less slow that commonly estimated in the literature. Indeed, the EMU is anticipated to affect the behaviour of trading firms that should result in a faster cross-border transmission of price movements across Member States. When attempting to explain the factors at work in the LOOP failure, we highlight that beside the European convergence process, the arbitrage channel explain a non negligible part of the country mean reversion in terms of relative prices. Nevertheless, mixed evidence is found for the impact of cross- country and cross-sector variables.

In this thesis, historical institutional analysis of neo-institutionalism will be adopted as the research approach. The analysis combining the international institutional background and domestic institutional development in China and Hong Kong indicates the structural dynamics and strategic goals why China establishes CEPA with Hong Kong. Besides, I focus on the provisions of CEPA and summarize the difficulties of further development and perspectives. I wish this thesis could be studied as reference for scholars and experts in the field of Mainland China studies.

Cette thèse vise à contribuer aux récents débats sur les avantages potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale entre les pays Africains. Elle le fait en abordant la triptyque Accords Régionaux de Commerce(ACRs), bien-être et conflits.Le continent Africain fait face aujourd’hui à deux enjeux majeurs de gouvernance : l’intégration régionale et la gestion des conflits armés. En effet, les performances commerciales des pays africains restent toujours marginales comparativement au reste du monde. Et ce, malgré les différentes politiques commerciales mises en œuvre depuis les années 70 (politique d'import-substitution, accord régional nord-sud, etc.…). Parmi ces politiques commerciales, les gouvernements Africains ont décidé de privilégier les accords régionaux en vu d’accroître le commerce entre les pays membres. Ces accords ont-ils eu l'effet escompté ? Dans quelle mesure ?Si on se réfère au point de vue largement partagé, la réponse semble être négative. Cependant cette réponse ignore les bénéfices politiques potentiels de l'ouverture commerciale. A ce titre, le travail présenté ici étudie l'effet des accords régionaux africains sur le commerce et le bien-être. Cela en utilisant les derniers développements de la théorie du commerce international ainsi que les meilleures techniques d'estimations des équations de gravité. Deuxièmement, Nous analysons l'effet de l'augmentation du commerce sur la probabilité de survenance d'une guerre civile à la fois de façon théorique et empirique. Les résultats obtenus, nous permettent de conclure que sans la signature des ACRs, près de la moitié des échanges entre leurs membres n'auraient pas été réalisé. D'autre part, cette thèse affirme que le commerce, à la fois domestique et international permet de diminuer le risque de conflit civil en Afrique. / This thesis aims to contribute to recent debates on the potential benefits of trade openness among African countries. This, by addressing the triptych regional trade agreements, welfare and conflict.The African continent is currently facing two major governance challenges: regional integration and the management of armed conflicts. Indeed, the trade performance of African countries remains marginal compared to the rest of the world. This is despite the different trade policies implemented since the 1970s (import substitution policy, North-South regional agreement, etc.). Among these trade policies, African governments have decided to focus on regional agreements in order to increase trade among member countries. Have these agreements had the expected effect ? To what extent ?If we refer to popular belief, the answer seems to be no. However, this answer ignores the potential political benefits of trade openness. As such, the work presented here first examines the effect of African regional agreements on trade and welfare. This is done using the latest developments in international trade theory and the best techniques for estimating gravity equations. Second, we analyze both theoretically and empirically the effect of increased trade on the probability of a civil war occurring. The results obtained allow us to conclude, on the one hand, that nearly half of the trade between members of trade agreements in Africa would not have been possible without the signing of the RTAs. On the other hand, both domestic and international trade, reduces the risk of civil conflict in Africa.

The objective of this paper is to assess the bilateral exports from an origin to a destination, in the context of countries belonging to the Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), and whether or not the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) leads to trade creation or trade diversion, or both. To study this, a panel gravity model is employed with 135 countries, from 2000-2014, using a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood method (PPML). To study the impact of AFTA on trade creation/diversion, a set of three dummy variables are used, denoting whether the origin country belongs to ASEAN, whether the destination country belongs to ASEAN and finally, whether both origin and the destination countries belong to ASEAN. Along with AFTA, five other Regional Trade Agreements (RTA) are also taken into account. The main finding of this paper is that there is no pure trade creation nor pure trade diversion due to AFTA, but rather a significant export trade creation, that is, ASEAN’s exports to the rest of the world is positive and significant. Future policy implications could include measures to strengthen the regional economic cooperation amongst the members of ASEAN.

This study examines the impact of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine on agriculture trade and agriculture businesses in the region. We argue that the Association Agreement is a Regional Trade Agreement in accordance with provisions of the GATT, and thereby apply established arguments of the positive and negative effects of the Association Agreement. To analyse the impact and establish a trend, we have utilised data from EU’s agricultural imports from Ukraine, Ukraine’s agriculture production output, and EU exports from one of Ukraine’s largest grain exporters. The agriculture commodities used to represent the agriculture data in the analysis are corn, wheat, seed oils, rapeseed, and sunflower seeds.  To support our discussion of the trends depicted in the data, we have applied the principles of the Theory of Free Trade, and its opposing theory, Protectionism. The findings suggest that the Association Agreement has facilitated a policy shift in the Ukrainian agriculture industry towards EU and away from Russia. However, we cannot limit out the possibility that this shift was inevitable with or without the Association Agreement considering Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine since 2014. Ukrainian agriculture exports to the EU have gradually increased since the implementation of the Association Agreement, and we infer that the Association Agreement plays a role in this increase. Our findings also suggest that agriculture businesses in the frontline five countries have been negatively impacted by the Autonomous Trade Measures which were introduced under the Association Agreement, but we argue that this was never the intention of the legislation. Lastly, we find that Multilateralism is achieved through a regionalist policy in this specific case, but that due to unforeseen circumstances does not reach its full potential.

京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第25079号 / 経博第686号 / 新制||経||306(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 神事 直人, 准教授 高野 久紀, 教授 森 知也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

Special and differential treatment (SDT) provisions in GATT were created to assist developing countries achieve economic progress while assimilating into the multilateral trading system. Despite these intentions, global trade imbalances still persist. Within this context, I focus on the region of East Asia which has experienced astounding growth in just several decades, propelling it far beyond other developing country regions. Although international trade continues to be the crucial factor driving growth in the region, reliance on SDT has in certain circumstances hindered development. As such, East Asia should seek alternatives to SDT. In that vein, I argue that sustainable growth and trade liberalization can be achieved by enhancing integration through a regional trade agreement. I further discuss various proposals for an East Asian trade agreement such as ASEAN+3, FTAAP, and EARTA. Finally, I highlight the importance of governance and identify several institutions essential for a successful regional arrangement.

Special and differential treatment (SDT) provisions in GATT were created to assist developing countries achieve economic progress while assimilating into the multilateral trading system. Despite these intentions, global trade imbalances still persist. Within this context, I focus on the region of East Asia which has experienced astounding growth in just several decades, propelling it far beyond other developing country regions. Although international trade continues to be the crucial factor driving growth in the region, reliance on SDT has in certain circumstances hindered development. As such, East Asia should seek alternatives to SDT. In that vein, I argue that sustainable growth and trade liberalization can be achieved by enhancing integration through a regional trade agreement. I further discuss various proposals for an East Asian trade agreement such as ASEAN+3, FTAAP, and EARTA. Finally, I highlight the importance of governance and identify several institutions essential for a successful regional arrangement.

1990年代以來，區域貿易協定的數目呈現倍數成長，發展到今日，全世界已約有230個FTA。然而臺灣卻因政治因素被屏除在區域經濟整合之外，將為臺灣經濟帶來諸多挑戰，我國若欲走出困境、強化在國際間的競爭力，勢必要有所作為。因此馬英九總統在競選總統時就以「與世界連結，參與全球區域經濟整合」為經貿政策主軸，而充分利用中國大陸現有的資源與市場，與其簽署區域貿易協定更是最具關鍵性的一步。經過多次正式與非正式的溝通協調，2010年6月29日，兩岸正式在重慶簽署ECFA，並於同年9月12日正式實施。 但從ECFA議題拋出到簽署實施，各界的爭辯從未停止，究竟ECFA對臺灣是危機還是轉機？是幫助臺灣走向世界還是被鎖進中國？值得深入研究，因此本文藉由國內外相關文獻來探討簽署ECFA對我國政治、經濟社會以及國家安全層面的影響，以增加閱讀者對ECFA的了解，也能成為政府推動ECFA的參考。 / Since 1990s, the number of the region trade agreements has been doubling, and until now there has been a total of 230 FTAs around the world. However, due to political factors, Taiwan has been dismissed outside the regional economies conformity, which will bring many obstacles toward the economic development in Taiwan. If our country intends to walk away from the dilemma and raise our competiveness, some steps must be taken. Therefore, while running for the presidency, President Ma Yingjiu brought up, 〝Links with the world, participates in the whole world regional economies conformity〞 as his economics and trade policy. By fully making using at the mainland China’s existing resources and markets, it was a must for Taiwan to sign the region trade agreement with china. After several official and unofficial communication and coordinating, on June 29, 2010, the Cross-Strait ECFA was signed officially in Chongqing, and implemented in the same year on September 12. Nevertheless, since the ECFA was carried out and signed, the debates from all walks of life has never come to an end. Is ECFA a crisis or a turning point for Taiwan？ Does it the help Taiwan to move toward the world or to be locked within China？It is worthwhile to conduct a research to clear out the doubts. This article dims to take a deeper look at how ECFA is influenced on Taiwan n terms of politics, economy, and national security. So that not only can the readers have a better understanding of the ECFA but also the government refers to it while the implementation of policy.

<p>The rapid growth in the number of regional trade agreements (RTAs) has led to concern about the weakening of the multilateral trading system. This thesis examines the spread of such agreement and the extent to which they pose a threat to the multilateral system. Regionalism and multilateralism are complimentary as shown in the case study of the East African Community. The current regional trade agreement management rules are weak and ambiguous and possible amendments for these rules are proposed</p>