The thesis focuses on the analysis of the impact of the inflation uncertainty on the reinsurance pricing, particularly on its measures of risk. Vector autoregression models are used to predict the medium-term inflation and simulate different inflation paths. The consideration of various scenarios of future inflation captured by the stochastic modelling increases the value at risk (VaR) and the tail value of risk (TVaR) of mean ceded loss to the reinsurer. The thesis founds that the inflation uncertainty measured by the stochastic inflation matters and it is important from risk management and hedging perspectives. As a result, additional loadings could be added to the price for the mitigation of the inflation risk. Although the effect of stochasticity of the future inflation is not significant on mean loss, it is the case for the risk of measures, especially for the contracts with high retention relatively to the underlying exposure. JEL Classification F12, F21, F23, H25, H71, H87 Keywords reinsurance pricing, inflation forecasting, inflation risk, long-tail line of business Title Macroeconomic Uncertainty: An Exogenous Risk in Reinsurance Pricing

本研究之主要貢獻為發展適合台灣營造綜合險保單（本體損失險）之風險曲線。 先前由Salzmann (1963)及Ludwig (1998)之相關研究，係採用美國市場之損失經驗，考量不同保單之承保範圍、不同保險標的、及不同之承保風險，直接引用美國市場風險曲線於台灣市場之通用性值得釐清。 本研究回顧台灣營造綜合險保單之承保範圍及除外條款，依據西元一九九六年至兩千年之損失經驗，發現台灣營造綜合險之損率深受天然災害如地震、颱風、豪雨所影響。 再保險安排可分成兩大類，一是比例再保險; 另一是非比例再保險。風險曲線是非比例再保險常用之計價方式之一。 比較先前之研究，本研究之風險曲線分佈集中在低層其主要之原因如下:- 一、 分析標的之可能最大損失(PML)偏低: PML代表某一特定危險所可能造成之可能最大損失。以道路工程為例，其可能最大損失小於30%之保額。由於道路工程大多綿延數十公里甚或更長，其工程本身呈線狀之分佈。換言之，非常不可能會有單一損失其損失金額超過保額之30%。 因此，道路工程之損失分佈不平均且分佈集中在低層。 二、 營造綜合險保期偏長: 營造工程其中一個特性為多年期的保險期間。 因為工程之進行往往需要花超過一年的時間來完成，因此，營造綜合險全損(損失金額等於保額)之機率，遠小於財產險因火災造成全損之機率。 三、 分析之承保風險不同: Salzmann (1963)僅針對火災此一危險因子來從事她的研究。就我們所知，美國大多數住宅皆是木造，屬可燃性建材，火災造成之影響相當大。 相反地，本研究標的大多利用不可燃性建材來興建，如鋼鐵或混凝土，故火災之影響性相對較小。 關鍵字: 非比例再保險、風險基礎計價、營造綜合保險 / The major contribution of this research is to develop the exposure curves suitable for the Taiwan Contractor’s All Risks (CAR) Insurance (Material Damage Cover). The exposure curves generated in Salzmann (1963) and Ludwig (1998) were originated from the loss experience in the United States. Considering the different types of policies, different types of risks, and different types of perils, the applicability of those curves in Taiwan market is discussable. This study reviews the scope of coverage, insuring clause and exclusions of the Taiwan Contractor’s All Risks Insurance. According to the loss records between 1996 and 2000, it’s understood that the result of the Contractor’s All Risks Insurance is highly influenced by the natural catastrophic perils, such as earthquake, typhoon and heavy rains. The reinsurance placement can be categorized into proportional and non-proportional reinsurance or called excess of loss reinsurance. Exposure rating is one of the common pricing methods for the excess of loss reinsurance. Compared with those two previous researches done by Salzmann (1963) and Ludwig (1998), the outcome of this analysis shows an unbalanced loss distribution which leans to the lower layers that is mainly because of the following reasons: - (1) Low PML percentage of analyzed risks: The PML represents the Probable Maximum Loss subject to a certain type of peril. Taking a road construction project as an example, the PML of a road construction project is less than 30% of the total sum insured. Usually, the length of a road construction project is tens of kilometers or even much longer. In consideration of its linear shape, it’s very unlikely to have a loss exceeding 30% of its total sum insured. Therefore there was very few or nil loss data above the 30% of the total sum insured that’s the reason why the loss distribution is unbalanced and leans to the lower layers. (2) Long Construction Period of a CAR Project: A character of a CAR project is having a multiple-year policy period because the construction work usually takes more than one year to be completed. Therefore the possibility to have a total loss case, loss amount equal to the total sum insured, is much less than a property risk with a fire scenario. (3) Types of Perils Analyzed: Salzmann (1963) carried out her research by analyzing the peril of fire covered under the homeowners’ policies. As we know, most of the houses in the United States are the wooden structures, which are combustible. Oppositely, the risks in this research are mostly constructed by using the non-combustible materials, such as steel or reinforced concrete. Keywords: excess of loss, non-proportional reinsurance, exposure rating, and contractor’s all risks insurance.

Different capital regulatory requirements in the bank and insurer markets lead to finding and using of new more complex financial tools linked with capital release and subsequent optimization of the investment objectives, but they are also linked with promises and risk transfers that could cause a collapse or a systemic risk of the financial markets, as evidence by the recent financial crisis. The aim of my work is to examine the behavior of credit default swap spreads on the securitization and reinsurance markets, followed by analyzing arbitrage conditions between securitization and reinsurance markets by cointegration analysis. The thesis focuses on Italy because it is one of four main European players in the securitization market and it has highly developed bank and insurer markets. Moreover, it still faces to consequences of the recent financial crisis that is indicator of strong possible bases for above mentioned complex financial instruments. On the dataset of Top 8 Italian banks and insurer companies in the period 2006 - 2012 I showed by cointegration analysis a presence of just one cointegration relationship between securitization and reinsurance market, therefore I rejected possibility of arbitrage between these markets. But on the other hand, they converge to long term equilibrium slowly...

Submitted by Valter Deperon (vdeperon@gmail.com) on 2018-04-26T00:45:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Valter Deperon_Dissertacao Abril2018_versaofinal250418.pdf: 457197 bytes, checksum: 9d22b722941ef7a64a699e95eb5bc378 (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Valter, boa tarde! Tivemos de rejeitar a Tese novamente, pois a data da aprovação está preenchida, deve estar em branco. e também deve conter o "Campo de Conhecimento" (este deve esta preenchido) acima da Data da Aprovação. Por gentileza, alterar e submeter novamente. Obrigada. 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No. of bitstreams: 1 Valter Deperon_Dissertacao Abril2018_versaofinal260418.pdf: 457236 bytes, checksum: 1c91df12538fe6bdb4de139789c59112 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-03-28 / Após a abertura do mercado de resseguros pela Lei Complementar nº 126/2007, três categorias de resseguradores foram criadas no Brasil: local, admitido e eventual. Os dois últimos formados por companhias estrangeiras que se instalaram no Brasil. Diante disso, houve muita incerteza a respeito do tratamento tributário que deveria ser aplicado sobre as transações de resseguros internacionais que, resumidamente, são: prêmios de resseguros, comissões de resseguros e sinistros pagos. O mercado se autorregulou e passou a praticar e a interpretar as regras fiscais, conforme a legislação securitária e tributária então vigente. Em 2017, a Receita Federal publicou a Solução de Consulta Cosit nº 62 que basicamente reafirmou o tratamento tributário que o mercado estava praticando para as categorias local e eventual, porém inovou ao equiparar o ressegurador admitido ao local, para fins fiscais. A razão da equiparação deu-se em função da exigência regulatória da Superintendência de Seguros Privados (SUSEP) de que o ressegurador admitido deva constituir um escritório de representação no Brasil, conferindo poderes a um procurador para aceitar e vincular a empresa estrangeira perante o mercado brasileiro. Com isso, concluiu-se que tal atividade equivaleria à do ressegurador local. O efeito prático de tal conclusão é um tratamento tributário semelhante ao conceito de Estabelecimento Permanente (EP), e a aplicação de regras tributárias locais ao admitido implica em um aumento significativo da carga tributária e das exigências e custos contábeis, financeiros e operacionais ao ressegurador admitido, o que inviabilizaria o mercado de seguros e resseguros, diante da potencial falta de cobertura para os riscos administrados no Brasil. A determinação de tratamento tributário equiparado a ressegurador local à empresa estrangeira não pode ser realizada por presunções formais legais, mas necessitaria de um exame concreto e fático de que, materialmente, as decisões de assunção de risco, subscrição e pagamento de indenizações está sendo feita pelo escritório de representação no Brasil, e não apenas em virtude de documentos formais. As atividades do escritório de representação não se confundem com as do ressegurado admitido estrangeiro por ele representado, existindo total independência e autonomia societária, contábil, operacional e fiscal. Embora tenha poder para assinatura de contratos, se tais poderes não são exercidos, o risco de EP é mitigado. A clara demonstração de ausência de execução de poder decisório e assinatura de contratos, bem como a revisão total dos processos internos, com a definição clara das atividades que são desempenhadas pelo escritório de representação é elemento de prova fundamental para afastar as potenciais autuações e discussões administrativas e judiciais. / After the opening of the reinsurance market under Complementary Law 126/2007, three categories of reinsurers were created in Brazil: local, admitted and occasional. The last two were formed by foreign companies that expanded into Brazil. As such, there was a lot of uncertainty regarding the tax treatment that should be applied to international reinsurance transactions, as follows: reinsurance premiums, reinsurance commissions and claims (indemnities) paid. The market was then self-regulated and began to apply and interpret the tax rules, in accordance with the regulatory insurance and tax laws applicable at that time. In 2017, the Federal Tax Authorities (RFB) issued the Cosit Advance Tax Ruling (ATR) nº 62, which basically confirmed the tax treatment that the market was practicing for the local and the occasional categories, but innovated by equating the admitted category to the local reinsurers for tax purposes. The reason for such an equation was based on SUSEP's regulatory requirement for admitted reinsurers to establish a representation office in Brazil, and to grant acceptance and binding powers to a local attorney-in-fact. As a result, it was understood that such activity would be equal to the local reinsurer business. The practical outcome of this conclusion is to consider the foreign entity with a Permanent Establishment (PE) tax treatment, therefore applying local tax rules to them, which imply in a substantial increase in the tax burden, as well as a stricter and more costly accounting, financial and operational framework. This ultimately shall result the insurance and reinsurance market to be considered unfeasible in Brazil, and might result in a potential lack of coverage for Brazilian insurance risks. The determination of tax treatment to the foreign company cannot be carried out simply by legal and formal presumptions; rather, it must require a concrete and factual examination of whether, in essence, the decision-making of risk acceptance, underwriting and claims payments are being effectively executed by the representation office in Brazil, and not merely by virtue of formal documents. The activities of the representation office must not be confused with those of the foreign admitted reinsurer, since there have full autonomy, and operational, corporate governance and tax independency in each entity. Although it has the power to sign contracts, if such powers are not executed, the risk of PE is mitigated. A clear demonstration of the absence of decision-making power of execution and signature of contracts and the overall review of internal processes, with clear definition of the activities that can be performed by the representative office is a fundamental evidence to rule out the potential tax assessments and administrative and judicial disputes.

This diploma thesis deals with a considerable innovation of modern finance, insurance securitization. For better understanding of this concept it is important to consider insurance securitization in a broader context of financial securitization, which is presented in the first chapter. In the second part of this work the factors which have led to the development of insurance securitization are mentioned. Then there is a short comparison of insurance securitization with financial securitization and description of various secured products with discussing their positive and negative aspects. Finally, the thesis is concluded with some thoughts regarding the near future of insurance securitization. The aim of this diploma thesis is to evaluate using of insurance securitization as an alternative way of transfer risk, analyze its weaknesses and propose possible solutions.

This dissertation is focused on an analysis of economic policies toward the private insurance industry in the Czech lands between 1938 and 1945 and a description of insurance policy confiscations by the Nazi authorities. It examines the division of insurance companies after the Munich Pact and the subsequent new spheres of influence in the insurance industry. It looks closely at the new conditions for the industry within the Protectorate of Bohemia and Moravia and its development from 1939 to 1945. The author describes different strategies through which Nazi authorities and German companies increased their control over protectorate insurance companies and how the confiscated assets were transferred to Germany. The process of Aryanization is also explained.

The present licentiate thesis analyses developments in Swedish marine insurance during the interwar period, including both direct marine insurance and marine reinsurance. This is done in order to provide insights on how companies of a highly internationalised and vulnerable line of insurance were affected by and responded to new risks during a period of far-reaching international financial and economic crises. Finally, the consequences of new risks and strategies are assessed. This thesis argues that during the interwar period Swedish maritime trade and Swedish marine insurance greatly depended on each other for marine insurance cover and marine insurance premium incomes. The business results in Swedish marine insurance partly depended on the development of Swedish trade. These business results were also vulnerable to currency risks. Swedish marine insurers faced no similar trade or currency risks during the two decades preceding World War I, and accordingly the returns on Swedish marine insurance were lower during the interwar period than during the last two pre-war decades. These factors probably bore their most severe consequences during the early 1920s when Swedish marine insurance on average induced losses to insurers. The remaining years of the period constituted a long-run recovery, and the Great Depression of the early 1930s caused no difficulties of the same order. This thesis also indicates that interwar Swedish marine insurers responded to new risks by increasing the level of cession to reinsurers. Another response was to increase the level of differentiation among insurance lines. This thesis describes the consequences of new risks and strategies in interwar Swedish marine insurance, focusing on the development of the Swedish marine insurance market structure and on the business results of Swedish marine insurers. Though this market shrunk and grew excessively, the relative importance of stock and mutual insurers showed only minor fluctuations. The importance of specialised marine reinsurance companies, however, fluctuated greatly. Also, cooperation between interwar marine insurers and the formation of insurance groups set new trends of concentration for the future. Finally, even though Swedish marine insurance during some years induced losses the Swedish marine insurers never experienced true losses on their total businesses.

The research on optimal reinsurance design dated back to the 1960’s. For nearly half a century, the quest for optimal reinsurance designs has remained a fascinating subject, drawing significant interests from both academicians and practitioners. Its fascination lies in its potential as an effective risk management tool for the insurers. There are many ways of formulating the optimal design of reinsurance, depending on the chosen objective and constraints. In this thesis, we address the problem of optimal reinsurance designs from an insurer’s perspective. For an insurer, an appropriate use of the reinsurance helps to reduce the adverse risk exposure and improve the overall viability of the underlying business. On the other hand, reinsurance incurs additional cost to the insurer in the form of reinsurance premium. This implies a classical risk and reward tradeoff faced by the insurer. The primary objective of the thesis is to develop theoretically sound and yet practical solution in the quest for optimal reinsurance designs. In order to achieve such an objective, this thesis is divided into two parts. In the first part, a number of reinsurance models are developed and their optimal reinsurance treaties are derived explicitly. This part focuses on the risk measure minimization reinsurance models and discusses the optimal reinsurance treaties by exploiting two of the most common risk measures known as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE). Some additional important economic factors such as the reinsurance premium budget, the insurer’s profitability are also considered. The second part proposes an innovative method in formulating the reinsurance models, which we refer as the empirical approach since it exploits explicitly the insurer’s empirical loss data. The empirical approach has the advantage that it is practical and intuitively appealing. This approach is motivated by the difficulty that the reinsurance models are often infinite dimensional optimization problems and hence the explicit solutions are achievable only in some special cases. The empirical approach effectively reformulates the optimal reinsurance problem into a finite dimensional optimization problem. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the second-order conic programming can be used to obtain the optimal solutions for a wide range of reinsurance models formulated by the empirical approach.

The research on optimal reinsurance design dated back to the 1960’s. For nearly half a century, the quest for optimal reinsurance designs has remained a fascinating subject, drawing significant interests from both academicians and practitioners. Its fascination lies in its potential as an effective risk management tool for the insurers. There are many ways of formulating the optimal design of reinsurance, depending on the chosen objective and constraints. In this thesis, we address the problem of optimal reinsurance designs from an insurer’s perspective. For an insurer, an appropriate use of the reinsurance helps to reduce the adverse risk exposure and improve the overall viability of the underlying business. On the other hand, reinsurance incurs additional cost to the insurer in the form of reinsurance premium. This implies a classical risk and reward tradeoff faced by the insurer. The primary objective of the thesis is to develop theoretically sound and yet practical solution in the quest for optimal reinsurance designs. In order to achieve such an objective, this thesis is divided into two parts. In the first part, a number of reinsurance models are developed and their optimal reinsurance treaties are derived explicitly. This part focuses on the risk measure minimization reinsurance models and discusses the optimal reinsurance treaties by exploiting two of the most common risk measures known as the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the Conditional Tail Expectation (CTE). Some additional important economic factors such as the reinsurance premium budget, the insurer’s profitability are also considered. The second part proposes an innovative method in formulating the reinsurance models, which we refer as the empirical approach since it exploits explicitly the insurer’s empirical loss data. The empirical approach has the advantage that it is practical and intuitively appealing. This approach is motivated by the difficulty that the reinsurance models are often infinite dimensional optimization problems and hence the explicit solutions are achievable only in some special cases. The empirical approach effectively reformulates the optimal reinsurance problem into a finite dimensional optimization problem. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the second-order conic programming can be used to obtain the optimal solutions for a wide range of reinsurance models formulated by the empirical approach.

再保險交易為國內產物保險業者經營業務及風險管理上不可或缺之工具，近年衍生融通資金及改善財務結構之財務面功能，並傳出國際知名保險業者不當運用之情事，而引起各國保險監理機關之重視，開始建立再保險完整之監理制度及詳細規範。就我國產險業而言，現行再保險交易分出業務之會計處理，可透過再保費支出、再保佣金收入、再保攤回賠款及提存未滿期保費準備減少數等會計科目，產生盈餘釋放數，進而操控公司財務報表。本研究擬探討我國產險公司是否會利用承作再保險交易從事盈餘管理。 本研究分別採用縱橫資料迴歸及分量迴歸兩種模型，以1994-2008年之國內12家產險公司為樣本，探討再保險交易量及再保險交易盈餘釋放數與盈餘管理動機之關聯。實證結果顯示我國產險公司，就資本市場動機而言，當期盈餘數愈低者，會避免虧損而從事愈多再保險交易或有愈高之盈餘釋放數，若當期盈餘低於前期愈多者，則有愈高之盈餘釋放數；就稅負動機而言，若為高稅負成本者，將從事較少再保險交易或有較低之盈餘釋放數；惟就監理動機而言，發現產險公司保單持有人盈餘與實收資本之45%的差距愈小者，反而從事愈少之再保險交易。 / Reinsurance is an indispensable tool for property-casualty insurers’ business operating and risk management. In recent years, reinsurance derived some financial functions such capital finance and financial structure improvement. Some of the world famous insurers had been found improper use of financial reinsurance, which caused regulators of various countries try to establish more supervisory systems and detailed standards to monitor such behavior. The present accounting procedures of reinsurance ceded-out business might release surplus through reinsurance premiums ceded, reinsurance commission earned, claims recovered from reinsures, and the decrease of unearned premium reserves, which release might give insurers to manipulate the financial reporting. Therefore, this research attempts to examine association between reinsurance arrangements and earnings management on Taiwan’s property-casualty insurers. This research applies panel data model and quantile regression model to test the reinsurance transactions and the surplus release associated with earnings management motivation. The data draw from12 property-casualty Taiwan’s insurers from 1994 to 2008. For capital market motivations, the evidence indicates that property-casualty insurers manage more reinsurance transactions or the higher surplus release to avoid losses, and manage the higher surplus release to avoid earnings decreases. For tax burden motivations, the result shows that the higher tax burden insurers have, the fewer insurers manage reinsurance transactions and the lower surplus release. However, for regulatory motivations, the empirical results indicate that the less difference between policyholders’ surplus and 45% of total capital has, the fewer reinsurance transactions are being managed.