本研究係以加入金融控股公司之四家產險公司為研究對象，並以13項經營績效指標分析，探討此四家產險公司於加入金控前後，個別公司經營績效之差異性，藉以比較分析並了解產險公司加入金控後，對其經營績效是否有所助益。此外，在排除絕對數指標(本業收益及投資收益)，且合併市佔率與業界排名此二項指標，以10項經營績效指標來衡量金控旗下四家產險公司彼此之經營績效，以了解不同體系下之產險公司所產生綜效之差異性。 經過實證結果發現：(1)此四家產險公司於加入金控前後，個別公司經營績效之差異性並不明顯，僅國泰金控旗下國泰世紀產險之經營績效有較顯著改善，餘均無較大之差異性，甚或有績效下滑之態勢，顯示金控綜效於旗下產險公司表現並不明顯。(2)金控旗下四家產險公司彼此間之經營績效仍以國泰金控旗下國泰世紀產險表現最好，華南金控旗下華南產險表現居次，富邦金控旗下富邦產險排名第三，兆豐金控旗下兆豐產險則敬陪末座。從實證結果得知，國泰金控旗下國泰世紀產險不論在加入金控前後之效益顯現或與其他三家公司績效比較，都較為良好且穩定。 / The study analyzes thirteen operating efficiency indices of four property insurance companies of financial holding corporations and compares the operating efficiency before and after they join the financial holdings groups. Besides, I have taken ten operating efficiency indices into account, including consolidated market share and industry rankings, excluding absolute indices such as core earnings and investment profits, to measure the operating performance of these four companies to compare the difference of synergies among them. The empirical study shows that: 1) Only Cathay Century Insurance Company of Cathay Financial Holding Group has improved operating performance but the others do not have significant difference with regard to it; some even have worse operating performance than that before they joined the financial holdings companies and it implies low synergy is evident for property insurance companies of financial holdings companies. 2) The operating performance rankings of these four companies are as followed: Cathay Century Insurance Company of Cathay Financial Holdings, South China Insurance Company of Hua Nan Financial Holdings, Fubon Insurance Company of Fubon Financial Holdings, Chung Kuo Insurance Company of Mega Financial Holdings. The empirical study tells us that Cathay Century Insurance Company has better operating performance before and after joining financial holding companies.

本文主要是探討風險基礎資本額制度施行後對產險公司資本與風險的影響，以作為台灣未來施行風險基礎資本額的參考。我們所使用的方法是二階段最小平方法來分析資本、風險與風險基礎資本額之關係，結果發現，當RBC ratio較低的產險公司會增加資本比率、減少其風險行為，反之，RBC ratio較高的產險公司其行為會受到公司規模大小之影響，若是RBC ratio高的大型保險公司，會減少資本、增加風險，避免過多資本管理沒有效益;小型保險公司則是會增加資本、減少風險，此即可能是為了增加承保能量以減少未來可能發生之巨災所造成的損害。 / This paper examines the simultaneous impact of the RBC regulation on property-liability insurers’ capital ratios and risk including asset risk and product risk. We use a two stage least squares (2SLS) model to analyze the relationship between property-liability insurers’ capitals, risk and RBC ratios. The results suggest that insurers with low RBC ratios increase their capital ratios and decrease their risks, while insurers with high RBC ratios have different risk-taking behavior. This is affected by the insurers’ sizes. Small insurers with high RBC ratios increase capital and decrease risk to enlarge capacity and to prevent any catastrophe happening in the future. Large insurers with high RBC ratios decrease capital and increase risk to avoid management inefficiency.

保險業的清償能力一直是保險監理機關關心的重點，保險公司一旦失卻清償能力，所影響的將不只是該公司，還有龐大的保戶及社會大眾。自西元1988年開始，即有許多學者提出早期預警模型，針對保險公司的清償能力作預測，希望可以及早發覺問題保險公司，直到西元1994年，開始有學者以類神經網路作為預測工具，結果發現，其預測準確度較過去多篇文獻所認為的邏輯斯迴歸來的精確。 　　本論文的目的在利用新的類神經網路建構保險公司失卻清償能力的早期預警系統，並將其結果與邏輯斯迴歸之結果作比較，樣本為美國產險公司，實證結果顯示，若以類神經網路作為預測的工具，在預測破產公司方面，其結果較邏輯斯迴歸好；但若是在預測健全公司方面，則為邏輯斯迴歸較好。另外，就整體的預測準確度而言，則以類神經網路的預測結果較好。 / The solvency of insurance industry plays an important role in society and has been the focus of insurance regulation. The insurer insolvency will affect not only company itself, but also the policyholders and society. The better method up to 1994 to identify insurer insolvencies in most prior researches is logistic regression. Some scholars use neural networks to predict insurer insolvencies. The result showed that neural network performed better than logistic regression model. 　　The purpose of this paper aims to construct an early warning system for property and casualty insurer insolvencies prediction and to compare the predictive ability of neural network and logistic regression model. The results show that neural network performs better than logistic regression model in classifying insolvent insurers. On contrast, logistic regression model performs better in classifying solvent insurers. Overall, the neural network performs better than its counterpart based on all sample firms.

1980年代世界各國的金融保險業興起一股自由化的風潮，而我國也在1986 年給予美商保險公司國民待遇，1992開放國人設立保險公司，1994年開放所有外商保險公司來台設立分公司，自此申請設立保險公司完全自由化。 本研究採用資料包絡分析法計算效率值，並使用「大邊界」的觀念建構出單一效率邊界，探討我國產險公司在開放保險市場前後的效率變動情形。本研究的主要結果如下：1.根據單變量無母數統計分析，整體產險業與開放前本國舊產險公司，其純技術效率值在開放後均大於開放前且達到顯著水準；其規模效率值在開放後則小於開放前且達到顯著性，表示市場的開放對我國產險業確實有影響。2.新產險公司的整體技術效率值、純技術效率值與規模效率值均顯著高於舊產險公司，顯示這些新進入的外商產險公司其全球化的經驗較我國舊產險公司更成熟。3.在控制相關公司特性後，Tobit迴歸分析的結果發現，市場開放與產險業之經營效率呈現負向關係，顯示單純的市場開放並無法增加產險業者之經營效率。本研究結果說明在市場開放後，產險業者欲增加經營效率，必須在產品創新，通路流暢下功夫才能增加經營效率。 / Since 1980s, all over the world has been emerging a trend of deregulation and liberalization of financial insurance industry. At the same time, Taiwan also started to open the property-liability insurance market gradually. First, in 1986, Taiwan treated the US insurers as the local company; then, in 1992, opening the market for the new local insurers, and in 1994, Taiwan fully deregulated the property-liability insurance industry. This research applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure efficiency scores, and applied Grand Frontier to measure the trend of efficiency change before and after deregulation. The major findings of this research are as follows：(1) base on the univariate statistic analysis, the overall property-liability insurance industry and the incumbent insurers reveal a higher pure technology efficiency score in the post-deregulation than that of before-deregulation; however, the scale efficiency score was denoted the opposite situation in post and before deregulation ear, and both of the statistical results are significant. The findings support deregulation has some effect on the efficiency of property-liability insurance industry. (2) The new entries have a higher efficiency score in both overall technology efficiency and pure technology than the incumbents; the result implies that those foreign property-liability insurers with their global experience do perform better efficient management than those of local incumbents. (3) After controlling the characteristics of the insurers and some other variables, Tobit regression analysis illustrated a negative relationship between deregulation and efficiencies. The finding implies that deregulation itself won’t increase the efficiency of the industry. Therefore, the implication of this research suggests that the insurers should compete with others in product innovations and distribution facilitations in order to increase the efficiencies.

在產物保險的經營里有一項相當大的負債，稱之為賠款準備金(Loss Reserve)，該項 準備金之估提系由于產險公司于處理賠案時，限于技術上、時間上或手續上的關系， 使得一些賠案在會計年度終了時往往尚未結案，為了能真正反映產險公司的財務結構 及經營實況，不使應歸屬于本年度之賠款，成為以后年度的負擔，致影響其財務上的 健全性，而須確實提存之。 然陪款準備金之估列除涉及及精算上之技術層面外，尚受一些經濟上之外生變數如利 率、通貨膨脹率、匯率的影響，以及保險公司管理當局的經常態度而定。對于保險公 司的經營深表關心者除保險監理機關外，尚有保險公司的股東、稅務機關等，但因彼 此的職責及關切的利益不同，所以期望保險公司經營結果的態度亦就互異，而賠款準 備金因本身即具有估計的性質，自然就成為保險公司管理當局用來調節盈余的工具。 為此；本文即要選定一些外生變數及與產險業賠款準備提存有關的因素，以本國產險 業七十年度至七十七年度的財政部年度檢查報告作為資料分析的來源，利用多變量分 析方法中之回歸分析以檢定該等變數與賠款準備誤差形成間之關系，供保險監理機關 及產險業者參考。 研究結果發現，在GLM 模型中，除匯率一項因素外，其餘變數在90% 信賴區間下，均 具顯著水準。而在虛擬變數模型下的檢定結果則為在90% 信賴區間下，匯率及肯尼比 率不具顯著性，另利率因素接近顯著水準。但經F 檢定發現各產險公司對賠款準備提 存行為無顯著性的差別存在。最后藉著利用逐步回歸的方法，建立本研究之最佳回歸 模式。

本文運用模擬的方法，產生產險業所面臨的損失分佈、投資資產的變動，欲得到最好的資產配置比例，並考慮重新平衡的效果，探討何種方法為產險業最好的資金運用策略。在模擬了1,000次，產生未來23年的年末資產負債表後，我們得到產險公司應如何配置其資金於：現金、股票、1-15年期債券及房地產的比例，加入重新平衡的概念，運用目標方程式的建立，最後得到一個最好的資金配置及平衡策略。 / We applied simulation techniques to imitate some situations that insurance companies have handled, including loss development, asset value variations, and dynamic programming asset allocation. The asset allocation ratios and the timing of rebalancing the assets affected our objective outcomes. After simulating 23 years for 1,000 times, we find how insurance company allocates their capital in four accounts: cash, stock, fifteen kinds of maturity bonds, and real estate. We finally pointed out strategy resulted in the best outcome by comparing between single period optimal asset allocating ratios and rebalanced asset allocation ratio outcomes.

中國大陸於1986年申請重新加入WTO，經過15年的長期努力及多方談判，並且在各種產業上做出重大讓步之後，於12月11日正式成為第143個正式的會員國。加入WTO之後，在大陸金融市場規模龐大且成長迅速的吸引之下，市場的開放必然會吸引大量的國際保險業者進入大陸。另外，與一般開發中國家的情況相似，大陸的金融產業相對於其他產業而言是發展較為遲緩的產業，金融機構進駐後造成的衝擊必然十分嚴重，因此大陸當局應儘早加以準備與因應。 本研究採用資料包絡分析法進行效率值之計算，並使用大邊界法建構出單一效率邊界，探討大陸產險業在加入WTO前後的效率變動情形。本研究的結果如下:1.根據單變量無母數統計分析，整體產險業在加入WTO前後三個效率值雖呈正向關係但不顯著，表示階段性的開放是較理想的措施。2.非中資公司的整體技術效率值、純技術效率值與規模效率值均高於中資公司，顯示非中資公司其全球化的經驗較中資公司更好、更成熟。 / Mainland China reapplied in 1986 to join WTO, passed through 15 years long-term endeavor and negotiates in every way, and made the significant concessions after each industry, on December 11, 2001 officially became the 143rd official member nation. After joining the WTO, the mainland's financial market scale and rapid growth attract, opening of the market will attract a large number of international insurance industry to the mainland. Furthermore, with most developing countries in similar circumstances, the mainland's financial industry compared to other industries in terms of development is relatively slow industries, financial institutions stationed after the impact is inevitable, therefore, the mainland authorities should be prepared as early as possible and to respond. This research applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to measure efficiency scores, and applied Grand Frontier to measure the trend of the efficiency change before and after joining WTO. The results of this study are as follows: 1. Based on the univariate statistical analysis, overall in the property insurance industry after joining the WTO three efficiency values have shown a positive relationship but not significant, said the gradual opening is a relatively ideal measures. 2. Non-Chinese company's overall technical efficiency, pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency were higher than the value of Chinese-funded companies that show non-Chinese-funded companies in their global experience are better and more mature than those Chinese-funded companies.

保險公司之經營效率如何，影響保險公司經營效率之因素為何，是國內外保險學者長期以來研究的議題。本研究以我國產險業為對象進行效率之研究，分別以財務中介法與附加價值法選取投入產出變數，以資料包絡分析法衡量產險公司之經營效率，並以Tobit迴歸分析公司型態、再保險比率、資產規模與產品集中度四項因素對效率值之影響，樣本期間自1988年至2004年，共17年。 效率值之逐年變動狀況顯示本國公司在財務中介法的效率值長期不如外商公司，且有逐年降低的趨勢；附加價值法則是外商公司逐漸追上本國公司。 Tobit迴歸分析顯示再保險之使用弊多於利，產險公司應加強核保，在承保能量範圍內盡量降低再保險之使用。產險公司應擴大規模，同時亦應積極開拓保險市場、加強投資，提高投資報酬率與資產報酬率。最後，產險公司應思考本身的優勢，集中經營某幾項險種，累積相關知識及經驗，以增進效率。

再保險交易為國內產物保險業者經營業務及風險管理上不可或缺之工具，近年衍生融通資金及改善財務結構之財務面功能，並傳出國際知名保險業者不當運用之情事，而引起各國保險監理機關之重視，開始建立再保險完整之監理制度及詳細規範。就我國產險業而言，現行再保險交易分出業務之會計處理，可透過再保費支出、再保佣金收入、再保攤回賠款及提存未滿期保費準備減少數等會計科目，產生盈餘釋放數，進而操控公司財務報表。本研究擬探討我國產險公司是否會利用承作再保險交易從事盈餘管理。 本研究分別採用縱橫資料迴歸及分量迴歸兩種模型，以1994-2008年之國內12家產險公司為樣本，探討再保險交易量及再保險交易盈餘釋放數與盈餘管理動機之關聯。實證結果顯示我國產險公司，就資本市場動機而言，當期盈餘數愈低者，會避免虧損而從事愈多再保險交易或有愈高之盈餘釋放數，若當期盈餘低於前期愈多者，則有愈高之盈餘釋放數；就稅負動機而言，若為高稅負成本者，將從事較少再保險交易或有較低之盈餘釋放數；惟就監理動機而言，發現產險公司保單持有人盈餘與實收資本之45%的差距愈小者，反而從事愈少之再保險交易。 / Reinsurance is an indispensable tool for property-casualty insurers’ business operating and risk management. In recent years, reinsurance derived some financial functions such capital finance and financial structure improvement. Some of the world famous insurers had been found improper use of financial reinsurance, which caused regulators of various countries try to establish more supervisory systems and detailed standards to monitor such behavior. The present accounting procedures of reinsurance ceded-out business might release surplus through reinsurance premiums ceded, reinsurance commission earned, claims recovered from reinsures, and the decrease of unearned premium reserves, which release might give insurers to manipulate the financial reporting. Therefore, this research attempts to examine association between reinsurance arrangements and earnings management on Taiwan’s property-casualty insurers. This research applies panel data model and quantile regression model to test the reinsurance transactions and the surplus release associated with earnings management motivation. The data draw from12 property-casualty Taiwan’s insurers from 1994 to 2008. For capital market motivations, the evidence indicates that property-casualty insurers manage more reinsurance transactions or the higher surplus release to avoid losses, and manage the higher surplus release to avoid earnings decreases. For tax burden motivations, the result shows that the higher tax burden insurers have, the fewer insurers manage reinsurance transactions and the lower surplus release. However, for regulatory motivations, the empirical results indicate that the less difference between policyholders’ surplus and 45% of total capital has, the fewer reinsurance transactions are being managed.

本文使用政大資管系及風管系所共同開發的動態財務分析模型(dynamic financial analysis model)，並測試該模型是否能準確區別出健全的產險公司及喪失清償能力的產險公司。我們進一步地使用羅吉斯迴歸模型分析該模型在預測產險公司清償能力的準確性。 從迴歸模型實證結果中指出在10%顯著水準下所有變數皆不顯著。此結果顯示我們的實證測試無法提供強烈的佐證以支持”該動態財務分析模型能夠準確地預測保險人清償能力”的說法。 根據實證結果，我們建議往後的研究可以使用不同年度的資料，藉由大量的樣本以增加統計分析的準確度，同時改善該動態財務分析模型以符合保險人擁有多種再保安排的實際狀況。在實證測試中，我們發現該模型仍然存在一些錯誤。假使該動態財務分析模型能有效率地消除這些錯誤，我們期待修正後的動態財務分析模型在預測產險公司的清償能力上有更好表現。 / This paper set out to empirically test whether the dynamic financial analysis model (DFA), developed in a joint project of Department of Management Information Systems and Risk Management and Insurance, National Chengchi University, could accurately classify both solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers. We used a logistic regression model to analyze the solvency prediction accuracy of the DFA model. The empirical results indicated that none of the variables were significant at the 10% level and did not offer strong supporting evidence that the DFA model could accurately predict the solvency of insurers. Based on this, we suggest that further research should perhaps use data over different years to increase the accuracy of the statistical analysis, by using larger samples; this may improve the DFA model by coordinating actual situations with various reinsurance arrangements. In the empirical tests, we found that the DFA model still has some bugs. If these bugs can be efficiently deleted, we expect a revised DFA model to perform well in predicting the solvency of property-liability insurers.