The aim of the diploma thesis is to analyze the production enterprise under the risk conditions and to identify the risk factors which have the influence on agricultural business. The theoretical part gives a definition of risk, risk classification and risk management with different methods of risk treatment. The special part is focused on agricultural risk management, its objectives and principles. The analytic part of the thesis contains characteristics of the analyzed enterprise. Special attention is paid to the calculation formula in plant and livestock production and the break even analysis. The risk analysis is performed in the following order: threat identification and risk-ranking matrix determination according to probability of occurrence and severity of consequences. Based on a strategy are identified ways to reduce risk and determined the risk mitigation. Improvements for the enterprise are suggested on the basis of the results.

В условиях введенных обоюдных санкций со стороны России и стран ЕС, важная роль отводится системе мероприятий, направленных на реализацию стратегии импортозамещения на российском агропродовольственном рынке. Таким образом, в условии жестких экономических реалий возрастает роль агропромышленного комплекса России в обеспечении продовольственной безопасности страны. При этом важно отметить, что процесс импортозамещения требует от российских производителей восполнение привычных объемов импортного сырья и продовольствия, что в условиях низкого уровня материально-технического обеспечения сделать крайне тяжело. В связи с этим возрастает роль государства в реализации политики импортозамещения. При этом программы импортозамещения должны работать на создание в России массового слоя производственных компаний, способных быть конкурентными не только внутри страны, но и на международных рынках. В современных условиях крайне важной является разработка обоснованной теории и методологических основ импортозамещения, выявление его особенностей на этапе перехода агросистем к еще более «свободному» рынку, обосновании комплекса рекомендаций по развитию и внедрению процесса импортозамещения в единый регулируемый внешнеторговый механизм. В работе представлены государственные программы и тенденции развития процесса импортозамещения в некоторых странах СНГ (Республики Беларусь, Казахстан) и дальнего зарубежья (Китай, новые индустриальные страны Азии и Латинской Америки). Целью данной работы является внедрение на рынок отечественной конкурентоспособной продукции, обеспечивающей импортозамещения. / Under the imposed mutual sanctions from Russia and the EU countries, an important role is assigned to the system of measures aimed at implementing the strategy of import substitution in the Russian agro-food market. Thus, in the condition of tough economic realities, the role of Russia's agro-industrial complex in ensuring the country's food security is growing. At the same time, it is important to note that the process of import substitution requires Russian producers to replenish the usual volumes of imported raw materials and foodstuffs, which is extremely difficult in conditions of a low level of material and technical support. In this regard, the role of the state in the implementation of importsubstitution. At the same time, import substitution programs should work to create a mass layer of production companies in Russia that can be competitive not only within the country, but also in international markets. In modern conditions, it is extremely important to develop a sound theory and methodological foundations of import substitution, to identify its features at the stage of transition of agricultural systems to an even more "free" market, to justify a set of recommendations for the development and implementation of the import substitution process in a single regulated foreign trade mechanism. The paper presents state programs and trends in the development of import substitution in some CIS countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan) and abroad (China, new industrial countries of Asia and Latin America). The purpose of this work is the introduction of domestic competitive products to the market, providing import substitution.

Investments in space systems are substantial, indivisible, and irreversible, characteristics that make them high-risk, especially when coupled with an uncertain demand environment. Traditional approaches to system design and acquisition, derived from a performance- or cost-centric mindset, incorporate little information about the spacecraft in relation to its environment and its value to its stakeholders. These traditional approaches, while appropriate in stable environments, are ill-suited for the current, distinctly uncertain and rapidly changing technical, and economic conditions; as such, they have to be revisited and adapted to the present context. This thesis proposes that in uncertain environments, decision-making with respect to space system design and acquisition should be value-based, or at a minimum value-informed. This research advances the value-centric paradigm by providing the theoretical basis, foundational frameworks, and supporting analytical tools for value assessment of priced and unpriced space systems. For priced systems, stochastic models of the market environment and financial models of stakeholder preferences are developed and integrated with a spacecraft-sizing tool to assess the system's net present value. The analytical framework is applied to a case study of a communications satellite, with market, financial, and technical data obtained from the satellite operator, Intelsat. The case study investigates the implications of the value-centric versus the cost-centric design and acquisition choices. Results identify the ways in which value-optimal spacecraft design choices are contingent on both technical and market conditions, and that larger spacecraft for example, which reap economies of scale benefits, as reflected by their decreasing cost-per-transponder, are not always the best (most valuable) choices. Market conditions and technical constraints for which convergence occurs between design choices under a cost-centric and a value-centric approach are identified and discussed. In addition, an innovative approach for characterizing value uncertainty through partial moments, a technique used in finance, is adapted to an engineering context and applied to priced space systems. Partial moments disaggregate uncertainty into upside potential and downside risk, and as such, they provide the decision-maker with additional insights for value-uncertainty management in design and acquisition. For unpriced space systems, this research first posits that their value derives from, and can be assessed through, the value of information they provide. To this effect, a Bayesian framework is created to assess system value in which the system is viewed as an information provider and the stakeholder an information recipient. Information has value to stakeholders as it changes their rational beliefs enabling them to yield higher expected pay-offs. Based on this marginal increase in expected pay-offs, a new metric, Value-of-Design (VoD), is introduced to quantify the unpriced system's value. The Bayesian framework is applied to the case of an Earth Science satellite that provides hurricane information to oil rig operators using nested Monte Carlo modeling and simulation. Probability models of stakeholders' beliefs, and economic models of pay-offs are developed and integrated with a spacecraft payload generation tool. The case study investigates the information value generated by each payload, with results pointing to clusters of payload instruments that yielded higher information value, and minimum information thresholds below which it is difficult to justify the acquisition of the system. In addition, an analytical decision tool, probabilistic Pareto fronts, is developed in the Cost-VoD trade space to provide the decision-maker with additional insights into the coupling of a system's probable value generation and its associated cost risk.

<p>Forest management involves numerous stochastic elements. To sustainably manage forest resources, it is crucial to acknowledge these sources as uncertainty or risk, and incorporate them in adaptive decision-making. Here, I developed several stochastic programming models in the form of passive or active adaptive management for natural mixed-species hardwood forests in Indiana. I demonstrated how to use these tools to deal with time-invariant and time-variant natural disturbances in optimal planning of harvests.</p> <p> Markov decision process (MDP) models were first constructed based upon stochastic simulations of an empirical forest growth model for the forest type of interest. Then, they were optimized to seek the optimal or near-optimal harvesting decisions while considering risk and uncertainty in natural disturbances. In particular, a classic expected-criterion infinite-horizon MDP model was first used as a passive adaptive management tool to determine the optimal action for a specific forest state when the probabilities of forest transition remained constant over time. Next, a two-stage non-stationary MDP model combined with a rolling-horizon heuristic was developed, which allowed information update and then adjustments of decisions accordingly. It was used to determine active adaptive harvesting decisions for a three-decade planning horizon during which natural disturbance probabilities may be altered by climate change.</p> <p> The empirical results can be used to make some useful quantitative management recommendations, and shed light on the impacts of decision-making on the forests and timber yield when some stochastic elements in forest management changed. In general, the increase in the likelihood of damages by natural disturbance to forests would cause more aggressive decisions if timber production was the management objective. When windthrow did not pose a threat to mixed hardwood forests, the average optimal yield of sawtimber was estimated to be 1,376 ft³/ac/acre, while the residual basal area was 88 ft²/ac. Assuming a 10 percent per decade probability of windthrow that would reduce the stand basal area considerably, the optimal sawtimber yield per decade would decline by 17%, but the residual basal area would be lowered only by 5%. Assuming that the frequency of windthrow increased in the magnitude of 5% every decade under climate change, the average sawtimber yield would be reduced by 31%, with an average residual basal area slightly around 76 ft²/ac. For validation purpose, I compared the total sawtimber yield in three decades obtained from the heuristic approach to that of a three-decade MDP model making <i>ex post</i> decisions. The heuristic approach was proved to provide a satisfactory result which was only about 18% lower than the actual optimum.</p> These findings highlight the need for landowners, both private and public, to monitor forests frequently and use flexible planning approaches in order to anticipate for climate change impacts. They also suggest that climate change may considerably lower sawtimber yield, causing a concerning decline in the timber supply in Indiana. Future improvements of the approaches used here are recommended, including addressing the changing stumpage market condition and developing a more flexible rolling-horizon heuristic approach.

Submitted by Julia de Lamare (ju_delamare@hotmail.com) on 2016-03-10T14:23:56Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Julia de Lamare - versão final 10.03.2016.pdf: 1781385 bytes, checksum: 5e0a14bc6abef953bdd67e2359263eaf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by BRUNA BARROS (bruna.barros@fgv.br) on 2016-03-16T13:15:30Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Julia de Lamare - versão final 10.03.2016.pdf: 1781385 bytes, checksum: 5e0a14bc6abef953bdd67e2359263eaf (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2016-03-18T13:37:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Julia de Lamare - versão final 10.03.2016.pdf: 1781385 bytes, checksum: 5e0a14bc6abef953bdd67e2359263eaf (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-18T13:37:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Julia de Lamare - versão final 10.03.2016.pdf: 1781385 bytes, checksum: 5e0a14bc6abef953bdd67e2359263eaf (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-02-15 / Environmental regulation lacks transparency. Agencies responsible for environmental protection, in most of the cases, only publish the final versions of the regulatory measures adopted, without further details on supporting, technical justifications, alternatives considered and possible contributions from social participation, among other issues. As a consequence, the environmental management faces accountability issues. To overcome this scenario, the regulatory impact analysis is presented as an instrument able to add clarity, objectivity and efficiency to environmental decision making. The incorporation of the tool, however, should be performed with particular caution, in view of three major peculiarities of Environmental Law. Firstly, the sector not only handles with risk, but also with uncertainty, in which due to the absence of information, it is impossible to make probability calculation about possible outcomes. Secondly, environmental regulation deals with non-tradable assets to which traditional cost-benefit analysis is not easily applicable. Finally, the environmental regulatory authority is shared by various agencies at all levels of government, increasing the odds of technical failures. / A regulação ambiental carece de maior transparência. Os órgãos de proteção do meio ambiente, em regra, apenas publicam as versões finais das medidas elaboradas, sem explicitar as justificativas técnicas que as embasaram, as alternativas consideradas e as possíveis contribuições decorrentes de participação social, entre outras questões. Em consequência, tem-se um cenário desfavorável à realização de controle pelos mais diversos atores. Para superá-lo, a análise de impacto regulatório é apresentada como instrumento apto a agregar clareza, objetividade e eficiência ao processo decisório ambiental. A incorporação da ferramenta, no entanto, deve ser realizada com cuidado especial, tendo em vista a existência de três principais peculiaridades do direito do meio ambiente. Primeiro, o setor lida não só com situações de risco, mas também com casos de incerteza, em que a ausência de informação impossibilita o cálculo de probabilidade de ocorrência de possíveis resultados. Em segundo lugar, a regulação ambiental recai sobre bens não transacionados em mercados, o que dificulta a obtenção de seu valor de troca, aspecto relevante para a análise de custo-benefício como tradicionalmente conhecida. Por fim, o meio ambiente apresenta desenho regulatório absolutamente fragmentado, composto por variados órgãos normatizadores, deliberativos e fiscalizadores em todos os níveis da federação, o que eleva o risco de deficiências na formação técnica das autoridades reguladoras.

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