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A Methodology for Investigating the Dynamics and Uncertainties of Flood Risks: Frameworks and Simulations Regarding Climate ChangeMaleska, Verena 26 November 2021 (has links)
Flood risks in urban settlements are often determined based upon hydrological and hydrodynamic design events and the existing building stock. After a flood event, a high discrepancy between the assessed risk, the observed flow conditions and resulting loss and damage in flood prone areas is mostly found. This illustrates that flood risks are subject to high spatial and temporal dynamics. Hence, the assessment of the dynamics of flood risks involves considerable variability (variations in the mean state) and change (medium-/long-term trends). In addition, uncertainties play a significant role. Current risk assessment approaches do not sufficiently represent all processes relevant for the dynamics and uncertainties of flood risk generation.
The aim of the thesis is a comprehensive research on the dynamics and uncertainties of fluvial flood risks due to variability and change. It pursues the objective to generate risk curves describing the dynamics (variability and change) and their epistemic uncertainties. To achieve this three research questions are answered. The first research question (RQ1) “What are the influences of the dynamics of flood risks?” identifies (i) major processes involved in flood risk generation, (ii) factors of these processes prone to variability and change, and (iii) drivers triggering the factor’s alteration. The second research question (RQ2) “What is an appropriate way to simulate and analyse the dynamics of flood risks?” concentrates on modules and tools for simulations of the entire flood risk system, the impacts of the drivers, and uncertainties. The answer of RQ2 focuses on climate change as one (group of) driver(s) of dynamics (change) and simulates the current state and future scenarios. The third research question (RQ3) ”What are the flood risk dynamics in a specific catchment?” is determined quantitatively resulting in risk curves with their uncertainty bounds.
To investigate the dynamics and uncertainties of flood risks a three-tiered framework is designed including (1) a conceptual, (2) a methodological and (3) a technological framework. The Conceptual Framework (CF) is assigned to RQ1 focusing on the main drivers of the dynamics by conceptualisation of different subsystems for the assessment of flood risks. The Methodological Framework (MF) is used to answer RQ2 providing an appropriate way to simulate and analyse the dynamics of flood risks by methodical operationalisation of the subsystems through modules. It focuses on climate change considering simulations of future scenarios and various sources of uncertainties. The Technological Framework (TF) describes how different modules and methods are combined to implement the MF by technical realisation of the sequence of modules. An investigation area is selected for empirical testing of the three-tiered framework.
Four modules are developed and tested by a comprehensive multi-model chain representing the flood risk system of the Mulde River catchment and the municipality of Bennewitz. The first module Climate Data Ensemble applies two climate data ensembles: WEREX V and COSMO-CLM accounting for climate variability as well as future change by climate scenarios and uncertainties due to climate models and realisation runs. The second module Hydrologic Modelling uses two models: HBV and WaSiM-ETH optimised by AMALGAM to generate flood events. This module addresses model and parameter uncertainty. The third module Hydrodynamic Modelling applies HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP to derive inundation areas and to account for model uncertainty. The fourth module Damage Modelling combines construction and inventory damage. Risk curves with their bandwidth due dynamics and uncertainties are generated. The analysis of the dynamics and uncertainties is carried out by means of the ANOVA approach allowing for a quantification of the impacts due to the selected climate scenario, climate model, realisation, and hydrological parameter set. A large contribution of climate models and the rather small influence of hydrological parametrisation on rare flood events are detected. A wide range in the risk curves illustrates the influence of climate scenarios, climate models, and hydrologic parametrisations on monetary damages.
The large number of high resolution, continuous long-term model runs as well as model coupling for the flood risk system, makes high performance computing (HPC) and big data assessment essential.:1 Introduction
1.1 Background
1.2 Problem Statement
1.3 Aim, Objective and Research Questions
1.4 Research Strategy and Outline
2 State of the Art
2.1 Flood Risks and Flood Risk Systems
2.2 Dynamics of Flood Risk Systems
2.3 Assessment of Flood Risk Considering Change and Uncertainty
3 Three-tiered Framework for the Assessment of the Dynamics of Flood Risks
3.1 Conceptual Framework
3.1.1 Major Processes of Flood Risk Generation
3.1.1.1 Atmospheric Processes
3.1.1.2 Hydrologic Processes
3.1.1.3 Hydrodynamic Processes
3.1.1.4 Loss and Damage Processes
3.1.1.5 Flood Risks
3.1.2 Factors Prone to Variability and Change
3.1.3 Identification of Drivers and Dynamics
3.2 Methodological Framework
3.2.1 Simulation of Flood Risks
3.2.1.1 Atmospheric Processes – Climate Data Ensemble Module
3.2.1.2 Hydrologic Processes – Hydrological Modelling Module
3.2.1.3 Hydrodynamic Processes – Hydrodynamic Modelling Module
3.2.1.4 Loss and Damage Processes – Damage Modelling Module
3.2.1.5 Flood Risks
3.2.2 Dynamics of Flood Risks Caused by Climate Change as Driver and Uncertainties
3.3 Technological Framework
3.3.1 Software Components
3.3.1.1 Climate Data Ensemble Module
3.3.1.2 Hydrological Modelling Module
3.3.1.3 Hydrodynamic Modelling Module
3.3.1.4 Damage Modelling Module
3.3.1.5 Flood Risks Investigated by Visual Analytics
3.3.2 Development Protocols
4 Implementation of the Framework as Methodology and Empirical Testing
4.1 Flood Risk System of the Mulde River and the Municipality of Bennewitz
4.2 Methodology Testing for the Mulde River and the Municipality of Bennewitz
4.2.1 Climate Data Ensemble Module
4.2.1.1 Module Implementation
4.2.1.2 Results for the Reference Period
4.2.1.3 Results for Future Projections
4.2.2 Hydrologic Modelling Module
4.2.2.1 Module Implementation
4.2.2.2 Results for the Reference Period
4.2.2.3 Results for Future Projections
4.2.3 Hydrodynamic Modelling Module
4.2.3.1 Module Implementation
4.2.3.2 Results for the Reference Period
4.2.3.3 Results for Future Projections
4.2.4 Damage Modelling Module
4.2.4.1 Module Implementation
4.2.4.2 Results for Future Projections
4.3 Dynamics of Flood Risks Resulting in Flood Risk Curves and Uncertainty Quantification
5 Discussion
5.1 Discussion of the Three-tiered Framework
5.2 Discussion of the Implementation of the Framework as Methodology and Empirical Testing
5.2.1 Climate Data Ensemble Module
5.2.2 Hydrologic Modelling Module
5.2.3 Hydrodynamic Modelling Module
5.2.4 Damage Modelling Module
5.2.5 Dynamics of Flood Risks Resulting in Flood Risk Curves and Uncertainty Quantification
6 Conclusions and Outlook
6.1 Conclusions
6.2 Outlook
References
A Appendix Basic Information
B Appendix Results
B.1 Appendix Results Climate Data Ensemble Module
B.2 Appendix Results Hydrologic Modelling Module
B.3 Appendix Results Hydrodynamic Modelling Module
B.4 Appendix Results Damage Modelling Module
B.5 Appendix Results Dynamics and Uncertainties of Flood Risks
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Bezpečnostní testování zařízení s Bluetooth / Bluetooth device security testingHlaváček, Jan January 2017 (has links)
The aim of the thesis is analysis and inventory security risks of Bluetooth technology, assembly Bluetooth adapter and proposal and poposal of testing procedures, which will helps evaluate security of tested device.
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Řízení rizik ve společnosti AT CAR, s.r.o. / Risk Management in the company AT CAR, s.r.o.Kumstát, Petr January 2017 (has links)
Risk management in company AT CAR, s.r.o. with focus on its branch Brno is the main topic of this thesis. As for the risk management itself, the most important tasks are identification, analysis and reducing the possible risks. These processes are described and discussed in the theoretical part of the thesis, while it also introduces all important terms related to this topic. In the analytical part, the risks are identified using appropriate methods such as SLEPTE analysis, Porter’s Five Forces and 7S model. The risks identified are thereafter evaluated using the scoring method. In the last part, recommendations and measures for reducing the risk are presented.
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Zvýšení bezpečnosti vnějšího perimetru / Increasing the safety of the outside perimeterJanoušek, Jiří January 2017 (has links)
This thesis deals with increasing the safety of the external perimeter. The theoretical part describes the parameters of areas exhibiting an increased safety risk. For these spaces, relevant safety hazards and corresponding elimination methods are determined. Then, the term "drone" is analyzed in the context of its applicability. The practical section characterizes the process of building and configuring unmanned aircraft to guard the perimeter and the designing and fabrication of an automatic charging station for the aircraft. The final part of the thesis is a brief manual describing correct handling of the created system.
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Analýza obchodních procesů ve stavebním sdružení / Analysis of business processes in the building associationMalý, Václav January 2018 (has links)
The thesis is focused on analysis of business activities in joint venture. Firs part explains theoretical terms related with thesis subject, such as construction project, joint venture, risks and hazards, construction project costs and prices in civil engineering. Second part is case study, which is focused to the topic related to business activities in joint venture and determining final price of construction project.
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Rizika insolvenčního řízení a jeho prevence / Risks of Insolvency Proceedings and their PreventionSochorová, Ingrid January 2018 (has links)
The diploma thesis deals with risk assessment during personal bankruptcy and risks resulting from frequent borrowing and indebtedness. The aim is to propose measures to reduce the risks.
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Statistické modelování rizikových indikátorů firmy / Statistical Modeling of the Risk Indicators in a CompanyRufer, Jiří January 2019 (has links)
This thesis aims to analyze accounting and financial indicators using time series methods and interval regression analysis for Rudolf Jelínek, a.s. In this thesis are analyzed development trends of individual indicators. Based on the obtained data, the company deals with the risks of the company based on analyzes and their solutions.
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Unga kvinnors riskuppfattning vid backpackerresorJonsson, Anna, Åsander, Matilda January 2021 (has links)
Traveling around the world is a highly appreciated phenomenon globally. In recent years, backpacking has grown in popularity. Characterised by simplicity and adventurousness, it is especially frequent within a young demographic. However, these types of trips produce certain risks to consider, with women being subject to greater risks in the society in large. This study aims to examine risk perception amongst young female backpackers. It was performed using a qualitative method based on 15 semi-structured interviews. Results showed that risk perception has a large impact on women’s chosen destination, with certain destinations subsequently being deselected. Moreover, variable risk perception can be observed over time, in response to the decision process. At commencement, high perception of risk was exhibited, yet later shown to gradually decrease as the trip progressed. Finally, an increased perception of risk was noted post returning from the journey. / Intresset för resor har ökat i stor omfattning. En växande trend under den senaste tiden är backpackerresor. Dessa resor karaktäriseras av en enklare reseform där äventyr står i fokus. Backpackerresor är förekommande speciellt hos unga resenärer. Dessa resor medför olika typer av risker för resenären att ta i beaktande, dessutom kan det uppmärksammas att kvinnor generellt sett utsätts för många risker. Målet med denna studie var därför att undersöka riskuppfattningen hos unga kvinnliga backpackers. Denna studie genomfördes med en kvalitativ metod baserad på 15 semistrukturerade intervjuer. Resultaten antyder att riskuppfattning har en stor påverkan på valet av destination hos kvinnliga resenärer. Till följd av detta tenderar vissa destinationer att väljas bort på grund av de höga uppfattade riskerna. Dessutom kan en variation inom riskuppfattningen noteras över tid i samband med beslutsprocessen. Inför resan uppfattades en hög riskuppfattning som sedan minskade under resan. Följaktligen uppmärksammades återigen en ökad riskuppfattning efter resan.
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Mindfulness i Psykologisk Behandling : Behandlares erfarenheter av utmaningar, fallgropar och risker / Using Mindfulness in Clinical Practice : Psychologists’ experiences of challenges, pitfalls and risksHöglund, Per January 2021 (has links)
Användningen av mindfulness i psykologisk behandling har vuxit kraftigt de senaste decennierna. Forskningen har dock nästan uteslutande fokuserat på dess positiva effekter. I denna studie genomfördes semistrukturerade intervjuer med tio yrkesverksamma psykologer om deras erfarenheter av svårigheter och problem på området. Intervjumaterialet analyserades med induktiv tematisk analys och visade att utmaningar, fallgropar och risker förekommer. Tre övergripande teman genererades; patientrelaterade egenskaper (bl.a. traumatiska erfarenheter, bristande affektreglering och felaktiga förväntningar på mindfulness), egenskaper hos behandlaren (bl.a. bristande förmåga att bedöma patienters behov och förutsättningar) och den övergripande synen på mindfulness (bl.a. bilden av en kostnadseffektiv ”dos” som kan distribueras i gruppformat istället för en individuell läroprocess liksom tendenser att systemproblem såsom arbetsmiljöfrågor läggs på individnivå). Deltagarna poängterar vikten av personlig erfarenhet, att arbeta individanpassat och ha respekt för metoden. / The use of mindfulness in clinical/therapeutical contexts has increased substantially during the past few decades. Most research in the field however has been solely focused on its positive effects. In this study ten clinical psychologists were interviewed regarding their experiences of difficulties and problems when using mindfulness with patients. The resulting material showed that challenges, pitfalls, and risks exist. Using inductive thematic analysis three major themes were generated: aspects relating to the patient (e.g. traumatic experiences, insufficient capacity in regulating affect and unrealistic expectations), aspects relating to the practitioner (e.g. insufficient capacity to assess the patient´s needs and capacities) and the overall view of mindfulness (e.g. as a cost efficient “dose” which can easily be distributed in a group setting instead of as an individual learning process as well as tendencies to individualize systemic problems such as working environment). The participants emphasize the importance of personal experience, to have respect for the method and to adapt and customize it to the patient.
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Návrh projektu a aplikace metodiky projektového managementu v podniku / Project Design and Project Management Methodology Application in a CompanyŠustrová, Tereza January 2011 (has links)
The master thesis deals with E-commerce implementation project proposal in an organization selling bicycles and bicycle accessories. Methodology of project management is used for creating of the project.
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