This organizational leadership thesis explored how becoming a learning organization could support Servus Credit Union's increased focus on sales to enhance the customer experience and adhered to the Royal Roads University Research Ethics Policy. An appreciative stance was applied within an action research methodology to enhance the understanding of what is involved in being a learning organization. Four interviews were conducted with external participants to learn from their experiences with learning organizations. An internal focus group was then conducted with Servus Credit Union District and Regional Managers to further explore what would be required to create an exceptional customer experience and to continuously improve. The following recommendations emerged from the research: involve employees in revitalizing the vision, mission, and values; integrate the vision, mission, and values into the performance management process; formalize a leadership development program; establish a cross-functional innovation team; and engage customers to understand their needs.

Abstract   Purpose - The purpose with this thesis is to investigate how to increase sales forecast accuracy.   Methodology – To fulfil the purpose a case study was conducted. To collect data from the case study the authors performed interviews and gathered documents. The empirical data was then analysed and compared with the theoretical framework.   Result – The result shows that inaccuracies in forecasts are not necessarily because of the forecasting technique but can be a result from an unorganized forecasting process and having an inefficient information flow. The result further shows that it is not only important to review the information flow within the company but in the supply chain as whole to improve a forecast’s accuracy. The result also shows that time series can generate more accurate sales forecasts compared to only using qualitative techniques. It is, however, necessary to use a qualitative technique when creating time series. Time series only take time and sales history into account when forecasting, expertise regarding consumer behaviour, promotion activity, and so on, is therefore needed. It is also crucial to use qualitative techniques when selecting time series technique to achieve higher sales forecast accuracy. Personal expertise and experience are needed to identify if there is enough sales history, how much the sales are fluctuating, and if there will be any seasonality in the forecast. If companies gain knowledge about the benefits from each technique the combination can improve the forecasting process and increase the accuracy of the sales forecast.   Conclusions – This thesis, with support from a case study, shows how time series and qualitative techniques can be combined to achieve higher accuracy. Companies that want to achieve higher accuracy need to know how the different techniques work and what is needed to take into account when creating a sales forecast. It is also important to have knowledge about the benefits of a well-designed forecasting process, and to do that, improving the information flow both within the company and the supply chain is a necessity.      Research limitations – Because there are several different techniques to apply when creating a sales forecast, the authors could have involved more techniques in the investigation. The thesis work could also have used multiple case study objects to increase the external validity of the thesis.

市場研究首先面對的課題就是價格與供需，習慣上研究者多採取「價格與需求」或「價格與供給」的配對方式來處理，或者在價格與交易量同時決定的市場均衡假設下，直接以「價格」的討論做為市場研究的對象。 本研究認為「價格與供需」在既有的理論基礎之外，更重要的意義是提供一些較為適宜的研究切入點，然後讓研究者依據現實的觀察與理論的推演，來探討市場變數之間各種可能的關係。因此，本研究依據台灣住宅市場的主要特性，並且從價格與數量兩種變數的各項關係，建立分析台灣住宅市場的理論基礎與發展方向。 基本上，價格與供需數量是市場上最重要的資訊，分別表示著供需雙方進入是場所面對的成本與收益水準，以及供需雙方對當前價格的接受程度以及對未來價格的預期，市場上的任何變遷實際上都是市場參與者行為的結果。因此本研究先將住宅供幾者分為建商與一般售屋者，將需求者分為投資需求者與消費需求者，並且探討各類市場參與者的行為特性，以及在不同的市場景氣下，各種供需行為的加總對市場價格與交易量波動的影響，然後據此結果建立住宅市場景氣循環的個體行為基礎。這樣的分析方式，一方面可補充過去直接以總體經濟變數分析市場景氣循環的不足，同時也可以瞭解住宅市場景氣循環的個體面原因。 此外，因為住宅具有異質性，因此可從財貨類型、區位﹍等角度區隔為多種次市場，且在各種次市場的各種住宅價格與供需數量之間存在著不同的理論關係。然而此項課題涉及的研究領域十分廣泛，因此本研究僅探討台灣住宅市場最具特色的預售屋市場與成屋市場的關係。 本研究對此項課題是以住宅存量-流量模型為基礎，一方面納入預售市場於建築期間即可銷售的特性，以及國人以購屋為主的住宅消費習慣，同時探討住宅生產時間落差現象，進而建立解釋成屋市場與預售屋市場價格與數量關係的理論基礎。 另外，住宅次市場的概念引發了本研究對個別次市場之間，以及整體市場與次市場之間相互關係的討論，這是既有研究尚未深入探討的領域。在變數方面，本研究以住宅次市場「價格比例」與「市場規模」取代傳統的價格水準與交易戶數；在理論基礎上，則以封閉市場的假設條件下，探討整體市場與個別次市場的相互關係；關於各次市場之間，則假設彼此具有相互競爭與合作兩種關係，並以開放市場的概念來討論。 此項研究課題對重新建構住宅市場的理論體系具有十分重要的意義。此項理論關係，一方面打破過去將單一住宅次市場視為封閉體系的研究假設，提出各住宅次市場之間的橫向關係，以及次市場與整體市場的縱向關係。更重要的是，可以透過此項理論結構探討住宅市場資源（金）在各個次市場的配置關係與原因，對解釋台灣住宅市場的亂象深具意義。 在前述的理念體系與理論基礎下，本研究進行各項理論上的推演與實證分析，所得結果說明如下： 一、從住宅市場供需雙方行為特性配合市場景氣循環過程的影響得知：在景氣循環過程中，住宅供需雙方的行為結果，將使得市場價格與交易量均衡點的移動軌跡呈現逆時針旋轉的趨勢。另經由單根檢定與共積檢定，發現台北市住宅價格波動會對交易量脫離長期均衡時能夠產生調整的功能；然而，當市場價格脫離長期均衡時，交易量反而是朝發散的方向波動，顯示台北市住宅市場的投資需求以及投機的影響確實十分明顯。 二、從成屋與預售屋市場之價格與供給量的關係，配合國人偏好購屋以及住宅生產期間長的特性，重新界定住宅存量市場與流量市場的理論結構，並修正住宅存量-流量模型。實證結果顯示，台北市成屋市場與預售屋市場的價格與供給量的關係，並不完全符合存量-流量模型。 此外，成屋與預售屋市場的價格波動具有促進市場向長期均衡收斂的功能，且預售屋市場價格的調整速率高於成屋市場，顯示預售屋制度有提昇市場效率的作用。但是預售屋供給量並無法發揮調節成屋市場供需落差的功能，顯示台北市住宅供給量資訊的市場意義仍未明顯發揮，這也是為何近年來市場餘屋大量增加下，市場價格下跌卻十分有限的原因之一。 三、本研究假設整體市場規模是由個別次市場規模加總而來，而非假設整體市場規模固定，再分配到個別次市場之中，並以「價格比例」與「市場規模」的相互影響關係，建立住宅空間次市場相互影響關係的靜態與比較靜態理論基礎。由理論分析得知，住宅空間次市場的價格比例與市場規模是相互連動的，且各住宅次市場同時受到整體市場景氣趨勢的同向波動影響，以及相互競爭的反向波動影響。 實證結果顯示，台北市與台北縣住宅空間次市場的規模之間並不是純然的競爭關係，而是呈現齊漲齊跌的情況。顯示台北市縣住宅市場的競爭程度低於共同反應預期景氣的相互拉抬合作程度。此外，在住宅價格比例長期遞減趨勢下，台北市住宅市場的規模將會逐漸縮減，台北縣住宅市場規模則持續擴大，且兩次市場住宅價格比例也將逐漸持續降低。 / This dissertation combined by three relative essays. In the first paper I analyze the relationship between price and volume of housing market in Taiwan. The analysis suggests a counter-clock cyclical pattern of housing price and volume in the standard price-quantity plane. Empirical results through cointegration tests confirm our analysis that, in the long run, the fluctuation of Taipei's housing transaction volume causes the housing price to fluctuate. In the second paper I discusses the relationship between existing and pre-sales housing market. Basically, existing housing market is similar as spot market, pre-sales housing market is similar to futures or forwards market (Chang & Ward, 1993). Restated, the goods of pre-sales housing market are the housing units under construction. We modify the stock-flow model of Fisher(1992) and DiPasquale & Wheaton(1992, 1994) to analyze the price-volume relationship between existing housing market and pre-sales housing market. By the empirical test of Taiwan's housing market, the consequences imply that pre-sales market price adjustment rate to the long-run equilibrium price is rapid than the price adjustment rate in existing housing market. In other words, the pre-sales system can improve the market efficiency. The result of supply adjustment rate is insignificant, which implying that housing market is basically influenced by price not by volume in Taiwan. The final paper established the price, volume and mutual interrelation basis through the housing price ratio and market size to provide housing market framework researchers a new point. Then I conducted an empirical analysis of the Taipei City and Taipei County housing markets. Finding that the competition between the two sub-markets is low. Furthermore, there is a signification correlation between market size and price ratio fluctuation, and the price ratio is a better of market economical cycle indicator than price fluctuation.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Missouri-Columbia, 2007. / The entire dissertation/thesis text is included in the research.pdf file; the official abstract appears in the short.pdf file (which also appears in the research.pdf); a non-technical general description, or public abstract, appears in the public.pdf file. Title from title screen of research.pdf file (viewed on February 27, 2008) Vita. Includes bibliographical references.

Thesis--Universität, 2004/05--Marburg. / Includes bibliographical references (p. [340]-355) and index.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Linköping : Linköpings universitet, 2006. / Härtill 6 uppsatser.

Univ., Diss.--Saarbrücken, 2004. / Literaturverz. S. [289] - 298 . Text überw. dt., teilw. franz.

Universiẗat, Diss.--Bayreuth, 2008.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität, Hamburg, 2007. / Includes bibliographical references (p. 331-351).

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology, 2007. / Committee Co-Chair: Griffin, Paul; Committee Co-Chair: Serban, Nicoleta; Committee Member: Liang, Steven; Committee Member: Sharp, Gunter; Committee Member: Tsui, Kwok-Leung