Zugl.: Köln, Univ., Diss., 2008

Along this dissertation I propose to walk the reader through several macroeconomic implications of information asymmetries, with a special focus on financial issues. This exercise is mainly theoretical: I develop stylized models that aim at capturing macroeconomic phenomena such as self-fulfilling liquidity dry-ups, the rise and the fall of securitization markets, and the creation of systemic risk. The dissertation consists of three chapters. The first one proposes an explanation to self-fulfilling liquidity dry-ups. The second chapters proposes a formalization of the concept of market discipline and an application to securitization markets as risk-sharing mechanisms. The third one offers a complementary analysis to the second as the rise of securitization is presented as banker optimal response to strict capital constraints. Two concepts that do not have unique acceptations in economics play a central role in these models: liquidity and market discipline. The liquidity of an asset refers to the ability for his owner to transform it into current consumption goods. Secondary markets for long-term assets play thus an important role with that respect. However, such markets might be illiquid due to adverse selection. In the first chapter, I show that: (1) when agents expect a liquidity dry-up on such markets, they optimally choose to self-insure through the hoarding of non-productive but liquid assets; (2) this hoarding behavior worsens adverse selection and dries up market liquidity; (3) such liquidity dry-ups are Pareto inefficient equilibria; (4) the government can rule them out. Additionally, I show that idiosyncratic liquidity shocks à la Diamond and Dybvig have stabilizing effects, which is at odds with the banking literature. The main contribution of the chapter is to show that market breakdowns due to adverse selection are highly endogenous to past balance-sheet decisions. I consider that agents are under market discipline when their current behavior is influenced by future market outcomes. A key ingredient for market discipline to be at play is that the market outcome depends on information that is observable but not verifiable (that is, information that cannot be proved in court, and consequently, upon which enforceable contracts cannot be based). In the second chapter, after introducing this novel formalization of market discipline, I ask whether securitization really contributes to better risk-sharing: I compare it with other mechanisms that differ on the timing of risk-transfer. I find that for securitization to be an efficient risk-sharing mechanism, it requires market discipline to be strong and adverse selection not to be severe. This seems to seriously restrict the set of assets that should be securitized for risk-sharing motive. Additionally, I show how ex-ante leverage may mitigate interim adverse selection in securitization markets and therefore enhance ex-post risk-sharing. This is interesting because high leverage is usually associated with “excessive” risktaking. In the third chapter, I consider risk-neutral bankers facing strict capital constraints; their capital is indeed required to cover the worst-case-scenario losses. In such a set-up, I find that: 1) banker optimal autarky response is to diversify lower-tail risk and maximize leverage; 2) securitization helps to free up capital and to increase leverage, but distorts incentives to screen loan applicants properly; 3) market discipline mitigates this problem, but if it is overestimated by the supervisor, it leads to excess leverage, which creates systemic risk. Finally, I consider opaque securitization and I show that the supervisor: 4) faces uncertainty about the trade-off between the size of the economy and the probability and the severity of a systemic crisis; 5) can generally not set capital constraints at the socially efficient level.

Face à un constat de déconnexion entre la valorisation de trois types d’actifs (deux actifs financiers et un actif immobilier) et les fondamentaux économiques dans la période récente, marquée par l’occurrence de crises économiques et financières sévères, cette thèse vise à mettre en évidence le rôle des anticipations des agents économiques.Premièrement, cette thèse souligne que le rôle des anticipations dans la récente crise de dette en zone euro est lié à l’existence de complémentarités stratégiques dans les décisions des agents économiques. Dans cette perspective, l’apport de cette thèse est de s’intéresser à un fait central et pourtant passé relativement inaperçu : la hausse de la part de dette détenue par les résidents dans les économies les plus fragiles de la zone euro à partir de la fin 2008. Nous montrons que si les chocs d’endettement public ont bien un effet positifs ur le biais domestique dans la détention de dette publique, les chocs d’anticipations pessimistes peuvent également jouer un rôle significatif pour expliquer les variations du biais domestique. Deuxièmement, cette thèse montre que la volatilité excessive du prix de certains actifs relativement aux fondamentaux peut être expliquée dans le cadre de modèles standards dès lors que l’on relâche l’hypothèse d’anticipations rationnelles et que l’on suppose que les agents estiment les paramètres des lois gouvernant la dynamique des fondamentaux, à la façon d’économètres. Sous cette hypothèse, un modèle de prix d’actifs standard permet d’expliquer l’épisode de forte valorisation du prix des actions américaines au début des années 2000, suivi par un fort effondrement des cours à partir de 2008 et jusqu’à mi-2009.Enfin, nous montrons que modéliser un processus d’apprentissage bayésien sur le prix des actifs immobiliers dans le cadre d’un modèle DSGE avec des frictions de crédit permet d’expliquer simultanément la forte volatilité des prix immobiliers - qui a joué un rôle central dans la crise des subprimes - et celle de variables caractérisant le cycle des affaires aux Etats-Unis sur la période 1985-2015. / In view of the disconnect between the pricing of three types of assets (two types of financial assets and real-estate assets) and economic fundamentals in the recent period ofsevere economic and financial crises, this thesis aims at highlighting the role of economicagents’ expectations.First, this thesis emphasizes that the role of expectations in the recent Eurozonesovereign debt crisis relates to strategic complementarities in agents’ decisions. In thisrespect, this thesis focuses on one major but mostly unnoticed fact: the share of governmentdebt held by the resident sector increased beginning at the end of 2008 in the mostfragile economies of the zone. We show that – whereas public debt shocks positively affectthe home bias in sovereign debt – pessimistic expectation shocks can also significantlyexplain variations in home bias.Second, this thesis shows that excess volatility in stock and in house prices relativeto fundamentals can be accounted for by standard models when the rational expectationshypothesis is relaxed and when agents are assumed to estimate the parameters of the lawsof motion driving the dynamics of economic fundamentals – that is, as econometricians.Under this assumption, a standard asset pricing model can explain the persistently highvaluation in US stock prices in the early 2000s followed by their dramatic bust by 2009.Finally, we show that modelling Bayesian learning regarding house prices in the contextof a DSGE model with credit frictions allows us to simultaneously replicate the dramaticvolatility in house prices - which played a crucial role in the subprime crisis - and in businesscycle variables over the 1985-2015 period.

Conceptual development and achievement are embedded in social relationships. Research on self-fulfilling prophecies in the classroom has shown teachers' inaccurate perceptions about a child's ability shape schoolchildren's intellectual development in the direction of the misperception (Jussim & Harber, 2005; Rosenthal & Jacobson, 1968; Sorhagen, 2013). This contrasts with prior research on the influences of parents' misperceptions, which has shown that parents with accurate perceptions of their child's abilities, compared to those with misperceptions, have children with advanced conceptual development and higher achievement (Hunt & Paraskevopoulos, 1980; S. A. Miller, Manhal, & Mee, 1991; Sorhagen, 2014a, 2014b). Taken together, the literature on adult misperceptions of child abilities paints discrepant pictures of how adults' inaccurate beliefs may influence children's achievement trajectories. There is evidence for conditional direct and indirect effects of misperceptions within both literatures. Perhaps if moderating conditions were the same at school and at home, the effects of teacher and parent misperceptions would be the same. The present dissertation used prospective data to address the conflicting evidence on the effects of teachers' and mothers' misperceptions of abilities, focusing on differences in the magnitude and direction of adult misperceptions by the levels of environmental control (i.e. rigidly structured and intrusive versus autonomy-supporting). The results confirmed and extended the prior literature by showing that children's reading and math achievement in high school were differentially affected by the accuracy of adults' perceptions of the children's abilities depending on whether the adult is a teacher or mother. Children's high school performance benefited most when their teachers overestimated their abilities and when their mothers' accurately estimated their abilities in in third-grade. Furthermore, there was evidence for mediation through adults' differential treatment in the reading models. Evidence for moderation was also seen in the reading models, but only for the influence of teachers' misperceptions on teacher attention, which indirectly led to differences in child achievement (i.e. conditional indirect effects). The effects of teachers' misperceptions were more profound at low levels of environmental control compared to highly controlled classrooms. Thus environmental control did not lead to similar influences of teacher and mother misperceptions. This supports the notion that there are different consequences of teacher and mother misperceptions on child achievement. The results of additional analyses found child characteristics (i.e. child birth order, gender, ethnicity, family SES, child social competencies, and prior abilities), as well as teacher's self-efficacy predicted the degree of accuracy of the adults' perceptions of children's reading and math abilities. Furthermore, the results showed that teachers' and mothers' perceptions were often accurate, but when one adult was inaccurate, it was likely that the other adult's perception was similar. As we become increasingly aware of the importance of social influences on cognition, the results of the present dissertation suggest that it is important to consider differences between socializing agents. / Psychology

Judgments of Learning (JOL) that are made after a delay, instead of immediately after study, are more accurate in terms of predicting later recall (the delayed JOL effect). The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy (SFP) theory explains the delayed JOL effect as the result of a testing effect. In the current study we tested the prediction that performing delayed JOLs leads to a memory improvement. During learning, 79 participants studied Swahili-Swedish word pairs, immediately followed by a cued recall test, and then made either one single or three repeated, spaced JOLs. A final cued recall test was given after either 5 minutes or 1 week. Making repeated JOLs did not increase memory performance compared to the single JOL condition, hence lending no support to the SFP theory. However, making repeated JOLs did improve their relative accuracy, which suggests that the delayed JOL effect mainly concerns memory monitoring and not performance.

Although Republicans and Democrats frequently disagree ideologically, the leaders of both parties share one commonality in particular--they inevitably make flawed judgments. To adequately understand the extent to which psychological filters act as a fundamental factor in decision making, this thesis shall analyze current political events and observe how partisans within both administrations deal with information incompatible with their own values and beliefs. Specifically referencing the war in Iraq, weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), civil unrest, national security, the national economic climate, and the housing market, this study examines the way leaders deal differently with conflicting information. Although all subjects in the latter shall be discussed, the primary focus is directed towards weapons of mass destruction during the Bush administration and the economic climate during the Obama administration. During their presidencies, both administrations faced different circumstances and congruently possessed different ideologies in respect of how to resolve current problems. Therefore, both President Obama and Bush shall equally be observed in order to adequately compare the extent to which each succumbs to cognitive biases when faced with dissonant information. In addition, groupthink theory, schema theory, and self-justification shall be discussed as complimentary forces which impair political members' decisions. Overall, qualitatively assessing both Republican and Democratic parties in one comprehensive examination breaks the bounds of usual political science studies because both partisans are linked more by their similarities than differences.

This study investigated the impact expectancy beliefs had on third through fifth-grade teachers’ instructional teaching practices. These instructional teaching practices included how teachers used their pedagogical content knowledge, specifically their content knowledge for teaching mathematics and formative assessment, to make scaffolding decisions while supporting students in mathematics intervention. The investigation included the analysis of stratified sampling procedures, expectancy beliefs, observations, and self-reported scaffolding ratings. A multiple case study was conducted to understand how four participants, the teachers in the study, expected students to perform in mathematics intervention along with the participants’ pedagogical content knowledge and the impact those beliefs and knowledge had on scaffolding practices. Scaffolding practices highlighted in this study were the teachers’ use of cognitive activation, mathematical discourse, and handling errors productively. Findings suggested that even though teachers demonstrated having content knowledge for teaching mathematics and effective use of formative assessment the teachers still scaffolded just-in-case students might need it during mathematics intervention. The results also suggested that teachers relied upon their expectancy beliefs of students to make scaffolding decisions more than the teachers relied upon their own pedagogical content knowledge. Additionally, this study found that a scaffolding workshop focused on teacher actions may impact the teachers’ self-reported ratings and in turn the teachers’ scaffolding practices. Discussion of the findings in relation to the current literature and their implications was provided. Continued research was suggested to examine how teachers self-rate their scaffolding practices pre- and post-scaffolding workshops and the impact that may have on teachers’ scaffolding practices. These findings add to the research in the field of mathematics education in equitable teaching practices, mathematics intervention, and scaffolding practices.

Sensitivity to rejection is a tendency to anxiously or angrily expect, readily perceive, and then overreact to rejection in interpersonal relationships (Downey & Feldman, 1996). This thesis examined the potential associations between rejection sensitivity and romantic relationships in an adult population. I hypothesized that rejection sensitivity will negatively influence perceived quality of romantic relationship, including these relational factors: viability, intimacy, passion, care, satisfaction, conflict, maintenance and commitment. In the research participated 296 respondents (i.e. 148 couples), which individually completed Sensitivity to rejection scale and Relationship rating form (both measures used in Czech translation). On the basis of individual analysis of all respondents (i.e. the whole sample) were found most significant negative correlations with the viability factor and care factor. Furthermore, also the low negative correlation between sensitivity to rejection and satisfaction and commitment factors. At the level of couples were not confirmed either one statistically significant result. Although hypothesis about the influence of sensitivity to rejection on the romantic relationship were confirmed only at the individuals, and not at the individual couples, this study suggest the...

In the 21st Century, many Americans continue to fight battles for men of color who are at the forefront of criminal injustice, unemployment, and low matriculation. With great dominion and urgency, our Nation must ensure all men, regardless of the adversity can succeed and build legacies in their families, communities, and the economy. In this action research study, an ecological system theory was used to analyze the stakeholders who have implemented the following public polices under the Obama Administration: 21st Century Policing, My Brother's Keeper, and Race to the Top. This research answers the question how stakeholders are able to impact positive social change through implementing polices that focus on academia, criminal justice, and employment for African-American and Latino males living in Los Angeles County. Data was retrieved from 16 non-profit organizations; a target population was then sampled resulting in 25 participants that have expertise in working with men of color. Participant's answered 10 interview questions and their short answers were inductively coded, which revealed significant themes. Daily mentorship was identified as the leading tool to garner success in working with men color, while ecological influences, limited funding, policy misalignment, and stereotypical threats have been recurring barriers. Key findings recommended: mixed-method data, stakeholder collaborations, training programs, and creative marketing. Furthermore, this study closes the gap towards aligning with public polices that will create supportive services for men of color and offering stakeholders -'the what, and the how' towards implementing social change.

Cette thèse a pour objectif de participer à l’étude du changement des industries contemporaines et d’appliquer des outils de la science politique à l’analyse de l’économie. À travers l’étude du cas de la voiture électrique, nous nous interrogeons sur les causes des évolutions de l’industrie automobile. Notre hypothèse est que la construction du marché des voitures électriques entre 2008 et 2013 n’a pas produit la « Révolution » annoncée par les acteurs sociaux. Au contraire, elle a permis la reproduction des structures et des hiérarchies industrielles existantes. Pour le démontrer, ce travail tente de comprendre non seulement comment la question du développement des voitures électriques a été érigée au rang de problème public, mais aussi comment ce « problème » s’est institutionnalisé comme un cadre consensuel d’action des constructeurs automobiles. Par ce biais, nous mettons en lumière l’importance des croyances et des représentations collectives sur l’activité économique, dans l’optique de déconstruire le mythe de la « Seconde Révolution automobile ». En outre, notre travail montre que la science politique, et plus précisément l’analyse des politiques publiques et la sociologie de l’action publique, peut apporter des outils analytiques heuristiques et des réponses concrètes au fonctionnement des industries et du capitalisme contemporain. Par cette voie, cette thèse entend apporter une contribution aux questions que se posent sociologues, économistes et politistes sur le changement économique et les processus qui en sont à l’origine. / This thesis aims to generate knowledge upon change within contemporary industries and apply tools from political science to the analysis of the economy. Through the case study of the electric car market, the focus is on the causes of the transformation of the automobile industry. The central claim made is that the social construction of the electric car market between 2008 and 2013, did not produce the “Revolution” announced by the actors involved in this industry. On the contrary, it has facilitated the reproduction of existing industrial structures and hierarchies. To demonstrate this claim, the thesis has sought to understand how the issue of the development of electric cars has been elevated to the status of public problem by several States around the world. From there, we then sought to discover how this “problem” has become a consensual strategic framework for automakers and a key issue within the automobile industry. Throughout this research, we highlight the impact of beliefs and collective representations upon economic activity, and deconstructed the myth of the “Second Automobile Revolution”. Furthermore, our work shows that political science, specifically the sociology of public action, can supply heuristic analytical tools and practical answers to the understanding of contemporary industries and capitalism. This thesis is thus a contribution to questions asked by sociologists, economists and political scientists about economic change