O inventário das espécies arbóreas e da infra-estrutura das praças da cidade de Vinhedo, foi efetuado verificando-se inclusive os equipamentos oferecidos e o estado geral de conservação. Os levantamentos foram feitos no perímetro urbano, excetuando-se os condomínios, as áreas de parques e as de preservação de mananciais. Para a caracterização dos bairros, foram utilizados dois parâmetros: a setorização adotada pela prefeitura e planta de valores imobiliários. Foi realizado o inventário da vegetação arbórea, no qual foram considerados apenas os indivíduos com CAP (circunferência à altura do peito) acima de 10cm e foram levantadas as seguintes informações: nomes comum e científico das espécies; CAP; altura; aspecto geral; diâmetro de copa; latitude e longitude por meio de GPS; presença de pragas, doenças ou parasitas; ocorrência de podas (drástica e/ou de condução); fitossanidade da raiz, tronco e copa. Nas praças, os itens analisados foram: nome da praça, localização, área total de cada praça, número total de árvores e elementos arquitetônicos. Foram levantadas 22 praças, totalizando 764 indivíduos divididos em 23 famílias botânicas, com 55 espécies além de 32 espécies que não foram identificadas até o momento. A espécie de maior ocorrência foi Syagrus romanzoffiana (jerivá), com 31,94%. Em 63,64% das praças, menos de 50% das espécies eram exóticas. A maior parte dos indivíduos apresentou aspecto geral normal, demostrando prática de tratos culturais adequados. Na maioria dos casos, as podas foram feitas corretamente, ou não houve a necessidade de nenhuma intervenção. Do total de 22 praças, apenas cinco apresentaram bom estado geral de conservação tanto dos elementos naturais, como dos construídos. Em 68,18% das praças da cidade, foram encontradas árvores com altura superior a 6m, mostrando que eram áreas que necessitavam apenas de procedimentos de manutenção de rotina. Por outro lado 22,72% das praças necessitavam de práticas de manutenção mais direcionadas ao desenvolvimento das árvores, tais como adubações periódicas, capina, podas de condução. Finalmente, em 13,64% das praças deveriam ocorrer intervenções tanto de manutenção, como de recuperação por meio de novos plantios, ou mesmo, de planejamento para remodelação da área. A cidade de Vinhedo apresentou carência de praças em muitos bairros, pois, dos 31 existentes, apenas oito possuíam alguma área disponível. Os bairros localizados no setor S2 (áreas próximas ao centro ou em bairros onde há apenas comércio local) possuíam maior percentagem de praças (40,91%) e de cobertura vegetal (19.466,04m 2 ). Esses bairros apresentaram arborização melhor que a dos outros setores, principalmente em relação aos localizados em áreas predominantemente industriais, como é o caso de S4. Foi possível observar que a arborização está diretamente ligada ao valor do imóvel. As praças com melhor estado de conservação estavam localizadas em bairros de maior nível sócio-econômico. A cidade de Vinhedo apresentou os seguintes índices cobertura vegetal: 0,55m 2 de copa/habitante; áreas verdes: 2,19m 2 de praça/habitante; áreas verdes para parque de vizinhança: 0,65m 2 de parque de vizinhança/habitante; áreas verdes para parque de bairro: 1,55m 2 de parque de bairro/habitante; áreas verdes utilizáveis: 1,95m 2 de praças utilizáveis/habitante e área verde por bairro: 0,1633m 2 de praças/bairro. / A quali-quantitative survey of the tree species and the general state of the infrastructure of the squares was carried out at the city of Vinhedo. The surveys were made in the urban area, excepting the private housing estates, as well as areas of parks and natural resources. The inventory of the trees was carried out by selecting only individuals with trunk (circumference at the height of 1.30m) in excess of 10cm. The following parameters were assessed: common and scientific names of the species; trunk circumference at 1.30m; height; general state; tree-top diameter; latitude and longitude by means of GPS; presence of plagues, diseases or parasites; occurrence and type of pruning (drastic and/or of training); sanitary state of roots, trunks and tree-tops. Regarding the squares it was also analyzed: name of the square, location, total area of each square, total number of trees and architectural elements. Two parameters were also used for the characterization of the squares: the borough system, as adopted by the city prefecture and the real value of the estates. A total of 22 squares have been surveyed, making up to 764 individuals, comprising 23 botanical families, 55 species, not including 32 species which have not been identified yet. The species of higher frequency showed to be the palm Syagrus romanzoffiana with 31,94% of the individuals. Less than 50% of the species were exotic in 63,64% of the squares. The majority of the individuals showed good general state, where pruning has been made correctly or did not have the need to be made. Out of 22 squares only 5 were found to be in good state of conservation for both natural and constructed elements. In 68,18% of the squares trees were taller than 6m, only feasible to routine maintenance, whilst 22.72% of the squares were in need of better management for the proper development of the trees such as: periodic fertilizations, weeding, prunings tarining; and finally 13.64% of the squares were in need of better maintenance, new planting or planning for renovation. The city of Vinhedo showed a lack of squares in many boroughs. Out of 31 boroughs only 8 had squares. Squares located in sector S2 (areas near to the city center or with local shops), have showed the largest percentage of squares (40,91%) and plant coverage (19.466,04m 2). These borough had a better arborization when compared to those found in predominantly industrials areas, such as S4. It was possible to observe that the arborization is directly related to the value of the property. The squares with better arborization were located in boroughs with higher priced estates. The following indexes were found for the city of Vinhedo: plant coverage - 0,55m 2 tree-top/inhabitant; green areas - 2,19m 2 of square/inhabitant; green areas per neighborhood park - 0,65m 2 neighborhood park/inhabitant; green areas per park of borough - 1,55m 2 park of borough/inhabitant; utilizable green areas - 1,95m 2 usable squares/inhabitant and green area per borough 0,1633m 2 square/ borough.

Inom bank och försäkringsbranschen finns behov av framtidsprognoser och riskmått kopplade till finansiella instrument. För att skapa prisfördelningar, som kan användas som grund till olika riskmått, används ibland nästlad simulering. För att göra detta simuleras först en stor mängd yttre scenarion för någon tillgång, som används i ett finanisellt instrument. Vilket görs genom att priser simuleras över en tidsperiod. Detta utgör tidshorisonten varvid prisfördelningen befinner sig. Utifrån varje yttre scenario simuleras sedan ett antal inre. Som i sin tur används för att prissätta finansiella instrumentet i det yttre scenariot. En metod som används för att prisätta de yttre scenariona är Monte Carlo-metoden, vilket kräver ett stort antal inre scenarion för att prissättningen ska bli korrekt. Detta gör metoden krävande i tidsåtgång och datorkraft. Least Squares Monte Carlo-metoden är en alternativ metod som använder sig av regression och minstakvadratmetoden för att utföra prissättningen med ett mindre antal inre scenarion. En regressionsfunktion anpassas efter yttre scenarionas värden och används sedan för att omvärdera dessa, vilket minskar felen som ett mindre antal slumptal annars skulle ge. Regressionsfunktionen kan även användas för att prissätta värden utanför de som den anpassas efter, vilket gör att den kan återanvändas vid liknande beräkningar. I detta arbete undersöks hur väl Least Squares Monte Carlo-metoden beskriver prisfördelningen för korgoptioner, som är optioner med flera underliggande tillgångar. Tester utförs med olika värden för parametrarna och vikt läggs vid vilken effekt yttre scenarionas längd har, samt hur väl priserna beskrivs i prisfördelningens svansar. Resultatet är delvis svåranalyserat på grund av många extrema värden, men visade på svårigheter med prissättningen vid längre yttre scenarion. Vilket kan bero på att regressionsfunktionen som användes hade svårt att anpassa sig efter och beskriva mer spridda prisfördelningar. Metoden fungerade också sämre i den nedre delen av prisfördelningen, något som den dock delar med Standard Monte Carlo. Mer forskning behövs för att undersöka vilken effekt andra uppsättningar regressionsfunktioner skulle ha på metoden. / In the banking and insurance industry, there exists a need for forecasting and measures of risk connecting to financial instruments. To create price distributions, used to create measures of risk, nested simulations are sometimes used. This is done by simulating a large amount of outer scenarios, for some asset in a financial instrument. Which is done by simulating prices over a certain time period. This now outlines the time horizon of the price distribution. From each outer scenario, some inner scenarios are simulated. Which in turn are used to price the financial instrument in the outer scenario. A common method for pricing the outer scenarios is the Monte Carlo method, which uses a large amount of random numbers for the pricing to be accurate. This makes the method time consuming, as well as requiring large amounts of computing power. The Least Squares Monte Carlo method is an alternative method, using regression and the least squares method to perform the pricing using a smaller amount of inner scenarios. A regression function is fitted to the values of the outer scenarios and then used to revalue these, reducing the error which a smaller number of random numbers otherwise would give. The regression function can also be used to price outside of the values used for the fitting, making it reusable in similar computations. This paper examines how well the Least Squares Monte Carlo-method describes the price distribution of basket options, which are options containing several underlying assets. Tests are made for different values for the parameters used and an emphasis is laid on the effect of the time length of the outer scenarios, also, how accurate the tails of the distribution are. The results are somewhat hard to analyze,due to some extreme values, but showed difficulties for the method, when pricing longer outer scenarios. This can be due to the regression function having problems fitting to - and valuing - broader price distributions. The method also performed worse in the lower parts of the distribution, something it shares with the standard Monte Carlo method. More research is needed to ascertain the effects of other regression functions.

by Ho King Choi. / Thesis (Ph.D.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1991. / Includes bibliographical references. / Chapter 1. --- Introduction --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- Adaptive Filter and Adaptive System --- p.1 / Chapter 1.2 --- Applications of Adaptive Filter --- p.4 / Chapter 1.2.1 --- System Identification --- p.4 / Chapter 1.2.2 --- Noise Cancellation --- p.6 / Chapter 1.2.3 --- Echo Cancellation --- p.8 / Chapter 1.2.4 --- Speech Processing --- p.10 / Chapter 1.3 --- Chapter Summary --- p.14 / References --- p.15 / Chapter 2. --- Adaptive Filter Structures and Algorithms --- p.17 / Chapter 2.1 --- Filter Structures for Adaptive Filtering --- p.17 / Chapter 2.2 --- Adaptation Algorithms --- p.22 / Chapter 2.2.1 --- The LMS Adaptation Algorithm --- p.24 / Chapter 2.2.1.1 --- Convergence Analysis --- p.28 / Chapter 2.2.1.2 --- Steady State Performance --- p.33 / Chapter 2.2.2 --- The RLS Adaptation Algorithm --- p.35 / Chapter 2.3 --- Chapter Summary --- p.39 / References --- p.41 / Chapter 3. --- Parallel Split Adaptive System --- p.45 / Chapter 3.1 --- Parallel Form Adaptive Filter --- p.45 / Chapter 3.2 --- Joint Process Estimation with a Split-Path Adaptive Filter --- p.49 / Chapter 3.2.1 --- The New Adaptive System Identification Configuration --- p.53 / Chapter 3.2.2 --- Analysis of the Split-Path System Modeling Structure --- p.57 / Chapter 3.2.3 --- Comparison with the Non-Split Configuration --- p.63 / Chapter 3.2.4 --- Some Notes on Even Filter Order Case --- p.67 / Chapter 3.2.5 --- Simulation Results --- p.70 / Chapter 3.3 --- Autoregressive Modeling with a Split-Path Adaptive Filter --- p.75 / Chapter 3.3.1 --- The Split-Path Adaptive Filter for AR Modeling --- p.79 / Chapter 3.3.2 --- Analysis of the Split-Path AR Modeling Structure --- p.84 / Chapter 3.3.3 --- Comparison with Traditional AR Modeling System --- p.89 / Chapter 3.3.4 --- Selection of Step Sizes --- p.90 / Chapter 3.3.5 --- Some Notes on Odd Filter Order Case --- p.94 / Chapter 3.3.6 --- Simulation Results --- p.94 / Chapter 3.3.7 --- Application to Noise Cancellation --- p.99 / Chapter 3.4 --- Chapter Summary --- p.107 / References --- p.109 / Chapter 4. --- Serial Split Adaptive System --- p.112 / Chapter 4.1 --- Serial Form Adaptive Filter --- p.112 / Chapter 4.2 --- Time Delay Estimation with a Serial Split Adaptive Filter --- p.125 / Chapter 4.2.1 --- Adaptive TDE --- p.125 / Chapter 4.2.2 --- Split Filter Approach to Adaptive TDE --- p.132 / Chapter 4.2.3 --- Analysis of the New TDE System --- p.136 / Chapter 4.2.3.1 --- Least-mean-square Solution --- p.138 / Chapter 4.2.3.2 --- Adaptation Algorithm and Performance Evaluation --- p.142 / Chapter 4.2.4 --- Comparison with Traditional Adaptive TDE Method --- p.147 / Chapter 4.2.5 --- System Implementation --- p.148 / Chapter 4.2.6 --- Simulation Results --- p.148 / Chapter 4.2.7 --- Constrained Adaptation for the New TDE System --- p.156 / Chapter 4.3 --- Chapter Summary --- p.163 / References --- p.165 / Chapter 5. --- Extension of the Split Adaptive Systems --- p.167 / Chapter 5.1 --- The Generalized Parallel Split System --- p.167 / Chapter 5.2 --- The Generalized Serial Split System --- p.170 / Chapter 5.3 --- Comparison between the Parallel and the Serial Split Adaptive System --- p.172 / Chapter 5.4 --- Integration of the Two Forms of Split Predictors --- p.177 / Chapter 5.5 --- Application of the Integrated Split Model to Speech Encoding --- p.179 / Chapter 5.6 --- Chapter Summary --- p.188 / References --- p.139 / Chapter 6. --- Conclusions --- p.191 / References --- p.197

The dynamic structure of the Food Supply Chain (FSC) distinguishes itself from other supply chains. Providing food to customers in a healthy and fresh manner necessitates a significant effort on the part of manufacturers and retailers. In practice, while these partners collaboratively forecast time-sensitive and / or short-life product-groups (e.g. perishable, seasonal, promotional and newly launched products), they confront significant challenges which prevent them from generating accurate forecasts and conducting long-term collaborations. Partners’ challenges are not limited only to the fluctuating demand of time-sensitive product-groups and continuously evolving consumer choices, but are also largely related to their conflicting expectations. Partners’ contradictory expectations mainly occur during the practices of integration, forecasting and information exchange in the FSC. This research specifically focuses on the Collaborative Forecasting (CF) practices in the FSC. However, CF is addressed from the manufacturers’ point of view, when they collaboratively forecast perishable, seasonal, promotional and newly launched products with retailers in the FSC. The underlying reasons are that while there is a paucity of research studying CF from the manufacturers’ standpoint, associated product-groups decay at short notice and their demand is influenced by uncertain consumer behaviour and the dynamic environment of FSC. The aim of the research is to identify factors that have a significant influence on the CF performance. Generating accurate forecasts over the aforementioned product-groups and sustaining long-term collaborations (one year or more) between partners are the two major performance criteria of CF in this research. This research systematically reviews the literature on Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment (CPFR), which combines the supply chain practices of upstream and downstream members by linking their planning, forecasting and replenishment operations. The review also involves the research themes of supply chain integration, forecasting process and information sharing. The reason behind reviewing these themes is that partners’ CF is not limited to forecasting practices, it also encapsulates the integration of chains and bilateral information sharing for accurate forecasts. A single semi-structured interview with a UK based food manufacturer and three online group discussions on the business oriented social networking service of LinkedIn enrich the research with pragmatic and qualitative data, which are coded and analysed via software package QSR NVivo 9. Modifying the results of literature review through the qualitative data makes it possible to develop a rigorous conceptual model and associated hypotheses. Then, a comprehensive online survey questionnaire is developed to be delivered to food manufacturers located in the UK & Ireland, North America and Europe. An exploratory data analysis technique using Partial Least Squares (PLS) guides the research to analyse the online survey questionnaire empirically. The most significant contributions of this research are (i) to extend the body of literature by offering a new CF practice, aiming to improve forecast accuracy and long-term collaborations, and (ii) to provide managerial implications by offering a rigorous conceptual model guiding practitioners to implement the CF practice, for the achievement of accurate forecasts and long-term collaborations. In detail, the research findings primarily emphasise that manufacturers’ interdepartmental integration plays a vital role for successful CF and integration with retailers. Effective integration with retailers encourages manufacturers to conduct stronger CF in the FSC. Partners’ forecasting meetings are another significant factor for CF while the role of forecasters in these meetings is crucial too, implying forecasters’ indirect influence on CF. Complementary to past studies, this research further explores the manufacturers’ various information sources that are significant for CF and which should be shared with retailers. It is also significant to maintain the quality level of information whilst information is shared with retailers. This result accordingly suggests that the quality level of information is obliquely important for CF. There are two major elements that contribute to the literature. Firstly, relying on the particular product-groups in the FSC and examining CF from the manufacturers’ point of view not only closes a pragmatic gap in the literature, but also identifies new areas for future studies in the FSC. Secondly, the CF practice of this research demonstrates the increasing forecast satisfaction of manufacturers over the associated product-groups. Given the subjective forecast expectations of manufacturers, due to organisational objectives and market dynamics, demonstrating the significant impact of the CF practice on the forecast satisfaction leads to generalising its application to the FSC. Practitioners need to avail themselves of this research when they aim to collaboratively generate accurate forecasts and to conduct long-term collaborations over the associated product-groups. The benefits of this research are not limited to the FSC. Manufacturers in other industries can benefit from the research while they collaborate with retailers over similar product-groups having a short shelf life and / or necessitating timely and reliable forecasts. In addition, this research expands new research fields to academia in the areas of the supply chain, forecasting and information exchange, whilst it calls the interest of academics to particular product-groups in the FSC for future research. Nevertheless, this research is limited to dyad manufacturer-retailer forecast collaborations over a limited range of product-groups. This is another opportunity for academics to extend this research to different types of collaborations and products.

Made available in DSpace on 2017-07-21T18:15:15Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Danielle C Carneiro.pdf: 1876247 bytes, checksum: 7f48e10a76efaf1cce89e4163f9f9157 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-05-08 / The present study aims to present and to analyze the stocks and the environmental services provided by forested public areas of downtown area of Ponta Grossa - Paraná, using the emergy analysis. The urban forestry is inserted as one of the main icons in defense to the urban environment, amenable to valuation. In this sense, the emergy analysis is presented as a methodology for environmental valuation that can offer an ecological approach in estimating values. There were accounted 2,293 trees located in 11 squares and 38 streets. For the application of emergy analysis there were considered flows of materials and services from the economy and nature's services. Embedded on the economic flows the equipment and hand labor related to afforestation and as natural flows, rainfall (including solar and wind), soil nutrients, and leaf litter from trees located in squares. To calculate the resulting products of the system there were considered the benefits derived from trees, such as biomass, air humidification and infiltration. From the results it can be seen that the system of afforestation of downtown increases with the age of the trees. The average value, considering the average age of 20 years of a tree, was 6.28E+14 seJ/tree, related to materials and services of the economy values (3.5E+14 seJ/tree) and for the services deriving from nature (2.78E+14 seJ/tree). These two components are considered internal flows of the system that become into benefits that resulted in 3.23E+09 J/tree. When analyzing the transformity for the afforestation system, there was obtained 1.94E+05 sej/J and when converting it into monetary values, there was obtained the average amount of 5,565.16 Brazilian Reais for a single 20-years tree, so it can be accounted how much it is the existence, considering the work of nature and society, of one tree to the system of urban forestry. It’s concluded that from the perspective of the emergy analysis, the nature labor shall be recognized and reinforced and the afforestation of Ponta Grossa downtown can be understood in terms of the valuation of all its attributes. / O presente trabalho teve como objetivo apresentar e analisar os estoques e os serviços ambientais proporcionados pelos espaços públicos arborizados da área central da cidade de Ponta Grossa – Paraná, empregando a análise emergética. A arborização urbana insere-se como um dos principais ícones em defesa do ambiente urbano, passível de valoração. Neste sentido, a análise emergética apresenta-se como uma metodologia de valoração ambiental que consegue oferecer uma aproximação ecológica na estimativa de valores. Foram contabilizadas 2.293 árvores localizadas em 11 praças e 38 vias. Para a aplicação da análise emergética foram considerados os fluxos provindos de materiais e serviços da economia e dos serviços da natureza. Enquadram-se dentro dos fluxos econômicos os equipamentos e mão-de-obra relacionados à arborização, e como fluxos naturais, a pluviosidade local (incluídos energia solar e vento), nutrientes do solo e da serapilheira de árvores de praças. Para calcular os produtos resultantes do sistema foram considerados os benefícios oriundos das árvores, como a biomassa, a umidificação do ar e a infiltração. A partir dos resultados percebe-se que o sistema de arborização da área central da cidade aumenta em função da idade das árvores. O valor médio encontrado, considerando a idade média de 20 anos de uma árvore, foi de 6,28E+14 seJ/árvore, sendo composto pelos valores relativos aos materiais e serviços da economia (3,5E+14seJ/árvore) e pelos serviços provindos da natureza (2,78E+14seJ/árvore). Esses dois componentes são considerados fluxos internos do sistema que se transformam em benefícios que resultaram em 3,23E+09 J/árvore. Ao analisar a transformidade para o sistema de arborização, obteve-se o valor de 1,94E+05 seJ/J e ao converter os valores encontrados em valores monetários, obteve-se o valor médio de R$ 5.565,16 para uma única árvore com 20 anos de idade, ou seja, pôde-se contabilizar quanto vale a existência, considerando o trabalho da natureza e da sociedade, de uma árvore para o sistema de arborização urbana. Conclui-se que a partir da análise emergética, o trabalho da natureza passa a ser reconhecido e reforçado e a arborização do centro de Ponta Grossa pode ser entendida em função da valoração de todos os seus atributos.

Os serviços de emergências hospitalares (EH) desempenham um papel fundamental no sistema de saúde, servindo de porta de entrada para hospitais e fornecendo cuidados para pacientes com lesões e doenças graves. No entanto, as EH em todo o mundo sofrem com o aumento da demanda e superlotação. Múltiplos fatores convergem simultaneamente para resultar nessa superlotação, porém a otimização do gerenciamento do fluxo dos pacientes pode auxiliar na redução do problema. Nesse contexto, o tempo de permanência dos pacientes na EH (TPEH) é consolidado na literatura como indicador de qualidade do fluxo de pacientes. O tema desta dissertação é a previsão e gestão da demanda em EH com alto grau de congestionamento, que é abordado através de três artigos científicos. O objeto de estudo é o Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre (HCPA). No primeiro artigo, são aplicados quatro modelos de previsão da procura por atendimento na EH, avaliando-se a influência de fatores climáticos e de calendário. O segundo artigo utiliza a técnica de regressão por mínimos quadrados parciais (PLS – partial least squares) para previsão de quatro indicadores relacionados ao TPEH para hospitais com alto grau de congestionamento. O tempo médio de permanência (TM) na EH resultou em um modelo preditivo com melhor ajuste, com erro médio absoluto percentual (MAPE - mean absolute percent error) de 5,68%. O terceiro artigo apresenta um estudo de simulação para identificação dos fatores internos do hospital que influenciam o TPEH. O número de exames de tomografias e a taxa de ocupação nas enfermarias clínicas e cirúrgicas (ECC) foram as que mais influenciaram. / Emergency departments (ED) play a key role in the health system, serving as gateway to hospitals and providing care for patients with injuries and serious illnesses. However, EDs worldwide suffer from increased demand and overcrowding. Multiple factors simultaneously converge to result in such overcrowding, and the optimization of patient flow management can help reduce the problem. In this context, the length of stay of patients in ED (LSED) is consolidated in the literature as a patient flow quality indicator. This thesis deals with forecast and demand management in EDs with a high degree of congestion. The subject is covered in three scientific papers, all analyzing data from the Hospital de Clínicas de Porto Alegre’s ED. In the first paper we apply four demand forecasting models to predict demand for service in the ED, evaluating the influence of climatic and calendar factors. The second article uses partial least squares (PLS) regression to predict four indicators related to LSED. The mean length of stay in the ED resulted in a model with the best fit, with mean percent absolute error (MAPE) of 5.68%. The third article presents a simulation study to identify the internal hospital factors influencing LSED. The number of CT exams and the occupancy rate in the clinical and surgical wards were the most influential factors.

Este trabalho avaliou o potencial da aplicação da técnica recursiva dos mínimos quadrados (MQR) para o ajuste em tempo atual dos parâmetros de modelos autorregressivos com variáveis exógenas (ARX), as quais são constituídas pelos níveis de montante para melhorar o desempenho das previsões de níveis fluviais em tempo atual. Três aspectos foram estudados em conjunto: variação do alcance escolhido para a previsão, variação da proporção da área controlada em bacias a montante e variação da área da bacia da seção de previsão. A pesquisa foi realizada em três dimensões principais: a) metodológica (sem recursividade; com recursividade; com recursividade e fator de esquecimento); b) temporal (6 alcances diferentes: 10, 24, 34, 48, 58 e 72 horas); e c) espacial (variação da área controlada da bacia e da área da bacia definida pela seção de previsão). A área de estudo escolhida para essa pesquisa foi a bacia do rio Uruguai com exutório no posto fluviométrico de Uruguaiana (190.000 km²) e as suas sub-bacias embutidas de Itaqui (131.000 km²), Passo São Borja (125.000km²), Garruchos (116.000 km²), Porto Lucena (95.200 km²), Alto Uruguai (82.300 km²) e Iraí (61.900 km²). Os dados de níveis fluviométricos, com leituras diárias às 07:00 e às 17:00 horas, foram fornecidos pela Companhia de Pesquisa de Recursos Minerais (CPRM), sendo utilizados os dados de 1/1/1991 a 30/6/2015. Para a análise de desempenho dos modelos, foi aplicado como estatística de qualidade o coeficiente de Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) e o quantil 0,95 dos erros absolutos (EA(0,95): erro que não foi ultrapassado com a frequência de 0,95). Observou-se que os erros EA(0,95) dos melhores modelos obtidos para cada bacia sempre aumentam com a redução da área controlada, ou seja, a qualidade das previsões diminui com o deslocamento da seção de controle de jusante para montante. O ganho na qualidade das previsões com a utilização dos recursos adaptativos torna-se mais evidente, especialmente quando observam-se os valores de EA(0,95), pois esta estatística é mais sensível, com diferenças maiores em relação ao coeficiente NS. Além disso, este é mais representativo para os erros maiores, que ocorrem justamente durante os eventos de inundações. De modo geral, foi observado que, à medida que diminui a área da bacia, é possível obter previsões com alcances cada vez menores. Porém a influência do tamanho da área controlada de bacias a montante melhora o desempenho de bacias menores quando se observam principalmente os erros EA(0,95). Por outro lado, se a proporção da bacia controlada de montante já é bastante grande, como é o caso das alternativas 1 e 2 utilizadas para previsão em Itaqui (entre 88,5% e 95,4 %, respectivamente), os recursos adaptativos não fazem muita diferença na obtenção de melhores resultados. Todavia, quando se observam bacias com menores áreas de montante controladas, como é o caso de Porto Lucena para a alternativa 2 (65% de área controlada), o ganho no desempenho dos modelos com a utilização dos recursos adaptativos completos (MQR+f.e: mínimos quadrados recursivos com fator de esquecimento) torna-se relevante. / This study evaluated the potential of the application of the recursive least squares technique (RLS) to adjust in real time the model parameters of the autoregressive models with exogenous variables (ARX), which consists of the upstream levels, to improve the performance of the forecasts of river levels in real time. Three aspects were studied jointly: the variation of the lead time chosen for the forecast, the variation in the proportion of controlled area in upstream basins and variation in the area of forecasting section of the basin. The research was conducted in three main dimensions: a) methodological (without recursion; with recursion; with recursion and forgetting factor); b) temporal (6 different lead times: 10, 24, 34, 48, 58 and 72 hours); and c) spatial (variation in the controlled area of the basin and the area of the basin defined by the forecast section). The study area chosen for this research was the Uruguay River basin with its outflow at the river gage station of Uruguaiana (190,000 km²) and its entrenched sub-basins in Itaqui (131,000 km²), Passo São Borja (125,000 km²), Garruchos (116,000 km²), Porto Lucena (95,200 km²), Alto Uruguai (82,300 km²), and Iraí (61,900 km²). The river levels data, with daily readings at 7am and 5pm, were provided by the Company of Mineral Resources Research (CPRM), with the data used from January 1, 1991 to June 30, 2015. We applied the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) and the quantile 0.95 of absolute errors (EA(0,95): error has not been exceeded at the rate of 0.95) for the analysis of models performances. We observed that the errors EA(0.95) of the best models obtained for each basin always increase with the reduction of the controlled area then the quality of the forecasts decreases with displacement of the downstream control section upstream. The gain in quality of the forecasts with the use of adaptive resources becomes more evident especially when the observed values of EA(0.95) as this statistic is more sensitive with greater differences in relation to the Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NS). Moreover, this is most representative for larger errors which occur precisely during flooding events. In general, we observed that, as much as the area of the basin decreases, it is possible to obtain forecasts with smaller lead times, but the influence of the size of the area controlled upstream basins improves the performance of smaller basins when observing, especially the errors EA (0.95). However, if the proportion of the upstream of controlled basin is already quite large - as in the case of the alternatives 1 and 2 used for forecast in Itaqui (between 88.5% and 95.4%, respectively) - the adaptive resources do not differ too much in getting better results. However, when observing basins with smaller areas controlled upstream - as is the case of Porto Lucena to alternative 2 (65% controlled area) - the performance gain of the models with the use of the complete adaptive resources (MQR+f.e.) becomes relevant.

Neste trabalho são propostos métodos para a estimação de parâmetros de motores de indução através do método dos Mínimos Quadrados com medição apenas de tensões, correntes e resistência do estator em um ensaio de partida em vazio. São detalhados os procedimentos para o tratamento dos sinais medidos, além das estimações do fluxo magnético e da velocidade mecânica do motor. Para a estimação dos parâmetros elétricos, são propostos métodos que diferem nos requisitos e no tratamento dos parâmetros como invariantes ou variantes no tempo. Em relação a esse último caso, é empregado um método de estimação de parâmetros por janelas de dados, aplicando um modelo com parâmetros invariantes no tempo localmente em diversas partes do ensaio. São feitas simulações para validar os métodos propostos, e dados de ensaio de três motores de diferentes potências são utilizados para analisar a escala de variação paramétrica durante a partida. É feita uma comparação entre os resultados obtidos com e sem consideração de variação nos parâmetros. / In this work, methods are proposed to estimate the parameters of induction motors through the Least Squares method with the measurement of only voltages, currents and resistance of the stator in a no-load startup test. Procedures are detailed to process the measured signals, as well as to estimate magnetic flux and rotor mechanical speed. In order to estimate the electrical parameters, methods are proposed which differ in their requisites and in the treatment of parameters as time invariant or time-varying. For the latter, a methodology for parameter estimation through data windows is used, applying a model with time invariant parameters locally to different parts of the test. Simulations are made to validate the proposed methodology, and data from tests of three motors with different powers are used to analyze the scale of parameter variation during startup. A comparison is made between the results obtained with and without the consideration of variation in the parameters.

Com este trabalho pretende-se refletir a produção do espaço dos largos, frente ao universo dos espaços públicos contemporâneos. A tese é a de que os espaços públicos dos largos se constituíram como redutos de apropriações alternativas. Assim, divergente da lógica das “revitalizações urbanas”, pautadas na especulação imobiliária, os largos resistiram e consolidaram uma produção do espaço de caráter popular. Além disso, o desenvolvimento do trabalho apresenta uma proposta metodológica que perpassa os conceitos norteadores da Geografia a fim de ampliar e tornar múltipla a apropriação teórica. Assim, através do conceito de paisagem, espaço, território e lugar, os largos trazem a tona uma realidade clandestina e subterrânea da vida social dos espaços públicos. / With this work we intend to reflect the production of the space of the “square”, in front of the universe of contemporary public spaces. The thesis is that the public spaces of the “square” were constituted as redoubts of alternative appropriations. Thus, divergent from the logic of "urban revitalizations", based on real estate speculation, the squares resisted and consolidated a production of the space of popular character. In addition, the development of the work presents a methodological proposal that crosses the guiding concepts of Geography in order to broaden and make multiple the theoretical appropriation. Thus, through the concept of landscape, space, territory and place, the squares” bring to light a clandestine and subterranean reality of the social life in the public spaces.

Thesis. 1977. M.S.--Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science. / MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND ENGINEERING. / Includes bibliographical references. / M.S.