This thesis is an investigation of how subjects behave in an individual binary choice decision task with the option to purchase or observe for free additional information before reaching a decision. In part 1 of this thesis, an investigative study is conducted with the intent to sharpen the view to literature concerning corresponding psychology and economics experiments designed to test decision tasks that involve purchasing and observing information from an imperfect message prior to taking a terminal action choice. This investigative study identifies areas of research that warrant further investigation as well as provides enhancements for execution in the subsequent experiment conducted in Part 2 & 3 of this thesis. In Part 2 & 3, I conduct an experiment to test how subjects behave in an individual binary choice decision task with the option to purchase or observe for free additional information before reaching a final decision. I find that subjects’ behaviour over time converges toward optimal decisions prior to observing an imperfect information signal. However, when subjects observe an imperfect information signal prior to their terminal choice there is greater deviation from optimal behaviour. I find in addition to behaviour that is reflective of a risk-neutral BEU maximizer, status quo bias, over-weighing the informational value of the message received and past statistically independent outcomes influencing future choices. The subjects’ willingness to pay (WTP) to use the additional information gathered from an imperfect message service when making a final decision was on average less than the risk neutral BEU willingness to pay benchmark. Moreover, as the informative value of the message increased, causing the BEU valuation to increase, subjects under-estimated the value of the message signal to a greater degree. Although risk attitudes may have influenced the subjects’ WTP decisions, it does not account for the increased conservative WTP behaviour when information became more valuable. Additionally, the findings from this study suggest that individuals adopt different decision rules depending on both personal attributes (i.e. skillset, gender, experience) and on the context and environment in which the decision task is conducted. / SSHRC grant: Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council via Dr. Bram Cadsby Professor Department of Economics, University of Guelph

With accumulation of sovereign debt in many large OECD countries it seems that attention is heightened on how to manage public resources more effectively. High levels of sovereign debt are partly related to the aftermath of the latest financial crisis, where resolution for many big economies was to intervene and use public resources to put an end to the expansion of the crisis. Public real estate is one of those resources, which’s efficient management has high importance on general public sector efficacy. It seems that governments around the world have a way to go toward efficiency in public real estate management. There seem to be rather wide differences in management practices and quality. This thesis is an attempt to quantify some choices Estonian government could take in terms of its public real estate management. Four different scenarios are compared and Monte Carlo Simulation tool is used for that purpose. Two of the scenarios are related to private sector involvement and two are not. Privatization of public assets does not only mean cashing out for the government. It has wider consequences by introducing market forces where they weren’t before. One of the most important points of interest in this thesis is what effect can market forces and change in incentives have on public real estate management. There can be both, positive and negative effects, but which ones would prevail? The model built during the process of the thesis tries to measure those effects with aggregate net present value and its volatility by looking at 30 years ahead. Simulation analyses is used to vary input variables in the range that seems to be supported by the observations made in the literature and in some cases, where data is not available, also according to more subjective view that of the author’s. As input and their characteristics are different for scenarios, it is of interest to document how do the main outputs, mean NPV and its volatility, vary along with inputs.

No description available.

No description available.

Esta tesis utiliza un enfoque experimental para comprender las interacciones dentro de redes y percibir las decisiones causando inversión de preferencia (IP). El Capítulo 1 experimentalmente introduce comunicaciones no vinculantes a un modelo de producción de un bien costoso, que es no excluible entre personas vinculadas en una red. Los resultados muestran que la comunicación de dirección única no mejora coordinación tanto como la comunicación entre conjuntos máximos independientes. El Capítulo 2 analiza experimentalmente un modelo de conflictos bilaterales integrado en redes, donde los oponentes invierten para ganar recursos. Concluye sobre exceso de inversiones comparado a las predicciones de equilibrio. Por último, el Capítulo 3 mira si el efecto dotación inicial resultado de statu quo conduce IP. Esto es analizado por la interrogación de la buena voluntad de cambiar una lotería dotada para otra o pago seguro. En contrario de las predicciones, resultados demuestra que dotaciones son renunciadas con frecuencia. / This thesis uses an experimental approach in understanding group decisions and interactions in networks and perceiving individual decisions causing preference reversal. Chapter 1 experimentally introduces different communication schemes to a production model of a costly good that is non-excludable among individuals linked within a network. Results show that one-way communication is not as efficient as in earlier literature; yet communication among maximal independent sets enhances coordination. Chapter 2 experimentally analyzes a model of multiple bilateral conflicts embedded in networks where opponents invest in conflict technology to win resources. It concludes on tendency to invest in excess of equilibrium predictions. Finally, Chapter 3 looks at whether preference reversal is driven by an endowment effect explanation originating from status quo bias. This is analyzed through questioning individuals' willingness to exchange their endowed lottery for another lottery or sure money. Contrary to the predictions, results show that individuals most often disclaim their endowments.

Modern energy saving technologies are become increasingly mature, easier to implement and financially profitable. Both the European Union and the Swedish government have directives with goals regarding energy savings for the year 2020 and 2030. Here, making buildings more energy efficient plays a large role as around 40% of the total energy usage in Europe can be related to buildings. Constructing new, nearly zero energy houses is currently very popular, but as a vast majority of all buildings in a country like Sweden are older buildings, built before 1980, a majority of the used energy will come from these buildings. Hence, there is plenty of incentive for carrying out energy saving actions and investments in older buildings. From previous research and interviews with energy consultants, it can be concluded that energy saving actions are not being carried to the extent that is possible. This thesis aims to find out why this is and mainly what the main obstacles are when implementing energy saving solutions in older buildings. A case study, consisting of eight interviews with energy consultants and real estate owners was carried out in order to get an understanding of the current situation and the different stakeholders views on this issue. The results showed that, at least in the represented cases, there is a will among real estate owners for moving forward with energy saving. An understanding has also recently emerged where most real estate owners realize that there are great financial incentives connected to implementing energy saving solutions to current, older buildings. However, increased will of making a change has not yet resulted in a majority of buildings having installed energy saving solutions. One factor for this is that each building is its own individual case and therefore needs to be handled individually due to different conditions and are therefore suitable for different energy saving actions. Other factors include lack of technical and financial understanding among some real estate owners, slow decision making processes and ownership types. The research explores theories related to decision makings to provide a comprehensive overview regarding the current situation of energy saving in Sweden, as well as a contribution to the theoretical literature regarding decision making / Modern teknik inom energibesparing blir allt mer mognare, lättare att implementera och finansiellt lönsamt. Både den europeiska unionen och den svenska regeringen har direktiv med mål för energibesparing för år 2020 och 2030. Här spelar byggnader en viktig roll, då byggnader står för ca 40 % av den totala energianvändningen i Europa. Att bygga nya, nära noll energi byggnader är för närvarande väldigt populärt. Men i ett land som Sverige, där majoriteten av alla byggnader är äldre byggnader, kommer majoriteten av energianvändningen fortfarande från dessa. Därav finns det stora incitament till att genomföra energieffektiviserande åtgärder på äldre byggnader i Sverige. Från tidigare studier och intervjuer med energikonsulter kan det fastslås att energibesparande åtgärder ej genomförs i den grad som det är möjligt. Målet med denna rapport är att utröna varför det är så samt vilka huvudsakliga hinder som kan relateras till energibesparing i äldre byggnader. För att få en överblick av den befintliga situationen samt hur olika intressenter ser på denna fråga genomfördes en fallstudie bestående av åtta intervjuer med energikonsulter och fastighetsägare. Resultaten från studien pekade på att det finns en vilja bland fastighetsägare att gå vidare med energibesparande åtgärder. På senare tid har även en förståelse vuxit fram bland fastighetsägare där man inser att det även finns stora finansiella incitament med att implementera energibesparande åtgärder på äldre byggnader. Detta har dock ännu ej lett till att energibesparande åtgärder genomförts på en majoritet av befintliga byggnader. En anledning till detta är att varje byggnad måste hanteras individuellt då alla har olika förutsättningar och därmed lämpar sig för olika energibesparande lösningar. Andra faktorer inkluderar teknisk och ekonomisk kunskapsbrist bland vissa fastighetsägare, långsamma beslutsprocesser och ägarstrukturer. Studien nyttjar teorier relaterade till beslutsfattning för att ge läsaren en överblick av den befintliga situationen kring energibesparing i Sverige. I tillägg bidrar studien till den teoretiska litteraturen om beslutsfattning.

This thesis consists of three independent papers. They are put in reverse chronological order according to when they were initiated. The first paper, which is a joint work with Özgür Evren, extends the standard rational choice framework with the option to postpone the act of selecting an alternative. In that paper, we propose an axiomatic model of choice over risky prospects that restricts the classical rationality axioms solely to those instances in which the decision maker does not defer. The cardinal approach we follow allows us to identify the preference relation of the decision maker over lotteries, even if the choice data is very scarce due to deferral. Moreover, we also derive the value of deferring choice from a given set of options, which turns out to be an affine utility function over choice sets. At each choice situation, the decision maker compares the utility of each available alternative with that of deferral so as to decide on opting for an alternative immediately. The second paper is a model of status quo bias with choice avoidance. It describes the choice behavior of an otherwise standard decision maker whose choices are affected by the presence of a status quo alternative. The status quo emerges as a temporary choice, which may be reversed upon arrival of new (introspective or objective) information, or upon finding new alternatives. The third paper considers the network formation problem from a matching perspective. In that paper, agents want to link with each other and each has preferences over the subsets of others. We consider various solution concepts regarding the stability of a matching between the agents, establish relations between these concepts under several preference restrictions, and provide sufficient conditions for these solutions to be nonempty. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, 2011