Hier werden einige Ansätze dargestellt, um das Schadenspotential von Stürmen abzuschätzen. Dabei sollen auch Aussagen zur Größenordnung des Schadens bei sehr unwahrscheinlichen Ereignissen gemacht werden. Die Naturgefahr Sturm wird getrennt nach außertropischen Zyklonen und Tornados betrachtet. Im ersten Fall werden empirische Verteilungsfunktion und mittels einer Markov Methode erzeugte synthetische Windreihen zur Abschätzung extremer Windgeschwindigkeiten genutzt. Eine Abschätzung der Böen wird durchgeführt und der Schaden mit Hilfe einer einfachen Beziehung zwischen Böengeschwindigkeit und Schaden ermittelt. Für die Abschätzung des Schadens im Falle eines Tornados werden von Dotzek angegebene Wahrscheinlichkeiten für Tornados in Deutschland und die Definition einer Tornadointensitätsskala als Schadensfunktion verwendet. / Some conceptions were explained, to estimate the risk of storm caused damages. The amount of damage by unlikely events is assessed. The natural hazard storm is considered separately for extratropical cyclones and tornadoes. Empirical distribution functions and synthetic series of wind speeds generated by a Markov chain model are used to derive the extreme wind speeds for cyclones. An estimation of gust speeds are performed and a simple relationship between gust speed and damage is applied. The likelihood of tornadoes to occur in Germany provided by Dotzek and the definition of an intensity scale are used to estimate the damage in the case of tornadoes.

Home to the world’s longest coastline, Canada has experienced devastating economic and social from coastal flooding events. While there have been a variety of mitigation methods employed over the years to increase a community’s resistance to coastal hazards, it is unrealistic to think that there exists a solution to guarantee a community’s safety under all possible flood hazards. Instead, the community’s efforts to raise their resistance to flood hazards should be augmented with careful planning and management to increase a community’s resilience to flood hazards, allowing them to recover quickly after a natural disaster. The first step in elevating a community’s resilience is to better understand the expected hazards that it may experience. This thesis presents two unique case studies to better understand the flooding hazards present on the Canadian coastline. A large-scale numerical model that accounts for the presence of ice was developed to investigate storm surges in Canada’s western Arctic. It was found that the quality of the climatic forcing data used, ERA5, was poor in capturing peak wind speeds, but could be compensated for by using elevated wind drag coefficients. The use of non-traditional high-water marks such as driftwood lines were validated and were shown to significantly alter expected flood return periods compared to the return periods estimated from only the incomplete tide gauge measurements present on the Arctic coastline. The second case study extends the results of a tsunami hydrodynamic simulation on Canada’s Pacific coastline through a life safety assessment. The performance between an agent-based and GIS-based approach to modelling tsunami evacuation were directly compared and were shown to yield different magnitudes in fatality rate and facility demand, but similar trends. Both models agreed on a mitigation option that can significantly reduce the loss of life during a tsunami.

The relationship between rainfall and runoff was examined for twelve selected Arizona watersheds. Expedient runoff volume model coefficients and runoff curve number model parameters were examined using standardized structure, with modifications to adjust the model for small initial abstractions and large watershed storage capacity. Forest-land management practices were examined for their effects on curve number coefficients. The effects of rainfall characteristics were also evaluated with respect to changes they induce in curve number populations. Evaluations included a runoff fraction, a simple multiplier of storm volume to produce runoff volume. The accuracy of this model is promising for more permeable watersheds.

Graft Versus Host Disease (GVHD) is a major inflammatory complication of hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT). Such transplantations are lifesaving in treating certain conditions, such as acute myeloid leukemia, acute lymphocytic leukemia, myelodysplastic syndrome, aplastic anemia, and thalassemia. However, the subsequent presentation of GVHD can pose a lethal threat, placing the patient’s life at risk, once again. The inflammatory response of the graft’s adaptive immunity towards the host’s native cells in GVHD is said to trigger a cytokine storm. Despite its widespread use both colloquially and in the medical field, criteria for “cytokine storms” do not exist. For this reason, a meta-analysis is being conducted that examines various cytokine levels of several different disease conditions, including acute respiratory distress syndrome, chimeric antigen receptor T cells, Crohn’s disease, SARS CoV-2, rheumatoid arthritis, sepsis, and graft versus host disease. The purpose of this study is to analyze a subset of data within this larger meta-analysis, specifically interleukin-6 (IL-6) levels in GVHD. Herein, I discuss the role of IL-6 in the pathogenesis of GVHD, examine the levels of IL-6 in varying stages of GVHD, and propose future directions for using IL-6 inhibition as a treatment for GVHD.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第20680号 / 工博第4377号 / 新制||工||1680(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院工学研究科社会基盤工学専攻 / (主査)教授 平石 哲也, 教授 中北 英一, 准教授 森 信人 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

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Title: Knowledge of the Principles of Public Behaviour in Emergencies among Ninth Grade Pupils of Primary Schools in Prague and Litoměřice Objectives: The diploma thesis aims to determine level of knowledge of principles of public behaviour in emergencies among ninth grade pupils in Prague and Litoměřice, specifically floods, chemical accident, fires and storms. Methods: compilation, survey questionnaire, analysis Results: Knowledge of the Principles of Public Behaviour in Emergencies among Ninth Grade Pupils were above average. Success rate of right answers was detected at 76 %. The knowledge of this specific field is sufficient due to overview teaching. At only three questions the answers did not exceed 50 %. As a weak spots can be indicated knowledge about general warning and principles during chamical accident. In comparation Litoměřice had better results by two percentage points than Prague. Men did less wrong answers than women by 4 %. Keywords: flood, fire, chemical accident, storm, evacuation, questionnaire

<div>Rain drop size distributions (DSDs) in severe convective storms are highly variable in time and space. DSDs can be derived from polarimetric radar observations at high spatiotemporal resolution but these observations are often lacking near the surface owing to radar horizon issues. Disdrometers provide “ground-truth” measurements and validation of radar-derived DSDs but are by nature limited point measurements. Moreover, substantial evolution of the DSD can occur between the lowest radar elevation angle and the surface. Recent studies have shown that hydrometeor size sorting (HSS) is an important and even dominant process contributing to DSD evolution in severe storms; many physical processes such as the strength of the updraft, transient effects, and storm-relative mean winds are contributing factors to continued size sorting. In this study, we focus on strong storm-relative mean winds that induce sustained size sorting owing to the different residence times of hydrometeors of different sizes as they fall in severe storms. The resulting differential advection leads to a distinct horizontal spread of hydrometeors of different sizes at the bottom of a given layer. The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of size sorting on DSD evolution from the radar level to the surface. To accomplish this, we develop and apply a raindrop trajectory model to compute the evolution of DSDs between radar observations aloft and the surface. For simplicity and to isolate the effects of size sorting, we neglect processes such as breakup, collection, and evaporation, and assume a horizontally homogeneous wind profile. We use disdrometer and radar data, which measure DSDs at the surface and provide the observed quantities aloft, respectively. The disdrometer data was collected from portable disdrometers as a collaboration between Purdue University, University of Oklahoma, University of Massachusetts, and the National Severe Storms Laboratory during the VORTEX-SE 2017 field campaign. NEXRAD data from KHTX Huntsville, AL and KGWX Columbus Air Force Base, MS was retrieved from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).</div><div><br></div><div>We evaluate three separate cases, a tornadic QLCS on 30 April 2017, a cluster storm on 27 March 2017, and a squall line on 25 March 2017. After the radar data is pre-processed, we retrieve the DSDs from the radar by assuming a gamma distribution and discretize them into PARSIVEL bins to produce a gridded dataset of DSDs. We then apply the raindrop trajectory model to compute the DSDs at the surface which are then compared directly with disdrometer observations. Analysis and comparisons from all cases yield similar results in that-the sorted radar DSDs at the surface are overall closer to the disdrometer observations than the original radar DSDs aloft. Results also show that the spatial variation of DSDs is higher at the surface due to size sorting by the storm-relative mean winds.</div><div><br></div>

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