Semi-natural grasslands, which are a declining and fragmented habitat in Europe, contain a high biodiversity, and are therefore of interest to conservation. This thesis examines how plant diversity is influenced by the landscape context, and how plant and fungal diversity can be targeted by practical conservation using indicator species and congruence between species groups. Reproduction and recruitment of the dioecious herb Antennaria dioica was also investigated, providing a case study on how fragmentation and habitat degradation may affect grassland plants. Grassland size and heterogeneity were of greater importance for plant diversity in semi-natural grassland, than present or historical connectivity to other grasslands, or landscape characteristics. Larger grasslands were more heterogeneous than smaller grasslands, being the likely reason for the species-area relationship. A detailed study on A. dioica discovered that sexual reproduction and recruitment may be hampered due to skewed sex-ratios. Sex-ratios were more skewed in small populations, suggesting that dioecious plants are likely to be particularly sensitive to reduced grassland size and fragmentation. A study on indicators of plant species richness, used in a recent survey of remaining semi-natural grasslands in Sweden, revealed several problems. A high percentage of all indicator species were missed by the survey, removing an otherwise significant correlation between indicator species and plant species richness. Also, a null model showed that the chosen indicator species did not perform significantly better than species chosen at random from the available species pool, questioning the selection of the indicators in the survey. Diversity patterns of the threatened fungal genus Hygrocybe were not congruent with plant species richness or composition. Plants are thus a poor surrogate group for Hygrocybe fungi, and probably also for other grassland fungi. Implications from this thesis are that conservation of semi-natural grasslands should target several species groups, and that an appropriate scale for plant conservation may be local rather than regional.

In this work the problem of calibrating Flush Air Data Sensing (FADS) has been addressed. The inverse problem of extracting freestream wind speed and angle of attack from pressure measurements has been solved. The aim of this work was to develop machine learning and statistical tools to optimize design and calibration of FADS systems. Experimental and Computational Fluid Dynamics (EFD and CFD) solve the forward problem of determining the pressure distribution given the wind velocity profile and bluff body geometry. In this work three ways are presented in which machine learning techniques can improve calibration of FADS systems. First, a scattered data approximation scheme, called Sequential Function Approximation (SFA) that successfully solved the current inverse problem was developed. The proposed scheme is a greedy and self-adaptive technique that constructs reliable and robust estimates without any user-interaction. Wind speed and direction prediction algorithms were developed for two FADS problems. One where pressure sensors are installed on a surface vessel and the other where sensors are installed on the Runway Assisted Landing Site (RALS) control tower. Second, a Tikhonov regularization based data-model fusion technique with SFA was developed to fuse low fidelity CFD solutions with noisy and sparse wind tunnel data. The purpose of this data model fusion approach was to obtain high fidelity, smooth and noiseless flow field solutions by using only a few discrete experimental measurements and a low fidelity numerical solution. This physics based regularization technique gave better flow field solutions compared to smoothness based solutions when wind tunnel data is sparse and incomplete. Third, a sequential design strategy was developed with SFA using Active Learning techniques from the machine learning theory and Optimal Design of Experiments from statistics for regression and classification problems. Uncertainty Sampling was used with SFA to demonstrate the effectiveness of active learning versus passive learning on a cavity flow classification problem. A sequential G-optimal design procedure was also developed with SFA for regression problems. The effectiveness of this approach was demonstrated on a simulated problem and the above mentioned FADS problem.

Certain provisions of the Assisted Human Reproduction Act 2004 appear to have been enacted as a legislative response to the objections to surrogacy noted by the Royal Commission on New Reproductive Technologies in 1993. However, the legislation may not be successful in tackling concerns generated by recent developments in assisted reproductive technologies. This thesis identifies the shortcomings of the AHRA provisions that impact its ability to effectively regulate the surrogate act in Canada. The discussion suggests shifting the existing regulatory framework away from the imposition of legislative prohibitions on commercial surrogacy and towards a model that is more effective in dealing with the current reality of the surrogate arrangement. Upon consideration of regulatory regimes in Israel and the United Kingdom, a framework for surrogacy is suggested that balances the reproductive rights of the individuals who participate in such an arrangement, while minimizing the potentially exploitative aspects of the surrogate act.

Certain provisions of the Assisted Human Reproduction Act 2004 appear to have been enacted as a legislative response to the objections to surrogacy noted by the Royal Commission on New Reproductive Technologies in 1993. However, the legislation may not be successful in tackling concerns generated by recent developments in assisted reproductive technologies. This thesis identifies the shortcomings of the AHRA provisions that impact its ability to effectively regulate the surrogate act in Canada. The discussion suggests shifting the existing regulatory framework away from the imposition of legislative prohibitions on commercial surrogacy and towards a model that is more effective in dealing with the current reality of the surrogate arrangement. Upon consideration of regulatory regimes in Israel and the United Kingdom, a framework for surrogacy is suggested that balances the reproductive rights of the individuals who participate in such an arrangement, while minimizing the potentially exploitative aspects of the surrogate act.

Transportation safety has been recognized as a public health issue worldwide, consequently, transportation researchers and practitioners have been attempting to provide adequate safety performance for the various transportation components and facilities to all road users given the usually scarce resources available. Safety engineers have been trying to make decisions affecting safety based on the knowledge extracted from different types of statistical models and/or observational before-after analysis. It is generally recognized that this type of factual knowledge is not easily obtained either statistically or empirically. Despite the intuitive link between road safety and observed crashes, a good understanding of the sequence of events prior to the crash can provide a more rational basis for the development of engineering countermeasures. The development of more comprehensive mechanistic models for safety assessment is heavily dependent on detailed vehicle tracking data that is not readily available. The potential of microscopic simulation in traffic safety and traffic conflict analysis has gained increasing interest mostly due to recent developments in human behaviour modelling and real-time vehicle data acquisition. In this thesis, we present a systematic investigation of the use of existing behavioural microscopic simulation models in short-term road safety studies. Initially, a microscopic framework is introduced to identify potentially unsafe vehicle interactions for different vehicle movements based on three types of traffic behaviour protocols: car-following, lane change and gap acceptance. This microscopic model for safety assessment applies a safety performance measure based on pairwise comparisons of spacing and speed differential between adjacent vehicles and individual braking power in real-time. A calibration/validation procedure using factorial analysis is presented to select best model input parameters for this safety performance measure by using high resolution vehicle tracking data. The ability of the proposed safety performance measure to reflect real-life observed high-risk vehicular interactions is explored in three intuitive tests using observed crash data. Finally, the usefulness of the model is illustrated through its application to investigate the safety implications of two different geometric and operational traffic strategies. The overall results indicate that, notwithstanding the fact that actual behavioural microscopic algorithms have not been developed strictly to model crashes, they are able to replicate several factors directly related to high risk situations that could lead to crashes with reasonable accuracy. With the existing upward trend in computing power, modelling techniques and increasing availability of detailed vehicle tracking data, it is likely that safety studies will be carried out using a more mechanistic and inclusive approach based on disruptive driving behaviour rather than ultimate unpredictable and heavily restrictive crash events.

Modern societies increasingly depend on the reliable functioning of urban infrastructure systems in the aftermath of natural disasters such as hurricane and earthquake events. Apart from a sizable capital for maintenance and expansion, the reliable performance of infrastructure systems under extreme hazards also requires strategic planning and effective resource assignment. Hence, efficient system reliability and risk assessment methods are needed to provide insights to system stakeholders to understand infrastructure performance under different hazard scenarios and accordingly make informed decisions in response to them. Moreover, efficient assignment of limited financial and human resources for maintenance and retrofit actions requires new methods to identify critical system components under extreme events. Infrastructure systems such as highway bridge networks are spatially distributed systems with many linked components. Therefore, network models describing them as mathematical graphs with nodes and links naturally apply to study their performance. Owing to their complex topology, general system reliability methods are ineffective to evaluate the reliability of large infrastructure systems. This research develops computationally efficient methods such as a modified Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations algorithm for network reliability, and proposes a network reliability framework (BRAN: Bridge Reliability Assessment in Networks) that is applicable to large and complex highway bridge systems. Since the response of system components to hazard scenario events are often correlated, the BRAN framework enables accounting for correlated component failure probabilities stemming from different correlation sources. Failure correlations from non-hazard sources are particularly emphasized, as they potentially have a significant impact on network reliability estimates, and yet they have often been ignored or only partially considered in the literature of infrastructure system reliability. The developed network reliability framework is also used for probabilistic risk assessment, where network reliability is assigned as the network performance metric. Risk analysis studies may require prohibitively large number of simulations for large and complex infrastructure systems, as they involve evaluating the network reliability for multiple hazard scenarios. This thesis addresses this challenge by developing network surrogate models by statistical learning tools such as random forests. The surrogate models can replace network reliability simulations in a risk analysis framework, and significantly reduce computation times. Therefore, the proposed approach provides an alternative to the established methods to enhance the computational efficiency of risk assessments, by developing a surrogate model of the complex system at hand rather than reducing the number of analyzed hazard scenarios by either hazard consistent scenario generation or importance sampling. Nevertheless, the application of surrogate models can be combined with scenario reduction methods to improve even further the analysis efficiency. To address the problem of prioritizing system components for maintenance and retrofit actions, two advanced metrics are developed in this research to rank the criticality of system components. Both developed metrics combine system component fragilities with the topological characteristics of the network, and provide rankings which are either conditioned on specific hazard scenarios or probabilistic, based on the preference of infrastructure system stakeholders. Nevertheless, they both offer enhanced efficiency and practical applicability compared to the existing methods. The developed frameworks for network reliability evaluation, risk assessment, and component prioritization are intended to address important gaps in the state-of-the-art management and planning for infrastructure systems under natural hazards. Their application can enhance public safety by informing the decision making process for expansion, maintenance, and retrofit actions for infrastructure systems.

Engineering aircraft systems is a complex task. Therefore models and computer simulations are needed to test functions and behaviors of non existing systems, reduce testing time and cost, reduce the risk involved and to detect problems early which reduce the amount of implementation errors. At the section Vehicle Simulation and Thermal Analysis at Saab Aeronautics in Linköping every basic aircraft system is designed and simulated, for example the fuel system. Currently 2-dimensional rectangular blocks are used in the simulation model to represent the fuel tanks. However, this is too simplistic to allow a more detailed analysis. The model needs to be extended with a more complex description of the tank geometry in order to get a more accurate model. This report explains the different steps in the developed methodology for combining 3-dimensional geometry models of any fuel tank created in CATIA with dynamic simulation of the fuel system in Dymola. The new 3-dimensional representation of the tank in Dymola should be able to calculate fuel surface location during simulation of a maneuvering aircraft.  The first step of the methodology is to create a solid model of the fuel contents in the tank. Then the area of validity for the model has to be specified, in this step all possible orientations of the fuel acceleration vector within the area of validity is generated. All these orientations are used in the automated volume analysis in CATIA. For each orientation CATIA splits the fuel body in a specified number of volumes and records the volume, the location of the fuel surface and the location of the center of gravity. This recorded data is then approximated with the use of radial basis functions implemented in MATLAB. In MATLAB a surrogate model is created which are then implemented in Dymola. In this way any fuel surface location and center of gravity can be calculated in an efficient way based on the orientation of the fuel acceleration vector and the amount of fuel. The new 3-dimensional tank model is simulated in Dymola and the results are compared with measures from the model in CATIA and with the results from the simulation of the old 2-dimensional tank model. The results shows that the 3-dimensional tank gives a better approximation of reality and that there is a big improvement compared with the 2-dimensional tank model. The downside is that it takes approximately 24 hours to develop this model. / Att utveckla ett nytt flygplanssystem är en väldigt komplicerad arbetsuppgift. Därför används modeller och simuleringar för att testa icke befintliga system, minska utvecklingstiden och kostnaderna, begränsa riskerna samt upptäcka problem tidigt och på så sätt minska andelen implementerade fel. Vid sektionen Vehicle Simulation and Thermal Analysis på Saab Aeronautics i Linköping designas och simuleras varje grundflygplanssystem, ett av dessa system är bränslesystemet. För närvarande används 2-dimensionella rätblock i simuleringsmodellen för att representera bränsletankarna, vilket är en väldigt grov approximation. För att kunna utföra mer detaljerade analyser behöver modellerna utökas med en bättre geometrisk beskrivning av bränsletankarna. Denna rapport går igenom de olika stegen i den framtagna metodiken för att kombinera 3- dimensionella tankmodeller skapade i CATIA med dynamisk simulering av bränslesystemet i Dymola. Den nya 3-dimensionella representationen av en tank i Dymola bör kunna beräkna bränsleytans läge under en simulering av ett manövrerande flygplan. Första steget i metodiken är att skapa en solid modell av bränslet som finns i tanken. Därefter specificeras modellens giltighetsområde och alla tänkbara riktningar hos accelerationsvektorn som påverkar bränslet genereras, dessa används sedan i den automatiserade volymanalysen i CATIA.  För varje riktning delar CATIA upp bränslemodellen i ett bestämt antal delar och registrerar volymen, bränsleytans läge samt tyngdpunktens position för varje del. Med hjälp av radiala basfunktioner som har implementerats i MATLAB approximeras dessa data och en surrogatmodell tas fram, denna implementeras sedan i Dymola. På så sätt kan bränsleytans och tyngdpunktens läge beräknas på ett effektivt sätt, baserat på riktningen hos bränslets accelerationsvektor samt mängden bränsle i tanken. Den nya 3-dimensionella tankmodellen simuleras i Dymola och resultaten jämförs med mätningar utförda i CATIA samt med resultaten från den gamla simuleringsmodellen. Resultaten visar att den 3-dimensionella tankmodellen ger en mycket bättre representation av verkligheten och att det är en stor förbättring jämfört med den 2-dimensionella representationen. Nackdelen är att det tar ungefär 24 timmar att få fram denna 3-dimensionella representation.

Transportation safety has been recognized as a public health issue worldwide, consequently, transportation researchers and practitioners have been attempting to provide adequate safety performance for the various transportation components and facilities to all road users given the usually scarce resources available. Safety engineers have been trying to make decisions affecting safety based on the knowledge extracted from different types of statistical models and/or observational before-after analysis. It is generally recognized that this type of factual knowledge is not easily obtained either statistically or empirically. Despite the intuitive link between road safety and observed crashes, a good understanding of the sequence of events prior to the crash can provide a more rational basis for the development of engineering countermeasures. The development of more comprehensive mechanistic models for safety assessment is heavily dependent on detailed vehicle tracking data that is not readily available. The potential of microscopic simulation in traffic safety and traffic conflict analysis has gained increasing interest mostly due to recent developments in human behaviour modelling and real-time vehicle data acquisition. In this thesis, we present a systematic investigation of the use of existing behavioural microscopic simulation models in short-term road safety studies. Initially, a microscopic framework is introduced to identify potentially unsafe vehicle interactions for different vehicle movements based on three types of traffic behaviour protocols: car-following, lane change and gap acceptance. This microscopic model for safety assessment applies a safety performance measure based on pairwise comparisons of spacing and speed differential between adjacent vehicles and individual braking power in real-time. A calibration/validation procedure using factorial analysis is presented to select best model input parameters for this safety performance measure by using high resolution vehicle tracking data. The ability of the proposed safety performance measure to reflect real-life observed high-risk vehicular interactions is explored in three intuitive tests using observed crash data. Finally, the usefulness of the model is illustrated through its application to investigate the safety implications of two different geometric and operational traffic strategies. The overall results indicate that, notwithstanding the fact that actual behavioural microscopic algorithms have not been developed strictly to model crashes, they are able to replicate several factors directly related to high risk situations that could lead to crashes with reasonable accuracy. With the existing upward trend in computing power, modelling techniques and increasing availability of detailed vehicle tracking data, it is likely that safety studies will be carried out using a more mechanistic and inclusive approach based on disruptive driving behaviour rather than ultimate unpredictable and heavily restrictive crash events.

Rotorcraft optimization is a challenging problem due to its conflicting requirements among many disciplines and highly coupled design variables affecting the overall design. Also, the design process for a composite rotor blade is often ambiguous because of its design space. Furthermore, analytical tools do not produce acceptable results compared with flight test when it comes to aerodynamics and aeroelasticity unless realistic models are used, which leads to excessive computer time per iteration. To comply these requirements, computationally efficient yet realistic tools for rotorcraft analysis, such as VABS and DYMORE were used as analysis tools. These tools decompose a three-dimensional problem into a two-dimensional cross-sectional and a one-dimensional beam analysis. Also, to eliminate the human interaction between iterations, a previously VABS-ANSYS macro was modified and automated. The automated tool shortened the computer time needed to generate the VABS input file for each analysis from hours to seconds. MATLAB was used as the wrapper tool to integrate VABS, DYMORE and the VABS-ANSYS macro into the methodology. This methodology uses Genetic Algorithm and gradient-based methods as optimization schemes. The baseline model is the rotor system of generic Georgia Tech Helicopter (GTH), which is a three-bladed, soft-in-plane, bearingless rotor system. The resulting methodology is a two-level optimization, global and local. Previous studies showed that when stiffnesses are used as design variables in optimization, these values act as if they are independent and produce design requirements that cannot be achieved by local-level optimization. To force design variables at the global level to stay within the feasible design space of the local level, a surrogate model was adapted into the methodology. For the surrogate model, different ``design of experiments" (DOE) methods were tested to find the most computationally efficient DOE method. The response surface method (RSM) and Kriging were tested for the optimization problem. The results show that using the surrogate model speeds up the optimization process and the Kriging model shows superior performance over RSM models. As a result, the global-level optimizer produces requirements that the local optimizer can achieve.

Net pay (NP) and net-to-gross ratio (NGR) are often crucial quantities to characterize a reservoir and assess the amount of hydrocarbons in place. Numerous methods in the industry have been developed to evaluate NP and NGR, depending on the intended purposes. These methods usually involve the use of cut-off values of one or more surrogate variables to discriminate non-reservoir from reservoir rocks. This study investigates statistical issues related to the selection of such cut-off values by considering the specific case of using porosity () as the surrogate. Four methods are applied to permeability-porosity datasets to estimate porosity cut-off values. All the methods assume that a permeability cut-off value has been previously determined and each method is based on minimizing the prediction error when particular assumptions are satisfied. The results show that delineating NP and evaluating NGR require different porosity cut-off values. In the case where porosity and the logarithm of permeability are joint normally distributed, NP delineation requires the use of the Y-on-X regression line to estimate the optimal porosity cut-off while the reduced major axis (RMA) line provides the optimal porosity cut-off value to evaluate NGR. Alternatives to RMA and regression lines are also investigated, such as discriminant analysis and a data-oriented method using a probabilistic analysis of the porosity-permeability crossplots. Joint normal datasets are generated to test the ability of the methods to predict accurately the optimal porosity cut-off value for sampled sub datasets. These different methods have been compared to one another on the basis of the bias, standard error and robustness of the estimates. A set of field data has been used from the Travis Peak formation to test the performance of the methods. The conclusions of the study have been confirmed when applied to field data: as long as the initial assumptions concerning the distribution of data are verified, it is recommended to use the Y-on-X regression line to delineate NP while either the RMA line or discriminant analysis should be used for evaluating NGR. In the case where the assumptions on data distribution are not verified, the quadrant method should be used.