Un projet est un effort temporaire et unique entrepris pour fournir un résultat. Ce résultat est toujours unchangement pour l'organisation, qu’il prenne effet dans ses processus, sa performance, ses produits ouservices. De nombreux manques ont été détectés tant dans le monde industriel que dans le mondeacadémique dans la mesure où les paramètres usuels (délai, coût, qualité) ne sont clairement plus suffisantspour permettre de décrire et gérer le projet à un instant t. Dès lors, les méthodes actuelles ne sont plussuffisantes pour répondre aux enjeux grandissant de la complexité projet, source de nombreux risques.Cette thèse de doctorat propose de penser le management de projet dans ces contextes de complexité encherchant à comprendre comment des aspects liés à la complexité peuvent être intégrés plus efficacementdans les pratiques de management de projet, et plus particulièrement dans le processus de management desrisques projets. Elle commence par définir les concepts nécessaires puis vise à décrire dans un premiertemps ce qu’est la complexité projet grâce à l’élaboration d’un référentiel de complexité projet. Ceréférentiel est ensuite raffiné à travers la réalisation d’une étude Delphi internationale. Ce référentiel raffinépermet alors de construire une structure hiérarchique de type Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) et d’endéduire un indicateur relatif de complexité projet. En pratique cette approche permet notammentd’identifier les projets les plus complexes à l’intérieur d’un portefeuille ou les zones les plus complexes àl’intérieur d’un projet, afin d’assister le management de projets complexes. Ensuite, ce rapport a l’ambitionde décrire les conséquences de la complexité projet et de comprendre en quoi les méthodes actuelles demanagement des risques projet ne permettent pas de prendre en compte convenablement certains effets dela complexité. Cette thèse de doctorat propose alors deux approches innovantes pour assister lemanagement des risques des projets complexes. La première est une approche fondée sur la penséesystémique et qui repose sur l’introduction du concept de vulnérabilité projet. La seconde se fonde quant àelle principalement sur une approche analytique dont l’ambition est de regrouper les risques en fonction deleur niveau d’interaction potentielle (en termes de possibilité de relation de cause à effet) afin de faciliter lacoordination. L’ensemble des résultats est testé et illustré grâce à des études de cas diverses (dans lessecteurs de l’industrie automobile, pharmaceutique, du spectacle et de la construction). / A project is a temporary and unique endeavour undertaken to deliver a result. This result is always a changein the organization, whatever it is in its processes, performance, products or services. Limits and lacks havebeen detected in research as well as in industry about the project predictability, since usual parameters(time, cost and quality) are clearly not sufficient to describe properly the complete situation at a given time.As a whole, current methods have shown their limits, since they cannot face anymore the stakes of evergrowing project complexity, which is an ever growing source of project risks. This Ph.D. thesis aims atthinking project management in the age of complexity and understand how complexity aspects can beintegrated into project management practices, particularly in the case of the project risk managementprocess. After defining concepts, this thesis aims at describing project complexity thanks to the elaborationof a project complexity framework, which is refined thanks to an international Delphi study. This refinedframework is then the basis of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) hierarchical structure which permits tobuild a relative project complexity index in order to assist decision-making. For all practical purposes, itnotably permits to focus on the most complex projects within a portfolio or on the most complex zones of aproject in order to assist complex project management. Then, after describing the consequences of projectcomplexity and understanding the limits of existing project risk management processes to cope with somecomplexity-related aspects, this Ph.D. thesis proposes two innovative approaches to assist complex projectrisk management. The first one is based on a systems approach through the introduction of the concept ofproject vulnerability. The second one is mainly based on an analytical approach which aims at clusteringproject risks according to the strength of their interactions (in terms of possible cause-consequence link).Diverse industrial case studies permit to test these proposals (automotive, pharmaceutical, entertainmentand construction industries).

Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T12:34:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / Made available in DSpace on 2014-10-09T14:04:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 / O conceito de qualidade dos alimentos, na visão do consumidor, reflete a satisfação de características como sabor, aroma, aparência, embalagem e disponibilidade. Fatores econômicos e sociais como o custo e hábitos alimentares geralmente também têm influência sobre a escolha do produto. A irradiação é uma técnica eficiente na conservação dos alimentos, pois reduz as perdas naturais causadas pelos processos fisiológicos, além de eliminar ou reduzir microrganismos, parasitas e pragas, sem causar qualquer prejuízo ao alimento, tornando-os mais seguros ao consumidor; porém, pode haver aumento no custo dos alimentos. Pesquisas apontam que a praticidade é uma característica já incorporada pelo consumidor, o preço pode ser um fator de restrição à popularização do produto irradiado, embora alguns consumidores considerem que, devido ao fato de evitar desperdícios, o aumento do custo pode ser viável. O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar o custo do uso da tecnologia de irradiação de alimentos e verificar se os consumidores, quando informados sobre as vantagens na segurança alimentar, estão dispostos a pagar por este tratamento, bem como o quanto estão dispostos a pagar. A metodologia consistiu em um estudo sobre a viabilidade econômica da implantação da tecnologia de irradiação de alimentos por meio de um levantamento sistemático da literatura especializada, com o intuito de verificar o custo de implantação e o acréscimo que o produtor terá em relação ao custo da tecnologia. Também foi realizada uma pesquisa em uma Instituição de Ensino Superior sobre a predisposição do consumidor em arcar com este custo. Os resultados do estudo indicam um acréscimo, ao produtor, que pode variar de US$ 0,01 a US$ 0,25 por quilograma e também indicam que 75% dos consumidores entrevistados aceitam pagar mais pelo alimento irradiado. A partir desses resultados, concluiu-se que quanto maior o poder aquisitivo, maior a predisposição em arcar com o acréscimo ao custo do alimento irradiado. / Tese (Doutoramento) / IPEN/T / Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares - IPEN-CNEN/SP

This diploma thesis deals with the optimization of the assembly process using the problem solving of optimal combination of parts of the machine tool to meet customer requirements. The aim to solve this task is creation applications for using scientific methods of research and methods of system analysis. The proposed solution is designed for the conditions of TOS KUŘIM - OS, a.s. The basis of the research is the method of system analysis as a basic method for effective solutions to improve the production activities, processes and systems.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present results from an analysis of service processes regarding their optimization potential through mobile technologies. The analysis was performed with a company of the housing industry. Design/methodology/approach – The analysis was conducted with the aim of organizing business processes more efficiently in order to realize cost savings. Therefore, a method introduced in this paper was used. Findings – It is shown how the initial situation of the company was analyzed, which alternative process models on the basis of mobile technologies were developed and how these alternatives were economically evaluated. Furthermore, first restrictions for the software and system design were identified on the basis of one process model. Finally, it is shown how the method can be used to verify whether the adoption of mobile technologies is suitable to obtain a defined goal, and which requirements such a solution needs to fulfill. Originality/value – This paper shows practitioners how to conduct a systematic analysis of business processes regarding their optimization potential through mobile technologies.

The European Union faces challenges related to climate change, security of energy supply, and competitiveness of European industries. Energy efficiency indicators are required for monitoring and controlling the effectiveness of policies such as the recently endorsed Energy Efficiency Directive. This thesis aims at assessing whether traditionally used energy efficiency indicators capture the development of energy efficiency in the iron and steel sector. The study is based on results from two statistical methods: a top-down, i.e. Malmquist productivity index, and a bottom-up, i.e. partial least squares regression. The specific energy consumption (the indicator representing the sector within the Odyssee energy efficiency index) was scrutinised together with associated indicators based on economic production using the aforementioned statistical methods. The results demonstrated the specific energy consumption does not capture the characteristics of the value chain of steel products. Therefore, it is not sufficient for capturing the energy efficiency of iron and steel industries. Previous studies suggest using indicators based on economic production (e.g. value added) since they represent the value chain to larger degree. However, the value creation process of companies belonging to larger international groups cannot be estimated reliably. Furthermore, the trends of both types of indicators tend to be highly influenced by structural changes, veiling the actual efficiency development. Energy use statistics published by international organisations were also compared for the Swedish case. The results demonstrated that international organisations use different methodologies for allocating energy use statistics between consumption and transformation sectors. The method has significant implications on the trends observed, if based on openly available statistics. This thesis complements previous research by reviewing implications of traditional energy efficiency indicators based on company data, national statistics or openly available statistics and contributes with insights essential for future efforts towards improving energy efficiency indicators for the steel industry. / Den europeiska unionen står inför utmaningar relaterade till minskad klimatpåverkan, säkerställd energitillgång samt konkurrenskraften hos europeisk industri. Energieffektiviseringsindikatorer krävs för att övervaka och kontrollera effektiviteten hos energipolicy såsom det nyligen antagna energieffektiviseringsdirektivet. Den här avhandlingen syftar till att bedöma om traditionellt använda energieffektiviserings-indikatorer fångar järn- och stålsektorns utveckling inom energi-effektivitet. Studien är baserad på resultat från två statistiska metoder: en top-down-metod, Malmquists produktivitetsindex, och en bottom-up-metod, partiella minsta kvadratmetoden. Den specifika energikonsumtionen – indikatorn som representerar sektorn i Odyssees energieffektiviseringsindex – granskades tillsammans med andra energieffektivitetsindikatorer med hjälp av de ovan nämnda statistiska metoderna. Resultaten visade att specifik energikonsumtion inte fångar karaktären av stålprodukternas värdekedjor. Indikatorn är därför inte tillräcklig för att fånga energieffektivitet inom järn- och stål-industrier. Tidigare studier föreslår att använda indikatorer baserade på ekonomisk produktion (exempelvis förädlingsvärdet) då de representerar värdekedjan till högre grad. Förädlingsvärdet kan dock inte uppskattas tillförlitligt för företag som tillhör större internationella grupper. Trend-erna hos båda typerna av indikatorer tenderar dessutom att påverkas av strukturella förändringar, vilka döljer den riktiga effektivitetsutvecklingen. En jämförelse gjordes även av energianvändningsstatistik publicerad av olika internationella organisationer för det svenska fallet. Resultaten demonstrerade att internationella organisationer använder olika metoder för att allokera energianvändning mellan konsumtions- och omvandlings-sektorer i statistiken. Metoden påverkar observerade trender signifikant om de baseras på öppet tillgänglig statistik. Avhandlingen kompletterar tidigare forskning genom att belysa innebörden av traditionella energieffektiviseringsindikatorer baserade på företagsdata, nationell statistik eller öppet tillgänglig statistik samt bidrar med insikter som kommer att vara väsentliga för framtida satsningar i att förbättra energieffektiviseringsindikatorer för stålindustrin.

This thesis investigates the possible future pathways for the road transportation sector of Cyprus, in a time horizon from the year 2013 to 2040. The road transportation sector of Cyprus is the most energy consuming sector in the country, completely dependent on the use of diesel and gasoline. In order to comply with the renewable energy target for the transportation sector set by the European Union, Cyprus needs to transform its road transportation sector. The software MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact) is used to model the road transport sector, consisting of passenger and freight transportation. The results of the modelling provides insights into the most cost-effective pathways for Cyprus in the future. In addition to the reference scenario, four different scenarios are examined. These scenarios are focusing on different relevant aspects for Cyprus which are renewable energy, natural gas, public transport and hydrogen. The results of the study indicate that the total numbers of petroleum fueled vehicles will increase in the future, and the freight transport will be particularly difficult to transform. For the passenger transport, there will be a fuel switch from gasoline to diesel, since diesel is less expensive than gasoline. There are possibilities for increasing the numbers of alternative low-carbon emitting vehicle technologies in Cyprus. For the passenger transport, the most cost-effective low-carbon vehicle technologies are hybrid diesel electric cars, plug-in hybrid diesel electric cars and hybrid electric diesel buses. For the freight transport, the most cost-effective low-carbon vehicle technologies are natural gas heavy trycks and electric light trucks. Lastly, the results of the study indicate that it will not be possible for Cyprus to reach the renewable energy target for the transportation sector. The country has to investigate in taxation schemes for increasing the numbers of alternative vehicles as well as increasing the blends of biofuels into gasoline and diesel.

Energy poverty is defined as the lack of access of households in developing countries to modern energy sources, and their consequent reliance on solid biomass fuels for cooking. So-called “Improved stoves” have been promoted by various public and private actors since the 1970s to tackle various environmental and health challenges associated with biomass use. Impact studies of such projects are usually based on on-site surveys about the stoves’ use, and thus are extremely site-specific, and difficultly generalizable. This thesis project aims to introduce a novel approach to impact assessment of improved cooking stoves on both local energy needs and deforestation in the area. This approach will base most of its figures and assumptions on calculated energy needs rather than survey reports. This will result in a highly flexible energy model, which can be used and adapted to help decision and policy makers in their function. The area of Nyeri County, Kenya, where the author completed a one-month field study, is used throughout the thesis as a case study in order to validate the model.

The elicitation and processing of relevant information is the core of any policy decision-making process. Modelling is about making sense of the available information. Models are able to incorporate the contextual influences on policy making (e.g. political and economic environments, community sentiment…etc). Systems analysis allows quantitative, empirical testing of models that exist in the study of public policy. Simulation and visualisation techniques can help policy makers to reduce uncertainties on the possible impacts of policies. In an effort to enable adoption of the systems thinking approach to address the central problem of empirical political study, this thesis presents a framework for prescriptive policy analysis that provides decision support to: the problem definition, ex-ante impact assessment and evaluation activities carried out at the policy formulation stage of the policymaking process. We contribute a new tool for systemic modelling and simulation of public policy decision situations. It aims to facilitate the cognitive activity of representing complex mental models using system dynamics simulation modelling. Using the ’labelled causal mapping’ method, a policy-oriented problem structuring method introduced in this research, the tool bridges the gap between the user’s mental model and the explicit graphical representation in order to enable knowledge representation and system analysis. The method provides a basis for further computational decision analysis using a common policy appraisal format, a multi-criteria model with main evaluation criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, relevance, coherence and added value), linked to a set of measurable, context dependent attributes (targeted impact variables from the policy model). A web-based tool prototype has been implemented in a Node.js environment and is accessible both from a web-based graphical user interface as well as a hosted API.  Multiple demonstration and test cases, from various policy areas and different EU policymaking levels, were used in several iterations of the build-evaluate cycle. This approach lead to the different studies that make up this research. / Sense4us - Data insights for policymakers and Citizens

The aim of this study is to establish a nation-wide cost-benefit framework for aviation projection appraisal. This framework is built upon Transportation System Analysis Model developed at Virginia Tech Air Transportation System Model (TSAM). Both supply and demand characteristics and their inter-dependence are investigated. It attempts to solve the absence of supply constraints in aviation demand forecast in the literature. In addition, external costs in term of noise and emission are also considered. A national environmental impact analysis introduced by new generation small aircraft system is conducted. Two case studies are discussed to illustrate the framework. The first one is based on the GPS Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) Lower Landing Minima capability. It represents a nation-wide cost-benefit analysis with examination of both supply and demand. System-wide benefit of accessibility improvement and infrastructure cost are scrutinized at the same time. A prioritized set of candidate airports for this technology is provided as a result. The second study focuses on New York area. Benefits brought by DataComm technology are evaluated by multi-iteration simulations. DataComm is projected to reduce entry point intrail and final approach separation. The improvements are modeled at individual airport and New York airspace. Consumer surplus is estimated based on demand and delay relationship using TSAM. / Ph. D.

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