A hierarchical symbiotic framework for policy search with genetic programming (GP) is evaluated in two control-style temporal sequence learning domains. The symbiotic formulation assumes each policy takes the form of a cooperative team between multiple symbiont programs. An initial cycle of evolution establishes a diverse range of host behaviours with limited capability. The second cycle uses these initial policies as meta actions for reuse by symbiont programs. The relationship between development and ecology is explored by explicitly altering the interaction between learning agent and environment at fixed points throughout evolution. In both task domains, this developmental diversity significantly improves performance. Specifically, ecologies designed to promote good specialists in the first developmental phase and then good generalists result in much stronger organisms from the perspective of generalization ability and efficiency. Conversely, when there is no diversity in the interaction between task environment and policy learner, the resulting hierarchy is not as robust or general. The relative contribution from each cycle of evolution in the resulting hierarchical policies is measured from the perspective of multi-level selection. These multi-level policies are shown to be significantly better than the sum of contributing meta actions.

Introduction: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict considerable damage to life and property every year. A major problem is that residents often hesitate to follow evacuation orders when the early warning messages are perceived as inaccurate or uninformative. The root problem is that providing accurate early forecasts can be difficult, especially in countries with less economic and technical means. Aim: The aim of the thesis is to investigate how cyclone early warning systems can be technically improved. This means, first, identifying problems associated with the current cyclone early warning systems, and second, investigating if biologically based Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are feasible to solve some of the identified problems. Method: First, for evaluating the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems, Bangladesh was selected as study area, where a questionnaire survey and an in-depth interview were administered. Second, a review of currently operational TC track forecasting techniques was conducted to gain a better understanding of various techniques’ prediction performance, data requirements, and computational resource requirements. Third, a technique using biologically based ANNs was developed to produce TC track and intensity forecasts. Systematic testing was used to find optimal values for simulation parameters, such as feature-detector receptive field size, the mixture of unsupervised and supervised learning, and learning rate schedule. Five types of 2D data were used for training. The networks were tested on two types of novel data, to assess their generalization performance. Results: A major problem that is identified in the thesis is that the meteorologists at the Bangladesh Meteorological Department are currently not capable of providing accurate TC forecasts. This is an important contributing factor to residents’ reluctance to evacuate. To address this issue, an ANN-based TC track and intensity forecasting technique was developed that can produce early and accurate forecasts, uses freely available satellite images, and does not require extensive computational resources to run. Bidirectional connections, combined supervised and unsupervised learning, and a deep hierarchical structure assists the parallel extraction of useful features from five types of 2D data. The trained networks were tested on two types of novel data: First, tests were performed with novel data covering the end of the lifecycle of trained cyclones; for these test data, the forecasts produced by the networks were correct in 91-100% of the cases. Second, the networks were tested with data of a novel TC; in this case, the networks performed with between 30% and 45% accuracy (for intensity forecasts). Conclusions: The ANN technique developed in this thesis could, with further extensions and up-scaling, using additional types of input images of a greater number of TCs, improve the efficiency of cyclone early warning systems in countries with less economic and technical means. The thesis work also creates opportunities for further research, where biologically based ANNs can be employed for general-purpose weather forecasting, as well as for forecasting other severe weather phenomena, such as thunderstorms.

Cortical and subcortical microcircuits are continuously modified throughout life. Despite ongoing changes these networks stubbornly maintain their functions, which persist although destabilizing synaptic and nonsynaptic mechanisms should ostensibly propel them towards runaway excitation or quiescence. What dynamical phenomena exist to act together to balance such learning with information processing? What types of activity patterns do they underpin, and how do these patterns relate to our perceptual experiences? What enables learning and memory operations to occur despite such massive and constant neural reorganization? Progress towards answering many of these questions can be pursued through large-scale neuronal simulations.    In this thesis, a Hebbian learning rule for spiking neurons inspired by statistical inference is introduced. The spike-based version of the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network (BCPNN) learning rule involves changes in both synaptic strengths and intrinsic neuronal currents. The model is motivated by molecular cascades whose functional outcomes are mapped onto biological mechanisms such as Hebbian and homeostatic plasticity, neuromodulation, and intrinsic excitability. Temporally interacting memory traces enable spike-timing dependence, a stable learning regime that remains competitive, postsynaptic activity regulation, spike-based reinforcement learning and intrinsic graded persistent firing levels.    The thesis seeks to demonstrate how multiple interacting plasticity mechanisms can coordinate reinforcement, auto- and hetero-associative learning within large-scale, spiking, plastic neuronal networks. Spiking neural networks can represent information in the form of probability distributions, and a biophysical realization of Bayesian computation can help reconcile disparate experimental observations. / <p>QC 20170421</p>

The anomaly detection task is to recognize the presence of an unusual (and potentially hazardous) state within the behaviors or activities of a computer user, system, or network with respect to some model of normal behavior which may be either hard-coded or learned from observation. An anomaly detection agent faces many learning problems including learning from streams of temporal data, learning from instances of a single class, and adaptation to a dynamically changing concept. The domain is complicated by considerations of the trusted insider problem (recognizing the difference between innocuous and malicious behavior changes on the part of a trusted user). This study introduces the anomaly detection in web applications and formulates it as a machine learning task on temporal sequence data. In this study the goal is to develop a model or profile of normal working state of web application user and to detect anomalous conditions as deviations from the expected behavior patterns. We focus, here, on learning models of normality at the user behavioral level, as observed through a web application. In this study we introduce some sensors intended to function as a focus of attention unit at the lowest level of a classification hierarchy using Finite State Markov Chains and Hidden Markov Models and discuss the success of these sensors.

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