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Thesis (M.A. in Security Studies (Far East, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific))--Naval Postgraduate School, September 2009. / Thesis Advisor(s): Twomey, Christopher P. "September 2009." Description based on title screen as viewed on 5 November 2009. Author(s) subject terms: Deterrence, Japan, China, Nuclear Missile Defense. Includes bibliographical references (p. 57-66). Also available in print.

Nuclear govemment-oversight-agency (GOA) managers face increasing numbers of strategic decisions with fewer people to support their strategic decision processes. There is an increasing need to find new means of strategic decision support for nuclear GOA managers. This exploratory research contributes toward meeting this need by: (1) developing a set of contextual models of strategic decision making that link mental activities with information needs; (2) deriving a methodology to study the characteristics of the information needed by nuclear GOA managers when formulating strategic problems; and (3) demonstrating the methodology's use in drawing implications for designing decision tools. The literature reviewed in the areas of management. strategic management, decision making, decision tools, and information characteristics formed the foundation for the development of three contextual models of individual, strategic decision making. The most detailed model. the Elementary Mental Activities Model, links the mental activities of strategic decision making with types of information, providing a perspective for strategic information. An experiment was designed to engage nuclear GOA managers in realistic, strategic decision situations. Concurrent verbalizations yielded verbal protocols. Units of information used were identified according to the types of information-entities, attributes, values. relationships. and operators-in the Elementary Mental Activities Model. Unique units of information were identified during coding. "Frequency of use" and "use" by subject and by exercise were calculated for each unit of information. The information characteristics source. level of detail, class, internal/external, and relationship complexity were assigned to entities, relationships. or operators. Thirteen analyses of the data demonstrated the methodology's value for research in strategic decision processes, in strategic information, and in decision tools. All but one of the results were supported in the literature on strategic decision processes. The research led to the following, overall conclusions. 1. The Elementary Mental Activities Model represents the information use of nuclear GOA managers engaged in strategic decision processes and characterizes their strategic decision processes in terms of information use. 2. The methodology developed is useful in measuring the information use of nuclear GOA managers engaged in strategic decision processes for the purposes of determining information needs for designing decision tools. / Ph. D.

Discipline-based studies of international conflict are inadequate for a critical, normative study of the problems of the nuclear era. Peace research is an evolving discipline which attempts to form an integrated, critical analysis of problems posed by nuclear weapons. This thesis examines the response of peace research to the "scientization" of military strategy, i.e, the application of decision-theoretic and Simulation methods to nuclear policy. Debates on nuclear deterrence between nuclear strategists and peace researchers tend to get polarized in terms of an objective analysis of the "realities" of the international system versus’ moral objections to the presence of nuclear weapons. This thesis demonstrates the need for integrating STS-related issues concerned with the technical capabilities of nuclear weapons into the peace researcher's critique. Thus, by illustrating the political nature of scientific and technological claims, STS can aid the transformative agenda of peace research. / Master of Science

Thesis (M.S. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, March 2005. / Thesis Advisor(s): Peter Lavoy. Includes bibliographical references (p. 71-75). Also available online.

Thesis advisor: Donald Fishman / This paper will study three particular accidents in the nuclear industry: Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and the Fukushima Daiichi plant. These crises will be evaluated through a crisis management framework, using two main accident theories: Normal Accident Theory, and High Reliability Theory. The examination of the crises and the organizations involved will show that no matter how reliable the complex systems are, accidents are inevitable in the nuclear industry. High reliability theory expresses an ideal for complex organizations. While following the theory’s suggestions can limit some problems from occurring, acting as a mindful and reliable organization cannot prevent all disasters. The three cases presented in this paper will show that Normal Accident Theory must be accepted by the nuclear industry. Thus, governments and nuclear power plant operators must be prepared with crisis management plans in order to successfully handle emergency situations and limit damages. The first part of this paper will introduce Normal Accident Theory and High Reliability Theory. Then, after a brief overview of the basics of nuclear power, Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi will be examined in the theoretical framework, including a discussion of each event’s crisis management techniques. / Thesis (BA) — Boston College, 2012. / Submitted to: Boston College. College of Arts and Sciences. / Discipline: College Honors Program. / Discipline: Communication.

ABSTRACT IRANIAN NUCLEAR CRISIS AND ITS IMPACT ON US-IRANIAN RELATIONS BETWEEN 1953-2008 &Uuml / zmez, Sena M.S., Department of International Relations Supervisor: Assoc. Prof. Dr. &Ouml / zlem T&uuml / r December 2010, 101 pages This thesis analyzes the U.S.-Iran relations in accordance with Iranian Nuclear Crisis from a historical perspective. Analyzing the U.S.-Iran relations since 1953 until 2008, it is possible to see that as the two countries&rsquo / perceptions towards each other change, their policies towards the nuclear issue change, too. While nuclear developments were not a threat for the two states that were close allies during the Shah Era, the perceptions totally changed after the Islamic Revolution. However, even if US and Iran started to perceive each other as a threat, nuclear issue lost its importance because of Khomeini&rsquo / s approach in this period. With the September 11, 2001 attacks, the American approach has changed not only regarding the Middle East, but also regarding the nuclear issue in Iran. The Nuclear Crisis that started in 2002 by the announcement of secret nuclear centrals escalated to its peak with the election of Ahmedinejad as the president. Different historical facts that were experienced at different periods shaped perceptions of two nations towards each other. As these perceptions change towards each other, their perceptions regarding the nuclear issue and their policies have changed, too. In this study, how these two nations&rsquo / perceptions towards each other were shaped and their approaches regarding the nuclear issue influenced by the historical events will be examined and analyzed.

This thesis carefully examines the question of the effect of nuclear weapons possession on international relations through a detailed examination of all international crises between nuclear powers, as identified by the International Crisis Behavior Project (ICB). It distinguishes itself from similar studies in four key areas. First, by including the recent dyadic nuclear crises between India and Pakistan, this study significantly expands the number of cases under consideration. Next, the India-Pakistan crises provide an opportunity for a novel comparison to the US-USSR crises of the Cold War. / Third, this work is unique among studies of nuclear deterrence in its combined use of qualitative and quantitative methodology. The quantitative analysis uses ordered logit with the ICB data set on a variety of variables, discussed below, that do not lend themselves to standard regression techniques. The qualitative analysis examines whether or not nuclear weapons caused decision-makers on both sides of each crises to refrain from escalation due to fear of nuclear catastrophe. Finally, this study compares the effect of mutual nuclear weapons capability with the effects of democracy and interdependence on the level of violence in crises. / Ultimately, this thesis finds that nuclear proliferation is far less successful at preventing war among states in dyadic nuclear crises than is commonly believed. In only one of 17 crises (the Cuban Missile Crisis) is it clear that mutual possession of nuclear weapons caused leaders on both sides to eschew war. Relative to nuclear weapons possession, democracy and trade were found to be significantly more effective at limiting violence in crises and preventing war. Moreover, regimes suffering a lack of legitimacy in either the international community or among their neighbors had a significantly higher level of violence in crises. / Taken together, these findings have significant implications for public policy regarding nuclear proliferation, suggesting that the international community should work even more diligently to prevent nuclear proliferation, while working to strengthen democratic regimes, increase interstate trade, and reduce the international isolation of states such as North Korea and Iran.

The aim of this thesis was to analyze and discuss how and why the traditional agenda setting process, as it is presented by Kingdon through the concepts of problems, politics and policy, can be seen in a new light of social media (tweets) and the concept of identity, by studying the case of American president Donald Trump and investigate his use of Twitter for agenda setting in the ongoing North Korean nuclear crisis. This thesis used a case study method to study the material of 28 tweets made by Trump about North Korea. The analysis revealed that Kingdon’s traditional agenda setting theory was useful for understanding the material, however an addition of looking at the concept of identity creation which is important within social media and International Relations (IR). The concept of identity helped to understand Trump’s agenda setting in a new light, where identity creation helped to discover an ‘us-and-them’ dynamic.

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