For many in the West, North Korea is a secretive, reclusive, and enigmatic country, a rogue state that threatens the world with its nuclear program and ballistic missiles. Confronted with its numerous provocations involving nuclear tests and missile launches, however, the international community still has not formulated a coherent response. So how do we understand the crisis on the Korean peninsula that has persisted well beyond the end of the Cold War? Christoph Bluth presents an in-depth analytical account of North Korea's development from a Soviet satellite to a failed state in the post-Cold War period. He also explains South Korea's transition from a military dictatorship to a modern democracy with a thriving economy. Based on interviews with key policymakers and experts located in South Korea, Bluth's study throws light on Korean hopes for unification and the future of the U.S.-Republic of Korea alliance. U.S. policy toward North Korea has been politically controversial, with some supporting engagement and negotiations, and others calling for isolating the regime on the basis that it cannot be trusted. Neither approach will work, according to Bluth, who explains that North Korea's foreign and security policy is the result of both the internal and external threats to the survival of a regime that can no longer sustain itself. A suitable text for undergraduates as well as postgraduates, this book will be of interest to anyone with an interest in Korea, international security, and, in particular, nuclear nonproliferation.

En cas de crise nucléaire impliquant des actinides, il est nécessaire de disposer de méthodes d’analyses rapides afin d’identifier les personnes contaminées. Elles sont réalisées dans les excreta (urines et selles). Les méthodes usuelles d’analyse de ces émetteurs alpha sont performantes, mais elles sont longues et difficiles à mettre en œuvre et, de fait inadaptées à une situation de crise. Ce travail de thèse a donc consisté à développer une méthode d’analyse rapide des actinides dans l’urine par couplage entre une colonne à base de dérivés de calix[6]arène hydroxamique imprégné et un spectromètre de masse couplé à un plasma induit (ICP-MS). L’étude de la spéciation des actinides dans l’urine minéralisée a permis de mieux comprendre les réactions mises en jeu et de maîtriser leur extraction sur la colonne calix[6] arène. Un protocole a pu être élaboré, aboutissant à l’extraction simultanée des trois actinides à pH ≈ 5 puis à leur co-élution avec H3PO4 à 0,25 mol.L-1 avec des rendements de récupération moyens de 56 %, 74 % et 85 % pour U, Pu et Am respectivement. La colonne calix[6]arène a ensuite été couplée l’ICP-MS quadripolaire et les paramètres chromatographiques (diamètre de colonne, débit d’extraction et d’élution) optimisés. Ce système de couplage permet d’atteindre des limites de détection dans l’urine inférieures à 0,5 mBq.L-1 pour 238U et 243Am et inférieure à 5 mBq.L-1pour le 239Pu et 241Am, pour une durée totale d’analyse d’environ 6 heures. Ces performances ont démontré que cette méthode de couplage pourrait être utilisée en situation de crise. / In the event of a nuclear crisis, involving actinides (U, Pu, Am) it is important to have fast analysis methods available in order to identify people that could be contaminated. Usually, they are performed in urine or faeces. Even though, analytical methods used with alpha detection are reliable they are lengthy and tedious to set up. This work consisted in developing an on-line coupling method between a calix[6]arene-based chromatography column and an inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (ICP-MS). To do so, a speciation study of actinides in mineralised urine was developed to understand the chemical equilibria happening during the actinides extraction. A protocol was elaborated to extract simultaneously all three actinides at pH ≈ 5, then co-elute them with 0.25 mol.L1 H3PO4. Recovery was 56 %, 74 % and 85 % for U, Pu and Am respectively. The column was then coupled to the ICP-MS. A parameter study helped defining mineralisation duration, extraction and elution flow-rates. It was then possible to propose an on-line coupling system allowing reaching detection limits lower than 0.5 mBq.L-1 for 238U and 243Am and lower than 5 mBq.L-1 for 239Pu and 241Am, for analysis duration lower than 6 hours. These analytical performances show the interest of this technique for a use in a nuclear crisis situation.

冷戰結束後，朝鮮半島依舊是東北亞區域勢力的交會點，區內相關國家始終沒有放棄在該區的利益。在2002年北韓核武危機嚴重影響東北亞的和平與穩定。中國從中協調舉辦了「三方會談」及六輪「六方會談」，與東北亞相關國家尋求和平解決對安全的憂慮，令北韓放棄核武計劃。在會談中，中國所扮演的關鍵角色令人關注。 本論文透過回顧中國在六方會談與北韓核武危機中扮演的角色，探討中國的戰略和分析其他參與國對中國的評估。隨著中國國力的相對崛起，中國在北韓核武危機與六方會談中發揮了至關重要的影響力。中國的東北亞政策採用現實主義的路線，維護北韓政權的存續，亦同時保障中國的安全利益﹔藉由主導六方會談去穩固區域現狀，以強化區域領導者角色，符合其最大的國家利益。 / After the Cold War, the conflicts on the Korean Peninsula still remain unsolvable over half century, the related countries have not given up its interests in the Northeast Asia region. In 2002, North Korea nuclear crisis has brought up the serious security concern to the Northeast Asia. China has organized "Trilateral Talks" and "Six-Party Talks", hoping to find a peaceful solution through mediation. China had played a key role in the Talks. This paper aims to explore and analyze the role and strategies of China in Six-Party Talks. China, as host of the Six-Party alks, played a vital role and had been engaged in more active diplomacy to defuse this crisis, leading its growing influence in the Northeast Asia. China has the potential both to guarantee North Korea's security, and to impose and enforce a denuclearization agreement. The role of China in the Six-Party Talk is to eliminate the North Korea nuclear capability, stable the status quo in the Korean Peninsula and strengthen its influence in the Northeast Asia region.

北韓以核武及導彈作為對抗美國的「護身符」，也是其突破外交困境及獲取 經濟援助的 「工具」，嚴重威脅國際不擴散建制與東北亞安全。中共曾協助北韓提前突破鈽提煉技術，另北韓自巴基斯坦迂迴獲取中共濃縮鈾技術，中共也曾提供北韓蠶式反艦導彈、飛毛腿B型防空導彈(SCUD-B)與技術援助，同意北韓參與東風61型(DF-61)導彈研發工作。中共在北韓核武及導彈發展中扮演了一定的角色。 北韓分別於1993年及2002年發動核武危機，美國與相關國家籲請中共出面協助化解危機，中共則利用其在北韓核危機中的獨特地位與影響力，巧妙地將相關國家對中共的期望，轉而謀取其政經利益。在第一次北韓核武危機中，中共發揮勸和與促談作用，有助於雙方最終達成「框架協議」，就其所發揮的作用而言，勉強可稱為斡旋者及調停者。第二次北韓核危機中，在中共協調與斡旋下，假北京舉辦三邊會談與六邊會談，將危機導入和平解決的軌道。中共扮演會談的東道主、會議主席的角色、斡旋者與調停者的角色，有助於提高其國際地位的影響力。 中共正趁勢將其影響擴展到其他領域，而且結合其經濟實力來營造一個有利於自己的外交環境，利用市場和經貿關係的巨大輻射力使國際社會日益向中國靠攏，一個新的國際外交與經濟核心正在北京形成。 / North Korea has used nuclear program and missiles as “amulet” against the United States and instrument for acquiring diplomatic and economic benefits. It obviously threats to non-proliferation regime and security in north-eastern Asian. China has played a certain role in North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. North Korea achieved breakthrough of plutonium refinery with the assistance of China and acquired China’s uranium enrichment technique through Pakistan. China also provided North Korea with Silkworm anti-vessel missiles, Scud-B missiles and other technical aids. China agreed North Korea to participate in China’s development of DF-61 missiles. Two nuclear crises were provoked by North Korea in 1993 and 2002, respectively. The United States and other nations concerned urged China to help resolve the crises. China took advantage of its distinctive position and influences to gain political and economic interests. In the first North Korea nuclear crisis, China’s role can be viewed as “mediator” or “intervener” because of its influence on US and North Korea to achieve an “Agreed Framework” finally. With China’s coordination, the tri-party and sex-party talks help in Beijing led the second crisis to a peaceful resolution. China’s roles as host and chairman for the meetings, intervener and mediator have effectively demonstrated its international influence. China is exploiting any opportunities to extend its influence to other areas as well. By using its economic power, China is creating a favorable foreign environment and maintaining closer relations with other countries. A new diplomatic and economic power is forming in Beijing.

Approved for public release, distribution is unlimited / India has made a concerted effort to upgrade its ISR, precision strike, and missile defense capabilities as it competes with China and Pakistan for regional power. The Phalcon Airborne Warning and Control System, Su-30MKI fighter-bomber aircraft, and S-300PMU surface-to-air missile system are some examples of the new capabilities India is acquiring. I argue that if India continues its military modernization, Pakistan will become more insecure. The increase in the conventional military capabilities gap will likely upset the existing balance of power in South Asia, leading to a regional arms race, lowering the nuclear threshold, and increasing instability in the region. The strategic stability/tactical instability paradox that exists between two nuclear countries may lead them to engage in "small" wars. India's increasing military capabilities may encourage it to conduct a preventive strike against Pakistan. In such a climate, a regional arms race eventually may lead Pakistan to establish a "hair-trigger" nuclear posture. India's effort to achieve a significantly superior conventional military force over Pakistan paradoxically may reduce Indian security by causing greater instability, and possibly lead to nuclear war. Regional stability is enhanced to the extent that there is a rough conventional military balance between India and Pakistan. / Lieutenant, United States Navy

This paper examines different foreign policies of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) towards the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) with regards to a peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula. The paper uses the theoretical framework of Social Constructivism to analyze what impact the different foreign policies of South Korea towards North Korea have had on their relations, thus providing an understanding of what impact those foreign policies have had on the peaceful reunification process of the Korean Peninsula. The paper will also look at the First Korean Nuclear Crisis, the Second Korean Nuclear Crisis, the ROKS Cheonan sinking and the shelling of Yeonpyeong, and with the help from the theoretical framework of Social Constructivism, analyze what impact those incidents have had on South Korea’s foreign policy and relations with North Korea, thus providing an understanding what impact those incidents have had on the peaceful reunification process of the Korean Peninsula.

北韓研發核武與彈道飛彈對東北亞區域安全造成嚴重衝擊，自1994年以來的北韓核武危機至今仍未獲得解決。在2002年北韓承認持續發展核武後，中共在核武危機中擔任調解人的角色，分別舉行了「三方會談」以及六輪「六方會談」。中共希望透過多邊主義中的談判方式，和平地解決北韓核武發展問題，並提高自身在朝鮮半島議題上以及國際社會中的影響力。但北韓至今仍未放棄核武發展，且從2006年以來一連串的核子試爆、長程火箭與飛彈試射使東北亞安全情勢極度惡化。 平心而論，中共目前是世界上對北韓影響力最大的國家。除了因為韓戰所建立的傳統「血盟關係」，以及在1961年兩國之間所締結之「中朝友好合作互助條約」之外，近年來，中共也提供北韓大量的經濟援助，包括糧食、重油與其他的戰略性物資。但北韓自2006年以來的彈道飛彈試射與地下核武試爆，確實已經對中共的國家安全造成嚴重威脅。北韓研發核武的問題若不解決，將會動搖現行「核不擴散」機制的權威與可信度，甚至造成東北亞區域各國，例如日本、韓國，甚至台灣競相研發核武的可能性，進而引發區域軍備競賽與核武擴散，對中共的國家安全造成損害。其次為北韓研發核武若引起美國的軍事先制攻擊，其難民問題對中共東北邊境所造成的威脅。最後則是北韓的核武研發與常規軍力對中共所造成的直接威脅。此外，北韓研發核武也對中共在於1996年出台之「新安全觀」造成衝擊，尤其中共官方在未來評估東北亞區域安全問題時，勢必將對「新安全觀」作一定程度的修正。在中共的綜合國力以及在亞太地區影響力不斷提升的前提下，中共將藉由北韓這根國際政治權力槓桿，與美國共同形塑未來朝鮮半島的全新權力格局。本研究即欲探討做為北韓傳統支持者與核武危機調停者的中共，如何處理北韓研發核武對其國家安全所造成之威脅。 關鍵詞：中共、朝鮮半島、北韓核武危機、新安全觀、彈道飛彈、軍備競賽 / North Korea developed nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles pose a serious impact on Northeast Asia, since 1994 the North Korean nuclear crisis has yet to be resolved. North Korea admitted in 2002, continued to develop nuclear weapons, PRC in the nuclear crisis as a mediator, were held “tripartite talks” and “six-party talks.”PRC hopes of multilateralism in the negotiation and peaceful resolution of North Korea's nuclear issue and improve their own issues on the Korean peninsula and the international community's influence. But North Korea has yet to give up nuclear weapons development and since 2006 a series of nuclear tests, long-range rocket and ballistic missile launch to worsen the security situation in Northeast Asia. In all fairness, the PRC is currently the world's greatest influence on North Korea's state. Apart from the tradition established by the Korean War "clan relations", as well as between the two countries in 1961, concluded the “Sino-Korean friendship and cooperation treaty”, the recent years, and that China provides North Korea substantial economic aid, including food, heavy oil and other strategic materials. But North Korea since 2006 ballistic missile and nuclear test pose a serious threat to national security of PRC. This study anticipates exploring the trend and change of the Korean Peninsula Policy and New Security Concept of PRC. The main research goal: to discuss North Korea`s traditional supporter and mediator, PRC, and how to handle North Korea's development of nuclear weapons posed to their own national security threats. Keyword: PRC, Korean Peninsula, North Korea Nuclear Crisis, New Security Concept, Ballistic Missiles, the Arms Race.

在2002年朝核危機引發後，中共居中折衝尊俎，舉辦「三方會談」及數輪「六方會談」，使朝核危機相關諸國得以齊聚北京協商處理朝核問題，揭開朝鮮半島歷史之新頁。中共雖非當事國，然涉入與影響之程度均較前次危機為深，其政策及角色皆有研究之必要。「新安全觀」提出迄今已近十年，做為中共國際關係的「理論」，直接指導其外交政策，其意涵著重於與冷戰思維的差異，以「互信、互利、平等、協作」及對「非傳統安全」的關照為其理論核心，在實踐上則以多邊安全合作為最要，而近歲於朝鮮半島發展之多邊安全合作正為「六方會談」。是故，本論文冀望能從「新安全觀」意涵在「六方會談」的實踐與挑戰，探析中共朝鮮半島政策之走向。主要的研究目的包括：（一）詮釋中共「新安全觀」的動機與意涵；（二）具體呈現中共與各國在朝核問題的立場及互動作為；（三）評估「新安全觀」在「六方會談」中的實踐與挑戰，並分析其朝鮮半島政策取向。 / 「新安全觀」在「六方會談」中體現於以下幾項作為：（一）穿梭籌辦歷輪會談；（二）戮力於會談制度化；（三）保障參與各方權益。然而，「新安全觀」同時也面臨許多挑戰，最值得關切者有冷戰時期所遺留下來的軍事同盟、朝核危機當事兩國的立場分歧、「中國威脅論」的陰影等。大體上，中共對於朝核問題的政策立場有三：（一）朝鮮半島非核化；（二）區域的和平與穩定；（三）以外交談判解決。此外，還強調在解決朝核問題的同時，必須照顧到北韓的生存利益，而為因應諸多挑戰，中共的朝鮮半島政策可能將朝以下方向發展：（一）擴大多邊安全合作；（二）鞏固大國共同利益；（三）強化南韓合作關係；（四）引導北韓經濟改革。因此，就現階段政策取向而言，中共應會並用多邊與雙邊外交途徑，在朝鮮半島持續勸和促談，扮演多重建設性角色，而「新安全觀」若要被徹底落實，將取決於中共的國家利益能否持續與「新安全觀」所訴諸的理念相結合。 / This study anticipates exploring the trend of the Korean Peninsula Policy of China by understanding the implementation and challenge of New Security Concept (NSC) in the Six-Party Talks. The main research goal includes: to interpret the motivation and meaning of NSC, to present China’s position and behavior with other nations in terms of 2002 North Korea nuclear issue, and to evaluate the practice and challenge of NSC in Six-Party Talks. In the past rounds, NSC has been embodied in holding meetings, endeavoring to institutionalize, and ensuring the right and interest of all participants. Even so, NSC has been confronted some challenge in the meantime; embracing the military alliances remained from the cold war era, the gap between North Korea and United States, and so-called “China Threat.” / Briefly speaking, China has three positions in 2002 North Korea Nuclear Crisis: Denuclearization, peace and stability, and solutions through the negotiation in Korean Peninsula. China also emphasizes that every decision dealing with the crisis should be given consideration to North Korea’s interest. It is highly likely to blossom into what follows for the sake of replying these challenges: To extend multilateral corporation, to consolidate the common interest with other powers, to strengthen the relation with South Korea, and to guide North Korea to reform its economy. Therefore, China might use multilateral and bilateral approach simultaneously; continue to mediate and to play a multiple role in the constructive way. The further implementation of NSC depends on the extent of combining with China’s national interest and the ideal of NSC.

在歐洲、北美、東南亞等地區皆有定期、頻繁的區域對話，對話內容廣泛，不再是過去國家安全、區域安全傳統定義下的「安全對話」。然而區域對話風氣的盛行，在東北亞地區卻嗅不到一絲絲這樣的氣息。東北亞地區由於本身的歷史特殊性與地緣政治的特性，在國際關係上始終是各國利益的錯綜複雜的區域。 東北亞地區國際政治衝突點主要為：領土糾紛、北韓核武危機、中日關係、日人綁架事件。北韓核武危機背後的動機主要是冷戰為結束之前，美國在南韓部署戰術核武瞄準北韓，北韓基於安全考量，於是發展核武計畫，另一原因則是針對日本，北韓視日本為安全威脅，基於歷史因素，北韓將其核武計畫背後目標對準日本。 冷戰結束後的新安全環境，應該要以區域安全考量為核心，東北亞地區主要的安全形勢是美國仍是東北亞地區重要的安全主導者，同時美日聯盟是區域內重要的安全安排，隨者中國的經濟持續發展，中國將在東北亞地區扮演重要角色。多邊協商與合作是解決東北亞地區安全問題最有效的辦法，定期舉多邊對話更可增加行為者之間的了解與互信，多邊主義可以解決區域內危機。東北亞地區多邊合作經驗豐富，雖然多半是非正式的二軌多邊對話經驗，不過非正式的對話多邊機制剛好符合亞太地區的特色，差異性大的亞太國家，或者是在冷戰痕跡深刻的東北亞地區，都以應養成對話習慣，針對區域內的危機熱點例如北韓問題、中日歷史爭議、中美關係、中日東海油源紛爭、日俄領土爭議等問題，都可以藉著多邊對話機制建立信心措施。 目前正在進行中的六邊會談正好替東北亞國家提供一個良好的基礎，雖然目前六邊會談是以解決北韓核武危機為主要，不過在六邊會談裡參與成員對等，並且六邊會談也沒有抹煞美國雙邊同盟的功能，日後東北亞國家應可以以六邊會談為基礎，討論更多區域內安全議題，促進東北亞地區的對話。東北亞地區多邊對話機制的發展可以融入冷戰結束後的新興安全觀念。如此一來反而有利既存的六邊會談進一步發展。 / There is EU as a multilateral forum in Europe. There is ASEAN in Southeast Asia for Asia countries to understand policies of each country and get better transparency. The international relations between Northeast Asia countries have always been complicated and uncertain. However, there is no multilateral dialogue in Northeast Asia. To study the multilateral dialogue mechanism, we must pay attention to Multilateralism. And because of the unique security situation in Northeast Asia after Cold War, we have also to take the cooperative security, common security and comprehensive security into consideration. Thus, we can discuss the possibility of developing a multilateral dialogue mechanism in Northeast Asia. A multilateral dialogue mechanism is a dialoguing forum that three or more countries cooperate with each other under some principles, with habits of practicing, without agenda limits, no participation limit, in order to solve security problems and reduce confrontations. The second North Korea nuclear crisis happened in 2002. The first Six-Party Talks began in 2003 and has hold for four times until now. Six-Party Talks can be viewed as a foundation of multilateral mechanism in Northeast Asia, despite there are still some shortcomings. As long as Six-Party Talks keeps meeting, it is an achievement of dialogue for Northeast Asia countries. Six-Party Talks makes it possible that solving the crisis in a peaceful way and taking the diplomatic way to engage with DPRK. The Japan-US Alliance is the key factor to influence the international politics in Northeast Asia. Basically, the bilateral relations between US and Asia Pacific countries have become a “wheel”. The hub of USA is a key factor of developing a multilateral mechanism or not. To develop a multilateral mechanism in Northeast Asia must cooperate with US and not against its interests in Pacific Asia. Also, Northeast Asia countries have to build their mutual confidence and interests dependence.

中、美關係一直以來都是國際的焦點問題且持續發展變化。自1972年中、美關係開始正常化以來，兩國的關係經常是在進展與停滯、合作與對抗中來回折衝，中、美之間在許多方面存在著矛盾，又在眾多領域裡有著共同利益。冷戰結束後，美國對中國的政策進行了大幅度的調整，新的矛盾與利益也逐漸凸顯出來。諸如人權問題、貿易不平衡問題和臺灣問題等等，皆是當前中、美鬥爭的焦點，但在安全、經濟貿易與科技文化教育和非傳統安全領域等方面又都有著共同的利益。在這種利益與矛盾交織的狀態下決定了雙邊以合作取代對抗的政策基調，也是中、美間在現今國際趨勢下必須的戰略選擇。 朝鮮半島位處陸權國家的心臟地帶與海權國家的邊緣地帶，對陸權國家而言，是連接海洋建立海權的重要跳板，對海權國家來說，則是向陸地擴張勢力的戰略捷徑，而此區域更是中國、俄羅斯、日本、南韓、北韓等權力競逐的主戰場，再加上美國在此經營布局已久，複雜的國際關係在此合縱連橫，時而欣欣向榮充滿希望，時又戰雲密布一觸即發。自朝鮮半島爆發第一、二次朝核危機後朝鮮半島的局勢更加詭譎多變，而朝核議題便如同一顆未爆彈時刻牽動中、美間最敏感的神經，金正日去世後，更增朝鮮半島的不確定性；在此嚴峻的挑戰下，中、美兩國的態度更是動輒得咎。 本文的主要目的於分析中美兩國自冷戰後迄今對朝鮮半島的政策比較，並針對外交、經貿、戰略佈署等方面作一全面探討，並以權力平衡角度分析在中、美共管亞洲的戰略結構下對南、北韓的影響，期能為未來欲從事相關研究的人提供參考。 / Relationship between the U.S. and China has always been one of the most focused issues internationally and it continues to develop and changes its shape as time goes by. Since 1972 both countries normalize their relationships, the U.S. and China had been going back and forth of deciding whether being collaboration or opposition, fits their benefits in a dynamic field. While the cold war ends, United States had made an adjustment by a wide margin on its policy to China, for instance, the Human Rights, Trade Imbalance, and Taiwan are the causes explain how China and the U.S. are constantly in conflict. However, correlates with Security, Economical trading, Technology, Culture, Education and Non-Traditional Land Security, the U.S. and China are aware of the importance of each other. All of the consequences, contradiction, and benefits led China and the U.S. to work together instead of being in battles which can be described “the strategic choices” 2 giants have made in the current international trend. The Korea peninsula locates in the heart of continental countries and at the edge of sea countries. For continentals, the peninsula can be the elevator of establishing its sea-power; and for the ocean authorities, owning the peninsula is one of the fastest strategic shortcut of expanding its power to the land. For decades, the area had been the battlefield for China, Russia, Japan, South Korea and North Korea, and adding the glimpse of the U.S, which makes the peninsula one of the most comprehensive international involvements in the world. Since the 1st and the 2nd North Korean nuclear crisis occurred, the discussion of nuclear weapons in North Korea tangles the sensitive nerves between the U.S and China. As Kim Chong Il dies and leaving all the questions left to rest of the world, the uncertainty of the peninsula had increased; under rigorous challenges in the international community, the attitudes of China and the U.S. can entirely influence the globe. The essay mainly focuses on the analysis of the comparative policies to the Korean Peninsula in between China and the U.S after the Cold War, as well as the probing into Diplomacy, Trade, Deployment for a entire scan, in order to understand the angel of power of balance to mutually manage Asia’s strategic structures and how it can be effective to North and South Korea. The article hopes can provide critical information for scholars in future to attempt related research on sphere in such matter.