Performing health surveys in developing countries and humanitarian emergencies can be challenging work because the resources in these settings are often quite limited and information needs to be gathered quickly. The Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) sampling method provides one way of selecting subjects for a survey. It involves having field workers proceed on a random walk guided by a path of nearest household neighbours until they have met their quota for interviews. Due to its simplicity, the EPI sampling method has been utilized by many surveys. However, some concerns have been raised over the quality of estimates resulting from such samples because of possible selection bias inherent to the sampling procedure. We present an algorithm for obtaining the probability of selecting a household from a cluster under several variations of the EPI sampling plan. These probabilities are used to assess the sampling plans and compute estimator properties. In addition to the typical estimator for a proportion, we also investigate the Horvitz-Thompson (HT) estimator, an estimator that assigns weights to individual responses. We conduct our study on computer-generated populations having different settlement types, different prevalence rates for the characteristic of interest and different spatial distributions of the characteristic of interest. Our results indicate that within a cluster, selection probabilities can vary largely from household to household. The largest probability was over 10 times greater than the smallest probability in 78% of the scenarios that were tested. Despite this, the properties of the estimator with equally weighted observations (EQW) were similar to what would be expected from simple random sampling (SRS) given that cases of the characteristic of interest were evenly distributed throughout the cluster area. When this was not true, we found absolute biases as large as 0.20. While the HT estimator was always unbiased, the trade off was a substantial increase in the variability of the estimator where the design effect relative to SRS reached a high of 92. Overall, the HT estimator did not perform better than the EQW estimator under EPI sampling, and it involves calculations that may be difficult to do for actual surveys. Although we recommend continuing to use the EQW estimator, caution should be taken when cases of the characteristic of interest are potentially concentrated in certain regions of the cluster. In these situations, alternative sampling methods should be sought. / Thesis / Master of Science (MSc)

This diploma thesis is devoted to the sampling strategies in forestry. It describes their theoretical aspects and their applications on a real landscape. The sampling methods in forestry are of particular importance in forest inven- tory. The aim of sampling methods is to estimate population characteristics based on the knowledge of sample. Two basic approaches can be distinguished according to the size of population, we speak about discrete or continuous population. Several types of sampling designs and corresponding estimators of target values are described for both approaches. Besides estimates of po- pulation total or average, we mention the formulas for computing variance of these estimates and the methods for their estimation for different sampling designs. The thesis also contains the comparison of studied methods based on computer simulations.

Šiame magistro diplominiame darbe, naudojant skirtingas atstumo funkcijas ir kalibravimo lygtis, išvedami Horvico ir Tompsono įvertinio dispersijos įvertinių svoriai. Tokiu būdu, sukonstruojami aštuoni nauji Horvico ir Tompsono įvertinio dispersijos įvertiniai. Naudojant Teiloro ištiesinimo metodą pateikiamos sukonstruotų įvertinių apytikslės dispersijos ir pasiūlyti šių dispersijų įvertiniai. Be to, darbe atliekamas matematinis modeliavimas, kurio eksperimentai atlikti naudojant darbo autorės sukurtas MATLAB programas. Matematinio modeliavimo tikslas - naujus įvertinius palyginti tarpusavyje ir su standartiniu įvertiniu. Tiriama, kaip įvertinių tikslumas priklauso nuo pasirinkto imties plano. / In this master's graduation work, the weights of estimators of Horvitz & Thompson estimator of variance are defined by using some different distance function and calibration equations. In such a way, the new eight estimators of Horvitz & Thompson estimator of variance were constructed. Using the Taylor linearization method the approximate variances of the constructed estimators were derived. The estimators of the variances of these estimators are proposed as well. Also we perform here a mathematical modeling using MATLAB program. The aim of this mathematical modeling is to compare the new estimators with each other and with a standard one. We analyze also how the accuracy of estimators depends of selected sampling design.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:51:25Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissFA.pdf: 692673 bytes, checksum: c17603e3bc9d4ee95fd60f2c08410cec (MD5) Previous issue date: 2003-12-01 / Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais / This research have two main goals: i) the Production Planning and Control (PPC) top-authors identification according to an effective population (EF)with 592 international researchers; and ii) assessing the gap between theory and practice on the PPC area at São Carlos region. To determine the item (i) it was done a research through internet with an initial sample of 205 researchers, as not all e-mails worked, the effective sample (ES) was reduced to 168 researchers. The obtained result was estimated for the corrected effective population (CEP), that corresponds to the number of people whose e-mails worked, through the Horwitz-Thompson estimator. At the end of this stage we obtained a list containing the top-authors of the area and their main works as well as we accomplished analysis involving variables like the region, the approach and the number of years the respondents are active on PPC research. To accomplish the item (ii) we collected data from a group of São Carlos academics and from 11 important companies of the region. We lifted up several causes of the existence of this gap in the area and we also suggested several initiatives to decrease it. / Esta pesquisa possuiu dois objetivos principais: i) identificação dos principais autores do PCP na visão de uma população efetiva (PE) de 592 pesquisadores internacionais; e ii) análise da lacuna entre a teoria e a prática da área de PCP na região de São Carlos. Para determinar o item (i) foi realizada uma pesquisa via internet com uma amostra inicial de 205 pesquisadores, e que no decorrer da pesquisa foi reduzida a 168 pessoas (aqueles cujos e-mails funcionavam); chamamos este grupo de amostra efetiva (AE). O resultado obtido foi estimado para a população efetiva corrigida (PEc), que corresponde ao número de pessoas da PE cujos e-mails funcionavam, por meio do estimador de Horwitz-Thompson. Ao final desta etapa obtivemos uma lista contendo os principais autores da área e suas principais obras bem como realizamos análises envolvendo variáveis como a região, a abordagem e o tempo de pesquisa dos entrevistados. Para realizar o item (ii) levantamos dados de um grupo de acadêmicos da região de São Carlos e de onze empresas de grande porte da mesma região. Foram levantadas várias causas da existência desta lacuna na região e também foram sugeridas várias iniciativas para diminuí-la.

Statistical aspects of random mosaics have not been heretofore given enough attention. This thesis deals with the derivation of estimators and statistical tests in a three-dimensional Poisson-Voronoi mosaic model. The first chapter compiles elementary results in the fields of point processes, random closed sets and particle processes. These are used in a second chapter to deduce geometric properties of random mosaics. The third chapter introduces the statistical research itself, estimators and model tests. Horvitz- Thompson estimator is introduced in order to correct statistics calculated on a reduced sample. Own results are tried in a computer simulation and compared to existing research in the last chapter. Mainly, the quality of estimators and the power of proposed tests is observed. 1

Baigiamajame magistro darbe nagrinėjamas nuoseklusis ėmimas, priklausantis pozicinių imties planų su fiksuota rikiuojančio skirstinio forma klasei. Šio imties plano atveju gautos imties plano ir populiacijos elementų priklausymo imčiai tikimybių analizinės išraiškos. Remiantis entropija, nuoseklusis ėmimas yra lyginamas su tai pačiai klasei priklausančiais Pareto ir nuosekliuoju Puasono ėmimu. Nagrinėjamas ir dviejų fazių imties planas sluoksniavimui, taikant pirmosios fazės nuoseklųjį ėmimą. Baigtinėje populiacijoje apibrėžto tyrimo kintamojo reikšmių suma vertinama kvazi Horvico ir Tompsono įvertiniu. Modeliuojant tiriama, ar sumažėja įvertinio dispersija dėl antrosios fazės sluoksniavimo. Šiame tyrime naudojami Lietuvos gyventojų užimtumo statistinio tyrimo duomenys, vertinamas užimtųjų ir bedarbių skaičius, nedarbo lygis. / The successive sampling design, belonging to the class of order sampling designs with fixed order distribution shape, is studied. Analytical expressions for design probability and element inclusion probability are obtained. Entropy is used to compare successive, Pareto and sequential Poisson sampling designs, belonging to the same class. Two-phase sampling design for stratification with the first-phase order sampling is also studied. The total of the study variable values, defined on a finite population, is estimated by a quasi-Horwitz-Thompson estimator. The behaviour of the variance estimator influenced by the second phase stratification is investigated by simulation. The study is carried out for estimates of the number of employed, unemployed and the unemployment rate using the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey data.

The main objective in sampling is to select a sample from a population in order to estimate some unknown population parameter, usually a total or a mean of some interesting variable. When the units in the population do not have the same probability of being included in a sample, it is called unequal probability sampling. The inclusion probabilities are usually chosen to be proportional to some auxiliary variable that is known for all units in the population. When unequal probability sampling is applicable, it generally gives much better estimates than sampling with equal probabilities. This thesis consists of six papers that treat unequal probability sampling from a finite population of units. A random sample is selected according to some specified random mechanism called the sampling design. For unequal probability sampling there exist many different sampling designs. The choice of sampling design is important since it determines the properties of the estimator that is used. The main focus of this thesis is on evaluating and comparing different designs. Often it is preferable to select samples of a fixed size and hence the focus is on such designs. It is also important that a design has a simple and efficient implementation in order to be used in practice by statisticians. Some effort has been made to improve the implementation of some designs. In Paper II, two new implementations are presented for the Sampford design. In general a sampling design should also have a high level of randomization. A measure of the level of randomization is entropy. In Paper IV, eight designs are compared with respect to their entropy. A design called adjusted conditional Poisson has maximum entropy, but it is shown that several other designs are very close in terms of entropy. A specific situation called real time sampling is treated in Paper III, where a new design called correlated Poisson sampling is evaluated. In real time sampling the units pass the sampler one by one. Since each unit only passes once, the sampler must directly decide for each unit whether or not it should be sampled. The correlated Poisson design is shown to have much better properties than traditional methods such as Poisson sampling and systematic sampling.

Les enquêtes par sondage sont utiles pour estimer des caractéristiques d'une populationtelles que le total ou la moyenne. Cette thèse s'intéresse à l'étude detechniques permettant de prendre en compte un grand nombre de variables auxiliairespour l'estimation d'un total.Le premier chapitre rappelle quelques définitions et propriétés utiles pour lasuite du manuscrit : l'estimateur de Horvitz-Thompson, qui est présenté commeun estimateur n'utilisant pas l'information auxiliaire ainsi que les techniques decalage qui permettent de modifier les poids de sondage de facon à prendre encompte l'information auxiliaire en restituant exactement dans l'échantillon leurstotaux sur la population.Le deuxième chapitre, qui est une partie d'un article de synthèse accepté pourpublication, présente les méthodes de régression ridge comme un remède possibleau problème de colinéarité des variables auxiliaires, et donc de mauvais conditionnement.Nous étudions les points de vue "model-based" et "model-assisted" dela ridge regression. Cette technique qui fournit de meilleurs résultats en termed'erreur quadratique en comparaison avec les moindres carrés ordinaires peutégalement s'interpréter comme un calage pénalisé. Des simulations permettentd'illustrer l'intérêt de cette technique par compar[a]ison avec l'estimateur de Horvitz-Thompson.Le chapitre trois présente une autre manière de traiter les problèmes de colinéaritévia une réduction de la dimension basée sur les composantes principales. Nousétudions la régression sur composantes principales dans le contexte des sondages.Nous explorons également le calage sur les moments d'ordre deux des composantesprincipales ainsi que le calage partiel et le calage sur les composantes principalesestimées. Une illustration sur des données de l'entreprise Médiamétrie permet deconfirmer l'intérêt des ces techniques basées sur la réduction de la dimension pourl'estimation d'un total en présence d'un grand nombre de variables auxiliaires / Survey sampling techniques are quite useful in a way to estimate population parameterssuch as the population total when the large dimensional auxiliary data setis available. This thesis deals with the estimation of population total in presenceof ill-conditioned large data set.In the first chapter, we give some basic definitions that will be used in thelater chapters. The Horvitz-Thompson estimator is defined as an estimator whichdoes not use auxiliary variables. Along with, calibration technique is defined toincorporate the auxiliary variables for sake of improvement in the estimation ofpopulation totals for a fixed sample size.The second chapter is a part of a review article about ridge regression estimationas a remedy for the multicollinearity. We give a detailed review ofthe model-based, design-based and model-assisted scenarios for ridge estimation.These estimates give improved results in terms of MSE compared to the leastsquared estimates. Penalized calibration is also defined under survey sampling asan equivalent estimation technique to the ridge regression in the classical statisticscase. Simulation results confirm the improved estimation compared to theHorvitz-Thompson estimator.Another solution to the ill-conditioned large auxiliary data is given in terms ofprincipal components analysis in chapter three. Principal component regression isdefined and its use in survey sampling is explored. Some new types of principalcomponent calibration techniques are proposed such as calibration on the secondmoment of principal component variables, partial principal component calibrationand estimated principal component calibration to estimate a population total. Applicationof these techniques on real data advocates the use of these data reductiontechniques for the improved estimation of population totals

Dans cette thèse, nous nous intéressons à l'estimation de la synchrone de consommation électrique (courbe moyenne). Etant donné que les variables étudiées sont fonctionnelles et que les capacités de stockage sont limitées et les coûts de transmission élevés, nous nous sommes intéressés à des méthodes d'estimation par sondage, alternatives intéressantes aux techniques de compression du signal. Nous étendons au cadre fonctionnel des méthodes d'estimation qui prennent en compte l'information auxiliaire disponible afin d'améliorer la précision de l'estimateur de Horvitz-Thompson de la courbe moyenne de consommation électrique. La première méthode fait intervenir l'information auxiliaire au niveau de l'estimation, la courbe moyenne est estimée à l'aide d'un estimateur basé sur un modèle de régression fonctionnelle. La deuxième l'utilise au niveau du plan de sondage, nous utilisons un plan à probabilités inégales à forte entropie puis l'estimateur de Horvitz-Thompson fonctionnel. Une estimation de la fonction de covariance est donnée par l'extension au cadre fonctionnel de l'approximation de la covariance donnée par Hájek. Nous justifions de manière rigoureuse leur utilisation par une étude asymptotique. Pour chacune de ces méthodes, nous donnons, sous de faibles hypothèses sur les probabilités d'inclusion et sur la régularité des trajectoires, les propriétés de convergence de l'estimateur de la courbe moyenne ainsi que de sa fonction de covariance. Nous établissons également un théorème central limite fonctionnel. Afin de contrôler la qualité de nos estimateurs, nous comparons deux méthodes de construction de bande de confiance sur un jeu de données de courbes de charge réelles. La première repose sur la simulation de processus gaussiens. Une justification asymptotique de cette méthode sera donnée pour chacun des estimateurs proposés. La deuxième utilise des techniques de bootstrap qui ont été adaptées afin de tenir compte du caractère fonctionnel des données / In this thesis, we are interested in estimating the mean electricity consumption curve. Since the study variable is functional and storage capacities are limited or transmission cost are high survey sampling techniques are interesting alternatives to signal compression techniques. We extend, in this functional framework, estimation methods that take into account available auxiliary information and that can improve the accuracy of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of the mean trajectory. The first approach uses the auxiliary information at the estimation stage, the mean curve is estimated using model-assisted estimators with functional linear regression models. The second method involves the auxiliary information at the sampling stage, considering πps (unequal probability) sampling designs and the functional Horvitz-Thompson estimator. Under conditions on the entropy of the sampling design the covariance function of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator can be estimated with the Hájek approximation extended to the functional framework. For each method, we show, under weak hypotheses on the sampling design and the regularity of the trajectories, some asymptotic properties of the estimator of the mean curve and of its covariance function. We also establish a functional central limit theorem.Next, we compare two methods that can be used to build confidence bands. The first one is based on simulations of Gaussian processes and is assessed rigorously. The second one uses bootstrap techniques in a finite population framework which have been adapted to take into account the functional nature of the data