京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(農学) / 甲第23941号 / 農博第2490号 / 新制||農||1090(附属図書館) / 学位論文||R4||N5376(農学部図書室) / 京都大学大学院農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻 / (主査)准教授 三谷 羊平, 教授 伊藤 順一, 教授 梅津 千恵子 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Agricultural Science / Kyoto University / DGAM

This doctoral thesis consists of four papers. Strategic behavior across gender: A comparison of female and male expert chess players analyzes gender differences in risk behavior in chess. We use a panel data set with 1.4 million games. Most notably, the data contains an objective measure of individual playing skill. We find that women are more risk averse and that men choose riskier strategies when playing against female opponents even though this reduces their winning probability. Gender differences in time preference and inconsistency among expert chess players presents findings on gender differences in time preference and inconsistency in chess. Impatience is estimated by measuring preferences for game durations while inconsistency by exploiting the 40th move time control. The results reveal that men are more impatient while women are more time inconsistent. Moreover, the difference in impatience increases with expertise while the difference in inconsistency decreases. Beauty queens and battling knights: Risk taking and attractiveness in chess explores the relationship between attractiveness and risk taking in chess. We examine whether people use riskier strategies when playing with attractive opponents and whether this affects performance. Our results suggest that male, but not female, chess players choose significantly riskier strategies when playing against an attractive female opponent, although this does not improve their performance. Strategic Learning in Repeated Chess Games, examines if chess players in repeated games with the same opponent, learn about the opponent’s type and adapt future strategies accordingly. It also shows how matching background characteristics affect the choice of strategy. The findings show that chess players learn about the opponent’s type. Players with similar background characteristics coordinate better than players of different gender or nationality but this difference decreases as the players update their beliefs. / At the time of doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows:Paper 2: Manuscript. Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript.

Research macroeconomists have witnessed remarkable methodological developments in mathematical, statistical, and computational tools during the last two decades. The three essays in this dissertation took advantage of these advances to analyze important macroeconomic issues. The first essay, “ Habit Formation, Adjustments Costs, and International Business Cycle Puzzles” analyzes the extent to which incorporating habit formation and adjustment costs in investment in a one-good two-country general equilibrium model would help overcome some of the international business cycle puzzles. Unlike standard results in the literature, the model generates persistent, cyclical adjustment paths in response to shocks. It also yields positive cross-country correlations in consumption, employment, investment, and output. Cross-country correlations in output are higher than the ones in consumption. This is qualitatively consistent with the stylized facts. These results are particularly striking given the predicted negative correlations in investment, employment, and output that are typically found in the literature. The second essay, “Comparison Utility, Endogenous Time Preference, and Economic Growth,” uses World War II as a natural experiment to analyze the degree to which a model where consumers' preferences exhibit comparison-based utility and endogenous discounting is able to improve upon existing models in mimicking the transitional dynamics of an economy after a shock that destroys part of its capital stock. The model outperforms existing ones in replicating the behavior of the saving rate (both on impact and along the transient paths) after this historical event. This result brings additional support to the endogenous rate of time preference being a crucial element in growth models. The last essay, “Monetary Policy under Fear of Floating: Modeling the Dominican Economy,” presents a small scale macroeconomic model for a country (Dominican Republic) characterized by a strong presence of fear of floating (reluctance to have a flexible exchange rate regime) in the conduct of monetary policy. The dynamic responses of this economy to external shocks that are of interest for monetary policy purposes are analyzed under two alternative interest rate policy rules: One being the standard Taylor rule and another that responds explicitly to deviations of the exchange rate with respect to its long-term trend.

Bakgrund. E-handel ökar ständigt, och med det även frakt av ehandelsvaror. Frakten som skrivs om i den här studien syftar till den frakt som sker mellan en återförsäljare och en slutkonsument. Denna är i texten kallad last-mile delivery. Denna är identifierad som mycket kostnadsbärande för återförsäljare och därför har ansträngningar gjorts för att ta reda på vad som driver konsumentpreferenser vid frakt av ehandelsvaror. För att bredda det här fältet och den nuvarande kunskapen inom område har den här studien introducerat tidspreferensteori som underlag och adderat betalningsfördröjning som attribut vid last-mile delivery för att se vilken effekt detta har på preferenser vid fraktval. Syfte. Syftet med den här studien är att ta reda på hur en fördröjd betalning kan påverka preferenserna för olika last-mile delivery-alternativ. Överlag syftar också studien till att bredda kunskapen inom området. Detta görs alltså med introduktionen av tidspreferensteori till området. Metod. Studien är en experimentstudie med en ansluten enkät. Enkäten gjordes i tre utföranden och skickades ut i tre distinkta experimentgrupper. Därefter testades datan med ett icke-parametriskt proportionstest för att se om det fanns någon signifikant mängd svar som stödjer att en fördröjd betalning påverkar konsumentens val av last-mile delivery-alternativ. Resultat. Resultaten av studien visar att det inte finns någon koppling mellan en fördröjd betalning och ändrade konsumentbeteenden i fraktpreferenser. Överlag så valdes fraktalternativet med lägst frakt. Detta är något som går igen i flera tidigare studier där man kommit fram till att fraktkostnad och leveranshastighet är de två mest betydelsefulla aspekterna av frakten. Det enda scenariot som visade någon förändring i preferens var då produkten vid köpet var en dyr sådan. Huruvida preferensskiftet går att tillskriva den fördröjda betalningen förblir oklart, men inte osannolikt. Slutsatser. Slutsatsen till studien blir att trots tidspreferens och fördröjd betalning användes i studien så gav de inget mervärde. Resultatet blev i linje med tidigare resultat. Att tidspreferensteorin inte höll för fraktpreferenserna kan haft att göra med studiedesignen. En framtida studie hade kunnat göra ett mer ingående arbete och fokusera ännu mer på tidspreferensen för att hitta nya resultat / Background. E-commerce is ever expanding, and with it, so is last-mile delivery. Last-mile delivery is the last part of any delivery from a retailer or etailer (online retailer) to a consumer. Last-mile delivery is one of the most costly parts of the supply chain for many etailers and as such efforts have been made to understand what drives preferences for last-mile delivery. To broaden this field, this study will introduce time preference theory to the last-mile delivery and examine if delayed payment of an online purchase has any effect on the last-mile deliver preferences.  Objectives. The objectives of this study are to examine if delayed payment of online purchases has any effect on the last-mile delivery preference for consumers, as well as broaden the knowledge on last-mile delivery preferences in general. This is done with the inclusion of time preference theory as an underlying theory.  Methods. The study is carried out through the use of an experiment study with an experiment survey. The survey was made into three different versions, distributed to three different experiment groups. The data was then tested with a non-parametric proportion test with varying values of proportion to see whether there was any significant proportion of the replies that were in favor of delay of payment having any effect on the consumer preference.   Results. The results of the study showed that consumers generally choose the last-mile delivery option with the lowest delivery fee. This is in line with previous findings which concluded that delivery fee and delivery speed are the two most important factors for consumers. The only case in which consumers indicated that there was any effect of the payment delay was in the case of an expensive product. Even then it is hard to rule out that it was not something else that brought this result.   Conclusions. The concluding findings of the study is that while time preference was added as an attribute for last-mile delivery, it had little to no effect. This may have been because of the study design of this study. For future research on the topic, examining time preference in a greater depth may give different findings from this study.

In this series of essays, we study the influence of weight and group size in the sequential multi-battle contest with laboratory experiences (Chapter 2 and Chapter 3). We then develop an empirical method to model perceptual present and time inconsistency (Chapter 4). Chapter 2 examines how the weight and the ordered weights in battles affect the behavior in sequential multi-battle contests with an experiment. We find robustly that the weight of the current battle consistently influences contestants' efforts. Additionally, we discover the math-point-oriented behavior despite differences in history. In other words, the weight effect is expressed in two ways: influencing the effort of the current battle and transferring a contest to the next battle with a designated intensity. Chapter 3 explores the group size effect and how the contest success functions influence the group size effect in sequential multi-battle contests with an experiment. We capture the negative group size effect on the leaders' efforts, participation and dropout rates; contrarily, the positive effect on the non-leaders' efforts. Compared to the Tullock lottery, the all-pay auction intensifies the group size effect of the high effort in the initial battle. It also enlarges the observed group size effects of the effort gaps between the leaders and the non-leaders. Chapter 4 develops the quasi-hyperbolic discounting model into the general beta-delta model to parametrically detect and measure the inconsistency in revealed time preference. This method empirically classifies time preference into four categories, i.e., time consistent, present bias, future bias, and mixed inconsistent. Then we applied this method to the convex time budget data of seven experiments, including 3670 subjects. We discover empirical evidence supporting perceptual differences in the present-future threshold. Traditional present bias models may interpret the time preference imprecisely. / Doctor of Philosophy / Competition and Time are two essential aspects of life. Many decisions are made in a competitive environment. Some other decisions are made when time serves as a critical factor. We divide this dissertation into two parts. In the first part, we study strategic behavior in competitions. Specifically, we examine how (1) the importance of each round (weight), (2) the number of competitors, and (3) the ambiguity of the rule affect the result of a multi-round competition. In the second part, we study people's subjective understanding of time, generally the personal beliefs and preferences of the present and future. In part one (Chapter 2 and Chapter 3), first, we find people are very responsive about the importance of a round in a multi-round competition. When a round is more important, people make more effort in such round. People are also sensible about the competition's current status (leading, behind, or tied) rather than the history. Second, at the beginning of a competition, we find an increase in the participation rate when fewer competitors exist. Suppose there are more competitors; the leading position players compete more brutally; on the contrary, the non-leading players are discouraged more. Third, people spend more energy when the rule is less ambiguous in a multi-round competition. In part two (Chapter 4), We find a very diversified subjective belief in the word "present." The concept of "now" lasts longer than we conventionally thought. When the subjective "present'' is captured at the individual level, we find the immediate now is not necessarily the best way to represent the "average present'' for the population.

One of the factors significantly influencing our daily decisions is the so-called cognitive depletion.The theory of cognitive depletion postulates the existence of a limited mental resource that is necessary for self-regulation. If the resource is diminished by a task involving self-control, achievement in subsequent self-control task will be impaired. This project examines the effect of cognitive depletion on decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task designed to simulate real-life decision making involving gains and losses. Further, a possible effect of moderating factors that could be affected by cognitive depletion and consequently influence decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task -- risk preference and impulsivity -- is investigated. Dual-process theories postulate there are two systems involved in decision-making: faster, intuitive, emotional System 1 and slower, deliberative, rational System 2. It was found that cognitive depletion leads to enhancement of System 1. As advantageous decisions in the Iowa Gambling Task are closely related to emotional reactions -- domain of System 1 -- it was hypothesized that cognitive depletion will lead to not worse, or possibly even better results in depleted subjects. A controlled laboratory experiment was conducted involving 39 subjects in total. No difference was found in average desicions of depleted and non-depleted subjects in the Iowa Gambling Task, supporting the hypothesis. Further, short-term increase in impulsivity caused by cognitive depletion was very probably moderating choices in the IGT, leading to worse overall performance. Regarding risk preferences, we found that non-depleted subjects were generally more risk seeking in losses context, while depleted subjects exhibited rather loss aversion. This change in risk behaviors due to cognitive depletion very probably did not mediate choices in the Iowa Gambling Task.

Comment peut-on concilier le respect des droits à la liberté des membres des générations futures et présentes ? Agir en faveur des premiers ne doit pas se faire aux dépens des seconds. Selon nous, la garantie pour tous de pouvoir développer et concevoir une conception spécifique de la vie bonne suppose de privilégier l'objectif d'une justice sociale globale dans le temps présent pour ainsi transmettre à la postérité un monde plus juste. Nous indiquons en premier lieu en quoi les générations qui se succèdent sur Terre ont des devoirs envers celles qui les suivront dans le temps, mais également pourquoi nos actes ne reflètent pas la reconnaissance de tels devoirs. Nous nous interrogeons ensuite sur le contenu du monde à transmettre en conformité avec ces devoirs. Il incombe aux générations de préserver autant que possible l'environnement naturel et d'édifier un environnement politique et social suffisant. Cela requiert la constitution d'une épargne intergénérationnelle au cours d'une phase limitée, suivie d'une phase de croisière dans laquelle l'accumulation doit être stoppée. Mais les efforts pour cette épargne et les ressources générées par celle-ci sont à répartir équitablement au sein et entre les générations : ce point est l'objet de notre troisième partie. Nous montrons que les efforts demandés à chacun au sein de la phase d'accumulation devraient dépendre de l'environnement dont disposent les individus, tandis que les ressources produites sont à redistribuer en priorité aux contemporains les plus démunis. Une telle préférence sociale pour le présent ne va pas à l'encontre des droits des individus futurs : elle permet au contraire de limiter la perpétuation, de génération en génération, des inégalités intragénérationnelles et de favoriser le respect de leurs droits par les individus qui vivent dans le temps présent. / How can we reconcile the respect to liberty rights of members of future and current generations? Act in favour of the former should not be at the expense of the latter. According to us, the guaranty for all to be able to develop and conceive a specific conception of the good life involves favouring the objective of global social justice in the present time, and so transmitting to posterity a fairer world. We show first how the succeeding generations on Earth have duties to those who follow in time, but also why our acts do not reflect the recognition of such duties. Then we wonder about the content of the World to transmit in compliance with these duties. Generations bear the responsibility to preserve as much as possible the natural environment and to edify a sufficient political and social environment. This requires the constitution of an intergenerational savings during a limited phase, followed by a steady-state phase in which the accumulation must be stopped. But efforts to the savings and resources generated by it have to be distributed fairly within and between generations: this is the subject of our third part. We show that efforts required to everyone during the accumulation phase should depend on the environment available to individuals, while produced resources have to be redistributed primarily to the most disadvantaged contemporaries. Such a social time preference does not run counter the rights of future individuals: it allows instead to limit the perpetuation of intra-generational inequalities from generation to generation and to promote the respect of their rights by individuals living at the present time.

The present study examines General Deterrence Theory (GDT) and its "parent," Rational Choice Theory (RCT), in an information security setting, assessing the behavioral intent to violate organizational policy under varying levels of certainty, severity and celerity of negative sanction. Also assessed is the individual computer user's time orientation, as measured by the Consideration of Future Consequences (CFC) instrument (Strathman et. al, 1994). How does rational consideration of violation rewards influence the impact of sanctions on individuals? How does time orientation impact intent to violate security policy? How do these operate in an IS context? These questions are examined by assessing the responses of university students (N = 443) to experimental manipulations of sanctions and rewards. Answering vignettes with the factorial survey method, intent to violate is assessed in a setting of Internet piracy of electronic textbooks while being monitored by computer security systems. Findings show that, although traditional GDT variables and reward impact intent to violate, CFC does not cause the hypothesized moderating effect on these variables. However, post-hoc analysis reveals a direct effect of time orientation on behavioral intent, as well as a weak moderating effect opposite of the hypotheses, indicating increased time orientation positively moderates, rather than negatively moderates, the impact of reward on intent to violate. Implications for theory and practice, and future research directions, are discussed.