[pt] O presente trabalho busca analisar se um choque de notícia falsa que afetou os preços das ações da construtora europeia Vinci S.A., em novembro de 2016, teve algum componente de persistência na dissipação. Para tal, são construídos três modelos contrafactuais para traçar as trajetórias alternativas de preço que as ações da Vinci teriam percorrido na ausência do choque. A premissa básica do presente estudo é que os preços das ações são compostos por fundamento e por ruído (noise), sendo um choque de notícia falsa uma espécie de fenômeno natural em finanças, que torna possível separar o ruído dos fundamentos que definem o preço. Quando a informação falsa é absorvida como verdadeira, todos os agentes se tornam propagadores de ruído, ao passo que quando o ruído é revelado, o mercado deveria voltar a operar apenas com base nos fundamentos. Os resultados aqui encontrados apontam para uma rigidez temporária na trajetória de retorno do preço das ações ao seu preço fundamental após o choque, o que contraria a hipótese da incorporação imediata da informação ao preço proposta por algumas teorias de mercados eficientes. Os modelos aqui propostos mostraram-se bem especificados e as suas conclusões se corroboraram, conferindo robustez ao resultado. / [en] The present paper seeks to analyze if a fake news shock that affected the stock prices of the European construction company Vinci S.A., in November 2016, had any component of persistence in its dissipation. The paper constructs three contractual models to trace alternative trajectories for the price that Vinci stocks would have followed in the absence of the shock.The basic premise of this paper is that asset prices are composed both by noise and fundamental, and a fake news shock is a sort of natural phenomena in finance that makes it possible to identify the noise and the fundamental that compose prices. When false information is taken as true, all agents become temporally noise traders and when the noise is revealed, the market comes back to operate based on fundamental. The models point to a temporary stickiness of noise during the return of the prices to their fundamentals after the shock, contradicting the assumption of immediate incorporation of information to the price proposed by some Efficient Market Theories. The models have demonstrated to be well specified and they all have pointed to the same conclusions, conferring robustness to the results.

På 1980-talet handlade en grupp, som kallades för The Turtle Traders, med två trendföljande handelsstrategier helt baserade på teknisk analys på ett stort antal finansmarknader. De två handelsstrategierna byggde på mekaniska regler för köp- respektive säljbeslut och riskhantering, men även regler för vilka marknader som var tillåtna att handla på. Gruppen var mycket framgångsrik under flera år och medlemmarnas avkastningar översteg marknadernas avkastningar med råge. Den svaga varianten av den effektiva marknadshypotesen säger att detta ska vara omöjligt på effektiva marknader. På en effektiv marknad är det enligt hypotesen istället bättre att följa en buy-and-hold strategi. Hur kommer det sig att The Turtle Traders lyckades? Var det bara tur att de två trendföljande strategierna, som genererade köp- och säljbesluten, gav väldigt höga avkastningar under några år på 1980-talet? Eller är inte marknaderna effektiva? Inom forskningen råder det idag en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen och huruvida marknaderna är effektiva. Olika vetenskapliga studier presenterar tester som både stöder och förkastar hypotesen. Syftet med det här examensarbetet är att visa huruvida de två trendföljande strategierna fortfarande är vinstgivande och därmed användbara strategier på dagens finansmarknader. Syftet är också att jämföra de två strategierna med buy-and-hold strategin på olika marknaderna och därmed bidra med ytterligare insikter till den numera alltmer ifrågasättande diskussionen kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen, med speciellt fokus på den svaga varianten. För att få fram vilka avkastningar de två trendföljande strategierna ger på dagens marknader konstrueras inom ramen för detta examensarbete ett datorprogram som simulerar de köp- och säljbeslut som skulle tas med hjälp av de mekaniska regler som de två trendföljande strategierna bygger på. Undersökningen i examensarbetet ger, precis som många andra undersökningar, en oklar bild kring den effektiva marknadshypotesen. Hälften av de finansmarknader som undersöks tycks vara ineffektiva och hälften effektiva, enligt den svaga varianten av hypotesen. Undersökningen visar även att de två trendföljande strategierna inte är så pass vinstgivande att de kan rekommenderas att använda på dagens finansmarknader. / During the 1980s a group called The Turtle Traders used two trend following trading strategies, based on technical analysis, to trade a large number of financial markets. The two trading strategies used mechanical rules to make buy and sell decisions and to manage risk. The rules also specified which markets to trade. The group was very successful during several years in the 1980s and the returns the members of the group generated, using the two trading strategies, widely surpassed the returns of the markets. The weak form of the efficient market hypothesis states that this should be impossible on markets that are efficient. On efficient markets it is instead better to follow a buy-and-hold strategy. How come that The Turtle Traders succeeded? Was is just luck that the two trend following strategies, that generated the buy and sell decisions, resulted in such high returns during a few years in the 1980s? Or are the markets inefficient? Current research gives an unclear picture regarding the efficient market hypothesis and whether or not the markets are efficient. Different studies present results that both support and reject the hypothesis. The purpose of this bachelor thesis is to show whether or not the two trend following strategies still are profitable and therefor useful strategies on the financial markets of today. The purpose is also to compare the two strategies with the buy-and-hold strategy on different markets and in this way contribute with more insights to the ongoing and nowadays often increasingly questioning discussion regarding the efficient market hypothesis, with special focus on the weak form of the hypothesis. To get the returns of the two trend following strategies on the financial markets of today a computer program is constructed as part of this bachelor thesis. This computer program simulates the buy and sell decisions that would have been taken by the mechanical rules the two trend following strategies are built upon. The study done in this bachelor thesis gives, just as many other studies, an unclear picture of the efficient market hypothesis. Half of the markets that are studied in this thesis seem to be inefficient and half seem to be efficient, according to the weak form of the hypothesis. The study also shows that none of the two trend following strategies are profitable enough that they can be recommended to be used on the financial markets of today.

Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Submitted by Nara Lays Domingues Viana Oliveira (naradv) on 2015-08-29T14:35:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tonidandel.pdf: 937131 bytes, checksum: 8e7451c0e897bad1c49e3351c8eb5f4e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-08-29T14:35:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 tonidandel.pdf: 937131 bytes, checksum: 8e7451c0e897bad1c49e3351c8eb5f4e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Nenhuma / O presente trabalho verifica se as operações realizadas por insider trader com ações da própria empresa auferem rentabilidade superior à média do mercado. Nesse sentido é importante identificar possíveis movimentos de insiders traders, bem como evidências de retornos anormais. Isso poderia ajudar os órgãos reguladores a serem mais efetivos na coibição desse tipo de operação. Para tanto, foram coletadas 38.141 operações, obtidas em 9.945 formulários de 167 empresas com liquidez em bolsa superior a 1% que foram enviados mensalmente à CVM no período de janeiro de 2006 a dezembro de 2011. O método utilizado para determinar o retorno anormal médio acumulado foi o estudo de eventos, definido a partir do modelo de Campbell, Lo e Mackinlay (1997). Para a concepção da amostra final restaram 109 empresas das quais foram encontradas 665 operações que se destacaram por apresentarem volumes muito superiores à média de negociações realizadas pelos insiders das respectivas empresas. Destas 665 operações, 474 (71,28%) apresentaram retornos anormais. Sendo assim, foram encontradas 281 operações de venda e 193 operações de compra realizadas por insiders que diagnosticaram retornos anormais. As ações vendidas por insiders apresentaram retorno anormal médio de -3,73%, -7,03% e -10,12% após 30, 90 e 180 dias da data da venda, o que sugere que os insiders detinham alguma informação desconhecida do mercado e se anteciparam à futura queda vendendo suas ações. Já as operações de compras realizadas pelos insiders traders foram seguidas de alta das ações, o que sugere que a utilização de informações antecipadas em relação ao mercado para a realização de compras com retornos anormais positivos que foram respectivamente de +5,49%, +8,03% e +10,12%, após 30, 90 e 180 dias. Em seguida, foram efetuados vários procedimentos para avaliar a rentabilidade obtida pelos insiders de acordo com o tipo de controle, origem do capital, setor de atividade, segmento de governança corporativa, tipo de operações, insiders por operações e tamanho da empresa. Estas análises e procedimentos apenas confirmaram os retornos encontrados no computo geral quanto a presença de insider trading no mercado acionário brasileiro. / This study verifies that the operations performed by insider trading with shares of the company earn higher returns than the market average. In this sense it is important to identify possible movements Insider traders, as well as evidence of abnormal returns. This could help regulators to be more effective in the deterrence of such operations. To this end, we collected 38 141 operations, obtained in 9945 Forms 167 companies with liquidity in the stock exceeds 1% who were sent to CVM monthly from January 2006 to December 2011. The method used to determine the average abnormal return was the study of events, defined from the model of Campbell, Lo and Mackinlay (1997). For the design of the final sample remaining 109 companies of which 665 were found to operations stood out for having much higher than average volumes of transactions made by insiders of their respective companies. Of these 665 operations, 474 (71.28%) had abnormal returns. Thus, we found 281 transactions of sale and purchase of 193 operations performed by insiders who diagnosed abnormal returns. The shares sold by insiders showed average abnormal return of -3.73%, -7.03% and -10.12% after 30, 90 and 180 days from the date of sale, which suggests that insiders held some information unknown to the market and the anticipated future selling their shares fall. Since the operations of purchases by insiders traders were followed by high shares, which suggests that the use of advance information about the market to make purchases with positive abnormal returns that were respectively +5.49%, +8 , and 03% +10.12% after 30, 90 and 180 days. Then, several procedures were performed to assess the profitability achieved by insiders according to the control type, source of capital, industry, corporate governance segment, type of transactions, transactions by insiders and company size. These tests and procedures only confirmed the returns found in the general computation as the presence of insider trading in the Brazilian stock market.

Australian wool traders and researchers have little knowledge of the incomplete adoption of the price risk management strategies that are available to stabilise wool producers’ incomes. Auction is by far the most popular method of selling wool in Australia with an adoption rate of about 85%. However this system exposes users (wool producers and buyers alike) to highly volatile prices and non-specific knowledge of supply and demand. Furthermore, it places differentiated wool types in the same commodity market as mass produced, homogeneous wool types. In order to address these issues, a mixed-method research design was used to develop and test a behavioural model of wool producers’ intentions to adopt the use of forward contracts; a selling method alternative to auction. In the simplest terms, a forward contract is a binding agreement between a buyer and a seller that stipulates price, quality, quantity and delivery date of a product. The behavioural model developed for this research was based on the Theory of Reasoned Action, Theory of Planned Behaviour and Diffusion of Innovations as well as some farm-level constructs that were raised in focus groups with Western Australian wool producers. The focus groups were pivotal in adding a unique, farm-level decision-making dimension to the behavioural model by the inclusion of various factors external and internal to the farm business. Based on the behavioural model, 28 hypotheses were developed and tested. Data was collected via a telephone survey of 305 Western Australian wool producers and analysis was conducted using the Partial Least Squares (PLS) approach to Structural Equation Modelling (SEM). / A key finding of this analysis, contrary to the initial indications of focus group discussions, is that the current selling and marketing structure of the Australian wool industry, including the dominance of the auction system, is an important but not a limiting factor associated with the adoption of forward contracts for the sale of raw wool. Similarly, some other factors internal to the farm business, such as past experiences with selling wool, level of dependence on wool to earn a living and commitment to producing wool, were also found not to limit the adoption of forward contracts. The main factor limiting the adoption of forward contracts was identified as the wool producers’ perceptions of risk and uncertainty. Farmers’ perceptions of risk and uncertainty and their perceptions and attitudes in general are known to be important influences on farmers’ adoption decisions. While the majority of the hypotheses tested within the model were explained by the data, further data were collected to solve the issues associated with why farmers perceive forward contracting as being subject to risk and uncertainty. Additional research was conducted in the form of four case studies with Western Australian wool producers who had varying commitments to using forward contacts. Results showed that profit-raising, the whole farm system as a basis for decision making, the mass media and social pressures are important behavioural factors that are limiting the adoption of forward contracts by Western Australian wool producers. Overall, the results of the study indicate that the current structure of the Australian wool industry and various factors internal to the farm business account for farmers’ attitudes towards the use of forward contracts to sell their wool. / More importantly, from an agribusiness point of view, it is the perceived risk associated with price that principally accounts for the incomplete adoption of forward contracts in the wool industry. The conclusions of this study resulted in the development of new research questions that focus on the study’s theoretical framework, the impact of supply chain dynamics on the adoption of forward contracts and the empirical testing of additional behavioural determinants such as trust, habit and social cohesion. Based on the results of this study, several contributions have been made to the literature and agribusiness. The study showed that variables from the Diffusion of Innovations model played a significant part in this research. However, the more substantial finding was that the Theory of Reasoned Action is likely to be a superior theoretical framework for modelling wool producers’ adoption behaviours related to forward contracts than the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This claim is based on the finding that perceived behavioural controls are not a significant factor in the intention of wool producers to adopt the use of forward contracts. In terms of the contributions to agribusiness, information and extension initiatives that explain and demonstrate the benefits of forward contracts may be necessary if farmers’ perceptions of the riskiness and uncertainty surrounding these contracts are to be altered.

Various studies of asset markets have shown that traders are capable of learning and transmitting information through prices in many situations. In this paper we replace human traders with intelligent software agents in a series of simulated markets. Using these simple learning agents, we are able to replicate several features of the experiments with human subjects, regarding (1) dissemination of information from informed to uninformed traders, and (2) aggregation of information spread over different traders.

Thesis (M.A.)--Victoria University of Wellington, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references.

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Mémoire numérisé par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal

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